Progress 10/01/01 to 09/30/07
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The major emphases of the research project over the past six years have been (1) developing course and teaching materials to enable forestry students and professionals to access and utilize the U.S. Forest Services online nationwide forest inventory data and (2) using the U. S. Forest Services forest health monitoring techniques to evaluate tree crown characteristics including crown density, crown dieback and foliage transparency.
TARGET AUDIENCES: Forest Biometricians
Impacts
Educational tools developed included a tutorial using pivot tables with stratified random sampling and web-based processes to access and apply Forest Inventory databases. The monitoring of tree crown characteristics demonstrated that with the current techniques, the majority of trees in the Shades and Turkey Run State Parks are not exhibiting responses to extreme stress.
Publications
- Chivolu, B., Shao, G., Moser, J., Mills, W. 2006. ArcFVS: An integration of geographic information systems and forest vegetation simulator. Science in China: Series E Technological Sciences. Vol 49 Supp I, pp35-44.
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Progress 10/01/05 to 09/30/06
Outputs
The U. S. Forest Services Forest Inventory and Analysis Program has the responsibility to conduct an annualized inventory on all forestlands across the United States. Under provisions of the Food Security Act of 1985, they may not disclose proprietary information collected from this inventory to any individual or organization. To insure compliance with the 1985 Food Security Act the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program instituted the policy of perturbing and swapping inventory plot locations when non-FIA users access plot and tree data. I have begun work under the provisions of a Privacy Policy Study Group to investigate the impact of this policy on summaries from data collected from Indiana forest ownerships. Initially, fuzzed and unfuzzed volume summaries will be generated by species and diameter classes for all of Indianas Counties to investigate actual differences between the two methods for generating county summaries. Secondly, a subset of counties from the
Northern, Lower Wabash, Knobs and Upland Flats sampling units will be used to sequentially generate summaries by species and diameter classes for gradually decreasing summary areas within a county to determine if and when differences occur.
Impacts
At this point the impact on user generated reports from perturbed and swaped Forest Inventory and Analysis plots is uncertainty. It is anticipated that this study will provide Indiana users with actual differences based on size of geographical areas and forest attributes that are analyzed.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 10/01/04 to 09/30/05
Outputs
During the last reporting period I took a sabbatical leave to collaborate with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program. Work during the sabbatical included 1. Explore the opportunities for developing within Purdue University Department of Forestry and Natural Resources a Master of Science Program to qualify individuals for employment as FIA data analysts. 2. Develop a working knowledge of the analytical tools and procedures to analyze the inventory data and report the results to federal, state, local, and industrial managers and policy makers. 3. Develop course and teaching materials that reflect current technology and practices used in the multi-resource inventory.
Impacts
Educational tools developed resulting from the sabbatical included a tutorial on using pivot tables with stratified random sampling, development of tutorial-based exercises to guide students through the web-based process to access and apply the Forest Inventory nationwide database. Example applications that the tutorials cover include: (1) variation in tree species composition and growing stock with changes in latitude, (2) suitability of wild turkey habitat based on forest type and stand size class distributions, (3) tree distributions based on age and species for selected Missouri counties, and (4) the distribution of tree species in California based on elevation.
Publications
- Guang Zhao, Guofan Shao, Keith Reynolds, Michael Wimberly, Tim Warner, John Moser, et al. 2005. Digital Forestry: A White Paper. Journal of Forestry. 103(1):47-50.
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Progress 10/01/03 to 09/29/04
Outputs
Using forest health monitoring techniques, an evaluation of tree crown characteristics was conducted on the Turkey Run and Shades State Parks in Indiana. Crown dieback, foliage transparency, and crown density were summarized for three consecutive measurement years, and the short-term changes in these characteristics were quantified in an effort to identify potential forest health concerns. In both parks, no significant changes were detected in the levels of crown dieback and crown density. However, in the Shades hardwoods, and more specifically hickory species, there was an unfavorable change in foliage transparency. This change did not appear extraordinary given the forest health monitoring measurement quality objectives.
Impacts
This study demonstrated that given the current body of knowledge regarding acceptable levels for the crown characteristics, the majority of trees in the Shades and Turkey Run State Parks in Indiana are not exhibiting responses to extreme stress and should be considered healthy. Further, it illustrates that Forest Health Monitoring field and analytical techniques can be effectively implemented for small-scale forest health surveys.
