Progress 10/01/05 to 09/30/08
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Activities: A: Develop historical data sets for model simulation which include: annual historical land-use and land-cover data from 1900 to 2005, forest plantation area and age distribution data, daily historical climate from 1900 to 2005(precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation, humidity, maximum and minimum temperature) and atmospheric composition data (CO2, ozone and nitrogen deposition), basic non-step data (soil texture, potential vegetation map, soil pH, soil depth); B: Collect historical economical development data from 1970 to 2005 and develop future land-use and land-cover data from 2000 to 2030; C: Improvement on an econometric model to predict the future land-use and land-cover data sets; D: Improve the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) model. We finally developed a new model (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model) to replace TEM as simulation model in this project; D: Model applications in Alabama and model evaluation against field measurement data and regional inventory data; E: Data organization and analysis; F: Publication preparation. Events: With the support and data and model results from this project, we attended several conference meetings including: 2007 Water Resources Conferences in Auburn University, Alabama Alternative Energy Conference in 2006, USDA National Research Initiative Agricultural Markets and Trade Project Directors' Meeting in 2006, 2008 Southern Forest Economics Workshop in 2008, and Southeastern Society of American Foresters (SESAF) annual meeting in 2006. Products: A: Gridded input data sets: Remote sensing-derived products: Forest harvest and disturbance data from 1984 to 2007 in Alabama (Classified Landsat TM/ETM data sets, 30 m * 30 m resolution. Spatial data sets for driving regional biogeochemical models: Daily climate data (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, cloudiness; relative humidity, total precipitation) at 8 km * 8 km resolution from 1900 to 2005; Soil texture and other chemical and physical characteristics data sets; Natural (potential) vegetation map; Historical land-use and land-cover and land management in Alabama during last centuries; Future land-use and land-cover maps from 2000-2030; Nitrogen depositions at annually step; Daily tropospheric ozone data sets; Forest plantation distribution maps from 1970 to 2005 B:Model outputs: Monthly and annual carbon fluxes (including gross primary production, net primary production, net ecosystem production, ecosystem respiration, and crop yield), carbon and nitrogen pools (including soil, vegetation, and litter) during 1900-2030, from both TEM and DLEM simulations. The results from this project were presented and disseminated to the communities of interest through conference meetings, workshops and public communications. PARTICIPANTS: Principal Investigator: Hanqin Tian Co-Investigators: Daowei Zhang Hua Chen Graduate Students and Post Docs: Post Doc: Mingliang Liu PhD student: Guangsheng Chen Yanshu Li TARGET AUDIENCES: The public in Alabama, the policy makers and land managers PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
Land-use and land-cover (LUCC) types in Alabama showed an enormous temporal and spatial change in Alabama. Based on historical and future ecological and economical data, we generated the future (2000-2030) LUCC data for Alabama. All the three scenarios indicated a decreasing trend in agricultural land area and an increasing trend in urban area, while forest area will increase under the third scenario but decrease under other two scenarios; A new model (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM) was developed to replace TEM to simulate LUCC and forest management on carbon sequestration in Alabama; Plant biomass has been increased during 1900 to 2005 but soil carbon decreased. The total ecosystem carbon in Alabama decreased slightly during the study period under LUCC only scenario. However, total ecosystem carbon storage increased, which means that change in other environmental factors has induced a large carbon sink in Alabama; Carbon sequestration rate is different for different biomes. Area change in hardwood forest, cropland and grassland induced a net carbon source, while area change in softwood forest is a net carbon sink under LUCC only scenario. However, hardwood forest was a net carbon sink if considered the regrowth effect, which means forest regrowth is a very important contributor to the carbon sink; The model results were evaluated against both field- and region-level inventory data and simulation results from previous studies. DLEM results showed a very close match with those data, which means that our estimations are reliable. The DLEM model improved our capacity to study the effects and interaction of multiple environmental stresses including climate extreme such as drought, increasing atmospheric CO2, ozone pollution, N deposition, LUCC and disturbances. By evaluating DLEM simulations against field measurement data and regional inventory data and improved input data, we improve the accuracy of assessing regional carbon budget for Alabama. Our results will inform the public that LUCC, land management and disturbance have and will greatly affected the carbon sequestration in Alabama from 1900 to 2030. We found that Alabama was a slight carbon source under LUCC only scenario while a big carbon sink under the changes of all-combined environmental factors, which provides strong information that land-use change from forest to cropland and built-up land will reduce the carbon sink capacity in Alabama while other environmental factors positively contribute to the carbon sink in Alabama. Biomass in Alabama was found to increase from 1900 to 2000 and continue to increase until 2030, which will make the public aware of that Alabama can and will play an more important role in providing wood products, biofuel and other biomass-related welfare for Alabama. We successfully predicted the change of LUCC types in Alabama from present to 2030, which information is useful for policy makers and land managers in Alabama to take appropriate measures to maintain or restore our ecosystems. This project has also promoted us to apply other funds.
Publications
- Chen, G.S. and H. Tian. 2007. Effect of land use/land cover change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Journal of Plant Ecology 31(2):189-204.
