PRORURUL: PROTECTING AGRICULTURAL LAND IN RURAL LANDSCAPES EXPERIENCING URBAN AND LOW-DENSITY RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: COMPLETE
• Funding Source: AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 1025994
• Grant No.: 2021-67023-34481
• Cumulative Award Amt.: $499,965.00
• Proposal No.: 2020-06917
• Project Start Date: Apr 1, 2021
• Project End Date: Mar 31, 2025
• Grant Year: 2021
• Program Code: [A1651]- Agriculture Economics and Rural Communities: Environment

Recipient Organization
BOISE STATE UNIVERSITY
1910 UNIVERSITY DRIVE
BOISE,ID 83725

Performing Department
College of Innovation & Design

Non Technical Summary
The U.S. has an increasing demand for developed land, and agricultural lands are being converted to meet that need. From 2001 to 2016, 11 million acres of American farmland were converted for development, of which 4.4 million occurred on America's highest-productivity agricultural lands, and 6.8 million were converted to low-density development. Balancing housing and food supply is an important societal issue, and the U.S. has implemented a suite of land use policies to balance agricultural production with development needs, but there is limited empirical evidence describing the effectiveness of those policies in reducing farmland conversion or their potential to shift conversion to neighboring locations (i.e. leakage). This project addresses this gap through a multi-scalar investigation of farmland conversion and its relationship to state and federal agricultural retention policies. Building on American Farmland Trust's "Farmlands Under Threat" project, we will develop a comprehensive national database of factors associated with farmland loss (i.e., the ProRurUL database), and we will use spatial econometric and causal identification strategies to evaluate a) the drivers of farmland loss, b) the impact of policies on the rates and patterns of farmland loss, and c) policy leakage across multiple scales and for different agricultural production systems. The database, the methods developed, and the knowledge gained from this research will form a foundation for future research to measure how different policies influence economic outcomes, trade-offs and externalities associated with the expansion of the built environment into rural, agrarian landscapes.

Animal Health Component

100%

Research Effort Categories

Basic

(N/A)

Applied

100%

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
605	6110	3010	100%

Knowledge Area
605 - Natural Resource and Environmental Economics;

Subject Of Investigation
6110 - Economy of the United States and sectors thereof;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;

Keywords

farmland protection policy

impact evaluation

interventions

counterfactual

leakage

Goals / Objectives
From 2001 to 2016, a total of 11 million acres of American farmland was converted for development (Freedgood et al., 2020). Although agricultural lands provide the foundation of national food security and rural economies, they are also generally inexpensive. As such, agricultural lands near growing urban centers (e.g. Columbus, Ohio and Boise, Idaho) are particularly vulnerable to development as population growth drives demand for affordable housing. Similarly, agricultural land in remote areas (e.g. the northern Rockies and southern Appalachians) is being lost to housing growth driven by second-homeowners seeking outdoor amenities. Of the 11 million acres of farmland lost, 6.8 million were converted to low-density development. Further, 4.4 million of the converted acres were in the top-tier of US agricultural productivity (Freedgood et al., 2020). Land use is primarily determined by market forces, i.e., the most efficient use of a given parcel of land dictated by supply and demand (Alonso, 1964; von Thunen, 1826); however, these trends suggest that current development patterns may not represent an efficient solution for balancing food and housing supplies.Land use policy is implemented to mediate market forces and guide land use towards that which reduces negative externalities and maximizes societal benefits. For example, although developing agricultural land may provide maximum short-term profit to the individual landowner, farmland conversion may incur non-immediate and/or non-monetary costs to society, for example, less open space, increased air pollution and traffic, and a decreased long-term ability to provide food for citizens (Irwin and Bockstael, 2004). The U.S. has a suite of policies to reduce the impact of development on farmland, but there is limited empirical evidence about the effectiveness of those policies in reducing farmland conversion, or their potential to shift conversion to neighboring locations (i.e. leakage). Case-studies are the most common analytical approach used to study impacts of land use policy, and are useful to understand policy impacts in a given place. However, different U.S. regions vary in their social-ecological contexts, and face different threats, and the effectiveness of a policy is likely to be a combination of the policy itself and the context in which it is implemented. Research conducted over multiple regions, and at multiple spatial scales, is necessary to identify dominant trends of policy and impact, and to understand how policy impact may differ depending on the social-ecological context. Our project addresses this gap through the development of a nation-wide, comprehensive database of farmland loss (i.e., the ProRurUL database), and rigorous econometric evaluation of the outcomes of a variety of state and federal agricultural retention policies.The overarching goal of this proposal is to inform policies that will minimize externalities and maximize social benefits associated with the expansion of the built environment into rural, agrarian landscapes. Our four specific objectives include:Design and build the ProRurUL database, which will include a comprehensive compilation of drivers of farmland loss, farmland retention policies, and outcomes associated with policy.Quantify the drivers of two types of farmland loss (urban/high density and low-density residential), and measure how drivers vary by region, state, and social-ecological system.Evaluate causality: Measure the effectiveness of farmland protection policy to limit farmland loss, with respect to the threats and context of each jurisdiction.Leakage: Quantify the extent to which farmland protection in one jurisdiction affects development and conservation in nearby jurisdictions with differing land use policy.

