Progress 07/01/04 to 06/30/06
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Climate variability causes considerable economic risk to the management of agricultural, forest, and water resources in the Southeastern United States. Climate extremes associated with drought, floods, freezing temperatures, and hurricanes can be predicted with increasing levels of skill. Our research team has developed considerable information on impacts of climate variability on agriculture and forest in the Southeast U.S., as well as identifying management options that reduce risks from climate stresses or take advantage of anticipated favorable climate conditions. We have also developed an excellent working relationship with the Cooperative Extension Services. The goal of this project is to provide timely and relevant information about expected climate conditions and management options that can benefit a wide range of agricultural and forest producers, water resource managers, and other decision makers. Our overall objective is to design, develop, and implement a web-based Agriculture, Climate, and Water Resource Information and Decision Support System for use by farmers, ranchers, foresters, water resource managers, and those who advise them (e.g. Extension Services, consultants, others). A web system is being designed to provide relevant climate forecast information and agriculture/forest/water management response options at two spatial scales; county and state/regional. The design is modular to accommodate new decision aids as they are produced and it will provide access to information for specific commodities and climate conditions. Our interdisciplinary, multi-institutional team of researchers is working with Extension Specialists and agents as well as farmers, ranchers, foresters, and water resource managers to develop the web-based system. Our objectives also include the evaluation of the ACWIDSS design and potential value to producers and their advisors. The outcome of this project will be a highly visible, modular and evolutionary system that links research and extension efforts to provide information on climate variability and climate forecasts to end users as well as management options for reducing risks and increasing profitability. PARTICIPANTS: Dr. James J. O'Brien, Project Director, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), Florida State University Dr. James W. Jones, Institutional P.I., Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida Dr. David Letson, Institutional P.I., Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS) , University of Miami Dr. Gerrit Hoogenboom, Institutional P.I., Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department, University of Georgia Dr. John Christy, Institutional P.I., Earth Systems Science Center, University of Alabama-Huntsville Upton Hatch, Institutional P.I., Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Society, Auburn University Dr. Keith Ingram, SECC Coordinator and Co-P.I., Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida Dr. Guillermo Podesta, Co-P.I., RSMAS, University of Miami Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, Co-P.I., Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, RSMAS, University of Miami Collaborative Arrangements Dr. J. J. O'Brien, Florida State University, was responsible for the overall project, including coordination of work performed in subcontracts, coordinating meetings, and reporting findings to USDA-CSREES. Dr. K. T. Ingram, University of Florida, supported project coordination as part of his responsibility for coordination of the Southeastern Climate Consortium, including facilitation, collaboration and communication among institutions, writing reports, and serving as liaison among investigators, the SCREES project manager, and other regional climate research teams. Florida State University served as the host institution, with the other five universities linked via subcontracts. Key personnel on the proposed project had extensive experience in research on climate variability, its affects on agricultural systems, and on the potential value of climate forecasts to reduce economic risks to producers in the Southeastern USA. The team included experts in climate modeling, crop modeling, agricultural systems, hydrologic modeling, meteorology, and economics, and includes State Climatologists from three states. In addition, the investigators developed close cooperation with Extension Services and were involved in training activities aimed at providing Extension Agents with the understanding of climate an weather impacts on agricultural systems that these agents will need in order to effectively teach client groups how to use the climate forecast tools developed in the project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Developed the web-based decision support system AgClimate (www.agclimate.org) for dissemination of climate forecast information and management options. AgClimate will function as the primary outlet for dissemination of SECC climate information, tools and research results to the pertinent user groups. Extension Services in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama - Hosted workshops to present SECC activities and decision support tools to County Agents and farmers. Camilla, GA January 26 Dawson, GA February 10 Headland, AL February 11 Tifton, GA March 22 Statesboro, GA March 24 State Forestry Commissions Florida Division of Forestry Georgia Forestry Commission Private farmers, producers, foresters - also represented at Extension workshops Water resource managers - South Florida Water Management District, LOWP Engineers PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.
