CONSERVING CALIFORNIA PLANT DIVERSITY IN THE FACE OF URBANIZATION, INVASIVE SPECIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: TERMINATED
• Funding Source: HATCH
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 0205760
• Project No.: CA-D*-ESP-7490-H
• Project Start Date: Oct 1, 2005
• Project End Date: Sep 30, 2010

Project Director
Schwartz, M.

Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS
410 MRAK HALL
DAVIS,CA 95616-8671

Performing Department
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLICY

Non Technical Summary
Habitat loss, invasive species and climate change each pose threats to the maintenance of California's plant diversity. Understanding these drivers of threat, and how they interact, is critical to conserving California's rich natural heritage through the 21st century. Currently, conserving plant diversity is a disparate effort that relies on case-by-case planning. A more synthetic approach that strives to understand threats across suites of related plant taxa is needed. In addition, a more synthetic approach to thinking about the combined threats of climate change, habitat conversion and loss to invasive species is required. The purpose of this study is to link conservation strategies by treating floristic diversity as a whole and understanding the spatial distribution of diversity along with the spatial distribution of the combined threats to that diversity. A series of studies that gets at general issues of threats by climate change, along with assessments of population performance in different regions will help to build that synthesis for plant conservation.

Animal Health Component

(N/A)

Research Effort Categories

Basic

100%

Applied

(N/A)

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
202	2499	1070	100%

Knowledge Area
202 - Plant Genetic Resources;

Subject Of Investigation
2499 - Plant research, general;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology;

Keywords

phylogeny

taxonomy

plant conservation

floristics

biogeography

climate change

invasive species

Goals / Objectives
With 180 federally listed endangered and threatened plant taxa, California has more than twice as many plants at risk of extinction than any other state besides Hawaii. Primary threats to California plant diversity include habitat loss and climate change. I propose to assess the relative importance of these drivers and examine mitigation strategies for plant conservation of plant diversity in face of these drivers. To accomplish this assessment we first need a detailed understanding of the biogeography of California plant diversity plant as well as the spatial pattern of threats to that diversity. I will examine the taxonomic and geographic dispersion of floristic as diversity, examine how rare plant diversity overlays on general patterns of plant diversity and assess the overlaying geographic pattern of threats related to habitat loss and global climate change. Finally, this work will evaluate mitigation strategies to prevent extinction as a result of these threats. Previously we have shown that floras associated with urban regions are exceedingly rich in rare plant occurrences (Schwartz et al. 1999). Further, most of these rare plant occurrences are found somewhere on public lands. Overlain on threats to plant diversity related to habitat loss and degradation is the issue of climatic change. A recent study suggested that up 30% of all biodiversity may be at risk from climatic change (Thomas et al 2004). Inherent in this assessment, however, is the tenuous assumption that all species are tightly linked to climatic constraints in their current distributions. Other recent studies (Schwartz et al, in review) question this assumption and suggest that there are both statistical as well as biological reasons why narrowly distributed plants may be more constrained by soils and edaphic conditions than climate per se. The issue is important because the climate change vulnerability of the California flora will drive how conservation managers respond to threats to narrowly distributed endemic taxa. The objective of this AES project is to complete a series of studies on the biography and phylogeny of rare plant taxa within California and assess threats with respect to existing urban regions, urbanizing regions and connect this to an assessment of vulnerability as a consequence of climate change. As conservation theory has asserted that small and isolated populations are at high risk to extinction threats, conservation managers have been less willing to exert effort on behalf of these small and often isolated urban plant populations. Despite this bleak picture, there have been very few plant extinctions from urban areas within California despite a century of astronomical population growth and significant climate change in and around existing urban areas in California. Thus, observations suggest that these plant taxa may be more conservable than conservation theory suggests. We plan to study the degree to which management may be able to sustain California's rich biodiversity of plants through the 21st century.

