Source: NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIV submitted to NRP
STRATEGIES FOR ECONOMIC RENEWAL OF RURAL NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0200110
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2004
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2010
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIV
(N/A)
RALEIGH,NC 27695
Performing Department
AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS
Non Technical Summary
Many North Carolina rural counties are undergoing structural economic change. This is resulting in a changing occupational mix and altered earnings potential. Identify the extent of structural change in North Carolina rural counties. Identify plausible economic development strategies for counties in coping with the change.
Animal Health Component
73%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
73%
Developmental
27%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
60860503010100%
Goals / Objectives
Many of North Carolina's rural counties are undergoing economic restructuring. Traditional manufacturing industries are downsizing, and productivity gains in agriculture and agribusiness are changing employment opportunities in those industries also. The objectives of the research are to (1) document the structural changes ongoing in North Carolina's rural counties, (2) evaluate the earnings of occupations added to the earnings of occupations lost (3) identify plausible economic development strategies for counties copoing with structural change (4) identify public education strategies that can be used to improve the educational performance of students
Project Methods
Published data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. Census Bureau, the North Carolina Department of Commerce, and the North Carolina Employment Security Commission will be used to identify North Carolina counties undergoing structural change (objective 1) and to evaluate the changing occupational structure of those counties (objective 2). A literature review will be undertaken to identify plausible economic development strategies that have been successful in other regions and which can be adopted to North Carolina. Factor and regression analysis will be used to categorize North Carolina counties by the most likely successful strategy (objective 3). Collaboration with researchers at the N.C. Department of Public Instruction in using their student-level data will produce public education strategies for improved student performance (objective 4).

Progress 10/01/04 to 09/30/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Approximately 300 meetings across the state of North Carolina were conducted on economic renewal and strategies for promoting economic development in localities. These meetings were conducted in conjunction with the North Carolina Cooperative Extension Service, the North Carolina Association of County Commissioners, and the North Carolina Association of Certified Public Accountants. Statewide conferences on the subject matter were conducted by the North Carolina State University Emerging Issues Forum and the North Carolina League of Municipalities. A computer model developed by the principal investigator for the North Carolina Department of Commerce to assess the economic impact of new business location was refined and revised during the course of the project. PARTICIPANTS: North Carolina Association of County Commissioners North Carolina League of Municipalities North Carolina General Assembly North Carolina Department of Commerce North Carolina Association of Certified Public Accountants North Carolina State University Emerging Issues Forum TARGET AUDIENCES: Legislators County Commissioners Elected municipal officials Governor's office Department of Commerce PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
The project has had both impacts on knowledge and actions in North Carolina. Combining local meetings, statewide conferences, and media presentations, a minimum of 100,000 people in the state have been made aware of the economic condition of North Carolina and strategies for addressing economic development issues. A legislative study commission agreed that the changed economic structure of the state implied a needed overhaul of the state's tax structure to be more competitive in attracting new businesses. The Governor's Economic Development Board included components of the project's findings in their action plan for state economic growth. The computer model operated by the state Department of Commerce and incorporating elements of the project has been used in business investments totaling over $1 billion during the life of the project.

Publications

  • Walden, Michael L. and Gunce Eryuruk, 2010, "Economic and Political Determinants of Highway Spending in North Carolina", second review at Public Budgeting and Finance.
  • Walden, Michael L. "A Revolution in Responsibilities: Implications of Changing Roles and Financing of Government in North Carolina", Popular Government, 74, 2, Winter 2009: 4-15.


Progress 10/01/08 to 09/30/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The outputs of this research have been disseminated in several ways, including: 1) county and regional meetings and conferences within North Carolina - 80 such meetings directly reaching over 3000 participants, 2) presentations to public organizations, including county and state groups such as county commissioners, city mangers, and the state department of commerce 3) popular news articles - 75 such articles carried by over 40 newspapers and periodicals in the state. PARTICIPANTS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. TARGET AUDIENCES: Target audience includes state and local economic development officials, county commissioners, city managers, and local civic groups. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
The results of this research have been included in the recommendations of the Governor's Economic Development Board, particularly regarding the grouping of counties into "labor commuting zones" for planning purposes and the strategy of linking local economic development efforts to local centers of higher education.

