Progress 06/01/02 to 09/30/08
Outputs
OUTPUTS: I have worked extensively on the application of life history theory to assessment and management of two groups of endangered species: sea turtles and freshwater sucker fish. Activities: analysis of "reproductive value" as a scaling method for evaluation of fishery bycatch impacts on populations of sea turtles; assessment of the impact of fish kills on extinction risk of Lost River and Shortnose suckers; guest lectures and seminars on application of quantitative methods in endangered species recovery planning. Events: keynote lecture, Mediterranean Sea Turtle Symposium; public lecture and outreach at "Sea Turtle Day" at the Hatfield Marine Science Center; public outreach forums on the "Science of Marine Reserves" on the Oregon coast. Services: graduate and undergraduate student mentoring Products: Sucker Population Viability Analysis model (Excel spreadsheet) Dissemination: peer-reviewed publication; public lectures; sucker model demonstration to Recovery Team; sucker model report to Bureau of Reclamation PARTICIPANTS: Graduate student: Jason Vaughan, MSc Collaborators: Melissa Snover, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center Bryan Wallace, Post-doctoral researcher, Duke University TARGET AUDIENCES: Agencies: National Marine Fisheries Service, Bureau of Reclamation General Public: public outreach meetings on sea turtles and how we use mathematical models to determine the best recovery plans; outreach meetings on the scientific information and analyses available to evaluate the benefits of marine reserves PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
Loggerhead sea turtles are currently petitioned for "uplisting" to endangered status in the U.S., due to a 50% decline in nesting activity in Florida. I have been working on methods to determine if fishery bycatch of the turtles is contributing to this decline, and models to set a maximum number of mortalities to assure population recovery (Wallace et al. 2008). Loggerhead turtles also occur in the Mediterranean. While attending the Mediterranean Sea Turtle Symposium as the keynote invited speaker, I presented a new model to determine an appropriate IUCN status listing for Mediterranean loggerheads. The method and result (recommended listing level is "endangered") were adopted by the IUCN Specialist Group, and will be submitted to IUCN in January 2009. Lost River and Shortnose suckers are federally listed fish species that occur in the Klamath Lake and River Basin. Working with federal and state agency personnel, I have developed a user-friendly population viability analysis that generates plots of extinction risk and population sensitivity based on the frequency of "fish kills" - years of low adult fish survival due to poor water conditions. This model will be used by the Recovery Team to explore the potential impacts of management activities and how those efforts could be undermined by an increase in fish kill frequency.
Publications
- Wallace, B. P., S. S. Heppell, R. L. Lewison, S. Kelez, and L. B. Crowder. 2008. Reproductive values of loggerhead turtles in fisheries bycatch worldwide. Journal of Applied Ecology 45:1076-1085.
- Snover, M.L. and S.S. Heppell. 2009. Application of diffusion approximation for risk assessments of marine turtle populations. Ecological Applications (in press).
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Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07
Outputs
OUTPUTS: In 2007, my work on this project focused on an analysis of the life histories of deep sea fishes and their vulnerability to overexploitation. Activities: literature review of deep sea fish life history attributes, including age at maturity, growth rates, maximum life span, and fecundity; development of a simple life cycle model to compare deep sea fishes to more shallow water species in the same families Events: symposium talk at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in San Francisco, with extensive media coverage; public lecture and classroom lectures on deep sea fish population dynamics at Duke University; talk at the Mote Marine Lab Fisheries Ecology Symposium Products: report to Marine Conservation Biology Institute; OSU press release PARTICIPANTS: Primary collaborators on life history study: Richard Haedrich and Krista Baker, Memorial University, Newfoundland Symposium organizer: Lance Morgan, Marine Conservation Biology Institute TARGET AUDIENCES: general public and media; international conservation groups PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
Media coverage of the symposium at the AAAS meeting was extensive; in addition to public awareness of the vulnerability of deep sea fishes and habitats, the symposium and a scientist consensus report contributed to debates on deep sea trawling held at the UN.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/06
Outputs
My research and outreach activities continue under the original title and overview of this project, "APPLICATION OF THEORETICAL ECOLOGY AND LIFE HISTORY ANALYSIS TO AQUATIC WILDLIFE AND FISHERIES MANAGEMENT". In 2006, my research has focused on population dynamics of long-lived species in marine and freshwater environments. I have submitted technical information to the National Marine Fisheries Service for development of maximum allowable take rules for sea turtles and for incorporating uncertainty into estimates of population size for sea turtles. I also hosted a second meeting to compare potential causes of population decline in Pacific and Atlantic sea turtle populations and am currently completing that research. For long-lived fish management, I developed a sensitivity analysis for evaluation of slot limits (maximum and minimum size regulations) for green sturgeon which was published in a peer-reviewed journal. I participated in a workshop on evaluation of
sustainability of deepsea fisheries, and reviewed stock assessments for the Pacific Fishery Management Council. Another research project underway is evaluation of the role of age-structure and maternal effects on population dynamics of rockfish, specifically Pacific Ocean perch in Alaska. In freshwater systems, I published a paper with a student on survival and emigration rates of red-legged frogs, a species that is negatively affected by exotic bullfrogs. I also worked extensively with management agency scientists on a population model and evaluation for endangered suckers in the Klamath Basin.
