Progress 10/01/98 to 09/30/03
Outputs
Research in New York on Regional Project S-287 has focused on Objective 2: 'To determine the economic consequences of continued reforms in trade treaties and agreements and to assess alternative strategies to improve competitiveness.' There have been two distinct components of research conducted. The first focused on global trade in fresh apples. The global apple market has continued to expand, with the U.S. the world's second largest apple exporter after the E.U., but facing increasing export competition from both traditional and emerging competitors. This research used a two-stage approach to estimate import market demand systems in four important markets: Canada, Singapore, the Philippines and the U.K. The first stage used a linear expenditure system to estimate total expenditures on apple imports; the second stage used an AIDS model to estimate conditional price and expenditure elasticities. The results show that apple import demand is price- and income-inelastic;
that U.S. apples are differentiated in international markets; that U.S. exports are largely complementary with those of most other major exporters; and that U.S. apple exports appear to be competitive in three of the four markets analyzed (Singapore, the Philippines and the U.K.). Simulation results suggest that China's rapid export growth in Asian markets is likely to have a lesser impact on U.S. exports of fresh apples than processed products. U.S. exports are likely to benefit from continued tariff declines in major import markets. The second component of this project is on the competitiveness of the U.S. papaya industry, in light of the development the transgenic papaya, resistant to ringspot virus, its rapid adoption and commercialization in Hawaii, and the potential for profound impacts on this industry, its markets, prices, and trading patterns. It also serves as an interesting case study for future bioengineered horticultural projects. Our work has focused on the phenomenon of
market segmentation and identity preservation among GM and traditional varieties. We examine commercialization, trade and market impacts stemming from the recent development of transgenic papaya. Initial survey work among growers demonstrated widespread acceptance, conditional on openness of the Japanese export market. The specific focus of our work examines the development of a segmented market based on identity preservation for GM papaya and traditional papaya varieties destined for domestic (U.S.) and export markets. We develop a partial equilibrium trade model to measure changes in industry welfare under alternative scenarios which examine technology adoption alternatives for U.S. producers, and various trade policy scenarios for restrictive Japanese and Canadian import markets. Results show that market price impacts resulting from technology adoption significantly diminish the economic incentives to adopt. Import restrictions in the Japanese import market are particularly
important. Results appear highly conditional on regulatory barriers facing bioengineered food products in key import markets.
Impacts
The expected impact of both project components is to identify the nature of economic, technology and trade policy influences on markets, trading patterns and competitiveness of the U.S. horticulture industry, with specific attention to fresh apples and genetically modified papaya. In apples, we expect that U.S. apple exports will continue to benefit from import market complementarity and reduced trade barriers, but will increasingly compete with Chinese (and other third country) exports. For papaya, U.S. exports should benefit from higher Hawaiian production, permitted by transgenic varieties, and liberalization of some markets (e.g., Canada), but future trends will depend significantly on whether key importers (particularly Japan) liberalize their import markets to permit GM products.
Publications
- Sebastiano, Jody N. 2003. 'An Economic Analysis of the Adoption of a Genetically Modified Variety: The Case of the Hawaiian Papaya', M.S. thesis, Department of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, January, 2003.
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Progress 01/01/02 to 12/31/02
Outputs
Research in New York on Regional Project S-287 focuses on Objective 2: 'To determine the economic consequences of continued reforms in trade treaties and agreements and to assess alternative strategies to improve competitiveness.' Work underway in 2002 focused on examining the role of biotechnology innovation and related trade policies in influencing market outcomes as a competitiveness strategy for horticulture products. The commodity focus of this work not because of its importance in the Eastern U.S., but rather because of its role as an illustrative commodity that has experienced rapid biotechnological innovation is the fresh papaya, produced in Hawaii. Specifically, our work has focused on the phenomenon of market segmentation based on identity preservation among GM and traditional varieties. We examine commercialization, trade and market impacts stemming from the recent development of transgenic papaya, resistant to papaya ringspot virus. Initial survey work
completed earlier has demonstrated widespread acceptance among producers, conditional on openness of the Japanese export market. The specific focus of our work examines the development of a segmented market based on identity preservation for GM papaya and traditional papaya varieties destined for domestic (U.S.) and export markets. We develop a partial equilibrium trade model to measure changes in industry welfare under alternative scenarios which examine technology adoption alternatives for U.S. producers, and various trade policy scenarios for Japanese and Canadian import markets, where phytosanitary restrictions restrict GM product imports. Initial results show that market price impacts resulting from technology adoption significantly diminish the economic incentives to adopt. Import restrictions in the Japanese import market are particularly important. Results appear highly conditional on regulatory barriers facing bioengineered food products in key import markets.
