PROTECTING THE CAPACITY FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: TERMINATED
• Funding Source: HATCH
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 1005033
• Project No.: CA-D-ESP-2244-H
• Project Start Date: Dec 5, 2014
• Project End Date: Sep 30, 2019

Project Director
Baskett, M.

Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS
410 MRAK HALL
DAVIS,CA 95616-8671

Performing Department
Environmental Science and Policy

Non Technical Summary
While climate change threatens California's biodiversity and species worldwide, species might be able to respond to climate change through moving to more suitable climates or adapting to conditions where they are. How to protect or promote the ability for species to cope with climate change is then a central challenge for conservation and natural resource management. Using mathematical models to compare alternative management strategies and outcomes, this project will investigate management approaches that might protect or affect species' ability to respond to climate change in three case studies. First, a controversial approach to management under climate change is to move species anticipated to be at risk to more suitable habitats such as higher latitudes or altitudes, called managed relocation. While this approach might enhance a movement response, it might impede an adaptive response within a location or interfere with response of another interacting species. Therefore, this project will evaluate the risks and trade-offs inherent to managed relocation to determine the approach and knowledge necessary to implement a managed relocation program that reduces overall extinction risk under climate change. Second, salmon hatchery practices such as trucking fish can increase short-term returns but degrade the diversity of fish across streams that underlies the ability for the multi-stream complex to adapt to changing ocean conditions. This project will evaluate this trade-off between short-term returns and long-term variability and persistence with a bioeconomic model that will indicate optimal management strategy. Third, ocean acidification (OA) from CO2 emissions can interfere with the ability of shellfish and corals to grow their calcium-based structures. This project will use a mechanistic model with a sensitivity analysis to determine the adaptive capacity to increasing OA, identify characteristics of at-risk species, and compare which aspects of a species' biology, which might depend on different local management actions, have the most influence on future adaptation.

Animal Health Component

0%

Research Effort Categories

Basic

50%

Applied

50%

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
136	0899	1070	100%

Knowledge Area
136 - Conservation of Biological Diversity;

Subject Of Investigation
0899 - Wildlife and natural fisheries, general/other;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology;

Keywords

climate change

biodiversity conservation

salmon

hatcheries

fisheries

ocean acidification

Goals / Objectives
The goal of this project is to develop a series of quantitative modeling frameworks in order to explore how conservation and natural resource management affects adaptive capacity to climate change. Within this over-arching goal, I will focus on three case studies: managed relocation (objectives #1-2), salmon hatcheries (objective #3), and OA adaptation (objective #4), with the following specific goals:1. Quantify whether, and under what conditions, managed relocation outside a species' range focused on an at-risk species might increase the extinction risk of competing species in a changing climate.2. Quantify what information and approach are necessary for the success of a managed relocation program focused on moving those with different genotypes within a species' range in a changing climate.3. Quantify the effect of salmon hatcheries on salmon response to changing ocean conditions across multiple streams.4. Quantify the adaptive capacity to ocean acidification in a mechanistic modeling framework for corals.

Project Methods
The central methodology will be mathematical models and computer simulations that connect evolutionary and population dynamics, i.e. follow changes in both gene frequencies and population sizes through time as the climate changes. For Objective #1, I will use models of competing species along a spatial gradient (e.g., changing temperature with changing latitude), where the gradient is changing in time (e.g., increasing temperature). Including additional movement for at-risk species as might occur through managed relocation program will determine the effect of managed relocation in one species on the extinction risk of other species. For Objective #2, I will use a model of a single species adapting to a spatial gradient that is changing in time. Incorporating additional movement as might occur through managed relocation with different approaches and given different types of uncertainty will determine how the approach to managed relocation affects the probability of species persistence. For Objective #3, we will use a coupled economic-ecological model of multiple salmon populations responding to changing ocean conditions, where a hatchery in one of the populations affects production and connectivity between populations. Analyzing net benefits under different hatchery practices will determine the optimal long-term management strategy given the effect of management choices on adaptation to environmental change. For Objective #4, we will extend an existing mechanistic model of coral response to increasing ocean acidification to account for evolutionary change. Sensitivity analysis of the model will determine which aspects of coral biology most have the greatest effect on future persistence.

