Non Technical Summary
Numerous studies show that the land sector - through carbon sequestration and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage - provides a critical link to a world that limits temperature change to 1.5°C. However, research also shows that increasing levels of dieback and disturbance (e.g., fires) pose a substantial risk to forests, while changes in crop yields could alter the amount of land used for crops, imperiling carbon currently stored in forests. Despite the scale of possible policy action, which could increase forestland by hundreds of millions of hectares and shift the global pattern of food production, the current literature has not considered whether climate risks affect thesustainability of coordinated global action taken through the Paris Agreement. Accounting for climate impacts in forest and agricultural systems requires development of new integrated modeling systems capable of capturing (1) intertemporal adaptation to climate change (e.g., the response of markets to stock effects like dieback); (2) regional differences that affect the flow of commodities;and (3) land market interactions. This research innovates by developing a novel dynamic optimization model of the global forest and agricultural sectors with 16 political regions, and up to 16 biomes (distinct ecoregions) in each region. We integrate new climate change impact estimates in forestry and agriculture, and calibrate our model with national forest inventory data to avoid problems identified in current Integrated Assessment Models. By systematically assessing alternative policy approaches, we better understand how climate change influences the future provision of large-scale land-based carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere.

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
605	0430	3010	75%
123	0430	1070	25%

Knowledge Area
605 - Natural Resource and Environmental Economics; 123 - Management and Sustainability of Forest Resources;

Subject Of Investigation
0430 - Climate;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology; 3010 - Economics;

Goals / Objectives
This project seeks to developa new structural dynamic optimization model of global agricultural and forest systems and markets (including a bioenergy sector), integratethe model with new climate impact data in forestry and agriculture, and conducts policy analysis to determine how US and agricultural commodity competitor region mitigation and bioenergy supply potential may be affected by climate change. To accomplish this, we will (1) compile a novel dataset on global forest and agricultural systems for global modeling analysis (2) compile MC2 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) results and develop an approach to integrate the results into a new forest and agricultural model; (3)compile agirucltural impact estimates from the GGCMI database for use in the forest and agricultural model; (4) develop a forest and agricultural model; and (5)conduct policy anlaysis that illustrates how climate change impacts interact with policy objectives in US and global forest and agricultural land uses.

Project Methods
Key methods:1) Online data collection, cleaning and assembly for use in model, including land use data, forest inventory data, gridded crop yield impact data, and other sources.2) MC2 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model development and analysis.3) General Algegraic Modeling System (GAMS)model development and dynamic optimization.4) Database development.