SYSTEMS MODELING OF WILDLIFE DYNAMICS ACROSS HETEROGENEOUS LANDSCAPES

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: COMPLETE
• Funding Source: HATCH
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 0170575
• Project Start Date: Dec 1, 2011
• Project End Date: Nov 30, 2016
• Program Code: [(N/A)]- (N/A)

Recipient Organization
MICHIGAN STATE UNIV
(N/A)
EAST LANSING,MI 48824

Performing Department
Fisheries & Wildlife

Non Technical Summary
Wildlife is an integral component of the economy, society and ecosystems in Michigan and around the world. As to its economic contributions, wildlife provides extensive opportunities for consumptive (e.g., hunting, trapping) and nonconsumptive recreation (observing, photographing) (Winterstein et al. 1995). For example, in 1991 more than two-thirds of the residents in Michigan participated in wildlife-related activity and spent almost $1.8 billion on wildlife related recreation (Scott Winterstein, pers. comm.). In the meantime, wildlife can have negative impacts on multi-billion dollar forestry and agriculture industries, such as deer damage to seedlings, fruits, and agricultural crops. The social impact and concern of wildlife damage are also arising. A common case would be the increase in car-deer collisions due to increase in deer populations. Wildlife includes not only game species, but also non-game and endangered/threatened species. All these species interact with each other directly and indirectly. They are essential to maintain normal ecosystem functions and to achieve sustainable economic development. It is hard to overestimate the true ecological-socioeconomic values of these wildlife species. Habitat modifications or population changes on local scales may have many unexpected short- and long-term consequences at landscape or regional levels (An, Linderman et al. 2005). Wildlife is usually mobile and cannot recognize the boundaries of land ownerships. For instance, wildlife breeding in public lands may move to the surrounding private lands and cause damages. Many species (e.g., migratory birds) also require different habitats for their different life stages. Management of one species at one location could impact community structure and biological diversity at another location. Unfortunately, previous research and management mainly focused on local spatial scales and short temporal scales. Furthermore, many existing research results are fragmentary. The complex issues facing wildlife researchers and managers may be addressed using a systems approach and modeling tools. Recent rapid advances in computer and spatial technologies have made it possible to integrate ecological-socioeconomic information for the management and understanding of long-term wildlife dynamics across large-scale heterogeneous landscapes. To explore the potential of systems modeling, this project proposes a few case studies to provide information and understanding of (1) how to meet the requirements for wildlife and other resources (e.g., timber and non-market ecosystem services), (2) how to maintain biological diversity, and (3) how to coordinate management across lands owned and managed by different stakeholders.

Animal Health Component

(N/A)

Research Effort Categories

Basic

(N/A)

Applied

(N/A)

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
136	0830	1070	30%
136	0850	1070	25%
315	0830	1070	10%
315	0850	1070	25%
136	0850	3010	10%

Knowledge Area
136 - Conservation of Biological Diversity; 315 - Animal Welfare/Well-Being and Protection;

Subject Of Investigation
0850 - Wildlife habitats; 0830 - Wild animals;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology; 3010 - Economics;

Keywords

wildlife

ecosystem

complex

modelling

panda habitat

wolong nature reserve

michigan upper peninsula

Goals / Objectives
The objectives of the proposed research are to: (A) Develop systems models which integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors; (B) Provide information for decision-makers and wildlife managers to evaluate long-term management scenarios; and (C) Understand the mechanisms of wildlife dynamics on landscape mosaics. The products of this project will include new understanding of some complex issues and user-friendly computer models which managers and researchers can use to project long-term ecological-socioeconomic consequences of various management alternatives.

Project Methods
The general procedures to achieve the Objectives consist of data collection and analysis, model construction and test, sensitivity analysis, and model applications. Data collection and Analysis: The data will be analyzed and integrated into a geographic information system (GIS). GIS (ARC/INFO) will be used to identify the spatial relationships among different patches (e.g., distance from habitats to roads). Using least squares and/or maximum likelihood methods, linear and non-linear (e.g., logistic) equations will be established to describe the interactions among various variables (e.g., body weight and food nutrition status in habitats). Residuals from the fitted equations will be examined for temporal patterns and relationships, and the equations will be modified if significant lack of fit occurs. Model Validation: A number of qualitative and quantitative methods(Dent 1979; Sargent 1984) will be used to validate our models. Our quantitative measures will include statistical tests and deviance measures. Two thirds of our empirical data will be randomly selected for model development and the remaining 1/3 data will be reserved to validate the models. By drawing the data randomly, we can avoid potential biases that might be introduced by using a temporal or a spatial partition. Model outputs will be tested against the independent data reserved for model validation. Statistical tests include paired t-test, goodness-of-fit test, and root mean square error(Grant 1997; Liu 1998). Deviance measures that summarize the degree of fit will be used to validate the models by pairing simulated and observed values according to time, location, etc(Mayer 1993). Qualitative methods will include expert assessments and visual techniques. For instance, expert opinion will be used to determine if the model behavior is a reasonable representation of long-term forest dynamics, because it is possible that some simulated patterns may differ drastically from historical records. Visual techniques, such as maps of forest dynamics and graphic plots of both simulated and observed values against independent variables will also be used as they are considered very useful and practicable in model validation, and complement quantitative measures(Sargent 1984; Swartzman 1987; Mayer 1993). Model Applications: Once the models are tested and implemented, we will help wildlife managers to understand and apply the models to the real world. We intend to develop a good graphical user interface and to hear the concerns and opinions from the users throughout the processes of model development.

Progress 12/01/11 to 11/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:Scientific community and general public. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Students have been given opportunities to attend and give presentations at professional meetings. Staff members have attended relevant training courses for further knowledge and skills. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The objectives of the proposed research are to: (A) Develop systems models which integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors; (B) Provide information for decision-makers and wildlife managers to evaluate long-term management scenarios; and (C) Understand the mechanisms of wildlife dynamics on landscape mosaics. The products of this project will include new understanding of some complex issues and user-friendly computer models which managers and researchers can use to project long-term ecological-socioeconomic consequences of various management alternatives. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?I plan to submit a number of grant proposals, write papers for publication, disseminate research findings to the general public, and give presentations at professional meetings.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected. More than a dozen presentations have been given at national and international conferences as well as other universities (e.g., keynote talk at international conference on Landscape Ecology conference held in California). Thirteen papers and one book have been published, in addition to a number of papers which are now in press. We have quantified how different factors (e.g., socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, and ecological) interactively affect wildlife habitat across human-influenced landscapes. The results provide useful information and insight into a better understanding of human-environment interactions. The tools and data generated will be also useful for similar studies in many other parts of the world as human impacts on landscapes and wildlife continue to increase dramatically.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Pan, T., S. Hou, S. Wu, Y. Liu, X. Zou, A. Herzberger and J. Liu. "Variation of Soil Hydraulic Properties with Alpine Grassland Degradation in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau." Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 2016, (2016): 1-21.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Ouyang, Z., H. Zheng, Y. Xiao, S. Polasky, J. Liu, W. Xu, Q. Wang, L. Zhang, Y. Xiao, E. M. Rao, L. Jiang, F. Lu, X. K. Wang, G. B. Yang, S. H. Gong, B. F. Wu, Y. Zeng, W. Yang and G. C. Daily. "Improvements in Ecosystem Services from Investments in Natural Capital." Science 352, no. 6292 (2016): 1455-1459.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Fang, B. L., Y. Tan, C. B. Li, Y. J. Cao, J. G. Liu, P. J. Schweizer, H. Q. Shi, B. Zhou, H. Chen and Z. L. Hu. "Energy Sustainability under the Framework of Telecoupling." Energy 106, (2016): 253-259.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Vina, A., W. J. McConnell, H. B. Yang, Z. C. Xu and J. G. Liu. "Effects of Conservation Policy on China's Forest Recovery." Science Advances 2, no. 3 (2016).
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Connor, T., V. Hull and J. G. Liu. "Telemetry Research on Elusive Wildlife: A Synthesis of Studies on Giant Pandas." Integrative Zoology 11, no. 4 (2016): 295-307.
• Type: Books Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Liu, Jianguo, Vanessa Hull, Wu Yang, Andres Vina, Xiaodong Chen, Zhiyun Ouyang and Hemin Zhang, eds. Pandas and People: Coupling Human and Natural Systems for Sustainability. Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford Univ Press, 2016.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Liu, Jianguo, Wu Yang and Shuxin Li. "Framing Ecosystem Services in the Telecoupled Anthropocene." Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 14, no. 1 (2016): 27-36.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Vi�a, Andr�s, Wei Liu, Shiqiang Zhou, Jinyan Huang and Jianguo Liu. "Land Surface Phenology as an Indicator of Biodiversity Patterns." Ecological Indicators 64, (2016): 281-288.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Tuanmu, Mao-Ning, Andr�s Vi�a, Wu Yang, Xiaodong Chen, Ashton M. Shortridge and Jianguo Liu. "Effects of Payments for Ecosystem Services on Wildlife Habitat Recovery." Conservation Biology 30, no. 4 (2016): 827-835.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Deines, J. M., X. Liu and J. G. Liu. "Telecoupling in Urban Water Systems: An Examination of Beijing's Imported Water Supply." Water International 41, no. 2 (2016): 251-270.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Liu, Wei, Christine A. Vogt, Frank Lupi, Guangming He, Zhiyun Ouyang and Jianguo Liu. "Evolution of Tourism in a Flagship Protected Area of China." Journal of Sustainable Tourism, (2015): 1-24.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Liu, Jianguo, Vanessa Hull, Junyan Luo, Wu Yang, Wei Liu, Andr�s Vi�a, Christine Vogt, Zhenci Xu, Hongbo Yang, Jindong Zhang, Li An, Xiaodong Chen, Shuxin Li, Zhiyun Ouyang, Weihua Xu and Hemin Zhang. "Multiple Telecouplings and Their Complex Interrelationships." Ecology and Society 20, no. 3 (2015).
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: van Vliet, J., N. R. Magliocca, B. Buchner, E. Cook, J. M. R. Benayas, E. C. Ellis, A. Heinimann, E. Keys, T. M. Lee, J. G. Liu, O. Mertz, P. Meyfroidt, M. Moritz, C. Poeplau, B. E. Robinson, R. Seppelt, K. C. Seto and P. H. Verburg. "Meta-Studies in Land Use Science: Current Coverage and Prospects." Ambio 45, no. 1 (2016): 15-28.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Sun, J., W. B. Wu, H. J. Tang and J. G. Liu. "Spatiotemporal Patterns of Non-Genetically Modified Crops in the Era of Expansion of Genetically Modified Food." Scientific Reports 5, (2015).

Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:Scientific community and general public. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Students have been given opportunities to attend and give presentations at professional meetings. Staff members have attended relevant training courses for further knowledge and skills. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results have been widely disseminated to the general public through global media coverage, such as New York Times, Science 360, NPR, Michigan Radio, WKAR Radio, ABC News, New Scientist, Science Daily, NSF.gov, CCTV, .... What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?I plan to submit a number of research grant proposals, write papers for publication, disseminate research findings to the general public, and give presentations at professional meetings.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected. More than a dozen presentations have been given at national and international conferences as well as other universities (e.g., keynote talk at conference on Landscape Ecology conference held in Alaska). Fifteen papers have been published, in addition to a number of papers which are now in press. We have quantified how different factors (e.g., socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, and ecological) interactively affect wildlife habitat across human-influenced landscapes. The results provide useful information and insight into a better understanding of human-environment interactions. The tools and data generated will be also useful for similar studies in many other parts of the world as human impacts on landscapes and wildlife continue to increase dramatically.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zhang, J., Hull, V., Huang, J., Zhou, S., Xu, W., Yang, H., . . . Liu, J. (2015). Activity patterns of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). Journal of Mammalogy. doi: 10.1093/jmammal/gyv118.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Yang, W., Dietz, T., Kramer, D. B., Ouyang, Z., & Liu, J. (2015). An integrated approach to understanding the linkages between ecosystem services and human well-being. Ecosystem Health and Sustainability, 1(5), art19-art19. doi: 10.1890/EHS15-0001.1.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Liu, J. (2015). Promises and perils for the panda. Science, 348(6235), 642. doi: 10.1126/science.348.6235.642-a.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Hull, V., Zhang, J., Zhou, S., Huang, J., Li, R., Liu, D., . . . Liu, J. (2015). Space use by endangered giant pandas. 96(1), 230-236. doi: 10.1093/jmammal/gyu031.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Li, C., Cao, Y., Zhang, M., Wang, J., Liu, J., Shi, H., & Geng, Y. (2015). Hidden benefits of electric vehicles for addressing climate change. Scientific Reports, 5. doi: 10.1038/srep09213.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Liu, J., Mooney, H., Hull, V., Davis, S. J., Gaskell, J., Hertel, T., . . . Li, S. (2015). Systems integration for global sustainability. Science, 347(6225), 963. doi: 10.1126/science.1258832.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Carter, N., Jasny, M., Gurung, B., & Liu, J. (2015). Impacts of people and tigers on leopard spatiotemporal activity patterns in a global biodiversity hotspot. Global Ecology and Conservation, 3, 149-162. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2014.11.013
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Hull, V., Roloff, G., Zhang, J., Liu, W., Zhou, S., Huang, J., . . . Liu, J. (2014). A synthesis of giant panda habitat selection. Ursus, 25(2), 148-162. doi: 10.2192/URSUS-D-13-00011.1.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Seppelt, R., Manceur, A. M., Liu, J., Fenichel, E. P., & Klotz, S. (2014). Synchronized peak-rate years of global resources use. Ecology and Society, 19(4). doi: 10.5751/ES-07039-190450.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Ma, Z., Melville, D. S., Liu, J., Chen, Y., Yang, H., Ren, W., . . . Li, B. (2014). Rethinking China's new great wall. Science, 346(6212), 912-914. doi: 10.1126/science.1257258.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Liu, J., & Vi�a, A. (2014). Pandas, Plants, and People. Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden, 100(1-2), 108-125. doi: 10.3417/2013040.
• Type: Books Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Liu, Jianguo, Vanessa Hull, and Mao-Ning Tuanmu (guest editors) 2015 Exploring Feedbacks in Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS). Special issue. Ecology and Society.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Hull, Vanessa, Mao-Ning Tuanmu, and Jianguo Liu 2015 Synthesis of human-nature feedbacks. Ecology and Society 20 (3): 17.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zhao, Zhiqiang, Jianguo Liu, Jian Peng, Shuangcheng Li, Yanglin Wang 2015. Nonlinear features and complexity patterns of vegetation dynamics in the transition zone of North China. Ecological Indicators 49: 237-246.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zhao, Zhiqiang, Jianbo Gao, Yanlin Wang, Jianguo Liu, Shuangcheng Li 2015 Exploring spatially variable relationships between NDVI and climatic factors in a transition zone using geographically weighted regression. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 120:507-519.

Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience: Scientific community and general public. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Students have been given opportunities to attend and give presentations at professional meetings. Staff members have attended relevant training courses for further knowledge and skills. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The results have been widely disseminated to the general public through global media coverage, such as Science 360, Red Orbit, Science Daily, Fox News, Discover Magazine, Nature World News, NSF.gov, United Press International. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? I plan to submit a number of research grant proposals, write papers for publication, disseminate research findings to the general public, and give presentations at professional meetings.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected. More than a dozen presentations have been given at national and international conferences as well as other universities (e.g.,keynote talk atconference onLandscape Ecolgy conference held in Alaska).Twelve papers have been published, in addition to a number of papers which are now in press. We have quantified how different factors (e.g., socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, and ecological) interactively affect wildlife habitat across human-influenced landscapes. The results provide useful information and insight into a better understanding of human-environment interactions. The tools and data generated will be also useful for similar studies in many other parts of the world as human impacts on landscapes and wildlife continue to increase dramatically.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Liu J (2014) Forest Sustainability in China and Implications for a Telecoupled World. Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies 1(1):230-250.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Xu W, Vi�a A, Qi Z, Ouyang Z, Liu J, Liu W and Wan H (2014) Evaluating conservation effectiveness of nature reserves established for surrogate species: Case of a giant panda nature reserve in Qinling Mountains, China. Chinese Geographical Science 24(1):60-70.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Chen X, Vi�a A, Shortridge A, An L and Liu J (2014) Assessing the Effectiveness of Payments for Ecosystem Services: an Agent-Based Modeling Approach. Ecology and Society 19(1).
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Bradbury M, Peterson MN and Liu J (2014) Long-term dynamics of household size and their environmental implications. Population and Environment:1-12.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zhang J, Hull V, Huang J, Yang W, Zhou S, Xu W, Huang Y, Ouyang Z, Zhang H and Liu J (2014) Natural recovery and restoration in giant panda habitat after the Wenchuan earthquake. Forest Ecology and Management 319(0):1-9.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Hull V, Zhang J, Zhou S, Huang J, Vi�a A, Liu W, Tuanmu M-N, Li R, Liu D, Xu W, Huang Y, Ouyang Z, Zhang H and Liu J (2014) Impact of livestock on giant pandas and their habitat. Journal for Nature Conservation 22(3):256-264.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Liu J, Hull V, Moran E, Nagendra H, Swaffield SR and Turner II BL (2014) Applications of the telecoupling framework to land-change science. In: Rethinking Global Land Use in an Urban Era, eds Seto KC & Reenberg A (MIT Press), pp 119-139.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Eakin H, DeFries R, Kerr S, Lambin EF, Liu J, Marcotullio PJ, Messerli P, Reenberg A, Rueda X, Swaffield SR, Wicke B and Zimmerer K (2014) Significance of Telecoupling for Exploration of Land-Use Change. In: Rethinking Global Land Use in an Urban Era, eds Seto KC & Reenberg A (MIT Press), pp 141-162.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: He Q, Bertness MD, Bruno JF, Li B, Chen G, Coverdale TC, Altieri AH, Bai J, Sun T, Pennings SC, Liu J, Ehrlich PR and Cui B (2014) Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China. Scientific Reports 4.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Carter NH, Vi�a A, Hull V, McConnell WJ, Axinn W, Ghimire D and Liu J (2014) Coupled human and natural systems approach to wildlife research and conservation. Ecology and Society 19(3).
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zhao Z, J Gao, Y Wang, J Liu and S Li (2014) Exploring spatially variable relationships between NDVI and climatic factors in a transition zone using geographically weighted regression. Theoretical and Applied Climatology: 1-13.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Lynch, Abigail and Jianguo Liu (2014) Fisheries as Coupled Human and Natural Systems. In: Future of Fisheries: Perspectives for Emerging Professionals, eds William W. Taylor, Abigail Lynch, and Nancy Leonard. American Fisheries Society Press.

Progress 01/01/13 to 09/30/13

Outputs
Target Audience: Scientific community and General public. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Students have been given opportunities to attend and give presentations at professional meetings. Staff members have attended relevant training courses for further knowledge and skills. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The results have been widely disseminated to the general public through global media coverage, such as Science 360, Red Orbit, Science Daily, Time, NBC News, Fox News, Popular Science, WSYM-TV. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? I plan to submit a number of research grant proposals, write papers for publication, disseminate research findings to the general public, and give presentations at professional meetings.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected. More than a dozen presentations have been given at national and international conferences as well as other universities (e.g., plenary talk at the Landscape Ecolgy conference held in China). Sixteen papers and one book have been published, in addition to a number of papers which are now in press. We have quantified how different factors (e.g., socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, and ecological) interactively affect wildlife habitat across human-influenced landscapes. The results provide useful information and insight into a better understanding of human-environment interactions. The tools and data generated will be also useful for similar studies in many other parts of the world as human impacts on landscapes and wildlife continue to increase dramatically.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Neil H. Carter, Bhim Gurung, Andr�s Vi�a, Henry Campa III, Jhamak B. Karki, and Jianguo Liu. 2013. Assessing spatiotemporal changes in tiger habitat across different land management regimes. Ecosphere 4:art124. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES13-00191.1.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Liu J, Yang W. 2013. Integrated assessments of payments for ecosystem services programs. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 110(41):16297-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1316036110.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Liu J. 2013. Complex Forces Affect China's Biodiversity. Conservation Biology, (John Wiley & Sons, Ltd), pp 205-215.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Zhu Liu, Dabo Guan, Douglas Crawford-Brown, Qiang Zhang, Kebin He & Jianguo Liu. 2013. A low-carbon road map for China, Nature 500, 143145.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: He G, Zhang L, Mol APJ, Lu Y, & Liu J (2013) Revising China's Environmental Law. Science 341(6142):133.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Carter N, Riley S, Shortridge A, Shrestha B, & Liu J (2013) Spatial Assessment of Attitudes Toward Tigers in Nepal. AMBIO:1-13.DOI:10.1007/s13280-013-0421-7.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Jianguo Liu, Vanessa Hull, Mateus Batistella, Ruth DeFries, Thomas Dietz, Feng Fu, Thomas W. Hertel, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Eric F. Lambin, Shuxin Li, Luiz A. Martinelli, William J. McConnell, Emilio F. Moran, Rosamond Naylor, Zhiyun Ouyang, Karen R. Polenske, Anette Reenberg,Gilberto de Miranda Rocha, Cynthia S. Simmons, Peter H. Verburg, Peter M. Vitousek, Fusuo Zhang and Chunquan Zhu. (2013) Framing Sustainability in a Telecoupled World. Ecology and Society 18(2):26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-05873-180226.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Yang, W., W. Liu, A. Vi�a, M.-N. Tuanmu, G. He, T. Dietz, and J. Liu. 2013. Nonlinear effects of group size on collective action and resource outcomes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.DOI: doi/10.1073/pnas.1301733110.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Yang W, Dietz T, Kramer DB, Chen X, Liu J (2013) Going Beyond the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: An Index System of Human Well-Being. PLoS ONE 8(5): e64582. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0064582.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Yang W, Dietz T, Liu W, Luo J, Liu J (2013) Going Beyond the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: An Index System of Human Dependence on Ecosystem Services. PLoS ONE 8(5): e64581. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0064581.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Liu, J. 2013. Effects of Global Household Proliferation on Ecosystem Services. Pages 103-118 in B. Fu and K. B. Jones, editors. Landscape Ecology for Sustainable Environment and Culture. Springer Netherlands.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Liu, J., C. Zang, S. Tian, J. Liu, H. Yang, S. Jia, L. You, B. Liu, and M. Zhang. 2013. Water conservancy projects in China: Achievements, challenges and way forward. Global Environmental Change 23:633-643.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Liu Jianguo, Ouyang Zhiyun, Yang Wu, Xu Weihua, and Li Shuxin (2013) Evaluation of Ecosystem Service Policies from Biophysical and Social Perspectives: The Case of China. In: Levin S.A. (ed.) Encyclopedia of Biodiversity, second edition, Volume 3, pp. 372-384. Waltham, MA: Academic Press.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Li, Y., A. Vina, W. Yang, X. D. Chen, J. D. Zhang, Z. Y. Ouyang, Z. Liang, and J. G. Liu. 2013. Effects of conservation policies on forest cover change in giant panda habitat regions, China. Land Use Policy 33:42-53.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Hummel, D., S. Adamo, A. Sherbinin, L. Murphy, R. Aggarwal, L. Zulu, J. Liu, and K. Knight. 2013. Inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to populationenvironment research for sustainability aims: a review and appraisal. Population and Environment 34:481-509.
• Type: Books Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Peterson, M. N., T. R. Peterson, and J. Liu. 2013. The Housing Bomb: Why our addiction to houses is destroying the environment and threatening our society. The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.

