Progress 10/01/02 to 09/30/07
Outputs
OUTPUTS: I completed the CGE model analyzing the impacts of changes in the sales tax on food impact on Arkansans and the Arkansas economy. The results were presented at a conference held by extension at their office in which state leaders were in attendance. Two state representatives spoke to me afterwards and indicated they were happy with the presentation and looked forward to talking with me as new proposal come forward in upcoming legislative sessions.
PARTICIPANTS: The Policy Issues and Education Center at the Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service state office.
TARGET AUDIENCES: The results were presented at a symposium sponsored by the Arkansas Cooperative Extension Services in which state policy makers and policy organizations were in attendance. Several leaders remarked the results helped them to better understand the impact of the policy change on households and looked forward to further discussion during future policy debates.
Impacts
The analysis indicated the sales tax primarily benefited lower income households with upper income household being made slightly worse off as they tend to spend more of their income on commodities that tended to increase in price.
Publications
- Rainey, Daniel V., and Biswaranjan R. Das. "Measuring the Incidence of the New Food Tax in Arkansas: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach" Final Report to Policy Issues and Education Center. October 2007.
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Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/06
Outputs
Completed a project that examined the Arkansas' changing economic structure and the factors leading the decline in certain areas of the state. The project consisted of a shift-share analysis for each county coupled with changes in human capital levels and tax policy to determine factors that might be impacting the growth or decline of each sector. Another study analyzed how the changes in economic activity impacts population growth and the resulting demand for public services. The study determined that changes in commuting flows account for most of the employment needs in an expanding economy. Another project examined how human capital changes affect the growth potential of local communities.
Impacts
The study examining Arkansas changing economic structure highlights the need to focus more efforts on entrepreneurial activities in rural locations with less direct access to urban markets and infrastructure. The population study indicates that communities with excess capacity regarding public resources may be in a position to offer industrial incentives to attract capital investment with limited impact on their ability to maintain the level of public service provision. Research examining the impact of education, emphasizes the need for continued growth in human capital levels if communities want to experience long term economic growth.
Publications
- Rainey, Daniel V. Olga I. Murova, and Melvin J. Landry Jr. (2006) 'Economic Growth and Local Government Expenditures.' Applied Research in Economic Development. Vol. 3(2): 45-55.
- Das, Biswaranjan, and Daniel V. Rainey. (2006) 'A Report on the Changing Structure of The Arkansas Economy a County-Wise Shift Share Analysis 1980-2000.' Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station. Research Report 980.
- Biswaranjan Das, and Daniel V. Rainey. (2006) 'Analyzing Arkansas' Economic Growth: Need for Effective Rural Development Policies.' Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. Vol. 38(2): 460 (abstract).
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Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/05
Outputs
Current energy supply and demand imbalances threaten the continued economic prosperity of this region and the nation. To assist policy makers to plan and forecast future energy needs and formulate energy management policies for the region, a detailed econometric analysis of energy demand was undertaken by estimating price, income, and substitution elasticities of energy demand at the aggregate as well as at the sectoral level. Results indicate that price and income have a significant impact on the aggregate energy consumption in the 13 Southern states. Relative to the aggregate energy consumed, there is significant variation in responsiveness to price and income changes at the sectoral level. Further, within the manufacturing sector, there exist several possibilities of substitution between the four major forms of energy examined. A shift-share analysis was conducted for the 75 counties of Arkansas to determine the changing structure of the Arkansas economy for the
period 1980-2000. The analysis reveals a lack of overall comparative advantage in the majority of rural counties due to their inability to obtain higher paying jobs in manufacturing and professional sectors. Additionally, efforts continued on improvements and refinements in the Global Marketing Support Services windows-type web tutorial for delivery of export marketing awareness, readiness and technical support for small businesses. Added sections on export marketing resources/assistance via web sources as a complement to information available in the tutorial. Made preliminary efforts to explore use of the GMSS tutorial in developing and implementing marketing programs of the new Arkansas State Department of Agriculture.
Impacts
To better understand the effects of variations in economic growth within the state, a county-wise shift-share analysis was conducted for each of the seventy-five counties. The analysis reveals a lack of overall comparative advantage (CA) in the majority of rural counties. In spite of government programs and policies, majority of the rural counties continue to experience slow economic growth as a result of their disadvantage in obtaining higher paying jobs in manufacturing and professional sectors. The analysis indicates potential areas for for a target development strategy, but additional research will be conducted to provide more specifics on particular sectors and their potential impact on the communities. Analysis of energy demand provides insight into the potential substitution possibilities as a result in changes in energy prices and/or utilization.
Publications
- Das, Biswaranjan, and Daniel V. Rainey. 2006. A Report on the Changing Structure of The Arkansas Economy a County-Wise Shift Share Analysis 1980-2000. Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station Research Report. (Forthcoming).