Publications
- Randolph, K. C. and J. W. Moser, Jr. 2004. An evaluation of changes in tree crown characteristics to assess forest health in two Indiana state parks. North. J. Appl. For. 21(1):50-55.
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Progress 10/01/02 to 09/30/03
Outputs
A cooperative project has been started with the U. S. Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program. This program annually collects tree data and forest attribute data from systematic permanent plots across the entire United States. Specifically, the inventory measures tree growth, mortality, harvest and health to assess the condition of the Nation's forest ecosystems to determine if forest lands are increasing or decreasing, and whether the number and quantity of species are changing over time. These data are stored in a publicly accessible online database. The objective of this cooperative project is to develop a series of instructional modules that will facilitate faculty and students to access these online data and to incorporate FIA data analysis into undergraduate and graduate programs. To date, the following FIA Data instructional query modules have been developed: (1) Species composition and growing stock volume changes with latitude, (2) Cubic foot
volume growth changes with latitude, (3) Changes in volume of American elm in Illinois in the last 20 years, and (4) Individual tree growth changes with latitude.
Impacts
Through these FIA instructional modules, undergraduate students will become familiar with FIA data and they will be prepared to use it in graduate studies or in professional positions after graduation. Additionally, such instructional materials will facilitate faculty at colleges and universities to incorporate FIA data analyses into existing forestry, natural resources, and environmental management courses.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 10/01/01 to 09/30/02
Outputs
Work has begun on formulating a technique for dynamically "growing" tree diameters in the application of stand table projection methodology. The most commonly applied method utilizes a static estimate of diameter increment obtained from increment cores extracted from selected sample trees in a forest inventory. The method under study utilizes remeasured tree attribute data from permanent sample plots. Further, the method is based upon the assumption that average diameter growth any specified size class may be estimated from the average basal area growth for that class and the class midpoint which is estimated from ratio of the class basal area and the number of trees in the class. These attributes are being incorporated into a system of differential equations.
Impacts
The method has potential to update tree data collected by the National Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. For non FIA inventories, the method eliminates the necessity of coring a subset of plot trees since repeated diameter measurement is taken on all plot trees. In both instances, the growth estimates are based upon the changes in the components of growth - ingrowth, mortality and survivor growth.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 10/01/00 to 09/30/01
Outputs
To investigate the effectiveness of forest health monitoring procedures on small land parcels, three measures of tree crown condition were examined for change of over a three-year period in two Indiana state parks. The measures were crown dieback, foliage transparency and crown density. There were no significant changes in crown dieback either over or between the two parks. Additionally, low percentages of trees in the moderate and severe dieback categories suggest that the forests in the study area are not suffering from dieback stress. Foliage transparency remained unchanged for softwood species over time and between parks. While foliage transparency for hardwood species did display a change, it was well within the forest health monitoring quality objective of plusor minus 10 percent. However, hickory species did indicate a rising increase in transparency, which may be indicative of increase stress. Crown density remained relatively stable over the three-year
assessment period with no significant changes indicated in tree health.
Impacts
This study demonstrates that analytical techniques to summarize forest health data can provide useful land management information for small land parcels. For example, an owner interested in a particular tree species can manipulate the data to obtain the species-specific information. Further, a landowner concerned about the health of large, old growth trees can categorize forest health analyses by diameter and/or age classes. These types of information provide landowners additional land management decision-making capabilities.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 10/01/99 to 09/30/00
Outputs
A study in two Indiana State Parks demonstrated that the national Forest Health Monitoring protocol and analysis methods are applicable to small-scale sites. Conclusions drawn from this study indicate that: (1) Any analyses regarding stand structure employing tree height measurements, e.g. wildlife habitat, must employ supplemental height prediction procedures. (2) Without an adequate sample size, a representative determination of forest health is unobtainable. (3) The ratio of dead tree diameters to live tree diameters did not reveal any unusual patterns of mortality. (4) Measures of tree crown condition - dieback, foliage transparency, and density - indicate that the two parks are not suffering serious detrimental effects from natural or anthropogenic agents.
Impacts
Overall, the forests of the Shades and Turkey Run are apparently in good health as defined by national Forest Health Monitoring indicators. The parks exemplify processes inherent in natural forest stands, and as such, the parks should continue to thrive as a place for Hoosier recreation.
Publications
- Atta-Boateng, J. and J. W. Moser, Jr. 2000. A compatible growth and yield model for the management of mixed tropical rain forests. Canadian Jour. For. Res. 30:311-323.