- Chen, H., Tian, H.Q., Liu, M.L., Melillo, J., Pan, S.F., and Zhang, C. 2006. Effects of land-use change on terrestrial carbon dynamics in the southern USA. Journal of Environmental Quality 35: 1533-1547.
- Lu C., H.Q. Tian and Y. Huang. 2007. Ecological consequences of nitrogen deposition. Journal of Plant Ecology 31(2): 205-218.
- Nagubadi, R.V. and D. Zhang. 2007a. Urbanization and Timberland Use Change in the Southern United States. Pp. 211-224 in Dube, Yves and Schmithusen, Franz (eds) Cross-Sector Impacts on Forestry. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
- Nagubadi, R.V. and Zhang, D. 2007b. Urbanization and Timberland Use by Ownership in Georgia: A multinomial Logit Analysis. Pp 85-89 in D. Laband (ed.) Proceedings of Emerging Issues Along Urban/Rural Interfaces: Linking Science and Society. March 13-16. Atlanta, GA.
- Nagubadi, R.V. and D. Zhang. 2005. Determinants of timberland use by ownership and forest type in Alabama and Georgia. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 37(1):173-186.
- Tian, H.Q., S. Wan and K. Ma. 2007. Global Change Ecology: Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems. Journal of Plant Ecology 31(2): 173-174.
- Tian, H.Q., X.F. Xu, et al. 2008. Forecasting and Assessing Large-scale and Long-term Impacts of Global Environmental Change on Terrestrial Ecosystems in the United States and China. In: Real World Ecology: Large-Scale and Long-Term Case Studies and Methods. Miao, et al., eds. Springer.
- Xu, X., H.Q. Tian and S. Wan. 2007. Climate warming impacts on terrestrial ecosystem production. Journal of Plant Ecology 31(2): 175-188.
- Zhang, D. and R.V. Nagubadi. 2005. The Influence of urbanization on timberland use by forest type in the Southern United States. Forest Policy and Economics, 7(5):721-731.
- Chen, G.S. and Tian, H.Q. 2006. Impacts of multiple environmental changes on carbon sequestration in the southeastern US. Southeastern Society of American Foresters (SESAF) annual meeting in 2006.
- Nagubadi, R.V., and Zhang, D. 2008. Timberland Ownership in the South. In Proceedings of 2008 Southern Forest Economics Workshop. March 9-11. Savannah, GA.
- Tian, H.Q. and ESRA group members. 2006. Forecasting Alabama Biomass: A Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) for Alternative Energy Solutions. Alabama Alternative Energy Conference in 2006.
- Tian, H.Q., G.S. Chen, M.L. Liu, C. Zhang, D.S. Lu and G. Lockaby. 2007. Alabama's Water Resources: Natural and Anthropogenic Disturbances, poster submitted to 2007 Water Resources Conferences, Auburn, AL, June 14-15, 2007.
- Zhang, D. 2006. Market, Urbanization, and Forest/Agricultural Land Use Change in the Southern United States. USDA National Research Initiative Agricultural Markets and Trade Project Directors' Meeting. Washington, DC. June 15-16.
- Li, Y.S. 2008. Market, Policy, and Land Use Change in the U.S. South. PhD dissertation. Auburn University. Zhang, C. 2008. From carbon Source to Carbon Sink - Response of the southern Terrestrial Ecosystem to Multiple Stresses in the Past 110 years. PhD dissertation. Auburn University.
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Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07
Outputs
In the second project year, we have focused our research on the following: 1) refine and develop data sets for input of both land use and ecosystem models, 2) improve the land use model, 3) develop and improve the dynamic land ecosystem model, and 4) perform various simulations to estimate carbon sequestration induced by land use and land cover change. By incorporating additional data collected from field observations and census records, we have refined our data sets of climate, soil, and historical land cover across the state of Alabama that developed in the FY 2006. In addition, we collected more TM and MODIS images for the Alabama state. We are also working on the extraction of pine forest and other major forest types with the MODIS and TM images, in order to timely and accurately map the forest distribution and monitoring their changes. These data derived from satellite images will be used as an input in the ecosystem model for estimation of carbon source and sink.
We developed an empirical multinomial logit model, and we have applied and validated it in the southern United States (e.g., Nagubadi and Zhang, 2007a, b). We are now developing future land use change maps from 2005 to 2030 and we will get it done during the following a couple of months. The scenarios of land-use change derived from the land use model will be used as input of ecosystem model for estimating effects of land use change on carbon source and sink across the state of Alabama. To better address the ecosystem processes that control carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, we have developed a new model called Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM). DLEM includes five core components: 1) biophysics, 2) plant physiology, 3) soil biogeochemistry, 4) dynamic vegetation, and 5) land use and management. The DLEM model has been verified against field data from the southeastern US. To more accurately estimate forest carbon sequestration in Alabama, we also developed a management
submodel to simulate impacts of intensive forest management (harvest, thinning, and fertilization) on carbon sequestration in the past fiscal year. The forest age structure and wood products induced by land use change and forest management are dynamically tracked. This submodel is being incorporated into DLEM, and we will use it to track the historical and future forest age structure, allocation of harvested wood to different product pools (1-year, 20-year and 40-year half-life cycle), landfills and biofuel, decay of wood products and landfills, and mitigation of CO2 emission by replacing fossil fuel with wood products in Alabama. In the next project year, we plan to use the DLEM model in conjunction with spatial data sets of both historical and future land use for estimating to what extent land use history has affected carbon dynamics in the past, and how future land-use change might influence carbon sequestration in the state of Alabama.
