Source: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS submitted to NRP
A BIG DATA APPROACH TO CHARACTERIZING IMPACTS OF WARMING CLIMATE ON BIOLOGICAL CONTROL SYSTEMS
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
ACTIVE
Funding Source
AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1032581
Grant No.
2024-67011-42920
Cumulative Award Amt.
$120,000.00
Proposal No.
2023-11777
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Aug 13, 2024
Project End Date
Aug 12, 2026
Grant Year
2024
Program Code
[A7101]- AFRI Predoctoral Fellowships
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS
410 MRAK HALL
DAVIS,CA 95616-8671
Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
Among scientific and public spheres, a common narrative is that warming temperatures will exacerbate pest problems in crops. However, this conviction is largely based on scientific studies that are performed under controlled laboratory conditions or that use predictive theoretical models instead of using real field populations. Additionally, the few studies that have been conducted in the field are severely limited in scope in terms of the number of years, species, and crops examined. As a result, we have yet to understand how climate warming is actually affecting most pest populations in crop fields, and subsequently, how climate warming will affect food security in the coming years.To address these questions, we will investigate the effects of climate warming on a suite of crop-associated arthropods using a novel approach called ecoinformatics. This method harnesses long-term data originally collected by pest control advisors that work for crop growers, which we then repurposed for scientific research. There are many benefits of this approach, but most notable is the size of the dataset, which extends across continents and years.Using this dataset, we will analyze the relationship between warming temperatures and abundances of over 25 pest and beneficial arthropod species to determine which species populations increase in response to warming. This will allow us to identify a set of pests whose damage potential we expect to intensify in coming years, which we can then share with farmers and researchers to help direct research and pest management efforts in areas where it will be most needed. Additionally, we will determine if certain species traits can explain these observed population changes in response to warming in the field. These findings will build the foundation of a predictive, trait-based framework for integrated pest management to better mitigate and prevent crop loss in a warming world.
Animal Health Component
50%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
50%
Applied
50%
Developmental
0%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
21131101130100%
Knowledge Area
211 - Insects, Mites, and Other Arthropods Affecting Plants;

Subject Of Investigation
3110 - Insects;

Field Of Science
1130 - Entomology and acarology;
Goals / Objectives
The major goals of this project are two-fold: 1) to develop an improved fundamental understanding of how and why warming climates will shape future pest and natural enemy ecology in agriculture; and 2) to identify a set of pests whose damage potential we expect to intensify in coming years. Sharing this knowledge with farmers and researchers will help to direct research and pest management efforts in areas where it will be most needed. The specific objectives we will undertake to accomplish these goals include: 1) to characterize the effects of warming climate on populations of seven beneficial insect species and seven of their target pests for three major crops across Californiaand Spain; 2) to compare how one key natural enemy, Chrysoperla carnea, responds to warmingclimate across five cropping systems; and 3) to determine the role of thermal ecology in insect population responses to warming climate for a set of 25 natural enemy and pest species.
Project Methods
This project will be conducted using a novel method called ecoinformatics. This approach harnesses multiple long-term datasets that were originally collected by pest control advisors to guide the timing of pest management. This spatially and temporally large, repurposed dataset provides us with a rare opportunity to examine the impacts of warming climate on populations of over 25 pest and beneficial arthropod species in the field.We aim to accomplish three objectives: 1) to characterize the effects of warming climate on populations of seven beneficial insect species and seven of their target pests for three major crops across California and Spain; 2) to compare how one key natural enemy, Chrysoperla carnea, responds to warming climate across five cropping systems; and 3) to determine the role of thermal ecology in insect population responses to warming climate for a set of 25 natural enemy and pest species.To do this, we will first standardize our datasets across several metrics so that results are comparable across species and crops. These metrics include: 1) the window of time from which we pulled climate data (across crops); 2) the sampling window of arthropod observations (across species); 3) the minimum threshold number of arthropod observations in a given field; 4) the arthropod observation data distributions (through log transformation); and 5) the type of arthropod observation variable used (abundance). Next, we will use generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) implemented in the R package lme4 to examine the relationship between warming temperatures and arthropod populations in the field. To make the analysis more robust, we will use variation in annual mean temperatures during the growing season across space and time (years). This first analysis (objective 1) will result in regression coefficients (βtemp) for each species that will indicate whether they respond positively to warmer temperatures (+βtemp) or negatively to warmer temperatures (-βtemp). We will use these results to create a distribution of responses for pests and beneficials to assess if pest problems across the focal species will generally worsen or show mixed outcomes. For the second analysis (objective 2), we will use the same linear model as objective 1 to examine if one key natural enemy, Chrysoperla carnea, responds consistently to warming temperatures across five major crops. These models will also result in a regression coefficient (βtemp) which we can then compare between cropping systems. For the final analysis (objective 3), we will use a different GLMM to examine if thermal optima in relation to ambient temperatures (Topt-Tamb) are strongly correlated with how field populations are responding to warming temperatures from objective 1 (βtemp).The project efforts that will effect change in knowledge, action, and condition include publication of our results in scientific journals (change in knowledge and condition), presenting at scientific conferences (change in knowledge and condition), and giving extension talks to crop growers and pest control agents (change in action). To evaluate project efforts towards changes in knowledge and condition, we will: 1) conduct an annual "overview" meeting with the Primary Mentor and Advisory Committee to ensure adherence to grant timelines; 2) carry out the UC Davis annual normative progress review; 3) share results and obstacles at the departmental Insect Ecology Discussion Group meetings to solicit feedback from other faculty and graduate students; 4) submit two to three manuscripts to peer-reviewed journals over the course of the remaining doctoral degree; and 5) present talks at conferences including the Entomological Society of America and the Ecological Society of America. To evaluate project efforts towards a change in action, we will: 1) publish our findings; and 2) present talks at extension events for crop growers and pest control agents.

