Progress 10/01/08 to 09/30/13
Outputs
Target Audience: The targeted audiences reached by my efforts includes: Administrators with theU.S. Department of Agriculture, Administrators with theU.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Minnesota Department of Agriculture, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Other policy makers in the U.S. and abroad, United Soybean Board, American Seed Trade Association, National Corn Growers Association, Other commodity organization, Non-governmental funding organizations like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Contributors to the Soybean Rust impPIPE (see www.ipmpipe.org/partners.cfm), U.S. corn, cotton, and soybean producers, Producers and employees in the U.S. pork industry, Decision makers and research scientist in the seed and herbicide industry, and Academic researchers working on emerging agricultural technologies and policies related to these technologies. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Models developed under this project for assessing the efficacy of the EPA’s IRM requirements for Bt corn were incorporated into ISG 5020: Risk Analysis Modeling for Introduced Species and Genotypes from 2008-12 to help train students on developing bioeconomic models for risk analysis. ISG 5020 served as a core course in the NSF funded Graduate Training Grant for Risk Analysis of Introduced Species and Genotypes. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Results of the project have been disseminated through: peer-reviewed publications, professional conference papers and presentations, USDA and EPA sponsored workshops, National Academy of Science National Research Council sponsored summit, meetings with commodity association leaders, annual meeting of NC-205 (regional research committee on the Ecology and Management of European Corn Borer and Other Lepidopteran Pests of Corn) and NCCC-46 (regional research committee on the Development, Optimization, and Delivery of Management Strategies for Corn Rootworms and Other Below-ground Insect Pests of Maize), meetings with seed and chemical industry scientists and leaders, trade and popular press articles, media interviews, and producers meetings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Research initiatives under this project contributed to enhancing farm profitability, rural economies, abundance of food and fiber, and environmental quality by helping to identify profitable applications of emerging agricultural technologies and regulatory policies that promote sustainable adoption. Technological innovation over the last century is responsible for a rapid increase in agricultural productivity and has resulted in abundant and affordable food and fiber. However, this innovation is partially responsible for environmental degradation due to increased farming intensity. New technologies promise to reduce the impact of production agriculture on the environment, while continuing to promote gains in agricultural productivity, but challenges threaten this promise. For example, genetically engineered (GE) crops have been widely adopted and resulted in significant benefits to farmers and the environment. However, insect and weed resistance threaten to erode these benefits. To ensure that these technical advances fulfill their promise, research was conducted to help identify sustainable as well as profitable applications. Research was also conducted to better understand when government action is necessary to ensure sustainability. The overall objectives of this project are to (i) assess the profitability and risk of emerging agricultural innovations to farmers and (ii) evaluate the benefits and costs of current policies or programs designed to promote the sustainable use these innovations. Accomplishments relate specifically to herbicide tolerant (HT) crops; insect resistant Bt corn, pest and disease monitoring networks; stem rust resistant wheat; and technological progress in the U.S. pork industry. Herbicide Tolerant Crops: My collaborators and I explored farmer herbicide resistant weed concerns, the value of HT crops to farmers, farmer adoption of weed best management practices (WBMPs), and the effect of using herbicide price rebates to encourage WBMP adoption. The accomplishments were primarily new knowledge, though there was also anecdotal evidence of a change in action. We found that in 2008 a majority (54%) of corn, cotton, and soybean farmers were concerned about herbicide resistant weeds. While many soybean growers were concerned about herbicide resistant weeds, they still expected benefits from HT soybean to exceed one billion dollars. Even though these farmers perceived substantial benefits, concerns about herbicide resistant weeds increased intentions to use residual herbicides. We found that most farmers used many of the WBMPs recommended by weed scientists, though they were still reluctant to use WBMPs like residual herbicide or multiple herbicide applications. Our efforts found that providing small residual herbicide rebates (up to $4 per acre for soybean) could further increase residual herbicide use in HT soybean by up to 40 percent, but substantially larger rebates were required to get additional increases. Anecdotal evidence of a change in action includes Monsanto’s offering of residual herbicide rebates to farmers and an increase in the size of these rebates overtime: from $3 to $10 per acre for soybean. Insect Resistant Bt Corn: My collaborators and I explored farmer adoption incentives for Bt corn and farmer compliance with the EPA’s insect resistance management (IRM) requirements for Bt corn. Our results provided new knowledge regarding how factors like increased corn prices can increase incentives for farmers to adopt Bt corn, but also increase incentives to violate the EPA’s IRM requirements. We also showed how proposals to improve farmer compliance with the EPA’s IRM may not always have the desired effect. Pest Monitoring Networks: With additional support from the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA), my collaborators and I explored the value to U.S. soybean farmers of the USDA’s Integrated Pest Management-Pest Information Platform for Extension & Education (ipmPIPE) program. The ipmPIPE is a web based management information system and sentinel plot monitoring network designed to provide U.S. soybean farmers with information on the risk of soybean rust epidemics. Five types of new knowledge were generated by our efforts. First, our analysis corroborated previous estimates of the value of the network that showed it was an order of magnitude higher than the cost of maintaining the network. Second, our analysis showed that the value of the network was attributable to the opportunities it provided to farmers to learn about their risk of soybean rust in addition to serving as an early warning system for soybean rust. Third, our analysis showed that the value of the network could be improved by relocating sentinel plots from the southeast and northwestern U.S. to the central and north central U.S. Forth, we showed that while proposed reductions to the size of the sentinel plot network would reduce its value, improvements in the quality of the information generated by plots remaining in the network could mitigate these reductions in value (e.g., by improving the placement of these sentinel plots). Finally, we showed that when the benefits of a sentinel plot monitoring network like the ipmPIPE spillover from one farmer to another through improved area-wide management, it can be possible to fund the network using crop insurance by reallocating some of the insurance premiums paid by farmers. These benefits come from the reduced cost of providing insurance due to the improved disease management provided by the network. With additional funding from the National Science Foundation, my collaborators and I explored the potential for using a volunteer monitoring network to reduce the threat to Minnesota oak forest posed by invasive insect pests. With these resources, we established a volunteer network of woodland owners in north central Minnesota to monitor for invasive oak pest. This monitoring network’s 20 participants in 2012 expanded to about 60 participants in 2013. The establishment of this volunteer network provided new knowledge regarding the challenges of recruiting volunteers. While we initially hypothesized that a lack of trust in government agencies and lack of a shared concern regarding damaging woodland pests were the main obstacles to recruiting volunteers, our experiences now suggest that the biggest obstacle may instead be initially getting the attention of potential woodland owner volunteers. Stem Rust Resistant Wheat: With complementary support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, my collaborators and I explored the value of sustained investments in breeding stem rust resistant wheat varieties. The accomplishments of these efforts were new knowledge showing that previous estimates of the potential global losses in wheat production due to the failure of stem rust resistance in wheat were too high because they relied on unrealistic biological assumptions about the likelihood of a widespread stem rust pandemic. We also showed that the global value of sustained research to maintain stem rust resistance in wheat was around $50 million annually, which exceeds the current levels of investment. This new knowledge suggests that increased stem rust resistance research funding in wheat can be economically justified. Technological Progress in the U.S. Pork Industry: Using survey data collected by the National Pork Board in 1995, 2000, and 2005, my collaborators and I explored how technology adoption affected farm size and employee wages in the U.S. pork industry. The accomplishments of these efforts was new knowledge that showed complementarities between new production technologies was encouraging increased farm size and that employees working for these larger farms benefited by receiving higher wages than employees working on smaller farms.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Pardey, Beddow, Kriticos, Hurley, Park, Duveiller, Sutherst, Burdon, and Hodson (2013). Right-sizing Stem-Rust Research. Science 340(6129):147-148.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Pardey, Beddow, Hurley, Kriticos, Park, Duveiller, Sutherst, Burdon, and Hodson (2013). Supplementary Materials for Right-sizing Stem Rust Research. Science. www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/340/6129/147/DC1.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2009
Citation:
Aultman, Hurley, Mitchell, and Frisvold (2009). Valuing the Roundup Ready� Soybean Weed Management Program. Selected Paper: AAEA Conference, Milwaukee, WI. Available at http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/49342.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Hurley, Pardey and Rao. Returns to Food and Agricultural R&D Investments Worldwide, 1958-2011. InSTePP Brief. St. Paul: International Science and Technology Practice and Policy center, University of Minnesota, October 2013.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Beddow, Hurley, Kriticos and Pardey (2013). Measuring the Global Occurrence and Probabilistic Consequences of Wheat Stem Rust. Harvest Choice Technical Note: Saint Paul and Washington, D.C.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Xudong, Hurley, and Pardey (Resubmitted August 2013). Recalibrating the Reported Rates of Return to Food and Agricultural R&D. Applied Economics Staff Paper P12-8, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Dong, Mitchell, Hurley, and Frisvold (2012). Quantifying Farmer Adoption Intensity for Weed Resistance Management Practices and Its Determinants. Selected Paper: AAEA Conference, Seattle, WA. Available at http://purl.umn.edu/125194.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Rao, Hurley, and Pardey (2012). Recalibrating the Reported Rates of Return to Food and Agricultural R&D. Selected Poster: AAEA Conference, Seattle, WA. Available at http://purl.umn.edu/124581.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2010
Citation:
Aultman, Hurley, Homans, and Haight (2010). Valuing Monitoring Networks for Invasive Species: The Case of Soybean Rust. Selected Paper: AAEA Conference, Denver, CO. Available at http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/62011.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2009
Citation:
Frisvold, Hurley, and Mitchell (2009). Adoption of Best Management Practices to Control Weed Resistance By Cotton, Corn, and Soybean Growers. Selected Paper: AAEA Conference, Milwaukee, WI. Available at http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/49432.
