Source: OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY submitted to NRP
REGIONAL INTERNET AND GIS-BASED MULTIPLE PEST FORECASTING AND RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
SPECIAL GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0196966
Grant No.
2003-34103-13840
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
2003-05053
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Aug 1, 2003
Project End Date
Jul 31, 2005
Grant Year
2003
Program Code
[QQ]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY
(N/A)
CORVALLIS,OR 97331
Performing Department
BOTANY AND PLANT PATHOLOGY
Non Technical Summary
Growers require site-specific weather data to manage pests and diseases where terrain varies, since elevation, slope, and aspect all strongly affect local temperature, rainfall, and other factors that are used to run predictive pest models. Such site-specific data and model predictions are especially needed in the Pacific Northwest to help farmers to make better decisions about management of pests in tree fruit crops. Growers need integrative weather data and pest models to improve pest management decision making, and to reduce costly sprays that may be harmful to humans and the environment. A world-wide-web site is being developed that uses both public and grower-supported weather stations plus computer-based approaches to better estimate pest and disease risk in crops and orchards, including locations in between weather stations. This approach will reduce the cost of obtaining site-specific weather data and pest modeling information, to improve pest control practices. This project will allow, in areas having a small network of weather stations, the ability to estimate weather at all locations so that even those with unusual climates can be served. This system has potential for expansion to help for virtually all crops and growing regions, and is initially being developed for pear scab, fireblight, and codling moth pests in the Hood River and Medford Oregon tree fruit growing regions.
Animal Health Component
40%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
15%
Applied
40%
Developmental
45%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
2163110117015%
2163110207015%
2164010117015%
2164010207015%
2164020117020%
2164020207020%
Knowledge Area
216 - Integrated Pest Management Systems;

Subject Of Investigation
4010 - Bacteria; 4020 - Fungi; 3110 - Insects;

Field Of Science
2070 - Meteorology and climatology; 1170 - Epidemiology;
Goals / Objectives
This project has four objectives, which together will contribute to the goal of development and test of a spatial modeling framework for multiple insect and disease models and decision tools. These tools will provide single-site forecast and risk estimates across entire growing regions at the temporal and spatial scales necessary for helping growers reduce risk of pest losses, reduce pesticide use, and thus improve production economics. 1) Develop a web and GIS map -based application server for integration and delivery of daily and 15-minute weather data and multiple insect pest and disease risk forecast models. 2) Develop and validate the system in two separate production regions, representing different levels of topographic variability, targeting pear scab, fire blight, and codling moth as key pest species. 3) Implement and deliver pest forecast and risk predictions via extension supported web and email-based pest alert systems, and undertake on-farm validations and economic analysis. Support free distribution of the modeling and GIS technologies for other regions and pests. 4) Incorporate maintainance and updating of the system within the core programs of the IPPC, supported by IPM and Pest Management Centers (PMC) funding.
Project Methods
1) We will work to develop pest models, GIS, and the web for specific pests, and as a general tool that may be extended to other regions and models. Steps will include: a) Collect real time weather data from several public and grower-run weather networks. b) Develop databases of pest model parameters, historical weather data and climate maps, and local regional parameters. c) Expand and improve single site pest models, with real time web delivery of model estimates. d) Using GIS and statistical methods, produce near-real time interpolation of weather data and decision support related products of weather data (e. g. pest outbreak risk maps). e) Use web-based GIS for production of interactive, online pest risk maps and other decision support tools. f) Utilize web and email-based pest alerts as a means of delivery of risk model results. 2) In general, validation of weather parameters, pest models, and GIS mapping procedures, will be conducted by regional collaborators and IPPC staff, as advised by Oregon Climate Service staff. We will use a variety of micro- and meso scale studies of weather parameter variability with respect to canopy density, terrain features (elevation, slope, and aspect), time of day, and season. Field sampling for micro-scale studies will focus on within-orchard phenomena, such as shade, windspeed, proximity to roads and water sources. We will conduct field validations as appropriate to each targeted pest (pear scab, fireblight, and codling moth), using established methodologies in use at the Mid-Columbia and Medford Experiment Station facilities. 3) We will work with all region Extension agents and stakeholders in the proper use and integration of this program into existing IPM, organic, and integrated fruit production (IFP) programs. Initially, as a pilot system, we will seek feedback from stakeholders by a series of local meetings, for suggested improvements and features that will be used to refine the system in subsequent versions of the application. Evaluation of the project will involve a) yearly economic analysis of grower pesticide use practices and losses in all three regions, emphasizing compounds and pests covered by this project; b) yearly one or two page producer surveys; and c) collection of feedback and insights gained from all stakeholders involved. For the economic analysis, growers will be selected that have orchard packouts available for a block by block analysis, and a partial budget analysis will be performed by an agricultural Economist. 4) All technologies developed will be sustained and maintained by IPPC staff with core state and federal level IPM funding. IPM Information technologies are a long term commitment and emphasis at IPPC, and all projects are designed to include provision for long term support and management by long-term (core) staff. The above mentioned new or newly validated phenology models and GIS/modeling systems will be made freely available for public and private use.

