Progress 03/15/04 to 03/15/09
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Changes in society have led to increased demands for forest goods and services. In addition, changes in the structure and characteristics of existing forests affect the ability of forests to meet societal needs such as solitude, biodiversity, adventure, and wood products. Supplying these benefits will affect both the quality of life and the standard of living in nearby communities and regional economies. Research is needed to evaluate and forecast the effects of resource production on forest extent and condition; the effects of changing forest ecosystem conditions and resource use patterns on human communities; and the effects of various policies and institutions on resource conditions, conservation goals, and communities. Research in this problem area has led to progress in the following areas: (1) forecasting forest fragmentation, (2) Forecasting land prices to target conservation, (3) development of models for forecasting forest conditions in the United States. Research in this area continues in RWU-SRS-4804 under problem area no. 4. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.
Impacts
Forecasting forest fragmentation. Unit scientists developed new forecasting methods coupled with satellite imagery to define where forest land is most likely to become highly fragmented in the future. Population and income forecasts are used to estimate future changes in the amount of interior forests within a county to the year 2010. Loss of interior forests is expected to be especially high in certain ecological sections, including the southern Appalachian piedmont in the Carolinas, the Gulf prairies and marshes in Texas,andthe Florida coastal lowlands. Forecasting land prices to help target conservation activities. Another study evaluates the use of forest land prices as both signals of future development and a way of gauging the potential effectiveness and costs of conservation activities. Land prices are speculative by definition,so they incorporate information regarding anticipated future uses of the land and resources. Astudy of spatial patterns of assessed forestland prices in Georgia shows rising nontimber values in certain locations and suggests shifts in the future use of land and resources.Rising timberland values also portend changes in land uses in some more rural counties.In these areas it appears that low-density residential growth and recreational values are having an impact on the uses of timberland that is greater than previously thought. Population projections identify where current investments in conservation would have the maximum effect on conservation goals.Forecasting forest conditions in the U.S. The unit was asked to take the lead in developing the 2010 RPA Assessment.To support this and other assessment activities the unit is leading the development of the US Forest Assessment System.The USFAS intends to address the following broad objective: to provide a framework for forecasting forest conditions in the U.S., and the ecosystem services that flow from these resources in response to social/economic, environmental,and policy changes.Research is progressing to build models around two principle domains: the Forest Uses domain that forecasts wood products markets and land uses and the Forest Dynamics Domain that forecasts changes in forest inventories in response to uses and to climate changes.Under the Forest Dynamics Domain, researchers are evaluating projection methods for inventory plots.Initial research has focused on methods to test for structural change in area-frame inventories, identifying redundant state variables in the inventory (defines a compact information set),and comparing information contained in historical periodic inventories and current continuous inventories. Models have been completed for 5 southeastern states, with prototypes underway in the Pacific Northwest and the Northern regions as well.Under the Forest Uses Domain, we have updated and validated the Global Forest Products Model and expanded the model to incorporate more detail regarding the US wood products marekts.This component will be used to evaluate and forecast regional markets for US Forest Products within the context of a global market system.Models also address changes in land use and the area of forestland in the US.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 10/01/06 to 09/30/07
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The USFAS is being designed and developed to support multiple resource assessments including the 2010 RPA Assessment and the ongoing Southern Forest Futures Project. USFAS intends to address the following broad objective: The principle technical objective of the USFAS is to provide a framework for forecasting forest conditions in the United States and the ecosystem services that flow from these resources in response to social/economic, environmental, and policy changes.
PARTICIPANTS: o Forest Products Laboratory o Pacific Northwest Station o University of Wisconsin
Impacts
Research is progressing in two principle domains: the Forest Uses domain that forecasts wood products markets and land uses and the Forest Dynamics Domain that forecasts changes in forest inventories in response to uses and to climate changes. Under the Forest Dynamics Domain, researchers are evaluating projection methods for inventory plots. Initial research has focused on methods to test for structural change in area-frame inventories, identifying redundant state variables in the inventory (defines a compact information set), and comparing information contained in historical periodic inventories and current continuous inventories. Models have been completed for 5 southeastern states, with prototype development in process in the Pacific Northwest and the Northern regions as well. Under the Forest Uses Domain, researchers have updated and validated the Global Forest Products Model and expanded the model to incorporate more detail regarding the US wood products marekts.