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Progress 01/01/04 to 12/30/04
Outputs
Completed a project on capital needs for rural economic growth which highlighted the importance of human, social, and public capital improvements for enhanced competitiveness in the global economy. Another study further examined the factors which lead to growth in the level of human capital attainment. I also examined whether efficiencies existed in larger public schools.
Impacts
The research examining the rural global competitiveness provides insight to community and state leaders about the issues they need to address to sustain economic vitality in the coming years. Improvements in human capital and public capital (infrastructure) will be essential for economic growth. In addition, communities must create stronger bonds between businesses, institutions, and residents. State and local governments all over the country are in an intense competition to attract footloose industry. The analysis on transportation infrastructure provides leaders with information on their relative strength in capturing new investment dollars. Many communities are not in a position to recruit significant amounts of capital investment, if any at all. This study examined how various inputs including employment agglomeration in different industries affected economic growth of Arkansas during 1986-1999. Analysis showed locations that are able to successfully substitute
infrastructure, human capital, and amenities for transportation infrastructure are more likely to see increased incomes. The research on education efficiency and achievement levels indicated that consolidation will not likely lead to improvements in educational achievements. Public officials need to focus more resources on improving the early educational skills of poor and minority children. Resources and policy should also focus more energy on students from these families and those with parents with less than a high school diploma. These students have the most difficulty in achieving adequate educational goals.
Publications
- Rainey, Daniel V., Kenneth L. Robinson, Ivye Allen, and Ralph D. Christy. 2004. "Essential Public and Private Capital for Sustainable Community Development". In Achieving Sustainable Communities in a Global Economy. Ralph D. Christy editor. P. 159-178. World Scientific Publishers.
- Rainey, Daniel V., and Olga I. Murova. 2003. "Arkansas Public School Districts Efficiency Estimation: Is Restructuring Necessary", Educational Research and Policy Studies Journal. Vol. 3(4): 1-22.
- Rainey, Daniel V., and Olga I. Murova. 2004. "Factors Influencing Education Achievement". Applied Economics. Vol. 36(21): 2397-2404.
- Rainey, Daniel V., and Olga I. Murova, 2004. "Data Envelopment Analysis of Efficiency Estimation in Public Schools", Empirical Economic Letters. Vol. 3(4):.
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Progress 01/01/03 to 12/31/03
Outputs
I identified factors that will enhance rural communities ability to compete in the global economic environment. Presented and invited paper at the Allied Social Sciences Meeting in Washington, DC. Results from this research have been published in American Journal of Agricultural Economics and I have a forthcoming publication in Achieving Sustainable Communities in a Global Economy Proceedings published by the Cornell International Institute for Food, Agriculture, and Development. I revised analysis of transportation infrastructures influence in connecting rural communities to larger urban markets. Manuscript for this research is in its second review at the journal Economic Development Quarterly for publication. I investigated the efficiency of public schools in Arkansas. This information provided insight into whether the state should consolidate small schools in the state. Also, analyzed the determinates of education achievement. This study has policy implications for
the state and regional leaders and educational administrators as resources are allocated to improve the level of human capital.
Impacts
The research examining the rural global competitiveness provides insight to community and state leaders about the issues they need to address to sustain economic vitality in the coming years. Improvements in human capital and public capital (infrastructure) will be essential for economic growth. In addition, communities must create stronger bonds between businesses, institutions, and residents. State and local governments all over the country are in an intense competition to attract footloose industry. The analysis on transportation infrastructure provides leaders with information on their relative strength in capturing new investment dollars. Many communities are not in a position to recruit significant amounts of capital investment, if any at all. This study examined how various inputs including employment agglomeration in different industries affected economic growth of Arkansas during 1986-1999. Analysis showed locations that are able to successfully substitute
infrastructure, human capital, and amenities, for transportation infrastructure are more likely to see increased incomes. The research on education efficiency and achievement levels indicated that consolidation will not likely lead to improvements in educational achievements. Public officials need to focus more resources on improving the early educational skills of poor and minority children. Resources / policy should also focus more energy on students from these families and those with parents with less than a high school diploma. These students have the most difficulty in achieving adequate educational goals.
Publications
- Rainey, Daniel V., Kenneth L. Robinson, and Ivye Allen. 2003. Three Forms of Capital for Achieving Sustainable Community Development. in Achieving Sustainable Communities in a Global Economy Proceedings. Cornell International Institute for Food, Agriculture, and Development. Forthcoming.
- Rainey, Daniel V., and Olga Murova. 2003. Factors Influencing Education Performance. University of Arkansas, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Staff Paper SP 04 2003. December 2003.
- Rainey, Daniel V., and Olga Murova. 2003. Arkansas Public School Districts Efficiency Estimation: Is Restructuring Necessary. University of Arkansas, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Staff Paper SP 05 2003. December 2003.
- Rainey, Daniel V., Kenneth L. Robinson, Ivye Allen, and Ralph D. Christy. 2003. Essential Forms of Capital for Sustainable Community Development. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 85(3): 708-715.
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