Source: STATE UNIV OF NEW YORK submitted to NRP
A RISK MANAGEMENT OF CHRONIC WASTING DISEASE OUTBREAK IN NEW YORK STATE
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0203849
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Aug 1, 2005
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2008
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
STATE UNIV OF NEW YORK
(N/A)
SYRACUSE,NY 13210
Performing Department
ENVIRONMENTAL & FOREST BIOLOGY
Non Technical Summary
Because prion diseases are a relatively new discovery, and because CWD is the first known prion disease to occur in free-ranging animals, we find ourselves in largely uncharted waters when faced with the predictions, consequences, and management strategies required of infected populations. We need to be able to predict the patterns and influences of a disease with potentially devastating consequences to wildlife populations, human health, and the State's economy. We intend to provide a risk assessment model that can be used to evaluate the impacts of a CWD outbreak on New York State's big game industry, and inform allocation of resources to monitoring and management of the disease.
Animal Health Component
(N/A)
Research Effort Categories
Basic
100%
Applied
(N/A)
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
13508993100100%
Goals / Objectives
Ours is a three-tiered goal: to identify high CWD transmission risk areas/activities in New York State, to evaluate the impacts of white-tailed deer life history characteristics of movement on potential disease transmission, and to generate potential socio-economic consequences of a CWD outbreak in New York State. We intend to develop a time series risk assessment map using Geographic Information Systems.
Project Methods
We intend use Geograpic Information Systems (GIS) to develop time series risk assessment maps of potential routes of disease transmission by identifying various large-scale, geographical factors that may influence the spread of disease. These factors include, but are not limited to deer density and distribution, location of cervid farms, focus points of disease entry, location of livestock and developed areas, identification of geographical barriers and potential disease reservoirs, and degree of fragmentation on the landscape.

Progress 08/01/05 to 09/30/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: 1. We deployed 125 GPS collars in 2 study areas of central New York (NYSDEC Regions 6 and 7), and an additional 22 collars in the central Adirondacks (Region 5). 2. We evaluated the spatial scale at which deer appear to perceive the landscape and the characteristics of land cover composition and configuration that influence the amount of space and specific cover-types used within and among seasons. 3. We evaluated temporal and spatial dynamics of both direct and indirect rates of contact among individuals across a range of geographic scales. 4. We mapped the geographic distribution of risk of spread of disease in terms of probability of contact among deer from a point of occurrence. We further classified land cover within this distribution in terms of probability of use and potential for long-term contamination by prions. 5. We compared use of space by deer between the agriculture-forest matrix of central New York and the contiguous, mountainous forest region of northern New York and outlined management implications for both regions. 6. We evaluated the potential for extension of the model to other areas of New York. PARTICIPANTS: William Porter, PI, Professor; Amy Dechen Quinn, Doctoral Student; David Williams, Doctoral Student; Matthew Smith, Masters Student; Frank DeSantis, Masters Student; Brigham Whitman, Masters Student; New York State Department of Environmental Conservation; US Geological Survey; SUNY-ESF TARGET AUDIENCES: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation; Scientific Community PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Space use by deer varies along a gradient of fragmentation. Land-cover composition is dominated by forest and ratios of forest, agriculture and rangeland are consistently about 2:1:1. Home ranges are smaller in areas where landscape patches are highly fragmented, patch richness is high and where there is a mixture of large and small patches. Our findings show that both daily direct and indirect contact probabilities vary through the year in a form approximating a sine curve, with daily indirect contact probabilities nearly 3 times greater than direct contact probabilities. The probability of contact among individuals peaks in late January through early March. Probability of contact decreases rapidly in early spring and is lowest during late May and early June, corresponding to parturition and rearing of fawns. Contact probability remains low until fall when it increases in association with rut in November and December. The basic structure of the spatial extent of first-order direct contacts is described as the cumulative probability of contact and reaches 90% at 7,400 m and 99% at 10,900 m. Corresponding extents for indirect contact probabilities occur at 10,250 m and 48,750 m, respectively. We further refine our estimates of areas with the greatest potential for direct contact to occur, or that are at a high risk for contamination by prions through the use of resource selection functions to characterize the behavioral choices deer make in using different landscape attributes. Rendering a map of the statistical distribution of the risk of disease spread suggests that allocation of resources to control the spread of the disease could be much more tightly focused than the 16 km (10-mile) radius containment area. If managers are comfortable accepting a 90% probability of containing first-order direct contact, a radius of 7.5 km (4.7 miles) could be used in central New York. This reduces the area from approximately 800 km2 (300 square miles) to approximately 170 km2 (66 mi2). Targeting of specific land-cover types within that containment area can further reduce the area of primary focus