|
Progress 01/01/12 to 12/31/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The purpose of this project is to evaluate how agricultural and forestry production technologies and management practices affect production, profitability, and risk; and to determine how public policy can be used to promote more sustainable agricultural and forestry production. Project outputs this year centered around three themes: i) monitoring networks for managing pests in forest and crop systems, ii) best management practices for herbicide resistant weeds in herbicide tolerant cropping systems, and iii) the value of maintaining wheat resistance to stem rust. For i), with additional support from a National Science Foundation grant, a survey of woodlot owners in three Minnesota counties was conducted to determine what influences their willingness to volunteer for programs like an invasive oak pest monitoring network. Following up on this survey, a network of about 20 volunteers was setup and a time cost study of establishing the monitoring network was supervised. Additionally, a paper evaluating the optimal design of a soybean rust monitoring network and the producer benefits from such a network was revised and submitted for external review. For ii), a manuscript estimating the value Roundup Ready soybean cropping systems to producers and the potential for using residual herbicide price rebates to increase the use of residual herbicides and decrease the likelihood of herbicide resistant weeds was revised and resubmitted for peer-review publication. Assistance was provided to the National Academies Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources as part of their steering Committee for a National Summit on Strategies to Manage Herbicide-Resistant Weeds. Results of research conducted under this project were presented at this National Summit to producers, crop consultants, and representatives from commodity groups, agribusiness, and government agencies. A symposium was organized for the annual meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association to identify obstacles to producer adoption of weed best management practices (WBMPs) and strategies for encouraging producer adoption in order to reduce the risk of herbicide resistant weeds. For iii), a manuscript evaluating the benefits of stem rust resistant wheat was prepared and submitted for peer-review publication. PARTICIPANTS: David Andow, Eugene Borgida, Allison Williams, Lesley Tylczak, Teresa McDill and Winston Oakley were collaborators for my invasive pest volunteer monitoring network research. Dave Andow is a professor of entomology and Eugene Borgida is a professor of psychology and law at the University of Minnesota (UofMN). Allison Williams is a graduate student in psychology and Lesley Tylczak is a graduate student in entomology at the UofMN. Teresa McDill supervises the Pest Detection and Response Unit of the Minnesota Department of Agriculture. Winston Oakley is a UofMN undergraduate who was funded to work on the project by a National Science Foundation Research Experiences for Undergraduates grant. Stephen Aultman, Frances Homans, and Robert Haight, were collaborators on my soybean rust monitoring network research. Stephen Aultman is a graduate of Applied Economics Graduate Program at the UofMN and now works for USAA Insurance. Frances Homans is a professor of applied economics at the UofMN, while Robert Haight works for the U.S. Forest Service at North Central Research Station. Stephen Aultman, Paul Mitchell and George Frisvold are collaborators on my residual herbicide and Roundup Ready crop work. Paul Mitchell is an associate professor of agricultural economics at the University of Wisconsin Madison, while George Frisvold is a professor and extension specialist of agricultural economics at the University of Arizona. Philip Pardey, Jason Beddow, Darren Kriticos, Robert Park, Etienne Duveiller, Robert Sutherst, Jeremy Burdon, and David Hodson are collaborators on my stem rust resistance wheat work. Philip Pardey is a professor of economics and Jason Beddow a post-doctoral researcher in the department of Applied Economics at the UofMN. Darren Kriticos and Jeremy Burdon are with the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) in Australia. Robert Park is with the Australian Cereal Rust Control Program in the Plant Breeding Institute at the University of Sydney. Etienne Duveiller and David Hodson are with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center. Robert Sutherst is with the Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions at the University of Queensland in Australia. Other key collaborators on work published this past year include Moises A. Resende-Filho, an assistant professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Brazil; Peter Orazem and James Kliebenstein, professors in the Department of Economics at Iowa State University; and Li Yu, an associate professor in the China Center for Human Capital and Labor Market Research at the Central University of Finance and Economics in China. TARGET AUDIENCES: The volunteer invasive oak pest monitoring network work targets the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Minnesota Department of Agriculture, and Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. The soybean rust monitoring network research is designed to inform the U.S. Department of Agriculture, United Soybean Board, American Seed Trade Association, and a host of other contributors to the Soybean Rust impPIPE (see www.ipmpipe.org/partners.cfm for a more comprehensive listing). The residual herbicide and Roundup Ready weed management program work targets U.S. corn, cotton, and soybean producers, the EPA, and decision makers in the seed and herbicide industry. The stem rust resistance wheat work targets policy makers in the U.S. and abroad and non-governmental funding organizations like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The primary outcomes over the past year relate to the generation of new knowledge. In terms of monitoring networks, my collaborators and I have found that a key challenge for establishing volunteer monitoring networks is volunteer recruitment. While many of the woodlot owners we surveyed indicated an interest in volunteering for a monitoring network like ours, few actually volunteered after receiving an invitation. Insights gained from our initial attempt to recruit volunteers and from the volunteers we were able to recruit are being used to revise our recruitment strategy, which will be reassessed in the spring of 2013. The time costs of establishing the network were higher than anticipated when compared to the first detector volunteer program for invasive tree pests currently managed by the Minnesota Department of Agriculture, a result that is likely attributable to our low level of recruitment and the substantial cost of initially developing a training program and material for or volunteers. Key results that my collaborators and I have found related to managing herbicide resistant weeds in Roundup Ready cropping systems are that growers are adopting many of the weed best management practices (WBMPs) recommended by weed scientists, though they are still reluctant to use some of the key WBMPs like residual herbicides or the application of multiple herbicides. Our efforts have also shown that providing relatively small residual herbicide rebates (up to 4 dollars per acre for soybean) could increase the use of residual herbicides in the Roundup Ready cropping system by up to 40 percent, but substantially larger rebates will be required to get additional increases in residual herbicide use. These results help explain why Monsanto has raised its residual herbicide rebates to soybean growers from 3 dollars per acre when they were first introduced to about 10 dollars per acre in 2012. Two key results have emerged from my collaborations looking at the value of stem rust resistant wheat. First, previous estimates of the potential global losses in wheat production due to the failure of stem rust resistance in wheat are too high because they rely on unrealistic biological assumptions about the likelihood of a widespread stem rust pandemic in wheat. Second, the global value of research to maintain stem rust resistance in wheat still exceeds the current levels of investment in stem rust resistance research even with our more muted estimates of the potential for loss. This result suggests that increased stem rust resistance research funding in wheat can be economically justified.
Publications
- Resende-Filho, M.A. and T.M. Hurley (2012). Information Asymmetry and Traceability Incentives for Food Safety. International Journal of Production Economics 139(2):596-603.
- Yu, L., T.M. Hurley, J. Kliebenstein, and P.F. Orazem (2012). Firm Size, Technical Change and Wages in the Pork Sector, 1990 -2005. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 37(2):263-279.