Impacts
My 2006 work on maximum allowable take limits for sea turtles is under evaluation by the Office of Protected Resources and will contribute to policies applied to Endangered Species consultations. The population model developed for suckers in the Klamath Basin will serve as a tool for management plan evaluation by the Recovery Teams that will be updating the Lost River Sucker and Shortnose Sucker Recovery Plans in summer 2008.
Publications
- Heppell, S.S. 2006. Life history analysis of green sturgeon, Acipenser medirostris. Environmental Biology of Fishes. Available on-line.
- Two book chapters. 2007. in: P. Plotkin, ed. Synopsis of the Biology and Conservation of the Ridley Sea Turtle. Smithsonian Institution Press.
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Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/05
Outputs
This year, my work has focused on marine fisheries and endangered species recovery planning. A number of projects have been completed that have resulted in publications, including a collaborative modelling project to examine the importance of dispersal in marine reserve design, an overview of the Pew and US Commission reports on ocean policy, and a comparative assessment of management options for grouper in the Gulf of Mexico. New projects include development of management models to set bycatch limits for sea turtles, analysis of the population-level impacts of maternal effects on offspring quality in marine fishes, and development of viability models for endangered sucker populations in the Klamath River Basin. My network of regional and international collaborators has grown considerably, thereby increasing opportunities for grant proposals.
Impacts
My research has led to recommendations for development of quantitative assessment tools for endangered species biological opinions. My analyses have enabled resource managers to qualitatively compare the effects of protected areas, harvest quotas, and habitat enhancement on species with different life histories. This will add scientific rigor to the choice of management options, improving the likelihood of successful species recovery.
Publications
- Heppell, S. S., D. Crouse, L. Crowder, S. Epperly, W. Gabriel, T. Henwood and R. Marquez. 2005. A population model to estimate recovery time, population size and management impacts on Kemps ridley sea turtles. Chelonian Conservation and Biology 4:761-766.
- Gerber, L.R., S.S. Heppell, F. Ballantyne, and E. Sala. 2005. The role of dispersal and demography in determining the efficacy of marine reserves. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 62:863-871.
- Granek, E. F., D. R. Brumbaugh, S. A. Heppell, S. S. Heppell, and D. Secord. 2005. A blueprint for the oceans: implications of two national commission reports for conservation practitioners. Conservation Biology 19:1008-1018.
- Heppell, S. S., S. A. Heppell, A. Read, and L. B. Crowder. 2005. Effects of fishing on long-lived marine organisms. Pp. 211-231in E.A. Norse and L.B. Crowder, eds. Marine Conservation Biology. Island Press, Washington, DC.
- Heppell, S. S., S. A. Heppell, F. Coleman and C. Koenig. 2005. A model to assess conservation strategies for a protogynous fish. Ecological Applications in press.
- Chelgren, N., Rosenberg, D.K, Heppell, S.S., and Gitelman, A. 2006. Carry-over aquatic effects on survival of metamorphic frogs during pond emigration. Ecological Applications in press.
