Progress 10/01/03 to 09/30/08
Outputs
Agriculture is changing rapidly with the advent of biotechnology and the introduction of large numbers of exotic species. The impact of these changes affect whole regions of the country necessitating the development of methods of analysis that can predict the impact these changes will have on the environment and on the soci-economics across varied ecological ranges. My laboratory has developed physiologically based models of the response of species within crop systems to weather and changes in their composition (the introduction of new invasive species) and in agronomic practices (e.g. genetic modification of the crop). Our models have proven quite general and allowed us to interact with economists, mathematicians and other biologists in the analysis of the problems/benefits that may result. A significant advancement was the development of a general geographic information system (GIS) that embeds our models and drives them with weather data, and to conduct regional
analyses of the system. Among the systems evaluated were: the efficacy and need for transgenic cotton against pink bollworm in California and Arizona; the potential for the biological control of yellow star thistle in California grazing land; an analysis of the biological control of vine mealy bug in grape in California; an analysis of olive and olive fly ecology in Arizona, California and Italy. An important component of all of the studies was the effect of climate change on the distribution and abundance of the species in each system. A summary of many of these results can be found in a report prepared for the Governor of California (http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/climate_action_team/reports/index.ht ml. Additional research was done on the bio-economics of East African agro-pastoral systems in the face disease challenge (tsetse fly/trypanosomiasis, tick borne diseases, and malaria in humans)
Impacts
Good estimates of the effects of climate change on various crops and their pests in California have been developed including changes in geographic favorability, distribution and abundance with the potential for estimating economic damage.
Publications
- Ponti, Luigi, Miguel A. Altieri, Andrew Paul Gutierrez (2007) Effects of crop diversification levels and fertilization regimes on abundance of Brevicoryne brassicae (L.) and its parasitization by Diaeretiella rapae (M'Intosh) in broccoli. Agricultural and Forest Entomology 9: 209-214.
- Gutierrez, Andrew Paul, Luigi Ponti, C. Ken Ellis and Thibaud d'Oultremont (2008) Climatic Change Effects on tritrophic systems. Climatic Change 87: 167-192
- Gutierrez, A. P and S. Ponsard, 2006. Physiologically based model of Bt cotton-pest interactions: I. Pink bollworm: resistance, refuges and risk. Ecological Modelling 191:346-359.
- Gutierrez, A. P., J.J. Adamcyzk Jr. and S. Ponsard. 2006. A Physiologically based model of Bt cotton-pest interactions: II. bollworm-defoliator-natural enemy interactions. Ecological Modelling 191: 360-382.
- Gutierrez, A.P. and J. Baumgartner (2007). Modeling the dynamics of tritrophic population interactions. In M. Kogan and P. Jepson eds., Perspectives in Ecology and Integrated Pest management, Cambridge University Press.
- Gutierrez, A.P., M.A. Pizzamiglio (2007) Physiologically-based GIS model of weather mediated model of competition between a parasitoid and a coccinellid predator of oleander scale. Neotropical Entomology 36(1):70-83.
- Gutierrez, A.P., K.M. Daane, Luigi Ponti, Vaughn M. Walton, C.K. Ellis, (2007) Prospective evaluation of the biological control of the vine mealybug: refuge effects. J. Appl. Ecol. 44: 1-13.
- Baumgartner, J., Gianni Gilioli, Getachew Tikubet, Andrew Paul Gutierrez. (2008) Eco-social analysis of an East African agropastoral system: management of tsetse and bovine trypanosomiasis. Ecological Economics 65:124-135. Tikubet, G., L. Belayhun, A. Sciarretta, G. Gilioli,T. Hagos, P. Trematerra, A.P. Gutierrez, J. Baumgartner. Eco-social effects of community participatory tsetse (Glossina spp.) (Diptera Glossinidae) and bovine trypanosomiasis management at Luke, Southwestern Ethiopia. Boll. Zool. Agr. Bachic. Ser. II, 38 (3): 225-236.
- Pemsl, D., Waibel, H., Gutierrez, A.P. (2007). The Economics of Biotechnology under Ecosystems Disruption. Ecological Economics.