Impacts
This research is still underway, and thus impact can not yet be assessed. The intended impact is to identify economic, technology and trade policy influences on the competitiveness of the U.S. horticulture industry, with specific attention to GM products and their trade and market impacts. This work will be useful in assessing the potential for increasing U.S. exports in the future.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/01 to 12/31/01
Outputs
Research in New York on Regional Project S-287 focuses on Objective 2: 'To determine the economic consequences of continued reforms in trade treaties and agreements and to assess alternative strategies to improve competitiveness.' The primary commodity focus in global trade in fresh apples, a horticultural product sector important to New York and the Northeast. This focus complements the general focus of the project on export markets of primary importance in the Southern region. The global apple market has continued to expand, taking advantage of positive trends in both consumer demand and declining trade protectionism. The U.S. remains the world's second largest apple exporter after the E.U., but is facing increasing export competition from both traditional and emerging competitors. This research uses a two-stage approach to estimate import market demand systems in four important markets: Canada, Singapore, the Philippines and the U.K. A linear expenditure system is
used in the first stage to estimate total expenditures on apple imports; in the second stage, an AIDS model is employed to estimate conditional price and expenditure elasticities for major exporters. The first-stage results show that apple import demand is price- and income-inelastic. Second-stage results indicate that U.S. apples are differentiated in international markets, that U.S. exports are largely complementary with those of most other major exporters, and that U.S. apple exports appear to be competitive in three of the four markets analyzed (Singapore, the Philippines and the U.K.). Preliminary simulation results using the parameter estimates of the import demand models suggest that China's rapid export growth in Asian markets (Singapore and the Philippines) is not likely to have a major impact on U.S. exports of fresh apples (unlike processed products). U.S. exports are likely to benefit from continued tariff declines in major import markets. A secondary focus of this project
is on the competitiveness of the U.S. papaya industry, in light of new developments in biotechnology (including at Cornell) and their trade impacts. The development of transgenic virus-resistant papaya and its commercialization in Hawaii is having a profound structural change on this industry. Initial survey work was conducted demonstrating wide acceptance (nearly 100 percent adoption in the survey area) of transgenic papaya. Future prospects of the industry depend signficantly on trade prospects and the regulatory environment facing bioengineered food products in the Japanese export market.
Impacts
Our research is still underway, and thus little impact can yet be assessed. More generally, the intended impact is to identify economic, technology, and trade policy factors of particular relevance to the competitiveness of the U.S. horticultural product industry (the apple industry, specifically), which will be useful in assessing the potential for increasing exports in the future.
Publications
- Gonsalves, C.V. 2001. Transgenic Virus-Resistant Papaya: Farmer Adoption and Impact in the Puna Area of Hawaii. M.A.L.S. thesis, Empire State College, State Universtiy of New York, October.
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Progress 01/01/00 to 12/31/00
Outputs
Research in New York on this regional project is focusing on Objective 2 of S-287: 'To determine the economic consequences of continued reforms intrade treaties and agreements and to assess alternative strategies to improve competitiveness.' The commodity concentration of this research is the global market in fresh apples, a horticultural product sector important to New York and the Northeast. This focus complements the general focus of the project on export markets of primary importance in the Southern region. Work over the past year focused on three objectives. (1) the identification of selected foreign import markets, important to U.S. suppliers, for subsequent analysis; these markets include Singapore, Canada, the U.K. and the Philippines; (2) the development of two-stage market share models (linear expenditure system (LES) in the first stage, AIDS in the second stage) to analyze market allocation among alternative suppliers (including the U.S.) in these specific
import markets; and (3) the initial use of these models to examine the implications for the U.S. and other exporters of changes in trade policies and trade agreements in these selected markets. Initial results show that fresh apple demand in these markets is largely price- and income-inelastic, so that changes in economic growth should not affect apple import demand significantly. This is particularly important in developing countries such as the Philippines and Singapore, where economic growth fluctuates widely. Initial results show that the U.S. appears to be competitive with other suppliers in most of the markets studied, in part because it is a complementary supplier of apples to these markets, along with other suppliers. Further reductions in trade barriers in these markets (notably the U.K. and the Philippines) should help U.S. suppliers increase their fresh apple exports.
