Progress 08/01/06 to 07/31/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Activities: Activities supported by this project include work on biofuels, wildfire and prescribed fire, climate change and greenhouse gas emissions policy, water demand and water policy, and various types of natural resource related contracts. The project was instrumental in supporting the development of a set of recommendations for biofuel policies in Washington State, and associated projects, including ongoing projects that examine the economic efficacy of pyrolysis for producing biochar and bio-oil as carbon sequestration and renewable fuel products respectively, market analysis of alternative energy sources, anaerobic bio-digesters, and basic economic theory on climate policy. The project helped support additional work on national and international bio-fuels policy, resulting in several invited presentations in Europe and the US concerning the food-biofuel feedstock trade-off. The project has supported the development of several related models for wildfire severity and wildfire suppression effectiveness, and an empirical examination of prescribed fire law and its effectiveness. Supported research on natural resource contracts includes work on agricultural land lease contracts, the economic structure of auctions for usufructory rights to publicly held natural resources, an ongoing examination of lottery allocation of natural resource use rights. Finally, I have included my work on biofuel, wildfire, and agricultural contracts in class as examples of fundamental economic issues in natural resource management. Events: Numerous events have been supported by this project, including eight economics conference presentations, two invited talks at national renewable fuel conferences, three invited University presentations, and testimony to the Washington State Transportation, Energy, and Communications Committee of the Washington State House of Representatives for work relating to biofuels policy. PARTICIPANTS: A large range of collaborators contributed to much of the work supported by this project. These collaborators are in general listed as co-authors on publications listed in this termination report. TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audience varied depending on the project. Much of the work was for the development of the economics journal literature on the supported topics, but some of the biofuel work and wildfire work was targeted toward public agencies, the state legislature. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
The biofuel policy report received substantial popular press attention, including at least 10 newspaper articles and radio interviews, a substantive component of an article in Connections, a WSU Agricultural Research Center publication, one major article in WSU Magazine on the policy recommendations, and another interview with WSU magazine relating to food prices and biofuels and invited talks presented by the Co-PIs. Published work with Gebert and Calkin on wildfire suppression modeling is currently being used at the US Forest Service to assess suppression cost effectiveness. An article in the CAHNRS publication Connections features wildfire research developed with support of this project.