Project Methods
Objective 1: Building the ProRurUL databaseIn our first objective, we design and build the ProRurUL database, a nationwide county-level dataset of outcomes, policy treatments, and covariates associated with farmland protection policy. The foundation of the ProRurUL database will be AFT FUT (described in Section 2.4 of this proposal), which includes nation-wide datasets of agricultural lands ranked by their productivity, versatility, and resilience (PVR), agricultural land loss from 2001-2016, and Policy Scorecards, i.e. quantitative scores for each state's policy efforts to protect farmland. We will also use AFT's nationwide database of agricultural easements, the Protected Agricultural Lands Database, which is the most comprehensive database of agricultural easements that exists, and includes the location and date of establishment of 6.4 million of acres in easements. We will compile and/or develop several additional datasets to form the comprehensive ProRurUL dataset which will include a) outcomes (dependent variables), b) treatments (policies), and c) covariates (theoretical drivers of farmland loss) (Table 1). For the outcomes and the covariates, we will compile nationwide datasets from various sources, including the US Census, USDA Census of Agriculture, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA Cropland Data Layer (with corrections, sensu (Lark et al., 2017)), economic-based projections of future land use in 2050 (Radeloff et al., 2012), Zillow Real Estate Database (ZTRAX), NLCD (National Land Cover Datasets), and Urban Influence Codes and Natural Amenities Scale from the USDA Economic Research Service. These data will be used to establish a fully-nuanced understanding of the drivers of farmland loss in different regions, states, and social-ecological contexts across the U.S (Objective 2 of this proposal).Objective 2: What are the drivers of the two different types of farmland loss (UHD and LDR), and how do those vary by region, state, and agricultural system?AFT's FUT analysis has demonstrated fascinating differences in the geographical patterns of farmland loss, including a) urban and high-density (UHD), and b) low-density residential (LDR) conversion. Here, we use an econometric modeling approach to quantify the drivers of both of these types of farmland loss, and we measure how these relationships may change depending on the farmlands' social-ecological context.Objective 3: Evaluating causation: Do state-level policies affect farmland loss, and does policy effectiveness vary with respect to the threats and context of the region? The FUT report contains descriptive statistics to identify associations between policy scores and farmland loss. For example, FUT reports that states with low land-use planning scores lost on average 5 times more farmland per new resident from 2001 to 2016, compared to states with high planning scores. In addition, they identified "outlier" states, i.e., states that had high population growth but relatively little farmland loss, and those outlier states had high policy scores. For example, Washington was 7th in population growth but 31st in urban conversion, and Oregon was 15th in population growth and 34th in urban conversion. In this objective, we evaluate the causal links between farmland protection policies and farmland loss. We will conduct a formal policy impact analysis that quantifies what types of policies are most effective in terms of protecting farmland from development, and include in the analytical design what we learned from Objective 2, in terms of that different regions have experienced different types of conversion (UHD and LDR) and are facing different threats (i.e. development, weak farm viability, and aging population).Objective 4: Leakage, Spillover, and Displacement of Farmland loss: Is farmland loss in one jurisdiction displaced to jurisdictions with weaker land use policy? In the US, much of agricultural land use policy is implemented locally. Many states create a framework (or don't) and then the local jurisdictions decide how to (or decide not to) implement the policies. For example, land use policy in Oregon stipulates zones around each city, beyond which development is not allowed. However, every city implements this differently, and furthermore, counties adjacent to the city can implement their own land use plans. Therefore, although county and state-level activities/aims are nested, there is typically variation across jurisdictions within a state. Furthermore, coordination across jurisdictions is frequently lacking. For example, agricultural easements are implemented at the parcel level at the discretion of a landowner, and frequently without coordination with adjacent landowners. Another example is that in conservative states that lack overall state land use planning strategies, cities may enact strict planning but adjacent jurisdictions do not. For example, Boise, Idaho and Bozeman, Montana are liberal enclaves that implement planning and zoning despite the lack of state policy.We hypothesize that the lack of uniformity and coordination across jurisdictions may lead to unintended spillovers (Towe et al., 2017) i.e. processes by which land use changes or direct interventions (e.g. policy, program, new technologies) in one place have impacts on land use in another place (Meyfroidt et al., 2020). In particular, displacement of land use from a place occurs when there is a migration of activities to another place, therefore causing land change in the other locality. Leakage is a form of spillover which is caused by an environmental policy (e.g., a conservation or restoration intervention), which displaces land use to a region with less-strict policy, and the spillover reduces the overall benefits and effectiveness of the intervention (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011). We will test for leakage associated with agricultural easements and zoning policy by integrating theory and methods from the fields of economics and land use science (Hertel, 2018).