This component will be used to evaluate and forecast regional markets for US Forest Products within the context of a global market system. Research is following two tracks. One is a modeling framework for aggregate analysis and forecasting of forest and timber markets in the US. The other is highly detailed analysis of factors influencing regional demands for solid wood products
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 10/01/03 to 09/30/04
Outputs
A pair of studies has developed new methods for targeting conservation activities in a developing landscape. The first uses forecasting methods coupled with satellite imagery to define where forest land is most likely to become highly fragmented in the future. Population and income forecasts are used to estimate future changes in the amount of interior forests within a county to the year 2010. An application to the southeastern United States shows that models provide significant explanatory power regarding the observed distribution of interior forest. Forecasts of interior forest, based on population and economic growth projected for the region, are shown to differ by ecological section and province and by Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Loss of interior forests is expected to be especially high in certain ecological sections, including the southern Appalachian piedmont in the Carolinas, the Gulf prairies and marshes in Texas, and the Florida coastal lowlands.
Sixty six percent of loss of interior forests will be in urban counties, highlighting the conservation importance of the urbanizing fringe of several cities. Among the ten MSAs that will lose the most interior forest, seven are found in Florida. These forecasts provide a mechanism for prioritizing and targeting areas for more detailed study and for conservation efforts. The second study evaluates the use of forest land prices as both signals of future development and a way of gauging the potential effectiveness and costs of conservation activities. In well-functioning markets, forest land prices capture a wealth of information regarding current as well as anticipated uses of land and resources contained on it. Land prices are speculative by definition, so they incorporate information regarding anticipated future uses of the land and resources. A study of spatial patterns of assessed forestland prices in Georgia shows rising nontimber values in certain locations and suggests shifts in
the future use of land and resources. As expected, land prices anticipate future development of forested land at the periphery of urbanizing areas. Rising timberland values also portend changes in land uses in some more rural counties. In these areas it appears that low-density residential growth and recreational values are having an impact on the uses of timberland that is greater than previously thought. Anticipated population and income growth in the South could hold important implications for both the supply of timber and the conditions of forestland in a large portion of the region. These projections could be used to identify where (in which counties) current investments in conservation would have the maximum effect on conservation goals.
Impacts
This pilot study indicates that carefully conducted citizen surveys can help forest managers and policy makers identify management alternatives preferred by the public and that such information can add balance to public debates regarding forest policy. The methodology is currently being extended and refined for application to forest ecosystems in the U.S. South.
Publications
- Mercer, D.E.; Alavalapti, J. 2004. Summary and future directions. In: Alavalapti, J.; Mercer, D.E. eds. Valuing agroforestry systems, methods and applications. 2. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. 303-310.
- Mercer, D.E.; Snook, A. 2004. Analyzing ex-ante agroforestry adoption decisions with attribute-based choice experiments. In: Alavalapti, J.; Mercer, D.E. eds. Valuing agroforestry systems, methods and applications. 2. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. 237-256.
- Turner, M.G.; Pearson, S.M.; Bolstad, P.; Wear, D.N. 2003. Effects of land-cover change on spatial pattern of forest communities in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (USA). Landscape Ecology. 18(5): 449-464.
- Alavalapti, J.; Mercer, D.E. 2004. Valuing agroforestry systems, methods and applications. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. 314 p. eds.
- Alavalapti, J.; Mercer, D.E.; Montambault, J.R. 2004. Agroforestry systems and valuation methodologies: an overview. In: Alavalapti, J.; Mercer, D.E. eds. Valuing Agroforetry Systems, Methods and Applications. 2. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. 1-8.
- Donoghue, E.M.; Cubbage, F.W.; Mercer, D.E. 2003. Contract NGOs in community-based forest management in the Philippines. Journal of Sustainable Forestry. 17(4): 47-73.
- Ellefson, P.V.; Hibbard, C.M.; Kilgore, M.A. 2003. Federal and state agencies and programs focused on nonfederal forests in the United States: an assessment of intergovernmental roles and responsibilities. Completion report; 167. USDA Forest Service. St. Paul, MN: University of Minnesota. 157 p.
- Ellefson, P.V.; Moulton, R.J.; Kilgore, M.A. 2003. Public agencies and bureaus responsible for forest management and protection : an assessment of the fragmented institutional landscape of state governments in the United States. Forest Policy and Economics. 5(3): 207-223.