Progress 08/01/03 to 07/31/05

Outputs
This project has provided numerous improvements to insect and disease risk predictions for many commodities and regions. These improvements have a depth and breadth across many pest situations, and provide a foundation for further ongoing developments in pest modeling. All of these models are currently delivered from the IPPC webserver page, http://pnwpest.org/wea. General features and improvements include: 1) We have expanded the online weather stations database to 3400+ stations (up from 900) throughout the 48 states plus Alaska and SW Canada; 2) A national index page provides map and GIS access to site-specific degree-days, online DD calculator, and custom DD mapmaking for the 48-state coterminous US; 3) A new webserver cluster that can scale up to serve needs for a national system; 4) A new method to estimate missing weather data using a "climatologically aided interpolation" algorithm, similar to that already used for local and national DD interpolations; 5) For 2006, a new Date of Phenological Event Prediction (DPEP) mapping system is planned that allows DDs to be converted to forecast dates; these should improve map interpretation and model adoption; 6) We expanded use of hourly or better weather data for plant disease models; 7) Five new pest models were added to the system, including Pandemis leafroller; a pest of tree fruits, small broomrape; a weed pest of red clover, and several others; 8) There is a new prototype system for running current and past data-driven generic disease models, configured to date for 4 disease models (to be deployed for testing Feb. 2006); 9) We have incorporated a new method for estimating leaf wetness into disease models, based on the published "fuzzy logic" algorithm of Kim et al; 10) We added an online survey system for end-user feedback; 11) We joined with a regional USDA funded weather systems workgroup which has conducted initial planning and collaborations to spatialize forecasts for multiple disease risk models. New developments pertaining specifically to the tree fruit regions Hood River and Medford, include: 1) We converted the Medford Adcon grower-run weather network to a new, more reliable system; 2) A 42+ station grower network in Hood River and The Dalles regions was added to the system; 3) We collaborated on a field project to develop a new codling moth model, because of shifting behaviors caused by mating disruption management practices; 4) A survey of grower management and online model usage practices in Hood River was conducted; 5) In Hood River, we conducted validation studies for both pear scab end of season and infection risk models; 6) In Hood River, we conducted laboratory studies on the response of pear scab to lower temperatures, and to compare the response between constant and fluctuating temperatures; 7) For 2006, we will begin testing a new fireblight risk mapping system. Altogether these improvements show continued progress towards offering weather-driven pest models that include variations due to terrain, and approach site-specific predictive capabilities.

Impacts
After two years, this project builds upon past efforts, and has continued to encourage grower adoption of IPM and online decision support tools that can lead to reduced pesticide usage, while further system developments are planned for 2006. Adoption of these tools via the website has increased steadily in recent years; for example actual total pest phenology model runs have increased from 10,000 in 2003 to over 15,000 in 2005. Codling moth model usage has remained around 2,000 runs per year for the past 3 years, which reflects that use of this model is a "standard practice" whereas other models are still growing in use. A survey conducted recently in Hood River demonstrated that growers and pest control advisors (PCAs) use the websites supported by this project in increasing numbers, and that many but not all growers continue to rely on advice from experts like PCAs rather than use the online tools themselves. All (100%) of the survey respondents who were PCAs found the website resulted in "more informed pest management recommendations", "more effective pest control", and "improved timing of applications". Similarly, 85% of these respondents reported "reduced pesticide use" and 76% reported at least somewhat better yields from using the website. Also, field validation studies demonstrated that in 2005, a year with 7 pear scab infection periods, use of the model could reduce sprays from 4 to 2 with effective control. Future efforts are planned that can hopefully improve model quality and adoption rates by integrating insect and pest forecasts into the system.