Progress 04/01/21 to 03/31/25

Outputs
Target Audience:PI Brandt is active in the local and national farmland protection community, via her past 8 years of work on farmland protection funded by other USDA and NSF grants. She has conducted a wide variety of efforts to engage diverse stakeholders. A detailed list for activities in the last year is provided in "Other Products", and general types of efforts included: Invited speaker and panel presentations at workshops and planning events. In-person meetings and conference calls with other actors actively engaged in issues we are working on (e.g. drought decision-support, farmland protection) Press releases for local TV and print news outlets. Active member and advisory role to local management efforts Tabling at a local open-air festival focused on agricultural appreciation. Formal classroom instruction with undergraduates. Experiential learning opportunities for undergraduate student researchers. Development of a web presence on the Boise State system We have had engagement with the following non-academic organizations. Representatives of agricultural industry Idaho Center for Sustainable Agriculture Eastern Idaho Seed Growers Association Idaho Department of Agriculture NRCS Ada Soil & Water Conservation District Crookham Seed Company Eastern Idaho Seed Growers Association Idaho Farm Bureau Individual farmers and ranchers Idaho Soil and Water Conservation Commission Managers at the Rock Creek Ranch Researchers at Nancy Cummings Research, Extension, and Education Center University of Wyoming Extension Teton Water Users Association Hagaenbarth Management Madison Valley Ranchlands Group Martinell Ranches Beyeler Ranches Non-profits Palouse Land Trust Sun Valley Institute The Nature Conservancy Land Trust of the Treasure Valley Northwest Center for Alternatives to Pesticides American Farmland Trust Treasure Valley Food Coalition Idaho Coalition of Land Trusts Heart of the Rockies Initiative Friends of the Teton River Henry's Fork Foundation Big Hole Watershed Committee The Nature Conservancy Centennial Valley Association Yellowstone to Yukon Initiative Montana Watershed Coordination Council Lolo Watershed group Big Hole Watershed Committee Beaverhead Watershed Committee Big Hole Watershed Committee HoloScene Wildlife Services LLC Future West Center for Large Landscape Conservation Big Sky Watershed Corps, One Montana Centennial Valley Association Lemhi Regional Land Trust Salmon Valley Stewardship Governmental Organizations Idaho Fish and Game Montana Department of Natural Resources Bureau of Land Management US Forest Service Madison Conservation District Salmon-Challis National Forest Idaho Soil and Water Conservation Commission Payette Soil & Water Conservation District General Public - Press releases and interviews Local TV news Local newspapers Table at a regional "Treasure our Valley" festival about agriculture in Idaho Idaho Humanities Council Boise State Public Radio House Alliance and Community Partnerships City and County Planners Boise City Idaho Historic Preservation Consultant Idaho Smart Growth Ada County Canyon County Canyon County Development Services Compass: Community Planning Association of Southwest Idaho Adams County Nez Perce County Owyhee County Community Development Payette County Planning and Zoning Teton County Faculty researchers and students The project integrates 4 faculty researchers from 3 disciplines, and policy experts from the non-profit community. It provides training for 1 postdoctoral researcher and unergraduate reseach technicians. Changes/Problems:Overall, our project was one year behind because of an initial 1-year delay in project initiation, due to the timing of the arrival of grant funds and the cycle of recruitment for postdoctoral researchers in the Economics field. We have achieved all of our project objectives at the end of the project. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?We provided mentorship and training for one postdoctoral researcher. The post-doc received training in the form of one-on-one work with mentors (including faculty researchers and stakeholders). The postdoc also participated in several professional development activities, including community workshops, discussion panels, and other events focused on farmland protection and land use policy. The post-doc now has a permanent position for an environmental consulting company. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?So far, we have disseminated results to our stakeholder partners at American Farmland Trust, and completed journal publications and presentations at scientific meetings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1: Building the ProRuRUL database In our first objective, we designed and built the ProRurUL database, a nationwide county-level dataset of outcomes, policy treatments, and covariates associated with farmland protection policy. Major activities: a) Built our ProRuRUL database, b) used our database to conduct several analyses, c) wrote 3 peer-reviewed articles, and d) continued engagement with AFT's research and policy teams, and the Pacific Northwest regional team Data collected: We compiled existing datasets into a clearly documented GitHub portal that anyone can access and use. Summary statistics and discussion of results: Our database was the foundation of our analyses on farmland protection. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines. Objective 2: What are the drivers of the two different types of farmland loss (UHD and LDR), and how do those vary by region, state, and agricultural system? Here, we use an econometric modeling approach to quantify the drivers of a) urban and high-density (UHD), and b) low-density residential (LDR) conversion, and we measure how these relationships may change depending on the farmlands' social-ecological context. Major activities completed: Published manuscript Data collected: ProRuRUL database. Summary statistics and discussion of results: Our analysis found that the COVID pandemic shifted development pressures to LDR areas of low risk. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines. Objective 3: Evaluating causation: Do state-level policies affect farmland loss, and does policy effectiveness vary with respect to the threats and context of the region? We will conduct a formal policy impact analysis that quantifies what types of policies are most effective in terms of protecting farmland from development, and include in the analytical design what we learned from Objective 2, in terms of that different regions have experienced different types of conversion (UHD and LDR) and are facing different threats (i.e. development, weak farm viability, and aging population). Major activities completed: a) completed analysis and writing; b) submitted manuscript. Data collected: ProRuRUL database. Summary statistics and discussion of results: PACE programs implemented at the state level protect higher quality agricultural land than those implemented at the local or land trust level, and that agricultural land comes at less cost. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines. Objective 4: Leakage, Spillover, and Displacement of Farmland loss: Is farmland loss in one jurisdiction displaced to jurisdictions with weaker land use policy? We will test for leakage associated with agricultural easements and zoning policy by integrating theory and methods from the fields of economics and land use science. Leakage is a form of spillover which is caused by an environmental policy (e.g., a conservation or restoration intervention), which displaces land use to a region with less-strict policy, and the spillover reduces the overall benefits and effectiveness of the intervention Major activities completed: a) completed analysis and writing; b) submitted manuscript. Data collected: ProRuRUL database. Summary statistics and discussion of results: We found evidence of trade-offs between the quantity and quality of protected land regarding the effectiveness of the PACE program in maintaining agriculturally viable landscapes. Decentralized states had the best outcomes in that they protected lands with higher quality, development risk, and contiguity compared to centralized and collaborative programs. However, these lands had the highest cost and resulted in the lowest proportion of the state's agricultural land base under protection. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines.

