Source: UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING submitted to
USING THE PAST TO MANAGE THE FUTURE: LAGGED SPECIES EFFECTS ON FORAGE IN VARIABLE CLIMATES
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1026875
Grant No.
2021-67034-35231
Cumulative Award Amt.
$165,000.00
Proposal No.
2020-10806
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Sep 1, 2021
Project End Date
Aug 31, 2023
Grant Year
2021
Program Code
[A7201]- AFRI Post Doctoral Fellowships
Project Director
Werner, C.
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING
1000 E UNIVERSITY AVE DEPARTMENT 3434
LARAMIE,WY 82071-2000
Performing Department
Institute Ecology & Evolution
Non Technical Summary
Range agroecosystems can be particularly sensitive to rainfall variability, since unlike most other contemporary agriculture they cannot be economically irrigated in response to drought. Consequently, forage available for range animals can vary dramatically with rainfall year to year. As such, ranchers often need to base stocking rates on the lower end of forage productivity to avoid losses in less productive years, reducing their ability to capitalize on high-productivity years.My overarching goal is to expand ecological knowledge of temporal dynamics in rangelands to better predict and manage forage productivity. Recent work suggests that previous-year rainfall is as important as current-year rainfall for rangeland dynamics, and may promote coexistence of different forage species. To test the effects of lagged precipitation on California rangelands, I will conduct a field experiment with rainfall manipulation to parameterize modern coexistence theory models for communities of perennial and annual grasses under different patterns of dry and wet years. To extend these community models to consequent productivity and forage availability, I will test model predictions on long-term vegetation and productivity data from the site. This project aligns with the AFRI priority area of bioenergy, natural resources, and environment by increasing our understanding of rangeland dynamics and the role of plant diversity in the sustainable management of these systems. Additionally, the project directly supports the postdoctoral development of the PD, Chhaya Werner, in developing technical research and modeling skills and collaborating with rangeland managers and educating and mentoring students in rangeland science. I will communicate research findings through peer-reviewed papers, at conferences focused on the interactions between land managers and researchers such as the California Society for Ecological Restoration and the Natural Areas Association conference, and directly to local ranchers at the Sierra Foothill Research and Extension Center's field day for ranchers.
Animal Health Component
40%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
60%
Applied
40%
Developmental
0%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1210799107080%
1210420107020%
Goals / Objectives
A strong predictive model for the role of these lagged effects would allow ranchers to use the past to anticipate future production. This project has three research-focused goals: (1) investigate differences in lagged drought responses of annual versus perennial grasses (2) understand the role of lagged rainfall effects for maintaining annual-perennial coexistence in California rangelands, (3) investigate the consequences of lagged rainfall effects on stability of grassland productivity. Additionally, this project has a general training and development goal: (4) support the postdoctoral development of the PD, Chhaya Werner, in developing skills in technical research, modeling, collaborating with rangeland managers, and educating and mentoring students in rangeland science.Corresponding to these goals, this project has three research objectives:1. Use field manipulations to collect annual and perennial grass demographic responses to current and lagged drought.2. Build modern coexistence theory models to predict when climate variability results in species coexistence.3. Model forage productivity and stability in drought and post-drought conditions, and test these models on past records.Additionally, this project has two training and development objectives:1. Develop and lead two course modules, including at least one rangeland field-focused module, with feedback from participating students, mentors Hallett and Shoemaker, and University of Wyoming's Ellbogen Center for Teaching and Learning2. Network with the ranching community through SFREC's field day and small meetings such as the Natural Areas Association conference or other local meetings
Project Methods
Experimental Design.To test the interacting roles of precipitation and competition on perennial and annual grasses, I will establish a field experiment to measure productivity and demographic parameters ofS. pulchraandA. fatua. I will conduct this field experiment in an active rangeland at Sierra Foothill Research and Extension Center (SFREC) near Browns Valley, CA (39o 15' 04" N, 121o 18' 39" W, Elevation 202 m). This site experiences a typical California Mediterranean climate with hot, dry summers and cool, wet winters. Like much of California rangelands, it also experiences high interannual variation in precipitation (annual rainfall ranging from 220 mm to over 1200 mm, with an average of 720 mm; O.S.U. PRISM Climate Data). I will use the existing rainfall manipulation experiment at SFREC established through a University of California Agricultural and Natural Resource Infastructure