Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/10
Outputs
OUTPUTS: A study of the preparedness of Arkansas grain and oilseed processing firms was completed. This study is based on a survey which elicited information about events related to facility security, expenditures on facility security and adoption and implementation of measures to make the facility more secure. The study findings show that few Arkansas grain and oilseed firms have experienced security attacks. Further it found that not all facilities are fully secure and are meeting regulations associated with bio-terrorism legislation. PARTICIPANTS: Vivek Nemane, Graduate research assistant Diana Danforth, Research Program Associate Rita Carriera, Research Program Associate TARGET AUDIENCES: Grain and oilseed companies and industry officials, government regulators and administrators PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
Publication of the study results are in process. It is expected to stimulate discussion and concern about the level of preparedness by grain and oilseed processing facilities in Arkansas and perhaps elsewhere.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09
Outputs
OUTPUTS: A study on the policy and price impacts of Liberty Link 601 rice contamination in the US was completed. A study of trade arrangments in the international rice market was conducted to determine if trade policy adjustments contributed to the 2008 international rice price spike. PARTICIPANTS: Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu, University of Tennessee, Simla Tokgoz, International Food Policy Research Institute, Eddie Chavez, University of Arkansas, Yarui Li, University of Arkansas, Andrew McKenzie, University of Arkansas, Michael Thomsen, University of Arkansas. TARGET AUDIENCES: Academic researchers and international organizations. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
Exporter trade bans and restrictions and relaxation of import barriers by key importers explained a large part of the 2008 international rice price spike. The rice contamination study found immediate and significant short-run US price suppression.
Publications
- Li, Y., Wailes, E.J., McKenzie, A. and Thomsen, M.R. 2010. LL601 contamination and its impact on U.S. rice prices. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 42,1(February 2010):1-8.
- Yu, T-H, Tokgoz, S., Wailes, E., and Chavez, E. 2009. A quantitative analysis of trade policy reponses to high agricultural commodity prices. Contributed paper, International Association of Agricultural Economists 2009 Conference, August 2009, Beijing China. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/51805
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Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08
Outputs
OUTPUTS: A survey questionnaire was developed to study bio-terrorism in the grain and oilseed sector. Waiting for regional project leadership to develop contract to collect information. No progress to report on this activity. A study on the DR-CAFTA trade agreement using a CGE model was conducted. The purpose was to examine the effects of the agreement on the economy of Honduras and on the producers of senstive products including maize, rice and bean, which were given back-loaded tariff reform concessions in the trade agreement. PARTICIPANTS: Eric Wailes, Principal Investigator Alvaro Durand-Morat, Graduate Student TARGET AUDIENCES: U.S. and Central Amercian agricultural policy decision-makers PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.
Impacts
The DR-CAFTA trade agreement study found that the effect on the Honduran economy and producers of sensitive products was marginally negative. However, adoption of complementary policies that encourage foreign direct investment and productivity growth in the agricultural sector above historical trends will promote resource reallocation necessary to obtain positive impacts from the DR-CAFTA agreement.
Publications
- Durand-Morat, Alvaro. 2009. Coping with DR-CAFTA: Assessing the impact of the agreement and designing adjustmentprograms for sensitive agricutlure in Honduras. Ph.D. Disseration. University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas. In Press.
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Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Conference on Bio-terrorism and Natural Disasters: Market and Policy Responses was held in Washington, DC. A survey questionnaire on bio-terrorism in the grain and oilseed industry was developed.
PARTICIPANTS: Rita Carreira, research associate
TARGET AUDIENCES: Policy decision makers, industry personnel and research and extention professionals.
Impacts
Attendees at the conference "Bio-terrorism and Natural Disaster: Market and Policy Responses was attended by congressional staff, grain industry personnel, academicians. New knowledge on the issues and status of preparedness to detect, respond to and deter bio-terrorism was presented.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/06
Outputs
Doha Round agreement proposals by the U.S., EU, G-10, and G-20 groups were analyzed with regard to impacts on the global rice economy. A study of the impact on rice trade of the use of sensitive product designation in the Doha Round was also evaluated. These studies focused on the impact on the U.S. rice sector and found that because rice is highly protected in global and regional markets that trade reform has potentially large beneficial effects on the U.S. rice industry. The comprehensive proposals were examined with the Arkansas Global Rice Model, which is a component of the FAPRI analysis. The U.S. proposal was also evaluated using a CGE model (GTAP) that examines rice, other product markets and factor market impacts. The analysis shows use of sensitive product designation reduces the potential gains and does not improve the economic welfare of the U.S. rice sector.
Impacts
The studies on trade agreements have been presented to professional, industry and public policy decision-makers to highlight the impacts of these agreements on the U.S. rice sector. Analysis of the strategies to address potential bio-terrorism threats will be conducted in 2007. A survey of grain elevators will be conducted to identify actions taken and willingness to adopt security systems.
