Progress 06/08/09 to 06/07/14
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The demand for grain transportation capacity and changes in grain transportation flows on inland waterways may be altered due to shifts in geographic crop production patterns that result from climate change. Shifts in the geographic crop production mix have been observed in recent years in response to changing climate. The primary exhibited trend is a northward shift in corn production into historical wheat-producing regions. Because of the difference in typical destinations and volumes of corn and wheat shipments, such changes have the potential to alter the geographic pattern and composition of grain flows throughout the United States and the Mississippi River system, a leading grain transport artery. As a result, the demand for grain transportation capacity and facilities in the Mississippi River basin may be altered in the near future. To examine future potential changes in grain transportation flow, a US agricultural sector model and international grain transportation model are utilized. The former predicts shifts in spatial grain production patterns that result from climate change, while the latter analyzes the effect of predicted production shifts on grain transportation patterns. Results of the study are being distributed via publications and presentations to interested parties.PARTICIPANTS: Partner organizations in this effort were Texas AgriLife Extension and University Transportation Center for Mobility at Texas A&M University. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project. PARTICIPANTS: Partner organizations in this effort were Texas AgriLife Extension and University Transportation Center for Mobility at Texas A&M University. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.
Impacts
IMPACT: 2011/1 to 2011/12 The analyses show the overall future demand for barge transportation may decline, but the Mississippi River is likely to receive higher grain transportation shipments under most climate change scenarios due to the increase in grain supply in the middle and northern portions of Minnesota and North Dakota. Therefore, improving the efficiency of the upper Mississippi barge transportation system to enhance international competitiveness may be warranted. Due to the projected increase in overall demand for rail transport, many railroad segments may require upgrading and expansion. This includes routes from Minnesota and North Dakota to Pacific Northwest ports; Minnesota to Oklahoma and New Mexico; Nebraska to California; South Dakota to Texas Gulf ports; and Michigan to Atlantic ports. Further, short-line railroad capacity may need to be expanded in selected regions in the North Central United States. Truck transportation is projected to increase its role as a transporter of grain. Road infrastructure may need to be expanded and upgraded to accommodate the increasing grain traffic which is expected to increase to nearby excess demand locations and ports. Regions likely to be affected include Minnesota, selected regions adjacent to the Ohio and lower Mississippi River, routes in northern Ohio, and roads in Pennsylvania and Ohio leading to Atlantic ports.
Publications
- Fraire, F., Fuller, S., Robinson, J., and Vadali, S. 2011. Feasibility of Containerized Transport in Rural Areas and Effect on Roadways and Environment: A Case Study. AFERC Research Report No. CP-03-11. Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University.
- Fuller, S. Robinson,J., Fraire, F., and Vadali, S. 2011. Improving Intermodal Connectivity in Rural Areas to Enhance Transportation Efficiency. UTCM Report No. 07-07. University Transportation Center for Mobility, Texas A&M University.
- Vedenov, D., Fuller, S., McCarl, B., Attavanich, W., and Ahmedov, Z. 2011. Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production Patterns and Implications to Transport Flows and Inland Waterways. UTCM Report No. 10-54-51, University Transportation Center for Mobility, Texas A&M University.
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Progress 01/01/10 to 12/31/10
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Because of underdeveloped intermodal linkages in rural areas, circuitous routing patterns often result with potentially unnecessary traffic placed onto roadways that link rural areas into distant intermodal terminals that are often in congested metro centers. This research examined the feasibility of investment in intermodal terminals in rural Texas. The focus was on cotton, a leading agricultural commodity in Texas, which is highly dependent on the international market (80% of crop exported) and truck transport into the Dallas-Ft.Worth complex for purposes of accessing containerized railroad transportation to west coast ports. Analysis was carried out with a spatial model of the national cotton economy that included all actors in the cotton supply channel. The national model featured all handling, storage and transportation costs associated with movement of baled cotton from rural processing plants to domestic demand regions, port areas and border-crossing locations. Results of study are being distributed via publications and presentations to interested parties. PARTICIPANTS: Partner organizations in this effort were Texas Agrilife Extension, and University Transportation Center for Mobility at Texas A&M University. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.