Project Methods
My approach to assessing the general problem of conserving plant diversity within California is to use a combination of biogeographic database studies, basic theoretical studies along with field observation and experimentation. There are four general areas in which I will pursue assessing strategies for California plant conservation. Geographic Patterns of Rarity. Much of California's threatened plant diversity resides within existing major metropolitan areas (e.g., San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego). Future urbanization, however, may focus on expansion of urban regions into the desert (e.g., Riverside County) and the Central Valley. We must use existing distribution data to construct habitat models to predict regions of higher and lower likelihood of rare plant occurrences. We are currently developing a suite of habitat models for 6 rare plant taxa in the Shasta-Trinity National Forest. We will build on these models to link this to our on-going work in the Upper Sacramento Valley on plant population performance as assessed through California Natural Diversity Database (CNDDB) information. We will expand this to Central Valley plants at risk. Phylogenetic Patterns of Diversity and Rarity. California is distinct in having a suite of highly diverse lineages comprised of numerous narrowly distributed taxa. We will assemble phylogenetic studies of plant clades in California to ask whether narrowly restricted endemic species tend to be more closely related to one another, or whether they share a common ancestry with more broadly distributed species from which these narrowly distributed taxa each diverged. Population Performance of Rare Plants. A fundamental constraint on understanding the ability of rare plants to persist in human-dominated landscapes is that there are few monitoring studies of rare plant populations. Nonetheless, the California Native Plant Society has several, and some repeated measures of rare plant performance exist within the CNDDB. Focusing first on the upper Sacramento Valley, we will use existing monitoring data to assess plant performance. In addition, we are focusing on the San Francisco metropolitan area in order to assess the success of urban conservation efforts to conserve plant diversity. This project partners with similar efforts on-going in Riverside (M. Allen (UCR) and San Diego (H. Regan, SDSU). Climate Change Vulnerability. Several researchers have begun to use a climatic envelope approach to assess the degree to which species distributions may shift as a consequence of warming. These models assume a tight linkage between current distribution and climate. I hypothesize that narrowly endemic plants may be more limited by soils than by climate. Thus, I predict that endemic plants may not be as vulnerable as these bioclimatic envelope studies suggest. I propose a series of growth chamber and field observation experiments to assess the vulnerability of narrowly restricted plant taxa to climatic variability. Finally, the over-arching goal is to meld related studies together for an assessment of plant conservation strategies for California based on differential vulnerability and conservation achievability.