Publications

• Gregmar Galinato & Jonathan Yoder. 2010. An integrated tax-subsidy policy for carbon emission reduction. Resource and Energy Economics 32:310-326.
• Zheng, Qiujie and Jonathan Yoder. 2008. Market power over the inputs for blended motor fuels: Biodiesel versus renewable diesel in Washington State. Presented at the Western Agricultural Economics Association meetings, Big Sky, MT. June 25-27.
• Galinato, Gregmar and Jonathan Yoder. 2008. Revenue-neutral tax-subsidy policy for carbon emission reduction. Presented at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economics. Orlando Florida. July 27-29.
• Galinato, Gregmar and Jonathan Yoder. 2008. Revenue-neutral tax-subsidy policy for carbon emission reduction. Presented at the Western Agricultural Economics Association meetings, Big Sky, MT. June 25-27.
• Yoder, Jonathan. 2008. Policy Design for Biofuel Markets: Fueling Change and Changing fuels. Presented at the Western Forest Economists meeting. Welches, OR. May 6-8.
• Gebert, Krista, David Calkin, & Jonathan Yoder. 2007. Estimating suppression expenditures for individual large wildland fires. Western Journal of Applied Forestry 22(3):188-196.
• Espinola-Arredondo, Ana, Philip Wandschneider, & Jonathan Yoder. 2009. Biofuel policy for the pursuit of multiple goals: The case of Washington State." Western Economics Forum 8(1):1-9.
• Yoder, Jonathan K. 2008. Liability, regulation, and Endogenous Risk: Incidence and Severity of Escaped Prescribed Fires in the United States. Journal of Law and Economics 51(2):297-325.
• Hayley H. Chouinard & Jonathan K. Yoder. 2007. Repeated Auctions with the Right of First Refusal, The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics: Vol. 7 : Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 21.
• Yoder, Jonathan, Mariam Lankoande, & Hayley Chouinard. 2007. Incentives for wildfire risk management. In: The Forest Encyclopedia Network. Encyclopedia Identification [EID]: p804. April.
• Granatstein, D., C. E. Kruger, M. Garcia-Perez, J. Yoder, & S. Galinato. 2009. Biochar and Pyrolysis: Renewable Soil Carbon and Energy. Sustaining the Pacific Northwest: Food, Farm, & Natural Resource Systems 7(4):1-5. Newsletter of the Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources (CSANR) December.
• Granatstein, D., C. E. Kruger, H. Collins, S. Galinato, M. Garcia-Perez, and J. Yoder. 2009. Use of Biochar from the pyrolysis of waste organic material as a soil amendment. Final Project Report submitted to the Department of Ecology Beyond Waste Program. Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University.
• Yoder, Jonathan. 2009. [Book review] The Economics of Forest Disturbances: Wildfires, Storms, and Invasive Species, Thomas P. Holmes, Jeffrey P. Prestemon, and Karen L. Abt (Eds.), 2008. Forest Policy and Economics 11:301-302.
• Yoder, Jonathan K., Douglas Young, Kathleen Painter, Jie Chen, Joan Davenport, and Suzette Galinato. 2009. Potential for a Sugar Beet Ethanol Industry in Washington State. A report submitted to the Washington State Department of Agriculture. March. 43 pp.Bishop,
• Wandschneider, Philip R. 2008. Bioenergy: Big Myths, Complex Realities -- A Grain of Truth; Presentation, Facolta di Agraria, Univerista di Bologna, Italy. 21 May.
• Wandschneider, Philip R. 2008. An Overview of Biofuels Research. Invited Presentation, Institute of Environment and Policy, University of Bonn, Germany, 12 June.
• Wandschneider, Philip R. 2008. Bioenergy: Myths and Realities. Invited Presentation, Universta di Santiago di Compestela; Galicia, Spain, May .
• Wandschneider, Phil and Jonathan Yoder. 2007. Markets, Policy, Innovation; the Case of Bio-fuels. ENSCOG Seminar; WSU, Pullman WA. 17 October.
• Wandschneider, Philip R. 2006. Can Biofuels Replace Gas and Diesel, Poster. CFF Symposium, WSU field Days, June.
• Wandschneider, Phil and Andrew Earle. 2006. Global Warming Amelioration: The Prospects for Biofuels. Presentation at the Annual meeting of the Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference (PNREC); Portland, Oregon; May.
• Granatstein, David, Chad Kruger, Harold Collins, Manuel Garcia-Perez, Jonathan Yoder, and Suzette Galinato. 2010. Use of Biochar from the Pyrolysis of Waste Organic Material to Increase Soil Carbon Sequestration. PNW Climate Science Conference. Portland State University. June 15-16 [forthcoming].
• Yoder, Jonathan. 2008. Policy Design for Biofuel Markets: Fueling Change and Changing Fuels. Presented at A Taste of WSU at Benaroya Hall. August 28. Seattle, WA.
• Clark P., C. Richard Shumway, Philip R. Wandschneider. 2009. Heterogeneity in the Adoption of Anaerobic Digestion Technology: Integrating Economic and Behavioral Theories of Conservation Adoption. Forthcoming, Land Economics.
• Gebert, Krista, David Calkin, & Jonathan Yoder. 2007. Estimating suppression expenditures for individual large wildland fires. Research in Review Featured abstract, Journal of Forestry 105(4):165. June.
• Wandschneider, P., J. Yoder, A. Benson, and A. Ohler. 2006. Crop Production and Water Use Forecasts for the State of Washington Based on Econometric Estimation and Expert Opinion. A report to the Department of Ecology, Washington State. October.46 pp.
• Wandschneider, Philip. 2009. Economics 001 -- The Current Economy, Energy, and the Future. Presentation to the Pullman Artesian Society 25 January .
• Wandschneider, Philip R. 2009. Air Quality and Economics. Invited presentation. Conference on Air Quality and Agriculture -- Green Acres, Blue Skies. Davis CA. 2 June.
• Wandschneider, Philip. 2009. Economics and Stewardship, Invited presentation. Alberta Agricultural Economics Association, Visions 2009 Conference in Red Deer, Alberta. 30 April.
• Yoder, Jonathan. 2007. Policy Design for Biofuel Markets. School of Economic Sciences Economic Issues and Outlook Conference.
• Yoder, Jonathan. 2007. Market incentives for biofuels. Report to the Transportation, Energy, and Communications Committee of the Washington State House of Representatives. November.
• Jonathan Yoder and Phil Wandschneider. 2007. Policy Design for Biofuel Markets: An economic perspective. Presented at the Western Regional Biomass Feedstock Workshop, sponsored by the Sun Grant Western Regional Center and the U.S. Department of Energy. Portland, OR, August 27-29.
• Ohler, Adrienne, Hayley Chouinard, and Jonathan Yoder. 2007. Transferability vs. Non-transferability: The benefits of using a lottery vs. prices to distribute a public good. Presented at the Western Agricultural Economics Association Meetings, Portland, OR. August.
• Henry, Miguel and Jonathan Yoder. 2007 A Comparison of Parametric and Non-parametric Estimates of Willingness to Pay for Recreation Site Attributes in the Caribbean National Forest. Presented at the Western Agricultural Economics Association Meetings, Portland, OR. August. Abstract in Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, December 2007.
• Lankoande, Mariam Jonathan Yoder, & Philip Wandschneider. 2006. Incentives for Ex Ante wildfire risk mitigation in the wildland-urban interface: The relationship between contingent wildfire insurance and fuel management subsidies. Presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association Meetings, Long Beach, CA. August.

Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: One peer reviewed research paper published:
"Biofuel policy for the pursuit of multiple goals: The case of Washington State". Espinola-Arredondo A.F., P.Wandschneider, J.Yoder

Book review:
"Book Review: The Economics of Forest Disturbances". Yoder J.;

one accepted:
"An integrated tax-subsidy policy for carbon emission reduction". Galinato G., J.Yoder;

two grant-funded research reports delivered:
"Potential for a Sugar Beet Ethanol Industry in Washington State". Yoder J., D.L.Young, K.M.Painter, J.Chen, J.R.Davenport, S.Galinato

"Economic Feasibility of Biochar and Bio-oil Production in Washington State". Galinato S., J.Yoder, D.M.Granatstein, M.Garcia-Perez;

three in review at peer reviewed journals:
"Long Term Versus Temporary Certified Emission Reductions in Forest Carbon-Sequestration Programs". Galinato G., A.Olanie, S.Uchida, J.Yoder;

"Will Washington Provide Its Own Feedstocks for Biofuels". Galinato S., D.L.Young, C.S.Frear, J.Yoder;

"Economic Tradeoff between Biochar and Bio-oil Production via Pyrolysis". Yoder J., S.Galinato, D.M.Granatstein, M.Garcia-Perez PARTICIPANTS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
None Reported

Publications

• Espinola-Arredondo, A.F., P.Wandschneider, and J.Yoder. 2009. Biofuel policy for the pursuit of multiple goals: The case of Washington State. Western Economics Forum 8(1):1-9.

Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: In addition to the peer reviewed journal articles under "CRIS Publications", I was the project leader and primary Principal Investigator on a report to the Washington State Legislature entitled "Biofuel Economics and Policy For Washington State.", 180pp. plus appendices. December 2008. PARTICIPANTS: Co-authors for the biofuel report included myself and C.R. Shumway, P. Wandschneider, D.L. Young, H.H. Chouinard, A.F. Espinola-Arredondo, S. Galinato, C.S. Frear, D. Holland, E.L. Jessup, J.T. Lafrance, J.K. Lyons, M.P. McCullough, K.M. Painter, L. Stodick. TARGET AUDIENCES: Primary target audiences this year were the economic's profession and the Washington State Legislature. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: None. Continuing to pursue the current goals and objectives.

Impacts
Two of the peer-reviewed articles are upper mid-tier general economics journals. The Biofuel report has been widely publicized in newspapers and radio broadcasts, and will likely call for further testimony to the state legislature. Testimony was given in early 2008 regarding the interim report for this project.

Publications

• Bilgic, A., W.Florkowski, J.Yoder, and D.Schreiner. 2008. Estimating fishing and hunting leisure spending shares in the United States. Tourism Management. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V9R-4R1NN4 5-1&_user=7810834&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C00 0011439&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=7810834&md5=08a1979fe505f4f2 4c8196a3c0bcf217
• Yoder, J., I.Hossein, F.Epplin, and D.Doye. 2008. Contract Duration and the Division of Labor in Agricultural Land Leases. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. 65:714-733.
• Yoder, J. 2008. Liability, regulation and endogenous risk: Incidence and severity of escaped prescribed fires in the United States. Journal of Law and Economics. http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/wsupaper/yoder-5.htm

Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07

Outputs
I have one publication focusing on stochastic forecasting this year that falls under my Washington State Unviersity, Agricultural Research Center (ARC) project. In addition, I have four others in press, including two papers related to the one published this year entitled "Optimal Hedging with a Regime-Time-Varying Correlation GARCH Model" forthcoming in the Journal of Futures Markets, and "A Bivariate Markov Regime Switching GARCH Approach to Estimate Time Varying Minimum Variance Hedge Ratios" forthcoming in Applied Economics. I also have a paper focusing on the structure of agricultural contracts entitled "Contract Duration and the Division of Labor in Agricultural Land Leases" forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization and a paper entitled "Estimating suppression expenditures for individual large wildland fires" forthcoming in the Western Journal of Applied Forestry.