Publications

  • Spotts, R.A., Serdani, M., and Coop, L.B. 2005. Where has all the pear scab gone? Proceed. Oregon Horticultural Soc. Paper available at pome fruit section at: http://www.oregonhorticulturalsociety.org/newsletter/index.php
  • Coop, L, W. Bajwa, P. Jepson. Apr. 2003. Indianapolis Indiana. 4th National IPM Symposium/Workshop. Poster Abstract, "Online IPM Decision Tools In the Northwest".
  • Coop, L., P. Jepson. Apr. 2003. Online Site-Specific Degree-Day Predictions Using GIS and Climate Map Technologies. 4th National IPM Symposium/Workshop Poster Abstract. Indianapolis Indiana. Available from The Oregon IPM Newsletter, Integrated Plant Protection Center publication, http://oregonipm.ippc.orst.edu/On-Line DD.pdf
  • Bajwa, W., L. Coop, P. Jepson. Apr. 2003. Indianapolis Indiana. 4th National IPM Symposium/Workshop. Poster Abstract, "A Multi-Region Internet-based Extension Pest Alert System".
  • Song, Y., H. Riedl, L. Coop, M. Omeg, S. Castagnoli, and L. E. Long.Jan 2004. Portland, OR. "Development and validation of phenology models for predicting cherry fruit fly oviposition in the Mid-Columbia area". Poster, 44th Annual Pest Management Conf., Portland Oregon.
  • Coop, L. Aug 2005. Portland, OR. "Web-Based Decision Support Tools for Nursery IPM". Abstract of talk in Proc. Farwest Nursery Show Seminars.
  • Coop, L. B., P. Jepson, D. Upper. Oct 2005. Jeju Korea. "Weather networks and Internet-based expert systems as management tools for orchard IPM". Abstract. 5th Asia-Pacific Congress of Entomology.
  • Bajwa, W., L. Coop, M. Kogan. 2003. Integrated Pest Management (IPM) a nd Internet-Based Information Delivery Systems. Neotropical Entomology 32:373-383.
  • Castagnoli, S. P. 2006. Internet-based decision tools for orchard pest management - adoption in the Hood River Valley of Oregon. HortTechnology 16:1-6.
  • Coop, L. B. 2003. Degree-days for Pest Management: Website Decision Making Tools. Proceedings 5th Annual Small Fruit Growers Workshop. WSU Vancouver, March 19, 2003. pp. 60-62.
  • Coop, L. B. 2003. Northwest degree-day mapping calculator. Version 2.0 . Oregon State University Integrated Plant Protection Center Web Site Publication E.04-00-1: http://pnwpest.org/cgi-bin/nwmapmaker.pl
  • Coop, L. B. 2004. Web-based phenology models and degree-day calculator. Version 3.5. Oregon State University Integrated Plant Protection Center Web Site: http://pnwpest.org/cgi-bin/ddmodel.pl
  • Coop, L. B. 2005. U. S. degree-day mapping calculator. Version 2.5. Oregon State University Integrated Plant Protection Center Web Site Publication E.05-03-1: http://pnwpest.org/cgi-bin/usmapmaker.pl
  • Coop, L. B. 2005. Index to degree-day data and maps of USA. Oregon State University Integrated Plant Protection Center Web Site Publication E.05-03-2: http://pnwpest.org/US/index.html