Progress 10/01/05 to 09/30/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: During 2010 I hosted three roundtable discussion workshops related to the AES project. The single day roundtables both focused on conservation management graduate training. The first centered on effective conflict negotiation in the realm of conservation biology. The workshop garnered about 35 attendees. The second focused on climate change and conservation, also included approximately 35 attendees. The third focused on professional training for conservation biologists and had over 100 attendees. Invited guest speakers for these workshops included lead scientists from The Nature Conservancy, Wildlife Conservation Society, World Wildlife Fund, PRBO, Museum of Natural History in NY, The Western Region of the National Park Service, The Director for Conservation Planning for CA Dept Fish and Game, among others. There were 18 invited guests in total for the three roundtables. In 2009 I hosted two conservation roundtables, inviting ten conservation professionals from different state and federal agencies along with conservation NGO's. Attendance was approximately 50 students for each roundtable. In 2010 I hosted a 3-day working group / short course on science communication and policy development. The Science Communication and Policy Development Short Course had 25 participants, focused on carbon sequestration, had 11 invited guests, including the CA Secretary of Agriculture and Cal EPA, along with Representative Mike Thompson, among others. I also participated in the leadership team that brought the Governor's Climate Summit to campus. This was an event that garnered over 600 attendees. During 2008, I was invited as the keynote speaker in a plant population symposium in Luxembourg. During 2008, I presented my final findings of a climate change species response model to the US Forest Service in the Shasta Trinity forests, and I hosted the initial workshop for the Managed Relocation working group. This working group subsequently went on to write several papers, but also participate in a variety of public for a on the topic. I have been quoted in 6 or so newspaper articles on the subject and was interviewed by Public Radio on this topic twice during this period (Jeffrey Callison, Capital Public Radio in 2008; All Things Considered in 2010). PARTICIPANTS: For the activities listed above, I partnered with: The Nature Conservancy (Arlington, VA); Wildlife Conservation Society (New York); World Wildlife Fund (Washington DC), Conservation International (Washington DC); The American Museum of Natural History (NY) Texas A&M; San Diego State, University of Maryland, University of Washington, Packard Foundation, PRBO (Santa Rosa), The Heinz Center (Washington DC), COMPASS (Santa Barbara) and at least 10 other organizations. In addition, I partnered with UCLA, University of Arizona, Colorado University, Desert Research Institute, Scripps Oceanographic Institute to co-host the Dept of Interior's SW Climate Science Center. My Conservation Management program has developed projects in cooperation with California Department of Fish and Game, Point Reyes National Park, The Nature Conservancy, Oregon Department of Wildlife, Elkhorn Slough Nature Center, and others. Finally, I partnered with Notre Dame University, Brown University, University of Melbourne on various working group activities reported herein. TARGET AUDIENCES: My work has focused on training for effective science. The target audience was divided amongst graduate students, faculty, and the general public. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
The 2009 and 2010 roundtables resulted in a suite of graduate students who are approaching graduate training in a whole new way, developing skill sets that they can signal to potential employers for careers outside academia. These students have grouped up and are in the process of writing three papers regarding these experiences and the focus that it has on helping them hone career skills. The 2010 short course served a s launching pad for our developing additional short courses with a mind toward teaching UCD scientists, agency scientists and NGO scientists on skills required to effectively use science in the policy realm. The 2010 Governor's Climate Summit resulted in the launching of the Governor's R20 committee for local action on climate change and focused campus efforts on developing a presence in sustainability science. In addition, I partnered with UCLA, University of Arizona, Colorado University, Desert Research Institute, Scripps Oceanographic Institute in 2010 to co-host the Dept of Interior's SW Climate Science Center. The Assisted Migration working group culminated in a visit Federal agencies to report the results of our findings. This occurred early in 2011. Our findings are being incorporated into on-going climate change adaptation planning efforts. The Conservation Management program, that I initiated, got funded and manage, has graduated five students in its first two years. These students are gainfully employed in Conservation / research jobs, with our first graduate now managing an international wildlife conservation fund for the USFWS. Several of the Conservation Management group projects are completed with manuscripts in preparation and reports submitted to cooperating organizations (e.g., California State Fish and Game, The Nature Conservancy, Point Reyes National Park).

Publications

• McLachlan, J.S., Hellmann, J.J. and M.W. Schwartz. 2007. A framework for debate of assisted migration in an era of climate change. Conservation Biology 21: 297-302. Lozano FD, Saiz JCM, Ollero HS, and M.W. Schwartz. 2007. Effects of dynamic taxonomy on rare species and conservation listing: insights from the Iberian vascular flora. Biodiversity and Conservation 16: 4039-4050.
• Schwartz, M.W. 2008. The performance of the Endangered Species Act. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 39:279-299.
• Lawson, D.M., Lamar, C.K. and Schwartz , M.W. 2008. Quantifying plant population persistence in human dominated landscapes. Conservation Biology 22: 922-928.
• Williams, N.S.G., Schwartz, M.W., Vesk P.A., McCarthy, M.A., Hahs, A.K., Clemants, S.E., Corlett, R.T., Norton, B. A., Thompson, K., McDonnell, M.D. 2009. A conceptual framework for predicting the effects of urban environments on plants. Journal of Ecology 97:4-9.
• Williams, J.N., Seo, C., Thorne, J., Nelson, J.K., Erwin, S. O'Brien J.M., Schwartz, M.W. 2009. Using species distribution models to predict new occurrences for rare plants. Diversity and Distributions 15:565-576.
• Richardson, D.M., Hellmann, J.J., Mclachlan, J., Sax, D.F., Schwartz, M.W., Brennan, J., Gonzalez, P., Root, T., Sala, O., Schneider, S. Ashe, D., Camacho, A., Clark, J.R., Early, R., Etterson, J., Fiedler, D. Gill, J., Polasky, S., Safford, H., Thompson, A., Vellend, M. 2009. Multidimensional evaluation of managed relocation. PNAS 106:9721-9724.
• Hahs, A.K. McDonnell, MJ and 8 others. 2009. A global synthesis of plant extinction rates in urban areas. Ecology Letters 12:1165-1173
• Schwartz, M.W., Hellmann, JJ and McLachlan JS. 2009. The precautionary principle in managed relocation is misguided advice. Trends in Ecology and evolution 24: 474.
• Muir, M.J. and Schwartz, M.W. Academic Research Training for a Nonacademic Workplace: a Case Study of Graduate Student Alumni Who Work in Conservation. 2009. Conservation Biology 23:1357-1368.
• Sexton, J.P., Schwartz, M.W. and Winterhalder, B.P. 2010. Incorporating sociocultural adaptive capacity in conservation hotspots assessments. Diversity and Distributions 16:439-450.
• Lyons, K.G. A.M. Shapiro, Schwartz, M.W. 2010. Distribution and ecotypic variation of the invasive annual barb goatgrass (Aegilops triuncialis) on serpentine soil. Invasive Plant Science and Management 4:376-389.
• Duncan, R.P., Clements, S.E., Corlett, R.T., Hahs, A.K.,McCarthy, M.A., McDonnell, M.J., Schwartz, M.W., Thompson, K., Vesk, P.A., Williams, N.S.G. in press 2010. Plant traits and extinction in urban areas: a meta-analysis of 11 cities. Global Ecology and Biogeography. In press.

Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: During 2009 my AES progress focused on four areas. Working with an urban plant diversity working group associated with the University of Melbourne, we now have two publications and one other in submission. This international collaboration is producing several publications that feature the data on plant traits that result in persistence, or failure in urban areas. The three major urban centers of California (San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco) are included in this analysis. Our work has focused on identify filters to persistence in urban environments (e.g., habitat transformation, environmental stress) and correlate these with traits that may favor persistence under such environments. The major accomplishment for this year is a paper comparing extinction rates in urban areas around the world. The key finding is that pre-Industrial revolution cities are far less likely to retain biological diversity than those built after the advent of modern transportation. My second area of progress this year is helping to coordinate a research group to work on the issue of managed relocation of species in response to climate change. I published one paper on this during 2007. My colleagues and I have attracted funding from the National Science Foundation and the Cedar Tree Foundation. We had two meetings in 2009. We published two papers on this issue this year and are currently working on a policy briefing paper. Third, I wrapped up a research program to predict habitat distribution for 6 rare and threatened species in the northern California Coast Ranges. The publication is now out. The model is currently being used by the US Forest Service for protected species planning. Fourth, I am working in the second year of a Conservation Management degree certification program. The goal of Conservation Management is to improve training of graduate students seeking careers outside of academia. This year we published a paper that evaluates graduate education needs based on an alumni survey. PARTICIPANTS: Urban Plant Conservation: My partners are an international working group including: Nick Williams, Mark McDonnell, Mick McCarthy, Peter Vesk and Amy Hahs (all from University of Melbourne); Steve Clemants (deceased, formerly of the NY Botanical Society); Richard Corlett (Univ. Hong Kong), Ken Thompson (Univ. Sheffield), Richard Duncan (Lincoln Univ, New Zealand). Managed Relocation: Primary collaborators are: Jessica Hellmann (Notre Dame); Jason McLachlan (Notre Dame); Dov Sax (Brown University); Jean Brennan (Defenders of Wildlife); Nancy Green (USFWS); Dave Richardson (Stellenbosch Univ, South Africa); Alex Camacho (Notre Dame); Andrew Thompson (NOAA) and several others. Graduate Education in Conservation: Matt Muir (Foundations of Success), and numerous panelists from all of the state (California) and federal resource management agencies. Climate Change vulnerability assessment: US Forest Service and National Park Service staffs for the Shasta Trinity National Forests and Sequoia Kings Canyon National Parks Respectively. TARGET AUDIENCES: Target audience is firstly a scientific audience, but each project has some outreach component. The most well developed was the assisted migration project. Here the outreach includes resource management professionals as I have been invited to participate in three workshop retreats for professionals in US Fish and Wildlife Service and US Geological Survey. Finally, we also talk to press regarding this issue and have been interviewed by more than a dozen reporters on the issue. Articles have appeared in sources as diverse as National Geographic and the New York Times. Conservation Management has conservation NGO, state and federal agencies as a target audience. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: My project has broadened in scope with the inclusion of the conservation management program. Although this is reflected in my new project that embarks this year, it is a project modification for this project.