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Progress 01/01/04 to 12/31/04
Outputs
Abstracts presented: International Symposium on Sea Turtle Conservation and Biology Annual Meeting, San Jose, Costa Rica. Comparing mortality risks with adult equivalents based on reproductive value. co-authored with L. Crowder and M. Snover. A bright future for modeling and management planning. co-authored with M. Chaloupka. Society for Conservation Biology Annual Meeting, New York, NY. Ontogenetic shifts and marine reserve planning: life history matters! co-authored with L. Gerber. Biology Seminar, Washington State University (Vancouver, WA). Life history analysis and conservation planning Ecological Society of America Annual meeting, Portland, OR. Comparing the costs and benefits of rockfish enhancement and marine reserves. co-authored with Scott Heppell and Mark Hixon. American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists Annual Meeting, Norman, OK. A model to assess management strategies for hermaphroditic grouper. Ran a workshop on sturgeon population modeling
presented to Biological Recovery Assessment Team, Snake River Sturgeon Project.
Impacts
There is a need for simple, generalized models to assess the relative benefits of management options for recovery of endangered or overfished species. My models and assessment tools allow resource managers to qualitatively compare the effects of protected areas, harvest quotas, and habitat enhancement on species with different life histories. This will add scientific rigor to the choice of management options, improving the likelihood of successful species recovery.
Publications
- Gerber, L. and S. S. Heppell. 2004. The use of demographic sensitivity analysis in marine species conservation planning. Biological Conservation 120:121-128.
- Ruckelshaus, M., P. McElhany, M. McClure and S. Heppell. 2004. Chinook salmon in Puget Sound: Effects of spatially correlated catastrophes on persistence. Pp. 208-218, In R. Ackakaya, M. Burgman, O. Kindvall, C.C. Wood, P. Sjogren-Gulve, J. S. Hatfield and M. A. McCarthy (eds.) Species Conservation and Management: Case Studies. Oxford Univ. Press.
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Progress 01/01/03 to 12/31/03
Outputs
Summary: My research associated with AES for 2003 consisted primarily of model development projects to assess the relative efficacy of marine protected areas and other management options for species with different life histories. I presented my results at several regional and national meetings and submitted draft manuscripts for 3 projects. One book chapter, on sea turtles, was published in 2003, and 3 others have been accepted for publication in 2004. I co-authored a manuscript on marine reserve design which will also be in print in 2004. I also gave a plenary lecture at the Croatian Biological Congress in Zagreb, Croatia, and began planning an exchange program with the University of Zagreb. Two students who have received support through my AES project completed their Masters degrees in 2003: Nate Chelgren, who studied red-legged frog dispersal, and Armando Ubeda, who modeled the effects of size-selective harvest on red sea urchins. Ongoing projects include
development of risk evaluation metric for endangered species recovery plans, species life history analysis for marine reserve design and the incorporation of economic factors into models for ranking management plans. Significant Findings: Life histories and Marine Protected Area design. With colleague Leah Gerber of Arizona State University, I developed a series of models and analyses to assess how marine protected areas will benefit different species. We modeled 15 different species, from snails to fish to whales, an examined how proportional reductions in adult mortality will affect population growth rates. Contrary to some previously published conclusions, we found that long-lived marine birds and mammals may benefit less from MPAs than shorter-lived species, primarily because natural mortality rates for these species are already low. Our paper is now in press at Biological Conservation. In a more complex analysis, conducted with researchers from Florida State University, I found
that protected areas have comparable benefits to a 50% reduction in fishing pressure for the gag grouper, a species in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic. This paper will be submitted in early 2004. The models will be adapted for Oregon groundfish species, including rockfish, dogfish, and lingcod. Invited Presentations: Ocean Salmon Meeting, Newport, OR. American Fisheries Society, Oregon Chapter Meeting, Eugene, OR. Society for Conservation Biology Annual Meeting, Duluth, MN. EPA, Western Ecology Division. Corvallis, OR. Early Life History Section of the American Fisheries Society Annual Meeting, Santa Cruz, CA. Plenary Lecture, Croatian Congress of Biology, Zagreb, Croatia. Population Modeling Workshop, Research Advances in Fish and Wildlife Ecology, Oregon State University. Seminar, Department of Biology, Florida Atlantic University.
