Progress 10/01/17 to 09/30/18
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience reached during this period was citrus growers in Florida, as well as other citrus industry stakeholders. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?I delivered the following presentationas part of in-training services:Budgeting and Profitability Analysis of Perennial Crops. FRE In-Service Training on enterprise budgeting. April 5, 2018 How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?To disseminate the findings and generate change in knowledge, which allows for better decision-making, I participated in field days, delivered presentations in extension meetings and trade shows; the total attendance to those was 2,353. In addition, I have published several extension and outreach documents. The documents are uploaded into the CREC extension economic website, which received 137,538 hits in 2018. I also had 56 consultations combining meetings, office visits, telephone calls, and emails. The funding is key to continue these efforts in the current challenging times for Florida citrus growers. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?I plan on continuing collecting data from growers and other industry stakeholders to document and analyze the annual changes in practices, costs, and returns of growing citrus in Florida.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
During 2018, I continued my efforts to collect data to document and analyze the changes in practices, costs, and returns of growing citrus in Florida. I disseminated the findings both by publishing manuscripts and delivering presentations to the target audience.Currently, HLB is endemic across the state of Florida. Therefore, enterprise budgets constitute a fundamental benchmark to analyze how citrus production costs are affected by changing input prices and practices. Moreover, as researchers propose solutions to cure or better manage the effects of HLB, enterprise budgets are key to determine whether those proposed solutions are economically feasible on a commercial scale. Objective 1. Estimate the costs and returns associated with citrus production and fresh packing in Florida and analyze how those costs and returns will be affected by changing input prices and new production technologies. Major activities completed / experiments conducted: Analyzed the collected data on cost of production to document changes since last season. Data collected: Collected data for cost of production, packing charges, and harvesting charges by surveying growers, packers and harvesting companies Summary statistics and discussion of results: The average costs of production per acre for Processed Oranges in Southwest Florida in 2017/18 was $2,334,72 showing a marginal decrease compared to the previous season. The delivered-in breakeven price for covering the total costs of production with yield at 150 boxes per acre was $3.31 per pound solids. The main change this season was the increase in fertilizer spending as growers attempt to "spoon-feed" HLB-affected trees to increase yield. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: Published 2 manuscripts documenting the changes in the Florida citrus industry and made 2 presentations to disseminate the findings. Objective 2. Collect data on citrus production costs from Brazil and any other relevant citrus growing regions by creating a network of contacts. Major activities completed / experiments conducted: I kept contact with Brazilian researchers and visited with Spanish growers Data collected: I gathered information on Spanish citrus production Summary statistics and discussion of results: While Spain produces only about 6 percent of the world's citrus, it accounts for nearly 25 percent of fresh citrus exports worldwide. The main commercial varieties grown are oranges, which comprise about 62 percent of production. Oranges consist mainly of early (Navelina), mid-season (Lane Late, Navelate and Salustiana) and late (Valencia) varieties. Nearly 75 percent of Spain's total production is marketed as fresh, with about 25 percent being processed into juice as field run or as packinghouse eliminations. Spain's average citrus planting is rather small compared to Florida and Brazil, with many plantings being less than 7 acres. Even though Spanish growers are wary about the prospect of HLB infection, they are optimistic about managing the disease. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: Published 3 manuscripts and made 3 presentations Objective 3. Collect data to assess the impact of HLB infection on citrus operations in Florida Major activities completed / experiments conducted: Analyzed the impact of HLB on tree replacement strategies by looking into the financial outcomes of the decision of whether to keep or replace a Valencia orange tree within a grove in Central Florida were calculated using a cash budget model for a 25-year investment horizon. Data collected: I collected historical data on yields, practices, and incentive planting programs Summary statistics and discussion of results: Eight different scenarios were compared based on a discounted net present value cash flow, assuming a nominal discount rate of 10%. The analysis shows that the strategy of keeping an empty space, without a tree, and without production for 25 years, leads to the highest losses regardless of the tree density. The strategy of keeping a tree with 0.1 box annual yield loss from year 2 to 25 without tree replacement, led to the second highest losses among all combinations of scenario and tree density. Moreover, scenarios with tree replacement that include an incentive program, presented lower discounted cumulative losses when compared to having no tree or keeping an unhealthy tree. In general, at least one of the three scenarios with tree replacement and incentive program, presented a higher/lower or similar discounted cumulative profit/loss in all combinations of annual yield loss and tree density, compared to the baseline scenario and scenarios without tree replacement. