Source: UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA submitted to NRP
MEASUREMENT OF COMPETITIVENESS OF U.S. BEEF, SOYBEAN, WHEAT, AND CORN PRODUCTION
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
HATCH
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0181767
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
May 1, 2009
Project End Date
Apr 30, 2014
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA
(N/A)
LINCOLN,NE 68583
Performing Department
Agri Economics
Non Technical Summary
The goal of this study is to establish a precise definition of competitiveness within a model of economic behavior and to assess and evaluate the economic impacts of changes in global competitiveness of U.S. agriculture.
Animal Health Component
(N/A)
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
(N/A)
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
6066120301050%
6066110301050%
Knowledge Area
606 - International Trade and Development;

Subject Of Investigation
6110 - Economy of the United States and sectors thereof; 6120 - International economy and sectors thereof;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;
Goals / Objectives
The goal of this study is to establish a precise definition of competitiveness within a model of economic behavior and to assess and evaluate the economic impacts of changes in global competitiveness of U.S. agriculture. Objective 1 Sub-objectives: 1. Infer the relative ability to compete in the long-run in the markets for these commodities. 2. Provide estimates of elasticities of substitution, transformation and input requirement for agricultural inputs and outputs. 3. Provide estimates of own and cross price supply elasticities, own and cross price input demand elasticities and cross price elasticities between inputs and outputs. 4. Calculate Allen, Morishima and shadow elasticities. Objective 2 Sub-objectives: 1. Use time series panel methods to estimate parametrically the technology parameters and the returns to public goods across the continental United States. 2. Estimate these concepts non-parametrically, if possible. 3. Construct complete data sets of aggregate agricultural inputs and outputs for 48 continental states for the period 1950-1997. 4. Explore alternative ways of measuring spillovers. 5. Collect the data needed to calculate spillovers and incorporate them in the estimation. 6. Identify impact of other regions' public goods expenditures on the productivity of each other. Objective 3 Sub-objectives: 1. Include different ways of constructing R&D stocks including cluster analysis and compare results. 2. Endogenize the output variable and R&D stocks. 3. Develop stock measures of agricultural Extension and include in the analysis. 4. Use spatial econometric techniques in estimation and compare with non-spatial. Objective 4 Sub-objectives: 1. Define public bads and incorporate in a theoretical model of the firm. Develop theoretical properties of such commodities. 2. Model choices of the firm. 3. Incorporate public bads into an endogenous growth model of the economy and identify the properties that would allow a steady rate of growth of an economy. 4. Obtain the theoretical relation that allows identification of social costs of public bads. 5. Derive the alternative expressions for elasticity of productivity at various lengths of run when accounting for these bads in addition to the goods produced. Objective 5 Sub-objectives: 1. Show current technology, defined in terms of a cost or production function. 2. Characterize new technology as that resulting from the impact of public bads. 3. Specify the social costs of bads in terms of the parameters of the technology. 4. Derive the different productivity elasticities for given amounts of bads. Show these elasticities in terms of the specific parameters of the technology. 5. Show scale elasticities with and without public bads in terms of the specific technology parameters.
Project Methods
The General Approach: The project will measure comparative technological changes across commodities in an aggregate sectoral multiple-input, multiple-output context. This multiple-commodity perspective is important in a technical change context, because single commodity analysis will miss improvements in technology relative to other commodities, which may be crucially important in determining the net competitiveness for the commodity in question. Measuring the Impact of Public Inputs on Productivity Growth: A dynamic dual model of the firm is used to explain growth based on the existence of public inputs. Measuring the impact of public agricultural R&D, spillins across states, and the private and social rates of return to these investments by state. Empirical Estimation: The project will empirically measure relative rates and biases of technical change for wheat, corn and soybean production in the U.S. using both a non-parametric approach and a parametric approach. Data will consist of aggregate sectoral data from 1950 through 2000. The time series of outputs and inputs for this period of time for the country included in the study will be collected. The non-parametric approach to estimating these technical change parameters is less demanding of data and requires no explicit functional form, but it provides no measures of statistical significance. A parametric distance function was estimated using the method of maximum likelihood and the rate of commodity progress was obtained for beef, corn, wheat, and soybeans in U.S. agriculture. A normalized quadratic cost function will be estimated using the method of maximum likelihood to obtain the parameters that described the technology and the impact of public goods on productivity and competitiveness. This estimation will use panel data for 48 contiguous states. There will be an attempt at estimating rates of return of R&D and infrastructure in U.S. agriculture. This estimation will implement new spatial econometric methods to account for the effects of spillins in a structural as well as in a stochastic way.

