Progress 08/15/15 to 08/14/18
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience for this project is, first,the academic community. We started this project with the hope that other faculty members will use the results of our workfor their own study. The 2016 publication supported by this grant has already been cited threetimes in the literature, andthe 2017 publication has been cited once (ISI web of knowledge data).Beyond this community, we believe that this work is of interest to ranchers and farmers as well as to policy makers and the public at large. Dr. Frisvold, one of the lead PI's on this grant, has delivered several lectures for this audience. Moreover, we have already published four newsletters to inform the general public of our goals and contributions. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?All the Research Assistants of Dr. Dall'erba on this projecthave taken his course ACE 592 Spatial Econometrics and are now capable of using these techniques for other applications. Drs. Dall'erba and Dominguez have continued tohold weekly one-on-one meetings with their current and past Research Assistants onthis project. This past year Ibrahima Sall successfully passed his oral examination on his proposed Doctoral Dissertation in Arid Lands Resource Sciences at the University of Arizona with a PhD Minor in Remote Sensing.He is scheduled to complete his dissertation"Essays on Agricultural Decision-Making in Response to Risk, Economic Incentives and Climate and Weather Conditions" in December, 2018.This work represents extensions of studies presented at professional meetings (documented in earlier reports). Zhangliang Chen will take his preliminary exam in the Departmentof Agricultural and Consumer Economics at UIUCmid September. His dissertation is composed of the contributions that were made tothis project. His defense is expected to take place in early summer 2019. Dr. Frisvold from UA is part of the defense committee. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?In addition to disseminating our results through the usual academic channels (seminars, conference presentations as well as paper submissions), we have kept sharing the results of our work with a larger community through newsletters. These Extension meetingsappear in the "Products" section. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Research accomplished this year allowed us to complete all the major goals of the project. With regards to goal 1 (100% completed), we completed an article using interstate trade as a weighting schemeand we presented it in several venues. Compared to traditional spatial econometric settings where interregional dependence is based on geographical proximity only, we use a trade-based matrix to understand how profit in agriculture in one state depend on a set of local weather conditions, including drought, and on exports. Since the latter is a function of weather conditions, including drought, in the origin and the destination state, our combined models allow us to provide a general equilibrium measurement of the actual marginal effect of drought on profit. This approach complements the 2016 paper published thanks to NIFA's support where dependence is only distance-based. When it comes to goal 2 (100% completed), our manuscriptintroduces the multilevel modelling method in the Ricardian framework in order to account for the spatial heterogeneity of the farmland responses to the changes in climate variables across the nine climate regions in continental U.S. Our preferred random coefficient estimates suggest that the climate sensitivities of farmland value are uneven in a systematic way across the different climate regions. The conventional method, on the other hand, fails to identify these spatial heterogeneities. The overall estimates generated by those conventional methods may overestimate the climatic impacts for some regions, meanwhile, underestimate for the others. We believe that our results are relevant to regional planners and local communities who want to understand the climate sensitivity of agricultural sector for their own local region as our methodgenerates region-specificestimates ofclimate sensitivities. Goal 3 is now 100% completed as we included the feedback received from the editor and referees of the American Journal of Agricultural Economics with regards to our measurements of the sensitivity of farmers to new climate conditions with and without crop insurance programs. As expected, our results indicate that crop insurance programs reducethe magnitude of themarginal effects of local climate conditions on farmlandvalue in the net recipient counties. Goal 4 was completedearly in the grant period since all the socio-economic and climate data needed for the analysis were collected in year 1.