Progress 12/05/14 to 09/30/19

Outputs
Target Audience:I conducted four major outreach activities to reach an array of targeted audiences in the past year, detailed below. These outreach activities are the cumulation of outreach throughout the five-year project project period, which involved continual conversations, collaborations, and meetings with relevant government agency scientists and managers regarding project activities and findings (e.g., NOAA Fisheries, California Department of Fish & Wildlife, Ocean Protection Council, USGS, US Forest Service), as well as co-organizing a symposium on "Managed Relocation Under a Changing Climate: An Interdisciplinary Perspective" on the UC Davis campus with a majority of the audience (63% of 145 attendees) from an array of governmental and non-governmental agencies. First, I participated in a series of briefings on two National Academy of Sciences reports on "Interventions to increase the resilience of coral reefs" commissioned by NOAA (relevant to Objectives #1-2 and #4). In addition to being an author on the two reports themselves, I participated in briefings for the second report to the White House Office of Science Technology & Policy, the Senate Commerce Committee (as NOAA is in the Department of Commerce), multiple House of Representative Committees, NOAA itself at their headquarters, and a public briefing to additional agencies, NGOs, stakeholders, and the press. Therefore, through these activities I reached an array of policy-makers, government agency managers, non-profits, and the general public. Second, for the three UC Davis/California Department of Fish & Wildlife (CDFW) co-mentored postdoctoral scholars focused on integrating data and models in the monitoring and adaptive management of California's marine protected areas (MPAs; areas with limited or no fishing) established under the California Marine Life Protection Act (relevant to the over-arching theme), I (1) coordinated feedback on CDFW's MPA Monitoring Action Plan as it reflected their research findings, and (2) coordinated a session where the postdocs presented their findings to a primarily government agency audience (CDFW and NOAA Fisheries) at the CalCOFI (California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations) annual meeting. Third, I co-organized and presented in a session on "Conservation paradigms & management strategies for a shifting future" in the "Species on the Move" conference in South Africa (relevant to Objectives #1-3), which had an international audience of government agency scientists, NGO scientists, and tribal representatives as well as academic scientists. Fourth, I developed a report for the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC; an international NGO) on "The capacity for marine protected areas to buffer climate change effects". This report provided NRDC with the most recent scientific evidence, consensus points, and unknowns regarding the role of MPAs as a tool in climate change adaptation as they discussed this topic at international climate changes meetings (relevant to the over-arching theme). Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Over its five-year duration, this project involved the training of four postdoctoral mentors (one in the past year) and three undergraduate students (two in the past year) as well as four papers led by PhD students (two in the past year). Trainees received practice in collaboration across academic and agency boundaries as well as substantial one-on-one mentorship in scientific methods, writing, presenting, and career development. All trainees had the opportunity to take a leadership role in the research they conducted. Trainees presented their work at an array of conferences, such as the Ecological Society of America annual meeting, American Fisheries Society annual meeting, and CalCOFI annual meeting. Two of the undergraduate trainees have or are currently developing their research on the project into independent honors theses. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Over its five-year duration, dissemination to key audiences have occurred through organizing symposia with mixed academic-agency audiences (e.g., "Managed Relocation Under a Changing Climate: An Interdisciplinary Perspective Symposium" held at the UC Davis campus), presentation to conferences with mixed academic-agency audiences (e.g., Species on the Move meeting, CalCOFI annual meeting, Ecological Society of America annual meeting), direct collaboration and conversations with agency managers and scientists (at NOAA Fisheries, US Forest Services, USGS, California Department of Fish & Wildlife), and government and public briefings. Please see "Target audience" for further details. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? For Objectives #1-2 on moving individuals or species to assist their response to climate change ("managed relocation"), a postdoctoral scholar in my lab (Dr. Greg Backus) and I finalized and wrote up results on how species interactions affect the efficacy and risks of such management actions. Specifically, we finalized two publications for submission. The first synthesizes how a structured decision-making approach can balance uncertainty with action in managed relocation. The second uses a model to identify which types of species, including those with unanticipated characteristics such as strong poleward competition, were more or less likely to benefit from managed relocation. In addition, we developed new simulations to explore how the benefits and risks of managed relocation compare to alternate management approaches, and we developed a set of models of managed relocation applied to the Sierra Nevada forest system, with involvement of undergraduate researchers. For Objectives #1-2 (managed relocation) and #4 (concerning coral adaptation to ocean acidification), I contributed to two relevant National Academies of Sciences reports on "Interventions to increase the resilience of coral reefs". For the first report, a synthesis of the state of the science of each intervention in the context of coral reef systems, I led the chapter on managed relocation. For the second report, on a decision framework for implementing interventions, I led the chapter that illustrated the decision approach and tools using an example dynamical model. These activities during the past year are in addition to previously-reported results and products regarding of coral reef response to future climate change (Fabina et al 2014, Edmunds et al 2015). For Objective #3 concerning the sustainable management of salmon hatcheries and aquaculture yielded two central publications. First, previously reported, was Dedrick & Baskett (2018), which quantifies how trucking practices in salmon hatcheries can explain a loss in diversity and increase in variability (given variable ocean conditions) among wild salmon populations in different streams, as observed in California's Central Valley fall-run Chinook salmon. Second, published in the past year, was Yang et al (2019), which shows that constant low-level escapees from domesticated environments (e.g., salmon aquaculture) can have greater fitness effects than large spikes for a wide array of possible aquaculture fish and model structures. This result is important because the current management and enforcement focus of aquaculture escapees is typically on rare, larger spikes given their size. In addition to these central publications, my collaborators and I used the modeling framework from Objective #3 in a novel context to inform new management questions in Xia et al (2019, a student-led paper): captivity breeding mosquitoes such that they are less likely to carry disease, and then releasing these mosquitoes into the wild to reduce disease incidence. Here the goal is the opposite, that domestication selection does (rather than does not) spread to the wild. We identified release amounts and strategies that would be most effective at achieving this goal. Further relevant to Objectives #2-3, I mentored a student-led paper (Ashander et al 2019) on the capacity for short-term captive breeding to support the ability for ecological populations to adapt to climate change. In addition, I continued work on an array of projects relevant to the design, monitoring, and adaptive management of marine protected areas (relevant to the over-arching goal of the project). In Baker-Merdard et al (2019), we provided an example of how, when designating MPA locations, re-considering areas with high fishing as areas most likely to increase fishery yield through spillover (as opposed to the traditional approach of avoiding them to avoid costs of fishery displacement) can alter optimal network design. In Kaplan et al (2019), we developed the anticipated response time frame, amount, and detectability to MPA establishment for an array of harvested fish and metrics in order to inform monitoring and adaptive management decisions (e.g., what species and metrics to monitor, when to evaluate efficacy). These accomplishments in the past year are in addition to an number of previously-reported results and products informing the management of marine protected areas and sustainable fisheries in California and beyond (Essington et al 2018, White et al 2017, Aalto et al 2017, Essington et al 2015, Barnett et al 2015).