Progress 05/01/09 to 04/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience: Academia, domestic and international (National and international research insituties, public and private Universities); government (USDA, EPA, DOE, NOOA) and international agencies (CGIAR, World Bank, IADB, FAO); private institutes and foundations (Farm Foundation, Gates Foundation, AEI, Giannini Foundation); graduate and undergraduate students (MS and PhD theses, honor undergraduate theses, graduate and undergraduate courses taught); publications in professional and outreach journals and presentations at different instututions and at academic conferences. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? A number of MS thesis and PhD dissertations have been developed based on this research. The following students were involved: Alejandro Onofri (PhD); Alejandro Plastina (PhD); Sun Ling Wang (PhD); Binxin Yu (PhD); Juan Sesmero (PhD); Aziza Kibonge (PhD); Diego Alvarez (PhD); Federico Garcia-Suarez (PhD); Tshepelayi Kabata (PhD); Erika Marinez-Picazo (MS); Preeti Bharati (MS); Ayako Ebata (MS); Rui Huang (MS); Federico Trindade (MS); Zahra Tayebi (MS); Ann Hunter-Pirtle (MS); Lisa Pfeiffer (Undergraduate Honors). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Publications in professional journals. Presentation at professional meetings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Countries do not compete in the same way as companies. Competitiveness is our ability to produce goods and services that meet the test of international competition while our citizens enjoy a standard of living that is both rising and sustainable. A country becomes more competitive in the production of a particular commodity when the marginal cost of production shifts down. We develop this measure theoretically, and estimate it econometrically for corn, soybeans, wheat, and beef in the U.S. during 1950-1993. We find that the U.S. has become 6% more competitive in the corn market, 4% in the soybeans market and 1.2% in the wheat market. Results for the beef market are inconclusive.Some recent measurements of agricultural productivity gains in some world regions have indicated a slowdown. This project has shown that in Sub-Saharan Africa, agricultural increased steadily from about 1.1 % annually in the 1970's to about 2.2% annually in the 2000's. Other project activities have studied contributors to productivity and competitiveness, like R&D, extension, and infrastructure spending, policies and regulations, intellectual property rights on GMO crops, colonial history, democratic institutions, health and education investments as well as foreign direct investments. Objective 1."Estimating Griliches' k-shift." American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 82 (1): 86-101. Estimatation of the k-shift or commodity specific rates of technical progress for corn, wheat, soybeans and beef in U.S. agriculture. The radial rate of technical change is estimated at about 1.77 percent per year, lower than that estimated by others using very different approaches and for slightly different time periods. The k-shift for corn is about 5.8 percent, with 3.5 percent for soybeans and 1.3 percent for wheat. This shows that U.S. agriculture has become more competitive in the production of corn, soybeans and wheat."What Comes First, Agricultural Growth or Democracy?" Agricultural Economics, Vol. 41 (1): 15-24. We find that most variables used in the literature to capture the effect of institutions are not independent of the process of growth. Human capital accumulation emerges as an important source of growth. "Pricing and Welfare Impact of New Crop Traits: The Role of IPR's and Coase's Conjecture Revisited." AgBio Forum, Vol.11 (2).This research suggests that sellers holding only plant breeders rights would realize only 11% of potential social welfare benefits from the trait, while farmers and/or downstream consumers would realize about 85%."Explaining the Decline of the Agricultural Sector in Taiwan." Agricultural Economics, Vol. 36, 2-03: 181-190."Accounting for Taiwan's GDP Growth: Parametric and Non-parametric Estimates." Journal of the Chinese Statistical Association, Vol. 45: 74-98.Objective 2.August 2008. "Public Inputs and Dynamic Producer Behavior: Endogenous Growth in U.S. Agriculture." Journal of Productivity Analysis, Vol 30 (1): 13-28. This research is an attempt to understand the impact of public R&D and public infrastructure on the performance of the U.S. agricultural sector. This supports the notion of an important role for public inputs on the rapid and sustained growth of the sector. "Rates of Return to Public Agricultural Research in 48 U.S. States: 1949-1991." Journal of Productivity Analysis, vol. 37(2): 95-113. The internal rate of return to public investment in agricultural R&D is estimated for each of the continental U.S. states. We estimate an average own-state rate of 17% and a social rate of 29% that compare well to the 9% and 12% average returns of the S&P500 and NASDAQ composite indexes.Objective 3."Accounting for the Impacts of Public Research, R&D Spill-ins, Extension, and Roads in U.S. Regional Agricultural Productivity Growth, 1980-2004" chapter 2 in Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An International Perspective, edited by Keith Fuglie, Eldon Ball, and Sun Ling Wang, CABI, 2012. We use state-by-year panel data to estimate the contributions of public research, extension activities, and the transportation network to state agricultural productivity growth rates over the 1980-2004 period."Rates of return to public agricultural research in 48 US States: Sensitivity to Alternative Spill-In Proxies." Journal of Productivity Analysis, under review. Internal rates of return to agricultural research are calculated in each of the continental US states using alternative R&D spill-in proxies. We find that local internal rates of return have declined through time concurrently with investments in extension, while the social rates have not. "Institutions and Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa." Agricultural Economics, 31, 2-3: 169-180. Agricultural productivity in 41 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1960 to 1999 is examined by estimating a semi-nonparametric Fourier production frontier. Over the four decades the estimated rate of productivity change was 0.83% per year, although the average rate from 1985-99 was a strong 1.90% per year."Have Price Policies Damaged LDC Agricultural Productivity?" Contemporary Economic Policy, 17(4):469-475."Agricultural Productivity in Developing Countries.@ Agricultural Economics, 19, 1-2: 45-51."LDC Agriculture: Non-parametric Malmquist Productivity Indexes." Journal of Development Economics, 58: 373-390.Objective 4."Productivity Measurement in the Presence of Poorly Priced Goods." American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 78: 1355-1359. This paper presents a general equilibrium approach to productivity measurement in the presence of market failure. "Technological Change and Welfare in an Open Economy with Distortions." American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 83: 455-464. Here we employ a general equilibrium analysis of an open economy to examine how the consumer welfare gain from a technological change, measured as Hicksian equivalent variation, is related to the rate of technical change, the biases of the technological change, and tax distortions in the economy."Productivity and Welfare." Journal of Productivity Analysis, 49, 2: 133-155. This paper examines the potential discrepancy between this rate and the corresponding rate of consumer welfare change as measured by Allais distributable surplus with various market failures (taxes, quotas, imperfect competition, and "poorly priced" commodities).Objective 5."Agricultural Productivity and Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Land Use Change in Sub-Saharan Africa." Working paper, Dept. of Agricultural Economics, University of Nebraska, Lincoln. This paper is an attempt to calculate the impact of CO2 due to land clearing on TFP measurement in SSA's agriculture. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Efficiency of U.S. Agriculture." Working paper, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nebraska. This paper analyzes greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and efficiency of U.S. agriculture which emits about 6 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. The scope of the study covers the period of 1990-2004 for the 48 contiguous states. Should GHGs be weakly disposable by way of regulation, DE, FL, MA, NH, NJ and RI are likely to bear no cost or the least cost. TX, OK and other major crops and livestock producers are likely to face a higher opportunity cost. "Correcting Productivity Measurement for CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change: Observations from Central America and the Caribbean." Working paper, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nebraska. "Health and Growth: Causality through Education." China Agricultural Economic Review, 2 (3). We show that HIV/AIDS has resulted in a substantial decline in life expectancy in African countries associated with lower educational attainment and slower economic growth."Taiwanese Industry Competitiveness when Outward FDI is Defensive." Journal of Asian Economics, 21(4):365-377.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Plastina, A. and L.E. Fulginiti. 2012. Rates of Return to Public Agricultural Research in 48 U.S. States: 1949-1991. Journal of Productivity Analysis, vol. 37(2): 95-113.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Sun, L., L. E. Fulginiti and Y. Chen. 2010. Taiwanese Industry Competitiveness when Outward FDI is Defensive. Journal of Asian Economics, 21(4):365-377.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Huang, R., L. E. Fulginiti and E. W. Peterson. 2010.Health and Growth: Causality through Education. China Agricultural Economic Review, 2 (3).
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Fulginiti, L. E. 2010. Estimating Griliches k-shift. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 82 (1): 86-101.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Fulginiti, L. E. 2010. What Comes First, Agricultural Growth or Democracy? Agricultural Economics, Vol. 41 (1): 15-24.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2009 Citation: Perrin, R. K and L. E. Fulginiti. January 2009. Pricing and Welfare Impact of New Crop Traits: The Role of IPRs and Coases Conjecture Revisited. AgBio Forum, Vol.11 (2) Article 7
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Tong, H., L. E. Fulginiti, and J. Sesmero. 2012. Agricultural Productivity in China: National and Regional Growth Patterns, 1993-2005, chapter 9 in Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An International Perspective, edited by Keith Fuglie, Eldon Ball, and Sun Ling Wang, CABI, 2012.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Wang, S.L., E. Ball, L. Fulginiti, and A. Plastina. 2012. Accounting for the Impacts of Public Research, R&D Spill-ins, Extension, and Roads in U.S. Regional Agricultural Productivity Growth, 1980-2004 chapter 2 in Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An International Perspective, edited by Keith Fuglie, Eldon Ball, and Sun Ling Wang, CABI, 2012.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Sesmero, J. P., Perrin, R. K., and Fulginiti, L. 2012 Environmental Efficiency Among Corn Ethanol Plants. Biomass and Bioenergy Journal, vol. 46(November): 634-644.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2009 Citation: Sun, L. W., E. Ball, L. E. Fulginiti and A. Plastina. July 2009. Impact of Local Public Goods in Agricultural Productivity Growth in the U.S. Presented at the AAEA meetings, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/49333
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2009 Citation: Sesmero, J. P., R. K. Perrin and L. E. Fulginiti. July 2009. Efficiency of New Ethanol Plants in the U.S. North-Central Region. Presented at the AAEA meetings, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/49438
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2009 Citation: Huang, R., L. E. Fulginiti and E. W. Peterson. 2009. Health and Growth: Causality through Education. Proceedings of the 27th International Conference of Agricultural Economists, Beijing, China. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/51735
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2009 Citation: Tong, H., L. E. Fulginiti and J. P. Sesmero. 2009. Chinese Regional Agricultural Productivity: 1994-2005. Proceedings of the 27th International Conference of Agricultural Economists, Beijing, China, Vol.1. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/51784
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2009 Citation: Plastina, A. and L. E. Fulginiti. 2009. Rates of Return to Agricultural Research in 48 U.S. States. Proceedings of the 27th International Conference of Agricultural Economists, Beijing, China, Vol.1. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/51709
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Fulginiti, L.E. and R.K. Perrin. 2010. Agricultural Productivity in Developing Countries: The World Food Equation and Food Security, Water for Food: Growing More with Less, second annual international conference, Lincoln NE, May 2-5. http://waterforfood.nebraska.edu/2010/video.php?ID=7b
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Sesmero, J.P., and L. E. Fulginiti. 2010. An Implementable Index of Sustainability and Assessment of Energy Policy. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Denver, July 25-27. http://purl.umn.edu/61637
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Sun, L.W., E. Ball, L. E. Fulginiti and A. Plastina. 2010. Impact of Local Public Goods in Agricultural Productivity in the U.S. Causes and Consequences of Global Agricultural Productivity Growth Washington D.C., May 11-12. http://www.farmfoundation.org/webcontent/Global-Agricultural-Productivity-Growth-1725.aspx?a=1725&z=90&
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Tong, H., L. E. Fulginiti and J. P. Sesmero. 2010 Chinese Regional Agricultural Productivity: 20 years after. Causes and Consequences of Global Agricultural Productivity Growth Washington D.C., May 11-12. http://www.farmfoundation.org/webcontent/Global-Agricultural-Productivity-Growth-1725.aspx?a=1725&z=90&
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Sesmero, J.P., R.K. Perrin, and L.E. Fulginiti. 2010. Economic Efficiency of Ethanol Plants in the US North Central Region. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Denver, July 25-27. http://purl.umn.edu/61639
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Sesmero, J.P., R.K. Perrin, and L.E. Fulginiti. 2010. Environmental Efficiency Among Corn Ethanol Plants. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Denver, July 25-27. http://purl.umn.edu/61650
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2011 Citation: Fulginiti, L.E. Is Agricultural Productivity Slowing Down? October 2011. Presented at the Heartland Transatlantic Conference, NE Department of State, NE Legislature, Lincoln, NE.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Fulginiti, L.E. Agricultural Productivity in Developing Countries. Presented at the Workshop on Agricultural Productivity Growth and Poverty Reduction; 28th International Conference of Agricultural Economists, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguassu, Brazil.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Sesmero, J. and L. Fulginiti. 2010. An Implementable Index of Sustainability and Assessment of Energy Policy. Selected poster at the 2010 Annual Meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Denver, CO, July 2010.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Kibonge, A. and L. Fulginiti. 2010. Institutions and Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Revisited. Paper presented at the Joint Annual Meeting AAEA & NAREA, Denver CO 25-27 July.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2011 Citation: Kibonge, A. and L. E. Fulginiti. 2011. Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa, Climate Change and Water Scarcity. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Pittsburgh, July 26-28.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2011 Citation: Kabata, T. and L. Fulginiti. 2011. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the US Agricultural Environmental Performance. Selected paper for presentation at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association-Natural Resources and Environmental Economics Association Joint Annual Meeting in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA in August 2011.