- Yu, L., T.M. Hurley, J. Kliebenstein, and P.F. Orazem (2012). A Test for Complementarities Among Multiple Technologies that Avoids the Curse of Dimensionality. Economic Letters 116(3):354-357.
|
Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The purpose of this project is to evaluate the profitability and risk of farmer adoption of new technologies, and to determine how public policy can be used to promote sustainable production. Project outputs this year centered around three major themes: i) monitoring networks for managing invasive pests in forest as well as crop systems, ii) best management practices for herbicide resistant weeds in herbicide tolerant cropping systems, and iii) technology adoption and wages in the U.S. pork industry. For i), a paper discussing the importance of developing sustainable extension programs for area-wide pest management was prepared and submitted to the Extension Disaster Education Network paper competition. A grant proposal was written to secure funding to investigate strategies for developing volunteer monitoring networks for invasive oak pests. This grant was funded and work on the project started, which has already resulted in one paper being submitted for peer-review publication based on pilot data collected from Minnesota woodlot owners in the summer of 2010. For ii), a manuscript estimating the value of using residual herbicides to manage weed resistance in Roundup Ready (RR) soybean cropping systems and the potential for using residual herbicide price rebates to increase the use of residual herbicides was finalized and submitted for peer-review publication. The manuscript was returned with a revision request. The manuscript is being revised and will be resubmitted in January. A similar manuscript is also being prepared for RR cotton and corn cropping systems. For iii), two manuscripts developed using data collected from hog producers and their employees in 1995 were revised and submitted for peer review. The first manuscript estimates the relationship between technology use and firm size, while also identifying which technologies complement each other and which are substitutes. This manuscript has been returned with a revision request and is currently being revised. The second paper explores the relationship between employee wages, technology adoption and firm size. It also received a revision request. The requested revisions have been completed and the paper resubmitted. PARTICIPANTS: Stephen Aultman, Frances Homans, Robert Haight, Scott Isard, Donald Hershman, Ed Sikora, Loren Giesler, James VanKirk, and Joseph Russo have been key collaborators on my soybean rust monitoring network research. Stephen Aultman is a student in the Applied Economics Graduate Program at the University of Minnesota (UofMN). Frances Homans is a professor of applied economics at the UofMN, while Robert Haight works for the U.S. Forest Service at North Central Research Station. Scott Isard, a professor of aerobiology at Penn State University; Donald Hershman, a professor of plant pathology at the University of Kentucky; Ed Sikora, a professor of entomology and plant pathology at Auburn University; Loren Giesler, a professor of plant pathology at the University of Nebraska; James VanKirk, Director of the Southern Region IPM Center; and Joseph Russo, ZedX, Inc. are key contacts with the Soybean Rust Integrated Pest Management-Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education group. David Andow, Eugene Borgida, Susan Solarz, and Allison Williams are key collaborators for my volunteer invasive pest monitoring research. Dave Andow is a professor of entomology and Eugene Borgida is a professor of psychology and law at the UofMN. Susan Solarz is a research associate and Allison Williams is a graduate student in psychology at the UofMN. Stephen Aultman, Paul Mitchell and George Frisvold are key collaborators on my residual herbicide and Roundup Ready crop work. Paul Mitchell is an associate professor of agricultural economics at the University of Wisconsin Madison, while George Frisvold is a professor and extension specialist of agricultural economics at the University of Arizona. Peter Orazem, James Kliebenstein, and Li Yu are key collaborators on my U.S. pork industry work. Peter Orazem and James Kliebenstein are professors in the Department of Economics at Iowa State University, while Li Yu is an assistant professor in the China Center for Human Capital and Labor Market Research at the Central University of Finance and Economics in China. TARGET AUDIENCES: The soybean rust monitoring network research is designed to inform the U.S. Department of Agriculture, United Soybean Board, American Seed Trade Association, and a host of other contributors to the Soybean Rust impPIPE (see www.ipmpipe.org/partners.cfm for a more comprehensive listing). The volunteer invasive pest monitoring work targets the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Minnesota Department of Agriculture, and Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. The residual herbicide and Roundup Ready weed management program work targets U.S. corn, cotton, and soybean producers, the U.S. U.S. EPA, and the seed and herbicide industry. The U.S. pork industry work provides information to producers and employees in the U.S. pork industry. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The primary outcomes over the past year relate to the generation of new knowledge. In terms of monitoring networks, my coauthors and I have found that a lack of community identity and trust in government are likely to discourage voluntary participation in invasive pest monitoring networks. We are using this information to develop strategies for building community identity and trust in government in order to increase participation in voluntary monitoring networks. These strategies will be tested experimentally over the next three summers in the context of monitoring for invasive oak pests in Minnesota. Research efforts related to managing herbicide resistant weeds in Roundup Ready (RR) cropping systems show that residual herbicide price rebates can substantially increase the use of residual herbicides in RR soybean cropping systems. Price rebates are not as effective at increasing residual herbicide use in the RR cotton and corn cropping systems. Increased use of residual herbicides is one of several key strategies that have been identified for reducing the risk of herbicide resistant weeds. The results of this research have been recognized by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), which appointment me to their planning committee for a National Summit on Strategies to Manage Herbicide-Resistant Weeds. This summit will take place in the spring of 2012 and will bring together grower, agribusiness, and government stakeholders to discuss what types of public and private incentives can be used to increase adoption of weed best management practices in order to slow the rapid emergence of herbicide resistant weeds that has accompanied the adoption of herbicide tolerant crops. In terms of technology adoption and wages in the U.S. pork industry, my coauthors and I have found that new technologies tend to be more complementary when many of them are bundled together. These large bundles of technology are more likely to be used by larger producers resulting in economies of scale. Employees working for these larger producers benefit from these economies of scale by receiving higher wages.
Publications
- Onstad, Mitchell, Hurley, Krupke, Lundgren, Porter, DiFonzo, Baute, Spencer, Hellmich, Buschman, Hutchison, and Tooker (2011). Seeds of Change: Corn Seed Mixtures for Resistance Management and IPM. Journal of Economic Entomology 104(2):343-52.
- Hurley (September 2011). Letter to the Editor: Superweeds Vs. Supercrops. Scientific American 3005(3):8.
|
Progress 01/01/10 to 12/31/10
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The purpose of this project is to evaluate the profitability and risk of farmer adoption of new agricultural technologies, and to determine how public policy can be used to promote sustainable production. Project outputs this year centered around three major themes: i) sentinel plot monitoring networks and information technology systems for helping producers manage the risk of soybean rust infestations, ii) residual herbicide use in Roundup Ready weed management (RRWM) programs to reduce the risk of glyphosate resistant weeds, and iii) resistance management policy for Bt corn. For i), results of research conducted under this project regarding the value of the soybean rust impPIPE (Integrated Pest Management-Pest Information Platform for Extension & Education) were presented at the American Agricultural and Applied Economics Association annual conference. In terms of new research, a model was developed to explore the potential for sustainably funding the soybean rust impPIPE through crop insurance programs. The results of this new research were discussed at the impPIPE Soybean Rust Monitoring Network Workshop. Based on feedback from workshop participants, a concept note was developed and circulated among national program leaders at the USDA's National Institute of Food and Agriculture to raise awareness of alternatives for sustainably funding pest monitoring and communication networks, and the need for further research. For ii), data collected by Monsanto and Marketing Horizons on producer production plans related to the adoption of the RRWM program and residual herbicides was used to assess the effect of glyphosate weed resistance on the value of the RRWM program to producers. The results of this analysis are currently being prepared for peer review publication and will be used to develop educational materials for extension educators and producers. For iii), research conducted under this project in previous years was synthesized and incorporated into a manuscript written by a team of researches affiliated with NC-205, the regional research committee for the Ecology and Management of European Corn Borer and Other Lepidopteran Pests of Corn. The manuscript assesses the current state of knowledge and research needs regarding the potential impacts of proposed changes to the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) current insect resistance management (IRM) requirements for Bt corn. The manuscript has been accepted for publication and was submitted to the public docket for consideration by the EPA's scientific advisory panel on Insect Resistance Management for SmartStax Refuge-in-the-Bag, a Plant- Incorporated Protectant (PIP) Corn Seed Blend. PARTICIPANTS: Stephen Aultman, Frances Homans, Robert Haight, Scott Isard, Donald Hershman, Ed Sikora and Loren Giesler are key collaborators on my soybean rust monitoring network research. Stephen Aultman is a current student of the Applied Economics Graduate Program. Frances Homans is a professor of applied economics, while Robert Haight works for the U.S. Forest Service at North Central Research Station. Scott Isard, a professor of aerobiology at Penn State University; Donald Hershman, a professor of plant pathology at the University of Kentucky; Ed Sikora, a professor of entomology and plant pathology at Auburn University; and Loren Giesler, a professor of plant pathology at the University of Nebraska are my key contacts with the Soybean Rust Integrated Pest Management-Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education group. Stephen Aultman, Paul Mitchell and George Frisvold are key collaborators on my residual herbicide and Roundup Ready crop work. Paul Mitchell is a professor of agricultural economics at the University of Wisconsin Madison, while George Frisvold is a professor and extension specialist of agricultural economics at the University of Arizona. Michelle Obermeier-Starke and John Soteres from Monsanto also played a key role in data acquisition for this research. David Onstad, a professor of entomology at the University of Illinois; Paul Mitchell; Jonathan Lundgren, a professor of entomology at the USDA-ARS, North Central Agricultural Research Laboratory, Brookings, SD; Patrick Porter, an extension entomologist at Texas AgriLife Extension; Christian Krupke, a professor of entomology at Purdue University; Joseph Spencer, a professor of entomology at the University of Illinois; Christine DiFonzo, a professor of entomology at Michigan State University; Tracey Baute, an entomologist with the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture; Richard Hellmich, an entomologist at the USDA-ARS, Corn Insects and Crop Genetics Research Unit, Ames, IA; Lawrent Buschman, a professor of entomology at Kansas State University; William Hutchison, a professor of entomology at the University of Minnesota; and John Tooker, a professor of entomology at Penn State University are key collaborators on my recent insect resistance management work. TARGET AUDIENCES: The soybean rust monitoring network research is designed to inform the U.S. Department of Agriculture, United Soybean Board, American Seed Trade Association, and a host of other contributors to the Soybean Rust impPIPE (see www.ipmpipe.org/partners.cfm for a more comprehensive listing). The residual herbicide and Roundup Ready weed management program work is designed to inform U.S. corn, cotton, and soybean producers, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the seed and herbicide industry. The insect resistance management work is designed to inform the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. corn producers, and the seed corn industry. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The primary outcomes associated with my efforts over the past year relate to the generation of new knowledge. In terms of soybean rust monitoring networks, my coauthors and I are finding that under the right circumstances (e.g., when pests are highly mobile and migratory) pest monitoring and communication networks can reduce the cost of claims paid to producers by crop insurance providers. These cost savings can be used to support the monitoring and communication networks and reduce the insurance premiums paid by producers. Reducing the cost of insurance to producers increases profitability. Furthermore, the monitoring and communication networks reduce risk associated with potential pest infestations. Estimates indicate that the value of the soybean rust ipmPIPE to producers substantially exceeds its costs. Continued funding for this valuable tool is tenuous however because soybean rust has not been a significant problem for most U.S. producers (possibly due to the success of the soybean rust ipmPIPE) making current levels of public funding unsustainable. Our research offers an alternative way to sustainably fund the network so that it can continue to provide benefits to producers. In terms of the residual herbicide use with the RRWM program, my coauthors and I are finding that using a residual herbicides can increase the value of the RRWM program by helping to control weed escapes and reducing the the risk of glyphosate resistant weeds. These benefits seem to be well recognized in the context of soybean production, but not as well recognized in the context of corn and cotton production. This new knowledge highlights the need for additional research to understand why producers value the use of residual herbicides in the RRWM program for soybean more than for corn and cotton. Understanding these differences will help researchers identify the best strategies for producers to use to manage glyphosate weed resistance in their alternative crops. In terms of Bt corn IRM, the results of this project continue to provide information to the EPA to help it refine its IRM requirements as the Bt corn technology evolves. Producers have benefited tremendously from the use of Bt corn, which was regulated by the EPA, and have not suffered the types of control failures that are now emerging with the RRWM technology, which was not regulated by the EPA. Arguably, the success and durability of the Bt corn technology is directly related to proactive regulation by the EPA that has been informed by the work conducted under this project since its inception.
Publications
- Frisvold, G., Hurley, T.M., and Mitchell, P. 2009. Overview: Herbicide Resistant Crops--Diffusion, Benefits, Pricing, and Resistance Management. AgBioForum 12(3&4):244-248.
- Hurley, T.M., Mitchell, P., and Frisvold, G. 2009. Characteristics of Herbicides and Weed-Management Programs Most Important to Corn, Cotton, and Soybean. AgBioForum 12(3&4):269-280.
- Hurley, T.M., Mitchell, P., and Frisvold, G. 2009. Weed Management Costs, Weed Best Management Practices, and the Roundup Ready Weed Management Program. AgBioForum 12(3&4):281-290.
- Hurley, T.M., Mitchell, P., and Frisvold, G. 2009. Effects of Weed-Resistance Concerns and Resistance-Management Practices on the Value of Roundup Ready Crops. AgBioForum 12(3&4):291-302.
- Frisvold, G., Hurley, T.M., and Mitchell, P. 2009. Adoption of Best Management Practices to Control Weed Resistance by Corn, Cotton, and Soybean Growers. AgBioForum 12(3&4):370-381.
|
Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The purpose of this project is to evaluate the profitability and risk of farmer adoption of new agricultural production technologies, and to determine how public policy can be used promote sustainable production. Project outputs this year centered around two major themes: i) the benefits of publically funded management information systems for helping producers manage the risk of soybean rust infestations, and ii) the effect glyphosate resistant weeds on the profitability and sustainability of glyphosate tolerant crops. For i), the model that was developed during the 2008 reporting period for characterizing the benefits to producers of the Integrated Pest Management-Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education's (IPM-PIPE) soybean rust monitoring network was modified after discussions with various colleagues. The original model focused on the value of the network in terms of helping producers learn about their risk of soybean rust. This year, the model was extended to include the value of the network as an early warning system for producers. The implications of these modifications were reported at the 2009 National Soybean Rust Symposium where additional feedback was obtained for further improvements. The model is now being fine tuned in response to this feedback and the results are being prepared for peer review publication. For ii), data on producer production practices related to the adoption of glyphosate tolerant crops was obtained from Marketing Horizons. This data was supplemented with data from that National Agricultural Statistics Service and used to estimate how producer adoption of various weed best management practices (WBMPs) for mitigating herbicide resistance was related to individual producer characteristics, operation characteristics, the existence of glyphosate resistant weeds in the producer's state, and the producer's concerns about weed resistance to herbicides. The data was also used the models and statistical methods developed during the 2008 reporting period to assess how glyphosate resistance and the adoption of various WBMPs were affecting weed management costs and the profitability of glyphosate tolerant crops. The results of this analysis were reported at the 2009 Beltwide Cotton Conference, American Agricultural and Applied Economics Association annual conference, and the 57th Annual Meeting of the Entomological Society of America. In addition to the five conference papers developed from this work, four other papers have been prepared and submitted for peer reviewed publication. Three additional papers are in various stages of production for peer review publication. PARTICIPANTS: Stephen Aultman, Frances Homans, Robert Haight, and Scott Isard are key collaborators on my soybean rust monitoring network research. Stephen Aultman is a current student of the Applied Economics Graduate Program. Frances Homans is a Professor in the Applied Economics Graduate Program, while Robert Haight works for the U.S. Forest Service at North Central Research Station. Scott Isard is a Professor of Aerobiology at Penn State University and our key contact with the Soybean Rust Integrated Pest Management-Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education group. Paul Mitchell and George Frisvold are key collaborators on my glyphosate weed resistance work. Paul Mitchell is an assistant professor at the University of Wisconsin Madison, while George Frisvold is a professor and extension specialist at the University of Arizona. Michelle Obermeier-Starke and John Soteres from Monsanto also played a key role in data acquisition for this research. TARGET AUDIENCES: The soybean rust monitoring network research is designed to inform the U.S. Department of Agriculture, United Soybean Board, American Seed Trade Association, and a host of other contributors to the Soybean Rust Integrated Pest Management-Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education program (see http://www.ipmpipe.org/partners.cfm for a more comprehensive listing). The glyphosate resistant weed research is designed to inform U.S. corn, cotton, and soybean producers, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the seed and herbicide industry. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The primary outcomes associated with my efforts over the past year relate to new knowledge. In terms of soybean rust monitoring networks, my coauthors and I have found that the benefits of the monitoring network in terms of producers learning about the risk of soybean rust infestation is initially very high, but declines rapidly. The value of the network as an early warning system is also very high, but does not decline rapidly overtime. Therefore, while the value of the network in terms of learning no longer appears high enough to justify the current cost of the network, the value in terms of an early warning system does appear high enough to justify continued funding of the network. Our analysis also provides guidance to decision makers in terms of how to locate monitoring sites so they produce the greatest benefits as an early warning system. In terms of the risk of glyphosate resistant weeds, my coauthors and I have found that many producers are adopting a wide variety of weed best management practices (WBMPs) for mitigating glyphosate resistance. However, there are several WBMPs that are not widely adopted: using supplemental tillage to control weeds, cleaning equipment between fields to reduce the spread of weed seeds, and using multiple herbicides with multiple modes of action within and across growing seasons. Several of these practices that are not so widely adopted are practices that could produce significant benefits in terms of mitigating weed resistance to glyphosate. Our results show that producers have changed their production practices in response to the emergence of glyphosate resistant weeds and in response to weed resistance concerns. Some producers have adopted more WBMPs, while others have switched which WBMPs they employ. Finally, our results show that weed management programs based on herbicide tolerant crops are still profitable even when producers incorporate various WBMPs. These results provide important information to producers in terms of understanding the costs and benefits of deploying alternative WBMPs. The results may also prove useful to the Environmental Protection Agency as it considers the appropriate scope of its involvement in regulating the use of herbicide tolerant crops.