Impacts
The analysis indicate an intermodal terminal in west Texas' intensive cotton production region would attract about 30% of Texas' average production. The facility would be expected to have annual profits of $2.41 million and a return on investment of 22.5%. Implementation of an intermodal terminal in west Texas is estimated to reduce annual cotton truck traffic into Dallas-Ft. Worth by up to 22,000 trucks with truck-traveled miles on public roadways reduced an estimated 12 million loaded truck-miles and annual road deterioration costs reduced in excess of $1.6 million. Findings are important to the cotton marketing industry, public transportation agencies, and cotton transportation companies. Analysis show intermodal terminals in selected rural areas represent an opportunity for public-private partnerships because of reduced roadway maintenance costs and these transportation facilities represent means of reducing cotton marketing costs that enhance U.S. cotton's international competitiveness.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Mentored graduate students regarding development of spatial models and associated model data development and participated in conferences of several professional organizations through presentation of papers and posters. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.
Impacts
Outcomes/Impacts: A recent study develops a deeper understanding of the forces responsible for the decline in U.S. and Canadian grain traffic on the St. Lawrence Seaway. Statistical analysis shows relocation of world demands for North American grain is central to explaining the decline in Seaway grain flow. Europe's decline in demand for Canadian and U.S. grain had an important influence on Seaway grain tonnage and the demise of the Soviet Union and its demand for Canadian grain also unfavorably affected Seaway grain traffic. Research suggests the U.S.'s substantial and continuous growth in grain exports to Asia negatively influenced U.S. exports via the Seaway. It is believed that the growth in Asian demand for U.S. grain expanded Gulf and Pacific Northwest grain port hinterlands at the expense of Great Lake port hinterlands and the expansion of the Pacific Northwest hinterland was partially facilitated by rail deregulation (Staggers Rail Act of 1980) and the introduction of increasingly efficient train service that linked Minnesota, Iowa,and the Dakotas to Pacific Northwest ports. The analysis shows the declining real rail grain rates following the Staggers Rail Act in 1980 was statistically important and had a negative influence on Seaway grain traffic as did Canada's Western Grain Transportation Act of 1983. The decline in demand for North American grain in Europe is largely a result of the European Union's agricultural policies that have encouraged domestic grain production through increased subsidization of production agriculture, expansion of the E.U. to include grain-exporting countries in Eastern Europe, and preferential trade agreements that exclude Canada and the United States.
Publications
- Fuller, S., Millerd F., Fraire F., and Afonso, M. 2009. Analysis of Factors Influencing Grain Traffic on the St. Lawrence Seaway. Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, 48(2): 51-69.
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Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08
Outputs
OUTPUTS: A research effort was carried out to gain increased insight into the effect of a catastrophic event that blocks transportation of grain on the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Analysis assumes the catastrophic event occurs at Lock and Dam 27 (St. Louis) which blocks all export-destined grain movements by barge from Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and portions of Missouri. Base model analysis indicates 27 million metric tons of corn and soybeans would require diversion from this artery and closure would potentially increase flows to Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes and Atlantic coast ports, and increase rail transport of grain to Gulf ports, as well as increase flows to river elevators south of St. Louis and on the Ohio River. Ports and transport corridors are constrained to the historic maximum. Analyses shows most critical linkages in order of importance are: river elevator capacities south of St. Louis, rail handling capacity at Gulf ports, Great Lakes grain handling capacity, Ohio River grain handling capacity, and Pacific Northwest corridor's handling capacity. Losses to producers as a result of lower grain prices is estimated to range from $229 to $806 million depending on corridor and port constraint levels and railroad's pricing behavior. PARTICIPANTS: Partner organization in this years work was the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.
Impacts
Findings are important to agricultural and transportation policy analyses. Analysis shows the importance of these transport arteries to agriculture and relates a plan in case of a similar catastrophic event on these arteries.