Publications
- Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook. FAPRI Staff Report 06-FSR 1. http://www.fapri.iastate.edu/outlook2006/text/10Rice.pdf
- Chavez, E.C. and E.J. Wailes. 2006. Production consumption, trade and price projections of the U.S. and global rice economy, 2005-2006. Proceedings, 31st Rice Technical Working Group Meeting, The Woodlands, TX, February, 2007. http://www.uaex.edu/RTWG/Meetings.htm
- Mane, Ranjitsinh. 2007. Impact of the trade reform under the Doha Round of WTO negotiations on global rice trade. M.S. thesis. Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR.
- Mane, R and E.J. Wailes. 2006. Impacts of trade liberalization results from the Arkansas Global Rice Model. Proceedings, 31st Rice Technical Working Group Meeting, The Woodlands, TX, February, 2007. http://www.uaex.edu/RTWG/Meetings.htm
- Mane, R. and E. Wailes. 2006. Impact of trade liberalization in rice: assessing alternative proposals. Selected paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association annual meeting, Long Beach, CA. July 2006. http://agecon.lib.umn.edu/cgi-bin/pdf_view.pl?paperid=21930&ftype=.pd f
- Durand-Morat, A. and E. Wailes. 2006. Sensitive product designation in the Doha Round: the case of rice. Proceedings, 31st Rice Technical Working Group Meeting, The Woodlands, TX, February, 2007. http://www.uaex.edu/RTWG/Meetings.htm
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Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/05
Outputs
Analyses of the Doha Round agreement proposal by the U.S. and the CAFTA-DR agreement were completed. These studies focused on the impact on the U.S. rice sector and found that because rice is highly protected in global and regional markets that trade reform has potentially large beneficial effects on the U.S. rice industry. The U.S. proposal was examined with the Arkansas Global Rice Model, which is a component of the FAPRI analysis. It was also evaluated using spatial equilibrium models, a partial equilibrium framework that differentiates rice by type and degree of milling and a CGE model (GRAP) that examines rice, other product markets and factor market impacts. The analysis shows that the U.S. proposal would reduce domestic price and income supports but has beneficial effects, only if the market access to highly protected rice markets is opened. The CAFTA analysis shows that the impact on U.S. rice is relatively small initially because the liberalization of rice
markets is back-loaded in that agreement. Expansion of tariff rate quotas into the Central American market for both rough and milled rice however becomes significant over the life of the agreement. An analysis of the economic consequences of higher energy prices, hurricanes and drought to Arkansas agriculture was conducted. This study found that Arkansas net cash farm income was reduced by over $900 million in 2005. The dependence of irrigation for crop agriculture in Arkansas is a serious challenge especially for rice and soybean production. Analysis of investing in on-farm reservoirs under alternative land tenure arrangements was completed. Much of the crop acreage is rented in Arkansas. This poses a challenge to absentee landlords and farm operators to justify investment in irrigation infrastructure needed to supplement the declining ground water supply. The analysis provides a farm level optimization model to determine appropriate on-farm reservoir size under alternative tenure
circumstances.
Impacts
The studies on trade agreements have been presented to professional, industry and public policy decision-makers to highlight the impacts of these agreements on the U.S. rice sector. Analysis of the higher energy prices, and impacts of hurricanes and drought have been used by public-policy decision-makers to examine the need for disaster assistance for Arkansas farmers.
Publications
- 1.Wailes, Eric J. 2005. Rice global trade, protectionist policies, and the impact of trade liberalization. In Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries. Eds. M. Ataman Aksoy and John C. Beghin. World Bank. January, 2005.
- 2. Durand-Morat, A. and E. Wailes. Trade and protection: the case of GM rice adoption and acceptance. Paper presented at the 9th ICABR International Conference on Agricultural Biotechnology, Ravello, Italy, July 6-10, 2005. Available at: http://www.economia.uniroma2.it/conferenze/icabr2005/papers/Wailes_an d_Durand_paper.pdf
- 3. Wailes, E.J. and A. Durand-Morat. 2005. Impacts of WTO Policy on U.S. Rice Policy. Selected paper presented at the World Trade Organization Impacts on U.S. Farm Policy Conference. New Orleans, LA. June, 2005.
- 4. Durand-Morat, A. and E.J. Wailes. 2005. General and Partial Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of CAFTA on the U.S. Rice Sector. Selected Paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association Meeting. Providence, RI. July, 2005. at: http://agecon.lib.umn.edu/cgi-bin/pdf_view.pl?paperid=16263&ftype=.pd f
- 5.Wailes, E.J, B. Watkins, R. Hogan, B Coats, M. Cochran. Estimates of Arkansas Agricultural Economic Losses in 2005. SP03 2005 Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville. at: http://www.uark.edu/depts/agriecon/Arkansas_Ag_Losses_2005.pdf
- 6. Hignight, J., E.J. Wailes, J. Popp, and J. Smartt. 2005. Economic analysis of on-farm reservoirs under alternative land tenure arrangements. Farm Management and Marketing Newsletter. December, 2005. University of Arkansas, Cooperative Extension Service.
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