Publications

  • Walden, Michael L. "Impact of the University of North Carolina System on the Economy of North Carolina", November 2008.
  • Walden, Michael L. NORTH CAROLINA IN THE CONNECTED AGE, Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2008, 333 pages.
  • Walden, Michael L. and Gunce Eryuruk, 2009, "Economic and Political Determinants of Highway Spending in North Carolina", Under review at Public Budgeting and Finance


Progress 10/01/07 to 09/30/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The changing structure of the North Carolina economy was studied and analyzed for the period 1970 to 2005. The analysis included: (1) measuring industry and employment contributions and changes thereof during the time period, (2) identifying changes in socioeconomic characteristics of demographic and occupational groups, (3) developing logical geographical sub-regions of the state and noting industry, employment, and demographic changes for each region, (4) cataloging public policies and shifts in public policies in reaction to socioeconomic trends during the time period and (5) conducting empirical studies to link exogenous factors to economic outcomes of regions and people in the state. Economically growing, stagnating, and declining regions of the state were identified and appropriate public policies to address each group were highlighted. In connection with the UNC Tomorrow Commission, regional meetings were held across the state to access varying economic conditions and challenges. PARTICIPANTS: Dr. Michael L. Walden, William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University. TARGET AUDIENCES: Target audiences for the project include business persons, state and local elected officials, civic organizations, and university faculty. The target audiences are reached through on-going efforts by the project investigator involving statewide and regional meetings, media programs, popular press articles, and conferences. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
The project investigator has become aware of the dynamics of the North Carolina economy and the determinants of economic progress for households, workers, and regions in the state. The project investigator has become aware of the exogenous forces impacting North Carolina's economy and how those forces are having different impacts on households, workers, and regions. The knowledge acquired by the project investigator has been included it the UNC Tomorrow Commission report that serves as a roadmap for applying university resources to the state's economic issues.

Publications

  • Walden, M. L. (2008) North Carolina in the Connected Age: Challenges and Opportunities in a Globalizing Economy. Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press.
  • Walden, M. L. (2008) "A Revolution in Responsibilities: Implications of Changing Roles and Financing of Government in North Carolina", Popular Government, 73, 4 In Press.


Progress 10/01/06 to 09/30/07

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Assembly of data were completed and analysis was performed to address the following questions: 1) how have individual economic sectors in North Carolina been influenced by trend factors of the past thirty years 2) how have individual classes of workers in North Carolina been influenced by trend factors of the past thirty years 3) how have individual regions in North Carolina been influenced by trend factors of the pat thirty years Standard regression analysis was used to fit models for the data used to address each question. The models were successful in linking trend factors to dependent variables for each question. Narratives were written describing the work, and the narratives were linked to previous research and to a set of hypotheses formulated for each question. TARGET AUDIENCES: Target audiences include state legislators, public policy, business, and trade organizations, the UNC Board of Governors, and other state and locally elected leaders.

Impacts
The findings were used to generate a set of conclusions describing how the North Carolina economy has been affected by broad domestic and international forces in the past thirty years. The conclusions were used to inform and influence decision-making in two forums: the State and Local Fiscal Modernization Study Commission of the North Carolina General Assembly, and the University of North Carolina Tomorrow Commission. The forums considered how tax and educational policies at the state level can be used to further economic growth objectives in counties and regions.

Publications

  • Michael L. Walden. North Carolina in the Connected Age: Challenges and Prospects in the Modern Economy. The University of North Carolina Press, in press for 2008.


Progress 10/01/05 to 09/30/06

Outputs
A contract was signed with the University of North Carolina press to publish the results of the project as a book for academic audiences as well as for policy makers and other interested parties. Initial drafts were completed for four chapters: introduction, the national context, the macroeconomics of change in North Carolina, and the microeconomics of change for individual industries. The focus of these chapters is on the structural change in the North Carolina economy over the past thirty years with implications for the future. Future chapters will address impacts on people, places, and policies.

Impacts
The project will increase our understanding of structural change in the North Carolina economy and help formulate policies and strategies for coping with the change.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 10/01/04 to 09/30/05

Outputs
Work for the project was organized into multiple components, including identification of industry change in North Carolina, measurement of this change on people and communities in the state, and evaluation of alternative public policies for economic renewal. Data were assembled for the industry change phase. Discussions were held with UNC Press for ultimate publication of the findings in a book for policy-makers, and a favorable response was received.

Impacts
Public policy makers and private leaders will better understand the forces affecting the rural North Carolina economy and will be better prepared to make informed decisions for commercial renewal.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period