Progress 01/01/12 to 12/31/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: In the past year, my students/collaborators and I have received several renewal grants (from NASA and NSF). More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected. More than a dozen presentations have been given at national and international conferences as well as other universities (e.g., plenary talk at the international conference held at the Australia National University). Eleven papers (see the list below) have been published, in addition to a number of papers which are now in press. We have quantified how different factors (e.g., socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, and ecological) interactively affect wildlife habitat across human-influenced landscapes. The results provide useful information and insight into a better understanding of human-environment interactions. The tools and data generated will be also useful for similar studies in many other parts of the world as human impacts on landscapes and wildlife continue to increase dramatically. PARTICIPANTS: Jianguo Liu, Principal Investigator, MSU; Neil Carter, Graduate Student, MSU; Xiaodong Chen, Graduate Student, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill; Vanessa Hull, Graduate Student, MSU; Mao-Ning Tuanmu, Graduate Student, Yale University; Wei Liu, Graduate Student, IIASA, Austria; James Millington, Postdoc associate, King's College London, UK; Wu Yang, Graduate Student, MSU; Andres Vina, Assistant Professor, MSU; Shuxin Li, Research Assistant, MSU; Junyan Luo, Research Associate, MSU; Jindong Zhang, Research Associate, MSU. TARGET AUDIENCES: Scientific community and General public. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Our work on coupled human and natural systems has received global news media coverage and has provided information for policy development as well as discussion among the general public globally. I served on editorial boards of a number of international journals (including Science) and served as a reviewer for many other journals (e.g., PNAS) and funding agencies (e.g., NSF).

Publications

• Chen, X., Peterson, M., Hull, V., Lu, C., Hong, D. and Liu, J. (2012). How perceived exposure to environmental harm influences environmental behavior in urban China. Ambio, DOI 10.1007/s13280-13012-10335-13289.
• Carter, N., Shrestha, B., Karki, J., Pradhan, N. and Liu, J. (2012). Coexistence between wildlife and humans at fine spatial scales. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109: 15360-15365, doi:10.1073/pnas.1210490109.
• Carter, N. H., Riley, S. J. and Liu, J. (2012). Utility of a psychological framework for carnivore conservation. Oryx 46: 525-535, doi:10.1017/s0030605312000245.
• Liu, J. and Yang, W. (2012). Water Sustainability for China and Beyond. Science 337: 649-650, doi:10.1126/science.1219471.
• Vina, A., Chen, X., Yang, W., Liu, W., Li, Y., Ouyang, Z., and Liu J. (2012). Improving the efficiency of conservation policies with the use of surrogates derived from remotely sensed and ancillary data. Ecological Indicators 26:103-111, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.10.020.
• Millington, J., Walters, M., Matonis, M. and Liu, J. (2012). Modelling for forest management synergies and trade-offs: Northern hardwood tree regeneration, timber and deer. Ecological Modelling 248: 103-112.
• Vina, A., Tuanmu, M-N., Xu, W. H., Li, Y., Qi, J., Ouyang, Z. and Liu, J. (2012). Relationship between floristic similarity and vegetated land surface phenology: Implications for the synoptic monitoring of species diversity at broad geographic regions. Remote Sens Environ 121: 488-496, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2012.02.013.
• Tuanmu, M-N., Vina, A., Winkler, J. A., Li, Y., Xu, W., Ouyang, Z. and Liu, J. (2012). Climate-change impacts on understorey bamboo species and giant pandas in China Qinling Mountains. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1727, doi:10.1038/nclimate1727.
• Liu, W., Vogt, C., Luo, J., He, G., Frank, K. and Liu, J. (2012). Drivers and socioeconomic impacts of tourism participation in protected areas. Plos One 7, doi:e3542010.1371/journal.pone.0035420.
• Hummel, D., Adamo, S., de Sherbinin, A., Murphy, L., Aggarwal, R., Zulu, L., Liu, J. and Knight, K. (2012). Inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to population-environment research for sustainability aims: a review and appraisal. Population & Environment, 1-29, doi:10.1007/s11111-012-0176-2.
• Chen, X., Frank, K, Dietz, T. and Liu, J. (2012). Weak ties, labor migration, and environmental impacts: Toward a sociology of sustainability. Organization and Environment 25: 3-24, doi:10.1177/1086026611436216.

Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11

Outputs
OUTPUTS: In the past year, my students/collaborators and I have received several new or renewal grants (from NASA and NSF). More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected. More than a dozen presentations have been given at national and international conferences as well as other universities (e.g., keynote address at a NSF funded LTER All Scientists meeting and named lecture at the University of Florida). Eight papers, one book, two book chapters, and three book sections (see the list below) have been published, in addition to a number of papers which are now in press. We have quantified how different factors (e.g., socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, and ecological) interactively affect wildlife habitat across human-influenced landscapes. The results provide useful information and insight into a better understanding of human-environment interactions. The tools and data generated will be also useful for similar studies in many other parts of the world as human impacts on landscapes and wildlife continue to increase dramatically. PARTICIPANTS: Jianguo Liu, Principal Investigator, MSU; Neil Carter, Graduate Student, MSU; Xiaodong Chen, Graduate Student, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill; Vanessa Hull, Graduate Student, MSU; Mao-Ning Tuanmu, Graduate Student, MSU; Wei Liu, Graduate Student, MSU; James Millington, Postdoc associate, King's College London, UK; Wu Yang, Graduate Student, MSU; Andres Vina, Academic Specialist, MSU; Shuxin Li, Research Assistant, MSU; Junyan Luo, Research Associate, MSU. TARGET AUDIENCES: Scientific community and General public. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Our work on coupled human and natural systems has received global news media coverage and has provided information for policy development as well as discussion among the general public globally. I served on editorial boards of a number of international journals (including Science) and served as a reviewer for many other journals (e.g., PNAS) and funding agencies (e.g., NSF).

Publications

• Liu, J., V. Hull, A. Morzillo, J. Wiens. (editors). 2011 Sources, Sinks, and Sustainability. Cambridge University Press.
• Peterson, M.N., A. Lopez, A. Mertig, J. Liu. 2011. Assessing views of wildlife ownership in United States, Mexico borderlands. Society and Natural Resources 24:962-971.
• Hull, Vanessa, Weihua Xu, Wei Liu, Shiqiang Zhou, Andres Vina, Jindong Zhang, Mao-Ning Tuanmu, Jinyan Huang, Marc Linderman, Xiaodong Chen, Yan Huang, Zhiyun Ouyang, Hemin Zhang, Jianguo Liu 2011. Evaluating the efficacy of zoning designations for protected area management. Biological Conservation 10.1016/j.biocon.2011.09.007 (Featured in the news media).
• Chen, Xiaodong, Frank Lupi, Li An, Ryan Sheely, Andres Vina, Jianguo Liu 2011. Agent-based modeling of the effects of social norms on enrollment in payments for ecosystem services. Ecological Modelling 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.06.007.
• Millington, James D.A., Michael B. Walters, Megan S. Matonis, Edward J. Laurent, Kimberly R. Hall, Jianguo Liu 2011 Combined long-term effects of variable tree regeneration and timber management on forest songbirds and timber production. Forest Ecology and Management (10.1016/j.foreco.2011.05.002). (Featured in the news media).
• Chen, X., N. Peterson, V. Hull, C. Lu, G. Lee, D. Hong, and J. Liu. 2011. Effects of attitudinal and socio-demographic factors on pro-environmental behavior in urban China. Environmental Conservation (DOI: 10.1017/S037689291000086X (Featured in the news media).
• An, Li, Marc Linderman, Guangming He, Zhiyun Ouyang, and Jianguo Liu 2011 Long-Term Ecological Effects of Demographic and Socioeconomic Factors in Wolong Nature Reserve (China). Pp 179-195 In R.P. Cincotta and L.J. Gorenflo (eds.), Human Population: Its Influences on Biological Diversity. Springer-Verlag. Berlin.
• Tuanmu M-N, Vina A, G. Roloff, W. Liu, Z. Ouyang, H. Zhang and J. Liu. 2011. Temporal transferability of wildlife habitat models based on satellite-derived land surface phenology and its implications for habitat monitoring. Journal of Biogeography doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02479.x.
• Hull, V., A. Morzillo, J. Liu 2011. Impacts of a classic paper by H. Ronald Pulliam: The first 20 years. Pp.3-17, In "Sources, Sinks, and Sustainability" (eds. J. Liu, V. Hull, A. Morzillo, and J. Wiens), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
• Zhang, J., V. Hull, W. Xu, J. Liu, Z. Ouyang, J. Huang, X. Wang, and R. Li. 2011 Impact of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on biodiversity and giant panda habitat in Wolong Nature Reserve, China. Ecological Research 26:523-531.
• Liu, J. Hull, V., A. Morzillo, J. Wiens 2011 Advances in Source-Sink Theory. Pp.19-21, In "Sources, Sinks, and Sustainability" (eds. J. Liu, V. Hull, A. Morzillo, and J. Wiens), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
• Liu, J. Hull, V., A. Morzillo, J. Wiens 2011 Progress in Source-Sink Methodology. Pp.179-181, In "Sources, Sinks, and Sustainability" (eds. J. Liu, V. Hull, A. Morzillo, and J. Wiens), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
• Liu, J. Hull, V., A. Morzillo, J. Wiens 2011 Improvement of Source-Sink Management. Pp.335-338, In "Sources, Sinks, and Sustainability" (eds. J. Liu, V. Hull, A. Morzillo, and J. Wiens), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Progress 01/01/10 to 12/31/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: PROGRESS: 2010/01 TO 2010/12 In the past year, my students/collaborators and I have received several new or renewal grants,from NASA and NSF. More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected. More than a dozen presentations have been given at national and international conferences as well as other universities. Twelve papers,see the list below, have been published, in addition to a number of papers and an edited book which are now in press. We have quantified how different factors, e.g., socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, and ecological, interactively affect wildlife habitat across human-influenced landscapes. The results provide useful information and insight into a better understanding of human-environment interactions. The tools ,e.g., models, and data generated will be also useful for similar studies in many other parts of the world as human impacts on landscapes and wildlife continue to increase dramatically. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
IMPACT: 2010/01 TO 2010/12 Our work on coupled human and natural systems has received global news media coverage and has provided information for policy development ,and an insurance company for developing environmentally friendly and economic mechanisms to deliver documents, as well as discussion among the general public globally. I served on editorial boards of a number of international journals and served as a reviewer for many other journals and funding agencies, and served as President, 2008-2010, US-IALE, US Regional Association, International Association for Landscape Ecology. I also received a number of recognition, such as Certificate of Appreciation for Outstanding Service by US-IALE and Honorary Professor from Lanzhou University of China. In addition, I delivered two keynote speeches at two international meetings.

