Source: ENGINEERS, U.S. ARMY CORPS OF submitted to
USING CITIES TO IDENTIFY FOREST INSECT HERBIVORE `SLEEPER` SPECIES AND THEIR FUTURE DISTRIBUTIONS
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1028212
Grant No.
2019-67012-37034
Cumulative Award Amt.
$95,658.88
Proposal No.
2021-12039
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2021
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2023
Grant Year
2022
Program Code
[A7201]- AFRI Post Doctoral Fellowships
Project Director
Just, M. G.
Recipient Organization
ENGINEERS, U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
3909 HALLS FERRY RD
VICKSBURG,MS 391806133
Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
The overall goal for this research is to determine if changes in gloomy scale (an urban insect pest of red maples and native forest herbivore) abundance due to urban warming reflect changes in new and existing natural ranges due to global warming. This research will document the validity of using cities to predict sleeper species (insect herbivores whose herbivory remains at background levels for long periods before proliferation) and the necessity of including urban climates in species distribution models (SDM). To this end, the PD will estimate the gloomy scale geographic range in natural and urban areas and generate SDMs to predict suitable pest habitat under current conditions and future warming (using previous PD research on gloomy scale thermal tolerance). This project will advance science through important agricultural research that aims to understand the more about native herbivores becoming pests. This information will improve our predictions of future forest pests, and, thus, future tree health and ecosystem services that will inform forest management, all of which will benefit the USDA AFRI Farm Bill Priority Area: Plant Health and Production and Plant Products.
Animal Health Component
80%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
10%
Applied
80%
Developmental
10%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
2113110113025%
1240530107025%
1230699107025%
2110699107025%
Knowledge Area
211 - Insects, Mites, and Other Arthropods Affecting Plants; 124 - Urban Forestry; 123 - Management and Sustainability of Forest Resources;

Subject Of Investigation
3110 - Insects; 0530 - Parks and urban green space; 0699 - Trees, forests, and forest products, general;

Field Of Science
1130 - Entomology and acarology; 1070 - Ecology;
Goals / Objectives
Project GoalSleeper species are native or naturalized insect herbivores that become damaging pests with warming. To predict which native insect tree herbivores are sleeper species, we need to know how warming affects their ecology. Cities are warmer than surrounding natural areas and could expose sleeper species by encouraging phenotypic traits that lead to proliferation.The primary goal of this research is to examine an insect species that is an invasive pest in urban areas and to use information about its traits and current distribution to generate predictions about future geographic distributions of sleeper species as pestsSpecific Objectives for this Proposal (Portions of the following objectives were completed during the fellowship).Objective 1: Estimate the geographic extent of M. tenebricosa in natural and urban areas.Objective 2: Characterize and compare M. tenebricosa traits between warmer and cooler areas.Objective 3: Use species distribution modeling to predict the suitable habitat for M. tenebricosa in natural and urban habitats under current conditions and future warming.