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: Delivered 1presentation Objective 4. Determine the economic feasibility of emerging technologies and management strategies that are developed to mitigate the impacts of HLB. Major activities completed / experiments conducted: Estimated establishment and production costs as well as profitability for three different tree planting densities under different production and market conditions. Data collected: Costs and price on different growers' practices Summary statistics and discussion of results: In a grove with 145 trees per acre, under a scenario with low yield and low prices, the investment is not profitable; with medium prices, the partial investment scenario yields only a 1% return. When prices are high, there is a modest return between 1% and 3% depending on the level of investment in machinery and irrigation. Under a high yield scenario, the return of a grove with 145 trees per acre varies from 1 up to 10% depending on the combination of prices and investment requirement. In a grove with 220 trees per acre, despite the higher initial investment relative to the 145 baseline, the returns are positive. Under a low yield scenario, the rate of return ranges between 2% to 10% depending on market conditions and the level of investment required. Under a high yield scenario, depending on the level of prices and investment, the rate of return ranges from 8% to 17%. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: Delivered 2 presentations Objective 5. Provide a financial assessment of the practices and costs involved in blueberry and peach production in Florida, including the analysis of different market scenarios to determine their potential profitability to growers. Major activities completed / experiments conducted: Analyzed crop insurance policies available for blueberry growers in Florida to better manage their risks Data collected: Policy premiums Summary statistics and discussion of results: Eligible growers may benefit from insuring their farms under a revenue policy rather than a yield policy Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized. Delivered 1 presentation
Publications
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Singerman, A. 2018. Cost of Production for Fresh Grapefruit in Indian River, 2016/17. University of Florida, IFAS, EDIS document FE 1037
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Singerman, A. 2018. Cost of Production for Processed Oranges in Southwest Florida, 2016/17. University of Florida, IFAS, EDIS document FE1038
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Futch, S. and A. Singerman. 2018. Inside Spain⿿s Citrus Industry. Citrus Industry. July 2018
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Singerman, A. 2018 Current Challenges in the Florida Citrus Industry. Hortifruit Brazil. May 2018
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Futch, S. and A. Singerman. An Inside Look at Brazil⿿s citrus Production Practices. Citrus Industry. January 2018
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Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience reached during this period was citrus growers in Florida, as well as other citrus industry stakeholders. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?I delivered two presentations as part of in-training services. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?To disseminate the findings and generate change in knowledge, which allows for better decision-making, I participated in field days, delivered presentations in extension meetings and trade shows; the total attendance to those was 2,271. In addition, I have published several extension and outreach documents. The documents are uploaded into the CREC extension economic website, which received 111,511 hits in 2017. I also had 106 consultations combining meetings, office visits, telephone calls, and emails. The funding is key to continue these efforts in the current challenging times for Florida citrus growers. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?I plan on continuingmy efforts to collect data from growers and other industry stakeholders to document and analyze the changes in practices, costs, and returns of growing citrus in Florida.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
In the current era of HLB, nearly all groves in Florida are affected by HLB. Therefore, enterprise budgets constitute a key industry benchmark to analyze how citrus production costs are affected by changing input prices and practices. Moreover, as researchers develop solutions to cure or better manage the effects of HLB, enterprise budgets are key to determine whether those proposed solutions are economically feasible on a commercial scale.During 2017, I continued my efforts to collect data from growers and other industry stakeholders to document and analyze the changes in practices, costs, and returns of growing citrus in Florida. I disseminated the findings both by publishing manuscripts and delivering presentations to the target audience. Objective 1. Estimate the costs and returns associated with citrus production and fresh packing in Florida and analyze how those costs and returns will be affected by changing input prices and new production technologies. Major activities completed / experiments conducted: Analyzed the collected data on cost of production to document changes since last season. Data collected: Collected data for cost of production, packing charges, and harvesting charges by surveying growers, packers and harvesting companies Summary statistics and discussion of results: The average costs of production per acre for Processed Oranges in Southwest Florida in 2016/17 was $2,376, showing only a marginal increase from last season. The delivered-in breakeven price for covering the total costs of production with yields at 225 boxes per acre was $2.32 per pound solids. As fruit production decreases, harvesting costs continue to increase. Lower volume of fruit per tree reduces harvesting efficiency and thereby increases costs, especially that of picking and roadsiding. Efficiency is impacted by having smaller-sized fruit, another consequence of HLB. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: Published 4 manuscripts documenting the changes in the Florida citrus industry. Delivered 3 presentation to share the findings Objective 2. Collect data on citrus production costs from Brazil and any other relevant citrus growing regions by creating a network of contacts. Major activities completed / experiments conducted: I contacted and visited with Brazilian researchers Data collected: I collected data on the impact of HLB on Brazilian citrus production and on the innovative strategies growers use to combat the disease Summary statistics and discussion of results: The average incidence of HLB in 2017 was 16.73%. Many of the larger growers in the southwest citrus production region of the State of São Paulo have found it economically beneficial to work with nearby property owners in their management of psyllids and HLB. Their strategy addresses both psyllids and HLB in a regional approach and can extend as far as 1.25 to 3 miles beyond their property; in one case a grower hopes to extend this management plan as far as 12 miles over time. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: Published 1 manuscript documenting the changes in the Florida citrus industry. Objective 3. Collect data to assess the impact of HLB infection on citrus operations in Florida Major activities completed / experiments conducted: Analyzed the impact of HLB on theFlorida citrus industry in last 15 years, particularly on the reduction in number of growers Data collected: I collected historical data on the number of growers in the last 15 years Summary statistics and discussion of results: The reduction in number of growers has been larger in both absolute numbers and percentage terms for smaller operations Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized: Delivered 2 presentation to share the findings Objective 4. Determine the economic feasibility of emerging technologies and management strategies that are developed to mitigate the impacts of HLB. Major activities completed / experiments conducted: Analyzed data to establish whether individual growers experienced an increase in yields in their groves one year after starting the use of streptomycin and oxytetracycline. Data collected: Collected data on bactericide use. Also collected data on and the pattern of substitutions of bactericides with other grove cultural programs. Summary statistics and discussion of results: I learned that insecticides, coordinated sprays, and dry fertilizer were the programs that they had reduced the most. 58% of growers who cut back on their programs reduced insecticides applications, and 43% out of those - the largest percentage across all programs - did so by more than 10%. In addition, 45% of growers reported they reduced coordinated or Citrus Health Management Areas (CHMA) sprays; 23% of them by more than 10%. The largest percentage of growers (64%) reduced the cost of dry fertilizer; 36% of them by more than 10%. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized. Published 3 manuscripts, 2 of which include the work I did with the data collected reported last year Objective 5. Provide a financial assessment of the practices and costs involved in blueberry and peach production in Florida, including the analysis of different market scenarios to determine their potential profitability to growers. Major activities completed / experiments conducted: Estimated establishment and production costs, as well as the potential profitability of a peach orchard in Florida Data collected: Collected quotes for chemicals, for the investment in machinery and irrigation from machinery dealers and companies specialized in irrigation. The cultural practices were based on a combination of recommendations from UF/IFAS Extension personnel and experience of peach growers that provided feedback Summary statistics and discussion of results: Found the initial investment required for a peach operation in Florida to be $6,457 per acre; the expense in land preparation and planting in year 1 is $2,541 per acre. Variable and fixed costs in years 2 through 15 average $5,680 per acre. As an example of profitability, when using a 10% discount rate, an operation yielding 6,525 pounds of marketable fruit per acre during its most productive years obtains a positive NPV when the average price is $2.38 per pound. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized. Published 1 manuscript documenting the changes in the Florida citrus industry.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Singerman, A., S.H. Lence and P. Useche. 2017. Area-Wide Pest Management: Lessons Learned from Citrus Greening in Florida. Choices Magazine 32(3): 1-10
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Singerman, A., S.H. Lence and P. Useche. 2017. Is Area-Wide Pest Management Useful? The Case of Citrus Greening. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 39(4): 609-634