- Atta-Boateng, J. and J. W. Moser, Jr. 2000. Growth and yield model application in tropical rain forest management. IN: Integrating Tools for Natural Resources Inventories in the 21st Century. North Central Research Station GTR NC-212. pp. 473-480.
- Morse, R., K. Randolph and J. W. Moser, Jr. 2000. A prototype for forest health monitoring in Indiana state parks. IN: Integrating Tools for Natural Resources Inventories in the 21st Century. North Central Research Station GTR NC-212. pp. 141-144.
- Randolph, K. 2000. An evaluation of forest health monitoring analytical techniques and data for two Indiana state parks. Master of Science Thesis, 134pp. Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University.
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Progress 10/01/98 to 09/30/99
Outputs
The absence of analytical tools to determine optimum exploitation levels and evaluate the impact of alternative policies have hampered the sustainable use of the rain forest to provide the greatest benefit to present and future generations. Optimal decisions concerning the level of management inputs, felling cycles, cultural operations and financial investment require accurate predictions of output at all relevant input levels. A technique, using hierarchical clustering and canonical discriminant procedures, was developed to pool 112 timber species with similar growth increment characteristics into 7 groups suitable for the construction of growth and yield models. Compatible growth and yield models were developed for each group by the solution of a system of differential equations expressing the rate of change of in-growth, mortality and survival growth components within a forest stand.
Impacts
The solution provides the means to project the status of the timber stand at any future time given well-specified initial stand conditions. The models are useful for inventory updating, allowable annual cut calculations, and management planning for natural or managed stands. They also provide a means to test hypotheses concerning the influence of stand characteristics on increment and to project future product assortments.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 10/01/97 to 09/30/98
Outputs
As the tropical timber industry enters the 21st century, it will search for competitive advantage in harvesting. Forest management will require intensive management and high yields. Forest managers will have to find ways to adhere to new environmental regulations and address the public's concerns about forest health. Better information and data analysis are the key to this new brand of intensive management. The reserach in this project developed a window-based growth and yield system that incorporated a novel technique to pool sparsely distributed tropical forest tree species with similar growth increment characteristics into groups. The technique is a landmark in the construction of growth and yield models for mixed species uneven-aged forest. It presents an objective approach to minimize the variations within each species group and hence the bias in the estimation of the species groups growth model parameters. The compatible growth and yield models developed were
based on well-established premises.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
- Atta-Boateng, J. and J. W. Moser, Jr. 1998. A method for classifying commerical tree species of uneven-aged mixed tropical forest for growth and yield model construction. Forest ecology and Management, 104(1998):89-99
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Progress 10/01/96 to 09/30/97
Outputs
Work has been completed on a tropical forest prototype decision support system. It is comprised of three application modules that assist with rational choices for the development of long-term forest management policies and strategy. In the forest module, a technique was developed to pool 112 species with similar growth increment characteristics for the construction of timber growth and yield models. The industrial module incorporated traditional supply-demand, least squares, autoregessive integrated moving average simulation techniques to develop an econometric model of the forest product market. An optimization module as developed to impose biological and political constraints on the current status of the resource and subsequently simulate future impacts and optimum resource yield in product terms, given a predetermined sustainable development policy. Application of the system provided results that were consistent with observable characteristics of growing timber
resource and product commodities; additionally, useful insights were obtained into future timber and wood commodities markets. One graduate student worked on this project during this period.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
- ATTA-BOATENG, J. and MOSER, JR., J. W. 1997. A method for classifying commercial tree species of an uneven-aged mixed tropical forest for growth and yield model construction. Forest Ecology and Management. In press.