grant, which consists of 16 precipitation reduction shelters measuring 50 ft x 16 ft with 16 paired controls. The seedbank in these rainfall manipulations was cleared in 2019 and 2020 by successive herbicide and mowing, which will allow me to directly manipulate densities of the target study species. I will monitor the resource dynamics under these treatments using soil moisture probes inserted vertically to measure average volumetric water content at 5-10 cm depth.Within the rainfall manipulation treatments, I will establish plots with combinations ofA. fatuaseeds (AF),S. pulchraseeds (SS), andS. pulchraplugs (SP) in Fall 2021 (Figure 3). To parametrize coexistence models, I will establish 0.5 m x 0.5 m plots each of these three (AF, SS, and SP) at observed ambient densities of 16 plugs/m2or 3200 seeds/m2, half-density of 8 plugs/m2or 1600 seeds/m2, and a no competition condition with no background planting. I will add in each of the target plants (AF, SS, and SP) at 2 plugs/m2or 320 seeds/m2in the varying density plots to measure population growth rates when rare (GRWR), a key parameter for species persistence. This experimental design will allow measurements of GRWR under high competition, low competition, and no competition.Field Measurements.I will collect key parameters forS. pulchraandA. fatuapopulations from Fall 2021 to Summer 2022. In December 2021 I will assessgerminationrates of AF and SS by subsampling seedling densities in a central 20 cm x 20 cm area in each plot. At peak biomass in April and May 2022 I will measuresurvivalby subsampling and counting stems in the same way as germination for AF and SS. For SP, all plugs in the full plot will be assessed for survival. I will additionally measure thegrowthof SP plugs at peak biomass by measuring their height, basal length, and basal width. I will measurefecundityin summer 2022 by counting awns for AF, which holds its awns and produces two seeds per awn. For SP I will measure awn lengths and collect awns from at least ten individuals outside of the plots to allometrically relate awn length and seed count.S. pulchraseedlings do not produce seeds in their first year.In addition to these measurements, at peak biomass in April and May 2023 I will clip the plots and sort, dry, and weigh theabove-ground biomassby species to measure total forage production in monoculture and combined species plots.Analysis.To test H1, that drought years have negative direct effects on both annual and perennial grasses but perennials are able to rebound more quickly, I will measure parameters from each species planted alone (without competition) under the different precipitation treatments. I will use ANOVA mixed models to verify the effects of treatments on resource conditions, germination rates, survival, and growth. I will use field data, combined with existing demographic data collected by Dr. Hallett, to parametrize population demography models. These models will simulate the responses of each species to drought events (H1a) and identify patterns of post-drought recovery (H1b).To test H2, that lower competition during drought years allowsS. pulchrato rebound more quickly after drought, I will additionally collect these demographic parameters from the species planted in combinations of different densities (Figure 3). In this way, I can directly measure the strength and consequence of competitive interactions under the different precipitation treatments. The different competition density treatments usingS. pulchraseeds (SS) or plugs (SP) and two densities ofA. fatua(AF) will provide information on the relative impacts of competition at different levels of species establishment and consequent competitive pressure.To test H3, that the lagged effects of drought promote long-term coexistence of rangeland annual and perennial grasses, I will test for coexistence using the mutual invasion criterion. Stable coexistence occurs if each species has a positive growth rate when rare (GRWR). With the data collected in the single species, low density, equal density, and high density comparisons, I will simulate the equilibrium abundance of each species (with no competitors). I will then test the growth rate of a single seed of the focal species in the equilibrium background of the other species, and calculate its GRWR. I will use discrete-time population growth equations to extend the coexistence method to account for perennial species. I will test for the stability of coexistence under variable environments using historic rainfall patterns, including long-term weather data from the SFREC field station site. I will also simulate different weather patterns with different drought frequencies or durations to see how this affects coexistence.To test H4, that mixtures of perennial and annual grasses promotes forage stability, I will simulate annual net productivity (ANPP) in varied climate conditions using the growth rate and biomass measured in the plots, for both monocultures and mixtures. I will compare these simulations to long-term observed ANPP in grasslands at the SFREC site. In addition to traditional measures of the mean ANPP and variation in ANPP through time, I will specifically test the time to recover after drought to at least the mean ANPP (lag time).Evaluation PlanBy Fall 2021, I will have established the experiment. By Summer 2022 all data for the coexistence project will have been collected, and I will present the preliminary analysis at ESA in August 2022. This presentation will allow me to solicit feedback on the ideas and success of the study