Impacts
The four papers on stochastic hedging extend the literature on estimation of optimal hedging strategies. The agricultural contract design paper is relevant for understanding contract design in a number of settings, and has relevance broadly for dealing with natural resource problems on private land. The wildfire suppression modeling paper has the potential for the most impact, and in fact is already being used by US Forest Service employees for understanding the determinants of costlier-than-expected wildland fires.

Publications

• Chouinard, H.H., and J.Yoder. 2007. Repeated Auctions with Right of First Refusal. Advances in Theoretical Economics. 7(1):article 21.
• Lee, H., and J.Yoder. 2007. A Bivariate Markov Regime Switching GARCH Approach to Estimate Time Varying Minimum Variance Hedge Ratios. Applied Economics. 39(10):1253-1265.
• Lee, H., and J.Yoder. 2007. Optimal Hedging with a Regime-Switching Time-Varying Correlation GARCH Model. The Journal of Futures Markets. 27(5):495-516.
• Gebert, K., D.Calkin, and J.Yoder. 2007. Estimating suppression expenditures for individual large wildland fires. Western Journal of Applied Forestry 22(3):188.

Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/06

Outputs
I have one publication focusing on stochastic forecasting this year that falls under my CRIS ARC project. In addition, I have four others in press, including two papers related to the one published this year entitled 'Optimal Hedging with a Regime-Time-Varying Correlation GARCH Model' forthcoming in the Journal of Futures Markets, and 'A Bivariate Markov Regime Switching GARCH Approach to Estimate Time Varying Minimum Variance Hedge Ratios' forthcoming in Applied Economics. I also have a paper focusing on the structure of agricultural contracts entitled 'Contract Duration and the Division of Labor in Agricultural Land Leases' forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization and a paper entitled 'Estimating suppression expenditures for individual large wildland fires' forthcoming in the Western Journal of Applied Forestry.

Impacts
The four papers on stochastic hedging extend the literature on estimation of optimal hedging strategies. The agricultural contract design paper is relevant for understanding contract design in a number of settings, and has relevance broadly for dealing with natural resource problems on private land. The wildfire suppression modeling paper has the potential for the most impact, and in fact is already being used by US Forest Service employees for understanding the determinants of costlier-than-expected wildland fires.

Publications

• Lee, H., J. Yoder, R.C. Mittelhammer, and J.J. McCluskey. 2006. A Random Coefficient Autoregressive Markov Regime Switching Model for Dynamic Futures Hedging. The Journal of Futures Markets. 26(2):103-129.

Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/05

Outputs
The prescribed fire law relates to institutional design for managing the risks associated with prescribed fire as a land management tool. This paper was solicited and peer reviewed. The paper on lumber markets, published in the leading agricultural economics field journal, develops a new method for modeling the way information enters and is reflected in markets for natural resource commodities such as lumber.

Impacts
The prescribed fire paper was a requested section of a fire science encyclopedia designed to be accessible to land managers, fire science researchers, legal scholars and lawyers, as well as economists. The above two publications, along with two past publications and working papers on the RePEc database have received approximately 170 full-text downloads in the last 12 months.

Publications

• Tilley, Marcia, Jonathan Yoder and Sridar Komar. 2005. Summary of State Prescribed Burn Statutes. Southern Fire Science Encyclopedia, http://www.forestencyclopedia.net, EID 8310.
• Rucker, Randal, Walter Thurman, and Jonathan Yoder. 2005. Estimating the Speed of Market Reaction to News: Market Events and Lumber Futures Prices. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87(2):482-500.

Progress 01/01/04 to 12/31/04

Outputs
Peer-reviewed journal articles: Dr. Yoder has published four peer-reviewed articles in 2004. Three of these focus on the economics of prescribed fire and the economics of wildfire risk mitigation. The fourth article is on whitewater rafting permit systems and post-lottery markets for permits. Articles in press at peer-reviewed journals: Dr. Yoder has one paper in press at the American Journal of Agricultural Economics on estimating the process by which news events affect futures market rates of return. Articles under review or in revision for resubmission at peer-reviewed journals: Dr. Yoder has one sole-authored article under revision for resubmission to the Journal of Law and Economics, one journal article under review at the Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization one paper under revision for resubmission at the Journal of futures Markets one paper under review at Natural Resources Journal and one invited paper under review for the Southern Fire Sciences Encyclopedia. Other Publications: Dr. Yoder contributed two papers to the proceedings of the second international symposium on the economics of wildfire held in Cordoba, Spain. Presentations: Dr. Yoder contributed to two presentations at the Western Agricultural Economics Association meetings, one at the American Agricultural Economics Association meetings, two at the second international symposium on the economics of wildfire held in Cordoba, Spain, two at the meetings of the Australian Agricultural Economics Society meetings in Melbourne, AU, and presented invited talks at the University of Idaho School of Natural Resources and the School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University. Grants: Two grants are underway in January 2004 (totaling a bit less than $100,000, and received two small grants this year totaling a bit less than $30,000.

