Progress 07/01/00 to 06/30/06
Outputs
This project had three interrelated objectives. First, it sought to develop better understanding of how community influences incidence of dropout. Second, gaining a broader understanding of how schools influence incidence of dropout. Third, it sought a better understanding of how community and educational change influence incidence of dropout. These objectives were largely met, and findings have been disseminated through academic and nonacademic channels. Moreover, the project led to the compilation of a panel data set that will generate future analyses of school processes, including high school dropout. One achievement was the incorporation of spatial analysis in order to better model and capture the larger influence of community and region. The spatial analysis of high school dropout in Louisiana had several key findings extending our knowledge of the causes of high school dropout. First, spatial regression analysis was used to test whether clusters of high schools in
rural regions exhibited similar rates of dropout. The positive finding indicates a larger regional influence on dropout beyond the characteristics of individual schools. Second, the spatial regression model included measures of school processes not previously included in dropout studies. The findings suggest school disciplinary processes significantly affect dropout incidence. Other work explicitely explored changes in educational attainment, and educational attainment inequality, over time. These studies directly addressed the third objective in several ways. The average educational attainment is related to incidence of high school dropout, and can be more accurately measured. The analysis of change using Census data from 1990 and 2000 demonstrate critical trends affecting human capital in the state, and across the various parishes. This largely descriptive analysis formed a baseline from which policy makers can better interpret changes occuring since the introduction of the No Child
Left Behind Act in 2001. The No Child Left Behind Act increased the amount of data available for analysis, and enabled a more comprehensive study of school performance and improvement, part of which is determined by the dropout rates in Louisiana. Another detailed descriptive analysis of school improvement from 2001 - 2005 showed substantial variation in the capacity of Louisiana schools to meet the new requirements. Research on the consequences of high school dropout proceeded on two levels. First, research comparing long term advantages of returning to obtain a high school credential after dropping out was presented at national conferences, and the subsequent paper is still under review for publication. Second, research on the Louisiana Options/GED Program remains ongoing. While the negative consequences of dropping out of high school have been well documented, much less is known about the potentially positive consequences of obtaining an alternative credential. My studies suggest
some advantage to dropouts who return for a GED or equivalency credentially, but that advantage is mitigated by gender, race, and locality.
Impacts
Hatch Project S-3267 has the potential for substantial social and economic impact. Spatial analysis underscores the importance of location in shaping educational outcomes. Education policy must consider locational factors when attempting to improve performance and reduce dropout. Educators must also consider whether to devote resources to helping dropouts return to obtain GED or equivalent creditials. My analysis, though still in the publication process, suggest there is a benefit to returning to get a GED. Education scholars generally agree that reducing high school dropout will require significant improvement in the entire K-12 system. In the mean time, viable alternatives must be available to current status dropouts. School accountability and No Child Left Behind had a strong influence on K-12 schooling in the United States during this project period. NCLB came with both promises and perils. In 2000, there was widespread agreement that many public schools were
failing to provide their students with a high quality education. Yet, after five years of accountability, education policy makers must learn from timely studies of the concrete school experiences and processes. The lessons learned from detailed descriptive analysis will be essential to forging more realistic expectations for change. It will be particularly important for education policy makers to better understand how factors within control of the school influence school improvement.
Publications
- Schafer, Mark J. and Makiko Hori. 2006. Spatial Dynamics of High School Dropout in Rural Louisiana. Southern Rural Sociology 21:55-79.
- Schafer, Mark J. and Makiko Hori. 2007. School Accountability in Louisiana. LSU AgCenter Bulletin. Recommended for publication in January, 2007.
