Non Technical Summary
The rural Midwest has experienced dramatic changes in health and social well-being over the past decade. There is an immediate need to understand the socioeconomic, health, and emotional impacts of COVID-19 in understudied rural communities, especially in hard-hit meatpacking towns dominated by persons of color (PoC). There is also a need to better understand how rural quality of life (QoL) is maintained in the face of sizable population loss; and how small towns can promote social integration and cohesion between long-time residents and new PoC. The long-term goal of this integrated research and extension project is to identify and disseminate effective place-based strategies to maintain QoL in small towns impacted by demographic changes and COVID. Our project addresses rural priorities of providing essential services like health and mental health, retaining businesses for a robust local economy, and addressing labor shortages and skill gaps. Our project gives voice to often marginalized PoC in meatpacking towns to better inform rural policy. Improving QoL, integration, and COVID recovery will help small towns thrive in the 21st century. The five main objectives of the project are to: (1) establish a stakeholder advisory panel and engage with study communities; (2) conduct a large-scale social survey across 125 small communities for the 2024 wave of the longitudinal Iowa Small Towns Project using mixed-mode techniques to better engage PoC; (3) understand the impact of demographic transitions and COVID on rural QoL, especially in diverse meatpacking towns; (4) identify effective local responses to improve rural QoL and COVID recovery using interviews; and (5) develop and disseminate extension curricula to improve rural resiliency and recovery.

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
803	6010	3080	40%
805	6050	3080	40%
608	6199	3010	20%

Knowledge Area
805 - Community Institutions, Health, and Social Services; 803 - Sociological and Technological Change Affecting Individuals, Families, and Communities; 608 - Community Resource Planning and Development;

Subject Of Investigation
6199 - Economy, general/other; 6010 - Individuals; 6050 - Communities, areas, and regions;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics; 3080 - Sociology;

Goals / Objectives
The long term goal of this integrated research and extension project is to identify and disseminate effective place-based strategies to maintain quality of life in small towns impacted by demographic changes and COVID-19 in the rural Midwest. We view demographic transition and COVID-19 as community shocks, the former being a longer term press event and the latter an unforeseen pulse event (Collins et al. 2011). We argue these shocks have the potential to negatively impact rural quality of life, but that negative effects can be mitigated by collective community action. Our specific rural quality of life outcomes are to maintain essential community services, improve health and mental health, promote economic security, and foster greater social capital and community cohesion. In particular, we seek to understand how these outcomes differ for rural residents of color in agricultural production and processing communities.The five main objectives of the project are to:Establish a stakeholder advisory panel and engage with study communities, especially in diverse meatpacking towns.Conduct a social survey for the 2024 wave of the longitudinal Iowa Small Towns Project using mixed-mode techniques to better engage rural people of color.Understand the impact of demographic transitions and COVID-19 on rural quality of life,especially in diverse meatpacking towns.Identify effective local responses to improve rural quality of life and COVID recovery.Develop and disseminate extension curricula to improve rural resiliency and recovery.