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Chen Z. and Dallerba S. 2018. Drought, Interstate Trade and Agricultural Profit: Theory and Evidence. Annual Meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Washington DC, August 2018.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Chen Z. and Dallerba S. 2018. Drought, Interstate Trade and Agricultural Profit: Theory and Evidence. 57th Annual Meeting of the Western Regional Science Association, Pasadena, February 2018.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Chen Z. and Dallerba S. 2018. Drought, Interstate Trade and Agricultural Profit: Theory and Evidence. Business School, Zhengzhou University (China), June 2018.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Chen Z. and Dallerba S. 2018. Drought, Interstate Trade and Agricultural Profit: Theory and Evidence. Dept. of Urban and Regional Planning, UIUC, April 2018.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
George Frisvold (Panel Discussant) 2018. Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity. Disruptive Innovations, Value Chains, and Rural Development Conference and NC-1034 Pre-Conference, World Bank, Washington, DC, June 12-15.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
George Frisvold 2018. Climate Conversations Extension Workshops in Miami, AZ on April 10, 2018 and Payson, AZ on April 11, 2018.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
George Frisvold 2018. Arizona Cooperative Extension WaterWise Workshops on the Climate, Water, Energy, Agriculture Nexus in Sierra Vista, AZ on May 5, 2018 and Tempe, AZ on July 9, 2018.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
George Frisvold 2018. Keynote Speech for the Arizona Agribusiness and Water Council Annual Conference in Tempe, AZ on May 18, 2018.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Yang, Z., F. Dominguez, X. Zeng, H. Hu, H. Gupta and Ben Yang. 2017. Impact of Irrigation over the California Central Valley on Regional Climate. J. Hydrometeor, 18, 1341-1357, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-16-0158.1.
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Progress 08/15/16 to 08/14/17
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience for this project is primarily the academic community. Considering that several contributions to the literature will be completed by the end of the project, we expect that other faculty members will use them for their own study. The section on Dissemination of Resultsreports the numerous steps such as publications and presentations we have taken in this direction this year. Beyond this community, we believe that this work is of interest to ranchers and farmers as well as policy makers and the public at large. We have already published four newsletters to inform the general public of our goals and contributions. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?All fourResearch Assistants of Dr. Dall'erba have taken his course ACE 592 Spatial econometrics. Lat year, all the Research Assistants of Dr. Dominguez took her course ATMS 507 Climate Dynamics Drs. Dall'erba and Dominguez hold weekly one-on-one meetings with the Research Assistants of this project. Presentations/seminars (including those delivered by the Research Assistants) can be found in the Products section of this report. In addition, one of the Research Assistants, Jinwon Bae, had one chapter of her PhD thesis based on the research supported by NIFA. She successfully defended her PhD this May. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?In addition to disseminating our results through the usual academic channels (seminars, conference presentations as well as paper submissions), we have kept sharing the results of our work with a larger community through newsletters. The details are provided below: Presentations: Frisvold, George. 2016. Cotton Crop Abandonment: The Roles of Prices, Weather, Irrigation and Insurance.Proceedings of the Beltwide Cotton Conferences.Memphis, TN: National Cotton Council. Sall, Ibrahima, George Frisvold, and Russell Tronstad. 2017. Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Cotton Acreage Abandonment Case Study of Selected Counties in the U.S. Cotton Belt. Selected paper presented at the 2017 Western Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meetings. Lake Tahoe, Nevada. July 9-11, 2017. Chang Cai and Sandy Dall'erba. 2017. The Economic Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture: A Multilevel Analysis. Paper presented at the 2017 meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association. Zhangliang Chen, Sandy Dall'erba and Madhu Khanna. 2017.The Ricardian Model of Climate Change Impact with Interregional Trade Flows : Evidence fromU.S. Agriculture. Paper presented at the 2017 meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association. Yang, Z., F. Dominguez, X. Zeng, H. Hu, H. Gupta, and B. Yang. 2016. Impact of Irrigation over the California Central Valley on Regional Climate. 