Progress 10/01/03 to 09/30/08
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Summary Narrative: The goals & objectives of this project were accomplished through a number of sub-projects. In one sub-project, we completed an analysis of the disposition of selected specialty crop trade flows in both volume & value among the US & six regional trading partners (Africa; Asia; Canada & Mexico (CANMEX); Latina America & the Caribbean (LAC); Europe; & the Rest of the World (ROW). The study covered the period 1991-2002 & included three specialty crop groupings. The results have the following implications: (1) preparing for possible onslaught of imports via Regional Free Trade Agreements (RTA) will require continued research efforts towards expansion of specialty crop exports, & (2) priority should be given to policy efforts to revitalize & develop specialty crop exports to potential and growing markets. A sub-project titled, CARICOM's Competitiveness Within the US Imported Market for Specialty Crops: A Shift-Share Analysis, was completed & reported on at the joint Caribbean Food Crops Society/Caribbean Agro-economic Society Meetings, San Juan, Puerto Rico, July 9-15, 2006. The analytical procedure employed the Module to Analyze the Growth of International Commerce (MAGIC) software program, developed by ECLAC. Based on the signs of the Share Effect (SE) & Structural Effect of Demand (SED) estimators, commodity groups were categorized as (1) Rising Star (RS); (2) Declining Star (DS); (3) Missed Opportunity (MO); & (4) Retreat (RT). Star- characteristics (rising or declining) could only be associated with three commodities: peppers, papaya, & unroasted coffee. Furthermore, there were very few CARICOM countries from which the US imported these crops. For the three commodities deemed competitive, analysis revealed that with the exception of papaya, CARICOM had extremely small shares fo the US market, & that the competitiveness status was extremely transient in nature. Another sub-project relating to the objectives of this project was undertaken in collaboration with a Ph.D. student in the Food & Resource Economics Department. This sub-project involved an analysis of CARICOM's agricultural policy formulation & implementation regimes. Additional motivations stemmed from a well-documented need for this type of information within the context of seemingly ad-hoc & contradictory regional trade & development policies & programs relating to CARICOM's current policies & strategies to reposition its economy, including the agricultural sector, within a liberalizing & global economy. The sub-project was undertaken with the support & consultation of the CARICOM Secretariat located in Guyana, South America. Findings from this initiative were presented at a joint meeting of the Caribbean Agricultural Economics Society & the Association of Caribbean & Latin American Agricultural Economics, Belize, Central America, July 23-27, 2007. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.
Impacts
Analyses provided valuable information regarding trade-related issues of Caribbean Countries. They also contributed to clarification of the divergent issues related to the concept of competitiveness, and empirically evaluate the concept as applied to CARICOM countries export of specialty crops to the US market. The information provided is useful for regional trade and development policy formulation. The findings and discussion associated with this project have also become an important component of the CARICOM trade and development debate on two major policy platforms. First, the issues of the non-neutrality of policy assumptions and mechanisms with respect to policy goals are being discussed within CARICOM strategy for repositioning regional agricultural sector, which is known as the Jagdeo Initiative. Second, the discussions and insights emanating from the agricultural sector dialogue have spilled over into analyses and discussions of the policy formulation and implementation of the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME) trade and development platform.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 10/01/06 to 09/30/07
Outputs
OUTPUTS: A sub-project relating to the objectives of this project was undertaken in collaboration with a Ph.D. student in the Food and Resource Economics Department. This sub-project involved a analysis of CARICOM agricultural policy formulation and implementation regimes. This sub-project stemmed from a perceived need to subject the core issues pertaining to regional agricultural sector policy formulation and implementation, to established economic theory and agricultural policy formulation methodologies as an information-driven platform for further analysis of trade and development issues. Additional motivation stemmed from a well documented need for this type of information within the context of seemingly ad hoc and contradictory regional trade and development policies and programs relating to CARICOM's current policies and strategies to reposition its economy, including the agricultural sector, within a liberalizing and global economy. The sub-project was undertaken with the
support and consultation of the CARICOM Secretariat located in Guyana, South America. Findings from this initiative were presented at a joint meeting of the Caribbean Agricultural Economics Society and the Association of Caribbean and Latin American Agricultural Economists, Belize, Central America, July 23-27, 2007. Preliminary findings were presented earlier at the University of the West Indies conference on Rising to the Challenge of Sustainable Development in Small and Island Developing States: Retrospect and Prospect, St. Augustine, Trinidad, October 16-17, 2006.