Publications

• Morzillo, Anita, Joseph R. Ferrari, Jianguo Liu. 2010. An integration of habitat evaluation, individual based modeling, and graph theory for a potential black bear population recovery in southeastern Texas, USA. Landscape Ecology DOI 10.1007/s10980-010-9536-4.
• Morzillo, Anita; Angela Mertig, Jeffrey Hollister, Nathan Garner, and Jianguo Liu. 2010. Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Local Support for Black Bear Recovery Strategies. Environmental Management 45:1299-1311.
• An, L. and J. Liu. 2010. Long-Term Effects of Family Planning and Other Determinants of Fertility on Population and Environment: Agent-Based Modeling Evidence from Wolong Nature Reserve, China. Population and Environment 31:427-459.
• Vina, Andres, Xiaodong Chen, William McConnell, Wei Liu, Weihua Xu, Zhiyun Ouyang, Hemin Zhang, and Jianguo Liu Effects of natural disasters on conservation policies: The case of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, China. Ambio, DOI: 10.1007/s13280-010-0098-0.
• Tuanmu, M.N., A. Vina, S. Bearer, W. Xu, Z. Ouyang, H. Zhang and J. Liu. 2010. Mapping understory vegetation using phenological characteristics derived from remotely sensed data. Remote Sensing of Environment. 114: 1833-1844
• Millington, J., M.B. Walters, M. S Matonis, J. Liu, 2010 Effects of local and regional landscape characteristics on wildlife distribution across managed forests. Forest Ecology and Management 259:1102-1110
• Vina, Andres, Mao-Ning Tuanmu, Weihua Xu, Yu Li, Zhiyun Ouyang, Ruth DeFries, and Jianguo Liu 2010. Range-wide analysis of the giant panda habitat: Implications for conservation. Biological Conservation 143: 1960-1969.
• PUBLICATIONS not previously reported: 2010/01 TO 2010/12
• Liu, Jianguo. 2010. China's road to sustainability. Science 328:50.
• Liu, Jianguo. 2010. Sustainability A Household Word. Science 329:512.
• Bawa, Kamaljit S., Lian Pin Koh, Tien Ming Lee, Jianguo Liu, P.S. Ramakrishnan, Douglas W. Yu, Ya-ping Zhang, and Peter H. Raven. 2010. China, India, and the Environment. Science 327, 1457-1459.
• Liu, Jianguo and Peter Raven. 2010. China's environmental challenges and implications for the world. Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology 40,9: 823 - 851.

Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: In the past year, my students/collaborators and I received several new or renewal grants (from NASA, NSF and USDA). More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected. We have quantified how different factors (e.g., socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, and ecological) interactively affect wildlife habitat across human-influenced landscapes. The results provide useful information and insight into a better understanding of human-environment interactions. The tools (e.g., models) and data generated will be also useful for similar studies in many other parts of the world as human impacts on landscapes and wildlife continue to increase dramatically. Six papers (see the list below) have been published, in addition to a number of papers which are now in press. A complexity symposium was organized with presentations from 17 leading researchers from around the world. A workshop on human-nature system was organized with participation of 90 people. A book is being edited for publication by Cambridge University Press. The NASA-MSU program supported 21 students and the CHANS Fellows program supported 14 junior scholars to attend the US-IALE conference. PARTICIPANTS: Jack Liu, PI TARGET AUDIENCES: State/federal policymakers and academics PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Our work on social norms and ecosystems services has received global news media coverage. I served as an editor for PNAS and on editorial boards of nine international journals and served as a reviewer for many other journals and funding agencies, and have been serving as President (2008-2010), US-IALE (US Regional Association, International Association for Landscape Ecology). In addition, I delivered a keynote speech at the Congress of the Ecological Society of China. I was also invited to give lectures at such institutions as Princeton University, Duke University, and University of Michigan at Ann Arbor. A number of presentations were given at national and international conferences, such as US-IALE.

Publications

• Chen, X., F. Lupi, G. He, and J. Liu. 2009. Linking social norms to efficient conservation investment in payments for ecosystem services. PNAS 106: 11812-11817. doi:10.1073/pnas.0809980106. (News release by NSF, and media coverage in US Today, UPI, etc.)
• Liu, J. and M. Matsler. 2009. China's environment and globalization: Unexpected connections. Pp. 29-44. in Lectures on China's Environment (X. Lee, ed.). Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies. New Haven, CT.
• DeFries, Ruth, Francesco Rovero, Patricia Wright, Jorge Ahumada, Sandy Andelman, Katrina Brandon, Jan Dempewolf, Andrew Hansen, Jenny Hewson, Jianguo Liu. 2009. Linking Plot-level Biodiversity Measurements with Human Influences over Multiple Spatial Scales in the Tropics: A Conceptual Framework. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment (doi: 10.1890/080104).
• He, G., X. Chen, S. Bearer, M. Colunga, A. Mertig, L. An, S. Zhou, M. Linderman, Z. Ouyang, S. Gage, S. Li, and J. Liu. 2009. Spatial and temporal patterns of fuelwood collection. Landscape and Urban Planning 92: 1-9.
• Morzillo, A. T., A. G. Mertig, N. Garner, J. Liu. 2009 Evaluating hunter support for Black Bear restoration. Human Dimensions of Wildlife 14(6): 1-12.
• Chen, X., F. Lupi, G. He, Z. Ouyang, and J. Liu. 2009. Factors affecting land reconversion plans following a payment for ecosystem service program. Biological Conservation 142: 1740-1747.

Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: In the past year, my students/collaborators and I received several new or renewal grants (from NASA, NSF, USDA). More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected. We have quantified how different factors (e.g., socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, and ecological) interactively affect wildlife habitat across human-influenced landscapes. The results provide useful information and insight into a better understanding of human-environment interactions. The tools (e.g., models) and data generated will be also useful for similar studies in many other parts of the world as human impacts on landscapes and wildlife continue to increase dramatically. Fourteen papers (see the list below) have been published, in addition to a number of papers which are now in press. A symposium on sources, sinks, and sustainability was organized with presentations from nearly 30 leading researchers from around the world. A book based on this symposium is being edited for publication by Cambridge University Press. PARTICIPANTS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Our work on environmental policies (e.g., natural forest conservation program) has received global news media coverage and has provided information for policy development and discussion among the general public globally. I served on editorial boards of seven international journals and served as a reviewer for many other journals and funding agencies, and have been serving as President (2008-2010), US-IALE (US Regional Association, International Association for Landscape Ecology). In addition, I delivered keynote speeches at the International Conference on Landscape Ecology and Forest Management (sponsored by International Union of Forest Research Organization) and the K-12 Workshop on Anthropogenic Influences on Wildlife (sponsored by the National Science Foundation). I was also invited to give 9 lectures at such institutions as Harvard University, Yale University, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, and Peking University (China). A number of presentations were given at national and international conferences, such as American Association for the Advancement of Science, US-IALE, and National Council for Science and the Environment.

