Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/17
Outputs
Target Audience:Efforts that reached primarily the scientific community: Parikh, GL, JS Forbey, B Robb, RO Peterson, LM Vucetich, JA Vucetich. The influence of plant defensive chemicals, diet composition, and winter severity on the nutritional condition of a free-ranging, generalist herbivore. Oikos. [2016 doi:10.1111/oik.03359] Henderson, JJ. Vucetich JA. 2016. Microhistology of Plant Fragments. The Microscope 64(2):61-68. Hedrick P, M Kardos, R Peterson, J Vucetich. 2016. Genomic Variation of Inbreeding and Ancestry in the Remaining Two Isle Royale Wolves. Journal of Heredity (doi:10.1093/jhered/esw083) Presentation at Oxford University, England - 6 May 2016 - Isle Royale wolves & moose Efforts that reached primarily policy makers: NPS panel on Isle Royale wolf reintroduction - organized by Matthew E. Gompper, School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri - May-June 2016 The article (The Importance of Restoring Wolf Predation on Isle Royale - MTU Unscripted - 19 April 2016) is being sent by other wolf scientists to the Colorado Truth About Wolves team (Norm Bishop, Mike Phillips) Efforts that reached primarily the general public: J A Vucetich. 2016. Introducing the Wolf: Should humans intervene when climate change threatens an island's ecology? Natural History July/August 2016: 20-23. Presentation at Michigan Technological University, Houghton - 6 May 2016 - Isle Royale wolves & moose - 4 Aug 2016. Presentation at University of AZ, Tucson - The Wolves and Moose of Isle Royale: Where Science and Philosophy Meet - 27 April 2016. Presentation at the Detroit Zoo, MI - Wolves & Moose of Isle Royale -6 April 2017. Presentation in Copper Harbor, MI - 6 May 2016 - Isle Royale wolves & moose - 24 July 2016. Wolves and Ravens, Science and Ethics: Traditional Ecological Knowledge Meets Long-Term Ecological Research, Michael P. Nelson and John A. Vucetich. In Keepers of the Green World: Traditional Ecological Knowledge & Sustainability, Edited by Melissa K. Nelson and Dan Shilling, Submission to New Directions in Sustainability and Society, Cambridge University Press 2017. Ecological Studies of Wolves on Isle Royale, 2015-2016 Annual Report Ecological Studies of Wolves on Isle Royale, 2016-2016 Annual Report The annual reports led to extensive media coverage. Our research website, Wolves and Moose of Isle Royale, reaches over 10,000 people annually. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?In the past year, two PhD students (Andrew Von Duyke and John Henderson) and one MS student (Dan Melody) worked on Isle Royale wolf-moose research. Summer 2017 ground-based field work provided valuable experience and training for undergraduate students: L. Kwasnoski, R. Jensen, J. Cupp, B. Wright. Undergraduate students J. Lazzari, T. Lammers, B. Howland, are learning laboratory and data management techniques. Postdoctoral researcher Sarah Hoy is working to transform field insights from Yellowstone and Isle Royale into scientific publications. During the summer of 2017, over 30 members of the general public participated in citizen science by assisting with field work, many of whom are teachers or other educators, bringing the experience into classrooms. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Data and results from this long-term research are published in peer-reviewed journals, popular articles for the general public,and through our website (www.isleroyalewolf.org). This work is also covered extensively by the popular media. Presentations at scientific meetings, university seminars, presentations to the general public, our website and annual report, and assistance to educators. Results have also been covered extensively by the media. (Please see Target Audience section) What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Between January 2016 and January 2017, the wolf population continued to be comprised of just two wolves. The wolves are very likely a single male-female pair and closely related to one another. The wolf population is also almost certainly headed for extinction and wolf predation has been effectively absent as an ecological process for the past six years. Moose abundance increased over the past year and is estimated to be 1600 moose. In the absence of predation, moose abundance may double over the next 3-4 years. If that happens, it will be the largest number of moose ever observed during the six decade history of the wolf-moose project. A primary concern as wolf predation dwindled was that a moose population uncontrolled by predation might do irreparable harm to the vegetation community which supports moose. While this is a large and complicated topic, we can glean some interesting insights by examining recent interactions between moose and vegetation, both terrestrial and aquatic. The important context is that during 2004-2009 wolf predation was the most intensive ever documented at Isle Royale, when wolves were killing 15-20% of the moose each year. That resurgence in predation followed the genetic renewal that began in 1997 when one male immigrant arrived and became a breeding male. There are two remarkable developments among plants, which may be attributed to strong top-down limitation of moose density by wolf predation - a trophic cascade, in this case preceded by genetic rescue caused by the arrival of a single, immigrant wolf. Balsam fir is the primary food for moose on Isle Royale in winter. When the original land survey was completed in 1848, before moose were present. balsam fir was the dominant tree on Isle Royale. This tree species declined following fires in the 19th century which set back forest succession, and in the 20th century more fires, spruce budworm, and finally moose browsing all reduced balsam fir again. Status of the species on the two ends of Isle Royale is dramatically different, with fir relatively stable on the east end but steadily diminishing on the west end, where it has been in a century-long decline following colonization by moose. The deep soils on the west end are associated with a greater presence of yellow birch and maple, and fir is unable to regenerate adequately as new sprouts are heavily browsed in winter by moose. The only tree species that grows unimpeded by moose on the west end is spruce, and forest stands are reverting to a moose-spruce savannah dominated by scattered spruce and invasive grasses. Over one-third of west-end forest stands are already converted or show evidence of "breaking up" (see Rotter MC and AJ Reburtus. 