from other academic researchers. I will also take advantage of the ESA meeting "Speed Networking with Editors-in-Chief" to briefly pitch my research to an editor-in-chief of an ESA journal (Ecology or Ecological Applications) and get their feedback on the work. I will get similar feedback from the ranching community by presenting at the SFREC field day workshops. By Winter 2023 I will submit the manuscript on the coexistence project to an academic journal, and will receive direct feedback from editors and peer reviewers. In Spring 2023 I will complete the data collection and analysis for the forage stability study, and present it for feedback from a mixed community of researchers and managers at the SERCAL conference.In the Summer and Fall of 2022 I will work with other members of Dr. Hallett's lab group to establish a student chapter for the Society of Ecological restoration. I will evaluate the success of my ongoing involvement with this group via 6-month surveys, which will also allow the group as a whole to improve. In the Fall and Winter of 2022 I will design and lead an course module in one of my mentors' classes. I will evaluate the success of this module through student course reviews, observations by ECTL staff. Finally, I will develop an Individual Development plan for my undergraduate assistant, and have weekly meetings with them to support their goals and progress.

Progress 09/01/21 to 08/31/23

Outputs
Target Audience: The main target audience for this reporting period was the academic science community, and communication to them included a presentation in an organized session at the Ecological Society of America's annual conference, and smaller presentations within the University of Wyoming and the University of Oregon. This target audience included both established academics and students, with discussions with the newly-established student chapter for the Society of Ecological Restoration at the University of Oregon. The planned outreach to the ranching community via Sierra Foothill Research and Extension Center's annual field day was delayed this past year due to COVID concerns, but is expected to happen next year after the pending award conversion to a standard grant. Changes/Problems: I am starting a new position as faculty at Southern Oregon University. Because of this change, I have requested and received initial approval to transfer the postdoctoral fellowship to a standard grant, so that I can complete the proposed work. I have completed 50% of her award period and work. Remaining work after the award transfer date will be collecting the final survival and fecundity measurements and collecting above-ground biomass in spring of 2023, and writing the analyses for the final papers. I have arranged teaching release with my department chair for this time period to accommodate this work, and will be rearranging the budget to pay field assistant during this period to help collect this data. With these adjustments, we anticipate no issues with completing all the planned data collection and analyses. As originally proposed, this work result in two peer-reviewed papers, which are currently proceeding on the planned schedule. To ensure completion of these papers, I will be requesting summer salary funding to support the final analyses and writing. Planned work following the transfer includes: Research objective 1: Collect a second year of data on species' germination, survival, and fecundity metrics. Complete and take down the field manipulation Research objective 2: Incorporate field data with newly developed models to assess when climate variabilityresults in species coexistence. Communicate results at Sierra Foothills Research and Extension Center field days and the Ecological Society of America annual conference, and submit a manuscript to a peer-reviewed journal. Research objective 3: Develop models of forage productivity and stabilityin drought and post-drought conditions. Training and development objective 1: Develop and run a field-focused course on rangeland ecology and management. This course will be offered through my new position at Southern Oregon University, with the Environmental Science, Policy, and Sustainability program. I will bring students to my field site where I will guide them in collecting data in the field, learning about rangeland history, science, and management, and meeting local ranchers. Training and development objective 2: Network with the ranching community through SFREC's field day and small meetings such as the Natural Areas Association conference or other local meetings. I will present at SFREC's field day and engage with the local ranching community there. I also plan to present at a small meeting such as the Natural Areas Association conference or the Society for Ecological Restoration California conference, possibly in conjunction with undergraduate mentee Natalie Kataoka. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Professional development focused on creating and refining job application materials and interview preparation for permanent jobs, including detailed feedback from project mentors Drs. Shoemaker and Hallett, other postdoctoral researchers in Shoemaker and Hallett's lab groups, and other professors through the EPSCOR-funded Modelscapes consortium at the University of Wyoming. This included a total of 12 applications to academic and non-academic jobs, for six of these I progressed beyondthe initial round to interview or additional material requests, and received and accepted a job offer for an Assistant Professor position in the department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Sustainability at Southern Oregon University. This position's emphasis on teaching and applied ecology research fits perfectly with my research interests and career goals. Another professional development goal for me was practice and development as an educator and mentor. I received training in teaching practices and pedagogy through University of Wyoming's Ellbogen Center for Teaching and Learning, including discussion groups, feedback on her teaching philosophy, and feedback on course design and assessment. In the past year, I also directly mentored three graduate students and two undergraduate students. These mentoring relationships led to one published paper led by graduate student Carmen Ebel, on which I am a co-author, one successful graduate thesis by Dr. Alejandro Brambila, with plans for additional mentoring leading to a peer-reviewed paper on which I will be a co-author, an in- prep paper on which graduate student Janette Davidson and I will both be coauthors, and an in-prep paper led by undergraduate student Natalie Kataoka which I am guiding as the senior author. I also developed networks of academic scientists and restoration practitioners, including through a synthesis group sToration, funded by the sDiv center in the German Center for Integrative Biodiversity (iDiv). I am a coauthor on two in-prep manuscripts being developed by this group. My participation in these groups connects me to a breadth of research study systems which overlap conceptually with my focal topic of drought effects, patterns of environmental variation, and species interactions in rangeland systems. They also serve to build an international network of collaborators for current and future projects. In addition to these one-on-one mentoring commitments, I have invested time in building networks to promote access to science and restoration careers. I assisted with developing a Society for Ecological Restoration student chapter at University of Oregon, including helping organize a seminar series in February 2022 on fire ecology that brought together scientists, private land managers, Federal agency managers, tribal leaders, and science communicators to share diverse perspectives on fire management and restoration. I am part of the advisory committee for the Women of Color in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Slack network, which has over 300 active members from academic and non-academic career tracks. Finally, I served on the University of Wyoming Botany department's committee for diversity, equity, and inclusion, and have helped build resources to promote fieldwork safety and access to research opportunities. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? I co-organized a session "Extending coexistence theories to predict species interactions in a changing world" at the Ecological Society of America's annual conference in August 2022, and gave a presentation in this organized session titled "Fluctuation- dependent coexistence mechanisms and the storage effect are equally strong drivers of coexistence for perennial species as for annuals" disseminating the new methods for modeling perennial and annual species interactions and sharing initial results from these models. I additional presented an invited seminar talk at the University of California Santa Barbara and spoke with lab groups, PIs, and graduate students about her overall body of work including this project and preliminary results. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Research objective 1: Use field manipulations to collect annual and perennial grass demographic responses to current and lagged drought. With advice and assistance from project mentors Hallett and Shoemaker, I established field manipulations and collected first year data on germination, survival, and fecundity. Drought treatment had an impact on soil moisture measures and fecundity metrics. Due to this being a relatively dry year, we are continuing the field experiment and data collection for a second year to get a wider range of environmental conditions and responses. Research objective 2: Build modern coexistence theory models to predict when climate variability results in species coexistence. I have expanded existing coexistence theory models to include multi-year dynamics of perennial grasses. This methods development took considerable work and included training in modeling from project mentor Shoemaker. I presented on this expanded method at the Ecological Society for America's annual conference and am leading an in-prep methods paper which has been invited to a special issue "Toward building better bridges between theory and data" in the American Naturalist journal. Training and development objective 1: Develop and lead two course modules, including at least one rangeland field-focused module. I developed a course module on species interactions and disturbance dynamics for mentor Lauren Shoemaker's course "Intro Research and Analysis." The module covered mathematical, statistical, and simulation models of species, communities, and ecosystems and especially focused on dynamics such as rangelands undergoing drought events and other disturbances such as forest fire or windthrow where different species respond to these disturbance dynamics in different ways. Building this course with aspects of flipped-coursedesign included creating discussion-focused lectures, assigning pre- class reading and responses, and two interactive coding modules. Working on this module also developed my skills in teaching online, designing classes with active learning components such as breakout rooms, code blocks that built step by step, discussion questions, and peer-to-peer learning. I additionally gave a guest lecture in another University of Wyoming course on experimental design in actively grazed ecosystems. I engaged in teachers training through University of Wyoming's Ellbogen Center for Teaching and Learning, including getting direct feedback on teaching philosophy and pedagogy, weekly reading discussions of teaching/pedagogy texts, and seminars on particularly topics in active learning and inclusivity in the classroom.