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Progress 10/01/95 to 09/30/96
Outputs
Work has continued on developing components of a Tropical Forest Management Decision Support System. Individual tree growth models were derived from tropical forest inventory plots by clustering species with similar growth and ecological characteristics. These models are being incorporated into econometric supply and demand to simulate future values of production and consumption under various assumptions of economic and timber resource sustainability conditions. The results will provide management alternatives and strategies that will maintain and improve resource conservation and improve environmental quality for Ghana's high tropical forest. During 1996 this McIntire-Stennis project has been revised to include two additional thrusts. They are: (1) To investigate models and indices for estimating the relative abundance and variety (biodiversity) of woody species represented in Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) plots and develop modules to incorporate such indices into
forest inventory processing systems and, (2) To investigate the utilization of stand dynamic models to "grow" digital visualizations of forested landscapes and to link the visualizations with quantitative forest resource management variables. One graduate student worked on this project during this period.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 10/01/94 to 09/30/95
Outputs
Work has continued on developing components of a Tropical Forest Management Decision Support System. Typically in high tropical forests, there may be over 700 hundred tree species; approximately 500 of those species have been recorded and identified. The remaining species are classified as rare or confined to limited habitats; as such, they occur in very sparse representation. Thus without some form of species classification, growth and yield model development will be biased and unrepresentative. Principle component, canonical discriminant and approximate covariance estimation for clustering techniques were utilized to transform multivariate diameter increment data. The average linkage, complete linkage and Ward's minimum variance hierarchical clustering procedures were systematically implemented on each transformed multivariate data to identify the characteristics for classifying similar species into groups. Optimality was obtained with Ward's minimum variance
procedure when applied on the canonical discriminant transformed data. Six species growth classes, each having the variations within species ecology classes minimized, were developed for subsequent use in growth and yield model parameter estimation. One graduate student worked on this project during this period.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 10/01/93 to 09/30/94
Outputs
Research activities have been concentrated in the testing and verification of computer software for analyzing data from Ghana's high forests. Module CLEANIT has been developed for data storage and error screening; it includes sub-modules for (1) field data editing, 92) English imperial system of measurement to metric conversions, (3) organizing data by tropical species grouping and assessment date. Work has begun on the investigation of suitable statistical distribution models and stand level differential equation models that may be applicable with tropical forest data. The appeal of such modeling approaches is that they may be utilized in circumstances where forest stand age is indeterminable--the circumstance that exists in the majority of tropical forests. Heretofore, forest-stand management modeling has utilized descriptive stand parameters that have not provided for the passage of time. The current approach under investigation allows the introduction of elapsed
time from a given stand condition. One graduate student worked on this project during this period.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 10/01/92 to 09/30/93
Outputs
Forests and woodlands comprise 33% of Ghana's land surface. The increasing rate of deforestation in Ghana has precipitated a number of socioeconomic and environmental concerns such as the loss of agricultural, industrial and biological resources. Thus, an effort is being initiated to develop a tropical forest management decision support system. The data base for this system is a set of 700 permanent plots that were established in 1968 and periodically remeasured over the past 25 years. During the past year research activities have been concentrated in the development of computer software for the preparation of the permanent plot data. This included the following four modules: EDIT, a verification and editing process for raw data files; Metric, to convert cleaned files from the English imperial system of measurement into metric units; SORTER, to organize files by assessment date, plot and species, and to generate DBase type ASCII flat files and; MERGE to scan
successive assessments to compute increment, recruitment and mortality by species. One graduate student worked on this project in 1992-93.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 10/01/91 to 09/30/92
Outputs
Permanent plot data from demonstration woods in southern Indiana were analyzed to obtain estimates of diameter growth. Radial growth from the same plots were collected and summarized. Efforts are being directed toward developing growth models from these data that will be incorporated into a stand management and inventory analysis systems. Efforts are being directed toward tahe development of templates for popular spreadsheet software for the display and analysis of both inventory and growth data. These approaches are being channeled into small palm-top computers that are readily usable at field locations. Investigation into spatial analysis and database software for microcomputers is continuing. This is necessitated by the retirement of a VAX based Intergraph system during the year that has been used for previous work.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 10/01/90 to 09/30/91
Outputs
This project was revised with new objectives. One of the major objectives is to develop methods to describe the growth of individual hardwood trees in stands where age and site index are not directly measurable. To approach this problem, permanent plot data from demonstration woods in southern Indiana were screened and selected for the basis of the study. Selected plots were visited to collect additional information in the form of radial growth estimates from increment borings. These data are being correlated with diameter growth measurements and tree height measurements from the permanent plot remeasurement data. A second objective for this project is to develop graphical user interfaces for growth projection systems. Computer assisted software engineering tools and screen developed software have been obtained. These tools are being installed and investigated.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 10/01/89 to 09/30/90
Outputs
