Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
Autonomous Vehicle Regulation:The time is ripe for introducing Autonomous Vehicles (AV) to the agricultural market. Michigan is the nation's leader in AV regulations, having passed 5 laws regulating AV operation in 2015 and 2016. On December 9, 2016 Governor Snyder signed into law PA 332 which allows for autonomous operation on any Michigan public road at any time and for any purpose without a person in the vehicle (requires specific safety equipment though). The only requirement is to notify MDOT, not to seek approval. This is in contrast to other states which allow for testing on limited roads or sectors, R&D, and other operations with a person in the vehicle. A current discussion is on-going between MI and CA to agree to a combined set of laws which would then be a templet for other states' or Federal laws. (Presentation by Dr. Kirk Steudle, Director of Michigan DOT at Autonomous Vehicle Conference at MTU, April 2017). Currently California requires a person in the vehicle even if it is operation autonomously.Therefore today, an agricultural AV can be legally operated on any MI road (and off road) at any time without a person in the vehicle (with required specific safety equipment).Compaction Yield Reduction:This compaction discussion practically addresses no-till agriculture practices. If deep tillage is performed after harvest, the soil compaction is a non-issue except for planting in wet soil. Compacted soils result in restricted root growth, poor root zone aeration, less oxygen in the root zone, and more losses of nitrogen from denitrifications (Hakansson and Reeder, 1994). The Ohio State USDA research program conducted by Randall Reeder since 2002 uses a single axle grain cart at half-full for a 10,000 pound load and full cart for a 20,000 pound load. Plots of corn planted in no-till, fall subsoil tillage, and a cover crop were subjected to the 10,000 pound and 20,000 pound grain cart compaction. Corn yields averaged from 2003-2009 showed a yield reduction of 15% on subsoiled plots and a 9% reduction on no-till plots with the 20,000 pound cart compaction load. The corn yield averages from 2010-2013 resulted in a 12.7% reduction on subsoiled plots and an 8.5% reduction on no-till. The 10,000 pound load compaction resulted in a negligible change in crop yield. The simple conclusion is the heavier cart load decreased the yield on both plots due to soil compaction, while the lighter load did not significantly affect the yield.For the top corn farms producing greater than 225 bu/acre, the primary factors they have control of and concentrate on are seed quality, soil condition, and compaction (Poet magazine Spring 2016). For compaction, great dedication is placed on no-till, controlled traffic lanes, and planting / harvest time compaction management.Both academic research and actual farming results demonstrate a reduction of deep soil compaction increases crop yield for both corn and soybeans. The real question for each individual farmer is the percent yield increase worth the extra time and effort. I believe the general answer to this question is a resounding YES as evidenced by early technology adoption of tractor automated steering and guidance control systems. Today's younger progressive farmers adopt technology quickly when the ROI numbers demonstrate the improvement and reduce traditional costs.Commercial FeasibilityAs all of agriculture is a science now, harvesting is also a science. The optimum revenue is to harvest when the corn is mature and at the lowest moisture content. If the moisture content increases, additional drying costs are incurred. Therefore harvest is primarily dictated by moisture content and the window before the next rain occurrence. Harvesting is 24 hours per day at this time, and manpower is limited during this peak time.The nationwide 2016 corn harvest was 15.2B bushels resulting in an average yield of 175.3 Bu/Acre. For Michigan, 2.31 M bushels were harvested at an average of 157 Bu/acre ranking Michigan 12th in the nation on corn production. Nationwide 24% of corn production land utilized no-till agriculture in 2010 per USDA report, but I cannot find more recent data. According to Michigan State University USDA report on 2016 corn