Source: UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS submitted to
AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL FINANCE MARKETS IN TRANSITION
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
TERMINATED
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0202932
Grant No.
(N/A)
Project No.
ILLU-470-322
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
NC-1014
Program Code
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2004
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2009
Grant Year
(N/A)
Project Director
Sherrick, B. J.
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
2001 S. Lincoln Ave.
URBANA,IL 61801
Performing Department
AGRICULTURAL AND CONSUMER ECONOMICS
Non Technical Summary
This project addresses the broad scope and nature of financial changes in the agricultural and rural sectors. Specifically, the project examines: 1) the effects of changes in international competitive balance and federal and state policies affecting agriculture on the financial and economic performance of farms, agribusinesses and rural financial markets; 2) the effects of market, policy, and structural change in the agricultural and financial market sectors on the financial soundness, safety, and management of financial institutions that supply capital to agriculture; 3) the management strategies, capital needs, and financial performance required for the long-term sustainability of firms in the food and agribusiness sector; and 4) the role of social capital and rural entrepreneurship on the economic status of a community.
Animal Health Component
(N/A)
Research Effort Categories
Basic
35%
Applied
35%
Developmental
30%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
6016110301050%
6026110301050%
Goals / Objectives
1. Determine the effects of changes in international competitive balance and federal and state policies affecting agriculture on the financial and economic performance of farms, agribusinesses and rural financial markets. 2. Determine the effects of market, policy, and structural change in the agricultural and financial market sectors on the financial soundness, safety, and management of financial institutions that supply capital to agriculture. 3. Evaluate the management strategies, capital needs, and financial performance required for the long-term sustainability of firms in the food and agribusiness sector. 4. Social Capital and Rural Entrepreneurship.
Project Methods
The methodological approaches employed in this study will involve both basic and applied research, where the latter serves as the basis for outreach and extension programming with key stakeholder groups' agricultural producers, financial institutions, agribusiness firms, and policy makers. The emphasis on applied research will utilize financial and structural data that are high quality, timely, and primarily micro in nature. The data will reflect various performance and structural attributes of farm businesses, credit suppliers, and agribusiness firms. The data will also allow for analyses of policy and decision making options under alternative environmental scenarios. The modeling approaches used will be designed to reflect representative production firms, financial institutions, and other applicable organizations appropriate for the objective of concern. Safety and soundness of the rural and agricultural financial markets, together with economic viability will be key evaluative criteria, including the effects of policy options on the fulfillment of private and public goals. Publications, presentations, websites, and other media will provide the channels through which outreach and extension programs deliver the project's findings to the relevant stakeholder groups.

Progress 10/01/04 to 09/30/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The project concluded with a committee decision to develop and submit a related project proposal that slightly retargets the committee's goals and efforts toward (1) issues emanating from the financial crisis; and (2) issues related to financial linkages in the agricultural sector related to renewable and green energy sources. The new project was approved as NC-1177. Other outputs included materials available through the committee website that were presented at the annual meeting, and importantly, materials developed through a new arrangement to share one meeting day at the annual meeting with the National Agricultural Credit Committee. Reports from major industry sectors including insurance company providers were supplied in forms unavailable in any other forum. PARTICIPANTS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
One important outcome is a new design in the annual meeting formats between the National Ag Credit Committee and the NC Regional Finance committee to share a common day in their meetings to facilitate the exchagne of information and research needs between the academic and corporate participants.

Publications

  • Rejesus, R.M, Sherrick, B.J., Schnitkey, G.D. and Escalante, C. 2008. Factors influencing producer's perceptions about the importance of government support programs in agriculture: Application of a semi-parametric ordered response model. Applied Economics,v.39 (June 2008):66-83.
  • Lu, Y., Ramirez, O.A., Rejesus, R.M., Knight, T.O. and Sherrick, B.J. 2008. Empirically evaluating the flexibility of the Johnson family of distributions: A crop insurance application. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, v. 37, no.1, (April 2008):79-91.
  • Velandia, M., Rejesus, R.M., Knight, T.O. and Sherrick, B.J. 2009. Factors affecting farmers' utilization of agricultural risk management tools: The case of crop insurance, forward contracting, and spreading sales. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 41, 1(April 2009):107-123.
  • Barry, P.J., Sherrick, B.J. and Zhao, J. 2009. Integration of value- at-risk and expected utility under departures from normality, Agricultural Economics, 40 (2009) 691-699.
  • Paulson, N.D. and Sherrick, B.J. 2009. Impacts of the financial crisis on risk capacity and exposure in agriculture. Invited paper at the 2009 AAEA annual meetings and subsequent publication in Dec. 2009 AJAE.


Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The NC-1014 group held its annual meeting on September 25-26, 2008 in Kansas City, Missouri. The group also participated with the National Agricultural Credit Committee in one day of their annual meeting with shared sessions related to the Farm Bill and Ethanol Markets. Approximately 110 individuals attended the joint meetings. The group organized several projects and met with Federal Reserve officials who described issues related to the (then) contemplated TARP bailout program. The UI participants (Ellinger, Paulson, Sherrick) also submitted a proposal for an invited paper session at the Annual AAEA meetings. The annual meeting also serves as a unique forum for academic and industry participants to meet and discuss research interactions and contemporary issues facing the industry. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Discussions have begun about replacing some of the capacity to maintain agricultural finance materials as a result of the loss of capacity of the ERS finance branch due to its reorganization. We have been given a slot on the National Ag Finance Committee meeting for development of that relationship for the future. The regional group publishes proceedings as well and maintains a website with an archive of prior meeting proceedings as well. That process and originating files were developed at the University of Illinois.

Publications

  • Paulson, N.D. and Babcock, B.A. 2008. Get a GRIP: Should area revenue coverage be offered through the farm bill or as a crop insurance program? Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 33(2): 137-153.
  • Paulson, N.D., Babcock, B.A., Hart, C.E. and Hayes, D.J. 2008. An insurance approach to risk management in the ethanol industry. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 37(1): 51-62.
  • Rejesus, R.M, Sherrick, B.J., Schnitkey, G.D. and Escalante, C. 2008. Factors influencing producer's perceptions about the importance of government support programs in agriculture: Application of a semi-parametric ordered response model. Applied Economics, v. 39, (June 2008), pp.1-12.
  • Ellinger, P.N. and Sherrick, B.J. 2008. Financial markets in agriculture. Farmdoc IFEU series paper, http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/IFEU/index.html, December 2008, (6 pgs).


Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The NC-1014 committee, Agricutural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, held our annual meeting October 4-5, 2007 at the U.S. Headquarters of Rabo-Agrifinance in St. Louis, MO. Approximately 60 people attended representing a broad cross section of academics and practitioners involved with agricultural finance. The group also visited the Anhueser-Busch stables and main commodity receiving location. The program is available at: http://www.agfin.ifas.ufl.edu/files/2007_tentative_agenda.pdf. PARTICIPANTS: Univertsity of Illinois Professors Bruce Sherrick, Ani Katchova, Paul Ellinger and Nicholas Paulson. TARGET AUDIENCES: Participants in Agricultural and Rural Financial Markets. These include, but are not limited to, farm credit institutions, agricultural borrowers, agribusinesses involved in the supply of financial capital to producers, policy makers involved in farm bill debates with emphasis on the credit title, and researchers across the U.S. involved in ag and rural finance.

Impacts
The group developed materials to support organized session submission materials for the annual meeting of the AAEA. In addition, proceedings and website materials were developed.

Publications

  • Hennings, E. and Katchova, A.L. 2007. Growth strategies of farm businesses: A quantile regression approach. The Journal of the American Academy of Business 12(2007) (In Press).
  • Katchova, A.L. 2008. A comparison of the economic well-being of farm and nonfarm households. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 90(2008) (In Press).
  • Farley, T. and Ellinger, P. 2007. Factors influencing borrowers preference for lenders. AFR, Fall 2007: 211-224.
  • Ellinger, P., Barnard, F.L. and Wilson, C. 2007. Financial stages of a farmer's life: Effects on credit analysis measures. Journal of American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, 2007 18-26
  • Paulson, N.D., Babcock, B.A., Hart, C.E. and Hayes, D.J. 2007. An insurance approach to risk management in the ethanol industry. 2008. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review (Forthcoming).
  • Babcock, B.A. and Paulson, N.D. 2007. Crop insurance: Inside or outside the farm bill? Iowa Ag. Review 13(1): 1-3, 9.
  • Egelkraut, T.M, Garcia, P. and Sherrick, B.J. 2007. The term structure of implied forward volatility: Recovery and informational content in the corn futures market. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, v.89, no.1(February 2007):1-11.
  • Egelkraut, T.M, Garcia, P. and Sherrick, B.J. 2007. Options-based forecasts of futures prices in the presence of limit moves. Applied Economics, v.9(2007):145-152.
  • Rejesus, R.M, Sherrick, B.J., Schnitkey, G.D., Escalante, T.M, Garcia, P. and Sherrick, B.J. 2008. Factors influencing producer's perceptions about the importance of government support programs in agriculture: Application of a semi-parametric ordered response model. Applied Economics (Forthcoming).


Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/06

Outputs
University of Illinois researchers are leading an effort to develop background and educational materials related to Basel II and its impact on lending in agricultural settings. As proposed, the Basel II accord could significantly alter the risk weighting applied to agricultural finance loans for purposes of measuring risk-based capital at financial institutions. The committee anticipates a future session at annual meetings and a proposoal to the AAEA related to a special session or organized symposium related to Basel II. In addition, researchers at Illinois have developed a web-based survey related to use of banking services and views related to ag-lenders by borrowers. The results are likely to support a wide range of collaborative research activities within the group.

Impacts
The work of the committee is expected to improve the function and performance of agricultural finance markets. The efforts of the committee will also improve the effectiveness of researchers addressing issues affecting providers and users of agricultural capital.

Publications

  • Huang, H., Miller, G.Y., Sherrick, B.J. and Gomez, M.I. 2006. Factors influencing Illinois farmland values. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, v.88, no.2(May 2006):458-70.
  • Egelkraut, T.M, Sherrick, B.J. and Garcia, P. 2006. The term structure of implied forward volatility in the corn futures market.American Journal of Agricultural Economics (Forthcoming).
  • Egelkraut, T.M, Garcia, P. and Sherrick, B.J. 2006. Options-based forecasts of futures prices in the presence of limit moves. Applied Economics (Forthcoming).
  • Rodriguez-Zas, S.L., Davis, C.B., Ellinger, P.N., Schnitkey, G.D., Romine, N.M., Connor, J.F., Knox, R.V. and Southey, B.R. 2006. Impact of biological and economic variables on optimal parity for replacement in swine breed-to-wean herds. Journal of Animal Science. September 1, 2006; 84, 9 (2006): 2555 - 2565. (Forthcoming).
  • Ellinger, P.N., Hartsarska, V. and Wilson, C. 2006. Structure, performance and risk management of financial institutions. Agricultural Finance Review. Fall 2006. (Forthcoming).
  • Ellinger, P., Barnard, F. and Wilson, C. 2006. Financial stages of a farmers life: Effects on credit analysis measures. American Journal of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers.
  • Moss, C.B. and Katchova, A.L. 2006. Farmland valuation and asset performance. Agricultural Finance Review 66(2006). (In Press).
  • Katchova, A.L., Miranda, M.J. and Gonzalez-Vega, C. 2006. A dynamic model of individual and group lending in developing countries. Agricultural Finance Review 66(2006). (In Press).


Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/05

Outputs
Participants from 12 cooperating universities and various government agencies including ERS and the Fed met on October 2-4, 2005 in Minneapolis to develope plans for the following objectives: (1) Determine the effects of changes in international competitive balance and federal and state policies affecting agriculture on the financial and economic performance of farms, agribusinesses and rural financial markets; (2) Determine the effects of market, policy, and structural change in the agricultural and financial market sectors on the financial soundness, safety, and management of financial institutions that supply financial capital to agriculture; (3) Evaluate the management strategies, capital needs, and financial performance required for the long-term sustainability of firms in the food and agribusiness sector; and (4) Develop linkages between emerging issues in rural finance and development and the role of social capital and rural entrepreneurship. Measure the impact of social capital on the economic development and performance of agricultural and rural communities. Each subcommittee submitted a reoprt to be included in the minutes of the annual meeting and to be included at the NC 1014 website when the proceedings of the meeting are published.

Impacts
Improved access to information related to the function and performance of agricultural finance markets. Specific efforts are also being udnertaken to replace some of the materials previously published by ERS by the discontinued group in agricultural finance.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period