Project Methods
Objective 1 - Stakeholder advisory panel. In order to ensure our project has a high probability of success, we will establish an advisory panel comprised of key stakeholders who will guide development of our engagement strategies, data collection efforts, analysis methods, and publications and extension curricula. The advisory panel will consist of 6 to 8 individuals including local community leaders, state advocacy groups for persons of color and meatpacking workers, extension educators, and academic faculty in rural sociology and public health. The advisory panel will be instrumental in guiding development of the community survey and engagement strategies to increase response rates among marginalized groups (objective 2); and in the development of extension curricula and policy reports using ISTP data (objective 5). Efforts: Convene a face-to-face pre-work meeting in year 1 to review project.Hold virtual panel meetings at least twice a year throughout the project. Convene a face-to-face post-work meeting to develop plans for disseminating products. Evaluation: Panel members will rate project activities yearly on their usefulness to stakeholders, whether it addresses a community need, timeliness, and how PDs communicate with communities and stakeholders.Objectve 2 - 2024 wave of the ISTP. We will draw a random sample of housing units across 125 small towns in Iowa, of which 99 are part of the original Sigma Study with data back to 1994. Sigma towns were chosen by randomly selecting one town between 500 and 9,999 peoplein each of Iowa's 99 counties. We include 24 additional towns that serve as regional trade centers; and two replacement towns because of floods. Our general sample will randomly select the larger of 200 of 15% of occupied housing units.We draw a random persons of color oversample in 11 towns where people of color account for 20% or more of the population.Next, we will implement the survey using four mixed-mode contact treatments outlined by Dillman et al. (2014), that also includes a$2 incentive. To address likely low response in 6 meatpacking communities, we conduct non-probability purposive samples in each community, workingwith local partners. In total, N=33,486 households will be sampled. Lastly, we will process and publish the ISTP data, including post-stratification weights. Efforts:Develop and pre-test questionnaire.Random sample and survey in 125 towns.Purposive sample and survey of people of color in 6 meatpacking towns.Process and publish ISTP data. Evaluation: Response rates of 50% or more in each town and for the oversample. Maintain positive working relationships with local partners. Tracking downloads of town profiles and data files. Calls for presentations from towns and stakeholders.Objective 3 -Understand the impact of demographic transitions and COVID-19 on rural quality of life.Understand how demographic transitions impact social conditions that, in turn, impact community QoL. Our general model posits that demographic change will likely reduce social capital and QoL. However, we also posit that strong social capital in prior years will increase current social capital, which will trigger a community response of increased civic participation among residents and increased shared leadership among local leadersthat will increase QoL ratings by residents. These effects are hypothesized to offset any QoL declines driven by demographic changes. Understand how COVID-19 has impacted the health, mental health, and financial situations of rural residents. We hypothesize that greater levels of social capital will increase the effectiveness of local organizations in responding to the pandemic, thereby reducing COVID harm. We also posit that social capital will result in greater adherence to COVID mitigation strategies among residents that also reducesharm. We will estimate statistical models for all 125 towns, but will also conduct separate analyses for towns of certain size classes and ethno-racial compositions. We will identify towns that did better-than-predicted at maintaining QoL and minimizing COVID harm to inform policy and practice. Data will be primarily analyzed using multilevel structural equation models. Efforts: Perform statistical analyses of demographic and COVID impacts on rural quality of life. Conduct analysis looking a different strata, such as town size, persons of color, and disadvantaged status. Produce conference papers, journal articles, and applied extension bulletins. Evaluation: Presentations at national professional conferences. Submission and publication of articles in peer-reviewed journals. Publication on extension bulletins. Write various articles for The Conversation.Objective 4 - Identify effective local responses to improve rural quality of life and COVIDrecovery.We seek to understand the responses and strategies undertaken by towns to promote QoL and reduce COVID harm. We will accomplish this by conducting key informant interviews in carefully selected towns. Based on the regression results, we will identify towns that had better-than-predicted (more effective) and worse-than-predicted (less effective) QoL and COVID impact scores. Next, we will select 10 towns from both the more effective and less effective groups using propensity score matching techniques.In each of the 20 towns, we will conduct key informant interviews. To ensure prolonged engagement, two project staff will spend four days in each community to conduct a minimum of 15 interviews. To identify effective strategies,we will use a modified variant of Grounded Theory method from a Glaserian paradigm to identify emergent themes. Efforts: Conduct interviews in selected towns. Transcribe and code data. Conduct additional interviews. Transcribe and re-code. Identify emergent themes that are credible to stakeholders. Present and publish results. Evaluation: High cooperation rate with key informants. High evaluations of interview process by participants and stakeholders. Consensus on effective strategies by stakeholders and research team. Presentation and publication of results.Objective 5 -Develop and disseminate extension curricula.We will develop 3 extension educational programs: Resiliency in Shrinking Small Towns, Welcoming People of Color to Revitalize Small Towns, and Recovering from COVID in Small Towns. The extension program will include presentation slides, facilitator guide, notes on the research, and discussion questions. We will work closely with the advisory panel, community partners, and extension professionals at all stages of the curriculum development process.We will distribute extension curriculavia the project website, eXtension, RDCs, USDA multistate projects, and other relevant channels as identified by the stakeholders.