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2011 Citation: Trindade, F., L.E. Fulginiti and R. K. Perrin. 2011. Impact of Climate on Agricultural Productivity in the U.S. Great Plains. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Pittsburgh, July 26-28.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2011 Citation: Lakoh, K. and L.E. Fulginiti. 2011. Measuring Crop Residue Harvest Potential: Implications for 2nd Generation Biofuels and Carbon Sequestration in the Great Plains. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Pittsburgh, July 26-28.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Wamisho, K., R. Perrin and L. Fulginiti. 2012. The Shadow Price of GHG Reduction in Corn Ethanol Plants. Paper presented at AAEA annual meeting, Seattle WA, August 12-14.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Kabata, T. and L. Fulginiti. 2012. Accounting for Greenhouse Gases Emissions in OECD Agriculture Productivity. Poster selected for presentation at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association-Natural Resources and Environmental Economics Association Joint Annual Meeting in Seattle, Washington, USA in August 2012.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Kibonge, A. and L. Fulginiti. 2012. Water Scarcity, Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Paper presented at the AAEA annual meeting, Seattle WA, 12-14 August
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Kibonge, A. and L. Fulginiti. 2012. CO2 emissions Due to Land Use Change and Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Paper presented at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting, Seattle WA, 12-14 August.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Sesmero, J., R. Perrin and L. Fulginiti. 2012. Environmental Impacts of Stover Removal in the Corn Belt. Selected paper at the 2012 Annual Meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Seattle, WA, August 2012.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Sesmero, J., R. Perrin and L. Fulginiti. 2012. Technology, Markets, and Ethanol Shutdown Price. Selected paper at the 2012 Annual Meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Seattle, WA, August 2012.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Megeressa, D., R. Perrin and L. Fulginiti Impact of Biofuel Demand on Acreage Allocation in Nebraska. Poster presented at the Annual Agricultural & Applied Economic Association meeting, Washington, DC, August 4-6, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Kabata, T. and L. Fulginiti. 2013. Parametric Distance Function to Efficiency Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in U.S. Agriculture. Poster presented at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association-Natural Resources and Canadian Agricultural Economics Society Joint Annual Meeting in Washington DC, USA in August 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Kibonge, A. and L. Fulginiti. 2014. Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: Water Scarcity, Moisture, and Temperature Effects. Presented at the AAEA meeting, Minneapolis, MN., July 2014.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Trindade, F. and L. Fulginiti. 2013. Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity. Presented at the AAEA meeting, Washington D.C., July 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Trindade, F. and L. Fulginiti. 2014. Effect of irrigation on agricultural productivity. Presented at the AAEA meeting, Minneapolis, MN., July 2014.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Kibonge, A. and L. Fulginiti. 2014. CO2 Emissions from Deforestation and Efficiency in Agricultural Productivity: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa. Presented at the AAEA meeting, Minneapolis, MN., July 2014.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Sesmero, J. P. and L. E. Fulginiti. June 2010. An Implementable Index of Sustainability. World Conference of Environmental and Resource Economists, Montreal, Canada. http://www.wcere2010.org/
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2011 Citation: Ebata, A. and L.E. Fulginiti. 2011. CO2 Emissions and Productivity Measurement in Central America and the Caribbean. Poster presented at ICABR, Frascati, Italy, June 2011.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2011 Citation: Lakoh, K. and L.E. Fulginiti. 2011. Measuring Crop Residue Harvest Potential: Implications for 2nd Generation Biofuels and Carbon Sequestration in the Great Plains. EWEPA, Verona, Italy, June 2011.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Rubin, E., R. Perrin and L. Fulginiti. 2012. Modeling of the High Plains Aquifer. Presented at the International Conference for Agricultural Economists, Foz do Igua�u, Brazil, August 2012.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Ebata, A. and L. Fulginiti. 2012. CO2-Adjusted productivity analysis in Central America and the Caribean. Presented at the International Conference for Agricultural Economists, Foz do Igua�u, Brazil, August 2012.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Kabata, T. and L. Fulginiti. 2012. Accounting for Greenhouse Gases Emissions in OECD Agriculture Productivity. Presented at the 10th International Conference on Data Envelopment Analysis in Natal, Brazil August 27-30 2012.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Trindade, F. and L. Fulginiti. 2012. Is there a Slowdown in Agricultural Productivity Growth in South America? Presented (poster) in IAAE meetings, Foz do Igua�u, Brazil, August 2012; working paper, Department of Agricultural Economics, November 2011.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Megeressa, D. and L. Fulginiti. 2013. Technological Change and Productivity Analysis in the Great Plains States. Presented at the 13th European Workshop on Efficiency and Productivity Analysis, Aalto University School of Business, Helsinki, Finland, June 17- 21, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Kabata, T. and L. Fulginiti. 2013. Accounting for Water Pollution in US Agricultural Productivity a Parametric Approach. Presented at XIIIth European Workshop on Efficiency and Productivity Analysis in Helsinki, Finland, June 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Trindade, F. and L. Fulginiti. 2013.Agricultural production and Ecosystem services. Presented at the WAEA meetings, Monterrey, California, July 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Sesmero, J.P. and L. E. Fulginiti, November 2010. Energy Policy Assessment: Bias of Technical Change and Sustainable Consumption under Exhaustible Resource Constraints. Presented at the Heartland Environmental and Resource Economics Workshop, U of Illinois, Champain-Urbana, Illinois. http://events.idtg.illinois.edu/here/
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Sesmero, Juan P. PhD. 2010. Essays on Equity Efficiency Trade-Offs in Energy and Climate Policies.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2011 Citation: Ebata, Ayako. MS. 2011. Agricultural Productivity Growth in Central America and the Caribbean.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Kibonge, Aziza. PhD. 2012. Essays on Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Lakoh, Kepifri. PhD. 2012. Three Essays on Renewable Energy.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Kabata, Tshepelayi. PhD. 2013. Essays on Environmental Performance of the Agricultural Sector.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Garcia-Suarez, Federico. PhD. 2013. Essays on the Economic Value of the High Plains Aquifer.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Alvarez, Diego. PhD. 2013. Essays on the Efficiency of Electricity Generation in Nebraska.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Bharati, Preeti. MS. 2013. Is Agricultural Productivity in the MERCOSUR really Declining?
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2010 Citation: Sesmero, J. 2010.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Rubin, Ed. MS. 2013. Irrigation and Climatic Effects on Water Levels in the U.S. High Plains Aquifer Along the 41st Parallel in Nebraska.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Tayebi, Zahra. MS. 2014. Agricultural Productivity in the Greater Middle East.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Hunter-Pirtle, Ann. MS. 2014. Economic Impacts of Increased Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards.