Publications

• Type: Other Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2025 Citation: Johnson, K., L. Parton, J. Paudel, M. Williamson, T. Nogiere-McRae, and J. Brandt. In review. Picking up the PACE: a multi-state empirical analysis of payments for agricultural conservation easement (PACE) program performance. Environmental Research Communications.
• Type: Other Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2025 Citation: Johnson, K., L. Parton, J. Paudel, M. Williamson, T. Nogiere-McRae, and J. Brandt. Effectiveness of Land Conservation Programs: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design. The Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2025 Citation: Presentation at the Saving America's Working Lands Conference. Johnson et al. "Moving to the Country: Understanding the effects of Covid-19 on property values and farmland development risk"; Date: April 24, 2026; Location: Dallas, TX

Progress 04/01/23 to 03/31/24

Outputs
Target Audience:PI Brandt is active in the local and national farmland protection community, via her past 8 years of work on farmland protection funded by other USDA and NSF grants. She has conducted a wide variety of efforts to engage diverse stakeholders. A detailed list for activities in the last year is provided in "Other Products", and general types of efforts included: Invited speaker and panel presentations at workshops and planning events. In-person meetings and conference calls with other actors actively engaged in issues we are working on (e.g. drought decision-support, farmland protection) Press releases for local TV and print news outlets. Active member and advisory role to local management efforts Tabling at a local open-air festival focused on agricultural appreciation. Formal classroom instruction with undergraduates. Experiential learning opportunities for undergraduate student researchers. Development of a web presence on the Boise State system We have had engagement with the following non-academic organizations. Representatives of agricultural industry Idaho Center for Sustainable Agriculture Eastern Idaho Seed Growers Association Idaho Department of Agriculture NRCS Ada Soil & Water Conservation District Crookham Seed Company Eastern Idaho Seed Growers Association Idaho Farm Bureau Individual farmers and ranchers Idaho Soil and Water Conservation Commission Managers at the Rock Creek Ranch Researchers at Nancy Cummings Research, Extension, and Education Center University of Wyoming Extension Teton Water Users Association Hagaenbarth Management Madison Valley Ranchlands Group Martinell Ranches Beyeler Ranches Non-profits Palouse Land Trust Sun Valley Institute The Nature Conservancy Land Trust of the Treasure Valley Northwest Center for Alternatives to Pesticides American Farmland Trust Treasure Valley Food Coalition Idaho Coalition of Land Trusts Heart of the Rockies Initiative Friends of the Teton River Henry's Fork Foundation Big Hole Watershed Committee The Nature Conservancy Centennial Valley Association Yellowstone to Yukon Initiative Montana Watershed Coordination Council Lolo Watershed group Big Hole Watershed Committee Beaverhead Watershed Committee Big Hole Watershed Committee HoloScene Wildlife Services LLC Future West Center for Large Landscape Conservation Big Sky Watershed Corps, One Montana Centennial Valley Association Lemhi Regional Land Trust Salmon Valley Stewardship Governmental Organizations Idaho Fish and Game Montana Department of Natural Resources Bureau of Land Management US Forest Service Madison Conservation District Salmon-Challis National Forest Idaho Soil and Water Conservation Commission Payette Soil & Water Conservation District General Public - Press releases and interviews Local TV news Local newspapers Table at a regional "Treasure our Valley" festival about agriculture in Idaho Idaho Humanities Council Boise State Public Radio House Alliance and Community Partnerships City and County Planners Boise City Idaho Historic Preservation Consultant Idaho Smart Growth Ada County Canyon County Canyon County Development Services Compass: Community Planning Association of Southwest Idaho Adams County Nez Perce County Owyhee County Community Development Payette County Planning and Zoning Teton County Faculty researchers and students The project integrates 4 faculty researchers from 3 disciplines, and policy experts from the non-profit community. It provides training for 1 postdoctoral researcher and unergraduate reseach technicians. Changes/Problems:Overall, our project is approximately one year behind because of an initial 1-year delay in project initiation, due to the timing of the arrival of grant funds and the cycle of recruitment for postdoctoral researchers in the Economics field. We have recently been awarded a 1-year no-cost extension which allows one additional year. Our post-doc start on July 5, 2022, and since we have been fully staffed, we have made excellent progress on our objectives. We do not anticipate challenges with our original research plan. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?We are providing mentorship and training for one postdoctoral researcher. The post-doc receives training in the form of one-on-one work with mentors (including faculty researchers and stakeholders). The postdoc also participates in several professional development activities, including community workshops, discussion panels, and other events focused on farmland protection and land use policy. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?So far, we have disseminated results to our stakeholder partners at American Farmland Trust, and completed journal publications and presentations at scientific meetings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We are well positioned to achieve our benchmarks for all objectives. In particular, Objectives 1 and 2 are completed. For Objective 3, we have submitted one manuscript and have preliminary results for another, and for Objective 4, we will be begin designing the leakage analysis.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Activities and accomplishments for each specific project objective: Here we detail activities associated with each objective. Objective 1: Building the ProRuRUL database In our first objective, we design and build the ProRurUL database, a nationwide county-level dataset of outcomes, policy treatments, and covariates associated with farmland protection policy. Major activities: a) Built our Stage 1 ProRuRUL database, b) used our Stage 1 database to complete our first analysis, c) developed Stage 2 database, d) submitted one article and started analysis for a third article using the Stage 2 database, and e) continued engagement with AFT's research and policy teams, along with new engagement with the Pacific Northwest regional team Data collected: None. We are using existing datasets for this analysis. Summary statistics and discussion of results: Our Stage 1 and Stage 2 databases are the foundation of our analyses and future analyses on farmland protection. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines. Objective 2: What are the drivers of the two different types of farmland loss (UHD and LDR), and how do those vary by region, state, and agricultural system? Here, we use an econometric modeling approach to quantify the drivers of a) urban and high-density (UHD), and b) low-density residential (LDR) conversion, and we measure how these relationships may change depending on the farmlands' social-ecological context. Major activities completed: Published manuscript Data collected: Using ProRuRUL database Stage 1. Summary statistics and discussion of results: Our analysis found that the COVID pandemic shifted development pressures to LDR areas of low risk. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines. Objective 3: Evaluating causation: Do state-level policies affect farmland loss, and does policy effectiveness vary with respect to the threats and context of the region? We will conduct a formal policy impact analysis that quantifies what types of policies are most effective in terms of protecting farmland from development, and include in the analytical design what we learned from Objective 2, in terms of that different regions have experienced different types of conversion (UHD and LDR) and are facing different threats (i.e. development, weak farm viability, and aging population). Major activities completed: a) Built Stage 2 database, b) submitted Manuscript 2, c) completed preliminary analysis for manuscript 3. Data collected: ProRuRUL database Stage 2. Summary statistics and discussion of results: Preliminary analysis indicates that PACE programs implemented at the state level protect higher quality agricultural land than those implemented at the local or land trust level. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines. Objective 4: Leakage, Spillover, and Displacement of Farmland loss: Is farmland loss in one jurisdiction displaced to jurisdictions with weaker land use policy? We will test for leakage associated with agricultural easements and zoning policy by integrating theory and methods from the fields of economics and land use science. Leakage is a form of spillover which is caused by an environmental policy (e.g., a conservation or restoration intervention), which displaces land use to a region with less-strict policy, and the spillover reduces the overall benefits and effectiveness of the intervention Major activities completed: a) We have not initiated this analysis yet, but the progress made on the preceding objectives lay the foundation for this research in Year 4 of the grant. Data collected: ProRuRUL Stage 2 database Summary statistics and discussion of results: None. The research has not yet been conducted. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2024 Citation: Johnson, et al. Picking up the PACE: an empirical analysis of conservation outcomes in the presence of payments for agricultural conservation easement (PACE) programs. In review at Landscape and Urban Planning
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2024 Citation: Johnson, K.K., Paudel, J., Parton, L.C., Theresa, N.-M., Williamson, M.A., Brandt, J.S., 2024. Is publicly funded private land conservation effective? A case-study of PACE programs in the U.S. Presented at the Western Economics Assoc Intl Annual Conference, Seattle, WA.