Impacts
Our research is still underway, and thus little impact can yet be assessed. More generally, the intended impact is to identify economic, technology, and trade policy factors of particular relevance to the competitiveness of the U.S. horticultural product industry (the apple industry, specifically), which will be useful in assessing the potential for increasing exports in the future.
Publications
- Martin,K.S. 2000. Two-Stage Estimation of Import Demand: Analysis of Selected U.S. Apple Export Markets. M.S. thesis, Department of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, August.
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Progress 01/01/99 to 12/31/99
Outputs
Work in New York on this project is concentrating on Objective 2 of S-287: "To determine the economic consequences of continued reforms in trade treaties and agreements and to assess alternative strategies to improve competitiveness." The commodity focus of this research is fresh apples, a horticultural product sector important to New York and the Northeast. This focus complements the general focus of the project on export markets of primary importance in the Southern region. To date, the major focus of the research has been to conduct thorough literature reviews of: (1) the international trade in apples and apple products, focusing on global and regional trends of particular importance to understanding the competitive position of the U.S., and (2) alternative trade modeling approaches to the allocation of specific import markets to alternative export suppliers. These reviews are underway and will form the basis for subsequent research. Current and future research is
focusing on (1) the identification of selected foreign import markets (important to U.S. suppliers) for subsequent analysis; (2) the adaptation of existing (and, if necessary, development of new) market share models to analyze import market allocation to alternative suppliers on the basis of domestic, international and policy factors; and (3) the use of the models developed to examine the implications for the U.S. and other exporters of changes in trade policies and trade agreements in these selected markets, including domestic and regional trade policy reforms. The overall objective is to develop a better understanding of the factors and forces which affect the competitiveness of U.S. exporters and competitors in a commodity export market of growing importance to New York and U.S. producers.
Impacts
Inasmuch as New York participation in this research project has only recently been approved (1/10/00) and work is ongoing, no impact can yet be assessed. The intended impact, more generally, is to identify economic, technology, and trade policy factors of particular relevance to the competitiveness of the U.S. horticultural product industry (the apple industry, specifically), and to assess their role in influencing changing competitiveness and future increases in exports.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/95 to 12/30/95
Outputs
The general objective of this project is to assess the impacts of international market developments, including structural adjustment and trade liberalization, on agricultural commodities important to U.S. agricultural trade. This consists not only of assessment of U.S. markets but of markets in competitor countries and international export markets which are relevant to U.S. trade. Three distinct projects were undertaken in the previous year which are relevant to these objectives. First, an Armington-type trade model was estimated of the international banana market. This research revealed that recent restrictive European Community policies benefitting ACP exporting nations are expected to decrease the market shares of Latin American exporters in the European market and drive down international banana prices, to the potential benefit of U.S. and other importers. A second project examined the feasibililty of melon exporters in Honduras, an industry which has been assisted
substantially by U.S. foreign assistance and which exports mostly to the U.S. This research documented the considerable production, financial and market-oriented constraints faced by cooperative-based melon exporters, while private sector melon producers were shown to fare considerably better. Melon exportation does not appear to be a sustainable production alternative for many small-scale producers due to such factors as price instability, lack of capital, production constraints, diseconomies of scale in production, and lack of.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 01/01/94 to 12/30/94
Outputs
Analysis was conducted on selected international commodity markets where the U.S. has experienced the effects of trade policy changes as either a producer/exporter or importer/consumer. Analysis of Western Hemisphere trade in melons and pineapples demonstrated that NAFTA-related tariff changes should not have significant effects on these markets, but that exchange rate changes among the U.S., Mexico and other producers can be expected to have major effects on international competitiveness. Tariff-rate changes due to NAFTA should not cause significant trade diversion from Caribbean exporters to the U.S. market. Estimation of an Armington model of the global trade in bananas demonstrated that recent European Union policy changes toward greater protectionism will harm Latin American exporters facing a smaller import quota, will help favored ACP country exporters who enjoy a larger guaranteed market, and will benefit other importers, including the U.S., which import bananas
previously destined for the European market. Publications reporting these and other results are being prepared.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
- NO PUBLICATIONS REPORTED THIS PERIOD.
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