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Baker-Medard, M., T.F. Allnutt, M.L. Baskett, R.A. Watson, E. Lagabrielle, and C. Kremen. Rethinking Spatial Costs and Benefits of Fisheries in Marine Conservation. Ocean and Coastal Management, 178: 104824.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: J. Ashander, L.C. Thompson, J.N. Sanchirico, and M.L. Baskett. Optimal investment to enable evolutionary rescue. Theoretical Ecology, 12(2): 165177.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: K.A. Kaplan, L. Yamane, L.W. Botsford, M.L. Baskett, A. Hastings, S. Worden, J.W. White. Setting expected timelines of fished population recovery for the adaptive management of a marine protected area network. Ecological Applications, 29(6): e01949.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: S. Xia, M.L. Baskett, and J.R. Powell. Quantifying the efficacy of genetic shifting in control of mosquito-borne diseases. Evolutionary Applications, 12(8): 15521568.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: Yang, L., M.L. Baskett, and R.S. Waples. Life history and temporal variability of escape events interactively determine the fitness consequences of aquaculture escapees on wild populations. Theoretical Population Biology, 129: 93-102.
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. A Research Review of Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs.
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs.

Progress 10/01/17 to 09/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience:The primary target audience for this project is government agency managers, who I reached in a number of ways. First, I co-organized and presented in a symposium entitled "Managed Relocation Under a Changing Climate: An Interdisciplinary Perspective Symposium", co-sponsored by UC Davis's Coastal and Marine Sciences Institute and the Delta Science Program (a multi-agency consortium focused on the California Bay-Delta region). The 145 attendees comprised of a mixed academic (37%) and agency (63%: a mix of local, state, and federal governmental and non-governmental agencies) audience. Directly after the larger symposium, I hosted a smaller, more targeted workshop on managed relocation with representatives from multiple government agencies (US Forest Service, NOAA Fisheries, USGS, Australian Institute of Marine Science) on December 5-7, 2017 to discuss modeling approaches for Objectives #1-2. This workshop helped elucidate management questions and decisions-making processes to ensure management relevancy of model structures and analyses. Further relevant to Objectives #1-2 as well as Objective #4, in February 2018 I began participation in a National Academy of Science committee on "Interventions to increase the resilience of coral reefs" commissioned by NOAA (ongoing through 2019). This included participation in multiple meetings with agency (e.g., NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Division, Hawaii Division of Aquatic Resources) presentations on management needs in coral reef systems to ensure relevancy of our committee reports. Two additional efforts reached the target audiences in connection to the over-arching goal and theme of the project. First, I continued my collaboration with the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) to co-mentor a set of postdoctoral scholars (funded by the California Ocean Protection Council) focused on integrating data and models in the monitoring and adaptive management of California's marine protected areas (areas with limited or no fishing) established under the California Marine Life Protection Act. This collaboration included weekly conversations with all UC Davis and CDFW participants on how the models developed can inform the CDFW's Monitoring Action Plan that was in development during the review period. Second, I participated in a roundtable convened by COMASS (a boundary organization focused on scientific communication) on "Fishing for solutions in a changing ocean", which included multiple governmental and non-governmental agency participants (e.g., Environmental Defense Fund, National Resources Defense Council, NOAA Fisheries and Fisheries Management Councils). Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Training activities focused on three postdoctoral scholars (Drs. Lauren Yamane, Katie Kaplan, and Nick Perkins) co-mentored as part of the CDFW collaboration on the monitoring and adaptive management of California's marine protected areas (over-arching goals) as well as an NSF-funded postdoc focused on Objective #1 on moving species to assist their response to climate change (Dr. Greg Backus). Training activities for all postdoctoral scholars, achieved through one-on-one work with PI Baskett (among other co-mentors for the CDFW postdocs), included (a) development of model building and simulation skills in new modeling frameworks, (b) development of communication skills for through feedback on presentations, and (c) development of scientific writing skills through feedback on writing of prelimiary results. In addition, Dr. Backus's participation and leadership role in the above-mentioned workshop provided experience in conducting and leading collaborations that bring together academic and government agency scientists. Finally, for career development, PI Baskett organized a series of lab meetings around reading the papers by and discussing seven candidates interviewing for two different faculty positions at UC Davis relevant to the lab group; discussion topics included what makes a successful research program, application, seminar, and interview for a career in academia. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?For Objectives #1-2 on moving individuals or species to assist their response to climate change, as mentioned under "Target Audience" above, I was a co-organizer of a symposium entitled "Managed Relocation Under a Changing Climate: An Interdisciplinary Perspective Symposium" that took place on December 4th, 2017. The central goals of the symposium were to (1) inform scientists on the decision-making process for translocations, (2) inform managers on the latest decision-support tools and related information emerging from science, and (3) promote an exchange of information among marine, freshwater, and terrestrial scientists and managers on decision-making approaches and recent scientific advancements. In addition to acting as co-organizer to design and plan the symposium, I presented a synthesis perspective and moderated break-out discussions, and the postdoctoral scholar on the project (Dr. Backus) presented a poster on preliminary project results. Overall, this symposium facilitated academia-agency and cross-system communication on the central topic of objectives 1-2: managed relocation. Conference presentations and departmental seminars that disseminated results relevant to this project included (1) an invited keynote presentation to the Midwest Mathematical Biology Conference (La Crosse, WI, 5/19/18) on the results from Objective #3, (2) an invited departmental seminar in the University of the Pacific Geological and Environmental Sciences seminar series (Stockton, CA, 5/27/18) on the results from Objective #4, and (3) a presentation by Dr. Backus at the Ecological Society of America annual meeting (New Orleans, LA, 8/7/18) on the results from Objective #1. Finally, I served on a working group convened by the Ocean Protection Council that developed a report on scientific guidance for ocean restoration methods in California, relevant to the over-arching goal and theme of the project (Ambrose et al 2018 limited distribution product listed below). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?For Objective #1, Dr. Backus and I will finalize results of the first model analysis of the risks and benefits of moving species in response to climate change to begin writeup for publication. In addition, Dr. Backus and I will begin developing models that compare moving species to alternative management actions and apply the genetic structure to specific systems. For objective #2, I will develop a modeling framework for coral reefs on moving locally-adapted genotypes within populations to promote response to climate change. For Objective #3, I will finalize the publication of two products that are currently in review, one on how traits such as generation time and reproductive rate affect the unintended fitness consequences of aquaculture on wild populations, and one on the optimal hatchery policy given its potential effects on overall salmon diversity as demonstrated in Dedrick & Baskett (2018). For objective #4, I will work with a collaborator at the University of Hawaii to extend the modeling framework (currently applied to 1 coral species) to 11 different coral species to understanding the role of different aspects of coral biology in adaptive capacity to ocean acidification. For the collaboration with CDFW on the monitoring and adaptive management of California's marine reserves, the next steps are to finalize the results to be used in CDFW's Monitoring Action Plan and begin writing for publication in peer-reviewed journals.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? The primary accomplishments for Objectives #1-2 on moving individuals or species to assist their response to climate change were running simulations and arriving at preliminary results regarding how species interactions affect the efficacy and risks of such management actions, led by a postdoctoral scholar in my lab (Dr. Greg Backus). To date we have found that moving species can increase persistence likelihood and overall community diversity when certainty is high, and we identified the cases where risks outweighed benefits when certainty is low. The primary accomplishment on Objective #3 concerning the sustainable management of salmon hatcheries was finalizing the publication listed above, Dedrick & Baskett (2018), which quantifies how trucking practices in salmon hatcheries can explain a loss in diversity and increase in variability (given variable ocean conditions) among wild salmon populations in different streams, as observed in California's Central Valley fall-run Chinook salmon. For the above-mentioned partnership with CDFW on marine protected area (MPA) monitoring and adaptive management, which falls under the over-arching goal of this project, the primary accomplishments were analyze models to quantify the expected timeline of responses to MPAs for different potential indicator metrics and species as well as to elucidate the characteristics (in terms of monitoring sampling design, fish biology, and fishery history) that determine the feasibility of detecting and accurately predicting an MPA response. Note also completion of the above-listed publication (Essington et al 2018) that quantifies the role of fishing history and species interactions in determining optimal fishery management, which again falls under the project's over-arching goals of understanding drivers of ecosystem response to environmental change.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Essington, T. E., Sanchirico, J. N., & Baskett, M. L. (2018). Economic value of ecological information in ecosystem-based natural resource management depends on exploitation history. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 201716858.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Dedrick, A. G., & Baskett, M. L. (2018). Integrating Genetic and Demographic Effects of Connectivity on Population Stability: The Case of Hatchery Trucking in Salmon. The American Naturalist, 192(2), E62⿿E80.
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Ambrose, R., Raimondi, P., Anderson, S., Baskett, M., Caselle, J., Carr, M., Edwards, C., Kent, M., Nickols, K., Ramanujam, E., Reyns, N., and Stier, A. (California Ocean Protection Council Science Advisory Team Working Group). Ocean Restoration Methods: Scientific Guidance for Once-Through Cooling Mitigation Policy. California Ocean Science Trust, Oakland, CA. June 2018.

Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:The primary target audience for this project is government agency managers. For Objectives #1-2 on moving individuals or species to assist their response to climate change, to ensure project relevance to management decision, I had multiple conversations concerning model development with collaborators at agencies such as the US Forest Service (Dr. Hugh Safford) and the Australian Institute of Marine Science (Dr. Madeleine van Oppen). For Objective #3 concerning the sustainable management of salmon hatcheries, I had continued conversations with collaborators at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center (Dr. Robin Waples) and the Southwest Fisheries Science Center (Dr. Satterthwaite) as we developed results for publication. In addition, in response to a funding opportunity, I helped develop a new collaborative program with the Ocean Protection Council (OPC) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) to integrate data and models in the monitoring of California's marine protected areas (areas with limited or no fishing) established under the California Marine Life Protection Act, including the evaluation of the potential role of marine reserves in buffering population responses to environmental variability (the over-arching objective of this project). Specifically, in October 2016 I served as chair of a search committee, with membership from UC Davis, CDFW, and OPC, for three postdoctoral scholars to be co-mentored by CDFW managers and UC Davis faculty on the monitoring and adaptive management of California's marine protected areas. The postdoctoral began in February 2017, and we have held weekly conversations with the postdocs and participating CDFW managers on the postdocs' research activities. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The accomplishments on Objective #3 included mentoring two students, one PhD student (Alison Dedrick) and one undergraduate student (Luojun Yang), in writing scientific papers for publication for a mixed scientific and management audience. The new postdoctoral scholar program on the monitoring and adaptive management of California's marine protected areas involves co-mentoring three postdoctoral scholars (for two of which, Lauren Yamane and Katie Kaplan, I have taken a particularly active mentorship role) in new quantitative approaches and in conducting management-relevant research. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Four conference presentations or departmental seminars included dissemination of results relevant to this project: (1) a presentation to the Western Society of Naturalists Annual Meeting (Monterey, CA; 11/13/16) on the results for Objective #4 described in the previous annual report, (2) an invited departmental seminar at San Diego State University (5/1/17) on the results from Objective #3, (3) an invited keynote presentation at the Society for Mathematical Biology Annual Meeting (Salt Lake City, UT; 7/19/17) that included results for Objective #4, and (4) a presentation at the Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting (Portland, OR; 8/7/17) of a literature review and synthesis focused on Objectives #1-2. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The next steps for Objectives #1-2 on moving individuals or species to assist their response to climate change will be conducting model analyses and developing model extensions applied to a variety of systems (coral reefs, forests, salmonids). In order to have model extensions informed by the appropriate agency managers, I will coordinate a symposium and workshop on the project topic with mixed agency and academic attendance and participation. The next steps for Objective #3 on sustainable management of salmon hatcheries will be to submit the above-described manuscripts for publication. The next steps for Objective #4 on the capacity for corals reefs to respond to increase ocean acidification will be to finalize the model analysis. The next steps for the new project on the monitoring and adaptive management of California's marine protected areas will be the integrated data-model analysis and application of this analysis to inform CDFW's upcoming Marine Protected Area Monitoring Action Plan.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? The primary accomplishments for Objectives #1-2 on moving individuals or species to assist their response to climate change are (1) furthering model development and analysis plans, and (2) hiring a postdoctoral scholar who will focus on the project with the National Science Foundation funding awarded in March 2017 (the postdoctoral scholar's start date was October 1, 2017). The primary accomplishments for Objective #3 concerning the sustainable management of salmon hatcheries are writing manuscript based on the results reported in the previous annual report, specifically (1) a manuscript on how trucking practices in salmon hatcheries can explain a loss in diversity and increase in variability (given variable ocean conditions) among wild salmon populations in different streams, as observed in California's Central Valley fall-run Chinook salmon, and (2) a manuscript on how traits such as generation time and reproductive rate affect the unintended fitness consequences of aquaculture on wild populations. For the marine protected area monitoring and adaptive management research activities that fall under the over-arching goal of this project as described above, the primary accomplishments were to publish two manuscripts (listed under products), launch the postdoctoral scholar program with co-mentorship between UCD and CDFW, and guide the postdoctoral scholars in model development. The two published manuscripts (1) develop a new data-model integration method for providing local-scale predictions on when and how much formerly-harvested fish populations are expected to respond to protection, and (2) indicate the conditions when predation might affect expected responses to marine protected areas. Developing expectations for responses to marine protected areas is essential to adaptive management by allowing assessment whether protected areas are working as expected, shortfalls in which indicate whether any adjustments in management might be necessary. The postdoctoral scholars are in the process of applying the newly developed method to California's marine protected areas.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: White, J.W., K.J. Nickols, D. Malone, M.H. Carr, R.M. Starr, F. Cordoleani, M.L. Baskett, A. Hastings, L.W. Botsford. 2017. Models for Adaptive Management: Methods for Fitting State-Space Integral Projection Models to Time Series Data. Ecological Applications, 26(8): 2675-2692.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Aalto, E.A. and M.L. Baskett. 2017. Post-harvest recovery dynamics depend on predator specialization in size-selective fisheries. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 564: 127-143.

Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:The primary target audience for this project is government agency managers. Outreach efforts to this audience during the reporting period focused primarily on Objective #3 concerning the sustainable management of salmon hatcheries. First, I and collaborators coordinated a presentation and extended meeting at the NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center (12/8/15). Second, as part of my 2015-2016 sabbatical, I was partly in residence at the NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center during the 2016 spring quarter (3/28/16-6/17/16, and partly at the University of Washington) to work in collaboration with Dr. Robin Waples. During this period, we coordinated a half-day workshop with a broader audience of both NOAA Fisheries and US Fish & Wildlife managers on model development and parameterization for our next research efforts (5/18/16). In addition, in the development of grant proposals for Objectives #1-2 on moving individuals or species to assist their response to climate change (see Accomplishments), I connected and coordinated with government agency managers at NOAA Fisheries, USGS, US Forest Service, and the Australian Institute of Marine Science throughout the reporting period. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The accomplishments on Objective #3 include training in the mathematics and computational methodologies of new quantitative approaches applied to ecological systems for two students: (1) a UCD graduate student (Allison Dedrick, Graduate Group in Ecology, ongoing from the previous reporting period), and (2) an undergraduate exchange student at UC Davis (Luojun Yang, starting June 2016). The undergraduate exchange student will be using her component of this research as an honors thesis at her home institution. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?In addition to the workshops noted under Target Audience, eight invited presentations included dissemination of results relevant to this project: (1) a keynote address at the joint International Stock Enhancement and Sea Ranching Symposium and Australian Society for Fish Biology Conference in Sydney, Australia (10/12/15), which included a mixed academic and management audience, (2) a departmental seminar at the School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia (10/20/15), (3) a departmental seminar at the School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (10/22/15), (4) a departmental seminar at the Department of Wildlife, Fisheries & Conservation, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA (11/20/15), (5) a departmental seminar at the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO (1/22/16), (6-7) two departmental seminars at the School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, one to the quantitative group on Objective #3 (4/8/16) and one to the larger school on Objective #4 (5/26/16), and (8) a symposium presentation at the Joint Meeting of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, New Orleans, LA (7/8/16). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The next steps for Objectives #1-2 on moving individuals or species to assist their response to climate change will be to finalize the model structures and run preliminary analyses. The next steps for Objective #3 on sustainable management of salmon hatcheries will be to finalize the manuscript for the results for California hatcheries, parameterize the model and run simulations for the study of Oregon hatcheries, and begin writing a manuscript for the aquaculture results. The next steps for Objective #4 on the capacity for corals reefs to respond to increase ocean acidification will be to finalize the functional sensitivity analysis of the model.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? The primary accomplishments for Objectives #1-2 on moving individuals or species to assist their response to climate change are (a) developing preliminary modeling frameworks for each objective, (b) developing a network of government agency collaborators for model application to study systems and their management, and (c) submitting two grant proposals (one to the James S. McDonnell Foundation on 3/17/16, one to the National Science Foundation: pre-proposal submitted 1/25/16 and full proposal submitted 8/2/16), of which one (the NSF) has been recommended for funding. The primary accomplishments for Objective #3 concerning the sustainable management of salmon hatcheries are the finalization of model results on California salmon hatcheries and the development of new modeling frameworks to be applied to Oregon salmon hatcheries and salmon aquaculture generally. For California salmon hatcheries, a key finding was that the hatchery practice of trucking is sufficient to explain a loss in diversity and increase in variability (given variable ocean conditions) among wild salmon populations in different streams, and that a loss of genetic diversity contributes more to increased population variability than demographic synchrony. The primary accomplishments for Objective #4 on the capacity for corals reefs to respond to increased ocean acidification are the finalization of the central model results, which indicate that evolution within the calcification process of investment in growth versus skeletal density will likely have little effect on future coral trajectories, but evolution of larger life-history tradeoffs such as between growth and survivorship has the potential to affect future coral persistence. Finally, the publications listed in this report represent ongoing work relevant to the design and monitoring of no-take marine reserves such as those established under the California Marine Life Protection Act, including the evaluation of the potential role of marine reserves in buffering population responses to environmental variability (the over-arching objective of this project).