Publications
- Fellin, L. Fuller, S. Kruse, J. Meyer, S. Womack, A. 2008. The upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers as grain transport arteries: a spatial equilibrium analysis. J. Tran. Res. Fm., 47: 73-95.
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Progress 12/19/07 to 12/19/08
Outputs
Central to navigation on the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers are 37 locks and dams that maintain a 9-foot channel for barge transportation. The aging lock and dam system has generated concern about the future navigational efficiency of these transport arteries. Greatest concern centers on lock capacity in the lower portions of these rivers where comparatively high traffic congestion generates extended barge delay. Grain producers argue that the lock delay on the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers unfavorably influences barge rates and the competitiveness of U.S. grain in the international market. The purpose of the study was to identify and measure the impact of lock delay on grain barge rates. Directed acyclic graphs and multivariate time-series analysis show that lock delay on the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers modestly increases grain barge rates. Based on the historic average delay at locks 18 through 27 (29.1 hours), the grain barge rate linking
the south Minnesota region to lower Mississippi River ports is increased by about $1250/barge, while rates from north Iowa increase about $950/barge, and Illinois River rates increase about $480/barge.
Impacts
Findings are important to transport planners who are evaluating the need for improved navigation infrastructure on the upper Mississippi and Illinois River. Results show lock delay on the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers increases grain barge rates and this presumably lowers grain prices in the Midwest region. Further, although grain barge rates are increased by lock delay the impact on rates is not large.
Publications
- Yu, T., Bessler, D., Fuller, S. 2006. Effect of lock delay on grain barge rates: examination of the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Ann. Reg. Sci. 40:887-908.
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Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07
Outputs
OUTPUTS: An enhanced understanding regarding price transmission between grain markets, both export and domestic, and the influence of transport rates on grain market price are examined. The short run analysis shows Pacific Northwest (PNW) export corn price is largely explained by Mississippi Gulf export corn price (70%) while about 5% of the variation in PNW export corn price is explained by rail rates linking the Corn Belt to PNW. Over an extended time horizon (1 year) about 58% of the uncertainty in PNW export corn price is attributed to freight rates, with barge, rail, and ship rates accounting for 12%, 16%, and 30%, respectively. In the long run, Mississippi River barge rates explained 10 - 13% of variation in evaluated domestic and export market corn prices while rail rates explain 15 - 21% of this variation. Shocks in two evaluated ship rates (Gulf and PNW to Asia) were responsible for 17 - 30% of the variation in domestic and export market corn prices. The six analyzed
transportation rates explained 42 - 64% of the variation in examined corn prices with most of the variation explained by ship rates.
TARGET AUDIENCES: agricultural commodity groups
Impacts
Findings are important to agricultural and transportation policy analyses. Typical analyses fails to offer insight on how transport rates influence agricultural commodity prices. This analysis fills that void for grain and suggests the currently high and variable transport and energy prices have a substantial influence on agricultural commodity prices.
Publications
- Yu, T., Bessler, D., Fuller, S. 2007. Price dynamics in U.S. grain and freight markets. Canadian J. Ag. Econ., 55:381-397.
- Babcock, M. Fuller, S. 2007. A model of corn and soybean shipments on the Ohio River. J. Tran. Res. Fm., 46:21-33.
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Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/05
Outputs
Barges operating on the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers originate nearly 60% of U.S. corn exports and about one-third of the corn traded in international commerce, and over 40% of U.S. soybean exports and about one-fifth of all soybeans traded in the world market. Recent estimates of grain barge demands show short-run own price elasticities for the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers are -0.43 and -.21, respectively, while long-run elasticities are -.80 and -.31. As expected, foreign grain demand has an important influence on grain barge demand. This effect is greatest on the upper Mississippi, with an estimated elasticity of 0.93. Domestic grain demands as measured by processor corn price was found to have an important influence on barge transport demand. On the Illinois River, a 1% increase in processor corn price reduces barge transport demand .38%. In addition, navigability conditions as influenced by winter, flood and water level have a statistically
important influence on river grain transport demand. The influence of other transport modes on river transport demands was found to be modest and, in some cases, unexpected.