production, custom corn combining was $35/acre and a grain cart was an additional $15/acre at an average of 6.87 acre/hr. Skilled labor was at $25/hr.For illustration, a 2000 acre MI farmer utilizing no-till practice and reduced compaction, a 10% increase in production of the 157 bu/ac rate is 31,400 additional bushels. At the September 13, 2017 market rate of $3.65/bu, this is an additional $114,610 of revenue. Using lower assumptions of a 7% increase and a rate of $2.50/bu results in additional revenue of $54,950. Choose any scenario one desires, but the additional revenue will pay for a monthly payment of $2121 for $200,000 loan at 5% for 10 years (typical term). The elimination of 291 hours of manpower at $25/hr is an additional $7275 of savings, especially at the peak time. Granted, some hours will be needed to move the AV grain cart from field to field. This is positive news as compared to simply outsourcing a traditional grain cart operation at $30,000/yr.Now add using the same cart for soybeans, wheat and other grains if the farmer has these crops. If harvesting both corn and beans, the AV Grain cart provides additional revenue and reduces labor costs, while the traditional tractor/grain cart produces zero additional revenue and maintains the same labor structure. One can debate the actual returns, but the trend is clear.We have talked to over 170 folks affiliated with corn production including small farmers, corporate farmers, academia, USDA, manufacturers, researchers and others, documenting each conversation per the NSF I-CORPS program. The operators are split between a dedicated AV grain cart and a modular AV chassis accepting multiple platforms including a grain cart, spraying tank, manure tank, or being a general purpose prime mover. Even small farmers have 6-8 tractors, and keep half of them solely dedicated to one implement. One major point is the only time all of the tractors are utilized simultaneously is at harvest time. Usage rates are lower during planting, and also in the summer months. Thus, if the farmer has both soybeans and corn to harvest, a dedicated AV cart makes sense for these two crops alone, especially as the size of the farm increases. Jerry Revich's (Goldman Sachs) article on the Future of Farming states self-propelled autonomous implements such as sprayers may reduce the fleet of tractors. John Deere, Case IH, AGCO, New Holland and other companies have demonstrated autonomous tractors, but are not in production now. It is time for a small business in Michigan to take the lead!
Animal Health Component
20%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
30%
Applied
20%
Developmental
50%
Goals / Objectives
The increase in productivity that the American agricultural industry has enjoyed over the last 75 years has been accompanied by an increase in equipment weight. Heavy tractors and other machinery operating on the field lead to soil damage due to compaction. While the effects of soil compaction on crop production are well understood, equipment architecture has not kept pace with this understanding. Modern tractor and grain cart combinations are in many ways scaled versions of legacy equipment even though they may weigh up to 600% more than their 1940's counterparts. GS Engineering is proposing the development of a self-propelled grain cart which will eliminate the need for a tractor to be on the field during harvest operations and will enable controlled traffic farming (CTF) techniques to be implemented. Based on preliminary research, productivity gains of up to 15% are achievable. During Phase 1, GS Engineering will leverage its extensive military and off-highway vehicle development expertise and relationships to produce a preliminary design and cost data for a self-propelled grain cart utilizing low-cost, commercial technology which is optimized to minimize soil compaction and allow CTF techniques. This design will then be combined with existing research data on CTF and soil compaction to produce a computational model which can be used to determine the economic feasibility of the proposed grain cart for a given operation. This in turn will be used to justify further development of the grain cart and identify which farming operations are best served by this new technology.