A procedure, using a programmable calculator, was developed that enables a forester to mark an unevenaged stand according to a prescription. The method is flexible and allows the marker to exercise professional judgement yet still obtain a residual stand with a specified diameter distribution. By using this procedure, each individual acre may not contain the prescribed diameter distribution, but the stand, as an entity, will conform. Trial applications in mixed hardwood stands demonstrate very acceptable results. As one would expect, the calculator generated cut distributions were closer to the prescribed distributions than the foresters actual marking distributions; however, there were no statistical differences between the marking and calculator-generated distributions. During the year this project was revised with objectives (1) to investigate methodology to grow individual trees in stands where age and site index are not directly ascertainable, (2) to
investigate the integration of growth and yield methodologies with spatial reference systems and, (3) to develop graphical user interfaces for forest inventory based computer software.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 10/01/88 to 09/30/89
Outputs
Work is in the completion phase on development of a procedure for achieving a specified residual diameter distribution in unevenaged stands. The procedure uses a programmable calculator to select a proportion of the trees to be removed according to a diameter class specific cutting probability. The forester has the option to override the calculator designated cut in favor of on-the-ground silvicultural considerations. Such decisions are automatically recorded in the cut account for each diameter class and are used in subsequent marking decisions. An article on the procedure is being finalized. Significant upgrades to both Intergraph and PC-based software have necessitated substantial changes to the direction of interfacing the TIMPIS software. Screen development software tools acquired recently hold promise for the completion of a PC-based graphical user interface. Also, a PC-based system compatible with Intergraph design files appears to offer an opportunity to
link inventory with a GIS based file. These interfaces are being investigated.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 10/01/87 to 09/30/88
Outputs
Work has continued on the development of a microcomputer based inventory and stand evaluation system aimed primarily at hardwoods. The system is a modification of a mainframe system that was developed earlier at Purdue. Since the original system has served as a model for several inventory processors that are currently in use by both public and private forest management organizations, it appears that a microcomputer version would greatly enhance the productivity of service foresters. Efforts would not have to be directed at learning a new system. This microcomputer version will utilize identical data collection alternatives and output options. However, digital input alternatives are being developed to increase efficiency. It is anticipated that many service foresters will have microcomputers both in their offices and in the field within the next five years. Thus, it is tremendously important that they have available alternative forestry software to effectively utilize
the hardware as well as integrate with presently available commercial presentation software. This research is aimed at filling this need. No graduate students with this project in 1987-88.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 10/01/86 to 09/30/87
Outputs
Efforts have been concentrated on the development of an interactive, microcomputer based interface for the Timber Inventory and Management Planning System. This interface will provide a cost efficient method for entering field data into the inventory processor. The input system will utilize a handheld field data recorder for the actual field collected information. The second component will be the interactive prompting for program control information and timber management options. Major emphasis has also been directed towards the establishment of a geographic data base for political boundaries, major highways, and major watercourses for Indiana and surrounding states. For Indiana, information has been obtained from the U.S. Forest Service to establish a data layer of the Forest Survey plot locations. When completed this will serve as a major research tool for growth and yeild information for the State.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 10/01/85 to 09/30/86
Outputs
Development began to quantitatively describe the individual tree diameter growthresponse in thinned hardwood stands. Investigations are proceeding to identify parameters that can be used as indicators of stand density and of relative position in the stand. The identified parameters will be incorporated into growth models that will reflect changes in the size and distribution of species that can occur in thinning. Initial application is being made with Allegheny hardwoods. Durng the year work was undertaken to develop a geographic reference file on the Intergraph system that contains the major boundaries, transportation and water features for the north central United States. It is anticipated that the 1985 Indiana Forest Survey data will be incorporated with this data base. The Timber Inventory and Management Planning Information System has been ported to an AT-compatible microcomputer system. Initial modifications indicate that TIMPIS will be operable in the
microcomputer environment. No graduate students associated with this project in 1985.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 01/01/85 to 09/30/85
Outputs
A program was developed utilizing an Evans and Sutherland PS300 color graphics terminal to display a forest stand in real time using 3-dimensional graphics. Information concerning individual trees as well as the entire stand is available to the user. An individual tree growth model was interfaced with the display model so that tree development can be displayed over time. The complex graphic image of the forest may be graphically manipulated to provide a potential forest manager the opportunity to evaluate various harvesting alternatives. Further, a stand digitizer was developed to interactively create or edit a stand data file for the graphics display processor. Collectively, the above components are the basis of an interactive timber marking simulator that allows a manager to see the results of timber harvesting in a matter of a few minutes, as opposed to years in a real world situation. No graduate students associated with this project in 1985.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 01/01/84 to 12/30/84
Outputs
