Source: OKLAHOMA STATE UNIVERSITY submitted to
EFFECTS OF MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON PRODUCTIVITY AND VALUE FOR DIFFERENT MIXES OF TIMBER, CATTLE GRAZING, AND WILDLIFE
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
TERMINATED
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1014763
Grant No.
2018-67014-27504
Project No.
OKL03073
Proposal No.
2017-06177
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
A1102
Project Start Date
Feb 1, 2018
Project End Date
Jan 31, 2023
Grant Year
2018
Project Director
Will, R.
Recipient Organization
OKLAHOMA STATE UNIVERSITY
(N/A)
STILLWATER,OK 74078
Performing Department
NREM
Non Technical Summary
The forest-grassland ecotone in the southcentral US is the tension zone between two major biomes and provides a number of important benefits including timber, forage for livestock, and wildlife habitat for game and non-game species. Active management of these systems using prescribed fire, forest thinning/harvesting, grazing, and herbicides can optimize desired benefits for landowners with a variety of management objectives. However, periodic severe droughts that plague this area and increasing climate variability will profoundly affect the productivity, resilience, and stability of ecosystems along this forest-grassland tension zone. Understanding how drought and climate variability affect the productivity and economic value of various ecosystem types within the ecotone is key to sustainably manage this region for multiple objectives both now and in the future.Our ultimate goal of this project is to facilitate sustainable management of the forest-grassland ecotone for different combinations of objectives such as timber, grazing, and wildlife habitat based on recent conditions and to adapt management to mitigate the negative effects of future drought and potential climate change. Our overall objectives are to 1) determine how annual variation in weather (1986-2017), that includes temperature and precipitation extremes, and prescribed fire return interval affect the productivity of components of different ecosystems ranging from closed-canopy forest to savanna/grassland and 2) determine associated economic benefits gained from different mixes of management under recent climatic conditions and future climate scenarios. We hypothesize 1) drought and higher than normal temperatures reduce tree growth more than herbaceous plant growth, 2) drought and higher than normal temperatures reduce growth of denser forests more so than less dense forests, 3) high intensity prescribed fire has a net negative effect on tree growth and positive effect on herbaceous plant growth, 4) Years with drought and above average temperature will cause a greater decrease in economic return for timber objectives than for cattle grazing or wildlife forage, 5) Extrapolating the climate to hotter and drier conditions will result in grazing and wildlife objectives increasing in economic value relative to timber objectives. While previous studies mainly determined the effects of weather and climate on grasslands or forests separately, this project will systematically measure effects across a continuum of ecosystems with different levels of herbaceous and tree dominance. This is critical for sustainable management along the forest-grassland ecotone where a mosaic of different ecosystems exist and where management can readily shift ecosystem type.We are uniquely suited to address these objectives. The PDs are involved with measuring and maintaining, and have access to historical data from a research installation in southeastern Oklahoma that has been continuously treated and monitored since 1983. Treatments include various levels of tree harvesting and thinning as well as fire exclusion and prescribed fire at one, two, three, and four years return intervals. The result is a range of ecosystem types that include mature pine-oak forest, even-aged pine-oak forest, uneven-aged pine-oak forest, open woodland, and savanna. Each of these different ecosystem types presents different management opportunities for timber, grazing, and wildlife. Annual data of understory vegetation growth by functional group (grass, forb, woody, legume, sedge) dating back to 1986 were collected archived and available for the research team to use. Annual growth for woody trees over the same time period will be analyzed using dendrochronological techniques. The climate data are available from Daymet (Thornton et al., 2017) and the treatment period included several major drought events.To facilitate meeting landowner objectives and optimizing economic return, the commodity value for timber and cattle grazing as well as the nonmarket-based value of deer forage for different ecosystem types and the associated effects of drought, climate variability, and prescribed fire will be determined. The annual variation in timber benefits will be determined by incorporating the empirically determined effects of fire and climate variability on tree productivity into growth and yield models for stands of different compositions and densities. Grazing benefits will be quantified by calculating the annual carrying capacity for cattle based on annual grass productivity. Because wildlife habitat is a benefit not readily traded in marketplace, nonmarket-based stated preference methods will be used to quantify the value of deer. Then, the value of deer forage provided by the different ecosystems will be calculated based on percent of annual understory production that is preferred by deer. The component values, i.e., timber, cattle grazing, deer forage, will be determined as will the cumulative economic value provided by the different ecosystem types under a range of drought, management, and climate scenarios.Collectively, these results can be used to systematically analyze how prescribed fire and climate affect different ecosystem types, the productivity of their various components, and the associated economic benefits. By providing information on the financial tradeoffs that different ecosystem types present for various objectives and the effects of climate and management, our results will enable landowners to more profitably and sustainably manage their lands in the face of future droughts and uncertain climate along the forest-grassland ecotone. These efforts will improve the lives of people within Oklahoma and throughout the central forest-grassland transition zone and, therefore, contribute to the core land-grant mission of Oklahoma State University.
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1310613301030%
1230613107025%
1210799107025%
1320420107020%
Goals / Objectives
Our ultimate goal is to provide information to better manage lands for various uses such as timber, cattle grazing, and wildlife habitat based on current conditions and to adapt future management to mitigate the negative effects of drought and potential climate change.Objective A: Determine how annual variation in weather (1986-2017) affected the aboveground productivity of components for different ecosystems ranging from closed-canopy forest to open savanna.Objective B: Determine how different fire return intervals maintained over the past 33 years affect the productivity of components of different ecosystems ranging from closed-canopy forest to open savanna.Objective C: Determine the effects of annual variation in weather and drought on economic value of different mixes of ecosystem services related to timber, cattle grazing, and deer forage for different ecosystem types ranging from closed-canopy forest to open savanna.
