Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT
(N/A)
BURLINGTON,VT 05405
Performing Department
SCHOOL OF NATURAL RESOURCES
Non Technical Summary
Urban sprawl contributes to the fragmentation of forest habitat and to the reduction in ecosystem function. This project models the impacts of predicted future urban growth on forest fragmentation levels in Northwestern Vermont and simulates how these outcomes change under alternative policy scenarios.
Animal Health Component
35%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
15%
Applied
35%
Developmental
50%
Goals / Objectives
This project proposes implementation of a predictive land use/land cover change model for two counties in Vermont's Champlain Basin, integrated with tools for forest fragmentation analysis. The objectives of the project are to: 1) spatially quantify loss of forest habitat to urban growth in Chittenden and Addison Counties over the last ten years, 2) predict patterns of residential development under current policies, based on historical trends and models of economic behavior, 3) describe the relationship between development patterns and metrics of forest fragmentation and model future forest fragmentation based on predicted development patterns, and 4) simulate how policy alternatives would likely affect future levels of forest fragmentation. The policy alternatives modeled in this project will concentrate on hypothetical changes to Vermont's Land Use Law (Act 250) as well as changes to local zoning ordinances and development impact fees.
Project Methods
This project will analyze recent changes in land use/land cover using remotely sensed imagery. Changes will be modeled statistically as a function of economic, locational, environmental and demographic characteristics. Urban growth will then be simulated dynamically by entering these parameter estimates into the UrbanSim model (Noth et al. 2000, Waddell forthcoming) . UrbanSim is an agent-based behavioral simulation model that operates under dynamic disequilibrium and integrates an economic framework. Outcomes under alternative policy scenarios will be modeled by altering model inputs and seeing how these affect predicted development patterns. To run the model, various spatial and non-spatial data inputs are needed. These include land use in the base year, population and employment figures and forecasts, current and planned transportation networks, physical constraints to development (e.g. wetlands, floodplains, steep slopes), and current policy constraints, including
land use plans, zoning/density maps, protected/conserved land maps, locations requiring development impact fees, or any other user-specified constraint. Most of these layers are currently available in some form for the study area. The second component of this project involves assessing changes in forest cover and fragmentation. Digital imagery from the two different time periods used for the historical land use change analysis will be analyzed so that a baseline level of forest fragmentation can be obtained and a relationship between certain types of development and forest fragmentation metrics can be derived. This will allow for prediction of how future development will affect those forest conditions. Towards this end, the project will use remotely sensed imagery to derive numerous metrics of forest fragmentation at a variety of scales. To quantify metrics of forest fragmentation, the Patch Analyst Extension for Arc View will be used. References: Noth, M., A. Borning, and P. Waddell.
2000. An Extensible, Modular Architecture for Simulating Urban Development, Transportation, and Environmental Impacts. UW CSE Technical Report 2000-12-01. Waddell, P. Forthcoming. UrbanSim: Modeling Urban Development for Land Use, Transportation and Environmental Planning, Journal of the American Planning Association.