PARTICIPANTS: Individuals: R.M. Gordon, Ph.D. Student, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL L.M. Walters, Ph.D. Student, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL Partner Organizations: CARICOM Secretariat, Guyana UWI, St. Augustine, Trinidad IICA, Trinidad Office, Trinidad
TARGET AUDIENCES: CARICOM countries agricultural sector policy makers and regional trade and development analysts.
Impacts
The findings and discussions associated with this sub-project have become an important component of the CARICOM trade and development debate on two major policy platforms. First, the issues of the non-neutrality of policy assumptions and mechanisms with respect to policy goals are being discussed within CARICOM strategy for repositioning regional agricultural sector, which is known as the Jagdeo Initiative. Second, the discussions and insights emanating from the agricultural sector dialogue have spilled over into analyses and discussions of the policy formulation and implementation of the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME) trade and development platform.
Publications
- Gordon, R.M., J.J. VanSickle, and Davis, C.G. 2007. Can One Size Fit All?: An Analysis of CARICOM Agricultural Development Policy Formulation. Proceedings of the 27th Caribbean Agro-economic Society Conference, Trinidad, West Indies. (in press)
- Lowe, G.G, Davis, C.G. 2007. CARICOM Competitiveness Within the U.S. Import Market for Specialty Crops: A Shift Share Analysis. Proceedings of the 26th Caribbean Agro-economic Society Conference, Trinidad, West Indies, pages 3-17.
- Momol, T., Xin, J., Klassen, W., Davis, C.G., Brown, W.F. and Roberts, M.R. 2006. Towards a Caribbean Regional Diagnostic Network. Proceedings of the Caribbean Food Crops Society, San Juan, Puerto Rico, pages 70-72.
- Gordon, R.M. 2007. Impact of the CARICOM Economic Integration Arrangements on the Economic Gains of Selected CARICOM Countries. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL.
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Progress 10/01/05 to 09/30/06
Outputs
A sub-project titled, CARICOM's Competitiveness Within the US Imported Market for Specialty Crops: A Shift-Share Analysis, was completed and reported on at the joint Caribbean Food Crops Society/Caribbean Agro-economic Society Meetings, San Juan, Puerto Rico, July 9-15, 2006. The sub-project seeks to contribute to Caribbean Basin regional discussion of the concept of competitiveness, through exploration of the theoretical and empirical dimensions of the issues, within the context of CARICOM's export of specialty crops to the US market. The analytical procedure employed the Module to Analyze the Growth of International Commerce (MAGIC) software program, developed by ECLAC. The software uses a variation of the classical and modified shift-share or constant market share (CMS) empirical estimation procedure. Specialty crop import groupings to the US market were classified as (1) Ornamentals, (2) Vegetables, (3) Fruit and Nuts, and (4) Coffee, Tea, Mate and Spices. Based
on the signs of the Share Effect (SE) and Structural Effect of Demand (SED) estimators, commodity groups were categories as (1) Rising Star (RS), (2) Declining Star (DS), (3) Missed Opportunity (MO), and (4) Retreat (RT). Based on the analytical procedure, it was demonstrated that very few unprocessed specialty crops produced in CARICOM countries displayed increasing competitiveness over the study period (1991 - 2004). -Star- characteristics (rising or declining) could only be associated with three commodities (peppers, papaya, and unroasted coffee). Furthermore, there were very few CARICOM countries (Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica, St. Lucia, Belize, Dominica, Guyana, and Haiti) from which the US imported these crops. For the three commodities deemed competitive, analysis revealed that with the exception of papaya, CARICOM had extremely small shares of the US market, and that the competitiveness status was extremely transient in nature. For pepper, the NAFTA trading group dominated the
market, followed by imports from the Eastern Hemisphere. Also, since 1998 MERCOSUR have made significant inroads into this market. In the case of coffee there is no dominant leader as is the case for pepper and papaya. The top two players are the Central American Common Market (CACM) and the ANDEAN community. A major finding is the apparent relatively small share of the US market accounted for by CARICOM countries, plus the transient nature of commodity competitiveness status. A major challenge for CARICOM is how to effectively move these low market shares to higher levels, within the context of transient competitiveness status and fierce rivalry for the US import market.