Progress 04/01/22 to 03/31/23

Outputs
Target Audience:PI Brandt is active in the local and national farmland protection community, via her past 7 years of work on farmland protection funded by other USDA and NSF grants. She has conducted a wide variety of efforts to engage diverse stakeholders. A detailed list for activities in the last year is provided in "Other Products", and general types of efforts included: · Invited speaker and panel presentations at workshops and planning events. · In-person meetings and conference calls with other actors actively engaged in issues we are working on (e.g. drought decision-support, farmland protection) · Press releases for local TV and print news outlets. · Active member and advisory role to local management efforts · Tabling at a local open-air festival focused on agricultural appreciation. · Formal classroom instruction with undergraduates. · Experiential learning opportunities for undergraduate student researchers. · Development of a web presence on the Boise State system We have had engagement with the following non-academic organizations. Representatives of agricultural industry Idaho Center for Sustainable Agriculture Eastern Idaho Seed Growers Association Idaho Department of Agriculture NRCS Ada Soil & Water Conservation District Crookham Seed Company Eastern Idaho Seed Growers Association Idaho Farm Bureau Individual farmers and ranchers Idaho Soil and Water Conservation Commission Managers at the Rock Creek Ranch Researchers at Nancy Cummings Research, Extension, and Education Center University of Wyoming Extension Teton Water Users Association Hagaenbarth Management Madison Valley Ranchlands Group Martinell Ranches Beyeler Ranches Non-profits Palouse Land Trust Sun Valley Institute The Nature Conservancy Land Trust of the Treasure Valley Northwest Center for Alternatives to Pesticides American Farmland Trust Treasure Valley Food Coalition Idaho Coalition of Land Trusts Heart of the Rockies Initiative Friends of the Teton River Henry's Fork Foundation Big Hole Watershed Committee The Nature Conservancy Centennial Valley Association Yellowstone to Yukon Initiative Montana Watershed Coordination Council Lolo Watershed group Big Hole Watershed Committee Beaverhead Watershed Committee Big Hole Watershed Committee HoloScene Wildlife Services LLC Future West Center for Large Landscape Conservation Big Sky Watershed Corps, One Montana Centennial Valley Association Lemhi Regional Land Trust Salmon Valley Stewardship Governmental Organizations Idaho Fish and Game Montana Department of Natural Resources Bureau of Land Management US Forest Service Madison Conservation District Salmon-Challis National Forest Idaho Soil and Water Conservation Commission Payette Soil & Water Conservation District General Public - Press releases and interviews Local TV news Local newspapers Table at a regional "Treasure our Valley" festival about agriculture in Idaho Idaho Humanities Council Boise State Public Radio House Alliance and Community Partnerships City and County Planners Boise City Idaho Historic Preservation Consultant Idaho Smart Growth Ada County Canyon County Canyon County Development Services Compass: Community Planning Association of Southwest Idaho Adams County Nez Perce County Owyhee County Community Development Payette County Planning and Zoning Teton County Faculty researchers and students The project integrates 4 faculty researchers from 3 disciplines, and policy experts from the non-profit community. It provides training for 1 postdoctoral researcher and unergraduate reseach technicians. Changes/Problems:Overall, our project is approximately one year behind because of an initial 1-year delay in project initiation, due to the timing of the arrival of grant funds and the cycle of recruitment for postdoctoral researchers in the Economics field. Our post-doc start on July 5, 2022, and since we have been fully staffed, we have made excellent progress on our objectives. We do not anticipate challenges with our original research plan. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?We are providing mentorship and training for one postdoctoral researcher. The post-doc receives training in the form of one-on-one work with mentors (including faculty researchers and stakeholders). The postdoc also participates in several professional development activities, including community workshops, discussion panels, and other events focused on farmland protection and land use policy. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?So far, we have disseminated results to our stakeholder partners at American Farmland Trust. Upon publication of our first manuscript, we plan to write policy brief and public interest articles. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We are well positioned to achieve our Year 2 benchmarks for all objectives. In particular, for Objective 1, we will continue engaging with our stakeholders continue refining our ProRuRUL database. For Objective 2, we will finish revisions and publish our first manuscript. For Objective 3, we will finish the causal analysis and submit two additional manuscripts, and for Objective 4, we will be begin designing the leakage analysis.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Statement of impact Problem statement: The U.S. has an increasing demand for developed land, and agricultural lands are being converted to meet that need. From 2001 to 2016, 11 million acres of American farmland were converted for development, of which 4.4 million occurred on America's highest-productivity agricultural lands, and 6.8 million were converted to low-density development. Balancing housing and food supply is an important societal issue, and the U.S. has implemented a suite of land use policies to balance agricultural production with development needs, but there is limited empirical evidence describing the effectiveness of those policies in reducing farmland conversion or their potential to shift conversion to neighboring locations (i.e. leakage). Project goal: This project addresses this gap through a multi-scalar investigation of farmland conversion and its relationship to state and federal agricultural retention policies. Building on American Farmland Trust's "Farmlands Under Threat" project, we will develop a comprehensive national database of factors associated with farmland loss (i.e., the ProRurUL database), and we will use spatial econometric and causal identification strategies to evaluate a) the