Publications


    Progress 09/01/21 to 10/11/22

    Outputs
    Target Audience: The main target audience for this reporting period was the academic science community, and communication to them included a presentation in an organized session at the Ecological Society of America's annual conference, and smaller presentations within the University of Wyoming and the University of Oregon. This target audience included both established academics and students, with discussions with the newly-established student chapter for the Society of Ecological Restoration at the University of Oregon. The planned outreach to the ranching community via Sierra Foothill Research and Extension Center's annual field day was delayed this past year due to COVID concerns, but is expected to happen next year after the pending award conversion to a standard grant. Changes/Problems: I am starting a new position as faculty at Southern Oregon University. Because of this change, I have requested and received initial approval to transfer the postdoctoral fellowship to a standard grant, so that I can complete the proposed work. I have completed 50% of her award period and work. Remaining work after the award transfer date will be collecting the final survival and fecundity measurements and collecting above-ground biomass in spring of 2023, and writing the analyses for the final papers. I have arranged teaching release with my department chair for this time period to accommodate this work, and will be rearranging the budget to pay field assistant during this period to help collect this data. With these adjustments, we anticipate no issues with completing all the planned data collection and analyses. As originally proposed, this work result in two peer-reviewed papers, which are currently proceeding on the planned schedule. To ensure completion of these papers, I will be requesting summer salary funding to support the final analyses and writing. Planned work following the transfer includes: Research objective 1: Collect a second year of data on species' germination, survival, and fecundity metrics. Complete and take down the field manipulation Research objective 2: Incorporate field data with newly developed models to assess when climate variabilityresults in species coexistence. Communicate results at Sierra Foothills Research and Extension Center field days and the Ecological Society of America annual conference, and submit a manuscript to a peer-reviewed journal. Research objective 3: Develop models of forage productivity and stabilityin drought and post-drought conditions. Training and development objective 1: Develop and run a field-focused course on rangeland ecology and management. This course will be offered through my new position at Southern Oregon University, with the Environmental Science, Policy, and Sustainability program. I will bring students to my field site where I will guide them in collecting data in the field, learning about rangeland history, science, and management, and meeting local ranchers. Training and development objective 2: Network with the ranching community through SFREC's field day and small meetings such as the Natural Areas Association conference or other local meetings. I will present at SFREC's field day and engage with the local ranching community there. I also plan to present at a small meeting such as the Natural Areas Association conference or the Society for Ecological Restoration California conference, possibly in conjunction with undergraduate mentee Natalie Kataoka. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Professional development focused on creating and refining job application materials and interview preparation for permanent jobs, including detailed feedback from project mentors Drs. Shoemaker and Hallett, other postdoctoral researchers in Shoemaker and Hallett's lab groups, and other professors through the EPSCOR-funded Modelscapes consortium at the University of Wyoming. This included a total of 12 applications to academic and non-academic jobs, for six of these I progressed beyondthe initial round to interview or additional material requests, and received and accepted a job offer for an Assistant Professor position in the department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Sustainability at Southern Oregon University. This position's emphasis on teaching and applied ecology research fits perfectly with my research interests and career goals. Another professional development goal for me was practice and development as an educator and mentor. I received training in teaching practices and pedagogy through University of Wyoming's Ellbogen Center for Teaching and Learning, including discussion groups, feedback on her teaching philosophy, and feedback on course design and assessment. In the past year, I also directly mentored three graduate students and two undergraduate students. These mentoring relationships