Impacts
Findings are important for transport planners who are evaluating the need for improved navigation infrastructure on the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Results indicate (1) marginal benefits from incremental infrastructure improvements may be greatest on the upper Mississippi, (2) reliable estimates of future grain exports and regional domestic demands are critical to determining need for improved navigation infrastructure, and (3) federal water release policy as implemented by dams on Missouri River influence grain barge demands and future infrastructure needs on the Mississippi River system.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/04 to 12/31/04
Outputs
The upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers are important transportation arteries for movement of fertilizer and petroleum products into the north central U.S. and for exporting grain from the region to U.S. Gulf ports. Analyses show lock delay in the lower reaches of these rivers affects grain barge rates that link the region to central Gulf grain ports. An additional hour of delay is estimated to increase the Minnesota and Iowa grain barge rates 2.73 and 2.07 cents/ton and Illinois River barge rates in a similar manner. Based on the historic average delay at locks in the lower reaches of the upper Mississippi, the grain barge rate linking Minnesota to Gulf ports is estimated to increase about $1,191/barge (7 %) while the Iowa grain barge rate increases about $903/barge (6 %). Barge rates for moving grain from Illinois River origins to Gulf ports increase an estimated $480/barge (5 %) because of lock delay. In addition, lock delay accounts for about 8 % of the
variation in Minnesota grain barge rates, 6 % of variation in Iowa grain barge rates and about 10 percent of the variation in Illinois River grain rates.
Impacts
The upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers are important transportation arteries for the north central U.S. Analyses show lock delay on these rivers increase grain barge rates that link the region to world grain markets.
Publications
- Fuller, S. and T. Yu, 2004. The Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers: Value and Importance of these Transport Arteries for U. S. Agriculture, FAPRI-UMC Briefing Paper 03-04, June.
- Fuller, S. and T. Yu, 2004. Briefing Paper on the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers Transportation Corridors: Grain Transportation Rates and Associated Market Area. FAPRI-UMC Briefing Paper 03-04, July.
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Progress 01/01/03 to 12/31/03
Outputs
The lock and dam system on the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers is aged and in segments with comparatively high traffic levels, barge delay has become troublesome. The economic benefit from upgrading locks is conceptually based on the willingness of users to pay for these infrastructure improvements. The characteristics of grain barge demands on the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers have an important affect on the likely benefits from lock and dam expansion. Analysis show the own-price elasticity of grain barge demand on these rivers to range from -0.2 to -0.5, hence an inelastic relationship. Foreign grain demand, as measured by quantities of grain exported from lower Mississippi River ports, has an important influence on grain barge demands with elasticities on the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers averaging 1.4 to 0.8, respectively. The winter season was found to be an important shifter of grain barge demands on both rivers while floods have an
important influence on grain barge demands on the upper Mississippi. Variables designed to measure the effect of domestic grain consumption, competing transportation modes and ocean freight rates on grain barge demands did not yield consistently robust results that were statistically significant.
Impacts
The upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers are important for the marketing of U.S. grain to export at lower Mississippi River ports. Estimated grain barge demands suggest improvements in river infrastructure would be an important benefit to U.S. agriculture.
Publications
- Yu, T. and S. Fuller. 2003. Estimated Grain Barge Demands for the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. TAMRC Commodity Market Research Report, CM 1-03.
- Fuller, S., T. Yu, L. Fellin, A. Lalor, and R. Krajewski. 2003. Transportation Development in South America and their Effect on International Agricultural Competitiveness. Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1820: 62-68.
- Fuller, S. 2003. Transportation Sector from the Perspective of a Transportation Economist. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 35(2): 197-201.
- Robinson, J., H. Zang, and S. Fuller. 2003. Weekly Price-Shipment Demand Relationships for South Texas Onions. Journal of the Rio Grande Valley Horticultural Society. 54: 11-15.
