Source: NEVADA SYSTEM OF HIGHER EDUCATION submitted to
WATER SUSTAINABILITY IN SNOW-FED ARID LAND RIVER SYSTEM
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
TERMINATED
Funding Source
AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1003499
Grant No.
2014-67003-22105
Project No.
NEVW-2014-04479
Proposal No.
2014-04479
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
A3151
Project Start Date
Aug 1, 2014
Project End Date
Jun 30, 2019
Grant Year
2014
Project Director
Pohll, G.
Recipient Organization
NEVADA SYSTEM OF HIGHER EDUCATION
2215 RAGGIO PKWY
RENO,NV 895121095
Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
This project will develop an integrated systems-based approach to predict the robustness of the Truckee-Carson River System (TCRS) water supply to future hydroclimatic conditions, the resilience of the system to extreme events and changes in land-use and economic growth, and to assess stakeholder acceptance of alternative water policy institutional arrangements designed to enhance sustainability. By creating an integrated modeling framework designed to promote diverse stakeholder communities to collaboratively develop, with researchers, hydroclimatic models coupled with models of policy change, we will further the understanding of water management challenges common to snow-fed arid-land river systems and identify solutions with broad social acceptance for policy makers and resources managers. Through the integration of demand/supply hydroclimatic models, the utilization of collaborative modeling to engage stakeholders directly in the process of constructing climate scenarios, and a combination of collaborative and agent-based modeling to simulate stakeholder response to future hydroclimatic conditions, researchers and stakeholders will work toward a portfolio of resilient policy scenarios that will advance understanding of water sustainability in the American West. This project will be co-funded by both the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture; U.S. Department of Agriculture (NIFA-USDA).
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
50%
Applied
50%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1120210205075%
1120210207025%
Knowledge Area
112 - Watershed Protection and Management;

Subject Of Investigation
0210 - Water resources;

Field Of Science
2070 - Meteorology and climatology; 2050 - Hydrology;
Goals / Objectives
The goal of the project is to gain insight into the following research questions:Under what combination of hydroclimatic conditions and projections of population growth and economic development do current policy arrangements fail to meet supply obligations?What adaptive responses can be expected at the individual, community and river system levels?What negative consequences will be associated with responses to hydroclimatic scenarios (ex: decrease in groundwater recharge from reduced flow in irrigation canals, environmental impacts of dewatered agricultural lands, increased reliance on groundwater pumping, reduced diversity of the regional economy)?What institutional changes to water rights (ex: increased flexibility in trading, water banking, water markets) will lead to the greatest system robustness and/or resilience in the water supply system?Can climatic induced tipping points be identified in a water supply system?
Project Methods
Develop stakeholder-informed climate scenariosModel water supply/demand outcomes resulting from the climate scenariosDevelop policy scenarios that respond interactively to the water supply/demand outcomes

Progress 08/01/14 to 06/30/19

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience includes local stakeholders who rely on water supply within the Truckee/Carson Basin. Local stakeholders include: • Local farmers in the Truckee/Carson Watershed • Bureau of Reclamation • Carson Water Sub-conservancy District • City of Fernley • Fallon Shoshone Paiute Tribe • Northern Nevada Development Authority • Nevada State Engineer • Truckee Carson Irrigation District • Truckee Meadows Regional Planning Agency • The Nature Conservancy • Truckee River Flood Management Authority • Tahoe Regional Planning Agency • U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service - Stillwater Refuge In addition to local stakeholders the audience includes scientists who are interested in collaborative modeling techniques for snow dominated watersheds. The scientific audient is multi-disciplinary including: • Hydrology • Climatology • Agriculture • Social Science • Political Science • Economics Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?A variety of training opportunities were developed for the project team members, students, and other scientists: · Graduate students and faculty participated in NWRA workshops on water management and hydrologic modeling and chaired sessions at NWRA annual meetings. Two Ph.D. and one M.S. student graduated from the University of Nevada, Reno. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Final project results are disseminated through the stakeholder advisory group workshops. Project results were also disseminated to the scientific community using traditional forums such as conference presentations, presentations at seminar series for universities and other research organizations, and journal publications. Researchers on this project have been invited to give presentations to local, regional, and state water agencies. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Developed 10 key takeaways for the local stakeholders and scientific communitiy: 1. Climate projections show warmer tempertures and increased precipitation variability. 2. Local stakeholders are concerned about climate change impacts on water resources. 3. Scenarios of a warmer climate demonstrates measureable snowpack changes that affect the timing and availability of water supply. 4. The sequencing of wet and dry years matters for evaluating future basin supply conditions and operations. 5. Local water management organizations are adapting to climate-induced water supply variablity, and in doing so encounter barriers to implementing their desired strategy. 6. Allowing Truckee River reservoirs to store water earlier in the year has the potential to enhance water supply. 7. Managed aquifer recharge could potentially mitigate lack of reservoir storage on the Carson River. 8. Prior Appropiration Doctrine has allocated water over time to higher valued economic uses. 9. Water for the Seasons facilitated stakeholder-driven collaborative research and social learning. 10. Local water managers voiced the need for additional collaborative research to investigate climate change impacts and support ongoing climate adaptation across the river system.

Publications

  • Type: Other Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2019 Citation: Sterle, K., L. Singletary, G. Lee, K. Rollins, G. Pohll, M. McCarthy, S. Rajagopal, C. Albano, W. Boyer, J. Huntington, M. Dettinger, R. Niswonger, E. Morway, W. Kitlasten, and M. Gardner, S. Coors, and L. Jose, 2019. Water Sustainability and Climate in the Truckee-Carson River System, Western United States  10 Key Takeaways from the Water for the Seasons Collaborative Research Program, University of Nevada Cooperative Extension Special Publication.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Singletary, L. & Sterle, K. (2018). Participatory Research to Assess the Climate Resiliency of Snow-fed River Dependent Communities: A Collaborative Modeling Case Study in the Truckee-Carson River System. In P. R. Lachapelle & D. Albrecht (Eds.), Addressing Climate Change at the Community Level in the United States. New York, NY: Routledge. Retrieved from: https://www.routledge.com/Addressing-Climate-Change-at-the-Community-Level-in-the-United-States/Lachapelle-Albrecht/p/book/9780815380924
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Sterle, K. (2018). Collaborative Modeling to Assess Climate Adaptation and Science Information Needs in Snow-fed River Systems (Doctoral dissertation). University of Nevada, Reno. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11714/3353
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Sterle, K. & Singletary, L. (In review). Supporting Local Climate Adaptation through Knowledge Co-production: Outcomes from a Collaborative Modeling Research Project in the Western United States. Submitted to: Climate Services.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Sterle, K., Hatchett, B.J., Singletary, L. & Pohll, G. (2019). Hydroclimate Variability in Snow-fed River Systems: Local Water Managers Perspectives on Adapting to the New Normal. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0031.1
  • Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Sterle, K. & Singletary, L. (2018). Shifts in Local Climate Adaptation Strategies over the 2015-2017 Water Years: A Case Study in the Truckee-Carson River System (FS 18-04). University of Nevada Cooperative Extension: Reno, Nevada.
  • Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Thorne, J.H., Wraithwall, J. & Franco, G. (2018). Californias Changing Climate 2018. Californias Fourth Climate Change Assessment. California Natural Resources Agency. Retrieved from: http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: USGCRP. (2018). Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II: Report-in-Brief [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, & B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 186 pp. Retrieved from: https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/NCA4_Report-in-Brief.pdf
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Albano, C. (2019). Atmospheric Rivers and Climate Stresses: Retrospective and Prospective Assessments of the Impacts of Storm Variability, Climate Changes, and Extremes in the Western US (Doctoral dissertation). University of Nevada, Reno.
  • Type: Other Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Albano, C., Sterle, K. & Dettinger, M. (In review). Four Climate Scenarios Developed to Explore Adaptation Strategies for the Truckee-Carson River System. University of Nevada Cooperative Extension Fact Sheet: Reno, Nevada.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Raynor, D., Rajagopal, S. & Sterle, K. (2018). Quantifying Contributions of Snow to Water Supply in The Western U.S. Journal of Nevada Water Resources Association. Winter 2018, 5-17. doi:10.22542/2018/1.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Boyer, W. (2018). A Dynamic Decision Support System for Drought Resiliency and Climate Change (Masters thesis). University of Nevada, Reno. Retrieved from: http://hdl.handle.net/11714/3414
  • Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2019 Citation: Boyer, W., Cristman, L. & McCarthy, M. (2019). A Dynamic Decision Support System for Assessing the Impacts of Drought and Climate Change to Water Supply and Demand within the Truckee Meadows. Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, USA, (Publication No. 71002).
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2019 Citation: Sterle, K., Jose, L., Coors, S., Singletary, L., Pohll, G. & Rajagopal, S. (In press). Collaboratively Modeling Reservoir Reoperation to Adapt to Earlier Snowmelt Runoff. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001136
  • Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Sterle, K. & Singletary, L. (2018). Adapting Truckee River Reservoir Operations for a Warmer Climate (FS 18-06). University of Nevada Cooperative Extension Fact Sheet: Reno, Nevada.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Lee, G.E., Rollins, K. & Singletary, L. (In review). An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Permitted Place of Use Transfers on the Performance of Prior Appropriations Water Rights. Submitted to Land Economics.
  • Type: Other Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: Sterle, K., Kitlasten, W., Morway, E., Niswonger, R.G. & Singletary, L. (In review). Managed Aquifer Recharge in Snow-fed River Basins: What, Why and How? University of Nevada Cooperative Extension Fact Sheet: Reno, Nevada.