Publications

• Rindfuss, Ronald R., Barbara Entwisle, Stephen J. Walsh, Li An, Nathon Badenoch, Daniel G. Brown, Peter Deadman, Tom P. Evans, Jefferson Fox, Jacqueline Geoghegan, Myron Gutmann, Maggi Kelly, Marc Linderman, Jianguo Liu, George P. Malanson, Carlos F. Mena,Joseph P. Messina, Emilio F. Moran, Dawn C. Parker, William Parton, Pramote Prasartkul, Derek T. Robinson, Yothin Sawangdee, Leah K. Vanwey and Peter H. Verburg (2008) Journal of Land Use Science, 3, 1-10
• Peterson, M.N. and J. Liu Property Rights and Landscape Planning in the Intermountain West: the Teton Valley Case (2008), Landscape and Urban Planning, 86, 126-133
• He, G., X. Chen, W. Liu, S. Bearer, S. Zhou, L. Cheng, H. Zhang, Z. Ouyang, J. Liu (2008) Distribution of Economic Benefits from Ecotourism, Environmental Management, 42 (6), 1017-1025
• Liu, J, J. Diamond (2008) Revolutionizing China's environmental protection, Science, 319, 46-47
• Liu, J, S. Li, Z. Ouyang, C. Tam, X. Chen (2008) Ecological and socioeconomic effects of China's policies for ecosystem services, Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences USA, 105, 9477-9482
• Liu, J (2008) Integrate Disciplines, Nature, 454, 401
• Liu, J, J. Diamond (2008) Policy Forum offered new ideas, Science, 321, 639
• Peterson, M.N., J. Liu (2008) Evaluating impacts of religion on environmental worldviews, Society and Natural Resources, 21, 704-718
• Lepczyk, C., C. Flather, V. Radeloffl, A. Pidgeon, R. Hammer, J. Liu (2008) Human Impacts on Regional Avian Diversity and Abundance, Conservation Biology, 22 (2), 405-416
• Peterson, M.N., X. Chen, J. Liu (2008) Household location choices: implications for biodiversity conservation, Conservation Biology, 22, 912-921
• Peterson, M.N., M. Sternberg, A. Lopez, and J. Liu (2008) Ocelot Awareness among Latinos on the Texas and Tamaulipas Border. Human Dimensions of Wildlife: An International Journal, 13, 339-347
• Bearer, S.L., M. Linderman, J. Huang, L. An, G. He, and J. Liu (2008) Effects of Fuelwood Collection and Timber Harvesting on Giant Panda Habitat Use. Biological Conservation, 141, 385-393
• Peterson, M.N., V. Hull, A. Mertig, and J. Liu (2008) Evaluating household level relationships between environmental views and outdoor recreation: the Teton Valley case. Leisure Science, 30, 293-305
• Vina, A., S. Bearer, H. Zhang, Z. Ouyang and J. Liu (2008) Evaluating MODIS data for mapping wildlife habitat distribution. Remote Sensing of Environment, 112, 2160-2169

Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07

Outputs
In the past year, my students/collaborators and I have received several new or renewal grants (from NASA, NSF, USDA). More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected. A dozen presentations have been given at national and international conferences as well as other universities. Nine papers (see the list below) have been published, in addition to a number of papers which are now in press. We have quantified how different factors (e.g., socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, and ecological) interactively affect wildlife habitat across human-influenced landscapes. The results provide useful information and insight into a better understanding of human-environment interactions. The tools (e.g., models) and data generated will be also useful for similar studies in many other parts of the world as human impacts on landscapes and wildlife continue to increase dramatically.

Impacts
Our work on coupled human and natural systems (e.g., environmental impacts of divorce) has received global media coverage and has provided information for policy development and discussion among the general public globally. I served on editorial boards of eight international journals and served as a reviewer for many other journals and funding agencies, and was elected President-elect (2007-2008) and President (2008-2010), US-IALE (US Regional Association, International Association for Landscape Ecology). I also received a number of recognition, such as Certificate of Appreciation for Outstanding Service (National Research Council of The National Academies) and Ralph H. Smuckler Award for Advancing International Studies and Programs (Michigan State University). In addition, I delivered a keynote speech at Ecosummit (an international conference on ecological complexity and sustainability), which was attended by more than 1,400 people from around the world.

Publications

• Liu, Jianguo, Thomas Dietz, Stephen R. Carpenter, Marina Alberti, Carl Folke, Emilio Moran, Alice N. Pell, Peter Deadman, Timothy Kratz, Jane Lubchenco, Elinor Ostrom, Zhiyun Ouyang, William Provencher, Charles L. Redman, Stephen H. Schneider, William W. Taylor. 2007. Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science 317: 1513-1516.
• Liu, Jianguo, Thomas Dietz, Stephen R. Carpenter, Carl Folke, Marina Alberti, Charles L. Redman, Stephen H. Schneider, Elinor Ostrom, Alice N. Pell, Jane Lubchenco, William W. Taylor, Zhiyun Ouyang, Peter Deadman, Timothy Kratz, William Provencher. 2007. Coupled human and natural systems. Ambio 36:639-649.
• Yu, E. and J. Liu. 2007. Environmental impacts of divorce. Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences USA 104: 20629-20634.
• Morzillo, A. T., A. G. Mertig, N. Garner, J. Liu. 2007. Resident attitudes toward black bears and population recovery in East Texas. Human Dimensions of Wildlife 12:417-428.
• Taylor, W.W., S. Oh, N.J. Leonard, J. Liu, T. Dobson, Z. Ouyang, and R. M. Bratspies. 2007. The impact of water security on freshwater fisheries management: A multinational perspective. American Fisheries Society Symposium 49:587-595.
• Peterson, M.N., M.J. Peterson, T.R. Peterson, and J. Liu. 2007. A household perspective for biodiversity conservation. J. of Wildlife Management 71:1243-1248.
• Vina, Andres, Scott Bearer, Xiaodong Chen, Guangming He, Marc Linderman, Li An, Hemin Zhang, Zhiyun Ouyang, and Jianguo Liu. 2007. Temporal Changes in Connectivity of Giant Panda Habitat Across the Boundaries of Wolong Nature Reserve (China). Ecological Applications 17:1019-1030.
• Morzillo, A. T., A. G. Mertig, N. Garner, J. Liu 2007. Spatial Distribution of Attitudes toward Proposed Management Strategies for a Wildlife Reintroduction. Human Dimensions of Wildlife 12:15-29.
• DeFries, R., Hansen, A., Reid, R., Turner, B., Liu, J. 2007. Land use change around protected areas: Management opportunities to balance human needs with ecological function. Ecological Applications 17:1031-1038.

Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/06

Outputs
In the past year, my students/collaborators and I have received several new or renewal grants (from NASA, NSF, USDA). More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected. A dozen presentations have been given at national and international conferences as well as other universities. Five papers (see the list below) have been published, in addition to a number of papers which are now in press. We have quantified how different factors (e.g., socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, and ecological) interactively affect wildlife habitat across human-influenced landscapes. The results provide useful information and insight into a better understanding of human-wildlife interactions. The tools (e.g., models) and data generated will be also useful for similar studies in many other parts of the world as human impacts on landscapes and wildlife continue to increase dramatically.

Impacts
Our work on wildlife habitat as well as globalization and environmental impacts has continued to receive international media coverage and provide information for policy development. I served on an international advisory board China International Council on Environment and Development and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Committee on Independent Scientific Review of Everglades Restoration Progress (the committee was established to meet the congressional mandate and to monitor the $10.3 billion restoration project in the Everglades.) and our report to Congress was well received by Congress, stakeholders, and the media. I also served on editorial boards of six international journals and have served as a reviewer for many other journals. I was given several awards, including Guggenheim Fellowship Award, Outstanding Paper Award, and Distinguished Service Award of the U.S. Regional Association of the International Association for Landscape Ecology.

Publications

• Xu, W., Z. Ouyang, A. Vina, H. Zheng, J. Liu, Y. Xiao. 2006. Designing a conservation plan for protecting the habitat for the Giant Pandas in the Qionglai Mountain Range, China. Biodiversity and Distributions 12 (5): 610-619.
• Linderman, M., S. Bear, L. An, G. He, Z. Ouyang, and J. Liu. 2006 Interactive effects of natural and human disturbances on vegetation dynamics across landscapes. Ecological Applications 16: 452-463.
• Shi, H., L. Zhang, and J. Liu. 2006. A new spatial-attribute weighting function for geographically weighted regression. Canadian Journal of Forestry Research 36: 996-1005.
• An, L., G. He, Z. Liang, and J. Liu. 2006 Impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on spatio-temporal dynamics of panda habitats. Biodiversity and Conservation 15:2343-2363.
• Reid, Robin S., Thomas P. Tomich, Jianchu Xu, Helmut Geist, Eric Lambin, Ruth S. De Fries, Jiangho Liu, Diogenes Alves, Babatunde Agbola, Abha Chabbra, Alexander Mather, Tom Veldcamp, Kasper Kok, Meine van Noordwijk, David Thomas, Cheryl Palm, Peter Verburg. 2006. Linking land change science and policy: current lessons and future integration (Chapter 7). In Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Local Processes and Global Impacts (E. F. Lambin and H. Geist, eds.). pp. 175-204. Springer (Global Change - The IGBP Series).

Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/05

Outputs
In the past year, my students, collaborators and I have received several new or renewal grants (from NIH, NASA, DOE, and Chinas National Natural Science Foundation). More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Idaho, Florida, Texas, and China. The general research objectives are to (A) develop systems models which integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors; (B) provide information for decision-makers and wildlife managers to design long-term management plans; and (C) understand mechanisms of biodiversity dynamics. A dozen presentations have been given at national and international conferences as well as other universities.

Impacts
Our work on globalization and environmental impacts (published as a cover-story paper in Nature) has received international media coverage and its translation has been published in mainland China and Taiwan. Chinas State Environmental Protection Administration is planning to use some of the ideas in our Nature paper for national environmental planning and policy development. I have been invited to serve on a high-level international advisory board China International Council on Environment and Development. Also, I am serving on Advisory Council on Giant Panda Research and Conservation initiated by U.S.-China Environment Fund. I am continuing to serve on the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Committee on Independent Scientific Review of Everglades Restoration Progress (the committee was established to meet the congressional mandate and to monitor the $10.3 billion restoration project in the Everglades.) and our report to Congress is due summer, 2006. I organized a well-received symposium at the annual meetings of the Ecological Society of America and International Association for Ecology. I am also serving on editorial boards of seven international journals and have served as a reviewer for many other journals including Science. I have been given a prestigious fellowship by Landcare (the primary research organization in New Zealand) and have been invited to visit New Zealand in 2006 to provide advice for their projects on household dynamics, biodiversity, modeling, and land use.