- Mercer, D.E. 2004. Adoption of agroforestry innovations in the tropics: a review. In: Nair, P.K.R.; Rao, M.R.; Buck, L.E. eds. New vistas in agroforestry, a compendium for the 1st world congress of agroforestry, 2004. 1. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. 311-328.
- Mercer, D.E. 2004. Adoption of agroforestry innovations in the tropics: a review. Agroforestry Systems. 61(1): 311-328.
- Ellefson, P.V.; Moulton, R.J.; Kilgore, M.A. 2001. Programs and organizations affecting the use, management, and protection of forests: an assessment of agencies located across the organizational landscape of state governments. Completion report; USDA Forest Service. St. Paul, MN: University of Minnesota. 119 p.
- Ellefson, P.V.; Moulton, R.J.; Kilgore, M.A. 2002. An assessment of state agencies that affect forests. Journal of Forestry. 100(6): 35-41.
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Progress 10/01/02 to 09/30/03
Outputs
Researchers developed new methodology for estimating the non-market value of alternative forest management systems and demonstrated an application of the methodology in the state of Maine. Results of the empirical application showed that people are willing to pay a considerable amount for forest management practices that reduce the biological and amenity impacts of timber harvesting on forest ecosystems. Willingness to pay for reduced-impact harvesting alternatives reflects the public's concern with a variety of goods and services associated with healthy forest ecosystems, including the sustainable provision of timber, recreational opportunities, wildlife habitat, and aesthetically pleasing views. These findings are consistent with our previous observations that contingent forest values vary in predictable ways, implying that there may be unobserved spatial patterns to forest values. These, in turn, provide input for local land use planning decisions. This pilot study
indicates that carefully conducted citizen surveys can help forest managers and policy makers identify management alternatives preferred by the public and that such information can add balance to public debates regarding forest policy. The methodology is currently being extended and refined for application to forest ecosystems in the U.S. South.
Impacts
This pilot study indicates that carefully conducted citizen surveys can help forest managers and policy makers identify management alternatives preferred by the public and that such information can add balance to public debates regarding forest policy. The methodology is currently being extended and refined for application to forest ecosystems in the U.S. South.
Publications
- Buongiorno, J.; Raunikar, R. 2003. Chapter 21: economics and the management of forests for wood and amenity values. In: Young, R.A.; Giese, R.L. eds. Introduction to Forest Ecosystem Science and Management. 3d ed. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 457-469.
- Englin, J.E.; Holmes, T.P.; Sills, E. 2003. Chapter 19: estimating forest recreation demand using count data models. In: Sills, E.; Abt, K.L. eds. Forests in a market economy. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. 341-359.
- Holmes, T.; Boyle, K.J.; Teisl, M.F.; Roe, B. 2002. A comparison of conjoint analysis response formats: reply. American Agricultural Economics Association. 84(4): 1172-1175.
- Holmes, T.P.; Boyle, K.J. 2003. Chapter 18: stated preference methods for valuation of forest attributes. In: Sills, E.; Abt, K.L. eds. Forests in a market economy. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. 321-340.
- Kramer, R.A.; Holmes, T.P.; Haefele, M. 2003. Chapter 17: contingent valuation of forest ecosystem protection. In: Sills, E.; Abt, K.L. eds. Forests in a market economy. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. 303-320.
- Pattanayak, S.; Abt, K.L.; Holmes, T.P. 2003. Chapter 14: timber and amenities on nonindustrial private forest land. In: Sills, E.; Abt, K.L. eds. Forests in a market economy. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. 243-258.
- Raunikar, R.; Buongiorno, J. 2003. A macro approach to forest amenity valuation. Amacher, G.S.; Sullivan, J. eds. Virginia Beach, VA: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University: 21-40.
- Sills, E.; Lele, S.; Holmes, T.P.; Pattanayak, S. 2003. Chapter 15: nontimber forest products in the rural household economy. In: Sills, E.; Abt, K.L. eds. Forests in a market economy. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. 259-281.
- Smith, V.K.; Pattanayak, S. 2002. Is meta-analysis a Noah's ark for non-market valuation. Environmental and Resource Economics. 22: 271-296.
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Progress 10/01/01 to 09/30/02
Outputs
No progress to report.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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