Project Methods
Objective 1: Estimate the geographic extent of M. tenebricosa in natural and urban areas.1a. Estimate Melanaspis tenebricosa geographic range1b. Environmental conditionsObjective 1 accomplishments during fellowshipRegarding Objective 1a, I made progress towards estimating the geographic distribution of M. tenebricosa by collecting and collating data on the presence and/or absence of M. tenebricosa on red maples at sites across the eastern U.S. This has included, samples collected: myself and by colleagues, from National Pest Diagnostic Network (NPDN) records, and from the records of a private tree care company. In total, this dataset contains records of M. tenebricosa from at least 27 states.Remaining Objective 1 tasks to be completed after successful PD transferThe historic range of M. tenebricosa covers much of the southeastern USA, from Maryland to Florida and as far west as Texas. For Objective 1a, I will perform another round of collating for M. tenebricosa occurrence records. I will again make inquiries with the NPDN and a private tree care company. I will also request photographs of red maple twigs from A Tree's Life participants. I will also look for records in the literature as well as Geographic Biodiversity Information Facility (https://GBIF.org). With this information, I will construct an updated geographic range map for M. tenebricosa which has not been updated for decades. This information is also necessary for Objective 3.For Objective 1b, I will characterize environmental conditions for the locations of M. tenebricosa occurrences. I will use GIS data products to characterize land-use, this includes the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) products for land cover, impervious surface, and canopy cover. Climate data will be acquired from NOAA weathers stations, RAWS weather stations, or PRISM modeled climate data depending on distance from and/or specificity of occurrence record. These datasets include factors (covariates) that may affect insect life histories. For scale occurrence datasets that include abundance, I will use regression analyses to evaluate scale abundance as a function of temperature, latitude, and land-use, and ANCOVA to compare locations. I will also evaluate trends in environmental conditions for occurrence-only data. These results will inform Objective 3.Objective 2: Characterize and compare M. tenebricosa phenotypes and phenotypic plasticity between warmer and cooler natural and urban areas.2a. Corroborate findings of M. tenebricosa phenotypic plasticity in cities for use in forests.2b. Determine the thermal tolerance of M. tenebricosa from different climates and land-uses.Objective 2 accomplishments during fellowshipI also made progress towards Objective 2, specifically Objective 2b. I conducted a series of thermal tolerance experiments to determine the both the cold and hot tolerances of M. tenebricosa. To that end, I estimated thermal tolerance at five hot and five cold temperatures that consisted of 16 experiments that assayed over 10,000 M. tenebricosa individuals from populations at the northern, mid, and southern range limits of M. tenebricosa. The assay temperatures were also representative of these geographies. We found some differences in tolerance between M. tenebricosa populations. For example, M. tenebricosa from the northern population tolerated an experimental temperature of -4.72C for twice as long as M. tenebricosa from the southern populations.Objective 3: Use species distribution modeling to predict the suitable habitat for M. tenebricosa in natural and urban habitats under current conditions and future warming.Objective 3 accomplishments during fellowshipRegarding Objective 3, I had begun to curate remotely-sensed data before I transitioned to my new position. During the fellowship, my time was primarily spent accomplishing tasks from Objective 1 and 2. Those results will be used to complete Objective 3.Remaining Objective 3 tasks to be completed after successful PD transferI will use the results generated from earlier Objectives, along with other data to parameterize species distribution models (SDM) with the MaxEnt computer program. The use of MaxEnt is well documented in the literature, including guides and reviews,which I will consult to perform the necessary analyses for this SDM.Specifically, I will use the M. tenebricosa presence data obtained in Obj. 1a, WorldClim2 climate data (monthly mean values from 1970-2000; 30 second resolution) and associated bioclimatic data, and NLCD 2016 land cover data (30 m2 resolution) for these SDMs. I will use SDMtoolbox Pro and ArcGIS Pro to preprocess input data for use in MaxEnt. This will include (1) checking for climatic and environmental variable collinearity, (2) filtering presence data for sampling bias (spatial autocorrelation), (3) preparing background data (e.g., spatial extent, number of background points, location of background points) and (4) resampling climatic and environmental data to same grain size.I will evaluate the performance of the MaxEnt models using threshold-independent (i.e., continuous probability) approaches, which often utilize the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) metric. The AUROC be calculated using training and testing data partitions, to that end I will use generate spatially independent partitions via k-fold cross-validation (spatial jackknifing) for use with MaxEnt.I will generate SDMs using distribution data that include 1) all M. tenebricosa records, 2) only city records, and 3) only 'natural' area records as appropriate. I will then compare these outputs with Cohen's kappa coefficient (K) to assess their agreement. I will also evaluate SDM performance with the newer SDM-Hyper Test which may perform better for presence only data. Outputs will be assessed for ecological plausibility and significance. The SDM efforts will produce defensible model outputs that will be useful for focusing management planning on habitats more likely to be invaded. Unless otherwise stated statistical analyses will be performed in R.