Developmental work has been completed on the Timber Inventory and Management Planning Information System (TIMPIS) with the addition of a stand production and evaluation package. The addition permits the user to enter management costs and benefits associated with managing a timber stand. These values are subsequently linked with stand volumes and values from present inventory summaries as well as from growth and harvest simulation to obtain a single stand evaluation summary. Information in the summary includes present net worth and rate of return. The manager can utilize this information to evalute alternative investment opportunities. The completed system has been made operational in the state forestry divisions in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and Delaware. During the year the project was revised to change emphasis toward the integration of analytical forest management techniques with data base and graphic display technology. With this new thrust,
efforts have been directed toward training with the Intergraph software and the Intergraph System that has been recently installed in the Department.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 01/01/83 to 12/30/83
Outputs
An uneven-aged stand marking procedure was developed that allowed a desired diameter distribution to be achieved. The HP-41C programmable calculator was used to implement a method based on the proportion of trees to be removed from a diameter class. By use of the calculator, individual tree data are entered in the field and a cut or leave decision is formulated for each tree. Supporting programs provide summaries of field work. An additional research centered on the determination of an optimal diameter distribution for an uneven-aged stand. A dynamic programming algorithm was implemented to provide an optimal distribution for specified basal area and number of trees per acre and site index. Continued developmental work and implementation of the Timber Inventory and Management Planning Information System was carried out during the year. Currently, the system is installed in state forestry divisions in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and Delaware. One
graduate student on this project in 1983.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 01/01/82 to 12/30/82
Outputs
A general method for modeling growth and yield in mixed species forest stands was developed. The method depended upon the recovery of diameter distribution parameters for each species from values of forest yields at any particular time. Equations for diameter distribution change rates were derived by using moment relationships together with systems on differential equations in forest yields. The utility of the technique was demonstrated by an application to mixed species uneven-aged permanent plot data from the upper peninsula of Michigan. Hardwood and softwood were the two species groups used. For each species group, equations, which predicted change rates in basal area per acre, sum of diameters per acre, and number of trees per acre were developed. Given a set of initial stand conditions, yield predictions for future times may be obtained by numerical integration of the system. Future values of diameter distribution parameters may then be obtained by solving
the system of equations formed by equating each yield type to the product of number of trees and the expected value of the yield per tree with respect to the diameter distribution parameters. Testing of the projection technique indicated that the method is very satisfactory for conditions where species may be logically considered in two groups.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 01/01/81 to 12/30/81
Outputs
REmote terminals enable foresters to communicate with central computer facilities from field locations. This can be costly and the risk of data loss is high. To overcome these obstaacles, intelligent terminals and microcomputers are being investigated. A data terminal with bubble memory proved to be useful and efficient for entering and transmitting forest inventory data. This was accomplished by developing a series of run and prompt programs for the memory data terminal and a driver program for the host computer system. The programs for the terminal provide self-documentation to the user, prompt for landowner and forester identification, table heading and narrative information, inventory program control codes and the field data. The driver program superviese the data transmission without operator interruption, prompts for field storage options, submits the file for processing and returns the computed summaries. Currently, work is progressing on the development
of a similar system for th microcomputer.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 01/01/80 to 12/30/80
Outputs
Two stand level modeling approaches were utilized and compared for second-growthnorthern hardwood cutting level studies. The first approach, termed the component model, contains 44 first order differential equations that provide information on the attributes of number of trees, basal area and cubic-foot volume for 4 size classes and for ingrowth, mortality and survivor growth. The second approach, termed the probability density function model, consists of a set of 4 differential equations to predict the changes in the scale and slope parameters of the Weibull density function, the number of ingrowth trees and the number of mortality trees. Both models have been incorporated into a computer program named the Dual Projection System. The program will allow a forest manager to input inventory data and obtain a printed summary for the projected individual plots and for an average of all plots using either or both of the models. The probability density model more
accurately predicts number of trees per acre while the component model more accurately predicts basal area per acre. The cubic-foot predictions are close for both models. Continued refinement to the Timber Inventory and Management Planning Information System was completed during the year. Emphasis was directed toward the implementation of bubble memory terminals for efficient data input by field foresters. Preliminary efforts indicate that this new type of terminal offers a large potential for field foresters to implement inventory processing programs.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 01/01/79 to 12/30/79
Outputs
Research to extend the diameter distribution approach for yield projection to uneven-aged forest stands culminated in the development of a generalized diameter distribution project model. Under this model, yield prediction relies upon numerical integration of a simultaneous set of differential equations representling the average annual changes in (1) the parameters of the probability density function (p.d.f.) used to characterize the diameter distribution and, (2) the number of trees per acre. The generalized model provides the necessary framework for application in both even-aged and uneven-aged forest stands. It was shown that models currently used in even-aged stands represent a direct application of the time-integrated form of the generalized model. A revised program provides timber inventory and management planning information for woodland ownerships. This program is suitable for all classes of ownership and has added the provision for stratified sampling.