Project Methods
The research installation represents a unique platform that has been continuously treated and monitored for 34 years. The Pushmataha Forest Habitat Research Area (PFHRA) is located on the Pushmataha Wildlife Management Area (managed by Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation) near Clayton, OK. The research was initiated in 1982 with the purpose of evaluating forestry and range management practices on wildlife habitat. The initial condition was a closed-canopy forest, approximately 80-years-old, composed mainly of Pinus echinata (shortleaf pine) (55% of overstory basal area), Quercus stellata (post oak), and Carya tomentosa (mockernut hickory). The understory is mainly composed of tallgrass prairie species, e.g., Andropogon gerardii, Schizachyrium scoparium, different species of Panicum spp., Carex spp., and Scleria spp.In 1983, 28 (0.8 to 1.6 ha) adjacent units were established in a randomized experimental design. This study has seven cultural treatments with three replications. The treatments consist of different combination of harvesting P. echinata sawtimber (H), thinning of hardwoods (T), and fire return interval (1-4 years as well as no fire). Fire return intervals (dormant season burns) have been maintained 1985 through current. The different treatments resulted in conditions ranging from closed-canopy forests of different stages of development and age structure to open savanna.We will determine the effects of climate variability and prescribed fire return interval on the productivity of the understory and overstory vegetation. Weather data will be obtained from the Daymet data base.We will collect basal area, tree height, and tree diameter data from a minimum of 10 plots per unit during 2018 and 2020. Tree growth data will be determined by taking cores from each unit (10 to 40 trees per unit depending on tree density) to include both shortleaf pine and post oak. Trees of different social position, i.e., dominant, codominant, intermediate, and suppressed will be taken from forested units. Cores will be analyzed using standard dendrochronological techniques.Aboveground ANPP of understory vegetation (separated into grass, forb, legume, sedge, and woody) has been collected since 1986 (1986-1990, 1993-2001, 2003, 2005-2008, 2010-2016) by annual clip plots taken towards the end of the growing season (Sept-Oct). All vegetation within a 0.25 m2 quadrat is clipped and separated by functional group from ten locations within each unit. Samples are dried at 60 oC and weighed. Forage availability for cattle will be determined by grass ANPP. We will continue these measurements throughout the research period (2018-2021).Deer forage will be assessed in each unit. Previous browse studies have determined species preference by deer based on use of current annual growth. The abundance of desired forage will be determined and the ratio of preferred forage to total understory ANPP will be calculated. Data on the nutritional value and deer preference for herbaceous and woody understory plants at the study site is available from local, published reports. The ratio of preferred forage will be determined annually for three years (2018-2020) in each unit using ten 2 x 4 m plots. From this, the total amount of preferred forage will be determined and carrying capacity of deer determined. We will determine how constant the ratio of preferred to total forage is by comparing the three consecutive years (2018-2020). We will adjust the ratio as necessary if factors such as time since fire are an influence.Typically, there is little competition between cattle and deer for forage as cows prefer grass and deer prefer forbs and woody plants. While a simplification, we will use this assumption to develop estimates of deer forage and cattle grazing potential that are independent of one another.Valuation of timber: The value of timber on an annual basis is a function of volume production and it price. Growth and yield models are used to estimate timber volume. Since timber revenues are received on a periodic basis, compounded values of all costs and revenues are estimated in terms of Net Present Value (NPV) and then subsequently annualized.Tree diameter and height data collected from Control, HT, HT4, HT3, HT2, and HT1, will be entered into Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a US Forest Service program that projects tree growth and stand dynamics (Dixon 2003). The FVS southern variant with the location code 80909 (represents study region) will be used for growth and yield projection of all stands. Financial formulas will be used for estimation of timber value on an annual basis.The valuation of cattle forage: The grass ANPP values will be used to calculate carrying capacity for cows for each year and ecosystem type. We will assume the daily forage intake for a cow is 10.5 kg and that the annual intake for cows on native grasses is 25% of the end-of-season standing crop. The fair market value of the cows will be calculated from recent auction prices and multiplied by the carrying capacity to calculate the value of cattle forage production on an annual basis.The valuation of wildlife: Unlike timber and cattle, wildlife provide ecosystem benefits that cannot be bought or sold in marketplace. Deer are the most important game species based both on number hunters and hunter expenditures. Valuation of wildlife benefits, e.g., deer hunting, needs to be done by eliciting people's willingness to pay (WTP). This procedure involves asking deer hunters how much extra they are willing to pay to receive an increase in deer harvest opportunities.A choice experiment is a suitable approach for such valuation. We will design and conduct a hunter survey after review of available literature, consultation with the university researchers, approval by University Intuitional Review Board for research with human subjects, and pilot testing with stakeholders in the region. Data from the choice experiment analysis for valuation of deer will appropriately coded. The choice data set will be analyzed using a mixed logit based regression model. The regression coefficients from mixed logit model will be utilized to estimate the needed WTP values on an annual basis.The understory ANPP of each species that is preferred deer forage will be multiplied by species-specific nutritional quality and then scaled to the ha basis and summed. Carrying capacity using the goal of 'optimum deer herd health and numbers' will be developed by dividing total nutritional value of forage by the annual requirements of deer. Carrying capacity will be multiplied by the WTP for deer to calculate the non-market based economic value of deer forage.