Publications

• Peterson, N., A. Mertig, and J. Liu. 2005. Effects of zoonotic disease attributes on public attitudes toward wildlife management. Journal of Wildlife Management. Accepted.
• Laurent, E., J. Lebouton, H. Shi, M. Walters, and J. Liu. 2005. Using the spatial and spectral precision of satellite imagery to predict wildlife occurrence patterns. Remote Sensing of Environment 97:249-262
• Ma, Z. and J. Liu. 2005. Peer review and responses. Pp. 223-237. In Chen, J., B. Li, Z. Ma, and B. Zhao, eds. 2005. Challenges Facing Ecologists: Questions and Approaches, HigherEducation Press, Beijing, China.
• Shi, H., E. J. Laurent, J. LeBouton, L. Racevskis, K. R. Hall, M. Donovan, R.V. Doepker, M. B. Walters, F. Lupi and J.Liu. 2005. Local Spatial Modeling of White-Tailed Deer Distribution. Ecological Modelling. 190:171-189.
• Liu, J., L. An, S. S. Batie, S. Bearer, X. Chen, R. E. Groop, G. He, Z. Liang, M. A. Linderman, A. G. Mertig, Z. Ouyang, J.Qi, H. Zhang, S. Zhou. 2005. Beyond Population Size: Examining intricate Interactions among Population Structure, Land Use, and Environment in Wolong Nature Reserve. China. In: Population, Land Use, and Environment - Research Directions.Report of the National Research Council, Barbara Entwisle and Paul Stern, editors, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC; pages 217-237.
• Shi, H., L. Zhang, and J. Liu. 2005. Modeling Spatial-Attribute Impacts of Neighboring Trees. Canadian Journal of Forestry Research.In press.
• Ehrlich, P.R. and J. Liu. Socioeconomic and Demographic Roots of Terrorism. 2005. In J. Forest,ed. The Making of a Terrorist: Recruitment, Training and Root Causes, Vol 3. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishing. pp. 160-172, Volume 3.
• Liu, J. and J. Diamond. 2005. Chinas environment in a globalizing world. Nature 435:1179-1186 Cover-story paper, and accompanied by a News Feature article, p.1152.
• Liu, J. and J. Diamond. 2005. Chinas environment in a globalizing world. Version of Traditional Chinese based on the Nature paper. Knowledge Review. Taiwan, August.
• Liu, J. and J. Diamond. 2005. Chinas environment in a globalizing world. Version of Simplified Chinese based on the Nature paper. World Environment. Beijing, October.
• Liu, J. and J. Diamond. 2005. Chinas environment in a globalizing world. Version of Simplified Chinese based on the Nature paper. Ecological Society of China, Beijing.
• Liu, J. and J. Diamond. 2005. Chinas environment in a globalizing world. Version of Simplified Chinese based on the Nature paper, Chinas Environmental Report 2005, Friends of Nature. In press.
• Linderman, M., S. Bear, L. An, G. He, Z. Ouyang, and J. Liu. 2005. Interactive Effects of Natural and Human Disturbances on Bamboo and Forests in a Giant Panda Reserve. Ecological Applications. In press.
• Xu, W., Z. Ouyang, A. Vina, H. Zheng, J. Liu, Y. Xiao. 2005. Designing a conservation plan for protecting the habitat for the Giant Pandas in the Qionglai Mountain Range, China.Biodiversity and Distributions. In press.
• An, L., M. Linderman, A. Shortridge, J. Qi, and J. Liu. 2005. Exploring Complexity in a Human Environment System: An Agent-based Spatial Model for Multidisciplinary and Multiscale Integration. Annals of the Association of American Geographers. 95:54-79.
• Linderman, M.A., L. An, S. Bearer, G. He, Z. Ouyang and J. Liu. 2005 Modeling the spatio-temporal dynamics and interactions of households, landscape, and giant panda habitat. Ecological Modelling 183,1: 47-65.
• An, L., G. He, Z. Liang, and J. Liu. 2005 Impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on spatio-temporal dynamics of panda habitats. Biodiversity and Conservation. In press.
• Shi, H., Zhang, L. and Liu, J. 2005 Incorporating Spatial Space and Attribute Space into Geographically Weighted Regression. In Proceedings of GeoComputation. University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI. August 1-3, 2005.

Progress 01/01/04 to 12/31/04

Outputs
In the past year, my students/collaborators and I have received several new or renewal grants (from NIH, NASA, National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, Canon/AAAS, and China's National Natural Science Foundation). More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Idaho, Florida, Texas, and China. The general research objectives are to (A) develop systems models which integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors; (B) provide information for decision-makers and wildlife managers to design long-term management plans; and (C) understand mechanisms of biodiversity dynamics. A total of 21 presentations (including 11 invited talks) have been given at national and international conferences as well as other universities.

Impacts
Our work on household dynamics has been included in a report of U.S. National Research Council that highlights new frontiers for future research on population-environment interactions. Our work on biodiversity conservation has been used as background paper by the Chinese government to draft new laws on nature reserves. The U.S. National Academy of Sciences has invited me to serve on the Committee on Independent Scientific Review of Everglades Restoration Progress (the committee was established to meet the congressional mandate and to monitor the $8 billion restoration project in the Everglades.) I organized three well-received symposia at the annual meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the Ecological Society of America, and the Population Association of America. I am also serving on editorial boards of seven international journals and have served as a reviewer for many other journals including Science.

Publications

• Lepczyk, C.A., Mertig, A.G., Liu, J. 2004. Assessing landowner activities related to birds across rural-to-urban landscapes. Environmental Management 33(1):110-125. (highlighted on the cover).
• Linderman, M., Liu, J., An, L., Ouyang, Z.,Yang, J., Tan, Y. 2004. Using Artificial Neural Networks to Map the Spatial Distribution of Understory Bamboo from Remote Sensing Data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 25:1685-1700.
• Liu, J., Ouyang, Z., Zhang, H., Linderman, M., An, L., Bearer, S., He, G. 2004. A New Paradigm for Panda Research and Conservation: Integrating Ecology with Human Demography, Behavior, and Socioeconomics. In: Giant Panda: Conservation Priorities for the 21st Century. (Donald G. Lindburg and Karen Baragona, editors; University of California Press, Berkeley).

Progress 01/01/03 to 12/31/03

Outputs
In the past year, my students/collaborators and I have received several grants (from USDA NRI, NASA, National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, and Western National Parks Association). More ecological and socioeconomic data have been collected in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Texas, and China. A total of 19 presentations (including 11 invited talks, keynote speeches, endowed lecture) have been given at national and international conferences as well as other universities. The general research objectives are to (A) develop systems models which integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors; (B) provide information for decision-makers and wildlife managers to design long-term management plans; and (C) understand mechanisms of biodiversity dynamics.

Impacts
Human population size and growth rate are often considered important drivers of biodiversity loss, while household dynamics are usually neglected. In a cover-story paper published in Nature, we found that growth in household numbers globally, and particularly in biodiversity hotspots (areas rich in endemic species and threatened by human activities), was more rapid than aggregate population growth between 1985 and 2000. Even where population size declined, the number of households increased substantially. Had average household size (i.e., the number of occupants) remained static, there would have been 155 million fewer households in hotspot countries in 2000. Reduction in average household size alone will add a projected 233 million additional households to hotspot countries from 2000-2015. Rapid increase in household numbers, often manifested as urban sprawl, and resultant higher per-capita resource consumption in smaller households pose serious challenges to biodiversity conservation. The findings have generated huge amounts of media coverage around the world. The National Science Foundation has included this paper as one of the 2003 Highlights. The National Institutes of Health was planning to use this paper as one of the Scientific Advances for NIH Congressional Budget Justification.

Publications

• Liu, J., O. Zhiyun, S.L. Pimm, P.H. Raven, X. Wang, H. Miao, and N. Han. 2003. Protecting China's biodiversity. Science 300:1240-1241.
• Liu, J. 2003. SARS, Wildlife, and Human Health. Science 302:53.
• Liu, J. and J. Diamond. 2003. China's environment in a globalizing world. Nature (in revision).
• An, L., A. G. Mertig, and J. Liu. 2003. Adolescents' Leaving Parental Home -- Psychosocial Correlates and Implications for Conservation. Population and Environment 24:415-444.
• Lepczyk, C. A., A. Mertig, and J. Liu. 2003. Assessing landowner activities that influence birds across rural-to-urban landscapes. Environmental Management (in press).
• Linderman, Marc, J. Liu, J. Qi, L. An, Z. Ouyang, J. Yang, and Y. Tan. 2003. Using Artificial Neural Networks to Map the Spatial Distribution of Understory Bamboo from Remote Sensing Data. International Journal of Remote Sensing (in press).
• Liu, J., Z. Ouyang, H. Zhang, M. Linderman, L. An, S. Bearer, G. He. 2003. A New Paradigm for Panda Research and Conservation: Integrating Ecology with Human Demography, Behavior, Socioeconomics. In: Giant Panda: Conservation Priorities for the 21st Century. (Donald G. Lindburg and Karen Baragona, editors; University of California Press, Berkeley).
• Liu, J., L. An, S. Batie, R. Groop, Z. Liang, M. Linderman, A. Mertig, Z. Ouyang, J. Qi. 2003. Human Impacts on Land Cover and Panda Habitat in Wolong Nature Reserve: Linking Ecological, Socioeconomic, Demographic, and Behavioral Data. In People and the Environment: Approaches for Linking Household and Community. Surveys to Remote Sensing and GIS. (Jeff Fox, Vinod Mishra, Ron Rindfuss, and Steve Walsh, eds., Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston), pp. 241-263.

Progress 01/01/02 to 12/31/02

Outputs
The general research objectives are to (A) develop systems models which integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors; (B) provide information for decision-makers and wildlife managers to design long-term management plans; and (C) understand some mechanisms of wildlife dynamics on landscape mosaics. Examples of specific projects being conducted under this project number are to (1) Integrating ecology and economics for forested Landscapes in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and (2) Evaluate the impacts of land use and land cover change on wildlife habitat in two watersheds. Several thousand airphoto maps of five time periods for Huron and Black River watersheds have been scanned and digitized using ARC/INFO. Results show that the Huron River watershed has experienced much more dramatic change than the Black River watershed. This project has been expanded to include explicit evaluation of human attitudes and activities on land use change and aquatic ecosystems.

Impacts
This project explicitly integrates social and economic as well as ecological factors. Thus, it provides essential information for biodiversity conservation, wildlife management, and decision-making at multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Publications

• Liu, J., G. C. Daily, P. R. Ehrlich, and G. W. Luck. 2002. Effects of household dynamics on resource consumption and biodiversity. Nature. In press.
• Liu, J., D. Pysarchik, and W. W. Taylor. 2002. Peer review in the classroom. BioScience 52:824-9.
• Lepczyk, C., A. Mertig and J. Liu. 2002. Landowner perceptions and activities related to birds across rural-to-urban landscapes. In D. Chamberlain and A. Wilson (eds.) Proceedings of the 11th Annual IALE (UK) Conference. Colin Cross Printers Ltd., Garstang, Great Britain.
• Laurent, E.J., J.P. Lebouton, M.B. Walters and J. Liu. 2002. Integrating human, satellite and avian perspectives of the landscape for analysis of forest bird distribution patterns. In D. Chamberlain and A. Wilson (eds.) Avian Landscape Ecology: Pure and Applied Issues in the Large-Scale Ecology of Birds. Proceedings of the 11th Annual IALE (UK) Conference. Colin Cross Printers Ltd., Garstang, Great Britain.
• An, L., A. G. Mertig, and J. Liu. 2002. Adolescents Leaving Parental Home--Psychosocial Correlates and Implications for Conservation. Population and Environment (in press).
• Lepczyk, C. A., A. Mertig, and J. Liu. 2002. Landowners and Cat Predation Across Rural-to-Urban Landscapes. Biological Conservation (pending minor revisions).
• Ehrlich, P. and J. Liu. 2002. Some roots of terrorism. Population and Environment 24:183-192.
• Rutledge, D.T and C.A. Lepczyk. 2002. Landscape change: Patterns, effects, and implications for adaptive management of wildlife resources. pp. 312-345. pp. 3-19. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
• Liu, J., L. An, S. Batie, R. Groop, Z. Liang, M. Linderman, A. Mertig, Z. Ouyang, J. Qi. 2002. Human Impacts on Land Cover and Panda Habitat in Wolong Nature Reserve: Linking Ecological, Socioeconomic, Demographic, and Behavioral Data. In People and the Environment: Approaches for Linking Household and Community. Surveys to Remote Sensing and GIS (Jeff Fox, Vinod Mishra, Ron Rindfuss, and Steve Walsh, eds., Kluwer (Academic Publishers), pp. 241-263.
• An, L., F. Lupi, J. Liu, M. Linderman, and J. Huang. 2002. Modeling the choice to switch from fuelwood to electricity. Ecological Economics 42:445-457.
• Liu, J. and W. W. Taylor. 2002. Landscape Function and Cross-boundary Management. pp. 177-178. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
• Liu, J. and W. W. Taylor. 2002. Syntheses and perspectives. pp. 431-2. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
• Liu, J. and W. W. Taylor. 2002. Preface. pp. xiv - xv. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
• Liu, J., Z. Ouyang, M. Linderman, L. An, S. Bearer, G. He. 2003. A New Paradigm for Panda Research and Conservation: Integrating Ecology with Human Demography, Behavior, and Socioeconomics. In: Giant Panda: Conservation Priorities for the 21 Century. (Donald G. Lindburg, Karen Baragona, editors; U. of CA Press,Berkeley).