Progress 10/01/12 to 09/30/13

Outputs
Target Audience: Scientific, academic,legislators and policy makers. USDA Policy Briefs used by USDA administrators in Congress on discussions on Farm Bill and allocation of public budget to agricultural research, including ERS and NIFA allocations. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? OUTPUTS: Models developed and applied to different sets of data. Studies written describing theory and application and disseminated to academic audience through presentations at professional meetings, seminars, and papers sent for review and publication in books and peer reviewed journals. Presentations to USDA and Congress. PARTICIPANTS: USDA ERS Dr. Sun Ling Wang Dr. Eldon Ball International Cotton Advisory Committee Dr. Alejandro Plastina TARGET AUDIENCES: Scientific, academic,legislators and policy makers. USDA Policy Briefs used by USDA administrators in Congress on discussions on Farm Bill and allocation of public budget to agricultural research, including ERS and NIFA allocations. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Dissemination through publications (journals, books, and newsletters) and through presentations. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Examined the role of public R&D expenditures, R&D spill-ins, extension activities, and road infrastructure in US agricultural productivity growth 1980-2004. Explained the heterogeneity in agricultural in agricultural productivity growth among US states and USDA production regions. Estimated the impact of public research investments on US agricultural productivity growth using a dual cost function and state-by-year panel data. Then evaluated the differential impacts of extension activities and road infrastructure on R&D's contribution to productivity growth. We examined the interaction between local R&D stock and research spill-ins, extension services, and road infrastructure across regions and states. We compared results from models with and without the extension and infrastructure variables in order to assess the impact of these variables on estimates of the rate of return to investment in research. The statistical significance of the R&D interactive terms with extension activities, road density and R&D spill-ins indicate that these efficiency variables play an important role in enhancing the utilization and dissemination of local R&D. amplify the benefits of public research expenditures through the multiplier effect. The distributions of the rates of return show a wider interquartile ranges when the impacts of the efficiency variables are included. This suggests that returns to research are not only conditional on each state's natural resource endowment, but also might be affected by its public infrastructure, its extension activities and its neighbour's research investment. The internal rate of return to public R&D is utilized to evaluate the contribution of research expenditures to productivity growth, as well as derive local and social rates of return. Public R&D's contribution to the reduction in cost declines when other factors are considered. The estimated local rates of return are around 13%, whereas the social rates of return are around 45%. Use of the model with extension activities and road density allows capture of the heterogeneity across states.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Wang, S.L., E. Ball, L. Fulginiti, and A. Plastina. 2012. Agriculture Productivity Growth in the United States, manuscript under review in professional journal.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Tong, H., L. E. Fulginiti, and J. Sesmero. 2012. Agricultural Productivity in China: National and Regional Growth Patterns, 1993-2005, chapter 9 in Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An International Perspective, edited by Keith Fuglie, Eldon Ball, and Sun Ling Wang, CABI, 2012.


Progress 10/01/11 to 09/30/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Models developed and applied to different sets of data. Studies written describing theory and application and disseminated to academic audience through presentations at professional meetings, seminars, and papers sent for review and publication in books and peer reviewed journals. Presentations to USDA and Congress. PARTICIPANTS: USDA ERS Dr. Sun Ling Wang Dr. Eldon Ball International Cotton Advisory Committee Dr. Alejandro Plastina TARGET AUDIENCES: Scientific, academic,legislators and policy makers. USDA Policy Briefs used by USDA administrators in Congress on discussions on Farm Bill and allocation of public budget to agricultural research, including ERS and NIFA allocations. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
Examined the role of public R&D expenditures, R&D spill-ins, extension activities, and road infrastructure in US agricultural productivity growth 1980-2004. Explained the heterogeneity in agricultural in agricultural productivity growth among US states and USDA production regions. Estimated the impact of public research investments on US agricultural productivity growth using a dual cost function and state-by-year panel data. Then evaluated the differential impacts of extension activities and road infrastructure on R&D's contribution to productivity growth. We examined the interaction between local R&D stock and research spill-ins, extension services, and road infrastructure across regions and states. We compared results from models with and without the extension and infrastructure variables in order to assess the impact of these variables on estimates of the rate of return to investment in research. The statistical significance of the R&D interactive terms with extension activities, road density and R&D spill-ins indicate that these efficiency variables play an important role in enhancing the utilization and dissemination of local R&D. amplify the benefits of public research expenditures through the multiplier effect. The distributions of the rates of return show a wider interquartile ranges when the impacts of the efficiency variables are included. This suggests that returns to research are not only conditional on each state's natural resource endowment, but also might be affected by its public infrastructure, its extension activities and its neighbour's research investment. The internal rate of return to public R&D is utilized to evaluate the contribution of research expenditures to productivity growth, as well as derive local and social rates of return. Public R&D's contribution to the reduction in cost declines when other factors are considered. The estimated local rates of return are around 13%, whereas the social rates of return are around 45%. Use of the model with extension activities and road density allows capture of the heterogeneity across states.

Publications

  • Wang, S.L., E. Ball, L. Fulginiti, and A. Plastina. 2012. Accounting for the Impacts of Public Research, R&D Spill-ins, Extension, and Roads, 1980-2004 chapter 2 in Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An International Perspective, edited by Keith Fuglie, Eldon Ball, and Sun Ling Wang, CABI, 2012.
  • Wang, S.L., E. Ball, L. Fulginiti, and A. Plastina. 2012. Agriculture Productivity Growth in the United States, manuscript under review in professional journal.
  • Wang, Sun Ling & Ball, V. Eldon & Fulginiti, Lilyan E. & Plastina, Alejandro S., 2012. Benefits of Public R&D in US Agriculture: Spill-Ins, Extension, and Roads, 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126368, International Association of Agricultural Economists.


Progress 10/01/10 to 09/30/11

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Models developed and applied to different sets of data. Studies written describing theory and application and disseminated to academic audience through presentations at professional meetings, seminars, and papers sent for review and publication in peer reviewed journals. PARTICIPANTS: USDA ERS Dr. Sun Ling Wang Dr. Eldon Ball International Cotton Advisory Committee Dr. Alejandro Plastina TARGET AUDIENCES: Scientific and academic. Legislators and policy makers. USDA Policy Brief used in Congress on discussions on Farm Bill and allocation of public budget to agricultural research, including ERS and NIFA allocations. Heisey, P., S. L. Wang, and K. Fuglie. 2011. "Public Agricultural Research Spending and Future U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth: Scenarios for 2010-2050," Economic Brief No 17, ERS, USDA. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
1)Estimate of Extension impacts on US agriculture reveal importance; 2) In addition to own impacts of Extension, the interaction between Extension and R&D in US agriculture has been positive and important, increasing impact of R&D expenditures; 3)Extension and R&D shown strong complementarity; 4) Calculations of spill ins across states from extension in addition to R&D; 5) Estimation of impact of road density, another public good, on agricultural productivity obtained; 6) Estimation of the interaction of roads and R&D and roads and Extension; 7) Alternative methods for calculating spill ins developed: USDA production regions, geographic distance, similarity of production mix, and correlation in outputs produced; 8)Traditional approach, based on USDA production regions, not best; 9) Internal rates of return calculated for each of the 48 US states; 10) Own and social rates of return estimated; 11) We find high own rates of return (10-30%); 12) Rates robust across spill in proxies; 13) We find high social rates of return (10-50%), 14) the highest estimated when using the most popular approach, USDA production regions; 15) The highest the extension expenditures the higher the rates of return on public U.S. R&D.; 16) Econometric model used to forecast impact of alternative public investments allocations to agricultural research by U.S. Congress to 2050.

