Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS
410 MRAK HALL
DAVIS,CA 95616-8671
Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
Among scientific and public spheres, a common narrative is that warming temperatures will exacerbate pest problems in crops. However, this conviction is largely based on scientific studies that are performed under controlled laboratory conditions or that use predictive theoretical models instead of using real field populations. Additionally, the few studies that have been conducted in the field are severely limited in scope in terms of the number of years, species, and crops examined. As a result, we have yet to understand how climate warming is actually affecting most pest populations in crop fields, and subsequently, how climate warming will affect food security in the coming years.To address these questions, we will investigate the effects of climate warming on a suite of crop-associated arthropods using a novel approach called ecoinformatics. This method harnesses long-term data originally collected by pest control advisors that work for crop growers, which we then repurposed for scientific research. There are many benefits of this approach, but most notable is the size of the dataset, which extends across continents and years.Using this dataset, we will analyze the relationship between warming temperatures and abundances of over 25 pest and beneficial arthropod species to determine which species populations increase in response to warming. This will allow us to identify a set of pests whose damage potential we expect to intensify in coming years, which we can then share with farmers and researchers to help direct research and pest management efforts in areas where it will be most needed. Additionally, we will determine if certain species traits can explain these observed population changes in response to warming in the field. These findings will build the foundation of a predictive, trait-based framework for integrated pest management to better mitigate and prevent crop loss in a warming world.
Animal Health Component
50%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
50%
Applied
50%
Developmental
0%
Goals / Objectives
The major goals of this project are two-fold: 1) to develop an improved fundamental understanding of how and why warming climates will shape future pest and natural enemy ecology in agriculture; and 2) to identify a set of pests whose damage potential we expect to intensify in coming years. Sharing this knowledge with farmers and researchers will help to direct research and pest management efforts in areas where it will be most needed. The specific objectives we will undertake to accomplish these goals include: 1) to characterize the effects of warming climate on populations of seven beneficial insect species and seven of their target pests for three major crops across Californiaand Spain; 2) to compare how one key natural enemy, Chrysoperla carnea, responds to warmingclimate across five cropping systems; and 3) to determine the role of thermal ecology in insect population responses to warming climate for a set of 25 natural enemy and pest species.
Project Methods
This project will be conducted using a novel method called ecoinformatics. This approach harnesses multiple long-term datasets that were originally collected by pest control advisors to guide the timing of pest management. This spatially and temporally large, repurposed dataset provides us with a rare opportunity to examine the impacts of warming climate on populations of over 25 pest and beneficial arthropod species in the field.We aim to accomplish three objectives: 1) to characterize the effects of warming climate on populations of seven beneficial insect species and seven of their target pests for three major crops across California and Spain; 2) to compare how one key natural enemy, Chrysoperla carnea, responds to warming climate across five cropping systems; and 3) to determine the role of thermal ecology in insect population responses to warming climate for a set of 25 natural enemy and pest species.To do this, we will first standardize our datasets across several metrics so that results are comparable across species and crops. These metrics include: 1) the window of time from which we pulled climate data (across crops); 2) the sampling window of arthropod observations (across species); 3) the minimum threshold number of arthropod observations in a given field; 4) the arthropod observation data distributions (through log transformation); and 5) the type of arthropod observation variable used (abundance). Next, we will use generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) implemented in the R package lme4 to examine the relationship between warming temperatures and arthropod populations in the field. To make the analysis more robust, we will use variation in annual mean temperatures during the growing season across space and time (years). This first analysis (objective 1) will result in regression coefficients (βtemp) for each species that will indicate whether they respond positively to warmer temperatures (+βtemp) or negatively to warmer temperatures (-βtemp). We will use these results to create a distribution of responses for pests and beneficials to assess if pest problems across the focal species will generally worsen or show mixed outcomes. For the second analysis (objective 2), we will use the same linear model as objective 1 to examine if one key natural enemy, Chrysoperla carnea, responds consistently to warming temperatures across five major crops. These models will also result in a regression coefficient (βtemp) which we can then compare between cropping systems. For the final analysis (objective 3), we will use a different GLMM to examine if thermal optima in relation to ambient temperatures (Topt-Tamb) are strongly correlated with how field populations are responding to warming temperatures from objective 1 (βtemp).The project efforts that will effect change in knowledge, action, and condition include publication of our results in scientific journals (change in knowledge and condition), presenting at scientific conferences (change in knowledge and condition), and giving extension talks to crop growers and pest control agents (change in action). To evaluate project efforts towards changes in knowledge and condition, we will: 1) conduct an annual "overview" meeting with the Primary Mentor and Advisory Committee to ensure adherence to grant timelines; 2) carry out the UC Davis annual normative progress review; 3) share results and obstacles at the departmental Insect Ecology Discussion Group meetings to solicit feedback from other faculty and graduate students; 4) submit two to three manuscripts to peer-reviewed journals over the course of the remaining doctoral degree; and 5) present talks at conferences including the Entomological Society of America and the Ecological Society of America. To evaluate project efforts towards a change in action, we will: 1) publish our findings; and 2) present talks at extension events for crop growers and pest control agents.