Progress 02/01/18 to 01/31/23

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audiences are 1) land managers who are interested in the effects of manipulating vegetation type timber yield, grazing forage, and wildlife habitat 2) scientists who are working in the field of forestry, range, and wildlife 3) students who are learning about forestry, range, and wildlife. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?One Ph.D. finished their dissertation. Students in NREM 3224 (Silviculture) had a lecture about the research and the study site. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?We published one peer-referred manuscript and submitted three more. We gave one webinar and one field tour to natural resource managers and the general public. We gave a conference presentation at a scientific meeting. We gave two invited talks to natural resource professionals. Details on these outputs are above. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?This is a final report. We anticipate that the three submitted manuscripts will be published in 2023.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? This past year was a no-cost extension. This allowed us to complete all remaining tasks and objectives. Some specifics are: Collected herbaceous ANPP data and finalized data set Completed analysis of surveys One manuscript was published, and three additional submitted Completed economic analysis Gave four outreach talks/field trips Ph.D. student completed and defended dissertation Over the course of the project, we completed all objectives. Key outcomes from this reporting period The culmination of our work was an economic assessment of the management of different mixes of timber, cattle grazing, and wildlife under climate variability. This integrates results of herbaceous productivity related to management and climate variability, tree productivity related to management and climate variability, and willingness to pay for deer habitat. Economic returns and the obstacles to adopting active management in the forest-grassland transition ecoregion in south-central USA Forest-grassland ecotones are a mosaic of grassland, savanna, and upland forest. As such, landowners can choose to manage their lands for multiple objectives. We estimated the economic returns from managing forest and rangeland in southeastern Oklahoma to produce different combinations of timber, cattle forage, and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) browse for a 40-year period. We further conducted a survey to understand landowner perceptions of obstacles to adopting active management that involve timber harvest and prescribed fire. The highest net return was obtained from the treatment with harvested timber and burned every four years (uneven-aged woodland/forest) because it had the greatest gross return from a combination of timber (46%), cattle forage (42%), and deer browse (11%). The return from this treatment was greater than that of managing for timber only (closed-canopy forest) or prioritizing cattle and deer (savanna). Survey results suggested that landowners were aware of the benefits of active management but that the majority (66%) considered cost as a major obstacle in the management of their forest or rangeland. Women forestland owners and older landowners considered cost an obstacle. Our findings advocate integrated timber, cattle, and deer management as the best economic strategy within the forest-grassland ecotone and for targeted outreach and landowner education related to the benefits of active management.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2022 Citation: Mishra B., Will, R.E., Joshi, O. 2022. Peer Pressure, Self-Efficacy, Outcome Expectancy and Moral Values Predict Intentions for Active Management of Ecosystems in Oklahoma. Southern Rural Sociological Association (SRSA) Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA, Feb 13-Feb, 14, 2022.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Adhikari, A., H. Adams, R. Masters, and R.E. Will. 2022. Radial growth responses of post oak (Quercus stellata) to climate variability and management in southeastern Oklahoma, USA. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 52:209-219.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2022 Citation: Mishra, B., O. Joshi, B.P. Chapagain, L.H. Lambert, and R.E. Will. (In review) Intentions of Landowners Towards Active Management for White-tailed Deer Hunting in the Forest-Grassland Transitional Ecoregion of the South-Central USA. Forest Policy and Economics.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2022 Citation: McKinney, C.M., Masters, R.E., Adhikari, A., Mishra, B., Joshi, O., Zou, C.B., and Will, R.E. submitted. (In review) Forage quantity and protein concentration changes across a forest-savanna gradient with management implications for white-tailed deer. Forest Ecology and Management.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2022 Citation: Mishra, B., Joshi, O., Masters, R., McKinney, C., Adhikari, A., Zou, C., Will, R.E. (In review) Economic returns and the perceived obstacles to adopting active management in the forest-grassland transition ecoregion in south-central USA. Journal of Environmental Management.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Mishra, Bijesh (PhD). Economics and Human Dimension of Active Management of Forest-Grassland Ecotone in South-Central USA Under Changing Climate. Oklahoma State University, Stillwater OK.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2023 Citation: Will, R.E. (Invited talk) Effects of climate variability and management on tree and understory growth across a forest-savanna continuum in a long-term experiment in southeastern Oklahoma. Southern Group of State Foresters  Forest Health Meeting. Oklahoma City, OK, 31 January 2023.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2022 Citation: Will, R.E. (Invited talk) Radial growth response of shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and post oak (Quercus stellata) to climatic variability and management in southeastern Oklahoma. Ouachita Society of American Foresters Annual Meeting. Pocolo, OK, 10 November 2022.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Will, R., Adhikari, A., Masters, R., Adams, H., Joshi, O., Zou, C. Radial growth response of shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and post oak (Quercus stellata) to climatic variability and management in southeastern Oklahoma. (pp 14-15). In Willis, John L.; Self, Andrew B.; Siegert, Courtney M., eds. 2022. Proceedings of the 21st Biennial Southern Silvicultural Research Conference. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-268. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 262 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/SRS-GTR-268.