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Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/05
Outputs
In 2005, progress was made toward three main objectives: (1) explaining variation in high school dropout in Louisiana, (2) exploring the consequences of dropping out of high school, and (3) examining efforts to reduce high school dropouts and provide subsequent educational alternatives for dropouts. One paper, entitled Spatial Dynamics of High School Dropout in Rural Louisiana focused on addressing the first objective. The analysis found clusters of high schools with high and low dropout rates throughout the state, after controlling for school-level factors. The implication is that factors influencing dropout go beyond the school to factors within the larger community. A first paper focusing on rural schools was accepted for publication in Southern Rural Sociology in 2005, and a subsequent paper is in progress that extends the analysis to all high schools, uses updated data, incorporates new dropout measures, and considers how the Pre-GED/Options Program (see below)
has influenced dropout in the past four years. To address the second question, I completed preparation of the paper focusing on the consequences of dropout using a nationally representative sample. Within Louisiana, I explored racial and location differences in educational attainment using the 1990 and 2000 censuses, finding significant gaps between black and white, and between urban and rural, Louisianans. I published my findings on the Content Management System of the Louisiana Ag Center and also in the LSU AgCenter publication, Louisiana Agriculture. The primary implication of this research is that although Louisiana has made some progress toward achieving more educational equity from 1990 to 2000, there is still more work to be done. To address the third objective, I focused attention in 2005 on the Louisiana Pre-GED/Options Program, a new initiative to enable students who repeatedly fail the eighth grade Louisiana Educational Advancement Program (LEAP) test to move into an
alternative program aimed at helping these students acquire a GED and/or a skills certificate. I presented research on the extent of this program and its implication at the annual meeting of the Rural Sociological Society in August 2005. This research finds considerable variation in how districts are handling the students who struggle to break through the eighth grade barrier to high school. The barrier has some positive effects, those who pass the standardized tests are deemed ready for high school, and the expectation is that high school dropout rates will decline. However, students failing the test have a much higher likelihood of dropout, and districts are struggling to find an appropriate place and curriculum for these students.
Impacts
Hatch Project S-3267 has the potential for substantial social and economic impact. First, the spatial and hierarchical analysis underscores the importance of both location and embeddedness in hierarchical structures in shaping educational outcomes. Second, longitudinal analysis of actual returns to subsequent education of a national probability sample of droputs provides new insight into the individual returns to subsequent educational attainment. The GED system deserves critical attention in this regard. Most education scholars agree that reducing high school dropout will require significant improvement in the entire K-12 system. In the mean time, viable alternatives must be available to current status dropouts. Third, school accountability is radically changing the structure of K-12 schooling in the United States, and it comes with both promises and perils. Timely studies of the concrete experiences of disadvantaged, rural schools and districts essential in order
for these areas to get the most out of the potential benefits of school accountability, while providing policy makers with the data they will need to adjust the accountability system in consideration of the real challenges it poses. To avoid the pitfalls of simplistic analysis of complex problems, my project offers a range of approaches which should generate important findings for educators and policy makers to consider in their efforts to increase the high school completion and graduation rates in Louisiana.
Publications
- Schafer, Mark J and Tim Brown. 2005. Human Capital Trends in Louisiana. Louisiana Agriculture 48:12-13.
- Schafer, Mark J and Tim Brown. 2004. Educational Attainment Trends in Louisiana: 1990 - 2000. Louisiana Population Data Center. LPDC Report Series, No. 2. www.lapop.lsu.edu
- Schafer, Mark J. and Tim Brown. 2005. Louisianas Racial Gap in Educational Attainment 1990-2000. Louisiana Population Data Center. LPDC Report Series, No. 4. www.lapop.lsu.edu
- Schafer, Mark J. and Tim Brown. 2005. Three Sources of Inequality in High School Attainment in Louisiana. Posted on the Money and Business section of LSU AgCenter Content Management System. www.agctr.lsu.edu
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Progress 01/01/04 to 12/31/04
Outputs
Hatch Project S-3267 has three interrelated research objectives: (1) To explain variation in high school dropout across Louisiana; (2) to explore the consequences of dropping out; and (3) to examine efforts to reduce dropout rates and provide subsequent educational alternatives for dropouts. In 2004, one paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Rural Sociological Society, entitled the Spatial Analysis of High School Dropout: The Case of Rural Louisiana. This paper was subsequently submitted and accepted for publication in Southern Rural Sociology. The paper used spatial analytical techniques to determine if school effects vary spatially. The findings show a strong spatial effect, indicating strong clustering of school effects and suggesting broader regional influences on high school dropout. A second paper, revised from previous work was submitted for publication. This paper found systematic differences in the returns to GED certification for rural versus
urban high school dropouts. The paper uses data from a national longitudinal survey following 1988 eighth graders over 12 years. On average, returns for a GED resulted in higher 1999 incomes, but less so than returns for a diploma. Moreover, urban dropouts gained more from subsequent GED or diploma completion than rural dropouts, which was partially due to differences in occupational structures. Another paper entitled, Options for High School Dropouts, explores options available to eighth graders who fail the high stakes test (LEAP). The Louisiana education system has initiated programs for these students to work toward an alternative certification (neither a diploma nor a GED) intended to improve their skills and opportunities in the labor market. I organized an important panel discussion on the implications of No Child Left Behind, high stakes testing, and school accountability for rural schools. This panel combined rural sociologists with advocacy groups, state department of
education officials, and teachers to discuss a range of issues with respect to rural schools. One topic of discussion involved the implications for educational achievement among those most at risk for dropout. In 2005 my focus will be on following papers through the publication process while organizing the results of this study into forms appropriate for dissemination to extension employees, policy-makers, lay people, and others within the LSU Agricultural Center system at Louisiana State University and the broader land grant system. I posted results from a comparative study of changes in educational achievement (including High School Completion)across nine regions and 64 parishes, using data from the 1990 and 2000 census on the Louisiana Population Data Center web page. I have worked on a paper to be published in a special issue of Louisiana Agriculture in 2005, focusing on various dimensions of human capital development in Louisiana. I prepared fact sheets on high school dropout,
rural education, and school accountability for dissemination to policy-makers at state-government sponsored conferences on poverty and rural education.
