Source: RUTGERS, THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW JERSEY submitted to
IMPACT ANALYSES AND DECISION STRATEGIES FOR AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH (NC1034)
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
HATCH
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1012918
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
NC-_old1034
Project Start Date
Jun 9, 2017
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2021
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
RUTGERS, THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW JERSEY
3 RUTGERS PLZA
NEW BRUNSWICK,NJ 08901-8559
Performing Department
Agricultural Food & Resource Economics
Non Technical Summary
New biotechnologies, consolidation of input industries andmajor investments inagricultural research by China, India and Brazilare causing concerns among farmers, current agribusiness and consumers about the future of thefood system. This study will focuseach of thesechanges concentrating on the development of science-based agribusiness and agriculture in China, India and Brazil. In particular we will focus on agribusiness research because itwas so important to the competitiveness of US agribusiness and farmers and because little is know aboutagribusiness research in these three countries. We will measure theamountagrlbusiness research andinnovation in those countries using government data and through surveys of companies. We will construct economic models the behavior of these firms to develop an understanding ofhow new biotechnologies like CRISPR, government policies, and economic trends influence their behavior. Then we will speculate aboutthe impact offirms from these countries on USagribusiness, US farmersand farmers around the world. Wehope that these studies will provide a basis for policy making in the US, China,Brazil and India which will ultimately benefit farmers and consumers.
Animal Health Component
100%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
61115993010100%
Knowledge Area
611 - Foreign Policy and Programs;

Subject Of Investigation
1599 - Grain crops, general/other;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;
Goals / Objectives
Measure trends, patterns, and sources of agricultural productivity growth. Analyze the adoption and diffusion of new agricultural technologies, assess agronomic, economic, and institutional barriers to adoption, and evaluate policies to overcome such barriers. Analyze decision strategies for funding, planning, managing, and evaluating agricultural research by public and private organizations. Analyze opportunities, risks, and net benefits from public-private sector linkages and technology transfer arrangements, including joint ventures, partnering, consortia, specialty research centers, start-up companies, and intellectual property arrangements.
Project Methods
Collecting data on agribusiness research and innovation in China and India along with data on economic factors, technology and policies that could influence their decisions to do research and innovation.Developand estimate econometric models ofagribusiness firms'research and innovation activities.Toproject thepossiboleimpact of new gene editing technologies and mergers and acquistions we willuse the models developed for India and China as well asmodels that have been developed by otherscholars tosimulatea number ofpossible futurepathways of impact.

Progress 06/09/17 to 09/30/21

Outputs
Target Audience:Policy makers, agribusiness, farmers and scholars Changes/Problems:The major problems were the COVID-19 epidemic that did not allow travel to the annual meeting of the project. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results of this research was disseminated through Academic meetings and seminars to US government officials. some examples are: Carl Pray, Chandrasekhara Rao and Gal Hochman organizers. "The Bioeconomy as a Framework for Disruptive Innovations for Sustainable Economic Growth Invited Session of the International Conference of Agricultural Economists August 20, 2021 Carl Pray, Anwar Naseem, Latha Nagarajan. "Impact of diversification of demand for agriculture and stronger IPRs on R&D and innovation in Asia and Africa." International Conference of Agricultural Economists. August 25, 2021 What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? In developing countries, public efforts could help turn the many exciting private-sector examples of digital agriculture into viable industries and spread their benefits to a larger number of farmers and consumers. Interventions that have promise include policies for an enabling business environment, developing knowledge and skills, providing communication infrastructure and financing applied research in support of digital technologies. Public action is not only needed to harness the opportunities created by digital agriculture but also to manage its potential threats, such as increasing concentration in agricultural input industries. A combination of private efforts and smart public action is required to ensure that digital agriculture will result in an "agricultural revolution" that benefits farmers, farm laborers, and consumers as well as the environment across the globe. During this final period: (1) We measured and publish public and private research and innovation in China and showed public sector research had a particularly important role in the growth of agricultural producitivity there. See China Economic Review paper. (2) Analyzed the development and spread of digital agriculture in AEPP paper (4) Looked at the response of public and private research organizations in developing countries to the opportunities and challenges created by the COVID-19 pandemic and developed a WEBINAR on this topic.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Haiyan Deng, Yanhong Jin, Carl Pray, Ruifa Hu, Enjun Xia and Hong Meng. Impact of public research and development and extension on agricultural productivity in China from 1990 to 2013. China Economic Review, Available online 14 September 2021
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Birner, Regina, Thomas Daum and Carl Pray. Who drives the digital revolution in agriculture? A worldwide review of supply-side trends, players and challenges. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 15 March 2021
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Anderson, Jock R., Regina Birner, Latha Nagarajan, Anwar Naseem and Carl E. Pray, Private Agricultural R&D: Do the Poor Benefit? Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization 18(2), 1-12. 2021.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2021 Citation: Eduardo Trigo, Hugo Chavarr�a, Carl Pray, Stuart J. Smyth, Agustin Torroba, Justus Wesseler, David Zilberman, Juan F. Martinez. The Bioeconomy and Food Systems Transformation.in Science and Innovations for Food Systems Transformation and Summit Actions Joachim von Braun, Kaosar Afsana, Louise O . Fresco, Mohamed Hassan (editors) 2021. UN Food Systems Summit 2021 https://sc-fss2021.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ScGroup_Reader_UNFSS2021.pdf


Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20

Outputs
Target Audience:Other academics. Changes/Problems:COVID 19 shutdowns meant we had to cancel the NC1034 annual meetings and prevented other planned travel to collect data. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Through webinars and conferences for scholars and policy makers. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?1. Publish the paper on sources of Chinese agricultural productivity. 2. Publish paper on spread of digital agriculture.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? 1. We continued the measurement of the sources of Chinese agricultural productivity. A draft article has been completed in September 2020 and is now being revised. 2. Looked at the sources and diffusion of digital agricultural technology. One of our resulting publications stated the following: China's research and development (R&D) policy has changed considerably over recent decades, and great changes occurred in 2006 when the main programme objective of China's R&D changed from the 863 Programme and 973 Programme to the National Science and Technology Major Project. One topic that has drawn extensive attention is whether the investment reform improved R&D productivity in China. Using a unique panel dataset from 160 universities, the paper examines the effect of the investment reform on productivity improvement in China's agricultural biotechnology sector. We use a panel count data model with a dynamic feedback mechanism to model the knowledge production process. Strong evidence indicates that the investment reform greatly contributes to knowledge output production in China's agricultural biotechnology sector. We also find that the input quality is more important than the absolute quantity; human research capacity exhibits the greatest contribution to the output of patents; past knowledge accumulation helps produce more patents; and entry barriers to patent production exist in China's agricultural biotechnology sector. Moreover, the patent explosion in China may have been largely caused by improvements in the human capital input quality.

Publications

  • Type: Other Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2019 Citation: Regina Birner, Thomas Daum and Carl Pray Farming 4.0: Harnessing Opportunities and Managing Threats of Digitalization in Crop and Livestock Farming and in the Agricultural Input Industries. World Bank draft 2019 pp 86.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2020 Citation: Jinyang Cai, Weiqiong Chen Jikun Huang Ruifa Hu Carl E. Pray. The Evolving Structure of Chinese R&D Funding and its Implications for the Productivity of Agricultural Biotechnology Research. Journal of Agricultural Economics Volume71, Issue2, Pages 287-304 June 2020.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Haiyan Deng, Ruifa Hu, Carl Pray, Yanhong Jin. Determinants of Firm-level Lobbying and Government Responsiveness in Agricultural Biotechnology in China. Review of Policy Research December 2019.


Progress 10/01/18 to 09/30/19

Outputs
Target Audience:Other academics in field of agricultural economics and policy makers. Changes/Problems:Major problems are the lack of reliable data on individual private Chinese and international firms in China after about 2011. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?A graduate student participated in activities with this research How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?We have reported the results to policy makers in USDA's economic research service as well as reporting the results to other economists interested in Chinese agricultural technology policy. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We are collecting new sources of innovation and research data on the agricultural input industry. We will incorporate them into our econometric models of agricultural productivity to get better estimates of the impacts of public and private research.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? (1). We measure the importance of government research and private sector innovations as sources ofChinese agricultural productivity. For the period 1990 to 2013 government research was made the most important contributions to productivity growth. (3). We found that policies such as production subsidies to private firms and State Owned Enterprises were increased their investments in R&D and the number of innovations produced.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Jaim Jos� da Silva J�nior, Jos� Maria Jardim da Silveira, Andr�a Leda Ramos de Oliveira, Caroline Nascimento Pereira, Carolina Bueno Silveira, and Carl Esek Pray," Investments in agricultural research and development: recent transformations in Brazil." Revista Brasileira de Inova��o. 18 (1), p. 89-120, 2019
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Haiyan Deng, Ruifa Hu, Carl Pray, Yanhong Jin. Perception and Attitude toward GM Technology among Agribusiness Managers in China as Producers and as Consumers. Sustainability vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, March, 2019.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Latha Nagarajan, Anwar Naseem, Carl Pray Contribution of policy change on maize varietal development and yields in Kenya. Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies 14 May 2019
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Haiyan Deng and Carl Pray. Possible Benefits from Gene Editing in China under Different Regulatory Scenarios. 23th International Consortium of Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) conference. Ravello, Italy June 47, 2019
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Carl Pray, Haiyan Deng, Yanhong Jin and Yawei Zhao. Impact of public and private R&D on Agricultural TFP in China NC-1034 Annual Meeting, Atlanta, July 20, 2019.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2019 Citation: Carl Pray, Haiyan Deng, Changxin Yu, Tongpeng Deng, Yanhong Jin Impact of Chinese Policies on Competitiveness and Innovation of Chinese agricultural input industries NC-1034 Annual meeting, Atlanta, July 20, 2019.