2016 AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco, Calif.12-16 Dec. Yang, Z. 2017.Large and Local Scale Features Associated with Heat Waves in the United States and the Performance of the NARCCAP Ensemble in Simulating Heat Wave. 2017 Hydro-Climatology Group Meeting, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL.29 Mar. Paper Submission: Chen Z., and Dall'erba S. 2016. Do Crop Insurance Programs Preclude Their Recipients From Adapting to New Climate Conditions? Submitted to the American Journal of Agricultural Economics. Yang, Z., F. Dominguez, and X. Zeng, 2017. Large and Local Scale Features Associated with Heat Waves in the United States and the Performance of the NARCCAP Ensemble in Simulating Heat Wave. Climate Dynamics (In Revision). Publications: Yang, Z., F. Dominguez, X. Zeng, H. Hu, H. Gupta and Ben Yang, 2017. Impact of Irrigation over the California Central Valley on Regional Climate.J. Hydrometeor,18, 1341-1357, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-16-0158.1. Newsletters: Chen Z. and Dall'erba S. 2016. Why will the coming years see more interest for interstate food supply linkages? Policy Matters Newsletter, Dept. of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, UIUC. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Research accomplished this year has highlighted that crop insurance programs reduce the incentive to adapt to climate change. Furthermore, we have investigated the role of interregional dependence in a Ricardian framework further. While the traditional spatial econometric literature bases spillovers on geographical proximity, we claim that upstream-downstream surface water flows used for irrigation are a more important form of dependence. Another type of spillover currently under investigation and presented at the recent AAEA meeting is the interstate trade of grains, fruits and vegetables. These spillovers demonstrate that the actual marginal effect of a covariate, say temperature, on the dependent variable is a function is both local and interregional effects. Last but not least, we are currently working onan article that seeks todemonstrate the hierarchical nature of the weather variables we commonly rely on. Based on recent econometric techniques for hierarchical modeling, we demonstrate that the largest part of the variance in the weather conditions across U.S. counties comes from the variance across the nine climate regions defined by NOAA. Furthermore, this approach allows us to measure marginal effects which are specific to each climate region. Compared to the usual, nation-wide, measurements that the current literature offers, our results show that each climate region should expect less damages from future climate conditions. As such, these location specific marginal effects capture the local adaptation capacity better than nation-wide measurement. Information on specific goals and % of overall completion: Goal 1 (70% completed): Last year we published one article where interregional dependence is based on geographical proximity in Spatial Economic Analysis. This year, we have started working on two other forms of spatial dependence, namely upstream-downstream flows of surface water and interstate trade of grains, fruits, and vegetables. Goal 2 (60% completed): An article based on the hierarchical structure of the data (where Level 1 is a climate zone and Level 2 is a county) is currently in progress. It has been presented in department seminars and at the AAEA meeting. Its preliminary results are reported above. Additional future climate scenarios need to be tested. Goal 3 (70% completed): We submitted to the American Journal of Agricultural Economics an article demonstrating how support from crop insurance programs reduces the incentive that farmers have to adapt to new climate conditions. This article is currently under review. It turns out that the econometric analysis of the impact of other types of farms programs is more complicated than originally anticipated for the reason that no instrumental variables have been offered in the literature to account for their endogeneity. Goal 4 (100% completed): All the socio-economic and climate data needed for the analysis have been collected.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Chen Z. and Dallerba S. 2017. Do Crop Insurance Programs Preclude Their Recipients from Adapting to new Climate Conditions? Submitted to the American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Yang, Z., Dominguez, F. and Zeng, X. 2017. Large and Local Scale Features Associated with Heat Waves in the United States and the Performance of the NARCCAP Ensemble in Simulating Heat Wave. Climate Dynamics (Under Revision).