Progress 02/01/21 to 01/31/22

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audiences are 1) land managers who are interested in the effects of manipulating vegetation type timber yield, grazing forage, and wildlife habitat 2) scientists who are working in the field of forestry, range, and wildlife 3) students who are learning about forestry, range, and wildlife. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?One Ph.D. student currently working on the project this year Students in NREM 3224 (Silviculture) had a lecture about the research and the study site. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Discussed research and findings in NREM 3224 (Silviculture) with 20 undergraduate students. (Yes) Results were presented at three different meetings that ranged from regional to international. McKinney, C., Masters, R., Adhikari, A., Joshi, O, Will, R. Effects of forest structure and prescribed fire on quantity and quality of deer forage. Annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America. Virtual. August 2-6, 2021. Will, R.E., Adhikari, A., Joshi, O., Zou, C., Masters, R., and Adams, H. Effects climate variability, stand density, and prescribed fire on the relative growth response of shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and post oak (Quercus stellata) in southeastern Oklahoma. Annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America. Virtual. August 2-6, 2021. Mishra, B., Will, R.E., and Joshi, O. 2021. Attitudes and intentions of landowners towards active management for deer hunting in the forest-grassland transitional ecoregion of the south-central USA. Annual Meeting of the International Society of Forest Resource Economics. Virtual. May 18-19, 2021. Will, R., Adhikari, A., Masters, R., Adams, H., Joshi, O., Zou, C. 2021. Radial growth response of shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and post oak (Quercus stellata) to climatic variability and management in southeastern Oklahoma. 21st Biennial Southern Silviculture Research Conference. Virtual. March 16-17, 2021. McKinney, C., Masters, R., Adhikari, A., Joshi, O, Will, R. Changes in crude protein concentration of understory plants in response to prescribed fire and thinning. 21st Biennial Southern Silviculture Research Conference. Virtual. March 16-17, 2021. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We plan to finish the analyses and submit two to three additional manuscripts.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We accomplished the majority of our stated objectives for year four of this four-year project. We were granted a No Cost Extension. Specifically, we accomplished the following related to our objectives for Year 3 outlined in our project timetable: Collected herbaceous ANPP data Collected stand-level tree data Completed analysis of deer forage data Completed survey and analysis Two manuscripts were published and another was published Feb 2022 (these cover objectives A and B) Economic analysis completed and manuscript being prepared (Objective C) Extension talks given

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Adhikari, A., R. Masters, H. Adams, K. Mainali, C.B. Zou, O. Joshi, and R.E. Will. 2021. Effects of climate variability and management on shortleaf pine radial growth across a forest-savanna continuum in a 34-year experiment. Forest Ecology and Management. 491: 119125 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119125
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Adhikari, A., R. Masters, C.B. Zou, K. Mainali, O. Joshi, and R.E. Will. 2021. Management and climate variability effects on understory productivity of forest and savanna ecosystems in Oklahoma, USA. Ecosphere. 126(6) e03576. 10.1002/ecs2.3576
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2022 Citation: Adhikari, A., H. Adams, R. Masters, and R.E. Will. 2022. Radial growth responses of post oak (Quercus stellata) to climate variability and management in southeastern Oklahoma, USA. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 52:209-219.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: McKinney, C., Masters, R., Adhikari, A., Joshi, O, Will, R. Effects of forest structure and prescribed fire on quantity and quality of deer forage. Annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America. Virtual. August 2-6, 2021.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Will, R.E., Adhikari, A., Joshi, O., Zou, C., Masters, R., and Adams, H. Effects climate variability, stand density, and prescribed fire on relative growth response of shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and post oak (Quercus stellata) in southeastern Oklahoma. Annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America. Virtual. August 2-6, 2021.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Mishra, B., Will, R.E., and Joshi, O. 2021. Attitudes and intentions of landowners towards active management for deer hunting in the forest-grassland transitional ecoregion of the south-central USA. Annual Meeting of the International Society of Forest Resource Economics. Virtual. May 18-19, 2021.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Will, R., Adhikari, A., Masters, R., Adams, H., Joshi, O., Zou, C. 2021. Radial growth response of shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and post oak (Quercus stellata) to climatic variability and management in southeastern Oklahoma. 21st Biennial Southern Silviculture Research Conference. Virtual. March 16-17, 2021.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: McKinney, C., Masters, R., Adhikari, A., Joshi, O, Will, R. Changes in crude protein concentration of understory plants in response to prescribed fire and thinning. 21st Biennial Southern Silviculture Research Conference. Virtual. March 16-17, 2021.