Progress 08/01/17 to 07/31/18

Outputs
Target Audience: The target audience includes local stakeholders who rely on water supply within the Truckee/Carson Basin. Local stakeholders include: • Local farmers in the Truckee/Carson Watershed • Bureau of Reclamation • Carson Water Sub-conservancy District • City of Fernley • Fallon Shoshone Paiute Tribe • Northern Nevada Development Authority • Nevada State Engineer • Truckee Carson Irrigation District • Truckee Meadows Regional Planning Agency • The Nature Conservancy • Truckee River Flood Management Authority • Tahoe Regional Planning Agency • U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service - Stillwater Refuge In addition to local stakeholders the audience includes scientists who are interested in collaborative modeling techniques for snow dominated watersheds. The scientific audient is multi-disciplinary including: • Hydrology • Climatology • Agriculture • Social Science • Political Science • Economics Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?A variety of training opportunities were developed for the project team members, students, and other scientists: · Development of two college courses: 1) Perspectives on Western Hydroclimate graduate seminar, Fall 2017, University of Nevada, Reno. Included 15 invited speakers with expertise in social, physical, biological aspects of climate variability and change in the western US and associated management challenges. · Development of R Short Course in Environmental Data Analysis, May, 2018. A three-day short course in R programming software with emphasis on climate data management and analysis designed to allow stakeholder communities to use downscaled climate and hydrologic data for their specific locations. · Graduate student working on the WftS Project developed course material and presented R Short Course in Environmental Data Analysis to tribal partners at Salish Kootenai College (Pablo, MT). · Graduate student served as student advisor to Nevada Water Resources Association (NWRA) advising on conference and workshop planning and student fellowship awards. · Graduate students and faculty participated in NWRA workshops on water management and hydrologic modeling and chaired sessions at NWRA annual meetings. · Graduate student and postdoctoral researchers attended and presented at the joint USDA/NSF Climate Program Project Directors Meetings in Washington, DC (Jan 2018). · WftS graduate student completed Ph.D. in the UNR Graduate Program for Hydrologic Sciences (K. Sterle). · Graduate student working on the WftS-TWMA drought planning project completed M.Sc. in the UNR Graduate Program for Hydrologic Sciences (W. Boyer). · Graduate student completed thesis proposal for Ph.D. in the UNR Graduate Program for Hydrologic Sciences, "Characterizing historical and future impacts of climate variability and extremes in the Western United States" (C. Albano). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Our research project employs a novel collaborative modeling approach that integrates stakeholders directly into the modeling process. Results are disseminated through bi-annual stakeholder advisory group workshops, one-on-one meetings with individual stakeholders, and organizational survey instruments. The stakeholder engagement is iterative in nature to provide valuable input on how the modeling process evolves and provide critical input on potential solutions to enhance system resiliency. Project results are disseminated to the scientific community using traditional forums such as conference presentations, presentations at seminar series for universities and other research organizations, and journal publications. Researchers on this project have been invited to give presentations to local, regional, and state water agencies interested in the approaches we are developing or this research. During this reporting period the project produced 12 conference presentations, 20 journal articles, five book chapters, one webinar, one community radio interview, and five extension publications, and one US Geological Survey Fact Sheet, two master's theses, and one Ph.D. dissertation. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?During the next reporting period the project expects to accomplish the following goals: · Complete research, analysis and publication of the report on transferability/scalability of the WftS models for snow-fed arid lands, globally. · Complete dissertation chapter, and submit journal article, on scenario-development methodologies. · Finish hydrologic and operational simulations that exhibit significant variability and warming trends and determine success of stakeholder informed adaptation strategies. · Continue simulating water resources management strategies to mitigate impacts of climate change on Carson River Basin. · Continue simulating feedbacks between Carson River and Truckee River basins to evaluate cascading impacts from climate change and water management; develop paper on integration of water resources analysis for the Truckee River and Carson River Basins. · Continue synergistic project work with local water managers and researchers, to collaboratively identify climate adaptation strategies to be simulated via tailored hydrologic and operations models. · Continue synergistic work to conduct economic analysis of water allocation efficiency of Prior Appropriation Doctrine modifications and alternative water allocation mechanisms on arid lands. · Hold final workshop with SAG and project researchers. · Deliver oral presentation (paper) at the iEMS, AWRA, AAEA, AGU, NWRA, and other conferences in 2018-2019. · Revise, prepare, and complete manuscripts to submit to (Climatic Change, Journal of Hydrometeorology, Journal of Hydrology, Water Resources Research, Environmental Software and Modeling, Journal of Hydrology, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Land Economic American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics). · Prepare and submit for peer-review three Extension publications. ?

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? The main accomplishments during this reporting period: 1. Development of several climate-extreme scenarios including, hydroclimatic-extremes, future low- and high-frequency climate scenario, and ensemble global climate models appropriate for the west. 2. Developed probabilistic characterizations of snowpack, soil-moisture, and runoff responses to atmospheric-river storms across the western US, conditioned by AR intensities, directions, temperatures, and antecedent hydrologic conditions. 3. Calculated increased risk of declining flows from Lake Tahoe to downstream water users. 4. Developed simulation results showing the impact of climate change on growers in the Carson River basin; results were presented according to individual water rights and showed that both high and low priority water right holders will be impacted by future climate conditions. 5. Continued collaboration with 12 key stakeholder representatives of diverse water use communities in the project area to identify adaptation strategies and simulate outcomes using hydrologic and operations models tailored to the river system. These representatives comprise the WftS Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG). 6. Conducted workshops convening project researchers and SAG to inform research agenda, validate model simulations, and disseminate research findings. 7. Partnered with Truckee-Meadows Water Authority (TMWA) to use output from the WftS hydrologic models of the Truckee River to inform TMWA's revised 30-year Drought Contingency Plan. 8. Developed methods for characterizing and quantifying snow-fed arid land river systems around the world (no current database/map exists that quantifies how dependent river systems are on water from snowpack vs. rainfall). 9. Collaboratively developed management strategies with 12 key stakeholder members, including changes in irrigation strategies, managed aquifer recharge programs, and water conservation. Plans/options for surface water storage remain a challenge for growers in Carson Valley. 10. Developed MODIS snow covered area time series maps for the upper Carson River watersheds for comparison to simulated snow covered area. This analysis improved model's ability to simulate the form of precipitation and rates of snowmelt, which are important for evaluating climate change impacts to agriculture in Carson Valley. 11. Conducted systematic and iterative engagements with 12 key volunteer water managers (Stakeholder Affiliate Group or SAG) representing the Truckee-Carson River System. The project team works with the SAG to examine local climate adaptation, assess shifts over time in adaptation strategies, and identify implementation barriers coincident to interannual hydroclimate variability. The SAG also identifies science information needs to support and facilitate local climate adaptation planning.

Publications

  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Coats, R. and Albano, C. (2017). Climate Change: hydrologic impacts and responses. Ecosystem Resilience, Climate Change and Environmental Management in the Tahoe Basin Coats R., Heyvaert, A., Schladow, G.. Univ. of California Press
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Dettinger, M., Lavers, D. (2017). The Effects of Atmospheric Rivers. Atmospheric RiversTwo Decades of Research Ralph, M., Dettinger, M., Waliser, D., Rutz, J. Springer International Publishing.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2018 Citation: Singletary, L. & Sterle, K. (2018). Participatory Research to Assess the Climate Resiliency of Snow-fed River Dependent Communities: A Collaborative Modeling Case Study in the Truckee-Carson River System. Addressing Climate Change at the Community Level in the United States. Community Development Research and Practice Series P.R. Lachapelle and D. Albrecht [Eds.]. Routledge. New York, NY.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2018 Citation: Singletary, L., Sterle, K., Simpson, K. (2017). Applied Methods for Assessing Climate Resilience of Water Resources. Western Rural Development Center Project on Applied Climate Science Research
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2018 Citation: Vicuna, S., Omojola, A., Dettinger, M.D., Lall, U., Noyola, A., Raschid, L., Redwood, M., Ferguson, D., Guereca, L.P., Janwal, P., Weis, A. (2017). Urban Water Systems in Climate Change and Cities. Second Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network USGCRP.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Albano, C., Dettinger, M., and Soulard, C. (2017). Influence of atmospheric rivers on vegetation productivity and fire patterns in the Southwestern US:. Journal of Geophysical Research--Biogeosciences.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Dettinger, M.D., Ralph, F.M., Rutz, J.J. (2017). Historical return periods of strong atmospheric rivers making landfalls along the U.S. West Coast. J. Geophysical Letters.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2018 Citation: Gardner, M., Morton, C., Huntington, J., Niswonger, R., Henson W., (2018). Input data processing tools for the integrated hydrologic model GSFLOW. Environmental Modeling and Software
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Harpold, A., Dettinger, M., and Rajagopal, S. (2017). Defining snow drought and why it matters. EOS, Transactions of the AGU. 98 (5),15
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Kauneckis, D., Terman, J. (2017). Innovating from below: why local governments in the United States create climate policies.Regional Environmental Change.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Konrad, C.P., Dettinger, M.D. (2017). Flood runoff in relation to water vapor transport by atmospheric river over the Western US 1949-2015. Geophysical Research Letters. 44
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Lamjiri, M.A., Dettinger, M.D., Ralph, R.M. (2017). Hourly storm characteristics along the U.S. West Coast - Role of atmospheric rivers in extreme storms. Geophysical Research Letters.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Lee, G.-E., Rollins, K. S., Singletary, L. (2017). An Empirical Analysis of Water Allocation Efficiency through the Prior Appropriation Doctrine: A Case Study in the Carson River Valley. Oral Presentation. American Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Morway, E.D., Niswonger, R.G., Triana, E. (2017). Toward improved simulation of river operations through integration with a hydrologic model. Environmental Modeling and Software
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Niswonger, R.G., Morway, E.D., Triana, E., Huntington, J.L. (2017). Managed Aquifer Recharge through Off-Season Irrigation in Agricultural Regions. Water Resources Research. 53 6970
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Polade, S., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D., Dettinger, M., and Pierce, D. (2017). Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate region. Nature Scientific Reports. 7 10783
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Rajagopal, S., Harpold A. (2017). Testing and Improving Temperature Thresholds for Snow and Rain Prediction in the Western United States. J. American Water Resources
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Raynor, D., Rajagopal, S. & Sterle, K. (2017). Quantifying Contributions of Snow to Water Supply in The Western U.S. Journal of Nevada Water Resources Association.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Sapin, J.R., Saito, L., Dai, A., Ragagopal, S, Hanna, R., Kauneckis, D. (2018). Reservoir Operations and Extreme Hydrological and Climatic Conditions: Modeled Impacts on Fish Sustainability below Shasta Lake. Water Resources
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Sterle, K., Hatchett, B., Singletary, L. & Pohll, G. (2017). Hydroclimate Variability in Snow-fed River Systems: Local Water Managers Perspectives on Adapting to the New Normal.. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society..
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sterle, K., Singletary, L. (2017). Adapting to Variable Water Supply in the Truckee-Carson River System, Western USA.Water. 9 (10), 768
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Sterle, K., Singletary, L. (2017). An assessment of drought adaptation to variable water supply in the western United States.J. American Water Resources.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Sterle, K., Singletary, L., Simpson, K., Kauneckis, D. (2018). Assessing the climate resiliency and adaptive capacity of a snow-fed river basin in the western USA: Results of a survey of local organizations. J. American Water Resources
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Killion, A. K., Sterle, K., Bondank, E., Drabik, J., Bera, A., Alian, S., Goodrich, K., Hale, M., Myer, R.A., Phung, Q., Shew A.M., & Thayer, A.W. (2017). The Future of Sustainability Research: Challenges and Opportunities in Training Interdisciplinary Researchers.. Ecology and Society
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sterle, K., Jose, L., Coors, S., Singletary, L., Rajagopal, S., Pohll, G. & Thomas, J. (2017). Adapting to Earlier Snowmelt through Reservoir Reoperation. Oral Presentation. Annual Conference of the Italian Society for Climate Sciences. Bologna, Italy.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sterle, K. & Singletary, L. (2017). Adapting to Variable Water Supply in the Truckee-Carson River System. Oral Presentation.American Water Resources Association Annual Conference. Portland, OR
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Kitlasten, W., Gardner, M., Morway, E.D., Niswonger, R.G., Triana, E. (2017). Advancements in hydrologic modeling.California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System First Annual Coordination Workshop. Sacramento, CA
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Lee, G.-E., Rollins, K. S., Singletary, L. (2018). An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Permitted Place of Use Transfers on the Performance of Prior Appropriations Water Rights. Oral Presentation.. The 6th World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists.. The University of Gothenburg, Sweden. June 25-29,.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: McCarthy, M.I., Albano, C. Dettinger, M.D. (2017). Climate Resiliency in the Truckee-Carson River System: Integrating Hydroclimatic and Socioeconic Models. Yosemite Climate and Water Conference. Yosemite National Park, CA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Kitlasten, W., Gardner, M., Morway, E.D., Niswonger, R.G., Triana, E (2018). Implications of earlier snowmelt and runoff on surface water and groundwater in the Carson River Watershed. Oral Presentation. Carson Water Subconservancy District Board of Directors and Carson River Watershed Committee. Carson City, NV
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Kitlasten, W., Niswonger, R.G., Morway, E.D., Gardner, M., Triana, E (2018). Implications of earlier snowmelt and runoff on surface water and groundwater use in the Carson Valley. CWSD Water Summit.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Morway, E.D., Niswonger, R.G., Triana, E., Regan, R.S., Kitlasten, W (2017). Improved simulation of conjunctive use in river operations simulations: Seamless integration of MODSIM and GSFLOW. , U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Boulder Canyon Operations Offices, Invited Presentation. Boulder City, NV
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Morway, E.D., Niswonger, R.G., Triana, E. (2017). Improving simulation and understanding of third-party impacts resulting from water-right transfers. International Groundwater Modeling Center (IGWMC). Golden, CO
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Niswonger, R.G., Morway, E.D., Triana, E., Huntington, J. (2017). Managed aquifer recharge through off-season irrigation in agricultural regions. Seminar presentation to the Division of Statewide Integrated Water Management Department of Water Resources. Sacramento, CA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Niswonger, R.G., Morway, E.D., Kitlasten, W., Triana, E., Gardner, M., Regan, R.S. (2017). Modeling water supply effects on the distribution and consumption of water in developed river basins. Scientific Advisory Committee Keynote. International Groundwater Modeling Center (IGWMC). Golden, CO
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Sterle, K. (2018). Transdisciplinary Water Resources Research Guided by the EMBeRS Approach (Oral Presentation). National Council for Science and the Environment. Washington, DC
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Sterle, K. & Singletary, L. (2018). Adapting to Variable Water Supply in the Truckee-Carson River System: Results of Focus Groups Conducted in 2016 with Local Water Managers.. University of Nevada Cooperative Extension Special Publication:Reno, NV. (SP-17-15). Available at: http://www.unce.unr.edu/publications/files/nr/2017/sp1715.pdf..
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sterle, K., Pohll, G., McCutcheon, K, (2017). An integrated hydroclimatic model of the Truckee-Carson River System. UNR Cooperative Extension,
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Dettinger, M.D., Sterle, K, Simpson, K., Singletary, L., McCarthy, M.I., Fitzgerald, K. (2017). Climate Scenarios for the Truckee-Carson River System. WftS Fact Sheet - submitted for publication through University of Nevada, Reno Cooperative Extension.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: McCarthy, M.I. (2018). Climate and Agriculture Resilience in the American Southwest: Safeguarding Ancient Traditions Against Modern Threats. Invited article and profile. Published in Scientia, an on-line journal produced by Science Diffussion out of London, UK
  • Type: Other Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2018 Citation: Singletary, L., Sterle, K., Simpson, K. (2018). Collaborative modeling to assess and enhance climate resiliency. University of Nevada Cooperative Extension, Refereed Extension Publications
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sterle, K., Pohll, G. & Singletary, L (2017). Collaboratively Modeing Water Resources: An Overview of Hydrologic and Operations Models in the Truckee-Carson River System.. University of Nevada Cooperative Extension Special Publication:Reno, NV. (SP-17-04). Available at: http://www.unce.unr.edu/publications/files/nr/2017/sp1704.pdf.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Johannis, M., Flint, L., Dettinger, M., Flint, A., and Ochoa, R. (2017). The role of snowpack, rainfall, and reservoirs in the distribution and consumption of water in developed river basins. Scientific Advisory Committee Keynote. International Groundwater Modeling Center (IGWMC). Golden, CO.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Palmer, Anna. Adapting vulnerability indices to tribal communities in the Western United States. (2018). Ohio University
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Hurley, Alexander (Kauneckis, D., Chair). An Exploration of a Nationwide Social Network of U.S. Local Governments and Climate Change Policy Partners, Masters of Science Thesis. (2018). Ohio University
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Gordon, Miles (Kauneckis, D., Chair). Climate Planning with Multiple Knowledge Systems: The Case of Tribal Adaptation Plans, Masters of Science Thesis. (2018). Ohio University
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Sterle, K.. Collaborative Modeling to Assess Climate Adaptation and Science Information Needs in Snow-fed River Systems. University of Nevada, Reno Graduate Program of Hydrologic Sciences Dissertation Defense in Hydrology, Desert Research Institute, April 24, 2018.. (2018). Unversity of Nevada, Reno
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Tashev, Azmet. Ecosystem services assessment in management tools for improving climate resilience in arid snow-fed river systems. (2017). Ohio University.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Wahab, Sharif (Kauneckis, D., Chair). Effectiveness of an Online Platform for Climate Adaptation Knowledge Diffusion among Future Decision-makers: A Case Study of weADAPT, , Ohio University, Masters of Science Thesis. (201


Progress 08/01/16 to 07/31/17

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience includes local stakeholders who rely on water supply within the Truckee/Carson Basin. Local stakeholders include: Local farmers in the Truckee/Carson Watershed Bureau of Reclamation Carson Water Sub-conservancy District City of Fernley Fallon Shoshone Paiute Tribe Northern Nevada Development Authority Nevada State Engineer Truckee Carson Irrigation District Truckee Meadows Regional Planning Agency The Nature Conservancy Truckee River Flood Management Authority Tahoe Regional Planning Agency U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service - Stillwater Refuge In addition to local stakeholders the audience includes scientists who are interested in collaborative modeling techniques for snow dominated watersheds. The scientific audient is multi-disciplinary including: Hydrology Climatology Agriculture Social Science Political Science Economics Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?A variety of training opportunities were developed for the project team members, students, and other scientists: An undergraduate student participating in the National Science Foundation Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) program had the opportunity to work with researchers on our project to evaluate the transferability of the collaborative modeling process. A 3-day training course was provided by researchers on our project (Kitlasten, Morway, and Niswonger) to a variety of water managers and water agency staff from Nevada and California on the capabilities and application of the GSFLOW-MODSIM software, Sonoma County Water Agency, Santa Rosa, CA. May 2-4, 2017. A suite of software tools used for creating GSFLOW-MODSIM models for this project was disseminated to the broader water resources community for beta testing by other model development projects. A Ph.D. student on our project (Sterle) attended the National Science Foundation EMBeRS (Employing Model-Based Reasoning in Socio-Environmental Synthesis) workshop June 8-16, 2017 in El Paso Texas. A postdoctoral researcher on our project (Kitlasten) attended training on parameter and uncertainty estimation, Austin Texas, May 5-12, 2017 and Lakewood Colorado, September 11-15, 2017. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Our research project employs a novel collaborative modeling approach that integrates stakeholders directly into the modeling process. Results are disseminated through bi-annual stakeholder advisory group workshops, one-on-one meetings with individual stakeholders, and organizational survey instruments. The stakeholder engagement is iterative in nature to provide valuable input on how the modeling process evolves and provide critical input on potential solutions to enhance system resiliency. Project results are disseminated to the scientific community using traditional forums such as conference presentations, presentations at seminar series for universities and other research organizations, and journal publications. Researchers on this project have been invited to give presentations to local, regional, and state water agencies interested in the approaches we are developing or this research. During this reporting period the project produced 19 conference presentations, eight journal articles, one book chapter, and four other types of publications (e.g. extension publications). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?During the next reporting period the project expects to accomplish the following goals: Develop stakeholder informed climate scenarios that exhibit significant variability and warming trends Simulate the high-variability climate scenarios in the hydrologic and operational models to determine impacts on system resiliency. Develop stakeholder informed solutions to enhance system resiliency under highly variable climate conditions Continue to present results to stakeholders to evaluate feasibility of implementation and elicit feedback for modifications. Develop presentations for a variety of scientific conferences Develop peer-reviewed journal articles Release software and data archives for this project