Progress 01/01/04 to 12/31/04

Outputs
2004 season efforts include field work to gather more precise data on the timing and numbers of key tree fruit pests, focusing on pear scab and codling moth. Spatial modeling and pest forecasting tools are under development that will 1) provide site-specific pest risk and timing forecasts and 2) reduce the need for densely located weather station networks. In Southern Oregon and Hood River, we monitored codling moth flight and egg-laying in pear orchards to improve phenological models. Pesticide resistance levels were tested in Hood River to determine whether this is a factor in the recent trend of later-season and higher damages there. Also, new trap designs and pheromone lures were tested in S. Oregon for more accurate monitoring of adult flight patterns. In Hood River, fall season pear scab leaf infection inoculum surveys, in combination with improved models of infection risk and primary ascospore end-of season, were used to reduce fungicide treatments from 3 down to 1 for the 2004 season in experiment station orchards. Website developments over the past year have included easier to use programs for degree-day modeling, including enhancements recommended by growers and Extension personnel, integration of NOAA/NWS quantitative temperature and precipitation forecasts and maps, addition of more public weather networks in the W. USA, and steps towards the addition of two new grower-supported weather networks in The Dalles and the Willamette Valley of Oregon. Website and online models usage were surveyed in Hood River during early 2004. Preliminary findings showed that website usage was considered by a majority of both growers and pest control advisors to contribute to better informed and more effective pest control decisions, and to improved timing of pesticide applications. Economic surveys on pesticide usage are in preparation for the coming year. Field studies using transects of leaf wetness sensors were conducted to help show how local terrain can affect leaf wetness, results from which are needed for site-specific implementation of numerous plant disease models including apple and pear scab. Programming the web and GIS server is expected to improve topography-based spatial weather data interpolations of temperature, dew point, and leaf wetness, the basic weather inputs used in pest models, and to improve leaf wetness estimation formulas based on wind speed, temperature and dew point. Also, the ability to generate forecasted phenological event-date maps, such as codling moth egg hatch, is under active development. These event-date maps should increase grower adoption and support more informed pest management decisions where pest development varies in relation to terrain.

Impacts
Thus far this project has completed one of three years progress; future expected impacts are as stated in the non-technical project summary. In addition, however, this project extends developments of previous projects, which have impacts regarding use of agricultural and pest decision support models. The websites listed under publications are accessed by growers, consultants, and Extension personnel to aid in pest management decision making throughout the Northwest. These online models provide tools that often lead to reduced use of pesticides plus related economic and environmental benefits.

Publications

  • Coop, L. B. 2002. Online pear scab and powdery mildew risk model summaries for Hood River and Medford, Oregon. Oregon State University Integrated Plant Protection Center Web Site (e.g. Hood River: http://pnwpest.org/hr)
  • Coop, L. B. 2004. Online phenology models and degree-day calculator. Version 3.5. Oregon State University Integrated Plant Protection Center Web Site: http://pnwpest.org/cgi-bin/ddmodel.pl
  • Coop, L. B. 2004. Using Degree-Day Models in Pest Management. Proceedings 6th Annual Small Fruit Grower's Workshop. WSU Vancouver, March 23, 2004. pp. 21-26.
  • Knight, A. L., P. VanBuskirk, R. Hilton, B Zoller, and D. M. Light. 2004. Monitoring codling moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in four cultivars of pear. Acta Hort. (in press).


Progress 01/01/03 to 12/31/03

Outputs
Initially, as the project began Aug. 2003, we have been working to determine how leaf wetness, which influences infection risk for many plant diseases, varies with regard to terrain. Several temperature/leaf wetness sensors were purchased and others were borrowed to allow field tests with up to 17 sensors plus local weather stations. Thus far several tests were conducted, and several more will take place in the spring of 2004. Other developments include steps to the expansion of grower networks and data from networks in The Dalles and the Willamette Valley of Oregon, development of real time spatial statistical analysis techniques, and development of rapid PCR methods for fast assay of inoculum and infection levels of field populations of pear scab. All of these developments will contribute to the project goals of real-time site specific pest and disease model predictions for locations not having their own weather station, or access to models.

Impacts
Thus far this project is in an early stage; future expected impacts are as stated in the non-technical project summary. In addition, however, this project extends developments of previous projects, which have impacts regarding use of agricultural and pest decision support models. The websites listed under publications are accessed by growers, consultants, and Extension personnel to aid in pest management decision making throughout the Northwest. These online models provide tools that often lead to reduced use of pesticides plus related economic and environmental benefits.

Publications

  • Coop, L. B. 2002. Daily and interactive degree-day maps for the northwest: Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming. Online degree-day modeling and interactive GIS tools. Oregon State University Integrated Plant Protection Center Web Site (e.g. Idaho):
  • Coop, L. B. 2002. Online pear scab and powdery mildew risk model estimates for Hood River and Medford, Oregon. Oregon State University Integrated Plant Protection Center Web Site (e.g. Hood River):
  • Bajwa, W., L. Coop, M. Kogan. 2003. Integrated Pest Management (IPM) and Internet-Based Information Delivery Systems. Neotropical Entomology 32(3):373-383.
  • Coop, L. B. 2003. Northwest degree-day mapping calculator. Version 2.0. Oregon State University Integrated Plant Protection Center Web Site Publication E.04-00-1: