Source: UNIV OF MARYLAND submitted to NRP
LONG-TERM PLACEMAKING IN RURAL COMMUNITIES: EVIDENCE FROM COUNTY SEAT WARS
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
ACTIVE
Funding Source
AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1030632
Grant No.
2023-67024-40095
Cumulative Award Amt.
$299,991.00
Proposal No.
2022-10202
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Jun 1, 2023
Project End Date
May 31, 2026
Grant Year
2023
Program Code
[A1661]- Innovation for Rural Entrepreneurs and Communities
Recipient Organization
UNIV OF MARYLAND
(N/A)
COLLEGE PARK,MD 20742
Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
Rural American communities have faced significant population decline in recent decades. This project explores the historical factors supporting population growth and placemaking in these areas. It specificallystudies how 1800s elections that determined county seats (capitals) fostered durable economic and population growth. Although historically local governments provided relatively few jobs, the status obtained from winning a county seat greatly increased migration and typically made county seats the largest communities in their area. By studying elections that were decided by a small number of votes and were effectively decided at random, this study will separate correlation from causation in this important event that had long-term implications for where people reside today.The longer-term goal for this project is to use these analyses to inform policymakers and the public about thesources of community growth and resilience over very long periods of 100+ years.
Animal Health Component
10%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
60%
Applied
10%
Developmental
30%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
80360503010100%
Knowledge Area
803 - Sociological and Technological Change Affecting Individuals, Families, and Communities;

Subject Of Investigation
6050 - Communities, areas, and regions;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;
Goals / Objectives
The project will address the Rural Economic Development (A1661) Priority by developing a detailed picture of long-run placemaking processes. In the period of frontier settlement, the prestige of securing a county seat of government usually led winning towns to become their counties' largest communities. This setting can thus reveal how the county seat generated placemaking assets that facilitated resident attraction, retention, and long-run economic development. The use of empirically rigorous RD methodology will allow us to establish the causal effects of this historical event on placemaking.The project's broad goals will be achieved via the following objectives:(1) Measurements: Collect preliminary outcome data on modern and historical placemaking assets including (a) cultural amenities (b) social capital and networks (c) public infrastructure (d) economic development (including jobs, housing)(2) Analyze Impacts on Placemaking Assets: Assess the long-run, causal impact of historical county seat elections on (a) economic development and population growth (b) all placemaking assets measured by Objective 1(3) Model Placemaking Dynamics: Develop a preliminary model summarizing the results to serve as the basis for future grant applications funding further data collection and analysisThe longer-term goal for this project is to enhance our theoretical and empirical understanding on both how long-term placemaking assets are created and how these assets themselves contribute to population growth and economic prosperity. The preliminary data and analysis funded by this seed grant will enable this project to become competitive for future funding by establishing that county seat elections had durable effects on placemaking assets, not just population itself. Armed with those specifics, an expanded project would complete the data collection process for all outcomes variables, empirically assess which assets fostered resilience against historical shocks, and expand the preliminary model to account for the interplay betweenthese two processes. This model encapsulating these results will have lessons for policy design by suggesting whether economic factors, public infrastructure, cultural amenities, or some combination should be targeted by place-based policies.
Project Methods
Efforts(1) Data collection -- digitization of historic maps and archival sources as described in the project(2) Analysis -- most outcomes will be analyzed via the close county seat election / regression discontinuity (RD) methodology described in the proposal(3) Modeling -- the project will develop a theoretical model outlining general lessons from the analysis. This will be primarily headed by collaborator Amrita Kulka (University of Warwick), as discussed in the proposal(4) Dissemination (academic) -- presentations in workshops, conferences, seminars(5) Dissemination (broad) -- via the University of Maryland and AREC communication offices, communication of the results and the policy lessons for a broader audienceEvaluation(1) completion and quality of data collection by grant deadline; availability of data after academic publication(2) completion and quality of analysis, as described in the research(3) completing and quality of the resulting model(4) number of presentations of related work and (in the long term) academic publications(5) engagement with broader efforts at publicization

Progress 06/01/23 to 05/31/24

Outputs
Target Audience:(1) social science researchers (2) policy analysts and policymakers Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Undergraduate RA: the opportunity to practice and learn Python, particularly geared toward webscraping and data generation Graduate RA: the opportunity to learn and practice GIS-related skills, particularly ArcGIS Pro in connection with the project How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?(1) social science researchers The results have been presented at the following venues during the reporting period NBER Summer Institute, Development of the American Economic [DAE] (July 10, 2023 @ Cambridge, MA) New York University, Economic History Seminar (October 26, 2023 @ New York, NY) Mid-Atlantic International Trade Workshop (April 29, 2023 @ Richmond, VA) Federal Reserve/Penn State, Real Estate Frictions Conference (November 3, 2023 @ Washington, DC) Social Science History Association Annual Conference 2023 (November 18, 2023 @ Washington, DC) University of Pittsburgh, Research Seminar (January 23, 2024 @ Pittsburgh, PA) In each case, the audience included all or many social science researchers who engaged with the results (2) policy analysts and policymakers Among the presentations listed above, the following included outreach to this second target audience NBER Summer Institute -- as the national organization for American economists, the NBER has many members who work in or otherwise contribute to policy work Mid-Atlantic International Trade Workshop 2023 -- this conference included many economists from the federal reserve system for whom policy work is a key component of their portfolio Federal Reserve/Penn State, Real Estate Frictions Conference -- similar to above, this conference was held at the federal reserve in Washington, DC and included many economists from the organization What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Work will continue and should conclude on data collection as described in the first checkbox Results from these data will be integrated into the project We will continue to revise and (if necessary) submit the paper to journals We will begin the planning stages for follow-up papers/projects

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? In all cases, the analytic results and data descriptions are available in the working paper:https://www.corybsmith.com/s/SmithKulka_2024_FrontierCountySeats.pdf Measurements: the paper and results now integrate data on (a) towns' historical newspapers, constructed from the Library of Congress directory. (b) work is ongoing by the undergraduate RA to collect/digitize further information on towns' status/prominence based on the frequency in which they appear in Google Books searches(c) the presence of post offices, roads, and railroads. Work is ongoing on collecting census map data for a wider range of public goods and population figures(d) a wide variety of measures of economic activity for both historical and modern periods including the occupational mix, income/salaries, and education. The graduate RA has ongoing work integrating land/property values from the CoreLogic dataset. Impacts: all of the measured data in #1 as well as population figures are analyzed with respect to obtaining a historical county seat (& with the associated in-migration). Many of these are measured on an annual or decadal basis, see paper Model/longer-term goals: based on discussions with researchers, we have connected the results to broader theories about what types of events/"shocks" lead to long-run placemaking and town formation. For example, we find that shocks earlier in history matter most with later shocks having minor or no importance. We have additionally developed and validated a machine learning model that predicts which types of communities were best-positioned to receive the county seat shock and associated in-migration, as measured by county-level outcomes in 2010. Detailed descriptions of both analyses are contained in the working paper.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2024 Citation: Smith, Cory and Kulka, Amrita "When is Long-run Agglomeration Possible? Evidence from County Seat Wars", Working Paper https://www.corybsmith.com/s/SmithKulka_2024_FrontierCountySeats.pdf