Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
4333 BROOKLYN AVE NE
SEATTLE,WA 98195
Performing Department
MANAGEMENT AND ENGINEERING
Non Technical Summary
Japan's new housing start numbers have been declining annually from its peak in 1996 with almost 1.6 million housing starts to 1.12 in 2002. However, its total existing housing stock is substantial and, relative to the US, sub-par in quality. Government housing policies have recently been changed to support a nascent repair and remodeling market. CINTRAFOR has begun to document the scope and scale of Japan's repair and remodel market and in addition assess those areas of greatest market potential for US Value-added wood products in Japan's R&R market.
Animal Health Component
100%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Goals / Objectives
To provide both quality applied research and effective communications to potential users, the Center's activities are organized into three areas: Research, Outreach, and Info Services. Current priorities for productive research include: Research Assess the technical, economic, and policy aspects of market shifts for the industry, (such as the impacts of traditional wood substitute products, tariff and non-tariff barriers, changing foreign building standards, and changing environmental policies) Address key, current or future issues arising from or impacting the international trade of forest products (such as the ongoing restructuring resulting from the Asian financial crisis) Provide detailed country-market analysis and competing supplier profiles for those countries involved in forest products trade (such as the opportunity for wood building materials in China Thailand, Philippines, India, and the increasing competition from Latin American countries) Provide research
support for solving problems that impede the development of forest products exports (such as the systems-integration problems of US wood doors and windows in Japanese post and beam construction) Evaluate governmental trade policy decisions and their impact on forest products trade flows (such as protectionist measures by Japan and Mexico to implement Safeguard actions against imports) Maintain a computer-based competitive trade model that supports research on regional developments in global forest products trade, environmental linkages, and the evaluation of policy changes. The CINTRAFOR Global Trade Model is the only such model in the U.S. Accumulate and disseminate globally, information on wood construction, design, and development that provides potential for exports of value-added products (such as changing export trends by product category, and place of origin and destination) Provide new technologies or technology transfer information that can substantially impact productivity,
yield, utilization, and trade opportunities (such as the best integration of US building products into Chinese high-rise or Japanese post and beam construction systems) Evaluate the socioeconomic impact and stability issues related to international trade (such as the impact of changing environmental and housing policies in China on the utilization of wood) Outreach/Public Service Provide and disseminate information from research conducted to regional, national, and international audiences impacted by international trade by means of newsletters, fact sheets on recent research findings and published research reports; both on the web and in hard copy. Maintain a structured program of conferences, workshops, seminars, publications, and consultations in cooperation with others working in support of international trade. Information Services Collect, maintain, and distribute comprehensive data and research related to the international trade of forest products where it is otherwise not
generally available to researchers, industry, and public agency users. Support cooperative efforts in providing information services, avoiding duplication of easily accessed reference materials available from other sources.
Project Methods
The overall process of international trade has been descriptively broken down into five basic elements. Domestic and foreign structural changes have made the interaction of these elements take on a different character in recent years. 1. Demand: The social, cultural, and economic characteristics of consuming countries that govern their application and use of forest products: Supply disruptions have increased the substitution of products and raw material sources to satisfy demand. During the last years the Asian financial crisis has been radically changing the nature of demand in global markets. 2. Supply: The economic, technological, and social characteristics of producing countries that influence the form and costs of their production of forest products: Environmental regulations in the U.S. have greatly constrained some producers and competitiveness has shifted to other regions and products. Expansion in other regions and substitution from non-wood products has
replaced much of the supply reduction in the U.S. 3. Trade Processes and Intermediaries: Economic and/or social institutions and mechanisms that influence international trade: Included are costs and other aspects of transportation and market mechanisms, such as free market profit-seeking and governmental intervention. Supply constraints have shifted profitability from processors to raw-material suppliers and to resource supply-surplus regions, which causes substantial hardships for producers in resource constrained regions. 4. Trade Barriers: Restrictions on the international movement of forest products. These include tariffs and non-tariff barriers, as well as social and cultural factors, which may significantly prejudice against the use of wood and skew the selection of suppliers in the distribution system. The potential to reduce protective barriers in consumer countries has increased as supplies became limited but the recent decline in Japan has initiated new policies to improve
housing quality including a 10 housing warranty requirement and threats to implement WTO Safeguard protective measures. These could become new trade barriers. 5. Environmental Impacts: Regional environmental policies that have both global and regional consequences: Trade negotiations are being required to consider the environmental impacts of trade policies. Environmental policies increasingly affect trade flows. Global efforts to reduce carbon emissions will have a substantial impact on wood flows and wood products competitiveness as will efforts to restore diminished salmon stocks in the Pacific Northwest. Working in concert, these elements determine which countries import, which export, and the prices and volumes traded in world markets.