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Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/06
Outputs
The development and refinement of physiologically based tri-trophic models for the major cropping systems and some weeds continues to be the major focus of our work. Among the systems models are those for alfalfa, common bean, cassava, coffee, cotton, grape, olive, rice, and the noxious weed yellow starthistle. Considerable progress has been made in the development of a general geographic information system (GIS) to use the models for regional analyses and the linkage to the models to it. This linkage requires that the weather data from the region be assembled and error checked (i.e. 125 locations in California and 30 in Arizona). The weather data is used to run the model for each location and the geo-referenced data written to a table for mapping by the GIS using kreiging methods. The GIS system may also be used to map geo-referenced field data. The same data are used for marginal analysis to determine the large effects of various factors on output variables of
interest. The system has been used to assess climate warming effects on several of the systems (olive/olive fly/olive scale/oleander scale; grape/ vine mealybug system; climate change effects on the distribution and abundance of pink bollworm and climate warming effects on the control of yellow star thistle. The same model has been used to assess the geographic distribution and abundance of olive fly in California and Italy/Sardinia. The model-GIS system was the basis for our contribution to the report to the Governor of California on climate change. New systems models may be added and extant systems may be up graded and revised as appropriate.
Impacts
The development of our novel modeling - GIS system allows for the analysis of complex agro- and natural ecosystems across various geographic regions having a variety of ecological zones. The systems have application across crop systems, geographical areas, and climate change scenarios. The system can be easily expanded to include new models and data, and update existing models.
Publications
- Gutierrez, A.P., Ponti, L., Ellis, C.K. and d'Oultremont, T. 2006. Analysis of climate effects on agricultural systems: A report to the Governor of California sponsored by the California Climate Change Center. http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/climate_action_team/reports/index.htm l.
- Gutierrez, A.P., and Pizzamiglio, M.A. 2007. Physiologically based GIS model of weather mediated model of competition between a parasitoid and a coccinellid predator of oleander scale. Neotropical Entomol.
- Gutierrez, A.P., Ellis, C.K., d'Oultremont, T. and Ponti, L. 2006. Climatic limits of pink bollworm in Arizona and California: effects of climate warming. Acta Oecologica 30:353-364.
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Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/05
Outputs
Physiologically based model analyses of the ecological effects of Bt cotton has been completed, and an economic analysis of its efficacy is in progress. Analyses of the the biological control of of vine mealybug on grape, oleander scale on olive, and the noxious weed yellow starthistle have been completed. Models imbedded in a geographic information system (GIS) have been developed and used to project pest severity across Arizona and California. An important analysis was to estimate the climatic limits of pink bollworm concluding that the pest cannot invade the Central Valley of California. Analogies between ecological and economic theory have been formulated and published. This has led to the development of a unified model of both fields.
Impacts
The modeling/GIS methods developed will help put the field of biological control and IPM on a solid scientific basis. For example, the modeling analysis questions the efficacy of the transgenic Bt technology in California cotton, and the ongoing USDA pink bollworm suppression campaign in the great Central Valley of California. Other analyses suggest that past biological control efforts on yellow starthistle have been misguided, and shows how research guided by physiologically based model would lead to better selection of biological control agents for the control of exotic pests.
Publications
- Gutierrez, A. P and S. Ponsard, 2006. Physiologically based model of Bt cotton-pest interactions: I. Pink bollworm: resistance, refuges and risk. Ecological Modelling 191:346-359.
- Gutierrez, A. P., J.J. Adamcyzk Jr. and S. Ponsard, 2006. A Physiologically based model of Bt cotton-pest interactions: II. bollworm-defoliator-natural enemy interactions. Ecological Modelling 191: 360-382.
- Gutierrez, A.P. and J. Baumgartner, 2006. Modeling the dynamics of tritrophic population interactions. In M. Kogan and P. Jepson eds., Perspectives in Ecology and Integrated Pest management, Cambridge University Press.
- Gutierrez, A.P., L. Ponti, C.K. Ellis and T. d'Oultremont, 2006. Analysis of climate effects on agricultural systems: A report to the Governor of California sponsored by the California Cilate Change Center. http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/climate_action_team/reports/index.htm l.
- Gutierrez, A.P., Regev, U. 2005. The bioeconomics of tritrophic systems: applications to invasive species. Ecological Economics 52:382-396.
- Gutierrez, A.P., Pitcairn, M.J., Ellis, C.K., Carruthers, N., Ghezelbash, R., 2005. Evaluating biological control of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis) in California: A GIS based supply-demand demographic model. Biological Control 34: 115-131.
- Gutierrez, A.P., 2005. Tritrophic effects in Bt cotton. Bull. Sci. Tech. & Society. 25: 3540-360 Gutierez, A.P., 2004. Sustainable Agriculture: The Role Of Integrated Pest Management, Chapter 11. Praxis Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.