led to one published paper led by graduate student Carmen Ebel, on which I am a co-author, one successful graduate thesis by Dr. Alejandro Brambila, with plans for additional mentoring leading to a peer-reviewed paper on which I will be a co-author, an in- prep paper on which graduate student Janette Davidson and I will both be coauthors, and an in-prep paper led by undergraduate student Natalie Kataoka which I am guiding as the senior author. I also developed networks of academic scientists and restoration practitioners, including through a synthesis group sToration, funded by the sDiv center in the German Center for Integrative Biodiversity (iDiv). I am a coauthor on two in-prep manuscripts being developed by this group. My participation in these groups connects me to a breadth of research study systems which overlap conceptually with my focal topic of drought effects, patterns of environmental variation, and species interactions in rangeland systems. They also serve to build an international network of collaborators for current and future projects. In addition to these one-on-one mentoring commitments, I have invested time in building networks to promote access to science and restoration careers. I assisted with developing a Society for Ecological Restoration student chapter at University of Oregon, including helping organize a seminar series in February 2022 on fire ecology that brought together scientists, private land managers, Federal agency managers, tribal leaders, and science communicators to share diverse perspectives on fire management and restoration. I am part of the advisory committee for the Women of Color in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Slack network, which has over 300 active members from academic and non-academic career tracks. Finally, I served on the University of Wyoming Botany department's committee for diversity, equity, and inclusion, and have helped build resources to promote fieldwork safety and access to research opportunities. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? I co-organized a session "Extending coexistence theories to predict species interactions in a changing world" at the Ecological Society of America's annual conference in August 2022, and gave a presentation in this organized session titled "Fluctuation- dependent coexistence mechanisms and the storage effect are equally strong drivers of coexistence for perennial species as for annuals" disseminating the new methods for modeling perennial and annual species interactions and sharing initial results from these models. I additional presented an invited seminar talk at the University of California Santa Barbara and spoke with lab groups, PIs, and graduate students about her overall body of work including this project and preliminary results. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

    Impacts
    What was accomplished under these goals? Research objective 1: Use field manipulations to collect annual and perennial grass demographic responses to current and lagged drought. With advice and assistance from project mentors Hallett and Shoemaker, I established field manipulations and collected first year data on germination, survival, and fecundity. Drought treatment had an impact on soil moisture measures and fecundity metrics. Due to this being a relatively dry year, we are continuing the field experiment and data collection for a second year to get a wider range of environmental conditions and responses. Research objective 2: Build modern coexistence theory models to predict when climate variability results in species coexistence. I have expanded existing coexistence theory models to include multi-year dynamics of perennial grasses. This methods development took considerable work and included training in modeling from project mentor Shoemaker. I presented on this expanded method at the Ecological Society for America's annual conference and am leading an in-prep methods paper which has been invited to a special issue "Toward building better bridges between theory and data" in the American Naturalist journal. Training and development objective 1: Develop and lead two course modules, including at least one rangeland field-focused module. I developed a course module on species interactions and disturbance dynamics for mentor Lauren Shoemaker's course "Intro Research and Analysis." The module covered mathematical, statistical, and simulation models of species, communities, and ecosystems and especially focused on dynamics such as rangelands undergoing drought events and other disturbances such as forest fire or windthrow where different species respond to these disturbance dynamics in different ways. Building this course with aspects of flipped-coursedesign included creating discussion-focused lectures, assigning pre- class reading and responses, and two interactive coding modules. Working on this module also developed my skills in teaching online, designing classes with active learning components such as breakout rooms, code blocks that built step by step, discussion questions, and peer-to-peer learning. I additionally gave a guest lecture in another University of Wyoming course on experimental design in actively grazed ecosystems. I engaged in teachers training through University of Wyoming's Ellbogen Center for Teaching and Learning, including getting direct feedback on teaching philosophy and pedagogy, weekly reading discussions of teaching/pedagogy texts, and seminars on particularly topics in active learning and inclusivity in the classroom.