Publications

  • Wang, S.L., E. Ball, L. Fulginiti, and A. Plastina. 2012. Accounting for the Impacts of Public Research, R&D Spill-ins, Extension, and Roads in U.S. Regional Agricultural Productivity Growth, 1980-2004 chapter 2 in Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An International Perspective, edited by Keith Fuglie, Eldon Ball, and Sun Ling Wang, CABI, 2012.
  • Wang, S.L., E. Ball, L. Fulginiti, and A. Plastina. 2012. Benefits of Public R&D in U.S. Agriculture: Spill-ins, Extension, and Roads, manuscript under review in professional journal.
  • Heisey, P., S. L. Wang, and K. Fuglie. 2011. Public Agricultural Research Spending and Future U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth: Scenarios for 2010-2050, Economic Brief No 17, ERS, USDA.


Progress 10/01/09 to 09/30/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Models developed and applied to different sets of data. Studies written describing theory and application and disseminated to academic audience through presentations at professional meetings, seminars, and papers sent for review and publication in peer reviewed journals. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
1) Alternative methods for calculating public ag. research spillins developed; 2) Impact depends on spill in proxies; 3) Data set updated for agriculture in all 48 US states to 2008; 4)Agricultural extension expenditures included in analysis; 5) Methods for capturing spillins due to extension incorporated; 6) Transportation network included in analysis; 7) studies of agricultural productivity in developing countries (Sub-Saharan Africa, China, Latin America) performed; 8) Data set for these countries updated ; 9) Test of hypothesis slowdown of ag productivity in these countries rejected; 10) Study is to examine the links between outward FDI and the competitiveness of industries; 11)Emphasis on the difference between defensive versus expansionary outward FDI; 12) Construction of data set for this study including 15 industries, 1991-2001; 13) Hypothesis test on foreign direct investments from Taiwan to China; 14) outward FDI of the defensive type, has had a significant negative influence on productivity and competitiveness.

Publications

  • Sun, L., L. E. Fulginiti and Y. Chen. 2010. Taiwanese Industry Competitiveness when Outward FDI is Defensive. Journal of Asian Economics, 21(4):365-377.
  • Huang, R., L. E. Fulginiti and E. W. Peterson. 2010.Health and Growth: Causality through Education. China Agricultural Economic Review, 2 (3).
  • Fulginiti, L. E. 2010. Estimating Griliches k-shift. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 82 (1): 86-101.
  • Fulginiti, L. E. 2010. What Comes First, Agricultural Growth or Democracy Agricultural Economics, Vol. 41 (1): 15-24.


Progress 10/01/08 to 09/30/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Models developed and applied to different sets of data. Studies written describing theory and application and disseminated to academic audience through presentations at professional meetings, seminars, and papers sent for review and publication in peer reviewed journals. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
1) Rate of productivity change in U.S. agriculture during the period 1950-1993 estimated at 1.77% 2) Rate of commodity progress for corn estimated at 5.8%, for soybeans at 3.5% and for wheat at 1.3%, indicating relative increases in competitiveness. 3) No evidence of need for a democratic government as pre-requisite for agricultural productivity growth. 4) Strong evidence of importance of human capital (schooling) as a pre-requisite for economic and political growth. 5) Strong evidence that investments in health capital are important for economic growth. 6) Evidence that diseases like HIV/AIDS have a long lasting effect on growth due to reductions in life expectancy that affect investments in human capital formation negatively. 7) Crop traits are durable when embedded in varieties affecting the potential of seed companies to recover their development investments. We show that in a plausible circumstance in much of the world, the case of sellers with plant breeders' rights, buyers with foresight, and sellers unable to commit to future price paths, sellers would realize only 11% of potential social welfare benefits from the trait, while farmers and/or downstream consumers would realize about 85%.

Publications

  • Fulginiti, L.E., What comes first, agricultural growth or democracy Agricultural Economics, in press, 2009.
  • Fulginiti, L.E., Estimating Griliches k-shift, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, in press, 2009.
  • Huang, R., L.E. Fulginiti and E. W. Peterson, Health and Growth: Causality through Education, China Agricultural Economic Review, in press, 2009.
  • Perrin , R. K, and L. E. Fulginiti, Pricing and Welfare Impact of New Crop Traits: The Role of IPR s and Coase s Conjecture Revisited, AgBio Forum, Volume 11 (2) Article 7, January 2009.


Progress 10/01/07 to 09/30/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: After collection of data and construction of spill in variables a model was developed, using spatial econometrics to estimate of rates of return of agricultural R&D for each of 48 U.S. states. The internal rate of return (IRR) to public investment in agricultural R&D is estimated for each of the continental U.S. states. Theoretically, our contribution provides a way of obtaining the returns to a local public good using Rothbart's concept of virtual prices. Empirically, we use the spatial dependency among states generated by knowledge spillovers to define the appropriate jurisdiction. We estimate an average own-state rate of 17% and a social rate of 29%. These returns are higher than the returns of the S&P500 and NASDAQ index during the same period. These figures should inform the policy debate on the allocation of federal funds to research in the actual food crisis environment. We provide a distribution across states of these rates of return. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
This is the first study that incorporates spillins across all U.S. states to calculate returns to Agricultural Experiment Station funds. We obtained rates for each Agricultural Experiment Station in the U.S. It provides a constrast between internal rates of return calculated with and without consideration of this effect. We find out that when we correctly model the spills the rates of return to this investment of public monies is lower than when we do not model the spills. Still the rates of return are impressive as they are higher than the average return in the stock market during this period. This indicates that these pulbic monies have been well spent. These results should inform the debate on allocation of public funds to public agricultural research in a year when these funds are being cut.

Publications

  • Onofri, A. and L.E. Fulginiti. Public Inputs and Dynamic Producer Behavior: Endogenous Growth in U.S. Agriculture Journal of Productivity Analysis, Vol 30 (1), August 2008: 13-28. Onofri, A. and L.E. Fulginiti, Rejoinder,Journal of Productivity Analysis, Vol 30 (1), August 2008: 81-85. Sesmero, J. P., and L.E. Fulginti, Conservation Needs Assessment: Sustainability with Substitution and Biased Technical Change, Research in Agricultural and Applied Economics, AgEcon Search, May 2008. Rui Huang, Lilyan E. Fulginiti and E. Wesley Peterson. Investing in Hope: AIDS, Life Expectancy, and Human Capital Accumulation, Working Paper MS #1046, Department of Agricultural Economics, UNL Digital Commons, 2008.