2015. Botany 93:75-90). All the more remarkable, then, is recent evidence that stunted balsam fir stems, browsed for decades and less than one meter tall, had started to grow in the past decade prior to 2012 when the moose population began to increase rapidly. These short fir trees, some established as seedlings as long as 40-50 years ago, now represent the final cohort of short fir that could grow into seed-bearing trees of the future. This is the species' last chance because the parent trees are reaching maximum life-spans and most have died and fallen over in the past 25 years. As the moose population is presently growing rapidly, there is a race on with an uncertain outcome - will sufficient short fir escape moose browsing and grow into reproducing trees, or will they suffer the common fate of west-end fir regeneration in the past century -- dying without reproducing?
Publications
- Type:
Book Chapters
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Wolves and Ravens, Science and Ethics: Traditional Ecological Knowledge Meets Long-Term Ecological Research, Michael P. Nelson and John A. Vucetich. In Keepers of the Green World: Traditional Ecological Knowledge & Sustainability, Edited by Melissa K. Nelson and Dan Shilling, Submission to New Directions in Sustainability and Society, Cambridge University Press 2017
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
J A Vucetich. 2016. Introducing the Wolf: Should humans intervene when climate change threatens an islands ecology? Natural History July/August 2016: 20-23
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Hedrick P, M Kardos, R Peterson, J Vucetich. 2016. Genomic Variation of Inbreeding and Ancestry in the Remaining Two Isle Royale Wolves. Journal of Heredity (doi:10.1093/jhered/esw083)
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
JJ.Henderson,JA Vucetich, 2016. Microhistology of Plant Fragments. The Microscope 64(2):61-68.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Parikh, GL, JS Forbey, B Robb, RO Peterson, LM Vucetich, JA Vucetich.2016. The influence of plant defensive chemicals, diet composition, and winter severity on the nutritional condition of a free-ranging, generalist herbivore. Oikos. [2016 doi:10.1111/oik.03359]
|
Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16
Outputs
Target Audience:Efforts that reached primarily the scientific community: Parikh, GL, JS Forbey, B Robb, RO Peterson, LM Vucetich, JA Vucetich. 2016. The influence of plant defensive chemicals, diet composition, and winter severity on the nutritional condition of a free-ranging, generalist herbivore. Oikos. doi:10.1111/oik.03359 Efforts that reached primarily policy makers: NPS panel on Isle Royale wolf reintroduction - organized by Matthew E. Gompper, School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri - May-June 2016 Efforts that reached primarily the general public: J A Vucetich. 2016. Introducing the Wolf: Should humans intervene when climate change threatens an island's ecology? Natural History July/August 2016: 20-23. Vucetich JA, RO Peterson. 2016. The wolves of Isle Royale, 2015-16 Annual Report. Michigan Tech University. Houghton, MI Isle Royale wolf-moose research received extensive media coverage in the past year. Changes/Problems:No major changes are anticipated. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?In the past year, two PhD students (Andrew Von Duyke and John Henderson) and two MS students (Grace Parikh and Dan Melody) worked on Isle Royale wolf-moose research. Summer 2016 ground-based field work provided valuable experience and training for undergraduate students Andrew Kalember, Joe Lazzari and Chelsea Merriman. Kalember and Lazzare are also learning laboratory and data management techniques. Postdoctoral researcher Sarah Hoy is working to transform field insights from Yellowstone and Isle Royale into scientific publications. During the summer of 2015, over 30 members of the general public participated in citizen science by assisting with field work, many of whom are teachters or other educators, bringing the experiene into classrooms How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Data and results from this long-term research are published in peer-reviewed journals, popular articles for the general public,and through our website (www.isleroyalewolf.org). This work is also covered extensively by the popular media. Presentations at scientific meetings, university seminars, presentations to the general public, our webiste and annual report, and assistance to educators. Results have also been covered extensively by the media. (Please see Target Audience section for details.) What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?No major changes are anticipated. We plan to continue with summer and winter field activities, laboratory analyses, and data analysis. We plan to publish results in peer-reviewed journals, present at scientific meetings, and report to the general public, as in the past.