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Progress 01/01/02 to 12/31/02
Outputs
A survey of Texas agribusiness shows that large quantities of grain (>750 million bushels) from the corn belt and central plains are rail-transported to Texas for consumption by its livestock, poultry, and dairy industries and for export via Texas Gulf ports and Texas-Mexico border locations. Trucks are central to the marketing of Texas-produced feed grains (corn and sorghum), since these grains are primarily destined for consumption by Texas livestock, dairy, and poultry. Exceptions are feed grain exports to Texas Gulf ports and Mexico, which are dependent on both transport modes. Texas wheat production is dependent on railroad transportation for purposes of accessing export and out-of-state milling markets, while Texas rice production is largely dependent on truck transportation (except for rough rice exports to Mexico). Texas grain handlers believe service offered by truckers is satisfactory to good but many grain handlers are frustrated by service offered by
railroads. Texas country elevators indicate that inadequate rail service has at times required them to lower their grain bid price to farmers an average of $0.14/bushel. Frustration with railroads is due to increased Class I concentration, shrinking rail network, push to shuttle trains, redefinition of the common carrier obligation, and an altered car-ordering system.
Impacts
Texas rural highways are important for the marketing of Texas grain while animal feeding in Texas is dependent on rail and truck transportation; therefore, both modes are central to Texas agriculture. It is important for Texas agriculture that the rural highway and bridge system be adequately funded.
Publications
- Yu, T. and S. Fuller. 2002. Factors Affecting Lock Delay on the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers and Effect of Lock Delay on Barge Rates. TAMRC Consumer and Product Report CP 2-02.
- Jamieson, J., R. Harrison, and S. Fuller. 2002. Grain Transportation in Texas: Survey Results, Future Trends, and Policy Prescriptions. Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, 56(3): 111-127.
- Jonnala, S., S. Fuller, and D. Bessler. 2002. A GARCH Approach to Modeling Ocean Grain Freight Rates. International Journal of Maritime Economics, 4(2): 103-125.
- Park, J., J. Mjelde, S. Fuller, J. Malaga, P. Rosson, and F. Dainello. 2002. An Assessment of ENSO Events on Fresh Vegetable/Melon Supply, Hortscience 37(2): 287-291.
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Progress 01/01/01 to 12/31/01
Outputs
South America has emerged as a major competitor of the United States in world grain markets. Spatial models of the international corn and soybean economies are used to evaluate the effect of recent and expected improvements in South America's marketing and transportation infrastructure on competitiveness in world grain markets. Results suggest these improvements yield noteworthy gains in South America with producer revenues increasing over $1 billion/year and annual exports increasing 3.28 million tons. As a result of the added efficiency and increased exports, world prices decline and projected exports and producer revenues in the United States decline 1.37 million tons and $290 million per year respectively.
Impacts
Analysis suggests that transportation and marketing infrastructure in the United States and competing countries affects competitiveness in world grain markets, hence the importance of maintaining necessary infrastructure.
Publications
- Fuller, S., T. Yu, L. Fellin, A. Lalor and R. Krajewski, 2001. Effects of Improving South America's Transportation System on International Competitiveness in World Grain Markets. TAMRC International Market Research Report No. IM-2-01.
- Ordonez, H., A. Lalor and S. Fuller. 2001. Grain Production, Marketing, and Transportation in Argentina. TAMRC International Market Research Report No. IM-3-01.
- Malaga, J., G. Williams and S. Fuller. 2001. US-Mexico fresh vegetable trade: the effects of trade liberatlization and economic growth, Agricultural Economics, 26(1): 45-55.
- Bessler, D., S. Fuller and A. Khan. 2001. Dynamics of Grain Prices and Barge Rates on the Upper Mississippi/Illinois Rivers, Proceedings of the 43th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Forum, October 22-24, 2001, Williamsburg, Virginia, 38-69.
- Jamieson, J., R. Harrison and S. Fuller. 2001. Grain Transportation in Texas: Survey Results, Future Trends and Policy Prescriptions, Proceedings of the 43rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Forum, October 22-24, 2001, Williamsburg, Virginia, 325-355.