Progress 01/01/01 to 12/31/01

Outputs
The general research objectives are to (A) develop systems models which integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors; (B) provide information for decision-makers and wildlife managers to design long-term management plans; and (C) understand some mechanisms of wildlife dynamics on landscape mosaics. Examples of specific projects being conducted under this project number are to (i) Develop an ecosystem management model to assist coordination of management among federal, state and private land owners in southern Michigan. More data regarding wildlife habitat and land use have been obtained from the Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge and three State Game Areas, and preliminary analyses of these data have been completed. A paper has been published. (ii) Construct a landscape model for deer research and management. A deer management options model has been developed and validated using data from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and is being applied to deer population in southern Michigan. Two papers have been published. And (iii) Evaluate the impacts of land use and land cover change on wildlife habitat in two watersheds. Several thousand airphoto maps of five time periods for Huron and Black River watersheds have been scanned and digitized using ARC/INFO. Results show that the Huron River watershed has experienced much more dramatic change than the Black River watershed. This project has been expanded to include explicit evaluation of human attitudes and activities on land use change and aquatic ecosystems.

Impacts
This project explicitly integrates social and economic as well as ecological factors. Thus, it provides essential information for biodiversity conservation, wildlife management, and decision-making at multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Publications

• Xie, J., Liu, J., and Doepker, R. 2001. Deer KBS: A Knowledge-based System for White-tailed Deer Management. Ecological Modelling 140:177-192.
• Liu, J. and Taylor, W. W.(Editors). 2002. (in press). Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management. Cambridge University Press.
• Liu, J. (Guest Editor). 2001. Integration of Ecology with Human Demography, Behavior, and Socioeconomics (Special issue for Ecological Modelling, an international journal), 140 (1-2): 1-192.
• Liu, J. and Taylor, W. W. 2002. Coupling landscape ecology with natural resource management: paradigm shifts and new approaches. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press (in press). An, L., Liu, J.,Ouyang, Z.,Linderman, M. A.,Zhou, S., and Zhang, H. 2001. Simulating demographic and socioeconomic processes on household level and implications for giant panda habitats. Ecological Modelling 140:31-50.
• Liu, J., Linderman,M.,Ouyang, Z., An, L.,Yang, J.,Zhang, H. 2001. Ecological degradation in protected areas: The case of Wolong Nature Reserve for giant pandas. Science 292: 98-101.
• Liu, J. Linderman,M.,Ouyang, Z.,An, L. 2001. The pandas' habitat at Wolong Nature Reserve response. Science 293:603-604.
• McDonald, A., Liu, J., Prince, H., and Kress, K. 2001. A Socio-Economic- Ecological Simulation Model of Land Acquisition to Expand a National Wildlife Refuge. Ecological Modelling 140: 99-110.
• Liu, J. and Taylor, W. W. 2002. Coupling landscape ecology with natural resource management: paradigm shifts and new approaches. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press (in press).
• Liu, J. and Taylor, W. W. 2002. Landscape Structure and Multi-scale Management. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press (in press). Liu, J. and Taylor, W. W. 2002. Landscape Function and Cross-boundary Management. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press (in press).
• Liu, J. and Taylor, W. W. 2002. Landscape Change and Adaptive Management. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press (in press).
• Liu, J. and Taylor, W. W. 2002. Landscape Integrity and Integrated Management. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press (in press).
• Turner,M., Crow,G., Thomas,R., Liu,J., Rabe,D., Rabeni,C.F., Soranno,P.A., Taylor, W.W. ,Vogt, K., and Wiens, J.A.. 2002. Bridging the gap between landscape ecology and natural resource management. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press (in press).
• Ouyang, Z., Liu, J., and Xiao, H. 2001. Giant panda habitat assessment in Wolong Nature Reserve, Sichuan, China. Acta Ecologia Sinica 21 (10).

Progress 01/01/00 to 12/31/00

Outputs
The general research objectives are to (A) develop systems models which integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors; (B) provide information for decision-makers and wildlife managers to design long-term management plans; and (C) understand some mechanisms of wildlife dynamics on landscape mosaics. Examples of specific projects being conducted under this project number are to (i) Develop an ecosystem management model to assist coordination of management among federal, state and private land owners in southern Michigan. More data regarding wildlife habitat and land use have been obtained from the Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge and three State Game Areas, and preliminary analyses of these data have been completed. A paper is now in press. (ii) Construct a landscape model for deer research and management. A deer management options model has been developed and validated using data from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and is being applied to deer population in southern Michigan. A paper has been published and another paper is now in press. And (iii) Evaluate the impacts of land use and land cover change on wildlife habitat in two watersheds. Several thousand airphoto maps of five time periods for Huron and Black River watersheds have been scanned and digitized using ARC INFO. Results show that the Huron River watershed has experienced much more dramatic change than the Black River watershed. This project has been expanded to include explicit evaluation of human attitudes and activities on land use change and aquatic ecosystems.

Impacts
This project explicitly integrates social and economic as well as ecological factors. Thus, it provides essential information for biodiversity conservation, wildlife management, and decision-making at multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Publications

• Dunning, J. B.,Danielson, B. J.,Watts, B. D.,Liu, J.,and Krementz, D. G.. 2000. Studying wildlife at local and landscape scales: Bachman's Sparrows at the Savannah River Site. Studies in Avian Biology 21:75-80.
• Ouyang, Z., Liu, J., and Zhang, H. 2000 Community structure of the giant panda habitat in Wolong Nature Reserve. Acta Ecologia Sinica 22:65-73.
• Rutledge, J.,Lepcyzk, C.,Xie, J. and Liu, J. 2001. Spatial and temporal dynamics of endangered species hotspots in the United States. Conservation Biology (in press).
• Ouyang, Z., Liu, J., and Zhang, K. 2001. A spatial analysis of giant panda habitat preference. Biodiversity Research (in press).
• Liu, J. 2001. Integrating ecology with human demography, behavior, and socioeconomics: Needs and approaches. Ecological Modelling (in press).
• Dunning, J. B.,Stewart, D. J., and Liu J. 2001. Exploring BACHMAP: Bachman's Sparrow Mobile Animal Population Model. In S. E. Gergel and M. G. Turner (editors). Manual for Landscape Ecology Laboratory. Springer-Verlag. (in press)
• McDonald, A.,Liu, J.,Prince, H., and Kress, K. 2001. A Socio-Economic-Ecological Simulation Model of Land Acquisition to Expand a National Wildlife Refuge. Ecological Modelling (in press).
• Xie, J.,Liu, J. and Doepker, R. 2001. DeerKBS: A Knowledge-based System for White-tailed Deer Management. Ecological Modelling (in press).
• An, L.,Liu, J.,Ouyang, Z.,Linderman, M. A.,Zhou, S., and Zhang, H. 2001. Simulating demographic and socioeconomic processes on household level and implications for giant panda habitats. Ecological Modelling (in press).
• Liu, J. and Taylor, W. W. 2001. Coupling landscape ecology with natural resource management: paradigm shifts and new approaches. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press (in press). Rutledge, J.,Lepcyzk, C., and Liu, J. 2001. Using adaptive management for wildlife conservation in varying landscapes. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press (in press).
• Turner,M., Crow,G., Thomas,R., Liu,J., Rabe,D., Rabeni,C.F., Soranno,P.A., Taylor, W.W. ,Vogt, K., and Wiens, J.A. 2001. Bridging the gap between landscape ecology and natural resource management. In: Integrating Landscape Ecology into Natural Resource Management (Eds., J. Liu and W. W. Taylor), Cambridge University Press (in press).
• Liu, J.,Ouyang, Z.,Tan, Y.,Yang, J., and Zhou, S. 2000. Changes in human population structure and implications for biodiversity conservation. Occasional Paper #2 in Population and Sustainable Development, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). (Reprinted from Population and Environment. 21:45-58.)

Progress 01/01/99 to 12/31/99

Outputs
The general research objectives are to (A) develop systems models which integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors; (B) provide information for decision-makers and wildlife managers to design long-term management plans; and (C) understand some mechanisms of wildlife dynamics on landscape mosaics. Examples of specific projects being conducted under this project number are to (i) Develop an ecosystem management model to assist coordination of management among federal, state and private land owners in southern Michigan. More data regarding wildlife habitat and land use have been obtained from the Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge and three State Game Areas, and preliminary analyses of these data have been completed. (ii) Construct a landscape model for deer research and management. A deer management options model has been developed and validated using data from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and is being applied to deer population in southern Michigan. And (iii) Evaluate the impacts of land use and land cover change on wildlife habitat in two watersheds. About 3000 airphoto maps of five time periods for Huron and Black river watersheds have been scanned and digitized using ARC/INFO. Preliminary results show that the Huron River watershed has experienced much more dramatic change than the Black River watershed. This project has been expanded to include explicit evaluation of human population and activities on land use change and aquatic ecosystems.