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Takashina, N. and M.L. Baskett. 2016. Determining the appropriate spatial scale of fishery management. Journal of Theoretical Biology 390:14-22.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Barnett, L.A.K. and M.L. Baskett. 2015. Marine reserves can enhance ecological resilience. Ecology Letters 18(12):1301-1310.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Baskett, M.L. and L.A.K. Barnett. 2015. The ecological and evolutionary consequences of marine reserves. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 46:49-73.

Progress 12/05/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:The primary target audience for this project is government agency managers. Outreach efforts to this audience during the reporting period included extended meetings with two different NOAA Fisheries managers, Robin Waples at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center (visited UC Davis on 4/27/15) and Will Satterthwaite at the Southwest Fisheries Science Center (visited UC Davis on 5/18/15), in order to insure that research activities connect to management needs. These meetings, and subsequent follow-up conversations, were focused on Objective #3 concerning the sustainable management of California salmon hatcheries. Finally, I was on the organizational committee for a UC Davis-hosted workshop on emerging science relevant to the sustainable management of California salmon, with a mixed academic and management audience (many attendees from NOAA Fisheries, US Fish and Wildlife, and California Fish and Wildlife), on 9/10/15. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The accomplishments on Objective #3 included training a UCD graduate student (Allison Dedrick, Graduate Group in Ecology) in the mathematics and computational methodologies of new quantitative approaches. In addition, two of the publications are UCD graduate-student led papers (Nicholas Fabina, Graduate Group in Population Biology; Lewis Barnett, Graduate Group in Ecology) where I mentored students in mathematical modeling and writing skills. Finally, when Will Satterthwaite visited UC Davis to discuss the modeling efforts for Objective #3 (see Target Audience), we gave a joint lecture on ecosystem-based fisheries management to ECL208: Conservation Ecology (core course for the Graduate Group in Ecology Area of Emphasis in Conservation Ecology), which provided a unique opportunity for students to learn how science is used in the management decision-making process. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Because much of the research is still in the development stage, dissemination of preliminary findings has primarily been through personal conversations with relevant collaborators at government agencies (see Target Audience). In addition, dissemination to the academic community has occurred through seminars at Stanford University (1/14/15) and California State University Chico (4/14/15). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The next period will focus on developing the modeling framework for Objectives #1-2: moving individuals or species to assist their response to climate change. Efforts on Objectives #1-2 will include applying to multiple sources of funding to support additional personnel (graduate student and postdoc trainees) towards these objectives. In addition, I will work with collaborators to arrive at results for Objectives #3-4 on salmon hatcheries management and coral reef adaptation to climate change.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? The primary focus during the review period was on Objective #3: sustainable salmon hatcheries management given environmental change. Specifically, I worked with collaborators to develop, parameterize, and begin analysis on the core model that simulates how hatchery policy affects the genetic diversity within and across individual populations in the Central Valley fall-run Chinook salmon stock complex and how that genetic diversity affects the overall stock complex response to variable and changing ocean conditions. In addition, I furthered Objective #4: informing management to protect the capacity for corals reefs to respond to future climate change. Specifically, I helped with collaborative efforts that (1) used model analysis to inform a better understanding of how different aspects of climate change-driven disturbance affect coral reefs (Fabina et al. 2015), and (2) provided a visioning framework for future integration of data and modeling research that can better quantify expectations for coral adaptive capacity to environmental change and its drivers (Edmunds et al. 2014). It is exactly this type of framework that I and my collaborator are using in our current modeling efforts that account for ocean acidification. Finally, I assisted with collaborative efforts relevant to the over-arching project theme in terms of informing sustainable fisheries management given variable and changing ocean conditions (Essington et al. 2015, Barnett et al. 2015). All accomplishments represent a change in knowledge.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Fabina, N.S., M.L. Baskett, and K. Gross. 2015. The differential effects of increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events on coral populations. Ecological Applications 25(6):15341545.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Essington, T.E., M.L. Baskett, J.N. Sanchirico, and C. Walters. 2015. A novel model of predator prey interactions reveals the sensitivity of forage fish - piscivore fishery trade-offs to ecological conditions. ICES Journal of Marine Science 72(5):13491358.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Barnett, L.A.K., M.L. Baskett, L.W. Botsford. 2015. Quantifying the potential for marine reserves or harvest reductions to buffer temporal mismatches caused by climate change. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 72(3):376-389.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Edmunds, P.J., S.C. Burgess, H.M. Putnam, M.L. Baskett, L. Bramanti, N.S. Fabina, X. Han, M.P. Lesser, J.S. Madin, C.B. Wall, D.M. Yost, R.D. Gates. 2014. Evaluating the causal basis of ecological success within the Scleractinia: an Integral Projection Model approach. Marine Biology 161(12):2719-2734.