Progress 02/01/20 to 01/31/21

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audiences are 1) land managers who are interested in the effects of manipulating vegetation type timber yield, grazing forage, and wildlife habitat 2) scientists who are working in the field of forestry, range, and wildlife 3) students who are learning about forestry, range, and wildlife. Changes/Problems:Overall, things are on target. Covid reduced the presentations and field tours due to travel restrictions. Hopefully, we can make up for the lost time in the second half of 2021. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?There are one MS student and one Ph.D. student currently working on the project. There was one Post Doc who worked on the project Students in NREM 3224 (Silviculture) had a lecture about the research and the study site. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?We participated in three outreach events involving the research project. One for students and two for natural resource professionals and landowners: Discussed research and findings in NREM 3224 (Silviculture) 20 undergraduate students. Will, R.E. Management to Improve the Understory of Forests, Woodlands, and Savannas for Wildlife. 5th Annual Convention Oklahoma Quail Forever. Oklahoma City, OK, 29 February 2020 (30 people) Wildlife Conservation Field Day: Growing More Wildlife in the Northeast Region. Cherokee WMA, 1 February 2020 (110 people) Results were presented at two different meetings that ranged from regional to national. Adhikari, A., Masters, R. Joshi, O, Zou, C., Adams, H., Will, R. Effects of climate variation and management on shortleaf pine tree ring growth. National Society of American Foresters Annual Convention. Oct. 29-31, 2020. (Yes) Mishra, B., Joshi, O., Will, R. Understanding climate change resiliency of south-central transitional ecotone in US. National Society of American Foresters Annual Convention. Oct. 29-31, 2020. (Yes) McKinney, C., Masters, R., Adhikari, A., Zou, C., Joshi, O., and Will, R. Does long term application of different intervals of prescribed fire on crude protein content of deer forage. Oklahoma Natural Resources Conference, Norman, OK February 10-12, 2020. (Yes) Mishra, B., Joshi, O., Will, R. Understanding climate change resiliency of Oklahoma forests using FVS and conjoint analysis. Oklahoma Natural Resources Conference, Norman, OK February 10-12, 2020. (Yes) Two manuscripts were submitted to peer-refereed journals in 2020 and accepted for publication (in press currently). We plan to submit at least two more manuscripts in 2021. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the fourth year of this project, we will continue to collect herbaceous ANPP data. Analyses related to the survey and evaluation of ecosystem services will continue. Analyses related to deer forage will continue Manuscripts will be submitted. We will look for additional opportunities to disseminate information. We will have field tours depending on the Covid situation. The economic analysis will continue.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We accomplished our stated objectives for year three of this four-year project. Specifically, we accomplished the following related to our objectives for Year 3 outlined in our project timetable: Collected herbaceous ANPP data Collected stand-level tree data Completed analysis of tree cores Completed analysis of weather effects on understory ANPP Analysis of survey ongoing Completed collections of for deer forage, analysis ongoing Three manuscripts submitted Economic analysis ongoing Extension talks given Some specifics related to accomplishments Gathered and collated weather data: A database for daily weather from 1980 to present was constructed from Daymet. We cross-checked these data using local measurement when available. The data set was updated. Collection of herbaceous ANPP measurements: We collected 280 clip plots and separated them into grass, sedge, legume, forb, litter, and woody. Samples were weighed and added to the database. Analysis of over 270 tree cores is complete and the relative radial response has been correlated to climate variability and management. Two Extension talks were given based on the outcomes of this research. Analysis of weather effects on herbaceous ANPP was modified and completed. The collection of deer forage was completed. Data collection related to the economics component of the research was completed. Over 2500 surveys were administered and 508 responses were received. Key Outcomes for the Reporting Period Management and climate variability effects on understory productivity of forest and savanna ecosystems in Oklahoma, USA The productivity of herbaceous and understory woody vegetation is critical for wildlife habitat, livestock forage, and biodiversity, and is influenced by both annual weather patterns and tree dominance. With the goals to inform management and understand climate change implications, we determined the effects of tree harvest, prescribed fire, and 31 years of climate variability on understory aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) for ecosystems ranging from mature forest to grassland in a long-term study in southeastern Oklahoma, USA. In 1984, starting with a mature forest dominated by Pinus echinata and Quercus stellata, replicated experimental units were created by various combinations of pine harvest, hardwood thinning, and subsequent fire return intervals (1 to 4 years and none). Understory ANPP (forbs, grasses, and woody plants) was measured by clip plots at the end of each growing season. Stepwise regression models were developed between ANPP and tree basal area, litter accumulation, fire return interval, and monthly, seasonal, and annual weather variables. Understory ANPP was dominated by grasses and ranged from 27 g m-2 y-1 for the mature forest to 374 g m-2 y-1 for an annually burned grassland/savanna. In general, herbaceous ANPP was inversely related to tree dominance (basal area) and litter accumulation, and positively related to June precipitation and early and late growing season temperatures. Understory woody ANPP was influenced by tree basal area, positively influenced by precipitation, and negatively influenced by summer soil moisture deficits. Our results indicate that prescribed fire, through its negative influence on tree basal area and litter accumulation is critical to maintaining highly productive understories and that a three-year return interval is a threshold to stall redevelopment of the forest. For herbaceous ANPP, the timing of precipitation, especially mid growing season, appears more important than total precipitation, and higher temperatures within the range our site experienced did not have a large negative effect. In contrast understory woody ANPP was negatively influenced by drought indicating climate change may have variable effects