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? There have been three main accomplishments during this reporting period: Engaged local water managers to identify plausible climate scenarios Simulated hydrologic and operational outcomes for the Truckee/Carson River system Developed water management strategies to enhance system resiliency and inform stakeholders on tradeoffs required to implement these strategies A key component of the collaborative modeling research design featured in this study is the systematic engagement of local water managers into the development of plausible and relevant climate and water management scenarios, which are then evaluated using simulated hydrologic and operational outcomes for the river system. This research includes an iterative process that incorporates water manager and stakeholder knowledge and perspectives into the development of subsequent model analysis; continued information transfer is guided by information gaps identified during stakeholder meetings. Findings from this study are expected to be relevant and useful to local water managers to promote adaptation to a changing climate. In addition, potential water management solutions aimed at enhancing system resiliency to climate change were identified and evaluated with the hydrologic modeling tools. The simulation results allowed stakeholders to clearly identify tradeoffs in costs and benefits associated with different water management options that will impact individual water right holders.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kauneckis, D., Singletary, L., McCarthy, M., 2016. Resilient Rivers, EcoSummit 2017: Engineering Change, Montpellier, France
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kitlasten, W., Niswonger, R., Morway, E., Gardner, M., 2016. Comparison of model calibration results under two water allocation schemes, USGS National Groundwater Workshop, Reno, NV.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Lucas, S., Sterle, K., Singletary, L., 2016. Evaluating the Transferability of Collaborative Modeling - Participatory Research Methods Across Snot-fed Arid Land River Systems, University of Nevada, Reno Summer REU Student Poster Presenation.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kauneckis, D., 2016. Localizing climate adaptation: examining climate policies among US local governments, EcoSummit 2016, Montpellier France.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kauneckis, D., Simpson, K., Tashev, A., Sterle, K., Singletary, L., McCarthy, M, 2016. Hacking the River: Approaches for improving the institutional resilience of river systems, EcoSummit 2016, Montpellier, France.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Tashev, A. and D. Kauneckis, 2016. Integrating ecosystem service production with institutional regimes in arid river systems, EcoSummit 2016, Montpellier, France.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Belton, L., McCarthy, M., Straube, M., Clement, J., 2016.Engaging StakeholdersWhat Works, What Doesnt and Why. Sagebrush Ecosystem Conservation: All Lands, All Hands. Joint Conference of the Great Basin Consortium and WAFWA-Sponsored Sagebrush Science and Management Meeting. Feb. 23-26, Salt Lake City, UT. Submitted Abstract and Workshop.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: McCarthy, M.I., Singletary, L., Chief, K., Kaunekis,D., 2016.Climate, Water and the American Indian FarmerAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Profiled Session, National Meeting (Feb 2016, Washington, DC), Media outreach panel,
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kauneckis, D., 2016.Peopling the Hydroscapes: adding decision sciences to the water nexusFood-Energy-Water Nexus  National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment,
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Dettinger, M., 2016. Managing Water Resources at the River Basin Scale. US Geological Survey & University of Nevada, Reno 16th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: The Food-Energy-Water Nexus, January 18-21, Washington, DC.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Dettinger, M., 2016.Scenarios-based climate-extremes assessmentA policy-friendly complement to ensembles: 16TH National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment, Washington DC, January 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kauneckis, D., 2016. Managing Water Resources at the River Basin Scale, Ohio University 16th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: The Food-Energy-Water Nexus, January 18-21, Washington, DC.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: McCarthy, M., Ringler, C. Garrick, D., Kauneckis, D., 2016. Managing Water Resources at the River Basin Scale16th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: The Food-Energy-Water Nexus, January 18-21, Washington, DC.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Dettinger, M.D., 2016. Historical and future relations between large storms and droughts in California:San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, 14(2), 29 p. ]
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Dettinger, M.D., and McCarthy, M. 2016. Designing climate-extremes scenarios for a Water Sustainability and Climate Study of the Truckee and Carson Rivers System: Nevada Water Resources Association Annual Conference, Las Vegas, March 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kauneckis, D., 2016. Use of Science in Local and Regional Policy Makingcourse, ES 300 - People and the Environment, Ohio University, March 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Niswonger, R., Morway, E.,2016. GSFLOW Development for Conjunctive Management of Groundwater/Surface-Water Systems in Agricultural Areas USGS National Research Program Colloquium Series, March 11, 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Palmer, A., Gordon, M., Donkor, C., Kloepfer, J., Kauneckis, D., 2016. Identifying vulnerabilities to climate change on tribal lands in the American West Native Waters on Arid Lands Tribal Summit.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kauneckis, D., Terman J., 2016. Innovating from Below: The Landscape of Local Climate Policy Innovation in the United States American Political Science Association.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2016 Citation: Behrangi A., Yin X., Ye H., Rajagopal S. (submitted).2016.Distinguishing snowfall from rainfall using near surface atmospheric information: comparative assessment and uncertainty analysisJournal of the American Water Resources
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Davis, S., Kauneckis, D., Kruse, N., Miller, K., Zimmer, M., Dabelko, G., 2016. Closing the loop: Integrative systems management of waste in food, energy, and water systemsSpecial Issue: FEW Nexus, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 1-14, DOI: 10.1007/s13412-016-0370-0.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Dettinger, M., Simpson, K., Singletary, L., Fitzgerald, K., 2016. Climate scenarios for the Truckee-Carson River System: Water for the Seasons Factsheet, 5 p.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kauneckis, D., 2016. Challenges and Opportunities for Studying Decision Making in Snowfed River Systems Globally Voinovich School for Leadership and Public Affairs, Ohio University.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: McCarthy, M., Singletary, L., Sterle, K., Simpson, K., Kauneckis, D., Pohll, G., Dettinger, M., 2016. Water for the seasons: Sustaining water and climate resiliency in the Truckee-Carson River System. UNCE Fact Sheet. Reno, NV: University of Nevada Cooperative Extension. FS-16-01.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Morway, Eric E., Nisownger Richard, G., Triana, Enrique, 2016. Toward improved Simulation of river operations through integration with a hydrologic model, Env Modeling & Software, 82, 255-274.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Rajagopal, S., and A. Harpold, 2016. Testing and Improving temperature thresholds for snow and rain prediction in the western United States, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, vol 52(5), DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12443
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Simpson, K., Singletary, L., Sterle, K., Kauneckis, D.2016. Assessing the Climate Resiliency and Adaptive Capacity of the Truckee-Carson River System: Results of a Survey of Local Organizations. UNCE Special Publication. Reno, NV: University of Nevada, Reno - Cooperative Extension.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Singletary, L., 2016. Collaborative Modeling to Assess and Enhance Community Climate Resiliency, University of Nevada Reno, Cooperative Extension
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Singletary, L., Sterle, K., Simpson, K., 2016. Applied Methods for Assessing the Climate Resilience of Water Resources. Western Rural Development Center(Book Project on Applied Climate Science Research.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Harpold, A.A., S. Rajagopal, J.B. Crews, T. Winchell, R. Schumer, 2017. Relative Humidity Has Uneven Effects on Shifts From Snow to Rain Over the Western U.S., Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL075046
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Sterle, K., Pohll, G., McCutcheon, K., 2016. An integrated hydroclimatic model of the Truckee-Carson River System. UNCE Special Publication. Reno, NV: University of Nevada, Reno - Cooperative Extension.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Niswonger, R., Morway, E., Triana, E., and Huntington, J.L., 2017. Managed aquifer recharge through off-season irrigation in agricultural regions, Water Resources Research, doi:10.1002/2017WR020458.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sterle, K. and Singletary L., 2017. Adapting to Variable Water Supply in the Truckee-Carson River System, Western USA. Water, In Press
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Lee, G.E., Rollins, K., & Singletary, L. 2017. An Empirical Analysis of Water Allocation Efficiency through the Prior Appropriation Doctrine: A Case Study in the Carson River Valley, Nevada. In Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting. Paper Presented Chicago, IL, USA, July 30-August 1