Impacts
I have a long-standing research interest in understanding the appropriate application of conservation resources in urban environments. Given the lower profile of urban endangered plants, few resources are available for their conservation. Nevertheless, these may be some of the easiest resources to conserve using stakeholder engagement. My publication in this area this year builds on a change in knowledge. With an increasing literature in this area, there is robust support for the conservable nature of these resources that may, but has not yet, led to a change in actions from conservation organizations. My work on managed relocation has been an effort to synthesize the pros and cons of managed relocation. These papers are being very well cited. We are currently working on a policy brief for a national release in 2010. Thus, our work thus far has been a change in knowledge, but we now have an explicit strategic plan to work on change in actions. We are working with Defenders of Wildlife and the US Fish and Wildlife Service to coordinate a public release of this policy brief. My work on habitat modeling in the Coast range has resulted in a change in action with the US Forest Service and their treatment of climate change vulnerability in rare plants. We are currently extending these methods and results to work the Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks on a biodiversity status assessment. This report will be a prelude to creating a strategic action plan for managing these parks under climate change. My work with the conservation management program has resulted in change in knowledge and change in action. By carefully studying the needs of graduate students who seek conservation jobs, we are changing the delivery of educational programs at a number of universities. University of Wisconsin - Stevens Point is currently studying our program and considering adopting it. The lead scientists for the four leading Conservation NGO's are coming to UC Davis in spring 2010 to discuss conservation education, as well. But, our biggest impact has been on how conservation organizations manage natural resources and interact with universities. Student driven group projects in our program have resulted in formal collaborations with Audubon California; the Sonoma Land Trust, Defenders of Wildlife, California Fish and Game, Cybertracker, Paso Pacifico, and the Nature Conservancy. In some cases, this has led to UC Davis revising or creating habitat management plans; in some cases it has resulted in changes in landowner contact programs or habitat restoration programs run by our collaborators. In addition, it has change the way that our students approach their graduate education.

Publications

• Williams, NSG Schwartz MW, Vesk PA and 8 others. 2009. A conceptual framework for predicting the effects of urban environments on floras. Journal of Ecology 47: 4-9.
• Hahs, AK, McDonnell, MJ and 9 others including Schwartz MW. 2009. A global synthesis of plant extinction rates in urban areas. Ecology Letters 12: 1165-1173.
• Schwartz, MW, Hellmann, JJ, McLachlan, JS. 2009. The precautionary principle is misguided advice. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 24:474.
• Muir, M.J. and Schwartz, M.W. 2009. Graduate education in conservation: Academic training for a non-academic workplace. In press. Conservation Biology.

Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: During 2008 my AES progress focused on five areas. Working with an urban plant diversity working group associated with the University of Melbourne, we now have one publication in press (#1), and two others in draft form. This international collaboration is producing several publications that feature the data on plant traits that result in persistence, or failure in urban areas. The three major urban centers of California (San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco) are included in this analysis. Our work has focused on identify filters to persistence in urban environments (e.g., habitat transformation, environmental stress) and correlate these with traits that may favor persistence under such environments. My second are of progress this year is an effort to review of the success of endangered species protection for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics. This is an invited review, published in December of 2008 (#2). The Annual Reviews are prestigious articles that are generally well-cited. My work on endangered species protection has placed me as an authority on the issue and resulted in my being invited to write this review. In this review I cover the various ways that people have considered the Endangered Species Act a success or failure; and both positions have been vigorously argued. My position is that judging this as a success or failure is not a clear cut scientific issue, but depends on values. From that position, I describe the ways that endangered species programs have been documented to have helped propel the conservation of biodiversity and ways that they have been tried, but have been less clearly successful. I add to this analysis a consideration of the social aspects of conservation and assess the ways that the ESA has altered population ecology through court actions. Third, I have coordinated a research group to work on the issue of assisted migration of species in response to climate change. I published one paper on this during 2007. My colleagues and I have attracted funding from the National Science Foundation and the Cedar Tree Foundation. We had one meeting in 2008 and two more scheduled in 2009. We hope to develop several published articles on this over the next few years. Our first article is submitted (#3). Fourth, I am wrapping up an on-going research program to predict habitat distribution for 6 rare and threatened species in the northern California Coast Ranges. The publication has now been accepted for publication (#4). The model is currently being used by the US Forest Service for protected species planning. Fifth, I am collaboration with Dr. S. Harrison to do a biogeographic assessment of the endemicity with climate in California. This final project is on-going and the data are currently being analyzed. PARTICIPANTS: 1. Bioclimatic Modeling. US Forest Service. Shasta Trinity National Forest botanists: Julie Nelson, Susan Erwin. 2. Assisted Migration. The Managed Relocation Working Group. Principle collaborators are: Dov Sax (Brown University); Jason McLachlan (Notre Dame) , Jessica Hellmann (Notre Dame), David Richardson (Stellenbosch University, South Africa). 3. Urban Floras Project. Principal collaborators include: Nick Williams, Peter Vesk, Mick McCarthy and Mark McDonnell (Melbourne University); Ken Thompson (University of Sheffield), Richard Duncan (Lincoln University, New Zealand), Steve Clemants (New York Botanical Garden) and Richard Corlett (University of Singapore). TARGET AUDIENCES: Target audience is firstly a scientific audience, but each project has some outreach component. The most well developed was the assisted migration project. Here the outreach includes resource management professionals as I have been invited to participate in three workshop retreats for professionals in US Fish and Wildlife Service and US Geological Survey. Finally, we also talk to press regarding this issue and have been interviewed by more than a dozen reporters on the issue. Articles have appeared in sources as diverse as National Geographic and the New York Times. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
The impact of my work can be summarized by six metrics. First, my collaboration with Jason McLachlan and Jessica Hellmann (Notre Dame) on assisted migration of dispersal limited species threatened by climate change has resulted in a workshop at UC Davis and funding for three additional workshops (NSF and Cedar Tree Foundation funding) as well as press coverage of the story (see http://www.nd.edu/~hellmann/MRWorkingGroup/Pubs_%26_Media.html for a list of 14 popular publications published in 2008 featuring our working group). Second, I was invited, and am participating, in the "Urbanization and plant functional traits" working group as part of the Australia-New Zealand Research Network for Vegetation Function (http://www.vegfunction.net/wg/22/22_Urbanisation.htm). Third, my work on plant conservation biology has resulted in my being invited as a keynote speaker to the Plant Population Biology for the Coming Decade Symposium in Luxembourg (May 2008) (http://www.symposium.lu/popbio2008/) (#5). Thirdly, our work on plant population modeling is being used by the Shasta - Trinity National Forests to do proactive planning for conservation under climate change. Finally, I applied for, and received, a $500,000 graduate student training grant from the David and Lucile Packard Foundation for the creation of a Conservation Management graduate training program at UC Davis. In our first operational year, we have engaged conservation stakeholders in California, and around the world to engage our students in hands on problem solving with conservation organizations. So far, this project is working to help develop conservation plans for several regions.

Publications

• Williams, N.S.G., Schwartz, M.W., Vesk P.A., McCarthy, M.A., Hahs, A.K., Clemants, S.E., Corlett, R.T., Norton, B. A., Thompson, K., McDonnell, M.D. A conceptual framework for predicting the effects of urban environments on plants. Journal of Ecology. In press, 2009.
• Schwartz, M.W. 2008. The performance of the Endangered Species Act. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 39:279-299. 2008.
• Richardson, D.M., Hellmann, J.J., Mclachlan, J., Sax, D.F., Schwartz, M.W., Brennan, J., Gonzalez, P., Root, T., Sala, O., Schneider, S. Ashe, D., Camacho, A., Clark, J.R., Early, R., Etterson, J., Fiedler, D. Gill, J., Polasky, S., Safford, H., Thompson, A., Vellend, M. Multidimensional evaluation of managed relocation. Nature. In review, 2009
• Williams, J.N., Seo, C., Thorne, J., Nelson, J.K., Erwin, S. O'Brien J.M., Schwartz, M.W. Using species distribution models to predict new occurrences for rare plants. Diversity and Distributions. In press, 2009.
• Schwartz, M.W. Conservation decision-making using species distribution models with sparse data. Conservation Letters. In review, 2009.

Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07

Outputs
During 2007 my AES progress focused on five areas. First, I was invited to work on an urban plant diversity working group associated with the University of Melbourne. This international collaboration is producing several publications that feature the data on plant traits that result in persistence, or failure in urban areas. The three major urban centers of California (San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco) are included in this analysis. We have met twice and produced two manuscripts submitted by the end of 2007, with our empirical paper expected to be submitted early in 2008. My second are of progress this year is an effort to review of the success of endangered species protection for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics. This is an invited review to be published late in 2008. My work on endangered species protection has placed me as an authority on the issue and resulted in my being invited to write this review. In this review I cover the various ways that people have considered the Endangered Species Act a success or failure; both positions have been argued. My position is that judging the ESA is not a clear cut scientific issue, but depends on personal values. From that position, I describe the ways that endangered species programs have been documented to have helped propel the conservation of biodiversity and ways that have been tried, but have been less clearly successful. Third, I have begun work on the issue of assisted migration of species in response to climate change. I published one paper on this during this past year and hosted a working group meeting at UC Davis in fall of 2007. The goal is to engage state and federal agencies on developing policy for managing species distributions under global climate change. My colleagues and I have have attracted funding from the National Science Foundation and the Cedar Tree Foundation for future working group meetings. We hope to develop several published articles on th is over the next few years. Fourth, I am wrapping up a research program to predict habitat distribution for 6 rare and threatened species in the northern California Coast Ranges. Our model is currently being used by the US Forest Service for protected species planning. Fifth, I am collaboration with Dr. S. Harrison on a biogeographic assessment of the endemicity with climate in California. This final project is on-going and the data are currently being analyzed. Sixth, my work on climate change and plant conservation has led me to work on an assessment of climate change impacts for Yolo County. Also in this area, I have begun discussions with the California Council on Science and Technology (CCST), who has been invited to submit a proposal to the natural resource managing agencies of California in order to consult with a team of experts on strategies for public lands acquisition and management given climate change predictions for California. I expect to be on this team of experts and am helping the CCST assemble the team.

Impacts
The impact of my work can be summarized by six metrics. First, my collaboration with Jason McLachlan and Jessica Hellmann (Notre Dame) on assisted migration of dispersal limited species threatened by climate change has resulted in a workshop at UC Davis and funding for three additional workshops (NSF and Cedar Tree Foundation funding) as well as press coverage of the story ( The New York Times; Conservation Magazine; New Scientist; Der Speigel (Germany)). Second, I was invited, and am participating, in the "Urbanization and plant functional traits" working group as part of the Australia-New Zealand Research Network for Vegetation Function (http://www.vegfunction.net/wg/22/22_Urbanisation.htm). Third, my work on plant conservation biology has resulted in my being invited as a keynote speaker to the Plant Population Biology for the Coming Decade Symposium in Luxembourg in May 2008(http://www.symposium.lu/popbio2008/). Thirdly, our work on plant population modeling is being used by the Shasta - Trinity National Forests to do proactive planning for conservation under climate change. Fourth, I was invited to sit on the science advisory council for the Habitat Conservation Plan / Natural Communities Conservation Planning Team for Butte County. In this capacity, I served as the plant ecologist. Fifth, the California Council for Science and Technology ahs been invited by the California State Resource Agencies to submit a proposal for a working group to study the effects of climate change for state resource agencies. I have been working closely with them to form a working group, which will commence in early 2008. Finally, I applied for, and received, a $500,000 graduate student training grant from the David and Lucile Packard Foundation for the creation of a Conservation Management graduate training program at UC Davis.