Progress 10/01/06 to 09/30/07

Outputs
Develop data set of inputs and outputs in agriculture for 48 U.S. states. Develop measure of stock of agricultural R&D for 48 U.S. states. Develop model to estimate internal rates of return for public agricultural investments in 48 U.S. states. Model spillins in agricultural R&D and construct proxy variables. Estimate returns to agricultural R&D in U.S. incrporating dynamic effects. Develop data set and model to analyze poverty in Nebraska at the census tract level. Develop data set of inputs and outputs for measurement of agricultural productivity in Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay.

Impacts
We found out that for aggregate U.S. data used in other studies, maximum likelihood estimates do not conform to the regularity and behavioral properties of the economic model rendering them unusable for testing these hypotheses. Bayesian estimates, although not totally satisfactory, do not reject the hypotheses after prior imposition of some of the regularity conditions. This supports the notion of an important role for public inputs on the rapid and sustained growth of the sector. We calculate that, on average, one additional dollar spent on public R&D stock in U.S. agriculture reduces private cost by $6.5.This represents an incredible return to public monies invested in the land grand system and the experiment stations. We revisit earlier estimates of agricultural productivity in original Mercosur member countries and later associates: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela, for 1972-2002. We estimate a translog frontier production function and revise our earlier estimates as well as those of others that indicated declining agricultural productivity. We find that the average rate for the region was a strong 2.25 percent. All the member countries experienced positive agricultural productivity growth for the sample period with Brazil being the fastest gainer. Institutions such as investments in public health and in public agricultural R&D, as well as an economic environment conducive to trade with the rest of the world are associated to differential performance across countries. These rates of productivity growth are indicative of the increase in international competitiveness of these countries. As these rates are higher than the ones estimated for the US agricultural sector they indicate an erosion of the competitiveness of US agriculture and a need to sustain it through increased support of agricultural R&D.

Publications

  • Sun, L., and L.E. Fulginiti, Accounting for Taiwan s GDP Growth: Parametric and Non-parametric Estimates, Journal of the Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 45 (2007): 74-98.
  • Sun, L., L.E. Fulginiti, and E.W. Peterson, Explaining the Decline of the Agricultural Sector in Taiwan, Agricultural Economics, vol. 36(2007), 2-03: 181-190.
  • Onofri, A. and L.E. Fulginiti, Public Inputs and Dynamic Producer Behavior: Endogenous Growth in U.S. Agriculture, forhtcoming in Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2008.
  • Bharati, P. and L. E. Fulginiti, Institutions and Agricultural Productivity in Mercosur, chapter 5 in Institutions and Economic Development, E. C. Teixeira and M. J. Braga, eds., 2007, pp. 139-170.
  • Perrin, R. K. and L. E. Fulginiti, Intellectual Property Institutions for Plant Breeding, chapter 6 in Institutions and Economic Development, E. C. Teixeira and M. J. Braga, eds., 2007, pp. 171-192.


Progress 10/01/05 to 09/30/06

Outputs
Collection of data on the Taiwanese economy was performed with the objective of understanding the impact of the terms of trade, the capital/labor ratio, and technological advances on the development of the agricultural sector during the last 50 years. The agricultural sector shrank during this period, from 60 percent of GDP to 10 percent. It is the common path found as countries develop. The Taiwanese economy serves as a case study as this evolution took only 50 years. It allows testing the premises of the Rybczynski Theorem and of a Heckscher-Ohlin type model.

Impacts
We develop an empirical model to decompose the evolution of the agricultural share of GDP into three components: price changes, factor endowment changes and technological change. Our results suggest that relative prices have a positive but small influence on the share of agriculture in GDP in both the long-run and the short-run. An increase in capital per unit of labor, on the other hand, is associated with a smaller agricultural share. Technical change has been biased in favor of the agricultural sector but this effect has been swamped by the magnitude of the input effects, in particular, the changes in the capital-labor ratio. Relative prices have a positive but small influence on the share of agriculture in GDP in both the long-run and the short-run. A decline in the relative price of agricultural products is associated with a decline in the share of agriculture in GDP, other things equal. An increase in capital per unit of labor, on the other hand, is associated with a smaller agricultural share. This result is consistent with the Rybczynski Theorem, since agriculture is relatively labor intensive. Technical change has been biased in favor of the agricultural sector but this effect has been swamped by the magnitude of the input effects, in particular, the changes in the capital-labor ratio. The strong negative impact of the change in factor endowments seems to have dominated any possible positive effect of relative prices and technical change. This result makes a case for a Heckscher-Ohlin type model as a basis of understanding the development of the Taiwanese economy.

Publications

  • Sun, L., L.E. Fulginiti, and E.W. Peterson, 2006, 'Explaining the Decline of the Agricultural Sector in Taiwan,' Agricultural Economics, in press.
  • Sun, L., and L.E. Fulginiti, 2006, 'Accounting for Taiwan's GDP Growth: Parametric and Nonparametric Estimates,' Journal of the Chinese Statistical Association, in press.


Progress 10/01/04 to 09/30/05

Outputs
Aggregates of inputs and outputs for the agricultural sector of 48 U.S. states are obtained. Stocks of public R&D by state are constructed along with spillin variables by region.

Impacts
Agricultural productivity in 41 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1960 to 1999 is examined by estimating a semi-nonparametric Fourier production frontier. Over the four decades the estimated rate of productivity change was 0.83% per year, although the average rate from 1985-99 was a strong 1.90% per year. Former UK colonies exhibited significantly higher productivity gains than others, while Liberia and countries that had been colonies of Portugal or Belgium exhibited net reductions in productivity. We measure a significant reduction in productivity during political conflicts and wars, and a significant increase in productivity among those countries with a measure of political rights and civil liberties.

Publications

  • Fulginiti, L.E., R.K. Perrin, and B. Yu. "Institutions and Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa," Agricultural Economics, 31, 2-3(December 2004): 169-180.
  • Perrin, R.K. and L.E. Fulginiti, "Dynamic Pricing of Genetically Modified Crop Traits," in The Governance of Agricultural Biotechnology, R.E. Evenson and V. Santaniello, eds., CABI Publishing,UK, 2004.


Progress 10/01/03 to 09/30/04

Outputs
This project was extended in May 2004 to include dynamics at the state level.