on different functional groups. Effects of climate variability and management on shortleaf pine radial growth across a forest-savanna continuum in a 34-year experiment We investigated the radial growth response of shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) to climatic variation and management using tree cores collected in southeastern Oklahoma at the drier, western limit of its range. Beginning in 1984, experimental units were created by various combinations of pine harvest, hardwood thinning, and fire return intervals (1, 2, 3, 4 years, and none) that produced ecosystems ranging from mature, closed-canopy forest to open savanna. Monthly and seasonal weather for previous- and current-year as well as growing seasons since fire was used to determine the relationship between radial growth and climate variability (1987 - 2018) for different management regimes. Across all treatments, growing season precipitation (~5% decrease per 100 mm decrease in precipitation), average summer temperature maximum (~7% decrease with 1 °C increase), and previous year's average October minimum temperature (~6% increase per 1 °C increase) were the variables most frequently correlated with variation in ring width. Annual wood and latewood growth increments were correlated (R2 = 0.60) and generally responded similarly to climate variability, with latewood more sensitive to late growing season conditions. Management with frequent fire that resulted in savanna ecosystems reduced growth sensitivity to annual variation in precipitation relative to trees in a closed-canopy forest condition. Suppressed trees were also less responsive to climate variability than intermediate or co-dominant trees. Both annual wood and latewood growth were reduced by 21-33% the first year after prescribed fire for treatments with a 2- and 3-year fire return interval. Multiple regression combing temperature and precipitation variables as well as time since fire accounted for 55% of the variability in annual ring growth.Our findings indicate that a drier climate with hotter summers will likely reduce the growth of shortleaf pine growing at the western margin of its range while warmer temperatures in October, by extending the growing season, may help ameliorate the effects of warmer summers. Management to reduce stand density, either through thinning or by prescribed fire, may dampen some of the variations of growth in response to climate variability.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: Adhikari, A., Masters, R. Joshi, O, Zou, C., Adams, H., Will, R. Effects of climate variation and management on shortleaf pine tree ring growth. National Society of American Foresters Annual Convention. Oct. 29-31, 2020.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: Mishra, B., Joshi, O., Will, R. Understanding climate change resiliency of south-central transitional ecotone in US. National Society of American Foresters Annual Convention. Oct. 29-31, 2020
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: McKinney, C., Masters, R., Adhikari, A., Zou, C., Joshi, O., and Will, R. Does long term application of different intervals of prescribed fire on crude protein content of deer forage. Oklahoma Natural Resources Conference, Norman, OK February 10-12, 2020.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2020 Citation: Mishra, B., Joshi, O., Will, R. Understanding climate change resiliency of Oklahoma forests using FVS and conjoint analysis. Oklahoma Natural Resources Conference, Norman, OK February 10-12, 2020.


Progress 02/01/19 to 01/31/20

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audiences are 1) land managers who are interested in the effects of manipulating vegetation type timber yield, grazing forage, and wildlife habitat 2) scientists who are working in the field of forestry, range, and wildlife 3) students who are learning about forestry, range, and wildlife. Changes/Problems:Overall, things are on target. Even though we got a slow start on deer habitat evaluation during Year 1, we got things rolling in Year 2 and will complete the tasks by the end of the grant period. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?There are one MS student and one Ph.D. student currently working on the project. There is one Post Doc working on the project Students in NREM 3101 (Forest Resources Field Studies) visited the site for a day and learned about the research. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?We had three outreach events at the study site:one for students and two for natural resource professionals and landowners (see educational aids in "Other Products"). Results were presented at six different meetings that ranged from regional to national (see conference presentations in "Products"). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the third year of this project, we will continue to collect herbaceous ANPP data, finish analyzing tree cores and complete a manuscript, conduct field tours, and finish the manuscript of weather on herbaceous ANPP. We will conduct the second year of sampling for deer habitat and relate to soil differences. Analyses related to the survey and evaluation of ecosystem services will begin and hopefully close to completion. We have abstracts accepted for presentations in 2020 at the Oklahoma Natural Resources Conference. We will look for additional opportunities to disseminate information. We plan to submit at least 2 manuscripts to peer-refereed journals in 2020.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We accomplished our stated objectives for year two of this four-year project.Specifically: Gathered and collated weather data Collected herbaceous ANPP data Collected stand-level tree data Analyzed tree cores Analyzed weather effects on understory ANPP Sent out survey Began assessment for deer forage Conducted field tours In addition to these tasks, we completed the tasks that we had not yet finished at the end of Year 1. Some specifics related to accomplishments Gathered and collated weather data: A database for daily weather from 1980 to the present was constructed from Daymet. We cross-checked these data using local measurement when available. The data set was updated. Collection of herbaceous ANPP measurements: We collected 280 clip plots and separated them into grass, sedge, legume, forb, litter, and woody. Samples were weighed and added to the database Collection of stand-level tree data: Basal area, canopy cover, and species in the forest overstory were recorded in areas per unit. Approximately 270 tree cores were analyzed. The tree cores were mounted and sanded. They were then scanned and processed with WinCELL software. Cross dating and manual confirmation are complete and analysis relating annual variation to weather is underway. Field tour: A field tour was given to students in NREM 3101. Two field tours were given for landowners and natural resource professionals. Analysis of weather effects on herbaceous ANPP is completed. The first part of the deer forage field survey is completed. This will continue in year 3 Over 1000 surveys were mailed to gauge landowner willingness to pay to improve deer habitat. Over 300 have been returned. We will begin analysis in Year 3. Preliminary findings of interest: Climate and fire impacts on interannual variability understory productivity Understory vegetation is an integral component of ecosystem productivity, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat that is strongly influenced by stand structure, weather, and fire. Along the forest-savanna-grassland (FSG) continuum, frequent fires maintain savanna and grassland ecosystems with productive understories while fire exclusion results in closed-canopy forests with minimal understory. We investigated the effects of stand structure, prescribed fire frequency, and weather factors on interannual variation of aboveground understory annual net primary productivity (ANPP) in experimental units across the continuum of the close-canopy forest to savanna from 1987-2017. The experimental units were created by various combinations of pine harvest, hardwood thinning, and fire return intervals (1, 2, 3, 4 years and none) that have resulted in ecosystems ranging from mature, closed-canopy forests to open savanna. Understory ANPP (forbs, grasses, legume, and woody plants) was measure by clip plots at the end of the growing season of each year. Mean ANPP of nonwoody vegetation ranged from 27 g m-2 y-1 (for harvest-thinning, no fire) to 374 g m-2 y-1 (harvest-thinning, annual burning). Among the other burning treatments, ANPP decreased with fire frequency (235, 226, and 170 g m-2 y-1 for 2, 3, and 4-year burnings). Similarly, woody ANPP ranged from 12 g m-2 y-1 (harvest-thinning, annual burning, no fire) to 83 g m-2 y-1 (harvest-thinning, burning every 3 years). Total tree basal area was inversely related to nonwoody ANPP across the forested system (R2 = 0.75, p <0.0001). June precipitation (R2 = 0.23) and February maximum temperature (R2 = 0.19) were significantly related to ANPP of annually burned savanna (p <0.0001). In contrast, ANPP in closed-canopy forested was inversely related to drought (R2 = 0.44, p <0.0001). Fire was significantly correlated to variation in nonwoody ANPP (p <0.0001). Woody ANPP was primarily related to basal area and drought factors of different months. Long term application of different intervals of prescribed fire on protein content of deer forage Forage quality is a key factor in determining the stocking rate of livestock or the carrying capacity of wildlife species. Forage quality is strongly influenced by time since fire, but the effects of fire interval are less known especially over long time scales. We determined the response of crude protein content in 12 species or functional groups of plants to three different intervals of prescribed fire at the Pushmataha Wildlife Management Area in southeast Oklahoma where these treatments have been applied since 1984. Preliminary results indicate that protein content decreased with more frequent fire return interval but was not statistically significant P=0.17. There was a significant difference in crude protein content between the 12 plants P<0.0001 measured with legumes having the highest crude protein content, followed by woody plants and forbs. Grasses had the lowest protein content of any functional group. Research in 2020 will expand to include all treatments from this study and relate protein content to soil nutrient status. Socio-economic issues related to a different mix of practices that can help in sustainable management agro-ecosystems in the forest-grassland ecotone The first draft of the survey for the research project was completed during the summer of 2019. The survey went through an intensive review process from experts, landowners, and other stakeholders. The survey was approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at Oklahoma State University and mailed out in January to 2,500 landowners of in 50 counties of Oklahoma roughly east to I-35 interstate highway, which is an area of interest for the research. As of February 2020, we have received 295 responses. We are planning to send a second round of surveys in mid-March to non-respondents. The survey data collection is among the most important milestone for this project, which will help capture non-commodity specific benefits associated with different management treatments. The initial findings of the survey suggest that landowners whose objectives are more inclined towards livestock production are less likely to invest in the management of their property for deer hunting management. However, landowners with a longer period of hunting experience are more willing to spend money on hunting site management. Likewise, they will travel longer, if they are unable to spot deer in their regular hunting site compared to landowners with less hunting experience.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Adhikari, A., Will, R., Joshi, O., Zou, C. Fire and climate impacts on understory productivity across a forest-savanna continuum. Oklahoma Natural Resources Conference. February 20-22, 2019. Tulsa, OK.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Will, R.E. Effects of weather and overstory on understory productivity of shortleaf pine savanna, woodland, and forest. 5th Biennial Shortleaf Pine Conference, Van Buren, MO, 3 October 2019.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: McKinney, C., Masters, R., Adhikari, A., Zou, C., Joshi, O., and Will, R. Effect of long term application of different intervals of prescribed fire on crude protein content of deer forage. Society of American Foresters annual meeting, Mount Magazine Lodge, Arkansas, November 21-22, 2019.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Will, R.E., Adhikari, A., Joshi, O., Zou, C.B., Waymire, J., Master, R.E. Response of understory vegetation to inter-annual weather variation and fire along the forest-grassland ecotone of the southcentral US. Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting. Aug. 11-16, 2019. Louisville, KY. (Invited)
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Joshi, O., Masters, R., Zou, C.B., Adhikari, A., Mishra, B., Will, R.E. How resilience are forests to drought and climate change might affect management outcomes for different objectives. Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting. Aug. 11-16, 2019. Louisville, KY. (Invited)
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Mishra, B., Joshi, O., Will, R.E. 2019. Understanding climate change resiliency of Oklahoma forests using FVS and conjoint analysis. A poster presented in International Society of Forest Resource Economics (ISFRE) 2019 Annual Meeting, Columbus, OH. Date: 05/14-15/2019.