Impacts
The greatest impact of the work being done for this ARC project relates to Dr. Yoders wildfire research agenda. He has received numerous requests for reprints of his work on prescribed fire law from forest managers and fire ecologists, in particular. As a result of that work, he was invited and funded to give two presentations on the topic at a multidisciplinary conference with the sole goal of facilitating insurance markets for the application of prescribed fire, the lack of which is seen by many as a serious impediment to appropriate vegetation management, and was asked to give a seminar to a multidisciplinary class on ecosystem management for the Natural Resource Science in the College of Agriculture, Human, and Natural Resource Sciences at Washington State University.

Publications

• Yoder, Jonathan K, Dave Engle and Sam Fuhlendorf. 2004. Liability, Incentives, and Prescribed Fire for Ecosystem Management. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2(7):361-366.
• Yoder, Jonathan K. 2004. Playing with Fire: Endogenous Risk in Resource Management. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86(4):933-948.
• Yoder, Jonathan K. and Keith Blatner. 2004. Incentives and Timing of Prescribed Fire for Wildfire Risk Management. Journal of Forestry, 102(6):38-41.
• Chouinard, Hayley and Jonathan Yoder. 2004. The Plight of an Unlucky River Rat: Political Economy and Idahos Four Rivers Lottery for Whitewater Rafting. Western Economics Forum, Spring, pp. 17-24.

Progress 01/01/03 to 12/31/03

Outputs
Dr. Yoder's research objectives are to contribute to the scientific and empirical economic literature in the fields of contract theory and econometrics applied to natural resource and environmental policy and law. Within this scope, his research focuses primarily at the intersection of rural land use environmental issues, and is of relevance to both the Pacific Northwest and the United States as a whole. Dr. Yoder has been making steady progress on each of the objectives outlined in my ARC proposal. In particular, this year he has published two articles relating to law and economics of prescribed fire use, and has one article forthcoming on the economics wildfire risk mitigation. He also has one paper under review in an ecology journal focusing on law and economics for ecosystem management with a focus on wildfire. He has participated in a national conference to facilitate the development of prescribed fire insurance markets and has a research paper soon to be submitted to a refereed journal on the topic. He is scheduled to present two invited papers at an international symposium on Wildfire Economics in April; both papers will be published in proceedings. One of the papers represents progress toward completing grant responsibilities on the effects of law on endogenous risk of prescribed fire use in the United States, the other is work being completed with in conjunction with a Ph.D. student in AREC. Dr. yoder is making steady progress on a number of other projects within the scope of his ARC project. I have manuscripts nearing completion on the division of labor in agricultural land leases, the economic value of information nutrient runoff management under a Total Maximum Daily Load regulatory framework, and a methodological paper focusing on estimation of the value of fishing using off-site survey data. He also has a forthcoming article that develops a new method for estimation of futures market reactions to information events. A number of other projects that fall within the scope of Dr. Yoder's ARC project, a number of them with graduate students, are in various stages of completion.

Impacts
The greatest impact of the work being done for this ARC project relates to Dr. Yoders wildfire research agenda. He has received numerous requests for reprints of his work on prescribed fire law from forest managers and fire ecologists, in particular. As a result of that work, he was invited and funded to give two presentations on the topic at a multidisciplinary conference with the sole goal of facilitating insurance markets for the application of prescribed fire, the lack of which is seen by many as a serious impediment to appropriate vegetation management, and was asked to give a seminar to a multidisciplinary class on ecosystem management for the Natural Resource Science in the College of Agriculture, Human, and Natural Resource Sciences at Washington State University.

Publications

• Yoder, Jonathan K, Dave Engle, Marcia Tilley, and Sam Fuhlendorf. 2003. The Economic Logic of Prescribed Burning Law and Regulation. Journal of Range Management 56(July): 306-313.
• Yoder, Jonathan K, Marcia Tilley, Dave Engle, and Sam Fuhlendorf. 2003. Prescribed Fire Economics and Law in the United States. Review of Agricultural Economics 25(1): 218-233.