Impacts
There is a need for simple, generalized models to assess the relative benefits of management options for recovery of endangered or overfished species. My models and assessment tools allow resource managers to qualitatively compare the effects of protected areas, harvest quotas, and habitat enhancement on species with different life histories. This will add scientific rigor to the choice of management options, improving the likelihood of successful species recovery.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/02 to 12/31/02
Outputs
My research associated with AES for 2002 covered a wide range of projects: amphibian monitoring and response to exotic fishes and bullfrogs, life history analysis of amphibians and groundfish, and population model development for marine fishes. Most of this is work in progress; nevertheless, I presented model results at several regional and national meetings and submitted draft manuscripts for two projects. I have received important feedback from resource managers and offers of collaboration with Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Pacific Marine Conservation Council, and NOAA Fisheries. Current projects include species life history analysis for marine reserve design and the importance of bycatch reduction for groundfish recovery. Grants Amphibian Monitoring Research Initiative, Biological Resources Division, U.S.G.S.: "Qualitative Models to Predict the Impacts of Exotic Species on Native Anurans". Heppell and Li. $43,000 North Pacific Universities Marine
Mammal Research Consortium:" Steller sea lions, fisheries and food webs: A sensitivity analysis of alternative community interaction models". Heppell. $50,000 Cooperative Institute for Marine Resource Studies, National Marine Fisheries Service. "Marine Team: Student led investigations in marine fisheries". Heppell and Heppell. $11,400 Professional Presentations Feb 2002 INVITED PAPER. Heppell SS. Assessing the efficacy of bycatch reduction through life history analysis. Western Groundfish Conference, Ocean Shores, WA Mar 2002 INVITED SEMINAR. Heppell SS. Life history analysis for conservation and recovery planning: Lessons from the sea turtle "success" story. Northwest Fisheries Science Center seminar series, Seattle, WA Mar 2002 INVITED PAPER. Heppell SS Avoiding counter-productive "model wars": why model interpretation should be qualitative. Oregon Chapter of the American Fisheries Society Annual Meeting, Sunriver, OR Jul 2002 INVITED PAPER. Heppell SS. Examination of habitat use
and dispersal of exotic bullfrogs and their potential impact on native amphibian communities in the Willamette Valley, Oregon. Annual Meeting of the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, Kansas City, Missouri, USA. Aug 2002 CONTRIBUTED PAPER. Heppell SS. Amphibian elasticity analysis. Annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Tuscon, Arizona. Sep 2002 INVITED SEMINAR. Heppell SS. No data? No problem: Life history analysis for fisheries management. Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, Moss Landing, CA Nov 2002 CONTRIBUTED POSTER. Loop Analysis Group. Trade-offs in food web modeling: loop analysis and EcoSim. Mote Marine Lab Symposium: Trade-offs in Ecosystems Modeling. Sarasota, FL Nov 2002. INVITED SEMINAR. Heppell SS. Landscape, habitat and exotics: models for management of PNW amphibians. EPA Region 10 Special Seminar, Seattle, WA Nov 2002 CONTRIBUTED POSTER. COLEMAN, F. C., C. C. KOENIG, M. W. MILLER, S.A. HEPPELL, S. S. HEPPELL, and K. SCANLON Fishing
effects on habitat: the potential consequences of removing such habitat engineers as red grouper (Epinephelus morio). Symposium on Effects of Fishing Activities on Benthic Habitats. Tampa, FL
Impacts
My impact for 2002 comes from my extensive efforts to reach out to the scientific community through research presentations. I have generated substantial interest from fellow scientists and management agencies in the use of simple, qualitative analyses to make general predictions about how fish and amphibian populations respond to negative impacts (fishing, exotic species introductions, contaminants) and positive impacts (exotic species control, enhancement, and protected area management).
Publications
- Heppell, S.S., Crouse, D., Crowder, L., Epperly, S. and Frazer, N. 2002. Population models for Atlantic loggerheads: past, present and future. In A. Bolton and B. Witherington, eds. Synopsis of the Biology and Conservation of the Loggerhead Sea Turtle. Smithsonian Institution Press, Washington, D.C.
- Heppell, S.S., Snover, M. and Crowder, L. 2002. Population Dynamics. In P. Lutz, J. Wyneken and J. Musick, editors. Biology of Sea Turtles, Vol. 2. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.
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