drivers of farmland loss, b) the impact of policies on the rates and patterns of farmland loss, and c) policy leakage across multiple scales and for different agricultural production systems. The database, the methods developed, and the knowledge gained from this research will form a foundation for future research to measure how different policies influence economic outcomes, trade-offs and externalities associated with the expansion of the built environment into rural, agrarian landscapes. Main accomplishment this year: Our main accomplishment this year was to initiate high-impact research about farmland protection in the U.S. In the second year of our grant, we have a) hosted our project initiation workshop with members of our interdisciplinary, cross-sectoral team, b) built Stage 1 of our ProRuRUL database, c) completed our initial analysis for publication and initatied two additional analyses, and d) participated in a wide variety of stakeholder activities, including workshops and one-on-one conversations with non-profits, government officials and the agricultural industry. Our research is done in collaboration with policy experts and advocates, and thus will lead to changes in knowledge about, and action towards, farmland protection. This shift in knowledge and action will generate changes in the condition of farmland protection. In the bigger picture, our relationships with diverse stakeholders across the societal and political spectrum are of critical importance, because they bridge a growing political and social divide between urban and rural communities, and ensure that science is embedded within the policy process. Furthermore, the knowledge we create about agriculture, ecosystem services, and policy options will be used in decision-making. Activities and accomplishments for each specific project objective: Here we detail activities associated with each objective. Objective 1: Building the ProRurUL database In our first objective, we design and build the ProRurUL database, a nationwide county-level dataset of outcomes, policy treatments, and covariates associated with farmland protection policy. Major activities: a) Built our Stage 1 ProRuRUL database, b) used our Stage 1 database to complete our first analysis, c) developed Stage 2 database, and d) continued engagement with AFT's research and policy teams, along with new engagement with the Pacific Northwest regional team Data collected: None. We are using existing datasets for this analysis. Summary statistics and discussion of results: Our Stage 1 and Stage 2 databases are the foundation of our analyses and future analyses on farmland protection. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines. Objective 2: What are the drivers of the two different types of farmland loss (UHD and LDR), and how do those vary by region, state, and agricultural system? Here, we use an econometric modeling approach to quantify the drivers of a) urban and high-density (UHD), and b) low-density residential (LDR) conversion, and we measure how these relationships may change depending on the farmlands' social-ecological context. Major activities completed: a) conducted analysis, b) wrote manuscript, c) submitted manuscript to journal for publication, and d) currently working on second round of revisions. Data collected: Using ProRuRUL database Stage 1. Summary statistics and discussion of results: Our analysis found that the COVID pandemic shifted development pressures to LDR areas of low risk. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines. Objective 3: Evaluating causation: Do state-level policies affect farmland loss, and does policy effectiveness vary with respect to the threats and context of the region? We will conduct a formal policy impact analysis that quantifies what types of policies are most effective in terms of protecting farmland from development, and include in the analytical design what we learned from Objective 2, in terms of that different regions have experienced different types of conversion (UHD and LDR) and are facing different threats (i.e. development, weak farm viability, and aging population). Major activities completed: a) Built Stage 2 database, b) conducted preliminary analysis for Manuscript 2, c) currently in planning stages for manuscript 3. Data collected: ProRuRUL database Stage 2. Summary statistics and discussion of results: Preliminary analysis indicates that PACE programs implemented at the state level protect higher quality agricultural land than those implemented at the local or land trust level. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines. Objective 4: Leakage, Spillover, and Displacement of Farmland loss: Is farmland loss in one jurisdiction displaced to jurisdictions with weaker land use policy? We will test for leakage associated with agricultural easements and zoning policy by integrating theory and methods from the fields of economics and land use science. Leakage is a form of spillover which is caused by an environmental policy (e.g., a conservation or restoration intervention), which displaces land use to a region with less-strict policy, and the spillover reduces the overall benefits and effectiveness of the intervention Major activities completed: a) We have not initiated this analysis yet, but the progress made on the preceding objectives lay the foundation for this research in Years 3 and 4 of the grant. Data collected: ProRuRUL Stage 2 database Summary statistics and discussion of results: None. The research has not yet been conducted. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2023 Citation: Johnson, Kelsey K, Lee Parton, Christoph Nolte, Matt Williamson, Theresa Nogeire-McRae, Jayash Paudel, and Jodi Brandt. 2023. Moving to the Country: Understanding the Effects of Covid-19 on Property Values and Farmland Development Risk. In Review. Journal of Housing Economics
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: Johnson, Kelsey K, Lee Parton, Christoph Nolte, Matt Williamson, Theresa Nogeire-McRae, Jayash Paudel, and Jodi Brandt. 2023, March 19-23. Moving to the Country: Understanding the Effects of Covid-19 on Property Values and Farmland Development Risk [Conference Presentation]. International Association of Landscape Ecology Annual Conference. Riverside, CA
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2023 Citation: USDA W-5133 Annual Conference: Economic Valuation and Management of Natural Resources on Public and Private Lands New Orleans, LA