Progress 10/01/21 to 09/30/23

Outputs
Target Audience:During this final reporting period, the target audience reached by my efforts included academics (junior and senior), scientists, and practioners. The efforts that reached these groups include a published manuscript, a manuscript in internal review, and the mentoring of an entomolgical postdoctoral associate. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The PD mentored an entomological postdoctoral scholar during the reporting period. The PD helped with scientific and professional topics, including analyses and application material preparation. This postdoctoral scholar is now anextension faculty member. The PD served on a panel of non-university scientific professionals for a graduate course at NC State University. The students were able to ask questions about varied career paths and opportunities in USDA NIFA related fields. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The following manuscript was published during the reporting period: Wilson CJ, Backe KM, Just MG, Lahr EC, Nagle AM, Long LC, Dale AG, Frank SD (2023) Tree species richness around urban red maples reduces pest density but does not enhance biological control. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening 88:128093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2023.128093 An additional manuscript is undergoing internal reviewas preparationfor submission to a peer-reviewed journal. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Species that are dormant in their native habitats as insect herbivores can turn into harmful pests when exposed to warmer conditions. However, such sleeper species constitute only a small portion of the overall numbers of insect herbivores on plants, as the majority are not considered pests. To predict which native insect tree herbivores fall into the category of sleeper species, understanding their response to warming is crucial. Urban areas, being warmer than the surrounding natural environment, may trigger the activation of sleeper species by promoting specific characteristics (e.g., high reproductive output, larger size, thermal tolerance) that lead to their transformation into damage causing pests. This project aims to analyze these traits in an urban tree pest, the gloomy scale, and use the findings to anticipate traits that might increase the likelihood of current urban pests evolving into forest pests due to future warming. Lack of information on thermal tolerance or the actual geographical distribution hinders making reliable predictions about where the gloomy scale is most likely to become a pest with global climate change. These predictions will play a crucial role in guiding management decisions, contributing to the enhancement of tree health and cost minimization. Additionally, these efforts not only raise public awareness about agricultural systems but also pave the way for innovative approaches to address significant challenges related to plant health and protection. We have made progress on Objective 1 and 3, by collecting and collating data on the presence and/or absence of gloomy scales on red maples across the eastern US. To this end, we have collected samples ourselves, but also have enlisted help other university/extension personnel, citizen scientists, industry, and from the National Pest Diagnostic Network. We have collated records of gloomy scales from 27 states to date. We have also made progress on Objective 2 and have estimated the thermal tolerance of gloomy scale from three insect populations approximately located at the northern, mid, and southern boundaries of their known distribution. We estimated thermal tolerance at both hot (n=5) and cold (n=5) temperatures over a series of 16 experiments that, in total, assayed over 10,000 gloomy scales. We found that scales from the northern population tolerated an experimental temperature of -4.72?C for twice as long as scales from the southern populations. Regarding Objective 2, urban trees, particularly those in monoculture or isolated settings, often harbor more insect pests compared to trees in rural forests. The gloomy scale, a pest affecting urban red maples, thrives in areas dominated by impervious surfaces (warmer areas). Increasing tree diversity and canopy cover around urban red maples could potentially decrease gloomy scale abundance by supporting natural enemy communities. Our study in Raleigh, NC, USA, investigated the impact of surrounding tree species richness and tree canopy cover on gloomy scale abundance, natural enemy presence, and biological control in red maple trees. The findings indicate that higher tree species richness and greater canopy cover are linked to lower gloomy scale density. Red maples in diverse settings also hosted fewer scales per natural enemy. While parasitoids were less common in diverse settings, generalist predator abundance remained unaffected by tree diversity. Our in internal review manuscript addresses aspects of Objectives 2 and 3.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Wilson CJ, Backe KM, Just MG, Lahr EC, Nagle AM, Long LC, Dale AG, Frank SD (2023) Tree species richness around urban red maples reduces pest density but does not enhance biological control. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening 88:128093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2023.128093
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2024 Citation: Just, MG, Frank SD. Variation in condition and pest resistance between wildtype and cultivars of red maple. (internal review). Intended submission for Pest Management Science in 2024.