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Singerman, A., and P. Useche. 2017. Florida Citrus Growers First Impressions on Genetically Modified Trees.�AgBioForum�20(1): 67-83.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Singerman, A. and M. Burani-Arouca. 2017. Evolution of Citrus Disease Management Programs and Their Economic Implications: The Case of Floridas Citrus Industry. University of Florida, IFAS, EDIS document FE915. http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/fe915
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Singerman, A. 2017. Cost of Production for Processed Oranges in Southwest Florida, 2015/16. University of Florida, IFAS, EDIS document FE1007. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/fe1007
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Singerman, A. 2017. Cost of Production for Processed Oranges in Central Florida (Ridge), 2015/16. University of Florida, IFAS, EDIS document FE1006. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/fe1006
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Singerman, A. M. Burani-Arouca, S. Futch, and R. Ranierig. Harvesting Charges for Florida Citrus. Citrus Industry. September 2017
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Futch, S. and A. Singerman. 2017 Citrus Production in Brazil. Citrus Industry.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Singerman, A., M. Burani-Arouca and M. Olmsted. 2017. Establishment and Production Costs for Peach Orchards in Florida: Enterprise Budget and Profitability Analysis. University of Florida, IFAS, EDIS document FE1016. http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/fe1016
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Progress 03/17/16 to 09/30/16
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience reached during this period was citrus growers in Florida, as well as other citrus industry stakeholders. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?To disseminate the findings, I participated in field days and delivered presentations in extension meetings and trade shows; the total attendance to those was 1,551. In addition, I have published several extension and outreach documents. The documents are uploaded into the CREC extension economic website, which received 100,423 hits in 2016. I also had 83 consultations combining office visits, telephone calls, and emails. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Given that nearly 100% of all groves in Florida are currently estimated to be infected with HLB and that to date there is no cure or an economically viable option for managing HLB infected trees, it is uncertain whether growers can manage the disease while maintaining a production level that returns a profit. Thus, the Florida citrus industry, which is estimated to contribute almost $11 million to the state's economy, needs a benchmark on costs and practices of production not only to analyze how costs are affected by changing input prices and practices but also because as researchers develop solutions to manage HLB, determining whether they are economically feasible on a commercial scale is key for growers. In 2016, collected data to document and analyze the changes in cultural practices and costs of growing citrus in Florida. In addition, also collected and analyzed data that provided growers with information regarding alternative crops. To disseminate the findings and generate change in knowledge, which allows for better decision-making, I participated in field days and delivered presentations in extension meetings and trade shows; the total attendance to those was 1,551. In addition, I have published several extension and outreach documents. The documents are uploaded into the CREC extension economic website, which received 100,423 hits in 2016. I also had 83 consultations combining office visits, telephone calls, and emails. The funding is key to continue these efforts in the current challenging times for Florida citrus growers. Objective 1. Major activities completed / experiments conducted:Published cost of production data for 2014/15 and conducted survey to collect data for 2015/16 Data collected:Collected data for cost of production, packing charges, and harvesting charges by surveying growers, packers and harvesting companies Summary statistics and discussion of results:The average costs of production per acre for Processed Oranges in Southwest Florida in 2015/16 was $2,327.98, down $87.86 from last season. The delivered-in breakeven price for covering the total costs of production with yields at 250 boxes per acre was $2.18 per pound solids.Regarding harvesting costs, roadsiding for fresh fruit showed a 47% increase relative to the previous season. The average roadsiding for processed fruit increased by 22%. For processed fruit, picking went up 29%, on average, compared to last season. The general increase in harvesting charges is due to the lower fruit production during the 2015/16 season. Lower volume of fruit per tree reduces harvesting efficiency and thereby increases costs, especially that of picking and roadsiding. Efficency is impacted by having smaller-sized fruit, another consecuence of HLB. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized:Published 5 manuscripts documenting the changes in the Florida citrus industry.Delivered two presentation to share the findings Objective 2. Major activities completed / experiments conducted:Icontacted and established working relationships with Brazilian researchers to eventually start collaborating Data collected:Nothing to reportyet Summary statistics and discussion of results:Nothing to reportyet Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized:Nothing to reportyet Objective 3. Major activities completed / experiments conducted:Conducted a survey of individuals involved in citrus production in Florida to estimate current level of impact of HLB Data collected:Obtained 76 surveys from growers who operated 156,614 acres, which accounts for approximately 30% of the totalacreage devoted to citrus in Florida. Summary statistics and discussion of results:Found that, on average, the current percentage of HLB-infected acres and HLB-infected trees in a citrus operation in Florida are 90% and 80%, respectively. Furthermore, compared to pre-HLB levels, the average percentage of HLB-related yield loss that growers attribute to HLB is 41%. In addition, citrus operations in central Florida experience a 12% higher yield loss to HLB relative to those in southwest Florida. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized:We provided the first growers' survey-based estimates of both the level of HLB infection in Florida and the impact of HLB on citrus operations in Florida. Objective 4. Major activities completed / experiments conducted:Estimated the differential benefit of a well-performing Citrus Health Management Area (CHMA) Data collected: Farm-level production data from a grower that owns blocks in two different CHMAs Summary statistics and discussion of results:Estimated the differential benefit a well-performing CHMA can provide is $1,231 per acre Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized:After showing growers the results of this management approach, 30% of the participants positively changed their survey responses regarding how likely they are to coordinate insecticide sprays. The combined area managed by the growers that participated in the experiment was 153,000 acres. Thus, the potential economic benefit resulting from higher CHMA participation levels driven only by that30% of growers that attended the meeting and presumably could change their behavior can be estimated at $56 million. Objective 5. Major activities completed / experiments conducted: Estimated establishment and production costs, as well as the potential profitability of a southern highbush blueberry orchard in Florid Data collected:Collected quotes for chemicals, for the investment in machinery and irrigation from machinery dealers and companies specialized in irrigation. The cultural practices were based on a combination of recommendations from UF/IFAS Extension personnel and experienceof blueberry growers that provided feedback Summary statistics and discussion of results:Found the initial investment required for a blueberry operation in Florida to be $19,598 per acre; the expense in land preparation andplanting alone in year one is $9,853. Variable and fixed costs in years 2 through 10 range from $8,340 to $9,028 per acre. As anexample of profitability, we found that an operation yielding 6,000 (8,000) pounds of marketable berries per acre during its mostproductive years has a positive NPV when the average price is $4.90 ($4.30) per pound using a discount rate of 10%. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized:Put together an extension manuscript summarizing findings, which has been accepted for publication
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Singerman, A., P. Useche. 2016. Florida Citrus Growers First Impressions on Genetically Modified Trees . AgBioForum. forthcoming
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Singerman, A., M. Arouca, J.G. Williamson, and G. England. 2016. Establishment and Production Costs for Southern Highbush Blueberry Orchards in Florida: Enterprise Budget and Profitability Analysis". University of Florida, IFAS, Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS) document FE1002
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Singerman, A., M. Arouca, S.H. Futch. 2016. 2015/16 Harvesting Charges for Florida Citrus: Picking, Roadsiding and Hauling". University of Florida, IFAS, Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS) document FE1005
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Arouca, M., S.H. Futch, A. Singerman. 2016. Planting and Annual Cultural Maintenance Costs for Reset-Replacement Trees in a Florida Citrus Grove in 2016". University of Florida, IFAS, Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS) document FE995
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Singerman, A. 2016. Cost of Production for Processed Oranges in Central Florida (Ridge), 2014/15". University of Florida, IFAS, Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS) document FE985
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Singerman, A. 2016. Cost of Production for Processed Oranges in Southwest Florida, 2014/15". University of Florida, IFAS, Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS) document FE984
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Singerman, A. 2016. Cost of Production for Fresh Grapefruit in Indian River, 2014/15". University of Florida, IFAS, Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS) document FE984
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Singerman, A. and P. Useche 2016. Impact of Citrus Greening on Citrus Operations in Florida". University of Florida, IFAS, Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS) document FE983
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Singerman, A. and B. Page. 2016. What is the Economic Benefit of CHMAs?". University of Florida, IFAS, Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS) document FE982
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