Recipient Organization
MICHIGAN STATE UNIV
(N/A)
EAST LANSING,MI 48824
Performing Department
FORESTRY
Non Technical Summary
This project examines how small businesses that use biomass to create such products as premium soils for potting, greenhouses, and landscaping intersect with future large-scale need for sustainable aviation fuel. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is this proposal's target product, recognizing that the aviation industry has no other renewable options as hydrogen fueled and battery electric passenger jets are not near-term technologies. Social impacts of SAF adoption have been understudied, and the crossover with small biomass stakeholders is almost completely unexplored. This study will explore and quantify how networks of organizations may build a market through pre-competitive collaboration at a local and national scale to develop standards for sustainable aviation fuel. Specifically, we will use a case comparison approach to 1) analyze the market for a range of bioproducts, 2) perform a market development analysis, 3) complete a process analysis including time and motion studies, and 4) use insights from the case comparison and specific policy scenarios to run life cycle analyses (LCA) and techno-economic analyses (TEA) and perform agent-based modeling simulation. Through the research objectives above and real world case studies, we will better understand how to scale emerging markets, processes, and technologies for low-carbon processing of biomass waste. We will develop a nationally-relevant theoretical framework for distributed business models, such as depots, for carbon neutrality.
Animal Health Component
50%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
50%
Applied
50%
Developmental
(N/A)
Goals / Objectives
The over-arching goal of this research is to stimulate a just and resilient bioeconomy by first supporting Sustainable Aviation Fuel production through existing small businesses in the biomass supply chain. Supporting objectives are to:Model new organizations, system designs, and re-imagine the workforceConduct social LCA centering on justice and equityPerform environmental LCA and interpret the resultsFormulate market segmentation and technoeconomic analysisRe-envision policy environmentEngage stakeholders and communicate results
Project Methods
Obj 1: To understand how to develop distributed business models for carbon neutrality, an interdisciplinary approach will be used to study nascent markets for biomass waste and commodity products. We will use mixed methods, combining qualitative research with simulation models to evaluate inputs (e.g. residue plant biomass, biosolids, coffee grounds, breweries, livestock manure); technical processes (e.g. pyrolysis, anaerobic digestion, hydrotreating); and products (e.g. biochar and other byproducts for biofuel and agricultural applications). The first task will analyze the market at a regional scale, combining qualitative data from interviews and observations with archival data from news, reports, and other media. The second task would be a market development analysis: scenario development, business case analysis, prototype designs, and sensitivity analysis. We will use insights from the market analysis to design prototypes for low carbon biomass waste-to-product processes in diverse locales (e.g. urban vs. rural; different available waste streams) and propose a 5-10 year plan for a distributed network of local markets. The third task is to determine the employment skills and training opportunities that are needed to successfully establish a circular biomass waste market. The final task consists of a simulation analysis of biomass waste and low-carbon futures. Simulation enables us to envision various "imagined futures" and analyze policy implications, climate impacts, equity, and market conditions. The simulation framework and design would be informed by the other task in this research (e.g what policies to evaluate, what stakeholders to measure, what processes are feasible). The model analysis enables comparison of different prototypes and consideration of diverse market environments. This analysis strengthens our understanding of how a distributed business model may have distinct local components, and which components are best situated for which environments. We would also develop a teaching case for a class on complex systems, with the aim of integrating climate change considerations into non-environment courses.Obj 2:A Social Life Cycle Analysis (SLCA) specifically focuses on the social dimensions and implications of the life cycle of a product or activity. To quantify the social consequences and impacts of our scenarios (and associated products), we will formulate and implement a survey to collect demographic, salary, and working conditions from small businesses that currently use biomass to make products such as potting soils, biochar, and mulch. Our team will also conduct Subject Matter Expert (SME) interviews to quantify the social impacts identified in the data collection phase. The team