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 10/01/06 to 09/30/07

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The focus of year 2 (of 4) on this project was deploying the remaining GPS collars and recovering collars from year 1. At total of 89 GPS collars have now been deployed on 4 sex-age classes. We documented dispersal in 7 males and data suggest that interaction of timing of dispersal and fall harvest of deer will pose challenges to managing the spread of disease. Movement data from recovery of year-1 collars shows the GPS technology is producing exceptionally rich information. Preliminary analyses show seasonal home ranges that are smaller than expected and seasonal movements that are larger than expected. Year-2 collars are now being recovered and data analysis is underway PARTICIPANTS: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation US Geological Service John Major - NYS DEC Ed Kautz - NYS DEC Dave Reihlman - NYS DEC Jim Farqhar - NYS DEC Jeremy Hurst - NYS DEC Steve Herkins - NYS DEC Charles Dente - NYS DEC Bryan Richards, USGS Rome Frank Bred (2006, 2007) - Verona, NY Landowner Terry Skinner (2006, 2007) - Rome, NY Landowner Paul Swistak (2006, 2007) - Rome, NY Landowner Gary Sherwood (2006, 2007) - Verona, NY Landowner George Joseph (2007) - Westmoreland, NY Landowner Frank Browka (2006, 2007) - Verona, NY Landowner Verona Beach State Park (2007) - New York State Parks Dr. Deborah Fisher (2006, 2007) - Consulting Veterinarian Bernie Miller (2007) - Recovered collar (hunter) Greg Popple (2007) - Recovered collar (hunter) Jeffrey Jost (2007) - Recovered collar (hunter) Karl Esengard (2007) - Recovered collar (hunter) Earl Hall (2007) - Recovered collar (hunter) Frank Facciolo (2007) - Recovered collar (hunter) Tom Robbins (2007) - Recovered collar (found dead deer) Matthew Masci (2007) - Recovered collar (found dead deer) Andrew Madonia (2006) - Recovered collar (hunter) Jack Roux (2006) - Recovered collar (hunter) Cortland Highland Forest (2006, 2007) - Onondaga County Parks Chip Engst (2006, 2007) - Fabius, NY Landowner Larry VanDruff (2006, 2007) - Cazenovia, NY Landowner Mark Haws (2006) - DeRuyter, NY Landowner The Honeywell Corporation (2006, 2007) - Tully, NY Landowner Jeff Skeele (2007) - Fabius, NY Landowner Russ DaVall (2006) - Homer, NY Landowner Jerry Contento (2006, 2007) - Homer, NY Landowner Cy Weichert (2006) - Tully, NY Landowner Dave Myers (2007) - Skaneateles, NY Landowner Suzanne Snow (2007) - Skaneateles, NY Landowner Fesko Family (2007) - Skaneateles, NY Landowner Dave Frank (2007) - Recovered collar (hunter) Jeff Crowfut (2007) - Recovered collar (found deer hit by car) Scott Campbell (2007) - Recovered collar (found harvested deer) Tina Garrity (2006) - Recovered collar (found collar) Dan Newton (2006) - Recovered ear tags (hunter) Diane Brzuszkiewicz (2006) - Recovered ear tags (hunter) TARGET AUDIENCES: Wildlife professionals College students High-school science students Syracuse Post Standard Article: Don't Shoot (Dave Figura). Interviewed November 2007. Dechen, A.C. Movement patterns among GPS-collared white-tailed deer in Central New York: Evaluating the parameters that influence the spread of chronic wasting disease. Presented to SUNY-ESF General Ecology Class - Instructor: Dr. Tom Horton November 8, 2007 (invited speaker-300 people). Dechen, A.C. Movement patterns among GPS-collared white-tailed deer in Central New York: Evaluating the parameters that influence the spread of chronic wasting disease. Presented to Fabius-Pompey Community, Fabius, NY. November 5, 2007 (invited speaker-30 people). Dechen, A.C. Movement patterns among GPS-collared white-tailed deer in Central New York: Evaluating the parameters that influence the spread of chronic wasting disease. Presented to Fair Haven Elementary School, Fairhaven, VT. November 2, 2007 (invited speaker-95 people). . The Daily Orange: ESF

Impacts
While products are planned, it is still too early to see tangible outcomes. In the coming year, we expect to publish papers on field-based surgery of deer, movement dynamics exploring scale and patterns of spatial autocorrelation of movements and specifically link these to land form characteristics.

Publications

  • Dechen, A.C., D.M. Williams, W.F. Porter. Habitat use among GPS-collared white-tailed deer in Central New York: evaluating the parameters that influence the spread of chronic wasting disease. Presented poster at the 2007 Wildlife Society Conference, Tucson, AZ. September 2007.
  • Williams, D.M., A.C. Dechen, W.F. Porter. Spatial scales of movement for white-tailed deer in response to the landscape: implications for chronic wasting disease risk assessment. Presented at the 2007 Wildlife Society Conference, Tucson, AZ. September 2007.
  • Dechen, A.C., D.M. Williams, W.F. Porter. Movement patterns among GPS-collared white-tailed deer in central New York: evaluating the parameters that influence the spread of chronic wasting disease. Presented at the 2007 Wildlife Disease Association Conference, Estes Park, CO. August, 2007


Progress 10/01/05 to 09/30/06

Outputs
The project has progressed through data acquisition and exploratory data analysis and is now in the final model development phase. Evaluation of current and past literature has led to the generation of multiple working hypotheses regarding winter habitat selection of white-tailed deer in the Adirondack Mountains. These hypotheses serve as candidate models which will be evaluated using model selection criteria (Bayesian information criterion: BIC). Data pertaining to deer radio-telemetry locations, coupled with recent aerial surveys of deer wintering yards, are being used as dependent variables. Independent model variables include pertinent landscape metrics which are being calculated from land cover and topographical data of the region. The "best" model will be used to generate a map of potential deer wintering habitat in the Adirondacks. A snow-depth map of the northern New York area has been developed with data from 52 monitoring stations within and around the Adirondack Park. The map was created using a combination of multiple regression and kriging techniques to produce a region wide map of mean January maximum snow-depth. This snow-depth map will serve as a cost- surface for simulations of deer migrations to previously predicted winter habitats. These simulations will enable researcher to examine the potential for disease spread in the Adirondack Park by allowing them to plot potential migratory movement patterns

Impacts
Should diseases, such as chronic wasting disease, spread to the Adirondack deer population, hunting pressure may decline in the region due to negative public perceptions of human exposure risks. The potential for increased deer densities to negatively impact forest regeneration and overall ecosystem health is well documented. Knowledge of the potential migratory pathways of deer in the Adirondacks is vital to the effective management of disease and deer populations in the region and will equip managers with an efficient means of allocating resources to meet management objectives.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period