Publications

• McLachlan, J.S., Hellmann, J.J. and M.W. Schwartz. 2007. A framework for debate of assisted migration in an era of climate change. Conservation Biology 21: 297-302.

Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/06

Outputs
During this calendar year I focused my achievements in four core areas. The first area addresses studies of mycorrhizal fungi within the context of plant conservation. These include writings related to the problem of myccorrhizal fungi as invasive species altering plant community dynamics and composition (pubs #1-2). These publications were in conjunction with an NCEAS working group on mycorrhizal species. Together we summarized the potential impacts of fungal invasions on plant community composition and fungal community integrity by reviewing the relevant ecological and fungal literature. In conjunction with this group, we also published a review of models of mycorrhizal functioning within plant communities across scales. A second area examines the maintenance of diversity under climate change and the potential of climate change as a driver of extinction. My colleagues and I used our model of tree and bird distributions in the eastern United States to examine the potential of climate change as a driver of extinction. In particular, we were interested in the constraints on predicting extinctions that arise from problems with small geographic distributions (#3). A third area of work accomplished was my focus on examining anthropogenic affects on the flora of California. In this arena, we completed three sub-projects. The first details the degree to which the floras of urban areas have become more homogeneous as a consequence of local extinctions of unique species and the invasion of common species across regions (#4). The second project examined the performance of rare plant populations in urban versus rural areas using California Natural Diversity Database information (paper submitted: Lawson, Lamar and Schwartz). The third project was a habitat modeling project concerned with predicting new occurrences of six rare plant taxa in the Shasta-Trinity National Forests (paper submitted; Williams et al). A final area of accomplishment in 2006 was in regard to investigating strategies for plant conservation. First, my colleagues and I examined the notion of assisting migration of plant taxa under the face of climate change (paper submitted; McLachlan et al). The second contribution in this field was to suggest a framework for approaching conservation of plant diversity within urban environments (#5)

Impacts
The impact of the work accomplished in my lab for 2006 is varied. Our work with mycorrhizal fungi (#1,2) is published in leading journals and is most likely to influence future research, although we hope that it will also be read my restoration ecologists using mycorrhizal inoculum for restoration projects. A central theme of my work is on conservation of urban plant populations. My work on global climate change and extinction potential (#3) has the capacity to influence conservation decision-making by increasing the value of small isolated urban populations for overall conservation objectives. Similarly, publications #4, and 5 speak to the urban areas as reservoirs of important conservable components of our overall biodiversity. In addition, our work with the US Forest Service (submitted) is being used to guide rare plant inventory work on US National Forests. I am particularly excited by our publication assisted migration (McLachlan et al, submitted). This work has been picked up by Conservation in Practice and the New York Times, with articles related to our work scheduled to appear in late December, 2006 and early January of 2007. I believe that this work has very serious policy implications for responding to global climate change and I hope that this work helps to launch serious policy discussions within public land agencies within the US.

Publications

• Schwartz, M.W., Hoeksema, J.D., Gehring, C.A., Johnson, N.C., Klironomos, J.N., Abbott, L.K., Pringle, A. 2006. The promise and the potential consequences of the global transport of mycorrhizal fungal inoculum. Ecology Letters 9: 501-515.
• Johnson, N.C., Hoeksema, J.D., Bever, J.D., Chaudhary, V.B., Gehring, C., Klironomos, J., Koide, R., Miller, R.M., Moore, J., Moutoglis, P., Schwartz, M., Simard, S., Swenson, W., Umbanhowar, J., Wilson, G., Zabinski, K. 2006 in press. From Lilliput to Brobdingnag: extending models of mycorrhizal function across scales. Bioscience 56:889-900.
• Schwartz, M.W. Iverson, L.R., Prasad, A.M., Matthews S.N., O'Connor, R.J. 2006. Predicting Extinctions as a Result of Climate Change. Ecology 87:1611-1615.
• Schwartz, M.W., Thorne, J.H. and Viers, J.H. 2006. Biotic homogenization of the California flora in urban and urbanizing regions. Biological Conservation. 127: 282-291.
• Schwartz, M.W. 2006. How conservation scientists can help develop social capital for biodiversity. Conservation Biology. 20:1550-1552.