Impacts
Hatch Project S-3267 has the potential for substantial social and economic impact. First, the spatial and hierarchical analysis underscores the importance of both location and embeddedness in hierarchical structures in shaping educational outcomes. Second, longitudinal analysis of actual returns to subsequent education of a national probability sample of droputs provides new insight into the individual returns to subsequent educational attainment. The GED system deserves critical attention in this regard. Most education scholars agree that reducing high school dropout will require significant improvement in the entire K-12 system. In the mean time, viable alternatives must be available to current status dropouts. Third, school accountability is radically changing the structure of K-12 schooling in the United States, and it comes with both promises and perils. Timely studies of the concrete experiences of disadvantaged, rural schools and districts essential in order
for these areas to get the most out of the potential benefits of school accountability, while providing policy makers with the data they will need to adjust the accountability system in consideration of the real challenges it poses. To avoid the pitfalls of simplistic analysis of complex problems, my project offers a range of approaches which should generate important findings for educators and policy makers to consider in their efforts to increase the high school completion and graduation rates in Louisiana.
Publications
- Schafer, Mark J. and Timothy Brown. 2004. Educational Attainment in Louisiana: 1990 - 2000. Louisiana Population Data Center. http://www.lapop.lsu.edu/
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Progress 01/01/03 to 12/31/03
Outputs
Hatch Project S-3267 has three interrelated research objectives: (1) To explain variation in high school dropout across Louisiana; (2) to explore the consequences of dropping out; and (3) to examine efforts to reduce dropout rates and provide subsequent educational alternatives for dropouts. In 2003, I made progress toward each of the above objectives. First, I advanced an analytical technique to explore both spatial and hierarchical determinants of dropouts. Spatial techniques provide novel ways of testing effects of proximity and location. Hierarchical techniques explore embedded relationships such as schools within districts. I presented a poster session at the annual meeting of the Rural Sociological Society on the proposed methodological approach. I prepared two papers for consideration for publication. The first focusing on the methodological approach and the second paper examines both spatial and hierarchical influences on high school dropout in Louisiana. In
addition, I updated the database with 2002 data. Second, I presented at the same meeting in which I compared income and job satisfaction among three groups of high school dropouts: status dropouts, those who returned for a diploma, and those who obtained a GED. The exploratory paper was well received by the audience who made several suggestions for improving and extending the analysis, including refining the analysis to look at occupational type and benefits as well. I presented overall findings, as well as comparisons by gender, race, class, and location (metro versus nonmetro). In Fall 2003, I prepared a paper for submission to scholarly journals based on this analysis. Also in 2003, I obtained a license to access Restricted-Use data in order to link this survey to other school and country level data using census codes. Third, I submitted a funding proposal to study how schools and districts in the Delta Region of Louisiana are responding to the challenges posed by the combination
of state school accountability legislation and the federal No Child Left Behind Act. Part of this research will involve an explicit study of school and district plans to both reduce high school dropout rates in order to meet performance goals, and the extent to which subsequent educational opportunity is being influenced by the broad institutional changes. In addition, I have begun to compile and analyze data on GED testing in Louisiana. My focus in 2004 will be on publishing papers associate with the project and beginning research on the final objective.