Publications
- Hurley, T.M, Mitchell, P. and Frisvold, G. 2009. Factors Affecting Weed Control Costs and Farmer Values for Roundup Ready Cotton. Proceedings of the Beltwide Cotton Conference, San Antonio, TX, January 5-8, 2009.
- Frisvold, G., Hurley, T.M., and P. Mitchell, P. 2009. Cotton Grower Adoption of Weed Resistance Management Practices. Proceedings of the Beltwide Cotton Conference, San Antonio, TX, January 5-8, 2009.
- Hurley, T.M., Mitchell, P., and Frisvold, G. 2009. Adoption, Residual Herbicide Use And Grower Values For Roundup Ready Cotton. Proceedings of the Beltwide Cotton Conference, San Antonio, TX, January 5-8, 2009.
|
Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The purpose of this project is to evaluate the profitability and risk of farmer adoption of new agricultural production technologies, and to determine how public policy can be used promote sustainable production. Project outputs this year centered around three themes: i) how publically or privately funded traceability systems can be used to provide producers with incentive for improve food safety, ii) how publically funded management information systems can help producers manage the risk of soybean rust more cost effectively, and iii) how producers can reduce the risk of glyphosate weed resistance in order to sustain the profitability of glyphosate tolerant crops. For i), outputs include the development of a principal agent model that incorporates a traceability system designed to encourage producers to report adverse production events that compromise food safety. A manuscript was developed to report the model and its implications. The manuscript is currently under peer review. For ii), data was secured from the Pest Information Platform for Extension & Education. The data provides results from a four-year soybean rust monitoring project that was designed to provide producers with timely information on their risk of soybean rust infections so they can make better management decisions. The data was used to guide the development a model that characterizes the benefits of the soybean rust monitoring network to producers in terms of learning about the actual risk of soybean rust infections and in terms of allowing producers to make more cost effective soybean rust management decision. For iii), strategies that can reduce the risk of glyphosate resistant weeds were identified: use of additional herbicides with glyphosate, improved timing of glyphosate applications, appropriate rates of glyphosate, adequate early season weed control, adequate equipment preparation to reduce weed seed contamination across fields, adequate control of weed escapes, and appropriate scouting. A model of producer demand for glyphosate tolerant crops was developed that can be used to assess the pecuniary and non-pecuniary benefits of glyphosate tolerant crops to producers and how these benefits are affected by the adoption of strategies designed to reduce the risk of glyphosate resistant weeds and improve the sustainability of glyphosate tolerant crops. Statistical methods for estimating key model parameters using producer survey data were identified, as was the data need to estimate these parameters and conduct the benefit analysis. PARTICIPANTS: Moises A. Resende-Filho, a key coauthor on my traceability work, is a former student of the Applied Economics Graduate Program and an Assistant Professor in the Departamento de Analise Economica, Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, Brazil. Shefali Mehta, Stephen Aultman, Frances Homans, Robert Haight, and Scott Isard are key collaborators on my soybean rust monitoring network work. Shefali Mehta is a former student while Stephen Aultman is a current student of the Applied Economics Graduate Program. Frances Homans is an Associate Professor at the University of Minnesota, while Robert Haight works for the U.S. Forest Service at North Central Research Station. Scott Isard is a professor at Pennsylvania State University. A subcontract from the Pest Information Platform for Extension & Education made it possbile to Shefali Mehta and Stephen Aultman to work on the project. Paul Mitchell and George Frisvold are key collaborators on my glyphosate resistance work. Paul Mitchell is an assistant professor at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, while George Frisvold is a professor and extension specialist at the University of Arizona. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The primary outcomes associated with my efforts over the past year relate to new knowledge. In terms of traceability systems, my coauthor and I found that processors will have private incentives to invest in these systems in order to have a mechanism for encouraging producers to reduce food safety risks, which means public funding may be unnecessary. In terms of soybean rust monitoring networks, my coauthors and I have found that the benefits of a monitoring network are initially very high, but decline rapidly over time as producers gain a better understanding of the risk of soybean rust and make more appropriate management decisions in response. This result suggests that current proposals to reduce the scope of future soybean rust monitoring efforts can reduce the cost of monitoring efforts without substantially reducing the benefits enjoyed by producers and therefore, may indeed be well justified. In terms of the risk of glyphosate resistant weeds, the most important outcome to date is it appears possible to estimate the pecuniary and non-pecuniary benefits of insect resistant and herbicide tolerant crops within the context of a system of demand equations based on observable producer decisions. This is a benefit because there is a vast literature on demand estimation and a wide array of statistical tools that have already been developed to handle various types of demand equations. Previous models have been framed in terms of unobservable producer preferences (e.g. the desire for convenience), which make data collection and analysis much more challenging.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
|
Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The purpose of this project is to evaluate the profitability and risk of farmer adoption of new agricultural production technologies and determine how regulatory policy can be used promote more beneficial uses of new agricultural production technologies. Project outputs this year focused primarily on obtaining a better understanding of when new technologies will be complementary and developing new tools to measure how risk preferences and risk perceptions influence farmer decisions. To better understand when new risk management technologies will be complementary, the market insurance, self-insurance, and self-protection model I developed to better understand farmers' integrated pest management decisions under CSREES Award 2003-41530-01595 was refined based on reviewer comments and reanalyzed. The revised model and analysis was submitted for peer review publication. To better understand when new production technologies in the hog production industry are complementary, I
worked to develop a new method for analyzing technology adoption decisions. This new method was used with survey data (collected by the National Pork Producers Council, National Pork Board, and National Hog Farmer Magazine in 1995, 2000, and 2005) to analyze complementary technology adoption decisions in the pork industry. A manuscript reporting this new method and the results was drafted and is currently being revised for peer reviewed publication. This manuscript was presented at the annual meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA). The same survey data was used to analyze the relationship between new technology adoption and employee wages in the hog production industry. A manuscript with the results of this analysis was drafted and is being revised for peer review publication. This manuscript was also presented at the annual AAEA meeting. New experimental protocols for measuring risk preferences and risk perceptions were evaluated using data collected from
economic experiments conducted in late 2006 and early 2007. In addition to these activities, I conducted additional analysis of fertilizer corn response data collected between 1997 - 2001 to better understand the variability of corn response to nitrogen and phosphorus over time and space. The results of this analysis are currently being prepared for peer reviewed publication. I also drafted the section of the background paper Science, Technology and Skills related to technology adoption and risk.
PARTICIPANTS: Project PI: Terrance Hurley, Associate Professor, Applied Economics, University of Minnesota; Partner Organizations: National Pork Board, Des Moines, IA; National Hog Farmer Magazine, Minneapolis, MN; Informal Collaborators: James Kliebenstein, Professor, Department of Economics, Iowa State University; Ines Langrock, Graduate Student, Applied Economics, University of Minnesota; Gary Malzer, Professor, Department of Soil, Water, & Climate, University of Minnesota; Paul Mitchell, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin; Peter Orazem, Professor, Department of Economics, Iowa State University; Li Yu, Graduate Student, Department of Economics, Iowa State University;
Impacts
The primary outcomes associated with my efforts over the past year relate to new knowledge. In terms of understanding complementary risk management activities, the market insurance, self-insurance, and self-protection model I developed and analyzed provides new knowledge of the conditions required for market insurance and self-insurance to be complementary. Past research has typically found that market insurance is a substitute, not complement, for self-insurance. My analysis shows that when self-protection can be used with market insurance and self-insurance, market insurance can complement self-insurance instead of substitute for it. Ultimately, this result could help the United States Department of Agriculture's Risk Management Agency make better decisions regarding requests from companies like Monsanto to provide discounted crop insurance premiums to farmers that use products like triple-stack Bt corn. The new method I developed with Ms. Lu, Prof. Orazem, and Prof.