Impacts
Florida State University has completed the preparation of a historical weather observation database for the Southeast U.S. The final database contains over 50 years of daily weather observation for over 200 weather stations in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. The weather data has been quality controlled and reformatted to use as input to DSSAT crop models. New graphics showing probabilistic climate forecast information have been developed and are being evaluated by stakeholders for usability. The monthly wildfire risk forecast was produced and disseminated in 2004 and through March of 2005. FSU continued work in coupling output from their Global Climate Model and Regional Spectral Model with DSSAT crop models. University of Florida is in the process of assembling a historical crop yield database for multiple commodities, which will be analyzed for impacts of climate variability. Work has begun on the integration of agricultural (DSSAT) and hydrologic models (WAM) to evaluate relationships of alternative management practices with runoff water amounts and quality. Also worked with Soil Water Engineering Technologies (SWET) investigating applications of climate forecasts to manage the watershed above and including Lake Okeechobee. UF has expanded climate risk analysis for new crops via modeling to include cotton, corn, and pasture. University of Miami has developed a prototype farm-scale model to evaluate the value of climate forecasts and their interaction with government farm programs in peanut-cotton-corn farms of the Southeast U.S. Implemented and evaluated a non-parametric weather generator for the synthesis of realistic daily weather streams consistent with a seasonal climate forecast. Used the Vensim modeling tool for dynamic simulations assessing the current and prospective use of climate information in decisions affecting water supply to agriculture. Developed methodologies for applying simulations and case study applications. University of Georgia-Athens has calibrated and evaluated crop models for Georgia, Alabama, and Florida, evaluated and used WGENR model to generate daily solar radiation values for use in the crop models. Developed data base of simulated crop yields for peanut producing counties in the Southeast. Developed spatial decision support tools and applications that extend point predictions to regional crop production. Auburn University has investigated the economic implications of climate and yield forecasts and net returns in selected Alabama and Georgia counties. Developing an Extension program aimed at the dissemination of decision support tools and information to agricultural stakeholders. Examined the use of crop insurance as a risk management tool given certain climate forecasts using optimization models. University of Alabama-Huntsville examined the coincidence of hydrologic and agricultural drought with the expansion of the Lawn-and-Garden-Moisture-Index (LGMI) to include Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Displays were also developed for the Palmer Drought Index and Crop Moisture Index. Preliminary analysis has begun of the relative use of water by crops in the Southeast versus use by natural vegetation.
Publications
- Smith, A., M. Lamb, U. Hatch, S. Jagtap and L. Johnson. 2005. Projected impacts of climate change on Southeastern peanut production. Peanut Science 00:00-00. (Submitted)
- Cabrera, V.E., Hildebrand, P.E., Jones, J.W. 2005. Modelling the effect of household composition on the welfare of limited-resource farmers in Coastal Canete, Peru. Agricultural Systems 00:00-00. (In Press)
- Guerra, L.C., G. Hoogenboom, V.K. Boken, J.E. Hook, D.L. Thomas, and K.A. Harrison. 2005. Evaluation of the EPIC model for simulating crop yield and irrigation demand. Trans. ASAE 47:00-00. (In Press)
- Irmak, A., J.W. Jones, and S.S. Jagtap. 2005. Evaluating methods for using crop models to predict climate impacts on regional soybean yields. Trans. ASAE 00:00-00. (Submitted)
- Mavromatis, T. & Jagtap, S.S. 2005. Estimating solar radiation for crop modeling using temperature data from urban and rural stations. Inter Research Climate Research 29(3):233-243
- Messina, C.D., J.W. Jones, K.J. Boote, and C.E. Vallejos. 2005. A gene-based model to simulate soybean development and yield responses to environment. Crop Science 00:00-00. (Submitted)
- Miralles-Wilhelm, F., P. Trimble, G.P. Podesta. D. Letson and K. Broad. 2005. Climate-based sstimation of inflow into Lake Okeechobee, FL. American Society of Civil Engineers, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 00:00-00. (In Press)
- Paudel, K., A. Limaye, U. Hatch, J. Cruise, and F. Musleh. 2005. Development of an optimal water allocation decision tool for major crops during water deficit periods in the Southeast U.S. Natural Resource Modeling 00:00-00. (Submitted)
- Paudel, K., and Upton Hatch. 2005. Assessing the Impacts of Global Warming in the Southeast US Agriculture Using Optimization and Economic Forecasting Procedure." Land Economics (Submitted)
- Satorre, E.H., Bert, F., F. Ruiz Toranzo and G.P. Podesta. 2005. Climatic information and decision-making in maize production systems of the Argentinean Pampas. Agricultural Systems 00:00-00. (Submitted)
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