Impacts
This analysis contributes towards clarification of the divergent issues related to the concept of competitiveness and empirically evaluate the concept as applied to CARICOM countries export of specialty crops to the US market. The information provided is useful for regional trade and development policy formulation.
Publications
- Lowe, G.G., and Davis, C.G. 2006. CARICOM's Competitiveness Within the U.S. Import Market for Specialty Crops: A Shift Share Analysis. Farm and Business. Forthcoming.
- Klassen, W., and Davis, C.G. 2006. A Proposed Caribbean Invasive Species Surveillance and Information Program. Proceedings of the Caribbean Food Crops Society Meetings. 42(1).
- Davis, C.G., and Klassen, W. 2005. The T-STAR Supported Caribbean Basin-Florida Invasive Species Coordinating and Facilitating Initiative. Proceedings of the Caribbean Food Crops Society Meetings. 41(1): pp 58-63.
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Progress 10/01/04 to 09/30/05
Outputs
Work continued on a sub-project titled, "CARICOM Countries Agricultural Sector Competitiveness Position with Reference to Specialty Crops". The general object of this sub-project is to empirically assess the competitiveness of CARICOM-produced specialty crops imported into the U.S. market, over the 1991-2004 period. Specifically, the U.S. market for imported specialty crops is examined within the context of the FTAA and CAFTA - Dominican Republic Regional Trading Agreements (RTAs). As such, the analysis contextualize the agricultural sector of CARICOM economies within the competitiveness framework of larger economies within Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), which produce similar goods for the same market. Specialty crops are defined in this study to include all cultivated plants, or products thereof, produced in the United States, except for wheat, feed grains, oilseeds, cotton, rice, peanuts, sugar, and tobacco. The ECLAC formulated Module to Analyze Growth of
International Commerce (MAGIC) was used to assess CARICOM competitiveness and market opportunities for selected specialty crops. The data base for the study is the United Nation Harmonized System codes for Commodity Trade (COMTRADE). The MAGIC modeling approach is essentially a modified shift share analytical model. Based on the model, specialty crops were categorized into one of four groups based on a combination of the positive/negative signs of the Structural Effect of the Demand (SED) parameter and the effect of changing Market Share (SE) parameter for commodity/groups over time. Based on this system, commodity competitiveness and market opportunity prospects were categorized as: 1) Rising Star (RS) - positive SE and SED, 2) Fading Star (FS) - positive SE and negative SED, 3) Missed Opportunity (MO) - negative SE and positive SED, and 4) Retreat (RT) - negative SE and SED. Specialty crop groupings following the 2 digit HS code included: 1) Ornamentals, 2) Vegetables, 3) Fruits and
nuts, and 4) Spices. For CARICOM countries, results indicated that there were no Rising or Fading Stars (RS and FS) commodities within the ornamental grouping over the study period. Within the vegetable grouping, peppers could be classified as a Rising Star (RS), and the same was true for papaya within the fruits and nuts grouping. Within the spice grouping, coffee was categorized as a Fading Star (FS). Results also indicate that although peppers, papaya, and coffee were classified as stars (rising or fading), these commodities though deemed competitive over the study period, exhibited dynamic attributes in that they moved in and out of all four classification systems over time.