Progress 08/01/15 to 07/31/16

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience includes local stakeholders and the broader scientific community. The project team has actively engaged local stakeholders through the formation of a Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG). The SAG consists of the following: Carson Water Subconservancy District (CWSD) Fernley - City of Fernley Fallon Shoshone Paiute Tribe (FSPT) Northern Nevada Development Authority (NNDA) Nevada State Engineer (StateEng) Truckee Carson Irrigation District (TCID) Truckee Meadows Regional Planning Agency (TMRPA) The Nature Conservancy (TNC) Truckee River Flood Management Authority (TRFMA) Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) US Fish and Wildlife Service - Stillwater The SAG meets semi-annually to discuss specific results related to the Water for the Seasons Project. In addition to the semi-annual meetings project team members meet with individual organizations after each SAG meeting to discuss how project results are relevant to their mission in the Truckee/Carson Basin. The tools developed in the project are meant to be transferable to other locations. Project results are disseminated to the larger scientific community (hydrology, climate science, social science, economics, political science, and agricultural science) through peer-reviewed publications, book chapters, and national conferences. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? USGS postdoctoral researcher (Wes Christensen) attended NWRA Water Rights in Nevada Seminar (Dec 2015) and Python Programming Language and Groundwater Modeling (Aug 2015). He also joined the USGS Mentoring Program starting in the fall of 2015 and attended the NWRA Conference in Reno (Oct 2015). The Carson River modeling group (USGS) began development of a new course, "Development Application of Coupled Hydrology and Operations Models." This 1-week course will be held during the fall of 2016 and will be hosted by USGS and the California Water & Environmental Forum. The class will be open to scientists around the country who are interested in learning to develop and apply coupled hydrology and operations models. WftS GRA (Kelley Sterle) attended Part 1 and 2 (of 3) of Riverware Model Development (3 day courses in the development and application of Riverware operations models). WftS Co-PI (Kauneckis) presented the WftS project, "Water Out West: Using Decision Sciences to Understand Complex Socio-ecological Systems" to Consortium for Energy, Environment and Economics (CE3) staff and students. https://www.ohio.edu/ce3/news-events/article.cfm?customel_datapageid_1887958=2778287 Co-PI Kauneckis utilized WftS project to prepare two graduate students (Courtney Donkor and Alex Sargent) for the National Association of Schools of Public Affairs and Administration (NASPAA) Global Climate Simulation - School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indianapolis, IN team for Midwest Universities region. Four undergraduate researchers participated in the WftS Project through a partnership with the UNR/REU Program "The Value of Snow" during the summer of 2015. Two of the REU students were supported by the WftS Project and two were supported through the core NSF/REU program. The students were mentored by WftS Co-PIs (Singletary, Ragajopal, and Pohll). Each student presented their research in posters at the UNR Undergraduate Summer Research Symposium in Aug 2015. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Stakeholder Advisory Group - 2 group meetings and 12 individual meetings with agencies Peer-Review Publications - 3 published Peer-Review Publications - 3 submitted Invited and Professional Presentations - 23 completed Multimedia Presentations - 1 created What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Provide additional hydroclimatic simulation results to stakeholders. This will be done through individual, group, and SAG meetings. Illicit opinions from stakeholders on various management alternative to enhance climate resiliency. Build capacity to simulate stakeholder driven management alternatives into hydrologic, and planning model framework. Finalize groundwater/surface water algorithm into planning model. Investigate climate/hydrologic features that control Lake Tahoe equilibrium stage. Incorporate human decision making to explore willingness to participate in management programs and how participation impacts water supply and drought resiliency. Incorporate grower behavior and diffusion of knowledge regarding water supply and other environmental conditions that impact agriculture. Incorporate human decision making into our representation of feedbacks between water supply and water demand. Simulate various management change options, including reservoir construction, managed aquifer recharge, changes in water operations to increase groundwater use in the upper basin to increase surface water supply in the lower basin, implementation of efficient irrigation technology, and other options to be developed through additional stakeholder meetings. Evaluate benefits of management change options under the drought scenarios. Rank management options in terms of benefits, costs, and sustainability. Present results to stakeholders to evaluate feasibility of implementation and elicit feedback for modifications Develop and conduct SAG workshops 3 and 4 to continue to refine climate scenarios and subsequent hydrologic models to assess and enhance climate resiliency of TCRS. Hire NSF funded Postdoctoral Researcher in Resource Economics to work with project CO-PI Singletary in collaboration with UNR resource economists, Rollins and Taylor, in addition to WFTS team scientists, to develop economic predictive model to test water right holder behavior under climate change scenarios in concert with hydroclimatic models to date. Develop and implement survey instrument for water rights holder survey. Analyze data and present findings to SAG. Continue investigation of the potentiality of replication of the CM research design in other snow-fed arid river systems globally.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Goal 1: Develop stakeholder-informed climate scenarios Developed the first climate-scenario based on stakeholder input provided from 66 organizational surveys and validated by the Stakeholder Affiliate Group (SAG). This first scenario is an extension of current/recent drought in the study area (2012- 2015) and will allow the hydrologic modelers and stakeholders to assess (a) how much worse the current drought can get and how well (or not) the TCRS water system will fare if the current drought gets much worse, (b) what will it take to emerge from an extended version of the current drought, and what will "emerging from this drought" look like in terms of winners and losers in the study area. The scenario was populated with detailed data using historical daily PRISM temperature and precipitation data across the study area. Working with the hydrologic modeling team, it was decided that the temperatures in part of the scenario should be adjusted so the entire scenario would reflect the current warming temperatures that have been a hallmark of the current drought (Scenario 1a) and also projected warming expected by mid-century (Scenario 1b). This version of the first drought scenario was completed on a 4-km grid, at daily resolution, and provided to the hydrologic modelers so that they could simulate the hydrologic impacts of such a drought sequence in the TCRS. Goal 2: Model water supply/demand outcomes resulting from the climate scenarios Developed integration framework for hydrology and operations models for TCRS Developed automated routines to incorporate drought scenarios into Truckee River System hydrologic models and incorporated first drought scenario into hydrologic models Simulated hydrologic drought scenario and its effects on water supply in Truckee River basin Developed hydrologic models for Carson River headwaters, Carson Valley, and middle Carson River basin Developed river network/operations models for Carson Valley agricultural region and incorporated new drought scenario into hydrologic models Simulated hydrologic drought scenario and its effects on water supply in Carson River basin. Simulated possible management scenarios with new coupled hydrology and operations model and evaluated benefits of adding a reservoir and managed aquifer recharge Finalized hydrologic model integration between the Truckee and Carson River Systems Presented simulated results on drought impacts on water supply in Carson River basin to SAG and received feedback from stakeholders regarding drought impacts and options for enhancing drought resilience. Published journal articles on methods of predicting precipitation phase (snow vs rain) in the western United States and globally and coupled hydrology/operations model Met with water managers to develop framework for simulating water use and operations in Carson River basin, including: Attended Middle Carson Water Purveyors meeting, 12/2/2014 Met with Mike Adams from the Truckee Carson Irrigation District, 1/5/2016 Attended Upper Carson Water Purveyors meeting, 1/14/2015 Attended Lahontan Water Board meeting on climate change impacts to Lake Tahoe, 1/15/2015 Meeting with Carson Water Subconservancy District and Federal Water Master, 3/9/2015 Field visit with Charlie Condron, East Fork Federal Water Master deputy, 3/25/2015 Field visit with Steve Wilcox, West Fork Federal Water Master deputy, 6/11/2015 Field visit with Jim Hilton, South Tahoe public Utility District, 8/21/2015 Meeting with Gary Iazzis, Allerman-Virginia Irrigation Company, 10/6/2015 Developed hydrologic models for Carson River headwaters, Carson Valley, and middle Carson River Basin. Developed river network/operations models for Carson Valley agricultural region. Incorporated new drought scenario (drought scenario 1a) into hydrologic models. Simulated hydrologic drought scenario and its effects on water supply in Carson River basin. Distilled simulated results into a series of slides illustrating drought impacts on water supply in Carson River basin and presented to the project's stakeholder engagement group meeting. Received feedback from stakeholders regarding simulated results/presentation for future meetings. Developed integration framework for hydrology and operations models. Simulated hypothetical management scenarios with new coupled hydrology and operations model and evaluated benefits of adding a reservoir and managed aquifer recharge. Submit journal article on new coupled hydrology/operations model. Goal 3 - Develop policy scenarios that respond interactively to the water supply/demand outcomes Develop, implement and document participatory modeling approach to integrate diverse stakeholder equities in physical models of water sustainability and climate adaptation Develop survey instrument, review project plans with all organizations, conduct 66 interviews with organizational entities in the TCRS (e.g., water managers and major influencers on the system) to quantify the impacts of drought from perspective of stakeholders from the headwaters to the terminus of the river basin. Survey questions directly reflected data needed by hydroclimatic modelers to develop stakeholder-informed drought scenarios and response options Frame decision-making criteria through iteration with researchers and stakeholders throughout all phases of the process to ensure stakeholder perspectives are at the forefront of the hydroclimatic model development Develop and implement methodology to analyze organizational survey data to provide quantitative data to climate modeler to develop stakeholder-informed drought scenarios Organize Stakeholder Affiliate Group (SAG) comprised of the 12 major influencers on the system and conduct the first two SAG workshops (Sep 2015 and Mar 2016. Highest priority climate scenarios were identified through collaborative discussion with research team and SAG members. Goal 4 - Assess the transferability of this approach to snow-fed arid lands, globally Document the process required to implement the collaborative modeling research design in other snow-fed arid lands globally, including the use of survey instruments, hydrologic models and level of participation to ensure key issues are addressed Develop a scaled version of the organizational survey instrument, collect data and analyze results from organizations in Mendoza, Argentina and Nanjing, China. Surveys conducted in partnership with colleagues from DRI and UNR with established collaborations with these organizations. Present project and initial results at "Mountains of Our Future" international meeting in Scotland. Present collaborative modeling approach to climate resilience at Global Network of Mountain Observatories (GNOMO), Rocky Mountain Biological Field Station, Gothic, CO. Organized "resilient rivers" session at the EcoSummit 2016 meeting in Montpellier

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Davis, S., D. Kauneckis, N. Kruse, K. Miller, M. Zimmer, G. Dabelko (2016), Closing the loop: Integrative systems management of waste in food, energy, and water systems, Special Issue: FEW Nexus, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 1-14, DOI: 10.1007/s13412-016-0370-0.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Rajagopal S., Harpold A., "Testing and Improving Temperature Thresholds for Snow and Rain Prediction in the Western United States", Journal of the American Water Resources Association, (accepted).
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Behrangi A., Yin X., Ye H., Rajagopal S, "Distinguishing snowfall from rainfall using near surface atmospheric information: comparative assessment and uncertainty analysis", Journal of the American Water Resources Association (submitted).
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kauneckis, D. and J. Terman, (in revision), Innovating from below: why local governments in the United States create climate policies, Regional Environmental Change.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Kauneckis, D.*, McCarthy, M.*, Singletary, L., Simpson, K. a, Sterle, K. a, Dettinger, M., Pohll, G., Rajagopal, S. & Niswonger, R. (2015, August) Water for the Seasons: A Collaborative Approach for Modeling Droughts and Assessing Options to Enhance Resilience. 2015 Western Governors Drought Forum. Stateline, NV.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Simpson, K., Singletary, L., Acharya, K.* (2015, November). Water for the Seasons: Evaluating the Feasibility of Domestic and International Implementation: A Prospective Case Study in Nanjing, China. Faculty Session. Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Simpson, K., Singletary, L.*, & McCarthy, M. (2015, December). Water for the Seasons: Evaluating the Feasibility of Domestic and International Implementation: A Prospective Case Study in Mendoza, Argentina. Faculty/Graduate Student Seminar. National Scientific and Technical Research Council of Argentina (CONICET), El Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de Zonas Aridas (IADIZA), National University of Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: McCarthy, M.*, Pohll, G.*, Niswonger, R.* (2016, March). Water for the Seasons: A Collaborative Approach for Modeling Droughts and Assessing Options to Enhance Resilience. Oral Presentation. National Science Foundation-Water Sustainability and Climate Annual Projects Meeting for Principle Investigators. Washington, DC.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: McCarthy, M.*, Ringler, C.* Garrick, D., Kauneckis, D.* (2016, January). Managing Water Resources at the River Basin Scale. Submitted Abstract and Workshop. 16th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: The Food-Energy-Water Nexus, January 18-21, Washington, DC.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Belton, L.* & McCarthy, M.* (2016, February). Engaging StakeholdersWhat Works, What Doesnt and Why. Submitted Abstract and Workshop. Sagebrush Ecosystem Conservation: All Lands, All Hands. Joint Conference of the Great Basin Consortium and WAFWA-Sponsored Sagebrush Science and Management Meeting. Feb. 23-26, Salt Lake City, UT.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kauneckis, D., Guest Lecturer, Use of Science in Local and Regional Policy Making, for course, ES 300 - People and the Environment, and Climate Policy and Politics, for course, ES 300 - People and the Environment, Ohio University, March 2015-16.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Kauneckis, D.*, Drought: Moving from response to resilience, Special presentation, Western Governors Association Drought Forum, Lake Tahoe, CA, June 23, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Kauneckis, D.*, Lessons learned and new challenges to local government climate adaptions efforts, City of San Francisco Planning Department, June 6, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Kauneckis, D.*, Innovating from below: why local governments in the United States create climate policies, European Cooperation in Science and Technology, Novel Approaches to Climate Governance and the Role of Entrepreneurship, Innovations in Climate Governance (INOGOV), Institute For Environmental Studies, Vu University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands, May 18-19, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Kauneckis, D.*, The landscape of local government adaptation policy , National Adaptation Forum, St. Louis, MO, May 12-14, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Kauneckis, D.* (2015, October). Guidelines for Future Assessments of Sustainable Mountain Development, Mountains of Our Future, Perth, Scotland. Kauneckis, D.* (2015, October). Invited Roundtable Discussant, Future Earth  An agenda for R&D from a mountain perspective, Mountains of Our Future Earth, Perth, Scotland. Kauneckis, D.* (2015, October). A Proposed Design for an International Network of Socio-ecological System Observatories, Mountains of Our Future, Perth, Scotland.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Kauneckis, D.* (2015, September). Mountains in the Anthropocene: Developing long-term observatories for mountain social-ecological systems, Global Network of Mountain Observatories (GNOMO), Rocky Mountain Biological Field Stations, Gothic, CO. Kauneckis, D.* (2015, September). Integrating Decision Sciences in Climate Resilience: The Water for the Season Project, Poster Presentation, Global Network of Mountain Observatories (GNOMO), Rocky Mountain Biological Field Stations, Gothic, CO.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Rajagopal S., and Harpold A., "Variability in snow-rain transitions challenge the fidelity of temperature threshold models for ecohydrologic prediction," Western Snow Conference, 2015, Grass Valley, California.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Rajagopal S., Harpold A., "Predicting Snow-To-Rain Transitions Across The Western U.S.: When Is Daily Air Temperature Sufficient?", AGU: San Francisco, CA, Dec, 2015
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Huntington, J. L., Rajagopal, S., Niswonger, R. G., Gardner, M., Morton, C. G., Reeves, D. M., Pohll, G. M. (2015). "The balancing act of surface-reservoir-groundwater for integrated water resources management", AGU: San Francisco, CA, December 14, 2015-December 18, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kitlasten, W., Niswonger, R., Morway, E., Gardner, M., 2016. Comparison of model calibration results under two water allocation schemes, 2016 USGS National Groundwater Workshop planned for August 29-September 2, Reno, NV
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Morway, E.D., Niswonger, R.G., Triana, E., 2015. Improved simulation of groundwater in river operations simulations: seamless integration of MODSIM and MODFLOW. In Weber, T., McPhee, M.J. and Anderssen, R.S. (eds) MODSIM2015, 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, November 29 - December 4, 2015, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Morway, E.D., Niswonger, R.G., Triana, E., 2015. Toward improved simulation of operations in integrated hydrologic modeling. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14-18, 2015, San Francisco, CA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Niswonger, R., Morway, E., et al., GSFLOW Development for Conjunctive Management of Groundwater/Surface-Water Systems in Agricultural Areas. USGS National Research Program Colloquium Series, March 11, 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Niswonger, R., Morway, E., et al., Models and approaches for simulating groundwater sustainability in conjunctive use agricultural basins. UC Davis Weathering Change conference April 5, 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Niswonger, R. [Invited] Managing Resources for Agriculture using Software for Growers and Regulators. University of Nevada Reno Graduate Program of Hydrologic Sciences Colloquium Series on Nov 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Dettinger, M.D., Large storms, droughts, and the Tahoe environmentPast & future: Tahoe Science Conference, Reno, Sep 2015.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Morway, Eric E., Nisownger Richard, G., Triana, Enrique, (2016), Toward improved Simulation of river operations through integration with a hydrologic model, Env Modeling & Software, 82, 255-274.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Dettinger, M.D., Udall, B., and Georgakakos, A.P., 2015, Western water and climate change: Ecological Applications, 25(8), 2069-2093.