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Progress 01/01/00 to 12/31/00
Outputs
The effects on U.S. rough, brown and white long-grain rice exports to Mexico that result from removal of Mexico's rice tariffs in 2003 and from Mexico's acceptance of long-grain rice imports from Thailand were examined. The study objectives were accomplished with an economic model of the long-grain rice market that made projections regarding the effects of trade policy changes. Results show elimination of Mexican rice tariffs will increase U.S. long-grain rice price and revenue a modest 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively, while increasing exports to Mexico by 7.1%. Also, as a result of Mexico's tariff removal, U.S. milled rice exports to Mexico would increase while rough rice exports decline. This outcome is the result of Mexico's currently high tariff on milled rice products. In Mexico, the impacts of liberalized rice trade is comparatively great. Mexico's long-grain rice production and price is expected to decline about 12% while consumption is projected to increase about
3%. Thailand is a potential threat to the U.S.'s current dominance in the Mexican rice import market, particularly if historically high U.S./Bangkok price spreads and comparatively low Thailand-to-Mexico ship rates were to occur. Mexico's tariffs on rice imports from Thailand are important in preserving the U.S.'s role in the Mexican rice market.
Impacts
Analysis has made U.S. rice millers increasingly aware of opportunities to export milled rice products to Mexico ex post tariff removal. This will increase the opportunity for U.S. millers to advertise and differentiate U.S. rice products in the Mexican market.
Publications
- Fuller, S., L. Fellin and K. Eriksen. 2000. Panama Canal: How Critical to US Grain Exports, Agribusiness An International Journal, 16(4): 435-457.
- Hill, H., J. Park, J. Mjelde, W. Rosenthal, A. Love and S. Fuller. 2000. Comparing the Value of Southern Oscillation Index-Based Climate Forecast Methods for Canadian and US Wheat Producers, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 100:261-272.
- Fellin, L., S. Fuller and V. Salin. 2000. US/Mexico Rice Trade: An Economic Analysis of Factors Influencing Future trade, TAMRC International Market Research Report No. IM 1-100.
- Jonalla, S., D. Bessler and S. Fuller. 2000. An Analysis of International grain freight rates, Proceedings of the 42nd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Forum, Anapolis, Maryland, 160-189.
- Bessler, D. and S. Fuller. 2000. Railroad Wheat Transportation Markets in the Central Plains: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Graphs, Transportation Research, Part E. Logistics and Transportation Review, 36(1):21-39.
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Progress 01/01/99 to 12/31/99
Outputs
The administration and operation of the Panama Canal was transferred to the Republic of Panama on December 31, 1999. Shipping and agricultural interests indicate new Canal management may increase tolls in an effort to maximize revenues and some fear mismanagement may eventually result in Canal closure. Spatial models of the international corn and soybean sectors are employed to determine the effects of increasing Canal tolls and Canal closure on United States exports and producer revenues. Results show increasing tolls would reduce exports via U.S. Gulf ports, increase exports via U.S. Pacific northwest ports, reduce quantities transiting the Canal and increase maritime movements to east Asia via Africa's Cape of Good Hope. The U.S.'s role in Asia's corn and soybean markets would decline while Europe and north Africa become increasingly important markets. Exports of the U.S. would decline no more than two percent. Analysis suggests a revenue-maximizing Canal operator
could substantially increase revenues by adjusting tolls up by $2/ton on corn-laden vessels and $1/ton on soybean-laden vessels. This would lower annual U.S. corn and soybean revenues about $160 million. Closing the Canal has a similar influence on flows and trading partners as higher tolls. If the Canal were closed, revenues of U.S. corn and soybean producers are projected to decline $303 million per year.
Impacts
With Canal closing, U.S. corn and soybean producer revenues would decline about 0.8 percent.
Publications
- Fuller,S., Fellin, L., Grant, W., and Bertels, P. 1999. "Grain Transportation Capacity of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers: A Spatial Analysis," Journal of Transportation Research Forum, Vol. 38, No. 1.