    Publications


      Progress 09/01/21 to 08/31/22

      Outputs
      Target Audience:The main target audience for this reporting period was the academic science community, and communication to them included a presentation in an organized session at the Ecological Society of America's annual conference, and smaller presentations within the University of Wyoming and the University of Oregon. This target audience included both established academics and students, with discussions with the newly-established student chapter for the Society of Ecological Restoration at the University of Oregon.The planned outreach to the ranching community via Sierra Foothill Research and Extension Center's annual field day was delayed this past year due to COVID concerns, but is expected to happen next year. Changes/Problems:I am starting a new position as faculty at Southern Oregon University. Because of this change, I have requested and received initial approval to transfer the postdoctoral fellowship to a standard grant, so that Ican complete the proposed work. I have completed 50% of the award period and work.Remaining work after the award transfer date will be collecting the final survival and fecundity measurements and collecting above-ground biomass in spring of 2023, and writing the analyses for the final papers. I have arranged teaching release with my department chair for this time period to accommodate this work, and will be rearranging the budget to pay a field assistant during this period to help collect this data. With these adjustments, weanticipate no issues with completing all the planned data collection and analyses.As originally proposed, this work will result in two peer-reviewed papers, which are currently proceeding on the planned schedule. To ensure completion of these papers, I will be requesting summer salary funding to support the final analyses and writing. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Professional development focused on creating and refining job application materials and interview preparationfor permanent jobs, including detailed feedback from project mentors Drs. Shoemaker and Hallett, other postdoctoral researchers in Shoemaker and Hallett's lab groups, and other professors through the EPSCOR-funded Modelscapes consortium at the University of Wyoming. This included a total of 12applications to academic and non-academic jobs, for six of these I progressed beyondthe initial round to interview or additional material requests, and received and accepted a job offer for an Assistant Professor position in the department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Sustainability at Southern Oregon University. This position'semphasis on teaching and applied ecology research fits perfectly with my research interests and career goals. Another professional development goal for me was practice and development as an educator and mentor.I received training in teaching practices and pedagogy through University of Wyoming's Ellbogen Center for Teaching and Learning, including discussion groups, feedback on her teaching philosophy, and feedback on course design and assessment. In the past year, I also directly mentored three graduate students and two undergraduate students. These mentoring relationships led to one published paper led by graduate student Carmen Ebel, on which I am a co-author, one successful graduate thesis by Dr. Alejandro Brambila, with plans for additional mentoring leading to a peer-reviewed paper on which I will be a co-author, an in-prep paper on which graduate student Janette Davidson and I will both be coauthors, and an in-prep paper led by undergraduate student Natalie Kataoka which I amguidingas the senior author. I also developed networks of academic scientists and restoration practitioners, including through a synthesis group sToration, funded by the sDiv center in the German Center for Integrative Biodiversity (iDiv). I am a coauthor on two in-prep manuscripts being developed by this group.My participation in these groups connects me to a breadth of research study systems which overlap conceptually with my focal topic of drought effects, patterns of environmental variation, and species interactions in rangeland systems. They also serve to build an international network of collaborators for current and future projects.? In addition to these one-on-one mentoring commitments, I have invested time in building networks to promote access to science and restoration careers. I assisted with developing a Society for Ecological Restoration student chapter at University of Oregon, including helping organize a seminar series in February 2022 on fire ecology that brought together scientists, private land managers, Federal agency managers, tribal leaders, and science communicators to share diverse perspectives on fire management and restoration. I am part of the advisory committee for the Women of Color in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Slack network, which has over 300 active members from academic and non-academic career tracks. Finally, I served on the University of Wyoming Botany department's committee for diversity, equity, and inclusion, and have helped build resources to promote fieldwork safety and access to research opportunities. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?I co-organized a session "Extending coexistence theories to predict species interactions in a changing world" at the Ecological Society of America's annual conference in August 2022, and gave a presentation in this organized session titled "Fluctuation-dependent coexistence mechanisms and the storage effect are equally strong drivers of coexistence for perennial species as for annuals" disseminating the new methods for modeling perennial and annual species interactions and sharing initial results from these models. I additional presented an invited seminar talk at the University of California Santa Barbara and spoke with lab groups, PIs, and graduate students about her overall body of work including this project and preliminary results. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Planned work during the next reporting period includes: Research objective 1: Collect a second year of data on species' germination, survival, and fecundity metrics. Complete and take down the field manipulation Research objective 2: Incorporate field data with newly developed models to assesswhen climate variability results in species coexistence. Communicate results at Sierra Foothills Research and Extension Center field days and the Ecological Society of America annual conference, and submit a manuscript to a peer-reviewed journal. Research objective 3: Develop models of forage productivity and stabilityin drought and post-drought conditions. Training and development objective 1: Develop and run a field-focused course on rangeland ecology and management. This course will be offered through my new position at Southern Oregon University, with the Environmental Science, Policy, and Sustainability program. I will bring students to my field site where I will guide them incollecting data in the field, learning about rangeland history, science, and management, and meetinglocal ranchers. Training and development objective 2:Network with the ranching community through SFREC's field day and small meetings such as the Natural Areas Association conference or other local meetings. I will present at SFREC's field day and engage with the local ranching community there. I also planto present at a small meeting such as the Natural Areas Association conference or the Society for Ecological Restoration California conference, possibly in conjunction with undergraduate mentee Natalie Kataoka.

      Impacts
      What was accomplished under these goals? Research objective 1: Use field manipulations to collect annual and perennial grass demographic responses to current and lagged drought. With advice and assistance from project mentors Hallett and Shoemaker, I established field manipulations and collected first year data on germination, survival, and fecundity. Drought treatment had an impact on soil moisture measures and fecundity metrics.Due to this being a relatively dry year, we are continuing the field experiment and data collection for a second year to get a wider range of environmental conditions and responses. Research objective 2: Build modern coexistence theory models to predict when climate variability results in species coexistence. I have expanded existing coexistence theory models to include multi-year dynamics of perennial grasses. This methods development took considerable work and included training in modeling from project mentor Shoemaker. I presented on this expanded method at the Ecological Society for America's annual conference and amleadingan in-prep methods paper which has been invited to a special issue "Toward building better bridges between theory and data" in the American Naturalist journal. Training and development objective 1: Develop and lead two course modules, including at least one rangeland field-focused module. I developed a course module on species interactions and disturbance dynamics for mentor Lauren Shoemaker's course "Intro Research and Analysis." The module covered mathematical, statistical, and simulation models of species, communities, and ecosystems and especially focused on dynamics such as rangelands undergoing drought events and other disturbances such as forest fire or windthrow where different species respond to these disturbance dynamics in different ways. Building this course with aspects of flipped-course design included creating discussion-focused lectures, assigning pre-class reading and responses, and two interactive coding modules. Working on this module also developed my skills in teaching online, designing classes with active learning components such as breakout rooms, code blocks that built step by step, discussion questions, and peer-to-peer learning. I additionally gave a guest lecture in another University of Wyoming course on experimental design in actively grazed ecosystems. I engaged in teachers training through University of Wyoming's Ellbogen Center for Teaching and Learning, including gettingdirect feedback onteaching philosophy and pedagogy, weekly reading discussions of teaching/pedagogy texts, and seminars on particularly topics in active learning and inclusivity in the classroom.

      Publications