Progress 08/01/14 to 07/31/15

Outputs
Target Audience:One of the main project goals is to solicit input from local stakeholders. In year one this was done primarily through the development of a survey of organizations with water management responsibilities on the Truckee Carson River System (TCRS). The Water for the Seasons (WftS) Team developed drafts of the organizational survey instrument, based on a review of relevant literature combined with iterative Collaborative Modeling (CM) sessions with the Hydroclimatic Team. The primary goal of the iterative CM sessions, internal to the entire project team, was in part to identify key questions to include in the survey in order to better inform early hydroclimatic model development. The Collaborative Modeling & Outreach Team tested the resulting survey in January 2015 with selected stakeholders knowledgeable about the water supply challenges that snow fed arid river systems present, but not currently employed by a TCRS organization and revised the survey in accordance with stakeholder input. The final survey instrument includes 26 questions that: a) identify theorganization's mission on the TCRS; b) assess stakeholder perspectives of TCRS resilience to changes in precipitation, temperature and water supply (seasonality and annually); c) assess attractiveness and implementation feasibility for a range of climate adaptation options; d) identify current information sources used by decision-makers and identify future information needs; and e) assess communication and collaboration among TCRS organizations and identify opportunities for improvement (see the Organizational Survey attached in the Products Section of this report). Questions have been designed to test specific theoretical propositions about resilience in coupled socio-ecological systems, examine the impact of scale on system-level resilience, and provide information for linking water management and right holder decisions as input to the hydrological models being used in this research. The survey instrument designed represents a significant methodological contribution to the study of integrative hydroclimatic systems and the incorporation of organizational behavior into understanding system-level dynamics. Using the final draft of the survey instrument, the Collaborative Modeling & Outreach Team interviewed 14 TCRS organizations with water management responsibilities. Interviews span the range of different management organizations on river system, and include those at the headwaters, various uses along the river system, and at the terminus. This first wave of interviews purposefully targeted a sample of those organizations with significant responsibilities and decision-making influence onthe TCRS, from its headwaters to its terminus, and include: Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) Carson Water Subconservancy District (CWSD) Fernley - City of Fernley Fallon Shoshone Paiute Tribe (FSPT) Northern Nevada Development Authority (NNDA) Nevada State Engineer (StateEng) Truckee Carson Irrigation District (TCID) Truckee Meadows Regional Planning Agency (TMRPA) The Nature Conservancy (TNC) Truckee River Flood Management Authority (TRFMA) Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) US Fish and Wildlife Service - Stillwater Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? A special session of the Nevada Water Rights Class was organized for the Water for the Seasons Team, course was taught by water rights experts and organized the Nevada Water Resources Association, University of Nevada, Reno, Jan 2015. Most team members attended. Hydroclimatic modelers will attend a Python programming class in San Diego, California, Aug 2015. A recent M.Sc. graduate has been hired by subcontractor PWRE to work on linking the TROA Planning model with an existing MODFLOW groundwater model. This new employee has attended RiverWare Training Session 1, University of Colorado, Mar 2015. Existing PWRE staff attended the Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, Reno, NV,Jan 2015 and the RiverWare User Group, Boulder, CO, Mar 2015. Two Water for the Seasons PhD students attended and presented posters at the NSF/WSC Principal Investigators Meeting, Washington, DC, Feb 2015. Four Water for the Seasons Co-PIs and two GRAs will mentor four REU undergraduates during the Summer of 2015. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Dettinger, M.D., 2015, "Droughts, storms and the future of Nevada's water resources: Keynote, Nevada Water Resources Association (NWRA) Annual Conference," Reno, NV, Jan 2015. Huntington, J., S. Rajagopoal, R.G. Niswonger, M. Gardner, C.G. Morton, D.M. Reeves, and G. Pohll, The balancing act of surface-reservoir-groundwater for integrated water resources management, 2015 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, submitted. Kauneckis, D., "Innovating from below: Why local governments in the United States create climate policies," Invited Speaker, European Cooperation in Science and Technology, Novel Approaches to Climate Governance and the Role of Entrepreneurship, Innovations in Climate Governance (INOGOV), Institute For Environmental Studies, Vu University Amsterdam. Amsterdam, Netherlands, May, 2015. Kauneckis, D., "Lessons from local government climate adaptation," City of San Francisco Planning Office, San Francisco, CA, Jun 2015. Kauneckis, D., "Local governments and climate change adaptation: Results from a national survey of climate policies across the United States," Invited Speaker, Voinovich School, Ohio University. Athens, OH, March 2015. McCarthy, M.I., Pohll, G.M., Kauneckis, D., Singletary, L., Dettinger, M.D., "Water for the Seasons: Climate Resiliency in Snow-fed Arid Lands," NWRA Fall Meeting, Reno, NV, Oct 2014 and "Modeling Water Sustainability and Climate Resiliency", NWRA Annual Meeting, Reno, NV, Jan 2015. Morway, E.D., Niswonger, R.G., Triana, E., 2015. Incorporating river operations in MODFLOW. MODFLOW and More 2015, International Groundwater Modeling Center (IGWMC), May 30-June 3, 2015, Golden, CO. Morway, E.D., Niswonger, R.G., Triana, E., 2015. Integrating hydrologic and river operations modeling with explicit simulation of groundwater and surface-water exchange. 5th Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference. April 19-23, 2015, Reno, NV. Nigde, Turkey, May 2015. Kauneckis, D., "Moving from responses to resilience in Western droughts," Invited Speaker, Western Governors Association, Conference on Droughts, Incline Village, NV, Jun 2015. Parashar, R. and D.M. Reeves (2015), Ground water sustainability of aquifers in fractured bedrock, In: Sustainable Water Resources Management, Eds. A. Bardossy, S. Rao, C.S.P. Ojha, and T. Zhang, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), in press. Rajagopal, S., Huntington, J. L., Niswonger, R., Gardner, M. A., Morton, C. G., Reeves, D., Pohll, G. M., "High Resolution Integrated Hydrologic Modeling for Water Resource Management: Tahoe Basin Case Study", presentation at American Geophysical Union Annual Conference, San Francisco, CA, Dec 2014. Simpson, K., "Water for the Seasons: Evaluating the Feasibility of Domestic and International Implementation," poster presented at NSF/WSC PI Meeting, Washington, DC, Feb 2015 and Great Basin Consortium Conference, Boise, ID, Feb 2015. Simpson, K., K. Sterle, L. Singletary, M. McCarthy, D. Kauneckis, M. Dettinger. (2015). Role of Collaborative Modeling and Participatory Research in understanding the challenges that water scarcity in a changing climate: International implications for agriculture and food security. Invited Oral Presentation, International Edible Allicae Conference. Nigde, Turkey. May 21-25, 2015. Simpson, K., K. Sterle, M. McCarthy, G. Pohll, D. Kauneckis, L. Singletary, M. Dettinger, S. Rajagopal, R. Niswonger, J. Huntington, S. Emm. (2015). Water for the Seasons: Evaluating the feasibility of domestic and international implementation. Graduate Student Poster Presentation, Great Basin Conference Consortium: Climate programs, water limitations, and geospaces in the Great Basin. Boise State University, Boise, ID. February 17-18, 2015. Simpson, K., Sterle, K., McCarthy, M.I., Kauneckis, D., Dettinger, M.D., "Role of Collaborative Modeling and Participatory Research in understanding the challenges that water scarcity in a changing climate: International implications for agriculture and food security," Invited Oral Presentation (Singletary presenting), International Edible Allicae Conference. Sterle, K, "Water for the Seasons: Enhancing Resiliency of Snow-fed Arid Land River Systems - A Collaborative Modeling Approach," poster presented at NSF/WSC PI Meeting, Washington, DC, Feb 2015 and Great Basin Consortium Conference, Boise, ID, Feb 2015. Sterle, K., K. Simpson, L. Singletary, M. McCarthy, D. Kauneckis, G. Pohll, M. Dettinger, R. Niswonger, S. Rajagopal, S. Emm. (2015). Enhancing Resiliency of Snow-fed Arid Land River Systems: A Collaborative Modeling Approach. Oral Presentation. 70th Soil and Water Conservation Society Annual International Conference. Greensboro, NC. July 26-29, 2015. Sterle, K., K. Simpson, M. McCarthy, G. Pohll, D. Kauneckis, L. Singletary, M. Dettinger, S. Rajagopal, R. Niswonger, J. Huntington, S. Emm. (2015). Enhancing resiliency of snow-fed arid land river systems: A collaborative modeling approach. Graduate Student Poster Presentation, National Science Foundation-WSC Principle Investigators' Meeting. Washington, DC. February 9-11, 2015. Publications Rajagopal, S., J.L. Huntington, R. Niswonger, G. Pohll, M. Gardner, C. Morton, Y. Zhang, and D.M. Reeves. 2015. Integrated Surface and Groundwater Modeling of Martis Valley, California, for Assessment of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Basin-Scale Water Resources, Desert Research Institute - Division of Hydrologic Sciences Report 41261. A manuscript is currently being prepared for submission to a peer-reviewed journal based on the DRI report listed above. Outreach Activities A website featured on three institutional websites, graduate student research posters and a translational fact sheet, which aim to educate the public about this newly funded research project and explain the role of local stakeholder engagement in the Collaborative Modeling process. These products, which explain the goals of the WftS Project and explore the international replication/implications of the WftS approach for snow-fed arid land river systems, nationally and globally, include: Two presentations developed specifically for international professional conferences that describe the approach and initial findings of the WftS Project: Co-PI Kauneckis will present WftS climate adaptation research at INOGOV (Amsterdam, The Netherlands) in May 2015; and Co-PI Singletary will present WftS collaborative modeling approach and international implications for agriculture and food security in snow-fed arid river systems at ISEA (Nigde, Turkey) also in May 2015. Two graduate student posters presented at two regional and two national professional meetings Water for the Seasons website developed and featured on three institutional websites (Academy for the Environment, Cooperative Extension Living with Drought, and Desert Research Institute) Translational fact sheet (official publication number pending peer review) Science Fact Sheet, Prepared for Western Governors' Association 2015 Meeting. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Project Management Implement data management plan with supporting organizations and transfer climate respositories to local data repository. Develop guidelines and train team members to link both project generated and related research data and models to the WftS Data Management System. Develop plans for publishing data and linking all materials to NSF/USGS data management systems. Expand WftS website with links to outreach materials and publications. Develop and publish (through University of Nevada Cooperative Extension) two project Fact Sheets for dissemination to stakeholder groups and the public. Organize and host first Stakeholder Advisory Group workshop with the WftS Project Team (scheduled for Aug 2015) to review water managers survey results, discuss climate scenarios, and demonstrate integrated hydroclimatic models forTCRS. Recruit and hire Postdoctoral Researcher to develop Agent-Based Models for TCRS Establish partnership with Nevada Center of Excellence for Water to create opportunities for sharing WftS framework and approaches with partner organizations in China, Israel, Nepal/Bhutan, Turkey and others. Identify professional development opportunities for WftS Project Team members and support personnel to present resultsto science community, decision makers, and general public. Research & Collaborative Modeling Activities: The Hydroclimatic Team will continue to finalize the operations and hydrologic models being developed for this project. Once the models are all running and producing reasonable results, we will combine the models to develop historical simulations for calibrating and assessing model skill for reproducing historical hydrologic conditions. Finalize the integration of the hydrologic and operations model for the Truckee and Carson River Basins. This will include all of the Carson River drainage upstream of Lahontan Reservoir and the Little Truckee Basin. Begin incorporation of climate scenarios provided by the climate team for this project. Present initial results at local and national conferences. The Hydroloclimatic Modeling team will continue to coordinate with the Collaborative Modeling & Outreach Team to integrate project components and develop materials for dissemination to stakeholder partners. Develop the link between the TROA Planning Model and the MODFLOW groundwater model. This will involve collaborating closely with DRI researchers to develop a practical yet effective link between the two models that will capture the significant interactions that exist between the surface water flows, and the groundwater system in the Truckee Meadows section of the river. Coupling these models will allow the team to understand and explore with more accuracy the response of the basin to extreme climate conditions and to test potential mitigation responses to these extreme conditions. Review and analyze completed stakeholder surveys and work with other team members and SAG to interpret its results in terms of identification of the most informative climate scenarios to formulate and explore. Design and populate two initial stress-test climate scenarios for simulation and exploration by the hydrological modelers and agent-based modelers including a modified version of the current drought, and a modified version of the drought of the 1930s. These scenarios will be used to explore the impacts of a known historical drought on current water supplies and to discern the contributing roles of climate, changes in land-use, infrastructure implementation, and urban development on water supply-demand in the system. Parameterization of these scenarios will be completed in Year 2 based on interactions with the SAG and modeling teams. Review and centralize the repository of gridded historical precipitation and temperature data sets needed to "populate" (quantify the climatic details of) historically based scenarios. These same data sets will also be used to construct the details of scenarios that arise from either climate-change projections or paleoclimatic considerations. Complete the interview surveys with TCRS water managers (organizational representatives) - estimated 60-70 TCRS organizations with diverse responsibilities and interests from headwaters to terminus of the system. Develop water right holder/agricultural producer survey instrument and initiate/complete survey interviews with 50-75 individuals. Develop and implement data analysis plan for water manager and water right holder-agricultural producer survey data. Create GIS maps of snow-fed arid lands and evaluate climatic conditions, institutional structures, and ecological challenges of snow-fed arid lands. Evaluate the transferability of WftS framework to analogous regions nationally and internationally.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Project Impact This NSF/USDA funded WSC project, which we call "Water for the Seasons," is developing an integrated systems-based approach to modeling climate resiliency in snow-fed arid land river systems. Water for the Seasons (WftS) utilizes the Truckee-Carson River System (TCRS) as a pilot study for understanding how best to link science with decision-making to improve the capacity of organizations and individuals to respond and adapt to changing climatic conditions. It employs an iterative process for broad stakeholder community engagement in the development of integrated groundwater, surface water, and climate models toward understanding stakeholder preferences and adaptation options for improving climate resilience in the system. Our collaborative integrative model of the TCRS will account for changes in precipitation, temperature gradients, evapotranspiration rates from large water bodies and agriculture, and other factors that impact water supply and demand. During the first year of the project we have successfully developed a climate scenario, hydrologic modeling tools, a comprehensive stakeholder survey, and organized the Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG). Initial climate scenarios have been developed with buy in from local stakeholders. The hydrologic models will predict the impact of water supply changes under a changing climate. The stakeholder survey provides context on how water managers interpret drought and its impacts on water supply. The SAG was formed to bring together key stakeholders to aid in the iterative collaborative modeling process. Goal 1: Develop stakeholder-informed climate scenarios Developed collaborative modeling stakeholder survey questions to inform extreme climate scenario development. Questions probed water managers' perceptions of moderate and extreme droughts, moderate and extreme precipitation events, and the impacts of increased temperatures. Preliminary climate scenario developed for review by SAG. Recent results obtained by team member Dettinger for characterizing the drought history and related processes in California were "migrated" to the study area and rest of Nevada. These results were presented at a plenary talk for the Annual Meeting of the Nevada Water Resources Association (January 2015). The same data sources and analyses developed for the California research were applied across Nevada, and in the study area, key recent findings regarding drought processes in California were found to apply in the study area. Most notably, at year to-year and longer time scales, the most important precipitation variations in the Tahoe-Truckee-Carson Region derive almost exclusively (90+%) from variations in the occurrence/frequency of very-large storms (i.e., Atmospheric River storms), with little contribution to multi-year precipitation fluctuations arising from the combined contributions from large-to-normal-to-small storms. Goal 2: Model water supply/demand outcomes resulting from the climate scenarios Recalibrated the Fernley groundwater model and incorporated newly mapped faults. This model now simulates a transient calibration period of 1998 - present and predictive simulations are setup to run 100 years into the future. Streamflow and climate forcing data (precipitation, temperature) were updated and the Truckee River hydrologic model now simulates the period from 1980 - 2015. The Martis Creek GSFLOW model was finalized. The Carson River basin team hired a post doctorial researcher and masters level graduate student that began working in March 2015. Thus far, an initial version of hydrologic model of the east and west forks of the Carson River upper watershed have been developed. We have developed the MODSIM operations/planning model of the middle Carson River basin. We have begun modifying the existing hydrologic model of the middle Carson River basin model. Developed the Little Truckee hydrologic model. Model grid has been constructed as well as initial parameterization, and model is currently being calibrated. Acquired the Central Truckee Meadows groundwater model from the Truckee Meadows Water Authority (TMWA). An outside consulting firm developed this model and the WftS modelers were required to learn the model structure and verify the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge and stream/aquifer fluxes along the Truckee River. Developed an algorithm to fully integrate the Truckee River operations model (i.e. River Ware) with the local groundwater models (Central Truckee Meadows and Fernley). Most of the effort this year was placed on developing and calibrating hydrologic models. Although this is an important and necessary task, we do not yet have significant results to report beyond calibration results. Goal 3 - Develop policy scenarios that respond interactively to the water supply/demand outcomes To solicit input from local water managers, the Collaborative & Outreach Team developed, tested and implemented of a survey of organizations with water management responsibilities on the TCRS. From September through December 2014, the Water for the Seasons (WftS) Team developed drafts of the organizational survey instrument, based on a review of relevant literature combined with iterative Collaborative Modeling (CM) sessions with the Hydroclimatic Team. The primary goal of the iterative CM sessions, internal to the entire project team, was in part to identify key questions to include in the survey in order to better inform early hydroclimatic model development. The Collaborative Modeling & Outreach Team tested the resulting survey in January 2015 with selected stakeholders knowledgeable about the water supply challenges that snow fed arid river systems present, but not currently employed by a TCRS organization and revised the survey in accordance with stakeholder input.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Sterle, K., K. Simpson, L. Singletary, M. McCarthy, D. Kauneckis, G. Pohll, M. Dettinger, R. Niswonger, S. Rajagopal, S. Emm. (2015). Enhancing Resiliency of Snow-fed Arid Land River Systems: A Collaborative Modeling Approach. Oral Presentation. 70th Soil and Water Conservation Society Annual International Conference. Greensboro, NC. July 26-29, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Simpson, K., K. Sterle, L. Singletary, M. McCarthy, D. Kauneckis, M. Dettinger. (2015). Role of Collaborative Modeling and Participatory Research in understanding the challenges that water scarcity in a changing climate: International implications for agriculture and food security. Invited Oral Presentation, International Edible Allicae Conference. Nigde, Turkey. May 21-25, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Morway, E.D., Niswonger, R.G., Triana, E., 2015. Incorporating river operations in MODFLOW. MODFLOW and More 2015, International Groundwater Modeling Center (IGWMC), May 30-June 3, 2015, Golden, CO.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Kauneckis, D., "Innovating from below: Why local governments in the United States create climate policies," Invited Speaker, European Cooperation in Science and Technology, Novel Approaches to Climate Governance and the Role of Entrepreneurship, Innovations in Climate Governance (INOGOV), Institute For Environmental Studies, Vu University Amsterdam. Amsterdam, Netherlands, May, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Kauneckis, D., "Lessons from local government climate adaptation," City of San Francisco Planning Office, San Francisco, CA, Jun 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Morway, E.D., Niswonger, R.G., Triana, E., 2015. Integrating hydrologic and river operations modeling with explicit simulation of groundwater and surface-water exchange. 5th Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference. April 19-23, 2015, Reno, NV.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Submitted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Huntington, J., S. Rajagopoal, R.G. Niswonger, M. Gardner, C.G. Morton, D.M. Reeves, and G. Pohll, The balancing act of surface-reservoir-groundwater for integrated water resources management, 2015 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, submitted.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Submitted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Parashar, R. and D.M. Reeves (2015), Ground water sustainability of aquifers in fractured bedrock, In: Sustainable Water Resources Management, Eds. A. Bardossy, S. Rao, C.S.P. Ojha, and T. Zhang, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), in press.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Dettinger, M.D., 2015, "Droughts, storms and the future of Nevadas water resources: Keynote, Nevada Water Resources Association (NWRA) Annual Conference," Reno, NV, Jan 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Kauneckis, D., Local governments and climate change adaptation: Results from a national survey of climate policies across the United States, Invited Speaker, Voinovich School, Ohio University. Athens, OH, March 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: McCarthy, M.I., Pohll, G.M., Kauneckis, D., Singletary, L., Dettinger, M.D., "Water for the Seasons: Climate Resiliency in Snow-fed Arid Lands," NWRA Fall Meeting, Reno, NV, Oct 2014 and Modeling Water Sustainability and Climate Resiliency, NWRA Annual Meeting, Reno, NV, Jan 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Nigde, Turkey, May 2015. Kauneckis, D., "Moving from responses to resilience in Western droughts," Invited Speaker, Western Governors Association, Conference on Droughts, Incline Village, NV, Jun 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Rajagopal, S., Huntington, J. L., Niswonger, R., Gardner, M. A., Morton, C. G., Reeves, D., Pohll, G. M., "High Resolution Integrated Hydrologic Modeling for Water Resource Management: Tahoe Basin Case Study", presentation at American Geophysical Union Annual Conference, San Francisco, CA, Dec 2014.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Simpson, K., K. Sterle, M. McCarthy, G. Pohll, D. Kauneckis, L. Singletary, M. Dettinger, S. Rajagopal, R. Niswonger, J. Huntington, S. Emm. (2015). Water for the Seasons: Evaluating the feasibility of domestic and international implementation. Graduate Student Poster Presentation, Great Basin Conference Consortium: Climate programs, water limitations, and geospaces in the Great Basin. Boise State University, Boise, ID. February 17-18, 2015.