Impacts
Hatch Project S-3267 has the potential for substantial social and economic impact. First, the spatial and hierarchical analysis underscores the importance of both location and embeddedness in hierarchical structures in shaping educational outcomes. Second, longitudinal analysis of actual returns to subsequent education of a national probability sample of droputs provides new insight into the individual returns to subsequent educational attainment. The GED system deserves critical attention in this regard. Most education scholars agree that reducing high school dropout will require significant improvement in the entire K-12 system. In the mean time, viable alternatives must be available to current status dropouts. Third, school accountability is radically changing the structure of K-12 schooling in the United States, and it comes with both promises and perils. Timely studies of the concrete experiences of disadvantaged, rural schools and districts essential in order
for these areas to get the most out of the potential benefits of school accountability, while providing policy makers with the data they will need to adjust the accountability system in consideration of the real challenges it poses. To avoid the pitfalls of simplistic analysis of complex problems, my project offers a range approaches which should generate important findings for educators and policy makers to consider in their efforts to increase the high school completion and graduation rates in Louisiana.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/02 to 12/31/02
Outputs
Hatch Project S-3267 entails a five-year research agenda with three interrelated objectives. First, the project examines and attempts to explain variation in high school dropout, completion, and graduation rates, both across and within Louisiana's 66 school districts. Second, the study explores consequences of dropping out for individuals, communities, and society. Third, the study seeks to identify, examine, and compare the relative effectiveness of efforts to (1) improve high school completion over the long term and (2) provide subsequent, quality educational opportunities to dropouts in the short term. In 2002, I gathered data from the Louisiana Department of Education to support multilevel analysis that considers both cross-district and within-district (comparisons across schools within districts) differences in high school dropout and completion. Building upon my 2001 study showing the importance of key district factors, I incorporated measures of within-district
inequities across schools to further explain variation in completion across Louisiana's high schools. The approach has implications for policy; it points to whether district or school-level approaches may more effectively increase completion rates. I will use GIS-mapping to present my findings visually in a poster presentation at the annual meeting of the Rural Sociological Society in July, 2003. In 2003, I plan to submit three papers from this research for consideration for publication. I have begun to focus on consequences of dropping out of school by using a national-level, longitudinal data set. The National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS), surveyed 25,000 eighth graders in 1988, with follow-ups in 1990, 1992, 1994, and 2000. I have focused only on dropouts, comparing 1999 earnings and job satisfaction self-reports across two groups: those who subsequently returned for a high school credential (GED) versus those who did not. My initial findings indicate higher earnings among
males who obtained a GED, but not among females. My paper on this topic has also been accepted for presentation at the Rural Sociological Society annual meeting. In 2003, I will extend my exploration to other potential life consequences of dropping out and conduct similar analysis using Louisiana data. In 2002 I held several conversations with educators concerning specific programs attempting to increase completion rates or to provide quality alternatives for dropouts. My contacts talk of an emerging consensus that increasing high school completion requires systemic changes in the K-12 education system, not simply at the high schools. This view is consistent with longitudinal studies showing a strong relationship between early school experiences and subsequent educational attainment. Since a proportion of current high school students will likely dropout, the demand for subsequent (GED) opportunities should remain high in the short term. Therefore, I am identifying schools and
districts that have been particularly successful at (1) maintaining high levels of high school completion or (2) providing quality subsequent educational opportunity to dropouts.