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Bae, J., He, X. and Dallerba, S. 2017. The Role of the Spatial Externalities of Irrigation on the Ricardian Model of Climate Change: Application to the South-Western U.S. Counties. Chapter 3 of Jinwon Baes PhD dissertation, University of Arizona.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Frisvold, G. 2016. Cotton Crop Abandonment: The Roles of Prices, Weather, Irrigation and Insurance.�Proceedings of the Beltwide Cotton Conferences.��Memphis, TN: National Cotton Council.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Sall, I., Frisvold, G. and Tronstad, R. 2017. Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Cotton Acreage Abandonment Case Study of Selected Counties in the U.S. Cotton Belt.�Selected paper presented at the 2017 Western Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meetings. Lake Tahoe, Nevada.� July 9-11, 2017.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Cai, C. and Dallerba, S. 2017. The Economic Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture: A Multilevel Analysis. Paper presented at the 2017 meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Chen, Z., Dallerba, S. and Khanna, M. 2017. The Ricardian Model of Climate Change Impact with Interregional Trade Flows: Evidence from U.S. Agriculture. Paper presented at the 2017 meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Yang, Z., Dominguez, F., Zeng, X., Hu, H., Gupta, H. and Yang, B. 2016. Impact of Irrigation over the California Central Valley on Regional Climate. 2016 AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco, Calif.�12-16 Dec.�
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Progress 08/15/15 to 08/14/16
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience for this project is primarily the academic community. Considering that several contributions to the literature will be completed by the end of the project, we expect that other faculty members will use them for their own study. The section on results dissemination reports the numerous steps such as publications and presentations we havetaken in this direction this year. Beyond this community, we believe that this work is of interest to ranchers and farmers as well aspolicy makers and the public at large. We have already published two newsletters to inform the general public of our goals and contributions. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Courses taught related to this project: ACE 592 Spatial econometrics. Course taken by all the Research Assistants of Dr. Dall'erba on this project; ATMS 507 Climate Dynamics. Course taken by the Research Assistant of Dr. Dominguez on this project. Drs. Dall'erba and Dominguez hold weekly one-to-one meetings with theResearch Assistants of this project. Presentations/seminars (including those delivered by the Research Assistants) can be found in the Products section of this report. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?In addition to disseminating our results through the usual academic channels (presentations as well aspaper submissions), we have made every possible effort to share our work with a larger community through newsletters. Details are provided below: Presentations (see Products section above). Paper submission: Zhao Yang, Francina Dominguez, Xubin Zeng, Huancui Hu, Hoshin Gupta, and Ben Yang.2016.Impact of irrigation over the California Central Valley on regional climate. Submitted to the Journal of Hydrometeorology Publications: Dall'erba S. and Dominguez F. 2015. The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the South-West United States: The Ricardian Approach Revisited, Spatial Economic Analysis, 10, 4, 1-19. Newsletters: Dall'erba S. and Dominguez F. 2016. Climate change will affect farmers' bottom line. University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences (ACES). ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 7 June 2016. . Dall'erba S. and Dominguez F. 2015. New Research Directions on the Economic Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture. Policy Matters Newsletter. Departmentof Agricultural and Consumer Economics, UIUC. Dall'erba S. 2015. The Economic Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture - How Can the On-Going Debate Benefit from Regional Science? NARSC newsletter, 3,1. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Impact statement: Natural disasters cost billions of dollars every year to the U.S. agricultural sector. As such, improving the accuracy of current climate change impact estimates is needed. This research project is highly interdisciplinary and it offers significant improvements compared to the existing knowledge on the impact of climate change because it relies on the most recent socio-economic data from USDA's census and uses fine scale climate projections from dynamically downscaled models, including extreme events. Research accomplished this year has highlighted that changes in the climate will affectU.S. counties differently based on their geographical location, their altitude and their agricultural production process such as their reliance on irrigation. Therefore, we recommend adaptation strategies to be tailored to each area. Information on specific goals and % of overall completion: Goal 1 (30% completed): We havepublished one article wherethe appropriate forms of spillovers effects are the core of the study. It is applied to the SouthWestern part of the U.S. Results indicate that local, not global, spillover effects provide the best model fit. The paper's results highlight that farmland values are affected by the climate conditions and farm practices, such as irrigation, experienced locally and among neighbors. Water run-offs and irrigated water depletion are examples of the source of such interregional effects. Ongoing analysis aims at extending this approach to the entire U.S. Goal 2 (10% completed): The hierarchical approach is ongoing. Results will be reported next reporting period. Goal 3 (40% completed): An article demonstrating how support from crop insurance programs reduces the marginal effect of the climate variables, including extreme events, is about to be completed and submitted for publication. Results indicate clearly that net recipients have little incentive to adapt to changing climate conditions.Other types of government support will be investigated soon. Goal 4 (90% completed): Data from the most recent USDA censuses have been collected and are being used for several articles. Furthermore, Co-PI George Frisvold has created a county-level database merging data on climate, drought, and other weather extremes, cotton acreage abandonment, irrigation use, and crop insurance coverage to assess how climate and weather variables affect crop abandonment. He also heldmeetings with faculty at Iowa State University and the USDA Economic Research Service to obtain access to state-level agricultural R&D stock and agricultural Extension stock variables. These variables will be used to assess how prior investments in agricultural R&D and Extension may facilitate climate adaptation and affect land values. Co-PI Dominguez and her teamhavefocused on data processing for the observed historical period and for the model simulations of the historical and future periods. Past observations cover the period 1979 to 2013 and are from the North American Regional Reanalysis.Processed historical (1968-2000) and future (2038-2070) projected model data are from the North American Climate Change Assessment Program (8 regional climate models for both periods). All these data are being used by PI Dall'erba for the socio-economic analysis. Co-PI Dominguez also focuses on the role of heat waves and irrigation on regional climate models. A paper has been submitted along these lines.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Dallerba S. and Dominguez F. 2015. The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the South-West United States: The Ricardian Approach Revisited. Spatial Economic Analysis, 10, 4, 1-19.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Dallerba S. and Dominguez F. 2016. Climate change will affect farmers' bottom line. University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences (ACES). ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 7 June 2016. .
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Dallerba S. and Dominguez F. 2015. New Research Directions on the Economic Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture. Policy Matters Newsletter, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, UIUC.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
George Frisvold. 2016. Cotton Crop Abandonment: The Roles of Prices, Weather, Irrigation and Insurance. Selected paper presented at the Beltwide Cotton Conference, January 5-7, New Orleans, LA.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
George Frisvold. 2016. Cotton Crop Abandonment: The Roles of Prices, Weather, Irrigation and Insurance. Paper presented at a University of Illinois, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics Seminar, April 8, 2016, Champaign-Urbana, IL.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
George Frisvold. 2016. Cotton Acreage Abandonment: The Role of Economics, Climate, and Policies. Selected paper presented at the Canadian Agricultural Economics Society and the Western Agricultural Economics Association Joint Annual Meeting, June 21-24, Victoria, British Columbia.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Submitted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Zhao Yang, Francina Dominguez, Xubin Zeng, Huancui Hu, Hoshin Gupta and Ben Yang. 2016. Impact of irrigation over the California Central Valley on regional climate. Journal of Hydrometeorology.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Zhangliang Chen and Sandy Dallerba. 2016. The Role of Crop Insurance Programs in Climate Change Impact Measurement. 55th Annual Meeting of the Southern Regional Science Association, Washington DC, April 2016.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Zhangliang Chen and Sandy Dallerba. 2016. Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture Including crop insurance programs in Ricardian framework. ACE seminar (pERE), UIUC, Oct. 26, 2015.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Zhangliang Chen and Sandy Dallerba. 2016. Evaluating Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture Including Crop Insurance Programs in Ricardian framework. REAL seminar, UIUC, Dec. 2, 2015.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Zhangliang Chen and Sandy Dallerba. 2016. The Role of Crop Insurance Programs in Climate Change Impact Measurement. REAL seminar, UIUC, Mar. 9, 2016.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Zhangliang Chen and Sandy Dallerba. 2016. The Role of Crop Insurance Programs in Climate Change Impact Measurement. ACE seminar (pERE), UIUC, Mar. 14, 2016.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Zhangliang Chen and Sandy Dallerba. 2016. Do crop insurance programs preclude their recipients from adapting to new climate conditions? AERE 5th Annual Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun. 11, 2016.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Sandy Dallerba and Francina Dominguez. 2016. The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the Southwestern United States: The Ricardian Approach Revisited. 62nd Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, Portland, November 2015.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Dallerba, S. 2015. The Economic Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture How Can the On-Going Debate Benefit from Regional Science? NARSC newsletter, 3,1.
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