Work is processing to add several alternative output options as well as cutting options. Additional modifications were made in the elm-ash-cottonwood compatible growth and yield model for use in Indiana. Presently yield tables have been developed for number of trees and basal area for this forest type.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 07/01/73 to 09/30/78
Outputs
The basic objective of this project is to provide methodology for the application of quantitative techniques to the management of small, non-industrial ownerships. Several important contributions have been made and are summarized below. A simple stochastic model to predict future diameter distributions, number of survivor and mortality trees and the species distribution has been developed. It utilized Markov chains and data from the remeasurement of permanent inventory plots. An accompanying computer program was also developed to aid users in application of the technique. In a continuing effort to provide techniques for the management of uneven-aged stands, a method was developed to specify an inverse J-shaped diameter distribution with a given density expressed as basal area, tree-area ratio or crown competition factor. For the 1/2 million acres of elm-ash-cottonwood commercial forest type in Indiana, compatible growth and yield models were developed to predict
basal area and number of trees over a 25 year period for various initial stand conditions. An inventory and management planning program has been developed and is currently being implemented. In addition to summarizing inventory data, the program provides estimated of stand value, an economic analysis, growth projection and series of stand harvesting simulators.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 01/01/77 to 12/30/77
Outputs
Development of a recreation information system has been completed. It utilizes a network data management system to store and retrieve data items. The information system is utilized through several application programs that are interfaced with an English-like query analyzer. Information is provided for all of Indiana's recreational facilities and for the recreational activities of 5000 Indiana residents. Currently, the system is being utilized by the Indiana Department of Outdoor Recreation. Developmental work is continuing on the automated management planning system that provides inventory and stand analysis for small woodland ownerships. Emphasis is directed toward increased flexibility in the cutting strategy simulators and toward increased efficiency in the utilization of computing resources. A technique was proposed to efficiently estimate volume per acre in even-aged forest stands from point sampling inventories. The method utilizes individual tree volume
equations expressed as a function of diameter squared and stand parameters. The method, termed enumerative inventory, requires multiplying a count of sample trees times a constant to estimate volume per acre.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 01/01/76 to 12/30/76
Outputs
Extensive modification and expansion of the inventory processing program utilized in Indiana's Cooperative Forest Management Program has produced a management planning tool for the small woodland owner. In addition to the summarization of plot, point or complete enumeration forest inventory data, the new system provides (1) an estimate of value based upon the quality index concept, (2) a series of cutting strategy simulators, (3) an economic analysis, (4) growth projection, and (5) listings of possible markets. This woodland planning system is currently being introduced to personnel of the Indiana Department of Natural Resources for field testing.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
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Progress 01/01/75 to 12/30/75
Outputs
To manage an uneven-aged forest stand, it is desirable to specify a diameter distribution in relation to stand density for given forest types, sites and product objectives. However, it is not readily apparent how to relate density tothe diameter distribution. A unified method has been developed for relating the inversed J-shaped diameter distribution to density expressed as basal area, tree-area ratio or crown competition factor. Programming has been completed on an automated management planning system for the small-woodland owner. In addition to summarizing basic forest inventory data, this system calculates growth estimates by projecting a tree list, provides stand evaluations and specise & thier hybrids. Two additional tests were established to determine groestimates of financial returns under various management strategies, and finally a basic summary report is generated for the landowner. The system is currentlyundergoing extensive verification in preparation
for field testing with the Indiana Department of Natural Resources.
Impacts
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Progress 01/01/74 to 12/30/74
Outputs
An automatic computation system was developed to efficiently utilize summary data from permanent growth plots for the prediction of diameter distribution andspecies composition in uneven-aged forest stands. The system is based upon the partitioning of the data into tolerance classes for the development of individual stochastic models with stationary probabilities. Utilizing long termpermanent plot data, results indicate that the method provides good accuracy forat least two multiples of the remeasurement period. Emphasis is being directed towards the establishment of a management planning system for the small woodlandowner. Also included in this system will be the ability to evaluate a forest stand that has been subjected to the effects of injurious agents. This system implements commonly used inventory methods and economic analyses to provide decision-making information. It is anticipated that field testing of this system will begin next year.