Impacts
Hatch Project S-3267 has the potential for substantial social and economic impact. A comparative study of district (parish) level factors, including within-district inequities across schools, can both identify geographically "problem areas" and shed light on some of the reasons the comparatively high level of dropouts within the State of Louisiana. The consequences of not completing high school affect not only the life chances of individuals, but also the social life and potential of communities. Educational attainment and the development of human capital may be one of the more important attributes that rural communities can market when competing to attract and keep well-paying jobs in the changing global economy. Finally, to avoid the pitfalls of looking for a single panacea to a multifaceted problem, identifying and elaborating on successful models within the state should offer a range of factors for educators and policy makers to consider when attempting to
increase levels of educational attainment broadly across districts or more narrowly within specific schools.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/01 to 12/31/01
Outputs
In 2001, I compiled a data set combining parish-level data from the 1998 Families at Risk Data Base with school-district data from the Louisiana Department of Education 1997-1998 Progress profiles and District Composite Reports. I used these data to conduct regional comparisons of high school dropout in Louisiana. My paper was accepted for presentation at the annual meeting of the Southern Rural Sociological Society. My project has broadened theoretical conceptualization and methodological treatment of school, community, parish and regional factors influencing dropouts. My study builds on previous studies of community and school influences on individual propensity to dropout, by describing regional variations in parish-level dropout rates, using regional categories such as urban-rural isolation measures, labor-market features, and racial composition. Three specific findings demonstrate the importance of considering larger regional factors. First, I found statistically
significant relationship between regional urban-rural designations and parish-level dropouts: Core metropolitan regions are associated with higher mean dropouts. Also, regional labor market features( e.g. specialized versus differentiated occupational opportunities) are also associated with higher parish-level dropouts rates. Third, among noncore metropolitan areas, black belt parishes exhibit higher overall dropout rates net other factors. I suggest several methodological approaches to incorporating macrostructural conditions into multi-level models where the dependent variable is measured at the individual level. In addition to working with the state-level data, I have made some significant progress on the second phase of the project that involves using national data from the National Education Longitudinal Survey (NELS) to test multi-level models of high school completion and dropout that include data at the individual, family, school, and community levels. I had the opportunity to
discuss the use of this data set with Glenn Isreal (University of Florida) and Lionel "Bo" Beaulieu, two scholars who have made excellent use of the NELS data in exploring the theoretical underpinnings of social capital. I have discussed the possibility of working collaboratively to build upon their research and focus specifically on developing a multilevel approach to the study of high school completion and dropout, thus forging new theoretical and methodological ground. The final phase of the project will design a data collection strategy for collecting information on students, schools, and communities within Louisiana in order to better understand the specific contexts that facilitate or hinder high school completion. Dropout interventions aimed at strengthening family-school relations, for example, may be appropriate in parishes where low family involvement is identified as a possible contributor to high dropout rates. Alternatively, in cases where family-school relationships are
strong and dropouts are more associated with individual performance in early school grades, intervention strategies may focus on determining at risk students based on these early school performance measures.
Impacts
My project has the potential for substantial social and economic impact. High School dropouts have been a pressing and persistent problem in Louisiana. Communities, rural and urban, benefit socially and economically from the higher educational attainment levels of their citizens. Understanding the causes of dropping out is particularly important in todays economy in which a premium is placed on high quality education. Low levels of education may be costing the state jobs and other opportunities in the new global economy.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/00 to 12/31/00
Outputs
This project started in 2000. The initial step involved searching for parish or school-district level data to use in assessing current trends in high school completion and droupout in Louisiana. My data search revealed two CD-ROM's with valuable data. The first, 1998 Families at Risk Data Base, was prepared by the Louisiana Population Data Center using data from the Louisiana Office of Community Services. This data set contains parish-level data on mean incomes, mean family income and education levels, and school related indicators of teachers' salaries, per pupil educational spending, expulsions, suspensions, and dropouts. To this data set I have added information from the, 1997-1998 Louisiana Progress Profiles, District Composite Reports, produced by the Louisiana Department of Education, with additional information on parishes, schools, and students. These data will allow me to conduct a parish-level analysis of community and school factors influencing educational
attainment in Louisiana. Understanding parish-level differences will serve as a springboard for future study of family and indiviual contributions to high school completion and dropout. I will use multilevel modeling to examine famly and individual level factors contribuing to high school completion or dropout, and how these effects vary across diverse communities. The multilevel approach will be a major contribution to the study of dropouts, and suggest appropriate policies for the intervention strategies addressed at different levels. Dropout interventions aimed at strengthen family-school relations, for example may be appropriate in parishes where low family involvement is identified as a possible contributor to high dropout rates. Alternatively, in cases family-school relationships are strong and dropouts are associated with individual performance in early school grades, intervention strategies may focus on determining at risk students based on early school performance measures.
Impacts
My project has the potential for substantial social and economic impact. Dropouts have been a pressing and persistent problem in Louisiana. Louisiana communities, rural and urban, benefit socially and economically from higher educational levels. Understanding the causes of dropping out is of particular importance in today's economy in which a premium is placed on high quality education. Low levels of education may be costing the state jobs and opportunities in the new global economy.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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