Progress 04/01/21 to 03/31/22

Outputs
Target Audience:PI Brandt is active in the local and national farmland protection community, via her past 6 years of work on farmland protection funded by other USDA and NSF grants. She has conducted a wide variety of efforts to engage diverse stakeholders. A detailed list for activities in the last year is provided in "Other Products", and general types of efforts included: Invited speaker and panel presentations at workshops and planning events. In-person meetings and conference calls with other actors actively engaged in issues we are working on (e.g. drought decision-support, farmland protection) Press releases for local TV and print news outlets. Active member and advisory role to local management efforts Tabling at a local open-air festival focused on agricultural appreciation. Formal classroom instruction with undergraduates. Experiential learning opportunities for undergraduate student researchers. Development of a web presence on the Boise State system We have had engagement with the following non-academic organizations. Representatives of agricultural industry Idaho Center for Sustainable Agriculture Eastern Idaho Seed Growers Association Idaho Department of Agriculture NRCS Ada Soil & Water Conservation District Crookham Seed Company Eastern Idaho Seed Growers Association Idaho Farm Bureau Individual farmers and ranchers Idaho Soil and Water Conservation Commission Managers at the Rock Creek Ranch Researchers at Nancy Cummings Research, Extension, and Education Center University of Wyoming Extension Teton Water Users Association Hagaenbarth Management Madison Valley Ranchlands Group Martinell Ranches Beyeler Ranches Non-profits Palouse Land Trust Sun Valley Institute The Nature Conservancy Land Trust of the Treasure Valley Northwest Center for Alternatives to Pesticides American Farmland Trust Treasure Valley Food Coalition Idaho Coalition of Land Trusts Heart of the Rockies Initiative Friends of the Teton River Henry's Fork Foundation Big Hole Watershed Committee The Nature Conservancy Centennial Valley Association Yellowstone to Yukon Initiative Montana Watershed Coordination Council Lolo Watershed group Big Hole Watershed Committee Beaverhead Watershed Committee Big Hole Watershed Committee HoloScene Wildlife Services LLC Future West Center for Large Landscape Conservation Big Sky Watershed Corps, One Montana Centennial Valley Association Lemhi Regional Land Trust Salmon Valley Stewardship Governmental Organizations Idaho Fish and Game Montana Department of Natural Resources Bureau of Land Management US Forest Service Madison Conservation District Salmon-Challis National Forest Idaho Soil and Water Conservation Commission Payette Soil & Water Conservation District General Public - Press releases and interviews Local TV news Local newspapers Table at a regional "Treasure our Valley" festival about agriculture in Idaho Idaho Humanities Council Boise State Public Radio House Alliance and Community Partnerships City and County Planners Boise City Idaho Historic Preservation Consultant Idaho Smart Growth Ada County Canyon County Canyon County Development Services Compass: Community Planning Association of Southwest Idaho Adams County Nez Perce County Owyhee County Community Development Payette County Planning and Zoning Teton County Faculty researchers and students The project integrates 4 faculty researchers from 3 disciplines, and policy experts from the non-profit community. It provides training for 1 postdoctoral researcher and unergraduate and MS level reseach technicians. Changes/Problems:Overall, our project is approximately one year behind because of the timing of the arrival of grant funds and the cycle of recruitment for postdoctoral researchers in the Economics field. Economics PhD students enter the job market every year in the Fall, and offers are made and accepted by Spring of their graduation year. However, our grant funds did not arrive to Boise State until April 2021. Thus, when we did our initiation recruitment for the position in April 2021, we did not receive qualified applicants. We tried a another (summer 2021) recruitment effort, with the same result. In our third attempt, we adhered to the traditional schedule, starting in Fall 2021 and interviewing candidates in winter 2022, and were successful in recruiting a top qualified candidate, who will start on July 5, 2022. Now that we are fully staffed, we do not anticipate challenges with our original research plan. One complication may arise from the ongoing COVID restrictions on in-person meetings. However, thus far our project team has been able to communicate effectively with in-person and virtual communication strategies. Should the COVID situation persist, we would be excited to speak with the program manager overseeing our grant to discuss our course of action. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?We will be providing mentorship and training for one postdoctoral researcher and several undergraduate and MS student researchers. The post-doc and student will receive training in the form of one-on-one work with mentors (including faculty researchers and stakeholders). The postdoc will also participate in several professional development activities, including community workshops, discussion panels, and other events focused on farmland protection and land use policy. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?So far, we have not disseminated results from this specific project, because the research is still in its early stages. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We are well positioned to achieve our Year 1 benchmarks for all objectives. In particular, for Objective 1, we will hold our project initiation workshop and build the ProRuRUL database. For Objective 2, we will complete the drivers analysis and prepare a manuscript for publication. For Objective 3, we will initiate the causal analysis, and for Objective 4, we will be begin designing the leakage analysis.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Main accomplishment this year: Our main accomplishment this year was to build a cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral coalition of scientists and stakeholders to support research towards farmland protection in the U.S. In the first year of our grant, we have a) galvanized our research team and initiated our project plan, b) successfully recruited a postdoctoral researcher who will lead the research, and c) participated in a wide variety of stakeholder activities, including workshops and one-on-one conversations with non-profits, government officials and the agricultural industry. Our research is done in collaboration with policy experts and advocates, and thus will lead to changes in knowledge about, and action towards, farmland protection. This shift in knowledge and action will generate changes in the condition of farmland protection. In the bigger picture, our relationships with diverse stakeholders across the societal and political spectrum are of critical importance, because they bridge a growing political and social divide between urban and rural communities, and ensure that science is embedded within the policy process. Furthermore, the knowledge we create about agriculture, ecosystem services, and policy options will be used in decision-making. Activities and accomplishments for each specific project objective: Here we detail activities associated with each objective. Objective 1: Builidng the ProRurUL database. In our first objective, we design and build the ProRurUL database, a nationwide county-level dataset of outcomes, policy treatments, and covariates associated with farmland protection policy. Major activities: a) We hired a postdoctoral researcher, b) we have compiled and gained experience with two key datasets not included in the proposal (LCMAP, and annual land cover change dataset, and IrrMapper, a westwide dataset of irrigated lands). Data collected: None. We are using existing datasets for this analysis. Summary statistics and discussion of results: None. The research is still in its early stages. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines. Objective 2: What are the drivers of the two different types of farmland loss (UHD and LDR), and how do those vary by region, state, and agricultural system? Here, we use an econometric modeling approach to quantify the drivers of a) urban and high-density (UHD), and b) low-density residential (LDR) conversion, and we measure how these relationships may change depending on the farmlands' social-ecological context. Major activities completed: a) We hired a postdoctoral researcher, b) we have compiled and gained experience with two key datasets not included in the proposal (LCMAP, and annual land cover change dataset, and IrrMapper, a westwide dataset of irrigated lands). Data collected: None. We are using existing datasets for this analysis. Summary statistics and discussion of results: None. The research is still in its early stages. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines. Objective 3: Evaluating causation: Do state-level policies affect farmland loss, and does policy effectiveness vary with respect to the threats and context of the region? We will conduct a formal policy impact analysis that quantifies what types of policies are most effective in terms of protecting farmland from development, and include in the analytical design what we learned from Objective 2, in terms of that different regions have experienced different types of conversion (UHD and LDR) and are facing different threats (i.e. development, weak farm viability, and aging population). Major activities completed: a) We hired a postdoctoral researcher, b) we have compiled and gained experience with two key datasets not included in the proposal (LCMAP, and annual land cover change dataset, and IrrMapper, a westwide dataset of irrigated lands). Data collected: None. We are using existing datasets for this analysis. Summary statistics and discussion of results: None. The research is still in its early stages. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines. Objective 4: Leakage, Spillover, and Displacement of Farmland loss: Is farmland loss in one jurisdiction displaced to jurisdictions with weaker land use policy? We will test for leakage associated with agricultural easements and zoning policy by integrating theory and methods from the fields of economics and land use science. Leakage is a form of spillover which is caused by an environmental policy (e.g., a conservation or restoration intervention), which displaces land use to a region with less-strict policy, and the spillover reduces the overall benefits and effectiveness of the intervention Major activities completed: a) We hired a postdoctoral researcher, b) we have compiled and gained experience with two key datasets not included in the proposal (LCMAP, and annual land cover change dataset, and IrrMapper, a westwide dataset of irrigated lands). Data collected: None. We are using existing datasets for this analysis. Summary statistics and discussion of results: None. The research is still in its early stages. Key outcomes or other accomplishments: Changes in knowledge gained by the research team, and greater communication and collaboration across faculty researchers from multiple disciplines.

Publications