Impacts
Enable the citizens in Alabama to know how land use has changed in the past in Alabama and how much CO2 has sequestrated by terrestrial ecosystems in Alabama, which will help policy makers to make future plans.
Publications
- Chen, G.S. and H. Tian. 2007. Effect of land use/land cover change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Journal of Plant Ecology 31(2):189-204.
- Lu C., H.Q. Tian and Y. Huang. 2007. Ecological consequences of nitrogen deposition. Journal of Plant Ecology 31(2): 205-218.
- Nagubadi, R.V. and Zhang, D. 2007b. Urbanization and Timberland Use by Ownership in Georgia: A multinomial Logit Analysis. Pp 85-89 in D. Laband (ed.) Proceedings of Emerging Issues Along Urban/Rural Interfaces: Linking Science and Society. March 13-16. Atlanta, GA.
- Nagubadi, R.V. and D. Zhang. 2007a. Urbanization and Timberland Use Change in the Southern United States. Pp. 211-224 in Dube, Yves and Schmithusen, Franz (eds) Cross-Sector Impacts on Forestry. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
- Ren W. and H.Q. Tian. 2007. Air pollution and terrestrial ecosystem production. Journal of Plant Ecology 31(2): 219-230.
- Tian, H.Q., G.S. Chen, M.L. Liu, C. Zhang, D.S. Lu and G. Lockaby, Alabama's Water Resources: Natural and Anthropogenic Disturbances, poster submitted to 2007 Water Resources Conferences, Auburn, AL, June 14-15, 2007.
- Tian, H.Q., S. Wan and K. Ma. 2007. Global Change Ecology: Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems.Journal of Plant Ecology 31(2): 173-174.
- Tian, H.Q., X. Xu and X. Song. 2007. Drought impacts on terrestrial primary productivity. Journal of Plant Ecology 31(2): 231-241.
- Zhang, C, H.Q. Tian, A. Chappelka, W. Ren, M. Liu and G. Chen (2007). Impacts of climatic and atmospheric changes on carbon dynamics in the Great Smoky Mountain National Park. Environmental Pollution 149 (2007) 336-347.
- Xu, X., H.Q. Tian and S. Wan. 2007. Climate warming impacts on terrestrial ecosystem production. Journal of Plant Ecology 31(2): 175-188.
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Progress 10/01/05 to 09/30/06
Outputs
We obtained eight time periods (1974, 1976, 1978, 1979, 1988, 1991, 1999, and 2001) of satellite images from Landsat MSS/TM/ETM sensors and two classified land use/cover maps in 1992 (1990-1994) and 2000, and we also collected all kinds of US Census and Agricultural Census data, and statistical data about forest and other land cover. Based on both remotely sensed data and statistical data, we developed annual land use/cover datasets with a 1 by 1 km2 spatial resolution from 1900 to 2004. In the same time, other historical datasets of environmental factors with the same spatial resolution such as climate, ozone, and nitrogen deposition, were also developed. Based on the census data from Forest Inventory and Analysis National Program (FIA), we developed historical forest plantation area and forest age structure distribution maps in Alabama from 1970 to 2004. Based on the available datasets, we have successfully run the TEM (Terrestrial Ecosystem Model) model at a
spatial resolution of 8 by 8 km2 and we have analyzed the simulation results. We found that over 16,844 km2croplands (12.8% of Alabama land area) were transformed to other land covers, and most of these croplands were changed to forest land from 1900 to 2003. Alabama has sequestrated about 0.624 Pg C (457.3 kg C/ha/yr) in the terrestrial ecosystems from 1900 to 2003. Related publications and presentations made based on the simulation results are listed below. We collected historical social and economic data for running an economically driven model to project future land use maps. We developed an empirical multinomial logit model for Alabama, and based on it we began to develop future land use change maps from 2000 to 2030. In these maps we classified land use/covers as softwood forest, mixed forest, hardwood forest, agricultural land and urban & other. This work will be done in this following fiscal year. A new ecosystem model (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM) improved from TEM has
been developed. In the following year, we will run DLEM model with a 1 by 1 km2 spatial resolution to simulate impacts of historical and future land use changes on carbon sequestration in Alabama. The simulation results from both models will be compared and find out the simulation accuracy and uncertainties.
Impacts
Enable the citizens in Alabama to know how land use has changed in the past in Alabama and how much CO2 has sequestrated by terrestrial ecosystems in Alabama, which will help policy makers to make future plans.
Publications
- Chen, H., Tian, H.Q., Liu, M.L., Melillo, J., Pan, S.F., and Zhang, C. 2006. Effects of land-use change on terrestrial carbon dynamics in the southern USA. Journal of Environmental Quality 35: 1533-1547.
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