Source: UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS submitted to NRP
METHODS FOR REGIONALIZAITON AND RISK MAPPING: ORBIVIRUS EPIDEMIOLOGY AS A MODEL
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0187163
Grant No.
2001-35204-10153
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
2000-02083
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Dec 15, 2000
Project End Date
Dec 31, 2003
Grant Year
2001
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
2001 S. Lincoln Ave.
URBANA,IL 61801
Performing Department
VETERINARY PATHOBIOLOGY
Non Technical Summary
Regionalization is an attempt to partition the risk of infection over spatial & temporal scales, minimizing the risk of spreading infectious agents when animals and animal products are moved. Both Bluetongue virus (BTV) & epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV)are transmitted by biting midges in the genus Culicoides, are ideally suited to this process of regionalization & risk map development: their distributions are highly heterogeneous geographically & temporally & their presence can impose trade restrictions. Therefore, the specific objectives of this project are to: 1) describe the epidemiology of BTV & EHDV within cattle herds, 2) determine the distribution & abundance of Culicoides spp., and 3) use BTV, EHDV, environmental & insect data to develop a dynamic risk map that can be used for regionalization of BTV & EHDV in the U.S. We will perform a longitudinal 3-year study on approximately 60 dairy operations in Illinois. Animals on each farm will be sampled once per year in order to calculate the incidence of BTV and EHDV exposure. Using meteorological, environmental, and entomological data, predictive models will be generated for Culicoides distribution. These models will be used to map the predicted distribution of vectors, and, along with seroconversion data, will be used to generate BTV and EHDV risk maps that will form the basis of regionalization. This approach will aid the future sustainability of agriculture and animal industries within the United States by providing a more rational approach to policies related to the movement of animals and animal products.
Animal Health Component
100%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
31134101170100%
Knowledge Area
311 - Animal Diseases;

Subject Of Investigation
3410 - Dairy cattle, live animal;

Field Of Science
1170 - Epidemiology;
Goals / Objectives
Bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) are related Orbiviruses vectored by biting midges in the genus Culicoides. Bluetongue disease (BT), the clinical manifestation of infection with BTV, is the only Organization International des Epizooties (OIE) Schedule A disease that is endemic in a significant portion of the U.S. Not only is BT a threat to the health of domestic and wild ruminants throughout much of the country, but its classification in Schedule A poses a costly impediment to U.S. agricultural trade (particularly of cattle and germplasm). Illinois represents one of the toughest areas of the country in which to assess trade policies and sampling strategies relative to BTV because the prevalence is extremely low (but not zero), both BTV and EHDV are present within the state, both of the potential vectors, C. variipennis sonorensis and C. v. variipennis s. s., are present within the state, and the annual incidence rates of BTV and EHDV are unknown. A study that assesses the incidence and distribution of BTV, EHDV, their Culicoides vectors, as well as the risk factors for exposure to these viruses would be invaluable for regionalization efforts. Therefore, the specific objectives of this 3-year project are to: 1) Describe the epidemiology of BTV and EHDV within cattle herds in a transitional region of the U.S., 2) Determine the distribution of Culicoides spp. in a transitional region of the U.S. and assess the factors that influence this distribution, and 3) Develop dynamic risk maps that can be used for regionalization of BTV and EHDV in the U.S.
Project Methods
Approximately 60 dairy cattle herds within Illinois will be enrolled. Herds will be selected proportional to herd density and expected incidence of BTV and EHDV seroconversion, using 12 sampling zones within the state. A minimum of 4 herds will be selected per zone, with more herds added in the zones with higher herd density and with a lower expected incidence of BTV and EHDV exposure. The sampling design will enable more precise estimates of incidence in low infection zones. Within selected herds, all animals at least 1 year of age will be blood sampled if herd size is <60. If a herd has >60 animals, then 60 randomly selected individuals over 1 year of age will be blood sampled. All animals enrolled in the study will be blood sampled between March and June of each year of the study. For each animal, origin, date of arrival on the premises (if applicable) and age will be recorded. Herd-level information will be collected, including herd size, stocking rate, geographic location, proximity to other herds, and proximity to deer herds. The precise geographic location of each herd will be determined. In the Fall of each year, Culicoides spp. larvae will be collected from several sites at each dairy and reared for to adult for identification. Serum will be tested for antibodies to BTV and EHDV. Incidence rates of exposure will be calculated. Logistic regression models will be developed to determine risk factors for exposure to BTV and/or EHDV. For the insect data, we will describe in detail the different species of Culicoides that are associated with livestock within Illinois. We will begin to assess the factors that influence the distribution of C. v. sonorensis and the potential for BTV transmission throughout the state. Finally, we will use a geographic information system, remotely sensed data, the risk factor models and the Culicoides spp. distribution data to develop maps that predict the risk of BTV and EHDV transmission over spatial and temporal scales. These maps will form the basis for regionalization efforts. This study will greatly increase our basic knowledge of BTV and EHDV epidemiology and Culicoides spp. ecology in a region of the U.S. that has not been intensively studied. In addition, we will apply methodology that will ultimately be useful for creating scientifically valid trade policy.