Project Methods
Phase I Work PlanThe following is a proposed work plan for Phase 1 research and development. Unless otherwise stated, the following tasks will be performed at GS Engineering's main office in Houghton, MI over an eight month period. This research and development will answer the question of whether or not it is feasible to design a self-propelled grain cart that can reduce soil compaction, thereby increasing crop production by as much as 15%.Define Key Performance Parameters for Self-Propelled Grain CartThe objective for the self-propelled grain cart is to improve productivity of the field by making it possible for the grain cart to receive grain transferred from a combine while travelling in the same tracks as the combine, thereby reducing soil compaction and associated soil damage. Working with experts in the field and leveraging GS Engineering's own expertise in vehicle mobility, GS Engineering will identify each of the Key Performance Parameters (KPPs) critical for the self-propelled grain cart to achieve this objective. GS Engineering team will leverage a select team of industry and academic professionals who will evaluate the proposed Key Performance Parameters (KPP's) of the proposed grain cart. This team may include designated USDA participants. Once the KPP's are defined and vetted to support integration with various harvester architectures, the KPP's will be weighted and prioritized in a weighted Pugh matrix to support design decisions as the project moves forward. At a minimum, these KPPs are expected to include the following: ground pressure, track width, grain capacity, time to unload, turning radius, and other KPPs to be defined.Identify, Define, and Document Candidate Technologies for Self-propelled Grain CartIn order to keep the cost of the self-propelled grain cart within the target range while still meeting established performance benchmarks, GS Engineering will incorporate commercially available components throughout as much of the design as possible. The self-propelled grain cart will be broken down into subsystems, and for each of these subsystems, GS Engineering will develop a specifications document which will be used to screen components such as axles, suspension units, power modules, etc. to identify commercially available components that meet the requirements set forth in the KPP definition. This phase will provide the data required to be able to develop a high performing, cost-effective self-propelled grain cart.Included in this task will be an investigation into existing autonomy packages suitable for the grain cart. In order to leverage the extensive research currently ongoing in this field, GS Engineering will work with Autonomous Tractor Corporation of St. Michael, MN to determine an appropriate sensor suite and control system for the self-propelled grain cart. This will allow the benefit of autonomy to grain cart operations to be evaluated through the use of the simulation tool, without duplicating work done in autonomy in a rapidly maturing industry.Down-select technologies and components and combine them into a preliminary vehicle conceptOnce a sufficiently complete cross-section of available components is gathered for each of the subsystems, GS Engineering will employ a Pugh Matrix to down-select the components best suited for the self-propelled grain cart. At this point, GS Engineering will assemble a CAD model of the vehicle using the selected components. This model will be completed to sufficient detail to ensure all of the selected components can be packaged within the allowed space, and to allow the KPPs previously identified to be estimated. Based on this, a preliminary data sheet can be produced, with Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW), grain capacity, top speed, gradeability, fuel consumption, as well as vehicle cost all defined. Special attention will be given to the vehicle characteristics that relate to the interaction with the soil, as well as those that are related to cost. The 3D CAD model produced will give an overview of the vehicle's appearance and view from the cab using GS Engineering's rendering tools. This information can be used to create what is effectively a vehicle data sheet. This sheet, in turn, can be used in communicating the concept to potential customers as well as in subsequent analysis of the of the vehicle concept to evaluate its viability.Development of Computational Tool to Determine payback period of machine based on productivity gains and efficiency improvementsRegardless of whether the self-propelled grain cart can be built, the justification for building it rests solely in its economic value to the farmer. In other words, the self-propelled grain cart needs to "earn its keep". Based on data gathered in during the I-Corps exercise, the payback period for a piece of equipment is the primary criteria a farmer will use to justify the investment. For most farmers, the payback period sought is 2-3 years. GS Engineering's preliminary analysis, based on published data on implementing CTF techniques and generalized assumptions about the baseline operation, shows the following benefits enabled by the use of the self-propelled grain cart:Reduce the cost per acre of harvesting crop by 10-15%Increase the crop yield per acre by 10-15%Increase the biomass harvest potential by 100%In this Phase I SBIR effort, GS Engineering will develop a simulation tool that can be used to evaluate the proposed grain cart features to quantify impact on soil quality, crop production, and total economic yield on a per acre basis. This tool will be used to design and validate the integration of specific vehicle features by developing computational models for vehicle components and control systems that would be utilized by the self-propelled grain cart to enable advanced controlled farming techniques. The goal of this tool will be to validate a futuristic vehicle design while significantly reducing the time and expense required to actually build, test, and refine a physical prototype.The development of this model will serve several purposes. First, by showing a more accurate prediction of the payback period for the investment, it will provide justification for further development of the self-propelled grain cart. Further, by using statistics for farms across the U.S., the potential market size and target markets for this piece of equipment can be estimated with a higher degree of confidence than would otherwise be possible. It can also be used to evaluate design options; for example the added cost for tracks might be justified in some applications, but not in others. Finally, it can serve as a sales and marketing tool during commercialization activities, providing a clear path from Phase 1, through Phase 2 and beyond.