Kliebenstein for better understanding complementary technologies has provided new knowledge regarding why the size of hog production facilities has grown so rapidly in recent decades. The primary benefit of the method is that it allows researches to evaluate bundles of lots of technologies rather than just pairs (the method typically used in the past). The primary finding from this analysis is that bundling lots of technologies results in complementarities. These complementarities can be masked when comparing technologies in pairs. The large investments hog producers must make to take advantage of these large complementary technology bundles preclude adoption by small producers. The method we have developed is generally applicable to other agricultural and non-agricultural enterprises, so there is the potential for wide spread adoption of the method in the future by other researchers. My work to development new experimental protocols for measuring risk preferences and risk perceptions
with Ms. Langrock has also provided new knowledge. Specifically, our experimental results have revealed potential problems in the experimental protocols used by other researchers in the past. For example, many researchers have used what are referred to as scoring rules to measure risk perceptions. The use of scoring is typically justified based on theory. Our work attempts to validate scoring rules in practice rather than theory. Our results suggest scoring rules may produce systematically biased estimates in risk perceptions that are inconsistent with the theory. If these results are replicable, researches will need to develop new protocols for measuring risk perceptions or new methods for correcting data collected using scoring rules for systematic biases.
Publications
- Hurley, T.M. and Mitchell, P.D. 2008. Insect Resistance Management: Adoption and Compliance. Insect Resistance Management: Biology, Economics, and Prediction (D.W. Onstad). pp. 227-254.
- Langrock, I. 2007. Understanding Differences in Risky Behavior: How much do Differences in Risk Preferences and Risk Perceptions matter? Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Minnesota.
- Pardey, P., James, J., Alston, J., Wood, S., Koo, B., Binenbaum, E., Hurley, T., Glewwe, P., Mayer, J., Jones, R., De Groote, H., Kanampiu, F., McDermott, J., Jost, C., and Mariner, J. 2007. Science, Technology and Skills. St. Paul, MN: University of Minnesota, International Science and Technology Practice and Policy.
- Yu, L., Hurley, T., Kliebenstein, J., and Orazem, P.F. 2007. Testing for Complementarity and Substitutability among Multiple Technologies: The Case of U.S. Hog Farms. Selected Paper: AAEA Conference, Portland, OR. Available at http://agecon.lib.umn.edu/cgi-bin/pdf_view.pl?paperid=26209&ftype=.pd f
- Yu, L., Hurley, T., Kliebenstein, J., and Orazem, P.F. 2007. Firm Size, Technical Change and Wages: Evidence from the Pork Sector from 1990-2005. Selected Paper: AAEA Conference, Portland, OR. Available at http://agecon.lib.umn.edu/cgi-bin/pdf_view.pl?paperid=26368&ftype=.pd f
|
Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/06
Outputs
The purpose of this project is to evaluate the profitability and implications of regulatory policy on the adoption, use, profitability, and environmental impact of new agricultural technologies. The technologies of primary interest include plant-incorporated protectants (PIPs), integrated pest management (IPM), and precision agriculture (PA). PIP related research focused on reviewing and synthesizing the literature on technology adoption and regulatory compliance. The insights gained from this literature are being used with demand estimates for corn rootworm active Bt corn published in Langrock, Hurley, and Ostlie (2006) to develop an insect resistance management model that treats adoption and compliance decisions as endogenous. This work is a collaborative effort with Dr. Paul Mitchell (assistant professor, University of Wisconsin). Finally, results and models developed under this project were used to advise the EPA when I participated on the FIFRA Scientific
Advisory Panel: Analysis of a Natural Refuge of Non-Cotton Hosts for Monsanto's Bollgard II Cotton in June. IPM research focused on finalizing the project, 'Reducing Risk to Accelerate Adoption of Sweet Corn IPM' (USDA CSREES Award #: 2003-41530-01595), which complements this project. Final results from the project indicate that IPM for fresh market sweet corn will generally not be attractive to farmers due to the high value of the final product, importance of quality, and relatively low cost of insecticides. IPM for processed sweet corn will generally be more attractive. Out of the 36 distinct pesticide treatment strategies that were evaluated, the three that were best in terms of profitability and risk (i.e. risk efficient) were IPM based strategies. Additionally, significant effort continues to be devoted to improving risk management models that incorporate market insurance, self-insurance, and self-protection in order to better understand IPM and other production decisions. Most
recently, the model has been extended to include moral hazard. This work continues to be a collaborative effort with Dr. Mitchell and Dr. William Hutchison (professor in Entomology). PA research continued to analyze multi-year farm level data collected by Dr. Gary Malzer (professor in Soil, Water, and Climate). Oishi Kikuo (research assistant, Applied Economics), Dr. Malzer, and I used this data to test whether temporal variability substantially limits the potential for managing spatially variable corn response to nitrogen and phosphorus. Results indicate that unpredictable temporal variability reduced the potential profitability of variable rate fertilizer applications by about one-third. These results were presented at the annual meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association and the Eighth International Conference on Precision Agriculture & Other Precision Resources Management. Another significant accomplishment for this project was Dr. Kikuo's completion of his Ph.D.
dissertation.
Impacts
The results of this project are being used by the Environmental Protection Agency to help guide regulatory policy decisions regarding the registration of plant-incorporated protectants. The statistical models developed under this project are facilitating the identification of fertility management strategies that are profitable to farmers and that can reduce the run-off and leaching of agricultural chemicals to the benefit of the environment. The production risk models being developed shed new light on how regulatory policy can be used to positively influence the adoption and use of new agricultural technologies and environmental best management practices.
Publications
- Kikuo (2006). Does Precision Agriculture Pay? Profitability Of Variable Rate Of Fertilizer Application Econometrics And Geostatistics Approach. Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Minnesota.
- Hurley, Langrock, and Ostlie (2006). Estimating the Benefits of Bt Corn and Cost of Insect Resistance Management Ex Ante. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 31(2): 355-375.
- Langrock and Hurley (2006). Farmer Demand for Corn Rootworm Bt Corn: Do Insect Resistance Management Guidelines Really Matter? Agricultural Biotechnology: Economics and Policy (R.E. Just, J.M. Alston, and D. Zilberman). New York: Springer Publishers.
- Mitchell and Hurley (2006). Adverse Selection, Moral Hazard, and Grower Compliance with Bt Corn Refuge. Agricultural Biotechnology: Economics and Policy (R.E. Just, J.M. Alston, and D. Zilberman). New York: Springer Publishers.
- Hurley, Secchi, and Hellmich (2006). Managing European Corn Borer Resistance to Bt Corn with Dynamic Refuges. Agricultural Biotechnology: Economics and Policy (R.E. Just, J.M. Alston, and D. Zilberman). New York: Springer Publishers.
|
Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/05
Outputs
The purpose of this project is to evaluate the profitability and implications of regulatory policy on the adoption, use, profitability, and environmental impact of new agricultural technologies. The technologies of interest include plant-incorporated protectants (PIPs), integrated pest management (IPM), and precision agriculture (PA). PIP research focused on the cost of farmer compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) insect resistance management (IRM) requirements and farmer compliance with these requirements. Ines Langrock (research assistant, Applied Economics) and I used survey data collected under this project and a USDA/IFAFS grant to evaluate the cost of regulatory policies to Minnesota farmers. The results of this analysis show the primary cost of IRM regulations is the opportunity cost of planting refuge instead of Bt corn. The results of this analysis were presented at the NC-1003 conference on the Economics of Regulation of Agricultural
Biotechnologies. The results of this analysis have been submitted for publication. I am now incorporating the results of this analysis into a regulatory compliance model with Dr. Paul Mitchell (assistant professor, University of Wisconsin). The initial implications of this model were reported at the NC-1003 conference. Jessica Goldberg (Program on Agricultural Technology Studies, University of Wisconsin), Jeanne Merrill (Michael Fields Agricultural Institute), and I also used the survey data to evaluate farmer compliance with IRM. The results show previous estimates of compliance are too high. We also found that compliance is sensitive to farm size. These results were presented at academic and industry meetings, and were published in AgBioForum. IPM research focused on analyzing a model of agricultural production risk from a new perspective to better understand risk management in terms of market insurance, self-insurance, and self-protection. The results provide a classical
characterization of important relationships between insurance and self-protection in terms of scale and substitution effects. The characterization provides an opportunity to reexamine how regulatory policy can promote IPM and other environmental best management practices. The results have been submitted for publication. PA research has turned to analyzing multi-year farm level data collected by Dr. Gary Malzer (professor in Soil, Water, and Climate). Oishi Kikuo (research assistant, Applied Economics), Dr. Malzer, and I are using this data to test whether temporal variability substantially limits the potential for managing spatially variable corn response to nitrogen and phosphorus. Initial results suggest temporal variation does not diminish the value of spatially variable fertilizer applications. Oishi's research assistantship was provided by Dr. Malzer. Additionally, we published a paper on methods for estimating the spatial variability of corn response to nitrogen in the Journal
of Agricultural and Resource Economics. A summary of PA project work over the past five years was also part of a symposium I organized for the annual American Agricultural Economics Association conference.