Progress 10/01/17 to 09/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience:Policy makers, agribusiness, farmers and scholars Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?We have presented the results to at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association meeting in Washington DC, the International Conference of Agricultural Economics in Vancouver and at the International Consortiumfor Applied Bioeconomy Research at the World Bank in Washington DC. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Development of data for presentations and publications will continue

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Goal 1. We acquired and started using a database on R&D, innovation and productivity ofChinese agricultural input and food industry firms 2001 to 2010.We also updated our data on private sector R&D in India. Goal 2. Analyzed the reasons that the Chinese government has not approved the cultivation of GMO food crops. Goal 3. Analyzed the decision making of Chinese and Indian firms on conducting agricultural research and how much to invest. China is moving from "Made in China" to "Innovated in China."in many sectors of the economy, but agriculture biotechnology has not made that shift. The Chinese government has invested more money in agricultural biotechnology research than any country, leading to the development many genetically engineered (GE) crops with a variety of different traits such as GE insect resistant cotton, rice and maize (corn) varieties, which can dramatically lower pesticide use and increase yields by limiting insect damage. GE maize and GE rice are ready for the market, but have not been approved for commercialization . In addition to GE traits that were developed in China; international corporations, universities and governments have developed a substantial pipeline of GE traits. Many of these traits could be used in China to improve the incomes and health of Chinese farmers and consumers. Seventeen GE maize traits, 12 GE soybean traits, and 12 GE canola traits have been approved by the Chinese government for importation as processing materials and subsequent consumption primarily in the form of meat by people. Despite the large number of options, the only foreign GE trait that Chinese farmers can legally plant is Monsanto's insect-resistant Bt cotton which was approved in 1997 and is now obsolete in the rest of the world.

Publications

  • Type: Books Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: N. Chandrasekhara Rao, Carl E. Pray and Ronald J. Herring eds. Biotechnology for a Second Green Revolution in India: Socioeconomic, Political, and Public Policy Issues Academic Foundation Press: New Delhi. 2018.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Carl Pray, Jikun Huang, Ruifa Hu, Haiyan Deng, Jun Yang, and Xenia K. Morin. Prospects for cultivation of genetically engineered food crops in China. Global Food Security, Volume 16, March 2018, Pages 133-137
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Regina Birner and Carl E. Pray, Bioeconomy in Serraj R. and Pingali P. eds. Agriculture and Food systems to 2050. World Scientific Publishing: Singapore. 2018.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Birner, R., Naseem, A., Pray, C. and Anderson, J.R. 2018, Fostering Political Will to Drive Agricultural Transformation. Chapter 2 in Africa Agriculture Status Report 2018: Catalyzing Government Capacity to Drive Agricultural Transformation. Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa AGRA, Nairobi, 22-50.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Latha Nagarajan, Carl E. Pray and Anwar Naseem. ⿿Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Private Sector R&D on Cotton Productivity in India.⿝ N. C. Rao C. E. Pray and R J. Herring eds. Biotechnology for a Second Green Revolution in India: Socioeconomic, Political, and Public Policy Issues Academic Foundation Press: New Delhi 2018 pp. 271-290.


Progress 06/09/17 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:Policy makers, agribusiness, farmers and scholars. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?We are training a Rutgers graduate student in data analysis using the Chinese data. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Through conference presentations and journal articles What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?India: we will complete R&D data collection and then start to analyze the trends in R&D. We will use econometric analysis of this data to estimate the impact of public sector R&D and other government policies and private research. We will then collaborate with Keith Fuglie and Nick Rada to assess the impact of public and private research on agricultural productivity. China: We will analyze the firm level agribusiness data to measure the trends in private R&D from 2000 to 2010. We will estimate the impact of R&D on innovation and productivity of the firms. In addition we are collecting data on government agricultural R&D in China. We will use this and other data to see the impact of government R&D on agribusiness R&D, innovation and productivity. In addition will collaborate wiht Fuglie and Sun Ling Wang at ERS to measure the impact of public and private R&D on agricultural productivity.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? For the few months this project has been active, we have collected firm level data on private sector R&D in India and China. We also have data on innovations in those countries. The new Indian data is for 2015 and update previous data that we have collected periodically since 1986. The Chinese data is new to us and is for 2001, 2006, 2007, and 2010.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Yanhong Jin, Yahong Hu, Carl Pray, Ruifa Hu, "Impact of government science and technology policies with a focus on biotechnology research on commercial agricultural innovation in China", China Agricultural Economic Review, 2017 Vol. 9 Issue: 3, pp.438-452.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Haiyan Deng, Ruifa Hu, Jikun Huang, Carl Pray, Yanhong Jin, Zhonghua Li, "Attitudes toward GM foods, biotechnology R&D investment and lobbying activities among agribusiness firms in the food, feed, chemical and seed industries in China", China Agricultural Economic Review, 2017. Vol. 9 Issue: 3, pp.385-396.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Carl Pray. Private Agricultural R&D and Innovation in Brazil, China and India: Lessons & Opportunities. Farm Foundation Symposium to Examine Policies for Research, Productivity Growth. Washington, D.C. September 20, 2017.