- Fuller,S., Fellin,L., and Eriksen,K. 1999. "The Panama Canal and its Affect on the Competitiveness of the U.S. in International Grain/Oilseed Markets," Texas A&M University, TAMRC International Market Report No. IM 1-99.
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Progress 01/01/98 to 12/31/98
Outputs
Inland waterways in the U.S. are important transportation arteries for agriculture. Abandonment of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway below Corpus Christi, Texas was projected to annually increase transport costs about $11.4 million. The Upper MIssissippi and Illinois Rivers originate about half of U.S. corn exports and one-third of U.S. soybean exports. Traffic on these arteries is projected to double. Analysis shows increasing quantities of corn/soybeans diverted from Upper Mississippi as traffic levels, congestion, tow delay and barge costs increase. If traffic levels increase 50 percent, about 30 percent of corn would be diverted from this artery and a doubling in traffic would divert 58 percent of corn. Based on 1992-1994 production levels and prices, a 50 percent increase in traffic would annually reduce producer revenues $45 million and a doubling in traffic would lower revenues about $100 million.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
- L. Fellin and S. Fuller, 1998. Privatization of Mexico's Railroad System and Implications for U.S./Mexico Grain/Oilseed Trade, International Market Research Report IM 1-98, Texas Agricultural Market Research Center, Texas A&M University.
- S. Fuller and L. Fellin, 1998. Effect of Privatizing Mexico's Rail System on U.S. Grain/Oilseed Exports, Journal of Transportation Research Forum, Vol. 37, No. 1, 46-58.
- S. Fuller, L. Fellin and W. Grant, 1998. The Upper Mississippi/Illinois Rivers and Grain/Soybean Transportation, Commercial Market Research Report CM 1-98, Texas Agricultural Market Research Center, Texas A&M University.
- E. Makaudze, D. Bessler and S. Fuller, 1998. Modeling Zimbabwe's Corn Supply, Development South Africa, Vol. 15, No. 3, 413-427.
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Progress 01/01/97 to 12/31/97
Outputs
Privatization of Mexico's state-owned railroad was found to have favorable implications for U.S. overland grain/soybean exports. Spatial models in combination with a heuristic procedure is followed to determine profit maximizing rates likely to be charged by privatized Mexican carriers. Results show privatization of the Mexican railroad system would increase U.S. overland exports of corn, sorghum and soybeans from 3.5 million metric tons (mmt) to 6.433 mmt, an increase of 2.933 mmt. About three-fourths of these exports are projected to cross at Laredo, Texas and to be carried to Mexcian demand centers by Mexico's Northeast system. The projected increase in overland exports results from significant reductions in costs and rates. For example, under the pre-privatization rate structure, rates on feedgrain movements from U.S. border crossing sites to Central Mexico ranged up to $27/ton whereas under privatization projected rates decline to about $19/ton.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
- S. FULLER AND L. FELLIN, 1997. Effect of Proposed Waterway User Tax on U.S. Grain Flow Patterns and Producers, Journal of Transportation Research Forum, Vol. 38, No. 1.
- S. FULLER, M. GILLIS, C. PARNELL, A. RAMAIYER AND R. CHILDERS, 1997. Effect of Air Pollution Abatement on Financial Performance of Texas Cotton Gins, Agribusiness: An International Journal, Vol. 13, No. 5.
- S. FULLER AND L. FELLIN, 1997. Effect of Privatizing Mexico`s Rail System on U.S. Grain/Oilseed Exports, Journal of Transportation Research Forum, Vol. 38, No. 1.
- J. MALAGA, G. WILLIAMS AND S. FULLER, 1997. Effect of the North American Free Trade Agreement on U.S. and Mexican Fresh Vegetable Trade, International Market Research Report No. IM 1-97, Texas Agricultural Market Research Center, Texas A&M University.
- J. MEMMOTT, S. FULLER, M. GILLIS AND H. LUEDECKE, 1997. The Rural Transportation Network in Texas, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University, Research Report 1437-1.
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