Impacts
The results of this project will be used by the Environmental Protection Agency to help guide regulatory policy decisions regarding the re registration of plant incorporated protectants. The statistical models developed under this project are facilitating the identification of fertility management strategies that are profitable to farmers and that can reduce the run-off and leaching of agricultural chemicals to the benefit of the environment. The production risk model developed under this project will shed new light on how regulatory policy can be used to positively influence the adoption and use of new agricultural technologies.
Publications
- Merrill, J., J. Goldberger, and T. Hurley (2005). Bt Corn Farmer Compliance With Insect Resistance Management Requirements In Minnesota And Wisconsin. AgBioForum 8(2&3):151-160.
- Hurley, T.M., O. Kikuo, and G. Malzer (2005). Estimating the Potential Value of Variable Rate Nitrogen Applications: A Comparison of Spatial Econometric and Geostatistical Models. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 30(2):231-249.
- Hurley, T.M. (2005). Bt Resistance Management: Experiences From the U.S. Environmental Costs and Benefits of Transgenic Crops in Europe (J. Wessler). Wageningen UR Frontis Series vol. 7, Springer, Dordrecht. pp. 81-93.
- Buttel, F., J. Merrill, L. Chen, J. Goldberger, and T. Hurley (2005). Bt corn farmer compliance with insect resistance management requirements: results from the 2002 Minnesota and Wisconsin farm polls. Staff paper P05-6, St. Paul, MN: University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
|
Progress 01/01/04 to 12/31/04
Outputs
The purpose of this project is to evaluate the profitability and implications of regulatory policy on the adoption, use, profitability, and environmental impact of new agricultural technologies. The technologies of primary interest currently include plant-incorporated protectants (PIPs), integrated pest management (IPM), and information intensive farming, also known as precision agriculture (PA). Research effort related to PIPs focused on my supervision of Ines Langrock's completion of her plan B paper and master's degree. The paper used survey data collected under this project and a USDA/IFAFS grant to evaluate the cost of alternative PIP regulatory policies on Minnesota farmers. In the coming year, this paper will be refined for submission to a peer reviewed journal. New survey data regarding farmer compliance with PIP regulatory policy was also collected during the past year in Minnesota and Wisconsin. This survey replicated a survey conducted two years ago in
Minnesota and Wisconsin, and last year in Nebraska. The data from these surveys will be combined to further understand how regulatory policy is affecting PIP adoption and farm profitability. The data will also be used to understand the extent to which farmers are embracing or ignoring PIP regulatory policy. Research efforts related to IPM have focused on the development of a new model for understanding agricultural production risk. This work was conducted with the research assistance of Xiangming Fang whose efforts were funded by a North Central IPM grant. This work has produced a draft manuscript that integrates two alternative perspectives of production risk within a single model. This integration helps illuminate the types of incentives that promote or discourage the adoption of new IPM strategies. Over the coming year this model will be used to assess alternative strategies (e.g. best management practice insurance) for promoting IPM adoption. This integration will also illuminate
the welfare benefits and adoption incentive for new PIPs. PA efforts are finally beginning to bear fruit in terms of peer reviewed publications. Over the past year, one manuscript was published while another is being revised at the request of an editor. The two papers develop and compare new statistical models for analyzing PA field data to determine if variable rate fertilizer applications can be profitably employed. These tools have broad applications even beyond PA field data. A third manuscript that develops additional tools has been prepared, but not yet submitted for publication. Dr. Gary Malzer, a professor in Soil, Water, and Climate, provided new data this year for Oishi Kikuo, a research assistant in Applied Economics, to analyze under my supervision. The new data set includes a temporal dimension that was missing from previous data. This temporal dimension will provide new opportunities for better understanding the profitability potential of PA. In addition to data, Dr.
Malzer continues to provide funding for Oishi's research assistantship.
Impacts
The results of this project continue to be used by the Environmental Protection Agency to help guide regulatory policy for plant incorporated protectants. The statistical models developed under this project are facilitating the identification of fertility management strategies that are profitable to farmers and that reduce the run-off and leaching of agricultural chemicals to the benefit of the environment. The production risk model being developed has the potential to shed new light on how regulatory policy can be used to positively influence the adoption and use of new agricultural technologies.
Publications
- Hurley, T.M., Malzer, G., and Kilian, B. 2004. Estimating Site-Specific Crop Response Functions: A Conceptual Framework and Geostatistical Model. Agronomy Journal 96:1331-1343.
- Hurley, T.M., Mitchell, P., and Rice, M. 2004. Risk and the value of Bt Corn. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86(2):345-358.
|
Progress 01/01/03 to 12/31/03
Outputs
The purpose of this project is to evaluate the profitability and implications of regulatory policy on the adoption, use, profitability, and environmental impact of new agricultural technologies. The technologies of primary interest currently include plant-incorporated protectants (PIPs), integrated pest management (IPM), and information intensive farming, also known as precision agriculture (PA). PIPs research effort focused on revising and resubmitting a manuscript for publication, and supervising the analysis of two 2002 farmer surveys. The revised manuscript, which evaluates the effect of Bt corn on farm profitability and production risk, has been accepted for publication. The analysis of the GM crop survey data is the being used by two Masters students to fulfill their degrees research requirement. One student successfully defended her research paper and is now in the process of preparing the results for peer review publication. These results show the value to
Minnesota farmers of a new corn rootworm PIP. The results also measure the cost to farmers of meeting the Environmental Protection Agencys (EPA) insect resistant management (IRM) requirements for PIPs. Another student is using the survey data to evaluate what influences farmer adoption of PIPs and farmer compliance with the EPAs IRM requirements for PIPs. The survey data was also used to prepare a manuscript with collaborators from the University of Wisconsin. This manuscript replicates and extends recent reports on farmer compliance with the EPAs IRM requirements for Bt corn. The manuscript will be finalized early in 2004 and then submitted for peer review publication. The addition of IPM technologies in 2003 represents a new avenue for this project. The purpose of this research is to identify obstacles to the adoption of IPM methods for sweet corn in the North Central U.S. One potential obstacle is the contracts used by processors to assure an adequate supply of quality sweet corn
for processing. To explore this explanation, we developed questions that can be used to survey processors and farmers regarding their use of contracts and IPM. In 2004, these survey questions will be refined and form the basis of a sweet corn processor survey. PA research in 2003 continued to focus on refining the statistical methods used to evaluate the profitability and environmental consequences of variable rate nitrogen applications (VRA) on corn. The results of these refinements are new geostatistical and spatial autoregressive models that improve upon previous estimates of the potential value of VRA based on experimental field data. The results of this research were submitted for peer review in two separate papers. Both papers were returned for revision. We also worked to develop better methods for identifying and comparing alternative factors farmers can use to guide VRA (e.g. soil test, topographical, or remotely sensed information). This work will continue in 2004.
Impacts
The results of this project continue to be used by the Environmental Protection Agency to guide regulatory policy for genetically modified insect resistant crops. The statistical models developed under this project will facilitate the identification of fertility management strategies that are profitable to farmers and that reduce the run-off and leaching of agricultural chemicals to the benefit of the environment.