Impacts
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Publications
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Progress 01/01/73 to 12/30/73
Outputs
A simple stochastic model to predict future diameter distributions, number of survivor trees, number of mortality trees, and number of harvested trees was developed from conventional continuous forest inventory data. Prediction with the model is limited to multiples of remeasurement period that was utilized to develop the matrix of transitional probabilities. Data used to construct the model and test its predictive ability came from 19 consecutive years of C.F.I measurements collected in Washington County, Wisconsin. Results indicate that number of survivor trees can be predicted with very good accuracy; predictions of diameter distributions, number of mortality trees, and number of harvested trees are less accurate. Ease of application is a major benefit of the model; its use depends on at least two C.F.I measurements and a knowledge of elementarymatrix operations.
Impacts
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Publications
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Progress 01/01/72 to 12/30/72
Outputs
A system of seven first order differential equations were developed to predict the components of net growth for number of trees and basal area in forest stands. The mortality equation was expressed with a stochastic variable while the remaining six equations were deterministic. Data from a 6-year period were utilized to estimate coefficients for the system. Thirteen successive years of historical data were subsequently used to compare observed and predicted future states of the system. The proposed method adequately estimated per-acre values for the components under consideration. Organizations that maintain permanent growth plots may utilize the developed methodology to produce unique growth functions for the evaluation of management planning alternatives. Currently, systems are being developed for industrial and governmental agencies.
Impacts
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Publications
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Progress 01/01/71 to 12/30/71
Outputs
A system of differential equations were developed to characterize the progressive change in the growth components for number of trees and basal area in an uneven-aged forest stand. Long term permanent plot data were utilized forparameter estimation and for testing the predicative quality of the system. Within the bounds of the available data, results indicate that both basal area and number of trees can be adequately predicted for the short term management planning period. Currently efforts are being directed towards (1) the acquisition of data for testing long term predictions, (2) the development of equations for distributing the components with respect to size classes, and (3) application of the methodology to even-aged stands.
Impacts
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Publications
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Progress 01/01/70 to 12/30/70
Outputs
During the past year permanent plot summarization procedures were programmed to obtain independent and dependent variables for growth model construction. Two extensive sets of permanent plot data from Michigan and Wisconsin were processedto get variables for both deterministic and stochastic models. Deterministic variables stress the transition of stand attributes through successive size classes. In considering stand development over time, it is obvious that many natural processes are the result of random effects; mortality is an example. Therefore, programs were developed to summarize long term measurements to obtaininsight into the underlying distributions governing these phenomena. It is anticipated that these data will be utilized to develop a dynamic stand development system. Currently markov processes and quasilinearization are beinginvestigated as possible analytic methods in growth modeling.
Impacts
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Publications
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Progress 01/01/69 to 12/30/69
Outputs
Growth models using a system of linear differential equations were tested with limited permanent plot data from Indiana woodlands. The results indicated that (1) a system of equations provides a realistic representation of the stand development process, (2) from the biological viewpoint, time dependent yield functions may be more adequately represented by nonlinear models and (3) comprehensive tests are dependent upon more extensive data. Additional permanent plot data has been obtained through the cooperative efforts of the North Central Forest Experiment Station. These data have been compiled and screened for inconsistencies. Currently, summarization procedures are being programmed to utilize these data for testing additional models. Also, a variable metric minimization procedure with the option of imposing linear constraints is being investigated as a method of parameter estimation.
Impacts
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Progress 01/01/68 to 12/30/68
Outputs
A model capable of predicting growth and development by size classes was devisedto facilitate intelligent management planning in even-aged stands. This model, an autonomous system of ten simultaneous first-order difference equations, was based on vertical stratification of the forest into height classes. The coefficient matrix of the system was in almost upper triangular form, there being one sub-diagonal. The elements on the sub- and main-diagonals indicated the potential capacity of the main-diagonal components to increase. The super-diagonal coefficients indicated how much the potential growth of a component was inhibited by the presence of volume in each of the components corresponding to a position of greater height. Model application involved iterating from a known ten by one column vector of standing crop volumes. With known initial conditions, the predicted and actual standing crop volumes were compared for each of 66 permanent plots over a three year
growth period.
Impacts
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