will combine survey data and SME interview data to create social impact indicators to measure and compare different impacts. Normalization and weighting will be applied to the social impact indicators to provide a more comprehensive assessment, allowing the prioritization of the most significant social impacts. Finally, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses will be run on all parameters. We will ensure that our analysis adheres to relevant standards or guidelines, such as those outlined in ISO 14040 and ISO 14044 for life cycle assessment.Obj 3: Environmental impacts will be quantified using life cycle assessment (LCA), including its four phases as per ISO14040/44:2006:goal and scope definition, inventory analysis, impact assessment, and interpretation. For each project scenario (and all sub-scenarios), we will include every system component needed to make and deliver premium soil blends, biochar, and SAF. The LCA will provide the foundation for assessing contrasting material and feed production scenarios, such as the environmental burdens of Scenario's 1-3, including sub-scenarios that evaluate centralized vs. decentralized systems, and sub-scenarios that compare systems fueled and powered by fossil and renewable energy sources. We will conduct LCA using the SimaPro PhD software package along with GREET 2023, the USDA LCA Commons, and academic and trade literature. Data quality indicators will be included as part of the life cycle inventory using a modified Weidema method. Carbon flux through each system component will be itemized and emissions converted to CO2 equivalents using the Global Warming Potential specified by EPA TRACI 2.1. We will conduct LCA using the SimaPro PhD software package along with GREET 2023, the USDA LCA Commons, and academic and trade literature.Obj 4:The "Imagined Futures" simulation outcomes from Milestone 2 will be used to model different supply/demand curves for various products and customer demands. These analyses will be used to develop multiple scenarios for market segmentation, including an evaluation of potential "tipping points" for adoption of new processing technologies and products. By integrating agent based modeling approaches with LCA, the simulations can be used to evaluate different market segments and potential synergies and competition between segments. Further, the model will be used to develop multiple future scenarios in short and long term to inform potential market growth. Technoeconomic analysis will be conducted at MSU to determine the costs and profits attributable to biomass conversion into SAF. AspenPlus process simulation software will be used in conjunction with Matlab and MS Excel to construct a process model based on mass and energy balances that was also used to conduct social and environmental LCA in Objectives 2 and 3. Social and environmental LCA impacts will be included with TEA to gauge the three classical pillars of sustainability. These outputs will be subjected to multi-objective function optimization to elucidate operating regimes that minimize environmental harm and economic costs while maximizing stakeholder profitability and social justice and mobility. When completed, our proposed modeling framework will inform decision makers and stakeholders that operate compositing facilities of the optimal approach for triple-bottom line value addition. Obj 5: Several policies will be examined by this project, including feedstock subsidies, output incentives, and capital grants.Risk reduction policies, such as the federal government serving as a loan guarantor will also be considered, though not monetarily.Output incentives, such as EPA RINs (Renewable Identification Numbers), pays the SAF producer for fuel sold. Reducing LCA emissions relative to petroleum counterparts is also an output incentive, as is the case for the California LCFS (Low Carbon Fuel Standard) and the ICAO-CORSIA policy. Feedstock subsidies will also be included to reduce the cost of delivered raw feedstock to either the depots or directly to the central refinery. Government capital grants, used to lower facility construction costs, usually in the first year of facility construction. Stacking these policies, showing the negated costs attributable to each, will decrease the SAF selling price predicted by the technoeconomic analysis completed in Objective 4. Emission values from main and sub-scenarios obtained from Objective 3 will be used to determine the magnitude of the output incentives as per current EPA RIN, California LCFS, and ICAO-CORSIA policies. Incentive values in these policies will be subjected to sensitivity analysis to observe effects on selling price. In this analysis, selling price will include a fixed internal rate of return (e.g. 10%), to compute the minimum selling price. These values be compared to market selling prices to adjust the internal rate of return for changing profitability expectations. From these analyses, adjustments to RIN, LCFS, and CORSIA policies will be recommended with the aim of increasing SAF market share.