Progress 10/01/21 to 09/30/22

Outputs
Target Audience:During this reporting period, thetarget audience reached by my efforts included academics, scientists, and entomological professionals. The efforts that reached all of these groups included two invited presentations at the Entomolgical Society of America's annual conference in 2001. Additional efforts included the mentoring of threeentomology gradaute students. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Two female and one male graduatestudents were mentored by the PD, Dr. Just, on their research projects that were focused on plant insect pests. These students learned about the importance of agricultural pests and why insect pest thermal tolerance may be important for pest management. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The PD, Dr. Just, is an author on an in review manuscript. Wilson, CJ, Backe, KM, Just, MG, Lahr, EC, Nagle, AM, Long, LC, Dale, AG, and SD Frank.Tree species richness around urban red maples reduces pest abundance but does not enhance biological control. In review at Urban Ecosystems. The PD, Dr. Just, is an author on two invited oral presenations that were delivered during the reporting period. Frank, SD;Just, MJ; Dale, AG. The Larry Larson Symposium: Scientific Advances on Insect Species Adaptation to the Impact of Climate Change and Habitat Transformation. Urban heat islands activate sleeper species and predict future forest pests. Entomology 2021, Denver, CO Wilson, CJ, Backe, K, Just, MG, Lahr, E. Nagle, A., Long, L. Frank, SD.Insects in a Changing World: Urban Systems as a Model for Disturbance. Tree species richnessaround urban red maples reduces pest abundance but does not enhance biological control. Entomology 2021, Denver, CO What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The PD, Dr. Just, will complete the gloomy scale species distribution model (Objective 3) and write a report detailing the data, methods, analyses and results for publication/distribution.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Sleeper species are native insect herbivores that become damaging pests with warming. However, sleeper species are likely only a fraction of the total number of insect herbivores on our plants; most insect herbivores are not considered pests. To predict which native insect tree herbivores are sleeper species, we need to know how they are affected by warming. Cities are warmer than surrounding natural areas and could awaken sleeper species by encouraging those characteristics (e.g., high reproductive output, larger size, thermal tolerance) that lead to them becoming damaging pests. For this project, I will consider anurban tree pest, the gloomy scale, and use information about it toleranceto temperatures tomake predictions about what might make it likely for a current urban pestto transition to forest pestwith future warming. Without information on thermal tolerance or actual geographical distribution, we are unable to make robust predictions about where gloomy scale is most likely to become pestilent with global change. Robust predictions will help inform management decisions and, thus, help maximize tree health and minimize costs. These efforts not only provide opportunities to increase public awareness about an agricultural system, but also lead to the development of novel approaches to address important challenges concerning plant health and protection. We previoulsy made progress on Objective 1 by collecting and collating data on the presence and/or absence of gloomy scales on red maples across the eastern US. We collected samples ourselves, but also enlisted help from other university/extension personnel, industry, and from the National Pest Diagnostic Network. We have collated records of gloomy scales from 27 states to date. We completed Objective 2 and have estimated the thermal tolerance of gloomy scale from three insect populations approximately located at the northern, mid, and southern boundaries of their known distribution. We estimated thermal tolerance at both hot (n=5) and cold (n=5) temperatures over a series of 16 experiments that, in total, assayed over 10,000 gloomy scales. We found that scales from the northern population tolerated an experimental temperature of -4.72?C for twice as long as scales from the southern populations. These results were publishedin a peer-reviewed journal in 2020. The efforts from Objectives 1 and 2 will be used to develop the SDM model that is the main product from Objective 3. During this reporting period we have collected remotely sensed data for Objective 3. We have also developed a preliminary species distribution model for gloomy scale.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2021 Citation: Invited oral presentation: Frank, SD; Just, MJ; Dale, AG. The Larry Larson Symposium: Scientific Advances on Insect Species Adaptation to the Impact of Climate Change and Habitat Transformation. Urban heat islands activate sleeper species and predict future forest pests. Entomology 2021, Denver, CO.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2021 Citation: Invited oral presentation: Wilson, CJ, Backe, K, Just, MG, Lahr, E. Nagle, A., Long, L. Frank, SD. Insects in a Changing World: Urban Systems as a Model for Disturbance. Tree species richness around urban red maples reduces pest abundance but does not enhance biological control. Entomology 2021, Denver, CO