Progress 12/15/00 to 12/31/03

Outputs
Seventy dairy and beef cattle herds within Illinois and western Indiana were enrolled to closely matching the underlying distribution of herds around the states. We designed a geographic information system (GIS) to display the location of the herds along with climatic information and land use characteristics. This type of map will be useful for any evaluation of the spatial distribution of specific diseases and make predictions about how diseases are moving. We collected over 13,000 blood samples and have been tested for antibodies to BTV and / or EHDV to estimate prevalences and annual incidences. Overall, the prevalence of BTV in the state was low during the study, with herd prevalence estimates ranging from 0% to 10%. These estimates have not been age-adjusted. EHDV prevalence was much higher, with unadjusted estimates ranging from 0% to over 50%. These data have been placed on the GIS maps and have enabled us to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of exposure to these viruses. There was clear geographic distribution to the seroprevalence data. The prevalence of antibodies in our cattle samples ranged from 10% in the southern portion of the state and 0 to 2% in the north. This decreasing prevalence from south to north is predicted based on climate data and the distribution of the Culicoides insects. Analyses are continuing into the risk factors for these exposure patterns, with incidence and prevalence estimates standardized. We found it critical in this study to compare the performance of the ELISA for EHDV and the ELISA for BTV. We have thus tested many samples by Serum Neutralization as well. We are currently completing our evaluation of the performance of these assays and the degree to which the error rates of these tests are dependent on cross reactivity with related viruses. These data are also being incorporated into the computer simulation model that will assess the impact of varying sampling strategies on the apparent prevalence of BTV and EHDV and determine the risk of moving infected cattle. We have developed an initial set of risk maps for BTV and EHDV distributions. The maps were constructed using the GIS and smoothing techniques known as kriging. There are some similarities between the BTV and EHDV maps, with both maps showing the highest risks in the southern portion of the states. However, EHDV out not BTV shows high risks extending northward along the rivers in Illinois. We will continue to refine these maps using statistical inputs to generate the final simulation models of disease transmission.

Impacts
This study will determine the factors that influence the distribution of bluetongue virus and EHD virus in Illinois cattle. The predictive model that we create will enable more rational decisions to be made regarding the import and export of cattle relative to these viruses. In addition, this type of model will have broad applications to other diseases that exhibit a spatial distribution.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 10/01/01 to 09/30/02

Outputs
During the first two years of this project, we enrolled 70 dairy and beef cattle herds within Illinois and western Indiana. These herds were distributed around the states, closely matching the underlying distribution of cattle herds around the state. We have designed a geographic information system (GIS) to display the location of the herds in our study along with climatic information and other land use characteristics. This type of map will be useful for any evaluation of the spatial distribution of disease as we will be able to determine how specific diseases are distributed and therefore make predictions about how diseases are moving between cattle herds.We have now collected over 9000 blood samples from cattle during the two years. Most samples have been tested for antibodies to BTV and or EHDV in order to estimate prevalences and annual incidences. These data will be placed on the GIS maps and will enable us to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of exposure to these viruses. To date, the prevalence of antibodies in our cattle samples ranges from 10% in the herds in the southern portion of the state to 0 - 2% in the northern portion of the state. This decreasing prevalence from south to north is predicted based on climate data and the distribution of the Culicoides insects. If these results are similar over the next years of our sampling, we will be able to recommend different trade policies with respect to the northern portions of the state (and other areas of the country with similar climate and insect distribution).We found it critical in this study to compare the performance of the ELISA for EHDV and the ELISA for BTV. We have thus tested many samples by Serum Neutralization as well. We are currently completing our evaluation of the performance of these assays and the degree to which the error rates of these tests are dependent on infection with one of the related viruses. These data are also being incorporated into the computer simulation model that will assess the impact of varying sampling strategies on the apparent prevalence of BTV and EHDV. This model will be designed in such a way that it can be used to determine the risk of moving infected cattle.In the upcoming year, we will perform our third year of sampling and will sample for Culicoides around the state. The GIS will be used for predictive modeling and regional risk assessment. This work has already begun, and two manuscripts are currently in review related to this topic.

Impacts
This study will determine the factors that influence the distribution of bluetongue virus and EHD virus in Illinois cattle. The predictive model that we create will enable more rational decisions to be made regarding the import and export of cattle relative to these viruses. In addition, this type of model will have broad applications to other diseases that exhibit a spatial distribution.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 10/01/00 to 09/30/01

Outputs
In the first year of this project, we enrolled 65 dairy and beef cattle herds within Illinois. These herds were distributed around the state, closely matching the underlying distribution of cattle herds around the state. We are currently designing a geographic information system (GIS) which will display the location of the herds in our study along with climatic information and other land use characteristics. This type of map will be useful for any evaluation of the spatial distribution of disease as we will be able to determine how specific diseases are distributed and therefore make predictions about how diseases are moving between cattle herds. In total, we obtained blood samples from 4156 cattle during the year. We are currently determining the proportion of the samples that have antibodies to BTV and / or EHDV. These data will be placed on the GIS maps and will enable us to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of these viruses. To date, the prevalence of antibodies in our cattle samples ranges from 20% in the herds in the southern portion of the state to 0 - 2% in the northern portion of the state. This decreasing prevalence from south to north is predicted based on climate data and the distribution of the Culicoides insects. If these results are similar over the next years of our sampling, we will be able to recommend different trade policies with respect to the northern portions of the state (and other areas of the country with similar climate and insect distribution). Finally, we have begun the development of a computer model that will assess the impact of varying sampling strategies on the apparent prevalence of BTV and EHDV. This model will be designed in such a way that it can be used to determine the risk of moving infected cattle.

Impacts
This study aims to determine the factors that influence the distribution of bluetongue virus and EHD virus in Illinois cattle. The predictive model that we create will enable more rational decisions to be made regarding the import and export of cattle relative to these viruses. In addition, this type of model will have broad applications to other diseases that exhibit a variable spatial distribution.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period