Progress 08/13/24 to 08/12/25

Outputs
Target Audience:During this reporting period (2024-08-13 to 2025-07-07), my project efforts have positioned me to reach two primary target audiences: the scientific research community and agricultural practitioners. All data preparation and statistical analyses for this project are complete, and I am currently preparing to disseminate our findings at two upcoming conferences: the Entomological Society of America meetings in Baltimore, MD (August 2025) and Portland, OR (November 2025). At these conferences, I will present our research findings to scientific audiences specializing in agroecology, entomology, and climate change research. These attendees include academic researchers, graduate students, and government scientists who study pest ecology and agricultural systems. Simultaneously, I am preparing the first manuscript for publication, which we aim to submit to a high-impact journal. Once published, this work will reach a broader scientific audience and will be of particular interest to pest control agents, agricultural extension specialists, and land managers who implement research findings into practical agricultural management strategies, especially under changing climate conditions. This research ultimately helps identify which pest species we expect to become most damaging in coming years and establishes the foundation for a predictive framework to guide future pest management efforts. Through these dissemination channels, our work will reach both the academic community that advances fundamental knowledge in pest ecology and the applied community that translates this research into actionable management practices for agricultural producers. Changes/Problems:We have made some slight changes throughout the course of the project period based on the reality of our dataset and certain limitations. Our original objectives were to: 1) characterize the effects of warming climate on populations of seven beneficial insect species and seven of their target pests for three major crops across California and Spain; 2) compare how one key natural enemy, Chrysoperla carnea, responds to warming climate across five cropping systems; and 3) determine the role of thermal ecology in insect population responses to warming climate for a set of 25 natural enemy and pest species. Objective 1: For objective 1, we instead characterized the effects of temperature on 11 natural enemy species (13 populations total, with one natural enemy having repeat populations across multiple crops) and 28 pest species (for a total of 30 populations with two species occurring in both regions, CA and Spain). While the specific natural enemies do not align with specific pest targets (all of the natural enemies we had sufficient data for were generalists), we actually expanded our scope substantially, which allows us to make broader generalizations and extrapolations about the effects of temperature on agricultural arthropods. Objective 2: For objective 2, while we did complete this analysis, we realized that comparison of a natural enemy across three crops is not the most robust way to validate our results. Instead, we are focusing on the comparison of populations that occur across both geographic regions (CA and Spain) for two pest populations that are repeated in both places. This approach provides a much more robust validation that the results we are observing represent real temperature effects rather than confounding factors. Objective 3: For objective 3, we accomplished this objective and added additional traits of interest. We included life history traits such as voltinism, phylogenetic relationships, body size, and others to understand if there may be more nuanced or interactive effects between thermal traits and life history characteristics. Overall, the changes were slight modifications that represent improvements to the original approach rather than fundamental departures from our research goals. These adjustments were made based on data availability and methodological considerations that enhance the robustness of our findings. We are still able to successfully achieve all of our major goals during this project period, and the modifications have actually strengthened our ability to draw meaningful conclusions about climate-pest dynamics in agricultural systems. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This project has provided extensive opportunities for training and professional development across multiple domains essential for academic career advancement. Training Activities: The project has facilitated significant mentoring relationships and skill development. I have worked closely with my faculty advisors and collaborators to develop advanced statistical analysis techniques for large-scale ecological datasets, including big data approaches to pest ecology and climate modeling. I have refined my expertise in R programming, GIS methods, and various statistical approaches for analyzing complex ecological data. Additionally, I have gained valuable training in scientific writing and manuscript preparation through collaborative work on publications, with guidance from experienced researchers in developing clear, impactful scientific communication. I have also provided training to others, working with an undergraduate mentee to help them develop