Progress 10/01/06 to 09/30/07
Outputs
Cornell's Program on Applied Demographics (PAD) continues to represent New York State in the Census Bureau's Federal State Cooperatives for Population Estimates and Projections. Principal funding for this activity comes from the New York State Department of Economic Development. Principal activities this past year have included review/challenges of the Census Bureau's population estimates 2006, research on county level population projections, and development of address lists to improve coverage in the Census 2010.
Impacts
State and local government rely upon our work for current estimates and future projections of population and basic characteristics. The review of Census Bureau estimates for 2006 uncovered errors for seven counties (Bronx, Jefferson, Kings, New York, Queens, Richmond, and Rockland) and the successful challenges carried out by the county planning departments with our technical assistance resulted in an increase of 40,001 persons.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/04 to 12/31/04
Outputs
Cornell's Institute for Social and Economic Research (CISER) continue to represent New York State in the Census Bureau's Federal State Cooperatives for Population Estimates and Projections. Principal funding for this activity comes from the New York State Department of Economic Development. Principal activities this past year have included review/challenges of the population estimates for 2002 and 2003 prepared by the Census Bureau, development of a georeferenced database of group quarters facilities, and development of data files from administrative records on vital statistics, persons in nursing homes, school enrollments, and residential building permits.
Impacts
State and local government rely upon our work for current estimates and future projections of population and basic characteristics. The review of Census 2000 has uncovered a few dozen errors in the geographic location of major group quarter facilities, affecting federal and state formula grants.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/03 to 12/31/03
Outputs
Cornell's Institute for Social and Economic Research (CISER) continue to represent New York State in the Census Bureau's Federal State Cooperatives for Population Estimates and Projections. Principal funding for this activity comes from the New York State Department of Economic Development. Principal activities this past year have included review/challenges of the population counts in Census 2000, research on county level population projections, and development of population projections for New York City Community Districts. These are available on our website at www.nysis.cornell.edu.
Impacts
State and local government rely upon our work for current estimates and future projections of population and basic characteristics. The review of Census 2000 has uncovered a few dozen errors in the geographic location of major group quarter facilities, affecting federal and state formula grants.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/02 to 12/31/02
Outputs
Cornell's Institute for Social and Economic Research (CISER) continue to represent New York State in the Census Bureau's Federal State Cooperatives for Population Estimates and Projections. Principal funding for this activity comes from the New York State Department of Economic Development. Principal activities this past year have included review/challenges of the population counts in Census 2000 and production of county level population projections. These are available on our website at www.nysis.cornell.edu.
Impacts
State and local government rely upon our work for current estimates and future projections of population and basic characteristics. The review of Census 2000 has uncovered a few dozen errors in the geographic location of major group quarter facilities, affecting federal and state formula grants.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/01 to 12/31/01
Outputs
We have completed a review of our county level population projections against results of Census 2000. A separate report is available detailing the level of errors in projecting total population size, as well as the size of each age and sex cohort. The projections were based on the population counts and characteristics in the 1990 Census, and produced in five-year intervals to 2020. The level of error in total population was acceptable, but the errors in age and sex composition were too great. We have revised our model with respect to the way we handle persons in group quarters and migration. We have increased the level of detail regarding persons in group quarters and are now better able to separate them from the household population. College populations were a large source of error. With respect to migration, we have moved from projecting net migration, to breaking migration into three components: domestic in-migration, domestic out-migration, and migration from
abroad. Initial indications show that this refined approach to migration improves the accuracy of our projections.
Impacts
Extensive use by governmental and non-governmental agencies in New York State for program planning and investment.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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