- Pemsl, D., H. Waibel and A.P. Gutierrez, 2005. Why do some Bt-cotton farmers in China continue to use high levels of pesticides? International J. Agric. Sustainabily 3:44-56.
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Progress 01/01/04 to 12/31/04
Outputs
A Windows based ARC INFO 8 geographic information system (GIS) that embeds weather driven physiologically based crop systems models has been developed and is now being used to examine regional crop production and pest issues. Among the current crop pest models are alfalfa, cotton, common bean coffee, grape, yellow starthistle and rice. The GIS allows other crop models to be easily included in the system and used for analysis. Analysis of the biological control of yellow starthistle has been completed explaining the failure of the 25-year biological control program and suggesting new approaches for control. An analysis of the climatic limits of the pink bollworm in California and Arizona have been completed showing that the pest is unlikely to extend its range into the San Joaquin Valley of California. Global warming scenarios were also examined for this pest. The biological control of vine mealybug is currently on going. The GIS output is also written to a file in a
form amenable to econometric analysis. This allows the regional results to be summarized in a readily comprehensible manner. The efficacy of transgenic cotton (Bt-cotton) in California has been analyzed for ten major pests. The analysis suggests that in the short run the benefits of Bt cotton are positive, but in the long run non-target effects on natural enemies and tolerance in some pests as well as the specter of resistance increase complexity rather than decreasing it. The technology is not needed in the San Joaquin Valley and short season cotton obviates its usefulness in the desert valleys of Southern California. Several publications on these works are currently in press.
Impacts
The modeling/ GIS system makes possible analyses that heretofore in tractable dynamic regional pest problems. The system allows the development of rational region policy on pest control.
Publications
- Pemsl, D., Waibel, H., Gutierrez, A.P. 2003. Productivity analysis of Bt cotton: A case study from Shandong province, China. Paper presented at the 7th ICABR Conference on Public Goods and Public Policy for Agricultural Biotechnology. Ravello, Italy, June 29 to July 3.
- Gutierrez, A.P. 2004. An ecological perspective on the analysis of Bt cotton. Redia LXXXVI: 1-4.
- Gutierrez, A.P., Regev, U. 2005. The bioeconomics of tritrophic systems: applications to invasive species. Ecological Economics 52:382-396.
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Progress 10/01/03 to 12/31/03
Outputs
More than 95% of the applications of biotechnology in agriculture have been in the area of pest control. A common technology in insect pest control is the use of transgenic plants or genetically modified organisms(GMOs) expressing the protoxins from the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis. The protoxin is transformed in the gut of some pests to the active toxin. The development of GM crops brings both considerable promise and controversy because unlike the chemical biocides of previous decades, their ecological impact is subtle and requires ecosystem level analyses to investigate the economic benefits of the technology. The focus of this research is on cotton, but the principles apply to other crops (i.e. maize and rice). The development of resistance to the Bt toxin is thought to be acute, stimulating the implementation of refuges of non-Bt crops to maintain susceptibility in pests. The cotton model we have developed includes the population dynamics of ten major cotton
pests, the simple genetics of resistance in moth pests, and the 28% decline in the efficacy of a major generalist natural enemy when feeding on Bt toxin intoxicated prey. Important factors mitigating pest interactions with Bt cotton are the decline in Bt toxin concentrations with plant and plant subunit age, and the feeding preference of pests for different kinds and ages of plant subunits. Incorporating this information into a systems model enables us to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of Bt cotton. The model has been used to realistically analyze the potential for resistance development in various pests with different levels of susceptibility, evaluate the efficacy of various refuge strategies for delaying resistance, and develop strategies for integrating Bt crops into IPM practices. Geographic information system (GIS). Considerable progress has been made in developing a GIS platform for embedding crop and pest models for weather driven regional analyses. The GIS
allows analysis of the entire United States. Among the crop systems included in the system are Bt cotton and ten of its major pest, olive-olive fly, grape-vine mealybug- shapeshooter system, the alfalfa food web, Bt maize, rice, cassava, and the exotic weed yellow star thisthistle (YST). A regional analysis of the biological control of YST has been made.
Impacts
The public will benefit by having a clear analysis of the ecological consequences of the Bt technology, by the reduction in pesticide use from appropriate integration of this technology into IPM strategies and by demonstrating the efficacy and need for the technology.
Publications
- Gutierrez, A.P. (2003) Some ecological consequences of transgenic Bt cotton. Metodi Numerici statistici e informatici nella difesa dell colture agrarie e delle foreste:ricrca e applicazioni. Notizario sulla protecezione delle piante. Number 15, pp.265-276.
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