Impacts
(N/A)

Publications

• Ashton, P., Boscolo, M., Liu, J., and LaFrankie, J. V. 1999. A global program in interdisciplinary forest research. Journal of Tropical Forest Science. 11(1):180-204.
• Dunning, J. B., Steward, D. J., and Liu, J. 2000. Exploring BACHMAP: Bachmans Sparrow Mobile Animal Population Model. In S. E. Gergel and M. G. Turner (editors). Manual for Landscape Ecology Laboratory. Springer-Verlag. (in press)
• Dunning, J. B., et. al. 2000. Studying wildlife at local and landscape scales: Bachmans Sparrows at the Savannah River Site. Studies in Avian Biology (Monograph Series of the Cooper Ornithological Society). (in press).
• Liu, J., Ouyang, Z., Taylor, W.W., Groop, R., Tan, Y., and Zhang, H. 1999. A framework for evaluating effects of human factors on wildlife habitat: The case of the giant pandas. Conservation Biology 13(6): 1360-1370.
• Xie, J., Hill, H., Winterstein, S., Campa,H.,III, Doepker, R., VanDeelen, T. R., and Liu, J. 1999. DeerMOM structure and application in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Ecological Modelling 124:121-130.
• Liu, J. and Ashton, P.S. 1999. Simulating effects of landscape context and timber harvest on tree species diversity. Ecological Applications 9:186-201.
• Liu, J., et. Al. 1999. Changes in human population structure and implications for biodiversity conservation. Occasional Paper #2 in Population and Sustainable Development, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). (Reprinted from Population and Environment. 21:45-58.)
• Liu, J., et. al. 1999. Spatial and temporal impacts of adjacent areas on the dynamics of species diversity in a primary forest. In: D. Mladenoff and W. Baker (eds.). Spatial Modeling of Forest Landscape Change: Approaches and Applications. Pp. 42-69. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
• Liu, J., et. Al. 1999. Changes in human population structure and implications for biodiversity conservation. Population and Environment. 21:45-58.
• Ouyang, Z., Liu, J., and Zhang, H. 2000. Community structure of the giant panda habitat in Wolong Nature Reserve. Acta Ecologia Sinica (in press).
• Ouyang, Z., Liu, J., and Zhang, K. 2000. A spatial analysis of giant panda habitat preference. Acta Ecologia Sinica (in press).

Progress 01/01/98 to 12/31/98

Outputs
The general research objectives are to (A) develop systems models which integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors; (B) provide information for decision-makers and wildlife managers to design long-term management plans; and (C) understand some mechanisms of wildlife dynamics on landscape mosaics. Examples of specific projects being conducted under this project number are to (i) Develop an ecosystem management model to assist coordination of management among federal, state and private land owners in southern Michigan. More data regarding wildlife habitat and land use have been obtained from the Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge and three State Game Areas, and preliminary analyses of these data have been completed. (ii) Construct a landscape model for deer research and management. A deer management options model has been developed and validated using data from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and is being applied to deer population in southern Michigan. And (iii) Evaluate the impacts of land use and land cover change on wildlife habitat in two watersheds. About 3000 airphoto maps of five time periods for Huron and Black river watersheds have been scanned and digitized using ARC/INFO. Preliminary results show that the Huron River watershed has experienced much more dramatic change than the Black River watershed. This project has been expanded to include explicit evaluation of human population and activities on land use change and aquatic ecosystems.

Impacts
(N/A)

Publications

• Liu, J. 1998. Reconciling wildlife conservation and economic development. 5th Annual Conference of The Wildlife Society. Buffalo, NY. Sept. 22-26. Abstract.
• Hanaburgh, C., H. Campa, S. R. Winterstein, D. E. Beyer, and J. Liu. 1998. A landscape approach to evaluating wildlife resources under different land ownerships. 5th Annual Conference of The Wildlife Society. Buffalo, NY. Sept. 22-26. Abstract.
• Rutledge, D., C. A. Lepczyk, and J. Liu. 1998. Linking human demographics and landscape dynamics: a case study in MI with implications for wildlife. Ecological Society of American Ann. Mtg Baltimore, MD. August 2-6. P. 211. Abstract Book.
• Xie, J., J. Sticklen, D. Rabe, and J. Liu. 1998. A decision support system for white-tailed deer management. Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference. Cincinnati, OH. Dec. 9-12. Abstract.
• Lepczyk, C.A., D. T. Rutledge, and J. Liu. 1998. Land-use & human dem changes in the Huron Ri. watershed, MI. 13th Ann Mtg of U.S. Reg Assoc of Internat'l Assoc for Landscape Ecology. E. Lansing, MI. March 17-21. P.113. Abstract Book.
• Ouyang, Z., J. Liu, Y. Tan, and H. Zhang. 1998. Spatial analysis of habitat pref by Giant Pandas. 13th Ann Mtg of U.S. Reg Assoc of Internat'l Assoc for Landscape Ecol. E. Lansing, MI, March 17-21. P.126. Abstract Book.
• Rutledge, D., K. Newman, J. Lessard, R. Oram, R. Groop, D. Hayes, and J. Liu. 1998. Landscape dynamics in the Huron River Watershed, MI. 13th Ann Mtg of U.S. Regional Assoc of Internat'l Assoc for Landscape Ecology. E. Lansing, MI, March 17-21. P. 136. Program and Abstract Book.
• Ouyang, Z., J. Liu, R. Wang, and X. Wang. 1998. Impacts of land conversion on plant and bird species diversity in Hainan Island, China. 13th Ann Mtg of U.S. Reg Assoc of Internat'l Assoc for Landscape Ecology. E. Lansing, MI, March 17-21. P. 126. Program and Abstract Book.
• Xie, J., M. L. Donovan, and J. Liu. 1998. Landscape structure and white-tailed deer distribution in the Upper Peninsula of MI. 13th Ann Mtg of U.S. Reg Assoc of Internat'l Assoc for Landscape Ecology. E. Lansing, MI, March 17-21. P. 158. Program and Abstract Book.

Progress 01/01/97 to 12/31/97

Outputs
The general research objectives are to (A)develop systems models which integrate ecological & socioeconomic factors; (B)provide information for decision-makers & wildlife managers to design long-term management plans;(C)understand some mechanisms of wildlife dynamics on landscape mosaics. Examples of specific projects being conducted under this project number are to (i)Develop an ecosystem management model to assist coordination of management among federal, state & private land owners in southern Michigan. A conceptual framework for the ecosystem management model has been developed. Some data necessary for parameterizing the model have been collected. Land use & cover data in the Michigan Resource Information System for the study area have been converted from C-map format to ARC/INFO format. (ii)Construct a landscape model for deer research & management. A general conceptual model & a preliminary population module have been developed. Some habitat & population data have been gathered. And (iii)Evaluate the impact of land use & land cover change on wildlife habitat in two watersheds. Many airphoto maps for the Huron & Black river watersheds have been scanned & digitized using ARC/INFO. Preliminary results show that the Huron river watershed has experienced much more dramatic change than the Black river watershed.

Impacts
(N/A)

Publications

• OUYANG, Z.,LIU, J. 1996. Methodology of ecological planning for reg. sustainable dev. Critical Issues in Modern Ecology (eds., Wang, R.), China Science & Technology Press, Beijing. pp. 39-46. LIU, J., DUNNING, J.B., PULLIAM, R. 1995. Potential impacts of a forest mgt plan on Bachman's Sparrow (Aimophila aestivalis): linking a spatially- explicit model with GIS. Conservation Bio. 9(1):62-79.
• LIU, J.,ASHTON, P.S. 1995. Individual-based simulation models for forest succession and management. Forest Ecology and Management 73:157-175.
• TURNER, M.G., ARTHAUD, G.J., ENGSTROM, R.T., HEJL, S.J., LIU, J., LOEB, S., MCKELVEY, K. 1995. Usefulness of spatially explicit animal models in land management. Ecological Applications, 5:12-16.
• HOLT, R.D., PACALA, S.W., SMITH, T.W.,LIU, J. 1995. Linking contemporary vegetation models and spatially explicit animal population models. Ecological Applications, 5:20-27.
• LIU, J. 1996. ECOLECON: purposes and applications. In Handbook of Environmental and Ecological Modeling (eds., Jorgensen, S.E.)CRC Lewis Publishings, New York. pp. 353-354.
• LIU, J. 1996. Ecosystem mgt for sustainable development. In Wealth, Health & Faith--Sustainability Studies (eds., Wang, W.), China Environmental Science Press, Beijing. pp. 56-59.

Progress 01/01/96 to 12/30/96

Outputs
The general research objectives are to (A)develop systems models which integrateecological & socioeconomic factors; (B)provide information for decision-makers & wildlife managers to design long-term management plans;(C)understand some mechanisms of wildlife dynamics on landscape mosaics. Examples of specific projects being conducted under this project number are to (i)Develop an ecosystem management model to assist coordination of management among federal, state & private land owners in southern Michigan. A conceptual framework for the ecosystem management model has been developed. Some data necessary for parameterizing the model have been collected. Land use & cover data in the Michigan Resource Information System for the study area have been converted from C-map format to ARC/INFO format. (ii)Construct a landscape model for deer research & management. A general conceptual model & a preliminary population module have been developed. Some habitat & population data have been gathered. And (iii)Evaluate the impact of land use & land cover change on wildlife habitat in two watersheds. Many airphoto maps for the Huron & Black river watersheds have been scanned & digitized using ARC/INFO. Preliminary results show that the Huron river watershed has experienced much more dramatic change than the Black river watershed.

Impacts
(N/A)

Publications

• LIU, J. 1996. Ecosystem mgt for sustainable development. In Wealth, Health & Faith--Sustainability Studies (eds., Wang, W.), China Environmental Science Press, Beijing. pp.56-59.
• OUYANG, Z.,LIU, J. 1996. Methodology of ecological planning for reg. sustainabledev. Critical Issues in Modern Ecology (eds., Wang, R.), China Science & Technology Press, Beijing. pp. 39-46.
• LIU, J., DUNNING, J. B., PULLIAM, R. 1995. Potential impacts of a forest mgt planon Bachman's Sparrow (Aimophila aestivalis): linking a spatially- explicit modelwith GIS. Conservation Bio. 9(1):62-79.
• LIU, J.,ASHTON, P. S. 1995. Individual-based simulation models for forest succession and management. Forest Ecology and Management 73:157-175.
• TURNER, M.G., ARTHAUD, G.J., ENGSTROM, R.T., HEJL, S. J., LIU, J., LOEB, S., MCKELVEY, K. 1995. Usefulness of spatially explicit animal models in land management. Ecological Applications, 5:12-16.
• HOLT, R.D., PACALA, S.W., SMITH, T. W.,LIU, J. 1995. Linking contemporary vegetation models and spatially explicit animal population models. Ecological Applications, 5:20-27.
• LIU, J. 1996. ECOLECON: purposes and applications. In Handbook of Environmental and Ecological Modeling (eds., Jorgensen, S.E.)CRC Lewis Publishings, New York. pp.353-354.