Progress 10/01/03 to 09/30/07
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Results of the research activities of this project have been disseminated in five basic ways. First, we maintain an active website at http://www.ndsu.nodak.edu/sdc/ which receives over 2,000 unique visitors monthly. Second, we have released a series of monthly bulletins with associated press releases that reach every media outlet in the state. Third, we have published research findings in technical reports and academic publications. Fourth, we have given public presentations, seminars, and community forums regarding our research findings to a wide range of audiences. Finally, we have worked directly one-on-one with policy makers in assisting them both understand and interpret the research findings. The most significant output from this project was a joint research conference combined with the W1001 research project. This conference was coordinated with the USDA-ERS and held in Washington, D.C. and brought policy makers and researchers from across the nation together to discuss rural population change and its implications. PARTICIPANTS: Participants included: Dr. Richard Rathge, Karen Olson, Kay Schwarzwalter, Ramona Danielson, Kendra Erickson, and Jordyn Nikle. Partner organizations included: North Dakota Department of Commerce, North Dakota Housing Finance Agency, Cass County Public Health, Clay County Public Health, AARP, and USDA. The project provided graduate training for students at North Dakota State University. TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audience included policy makers, community officials, state agencies, and the general public. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: No major problems were encountered.
Impacts
The major impacts of this project were threefold. First, policy makers gained new insight and appreciation for the changing demographics of the state and region. This was demonstrated by an increase in requests for demographic information (e.g., unique hits on our website have grown annually by 12 percent) and presentations to policy forums. Second, knowledge of shifting demographics have led to policy initiatives including legislation (e.g., youth initiative) and the creation of fact-finding committees. Finally, communities and organizations have taken action to change their environment. For example, numerous communities have conducted housing needs assessments to prepare for their growing elderly population. Other communities have initiated strategic planning to shift their economic development focus. In addition, through foundation support (e.g., Northwest Area Foundation's New Horizons project), a group of communities are actively engaged in community asset building.
Publications
- Nikle, J., Schwarzwalter,K., Danielson,R., Erickson,K., and Rathge, R. (2007). Environmental Health Survey for Central and Western Minnesota: June 2007 Survey Results. North Dakota. North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota.
- Olson, K., and Rathge,R. (2007). 2007 Kids Count Factbook, North Dakota Kids Count, North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota.
- Olson, K. and Rathge, R. (2007). Population Bulletin Series (monthly), North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota.
- Rathge, R., Danielson, R., Olson, K., and Schwarzwalter, K. (2007). 2007 Housing Demand Analysis for Wimbledon, North Dakota. North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota.
- Rathge, R. (2007). The Economic Impact of the Senior Population on a State's Economy: The Case of North Dakota. North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota.
- Danielson, R., Rathge, R., and Olson, K. (2007). 2006 Wage Comparability Study: North Dakota Head Start and Early Head Start. North Dakota. North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota.
- Erickson, K., Danielson,R., and Rathge, R. (2007). North Dakota Strategic Planning Community Assessment: 2007 Survey Results. North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota.
- Danielson, R., Schwarzwalter,K., and Rathge, R. (2007). MSUM Secondhand Smoke Study of Students and Faculty Staff. North Dakota. North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota.
- Danielson, R., Schwarzwalter,K., and Rathge, R. (2007). MSCTC-Moorhead Secondhand Smoke Study of Students and Faculty Staff. North Dakota. North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota.
- Nikle, J., Danielson,R., Olson,K., and Rathge, R. (2007). North Dakota Strategic Planning Profile. North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota.
- Olson, K. and Rathge, R. (2007). Economic Briefs Series (monthly), North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota.
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Progress 10/01/05 to 09/30/06
Outputs
The project focus this year was an examination of the economic impact of North Dakota's growing elderly population. Currently, 14% of the state's population are at least 65 years of age; a proportion that will increase to over 20% over the next decade. Detailed age-specific data from the 2000 Census was used to model income generation within the state. The relative proportion of earners by type (e.g., wage/salary, self-employment, interest, Social Security, etc.) was modeled using age-specific population projections to determine the impact of income generation as a result of the shifting age profile over the next 15 years. Findings indicate that a significant reduction in wage/salary earnings will occur because of the retirement of babyboomers. The modeling simulation indicates that losses to the state in wage/salary income among the 34-54 age group alone will total nearly $1 billion when contrasting 2000 with 2020. Part of these losses will be offset by gains among
those 55 and over. Nonetheless, an overall loss of nearly $420 million between the two years is projected which will have serious consequences on statewide revenues because of losses in payroll taxes. In contrast, significant gains will be made in income derived from Social Security, interest, and retirement. These gains are projected to outpace losses, yet the implications on the redistribution of taxable revenues is still significant.
Impacts
This project is expanding policy makers' understanding of the underlying reasons for the population decline in rural areas of the Great Plains. It is expected that the results will provide insight into ways to improve rural community economic development.
Publications
- Rathge, Richard, 2006. The Demographic Future of the Great Plains. Paper presentated at the annual meeting of the Rural Sociological Society, Louisville, KY. Aug. 10-13.
- Rathge, Richard, 2006. The Economic Impact of the Senior Population on a State's Economy: The Case of North Dakota. North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota State University, Fargo: North Dakota.
- Rathge, Richard, 2005. The Changing Population Profile of the Great Plains. Great Plains Sociologist, 17(2):82-99.
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