Progress 02/01/18 to 01/31/19

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audiences are 1) land managers who are interested in the effects of manipulating vegetation type timber yield, grazing forage, and wildlife habitat 2) scientists who are working in the field of forestry, range, and wildlife 3) students who are learning about forestry, range, and wildlife. Changes/Problems:During this reporting period, we did not accomplish as planned: The first year of deer forage data The survey for deer 'value' The reason for this is that both efforts are led by graduate students (deer forage by an M.S. student and deer value survey by a Ph.D. student). Given when the funds became available, we could not recruit students in time to accomplish these objectives in Year 1. The M.S. student is beginning deer forage data collection in March and the Ph.D. student is beginning the deer value survey this spring as well. This should not a major change of significant problem as it will not reduce the total amount of data collected during the study or impede us from meeting our objectives. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?One MS student and one Ph.D. student are currently working on the project. There is one Post Doc working on the project. Students in NREM 3101 (Forest Resources Field Studies) visited the site for a day and learned about the research. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Students in NREM 3101 (Forest Resources Field Studies) visited the site for a day and learned about the research. Given the first year of a four year study, dissemination of results was slow to get started. However, in 2019 there are already four presentations at regional and national meetings accepted. We anticipate submitting at least one peer-refereed manuscript in 2019 as well. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the second year of this project, we will continue to collect herbaceous ANPP data, finish analyzing tree cores, conduct field tours, and finish analyzing the effect of weather on herbaceous ANPP. We will conduct the first year of sampling for deer habitat, conduct the survey regarding deer 'value', and begin the analysis related to tree ANPP and weather. We have abstracts accepted for presentations in 2019 at the Oklahoma Natural Resources Conference, the Biennial Southern Silviculture Conference, and the annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America. We will look for additional opportunities to disseminate information.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We accomplished most of our stated objectives for year one of this four-year project. Specifically, we accomplished the following related to our objectives for Year 1 outlined in our project timetable: Gathered and collated weather data Collected herbaceous ANPP data Collected stand-level tree data Collected tree cores Began analysis of tree cores Conducted a field tour We did not accomplish: The first year of deer forage data The survey for deer 'value' The reason for this is that both efforts are led by graduate students (deer forage by an M.S. student and deer value survey by a Ph.D. student). Given when the funds became available, we could not recruit students in time to accomplish these objectives in Year 1. The M.S. student is beginning deer forage data collection in March and the Ph.D. student is beginning the deer value survey this spring as well. This will not reduce the total amount of data collected during the study or impede us from meeting objectives. Some specifics related to accomplishments: Gathered and collated weather data: A database for daily weather from 1980 to present was constructed from Daymet. We cross-checked these data using local measurement when available. The data set is completed and ready for interfacing with plant productivity measurements. Collection of herbaceous ANPP measurements: We collected 280 clip plots and separated them into grass, sedge, legume, forb, litter, and woody. Samples were weighed and added to the database. Collection of stand-level tree data: Basal area, canopy cover, and species in the forest overstory were recorded in areas per unit. Collection of tree cores: We collected approximately 270 tree cores. Cores include both shortleaf pine and post oak of a variety of ages and social positions. Tree core analysis: The tree cores have been mounted and sanded. They were then scanned and are being processed with WinCELL software. Cross-dating and manual confirmation are required. The analysis is on target. Field tour: A field tour was given to students in NREM 3101. Analysis of weather effects on herbaceous ANPP: This is an objective for Year 2, but we initiated an effort in Year 1. Preliminary results are below: Preliminary findings of interest Fire and climate impacts on understory productivity across a forest-savanna continuum Understory non-woody vegetation is an integral component of wildlife habitat and cattle forage. Understory productivity is strongly influenced by fire frequency and overstory canopy cover. In the absence of natural fire, prescribed fire can be a surrogate for this major ecological process to maintain productivity. In addition, inter-annual weather variability can strongly influence aboveground productivity of understory vegetation. We determined the response of non-woody vegetation to prescribed fire and inter-annual weather variation within the Forest Research Area experimental plots at the Pushmataha Wildlife Management in southeastern Oklahoma with the objective to investigate the role of prescribed fire frequency and weather variability on aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of non-woody understory vegetation. The study was conducted with seven treatments. CONT: Control, not thinned or burned, HT: Pine harvested, hardwood thinned, not burned, HNT1: Pine harvested, hardwood not thinned, burned annually, HT1: Pine harvested, hardwood thinned, burned annually, HT2: Pine harvested, hardwood thinned, burned every two years, HT3: Pine harvested, hardwood thinned, burned every three years, HT4: Pine harvested, hardwood thinned, burned every four years. Herbaceous vegetation was sampled from 0.25 m2 clip plots within each unit most years (1987 to 2018). Oneway ANOVA with Posthoc Tukey's test was done to estimate the difference in the mean value of ANPP among the treatments. Pearson's correlation coefficient was estimated to assess the influence of climate predictors on ANPP. We found that annual burning was optimal for maintaining open forest structure with the maximum understory non-woody ANPP. Across all experimental units, mean ANPP of non-woody vegetation ranged from 9 g/m2/y (for harvest-thinning, no fire: HT) and 14 g/m2/y (no fire, no thinning: CONT) to 342 g/m2/y (annual burning: HT1) and decreased with fire frequency with ANPP values of 234, 227, and 172 g/m2/y for HT2, HT3, and HT4 treatments, respectively. Non-woody ANPP had the greatest positive correlation with June precipitation (r = 0.63; p <0.0001) and greatest negative correlation with June maximum temperature (r = -0.37; p < 0.0001) for annual burned, thinned, and harvested treatment plots. These results indicate that fire exclusion, as well as hot and dry conditions, reduce understory productivity crucial for wildlife habitat and cattle forage across a forest-savanna continuum. Further, these results are important to understand how management, as well as drought and potential climate change, affect understory vegetation dynamics and productivity in forest and savanna ecosystems.

Publications