Developing Strategies to Plan and Model Wildland Fire and Fuels Management

Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA
COLLEGE OF FORESTRY AND CONSERVATION
MISSOULA,MT 59812

Performing Department
COLLEGE OF FORESTRY AND CONSERVATION

Non Technical Summary
As a precaution, fire managers suppress wilderness fires that have the potential to burn outside the wilderness and cause unacceptable damages. Due to this practice, managers often learn after they have suppressed a fire that the fuels in the area surrounding the wilderness would not have resulted in unacceptable damage had the fire been allowed to burn. This research will improve the availability of information for fire-managers so that more beneficial fires can be allowed to burn in wilderness areas, without incurring unacceptable risks of damages associated with fires burning outside of the wilderness

Animal Health Component

100%

Research Effort Categories

Basic

(N/A)

Applied

100%

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
122	0699	1070	100%

Knowledge Area
122 - Management and Control of Forest and Range Fires;

Subject Of Investigation
0699 - Trees, forests, and forest products, general;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology;

Goals / Objectives
1) To develop a tool that can be used to design landscape scale fire and fuels management plans 2) To help managers effectively use the entire suite of fuel reduction strategies available to them and 3) To help break the circle of risk and suppression that currently limits effectiveness of fire management programs nationwide

Project Methods
1) Develop a GIS-based model that quantifies both risks and benefits from fire across landscapes that uses a) topography, vegetation, and weather as input b) three pilot study sites representing multiple fuel types and different geographic areas within the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness and other test areas c) continuous manager input & feedback from the study sites to guide model development, and d) output compatible with multiple database structures and computer platforms to ensure use across multiple agencies 2) Use the model to identify high priority areas on the landscape for fuels treatments and to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative strategies for reducing overall fire risk

Progress 08/23/00 to 09/30/04

Outputs
Models were modified and tested so they could be applied to the general problem of fuels management in wilderness landscapes. Analyses showed that the probability of burning on an annual basis is very low across the entire landscape and therefore the annual risk to values in the wildland urban interface is quite low. Most of the interface zone is subject to less than a 1 in 50 year risk. There are areas within this zone where the risk is substantially higher and where fuels management and public education should be focused. An important finding is that ignitions within the wilderness contribute little to the risk in the interface when compared to the ignitions within the interface itself. Most of the probability of burning in the interface is from fires starting in the interface, not from fires starting within the wilderness. Therefore, fire prevention efforts focused in the interface may be the most effective strategy for reducing risk to life and property.

Impacts
An important finding is that ignitions within the wilderness contribute little to fire risk in the interface when compared to the ignitions within the interface itself. Climatic variability plays a key role in determining relative risk. Climate modeling needs to be integrated with risk analyses to provide better decision support tools for managers.

Publications

Miller, C. 2003. The spatial context of fire: a new approach for predicting fire occurrence. Pages 27-34 in K.E.M. Galley, R.C. Klinger, and N.G. Sugihara (eds.). Proceedings of Fire Conference 2000: The First National Congress on Fire Ecology, Prevention, and Management. Miscellaneous Publication No. 13, Tall Timbers Research Station, Tallahassee, FL.