Impacts
This analysis is providing valuable information regarding trade-related issues of Caribbean Basin Countries.
Publications
- Klassen, W., Davis, C.G., Lauckner, B., Evans, E., Kairo, M., and Adams, H. (Editors). 2005. Facilitating Safer U.S.-Caribbean Trade: Invasive Species Issues Workshop. Florida Agricultural Experiment Station. University of Florida, Gainesville, FL.
- Klassen, W., and Davis, C.G. 2004. Report on Workshop - Facilitating Safer U.S.-Caribbean Trade: Invasive Species Issues. Proceedings of the Caribbean Food Crops Society Meeting, 40(1): pp. 184-197.
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Progress 10/01/03 to 09/30/04
Outputs
In one project, we completed an analysis of the disposition of selected specialty crop trade flows in both volume and value among the US and six regional trading partners (Africa; Asia; Canada and Mexico (CANMEX); Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); Europe; and the Rest of the World (ROW)). The study covered the period 1991-2002 and included the following specialty crop groupings: (1) fresh vegetables and melons (11 crops); (2) fresh fruits (4 crops); and (3) foliage and floriculture (3 crops). Results indicate that the US had a relatively high import level of the selected specialty crops. There was widening trade gaps and declining surpluses experienced by all commodities, with the exception of oranges and strawberries. Canada/Mexico (CANMEX) trading partner group was the dominant supplier of vegetables, and growing imports from this group drives the growing vegetable trade deficit. CANMEX was also a dominant supplier with respect to fruits and this also affected
trade balances. However, many of the declining fruit trade balances were due to declining exports to the Asian and European markets. CANMEX played a major role in the trade of foliage and floriculture; but did not dominate the trade. Among others, the results have the following implications: (1) preparing for possible onslaught of imports via Regional Free Trade Agreements (RTA) will require continued research efforts towards expansion of specialty crop exports, and (2) priority should be given to policy efforts to revitalize and develop specialty drop exports to potential and growing markets. In a second project, we initiated work focusing on a competitiveness analysis of CARICOM countries agricultural sector from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. One of my Ph.D. students visited Trinidad, West Indies in September-October 2004 to work with economists and analysts at the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) subregional office on their Caribbean
Competitiveness Trade Model.
Impacts
Nationally, Florida ranked fourteenth out of all states with respect to agricultural exports with its top exports, fruits and vegetables, falling within the category of specialty crops. With this high national ranking, changes in US trade flows for these crops resulting from free trade agreements, would affect Florida. By monitoring the shifting patterns of specialty crop trade flows with US major trading partners, Florida and other major US specialty crop regions and producers will be better able to develop and implement industry coping strategies.
Publications
- Lowe, G.G., Davis, C.G., and Kilmer, R.L. 2004. United States Trade Flows for Selected Categories of Specialty Crops and the General Policy Implications. IATPC Policy Brief Series No. PBTC04-2. University of Florida, Gainesville, FL.
- Lowe, G.G., Davis, C.G., and Kilmer, R.L. 2004. United States Trade Flows for Selected Categories of Specialty Crops. IATPC Monograph Series No. MGTC04-1. University of Florida, Gainesville, FL.
- Thomas, C.Y., and Davis, C.G. 2004. Global Markets and Rural Poverty: Do the Rural Poor Gain or Lose from Globalization? In: Christy, R.D. (Editor), Achieving Sustainable Communities in a Global Economy, 85-111. River Edge, NJ: World Scientific Publishing Co.
- Walters, L.M., Lowe, G.G., and Davis, C.G. 2003. Economic Asymmetries, Trade Liberalization and Regional Integration: Issues and Policy Implications for CARICOM Countries. Farm and Business 6(1): 73-94.
- Ballayram, and Davis, C.G. 2003. Economic Reform and Agricultural Supply Response in Jamaica. Farm and Business 6(1): 1-20.
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