Impacts
An indicator of the relative decrease in the marginal cost of production of corn, wheat, soybeans, and livestock in U.S. agriculture during the last 50 years is obtained. Competitiveness in the markets for these commodities is directly related to this marginal cost decrease. The indicator then gives an idea of the competitiveness of the U.S. in the markets for these agricultural commodites. The other line of research is important in explaining the different pricing schemes accross countries of GMO seeds. Farmers in some countries are not paying the same fee as U.S. farmers for these seed traits. Domestic producers complain of unfair treatment. Understanding that it is the legal system in each country, in addition to the characteristics of the trait, the main culprit for the differential pricing is important.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 10/01/02 to 09/30/03

Outputs
Griliches' k-shift, a crucial parameter in the welfare evaluation of technological change is shown to be equal to the sum of the radial rate of technological change plus a bias parameter obtained from the distance function. This is a measure of productivity growth by commodity and an indicator of relative competitiveness across commodities. The k-shift, renamed 'rate of commodity progress,' is estimated for wheat, corn, soybeans, and beef in U.S. agriculture indicating a decrease in the marginal cost of production of corn, soybeans and wheat during the 1950-1995 years. Corn has become cheaper and beef has become more expensive to produce relative to all other agricultural commodities. Another issue considered is the retail pricing of patented crop traits such as Roundup Ready herbicide resistance or Bt insect resistance. Our concern is not with the price of the seeds in which the traits are embodied, but rather with the implicit or explicit price for the traits themselves. Intellectual property rights are now available for traits, and while monopoly pricing of them has received some limited consideration in the economics literature, no one has yet examined the possible implications of the durability of these traits as a factor in determining such monopolists' pricing behavior.

Impacts
An indicator of the relative decrease in the marginal cost of production of corn, wheat, soybeans, and livestock in U.S. agriculture during the last 50 years is obtained. Competitiveness in the markets for these commodities is directly related to this marginal cost decrease. The indicator then gives an idea of the competitiveness of the U.S. in the markets for these agricultural commodites. The other line of research is important in explaining the different pricing schemes accross countries of GMO seeds. Farmers in some countries are not paying the same fee as U.S. farmers for these seed traits. Domestic producers complain of unfair treatment. Understanding that it is the legal system in each country, in addition to the characteristics of the trait, the main culprit for the differential pricing is important.

Publications

  • Barber, C. E. & Vega, D. (2002). Latino Families Caring for the Frail and Dependent Elderly: Implications for the Re-Design of Long-term Care. A workshop presentation ("Multicultural Boomers as Caregivers") at the 2002 Joint Conference of the National Council on the Aging and the American Society on Aging. Denver, CO.
  • Barber, C. E., Vega, L. D., & Fruhauf, C. A. (2004). The impact of filial caregiving on Mexican American families residing in Colorado. A presentation made at the annual meeting of the Gerontological Society of America, Washington, D.C.
  • Barber, C. E. (2002). A comparison of Hispanic and Non-Hispanic White families caring for elderly parents. A presentation at the annual meeting of the Gerontological Society of America, Boston, MA.
  • Radina, M. E. & Barber, C. E. (in press). Utilization of formal support services among Hispanic Americans caring for aging parents. Journal of Gerontological Social Work.
  • Fulginiti, L.E., 2003, 'Griliches' k-shift and Competitiveness: Commodity Progress in U.S. Agriculture' under review.
  • Perrin, R.K. and L.E. Fulginiti, 2003, 'Dynamic Pricing of Genetically Modified Crop Traits' under review.
  • Barber, C. E. & Vega, L. D. (in press). Ethnic differences in the experience of filial caregiving: A comparison of Hispanic and Non-Hispanic White caregivers in Colorado. Southwest Journal on Aging.


Progress 10/01/01 to 09/30/02

Outputs
A measure of competitiveness, the rate of commodity progress, was theoretically developed. This measure is consistent with elements of production theory. The distance function is used to estimate its components. It is shown that the rate of commodity progress, which indicates the evolution of competitiveness by commodity, is what Griliches' defined as k-shift. This k-shift, or shift of the marginal cost curve, can be expressed in terms of technology parameters, the rate and bias of technological change and therefore can be estimated from a well specified technology, contrary to general belief. The behavior and properties of the distance function as a means to capture productivity change and its characteristics is analyzed in detail for the first time. Specific formulas to measure these properties are developed for the general case. A generalized quadratic distance function is used to denonstrate the above concepts and specific formulas for this functional form are developed. An aggregate distance function for U.S. agriculture is estimated and the rate of commodity progress, or the k-shift, for main export commodities is estimated for the 1950-1993 period. The commodities analyzed are: corn, soybeans, wheat, and beef. The rate of productivity change for U.S. agriculture is estimated at 2.8 percent for the 1950-1995 period. The analysis also shows that the rate of commodity progress has been 8.1 percent for corn, 6.2 percent for soybeans, 3.9 percent for wheat and -0.6 percent for beef. Work also started on a generalization of productivity measures to account for externalities, policies, and imperfect competition. Work on pricing of GMO seeds, in particular soybeans and corn, has also started.

Impacts
Relative competitiveness of U.S. agriculture in the production of these commodities indicate the effectiveness of R&D in reducing the relative cost of these export crops giving an indication of future export potential.

Publications

  • Perrin, R.K. and L. E. Fulginiti. "Technological Change and Welfare in an Open Economy with Distortions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 83 (May 2001): 455-464.


Progress 10/01/00 to 09/30/01

Outputs
Preliminary estimation of the relative decrease in costs of production of beef, corn, wheat, and soybeans in U.S. agriculture was performed. This was done thorugh the use of an econometric distance function. Griliches' k-shifts, indicating changes in competitiveness by commodity were obtained. These shifts were expressed as a combination of technology parameters and named 'rate of commodity progress'.

Impacts
These estimates are indicators, at an aggregate level, of the per commodity changes in competitiveness of agricultural production in the U.S. More productive commodities imply increased world competitiveness.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 10/01/99 to 09/30/00

Outputs
Data has been collected on agricultural inputs and outputs for the period 1948-1992 in US agriculture. The variables of interest include prices paid and received by farmers and quantities used and produced. These variables have been aggregated into Tornquist price and quantity indexes and the appropriate separability tests have been conducted. Additional effort is needed to update the data set to include the period 1992-1999.

Impacts
No impact yet.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 10/01/98 to 09/30/99

Outputs
Project in first stages. Process of data collection and manipulation started.

Impacts
No impact yet.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period