skills in R programming, GIS methods, scientific writing, data management, and statistical analysis techniques. This mentoring experience has strengthened my own teaching and leadership abilities while contributing to the next generation of researchers in agroecology. Professional Development Activities: The fellowship has supported significant leadership development, a key component of my professional growth. Since receiving this award, I have been honored with the Entomological Society of America Student Leadership Award, which acknowledges students for their outstanding contributions to the field and demonstrates the leadership skills I have developed during this project period. Through manuscript preparation and other publication activities for collaborators, I have developed expertise in scientific communication and peer review processes. This experience has been instrumental in preparing me for an academic career focused on research and teaching in global change impacts on agroecosystems. The project has also supported my continued involvement in diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives through the DEIB department committee, enhancing my teaching and mentoring skills while contributing to inclusive excellence in STEM education. These leadership and service experiences have provided valuable insight into academic administration and the responsibilities of faculty positions. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?During the next reporting period, I will focus on disseminating the completed research findings to achieve the project's overarching goals of improving fundamental understanding of climate-pest dynamics and identifying priority species for future management attention. Conference Presentations: I will present our research findings at two major scientific conferences: the Entomological Society of America meetings in Baltimore, MD (August 2025) and Portland, OR (November 2025). These presentations will reach key audiences including academic researchers, graduate students, and government scientists specializing in agroecology, entomology, and climate change research. The conferences will provide opportunities to share our findings on how warming climates will shape future pest and natural enemy ecology in agriculture, directly addressing our first major goal. Manuscript Publication: I will submit our first manuscript to Science, a high-impact journal that will ensure broad dissemination of our findings to the international scientific community. This publication will present our comprehensive analysis of temperature effects on pest and beneficial insect populations across California and Spain, along with part of our thermal trait analysis findings. The bulk of the thermal trait analysis will be published in a separate article, allowing for more detailed presentation of each component of our research. Through these dissemination efforts, I will ensure that our research reaches both the scientific community that advances fundamental ecological knowledge and the applied community of pest control agents, agricultural extension specialists, and land managers who translate research into practical management strategies. This dual approach will maximize the impact of our findings on both scientific understanding and agricultural practice. I will continue my leadership roles and mentoring activities to further develop skills essential for my academic career goals, including maintaining my position on the UC Davis Entomology DEIB departmental committee and working with undergraduates to develop their research skills.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? I have made major accomplishments across both major goals and all specific objectives during the current reporting period (2024-08-13 to 2025-07-07). Beginning with the specific objectives, I have completed all three. First, I characterized the effects of temperature (variation measured across space and time) on pest and beneficial insect populations from California and Spain. Second, we compared how Chrysoperla carnea responds to warming across multiple cropping systems. Third, we completed our trait analysis to determine whether thermal traits can explain the population responses observed in our focal species dataset. Regarding the major goals, our high-impact manuscript describes how our findings will improve fundamental understanding of how and why temperatures shape pest and natural enemy abundance in agroecosystems across temperate cropping systems. We have identified, from our focal species set, which species are likely to cause exacerbated damage to crops under continued warming. All data preparation and statistical analyses for all objectives are complete. The final stages of preparation for dissemination to wider audiences will fulfill our overarching goals to improve the fundamental ecological understanding underpinning food security in a warming world. Through our completed analyses, we have successfullydeveloped improved understanding of climate-pest dynamics and identified priority pest species for future management attention, directly addressing both major project goals. Our work provides the scientific foundation needed to guide targeted research and pest management efforts where they will be most critical under changing climate conditions.

Publications