Publications
- Hurley and Babcock (2003). Valuing Pest Control: How Much is Due to Risk Aversion? Risk Management and the Environment: Agriculture in Perspective (B.A. Babcock, R.W. Fraser and J.N. Lekakis). Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 134-144.
|
Progress 01/01/02 to 12/31/02
Outputs
The purpose of this project is to evaluate the profitability and implications of regulatory policy on the adoption, use, profitability, and environmental impact of new agricultural technologies. Specifically, the objectives include the assessment of i) the profitability of plant-incorporated protectants (PIPS); ii) the potential for regulatory policy to improve the social returns to PIPS; iii) the profitability of information intensive management; and iv) the environmental benefits of information intensive management. For objective i), a manuscript on the profitability of Bt corn was completed and submitted for publication. The manuscript was returned with a request for revisions. These revisions will be completed and the manuscript resubmitted in 2003. In addition to the preparation of this manuscript, two surveys were prepared and administered with additional funding from an USDA/IFAFS grant. One of the purposes of the survey was to evaluate the benefits and costs
to farmer of using Bt corn for European corn borer control and Roundup Ready soybeans for weed control. The surveys also inquired about the interest farmers have in a new variety of Bt corn that will control the corn rootworm. Data entry and initial summary statistics were prepared based on the survey results. These results are now being drafted for extension and peer review publication. With respect to objective ii), one manuscript evaluating regulatory policy for Bt corn was published, while another evaluating compliance incentive mechanisms for Bt corn regulation was accepted. A third evaluating adaptive regulatory policies was submitted and returned for revision. These revisions will be completed in 2003 and the paper will be resubmitted. Survey data was also collected on farmer compliance and compliance costs with Bt corn regulations. This information will be integrated into a biological simulation model in 2003 to obtain a more accurate assessment of the efficacy of regulatory
policy. For objectives iii) and iv), effort was devoted to further improving the empirical models used to evaluate experimental corn nitrogen response data. Models estimated using this data provide the information necessary to evaluate the potential profitability and environmental consequences of using variable rate nitrogen applications. So improving these models will improve the reliability of profitability estimates. Recently, attempts to improve profitability estimates have been made using models that account for spatial correlation. This work has however identified two other important problems: treatment and site dependent spatial correlation. To understand these problems, I developed a conceptual model that explains the reason for these problems and points to additional improvements for existing statistical models. Results of this work were reported at precision agriculture conferences in Bonn, Germany and Minneapolis, MN, as well as in the proceedings publications for these two
conferences. Currently, the models developed are being used to update and improve my previous analysis of variable rate nitrogen applications and prepared for publication.
Impacts
Results obtained under this project are being disseminated to crop consultants, extension educators, farmers, and industry representatives to help farmers make better decisions about the profitability and risk benefits of Bt corn. Results from this project continue to inform the Environmental Protection Agency's policy toward the use and registration of Bt plant-incorporated protectants. Project results will also improve nutrient management increasing farm profitability, while reducing human and environmental exposure to agricultural chemicals.
Publications
- Hurley, Secchi, Babcock, and Hellmich (2002). Managing the Risk of European Corn Borer Resistance to Bt Corn. Environmental and Resource Economics 22:537-558.
- Hurley, Secchi, Babcock, and Hellmich (2002). Managing the Risk of European Corn Borer Resistance to Bt Corn. The Ecnomics of Managing Biotechnologies (T. Swanson, ed.). Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 171-193.
- Hurley, Malzer, and Kilian (2002). A test of within field variation of corn response to nitrogen in central Minnesota. Precision Agriculture: Herausforderung an Integrative Forschung, Entwicklung und Anwendung in der Praxis (eds. A. Werner and A. Jarfe). Kuratorium fur Technik und Bauwesen in der Landwirtschaft e. V. (KTBL), BartningstraBe 49, 64289 Darmstadt. pp. 413-421.
|
Progress 01/01/01 to 12/31/01
Outputs
The purpose of this project is to evaluate the profitability and implications of regulatory policy on the adoption, use, profitability, and environmental impact of new technology. Specifically, the objectives include the assessment of i) the profitability of plant-pesticides; ii) the potential for policy to improve the social returns to plant-pesticides; iii) the profitability of information intensive management; and iv) the environmental benefits of information intensive management. For objective i), a manuscript was prepared on estimating the profitability and risk benefits of Bt corn using field level data from a variety of sources. This manuscript was presented at the annual meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA) and a departmental seminar. The paper has been revised based on comments received from these presentations and will be submitted for peer review publication after January 1, 2002. The results of this work were also presented at
the annual Crop Pest Management Workshop in St. Paul, MN. With respect to objective ii), one manuscript, evaluating regulatory policy for Bt corn, submitted last year for peer review was accepted pending revision. This manuscript has been revised and resubmitted. A second paper, evaluating incentive mechanisms for grower compliance with Bt corn regulatory guidelines, submitted for peer review last year was returned requesting revisions. This paper will be resubmitted once the revision request is satisfied. A third paper looking at more adaptive regulatory policies for Bt corn was prepared; presented at the annual AAEA meetings, biotechnology conference in Ravello, IT, and Heartland Environmental and Resource Economics Workshop in Ames, IA; and submitted for peer review publication. For objectives iii) and iv), estimates of site-specific nitrogen response functions for corn and approximations to these functions using soil test, landscape, and remote sensed information from last year
were used to evaluate the profitability and environmental consequences of variable rate nitrogen applications. The results of this analysis were presented at the annual AAEA meetings. Subsequently, a new statistical model was developed to account for important sources of bias and inefficiency in the original parameter estimates. The new model also allows more a reliable test of within field variation in nitrogen response. Recently obtained estimates using the new model show that there is significant within field variation in corn response to nitrogen. These results are currently being prepared for publication. The results will also be used to obtain a more accurate assessment of the value and environmental consequences of using soil test, landscape, and remote sensed information to guide variable rate nitrogen applications.
Impacts
Results obtained under objective i) are now being disseminated to crop consultants, extension educators, farmers, and industry representatives so they can be used by farmers to make better decisions about the profitability and risk benefits of Bt corn. Results obtained under objectives i) and ii) have and will continue to help guide the Environmental Protection Agency's policy toward the use and registration of Bt plant-pesticides. Results obtained under objectives iii) and iv) will improve nutrient and pesticide management increasing farm profitability and reducing human and environmental exposure to potentially hazardous chemicals.
Publications
- Hurley, T.M., Babcock, B.A., and Hellmich, R.L. 2001. Bt crops and Insect Resistance: An Economic Assessment of Refuges. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 26(1):176-194.
|
Progress 01/01/00 to 12/31/00
Outputs
The purpose of this project is to evaluate the profitability and implications of regulatory policy on the adoption, use, profitability, and environmental impact of new technology. Specifically, the objectives include the assessment of i) the profitability of plant-pesticides; ii) the potential for policy to improve the social returns to plant-pesticides; iii) the profitability of information intensive management; and iv) the environmental benefits of information intensive management. For objective i), corn hybrid field data were used to estimate the relationship between European Corn borer (ECB) tunneling and yield loss. ECB population and tunneling data were used to estimate the relationship between ECB and tunneling. Longitudinal ECB population data were used to estimate the intensity and frequency of ECB infestations across the Midwest. These estimates were combined into a stochastic model for predicting the value of Bt corn. Currently, a description of the
methodology and results are being prepared for publication. In addition, the results will be used to develop educational materials to help producers evaluate the profitability of Bt corn. Accomplishments with respect to objective ii) include the acceptance of a manuscript for publication, preparation of a book chapter, and submission of two manuscripts for publication. Three of the manuscripts evaluate the effect of regulatory policy for Bt corn on farm and registrant profitability, pesticide use, and ECB resistance to Bt. The final manuscript explores mechanisms for improving compliance with regulatory policy. The results of this work are shaping regulatory policy for Bt corn by expanding the set of indicators used to evaluate policy and helping identify how to improve compliance. Two data sets were obtained for objective iii). The first tracks the evolution of a Canada thistle weed infestation over four years (1997-1998) in a certified organic field. The second offers information on
corn response to fertilizer at two locations in Minnesota in 1995. A method for using GPS and GIS is being developed to assess the economic cost of field problem areas and whether it is profitable to invest resources to correct these problems. The Canada thistle data will demonstrate the application of the methodology. The general method will be a new application of information intensive management and means for agricultural firms to improve profitability. The second data set was used to estimate site-specific fertilizer response functions for corn and approximations using soil test, landscape, and other information. These response functions allow variable rate fertilizer equipment to target the most economical areas of the field. By comparing the cost of information to the value of targeted applications, the value of information will be obtained. As part of objective iv), the data will also be used to assess the environmental implications of using yield response functions to guide
fertilizer applications. Identifying more efficient means of fertilizer application will enhance profitability and reduce the footprint of farming on the environment.
Impacts
Fulfillment of the objectives of this project will benefit agricultural firms by showing how and when plant-pesticides and information intensive management can be profitably applied. It has and will continue to provide information that government agencies can use to develop policies that reduce human and environmental exposure to hazardous agricultural chemicals. With more efficient agricultural production and reduced exposure to hazardous chemicals, the public will enjoy a more abundant and safer supply of food and fiber.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
|
|