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Between January 2015 and January 2016, the wolf population decreased from 3 wolves to probably just 2 wolves. The moose population likely increased, but constraints on field operations prevent us from reliably saying by what amount. These changes are part of a longer trend. Since 2009 the wolf population has dropped by >90%. As a result of very low wolf abundance, each of the past five years has seen uniquely low rates of predation. In response, the moose population has been growing at a mean annual rate of 19% or more over the past five years. If that growth rate persists, the moose population will double in size over the next three to five years. The wolf population in 2016 likely consisted of a single male-female pair, closely related to one another. In the absence of new incoming wolves, the present wolf population of Isle Royale is almost certainly headed for extinction. During the winter study in 2016, when flying was severely curtailed about 50% by administrative order (to only 25 hours on eight days), no wolves were actually observed (only fresh tracks), and no kills were detected. During summer 2016 we did not detect any evidence of reproduction or hear howling of more than two wolves. Conservation scientists believe that predation -- the ecosystem function that wolves provide - is vital to the health of ecosystems inhabited by large herbivores such as moose. On Isle Royale, predation has been effectively nil for the past five years and is expected to remain so for the foreseeable future. The National Park Service has said that it is considering genetic rescue (among other alternative management options) as a means of mitigating this loss of predation. It is almost certainly too late to conduct genetic rescue. That is, a new wolf population would now have to be re-established if wolves are to remain an ecological force on Isle Royale. The 2016 moose survey began on February 6 and ended on February 17. We only counted moose on 3/4 of the plots due to administrative constraints. The survey resulted in an estimated abundance of 1300 moose. The 80% confidence intervals on this estimate are [1070, 1540], and the 90% confidence intervals are [960, 1690]. Last year, we estimated 1250 moose, with an 80% confidence interval of [1050, 1450]. Using the techniques described in the 2009-10 Annual Report, we calculated this year's estimate of moose abundance using a sightability factor (the probability of detecting a moose) of 71%. Of the moose that we observed on the census plots in 2016, 22% (of 139) were calves. This rate of recruitment is the second-highest ever recorded (Fig. 4). Recruitment rate is a useful predictor of moose population growth rate (see Fig. 11 of the 2012-2013 Annual Report). [The 2016 recruitment rate is associated with an expected growth rate of 0.15. If the moose population grew by 15%, the 2016 population estimate would be 1440 moose.] The recent multi-year increase in recruitment rate reversed a two-decade downward trend. The recent growth of the moose population is the strongest that has been observed in the project's history. That strong growth occurred even though two of the past four winters were severe (2012-13 and 2013-14). Absent significant predation, winter severity will be the primary limiting factor for the moose population. If the recent trend in growth continues for just three more years the moose population will approximate the level of the mid-1990s, just prior to the die-off in 1996. At that time the moose population had considerable impact on forest vegetation. Concerns remain that the upcoming increase in moose abundance will result in long-term damage to the health of Isle Royale's vegetative community (see 2013-14 Annual Report). In summer 2016, we conducted ground-based fieldwork from early May through mid-October. Rolf Peterson and John Vucetich directed that fieldwork with assistance from Carolyn Peterson and Leah Vucetich. Field work participants included undergraduate students Andrew Kalember, Joe Lazzari,Chelsea Merriman and grad student Dan Melody. Leah Vucetich also led a number of people working in our lab, especially Grace Parikh, Joe Lazzari, and Andrew Kalembar. Postdoctoral researcher Sarah Hoy is working hard to transform field insights from Yellowstone and Isle Royale into scientific publications. During the course of the year, many park staff and visitors contributed key observations and reports of wolf sightings and moose bones.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Parikh, GL, JS Forbey, B Robb, RO Peterson, LM Vucetich, JA Vucetich. 2016. The influence of plant defensive chemicals, diet composition, and winter severity on the nutritional condition of a free-ranging, generalist herbivore. Oikos. doi:10.1111/oik.03359
|
Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15
Outputs
Target Audience:Efforts that reached primarily the scientific community: Peterson RO, Vucetich JA, Bump JK, Smith DW. 2014. Trophic cascades in a multicausal world: Isle Royale and Yellowstone. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 45:325-345. Peterson RO, Killian M, Vucetich J, Vuceetich L. 2014. Joint Biomechanics and Bone Material Properties Relative to OA Risk in Wild Moose (Alces alces). Presented at the OARSI conference 30 April - 3 May 2015. Melody et al. 2015. The impact of dietary toxins on diet selection and nutritional condition of free-ranging moose. Poster presented at the ID chapter of TWS meeting, March 2015. Efforts that reached primarily policy makers: Our work prompted the Rewilding Institute and the Wildlands Network to send a letter to Jon Jarvis, Director of NPS, regarding management at Isle Royale National Park. The letter was signed by nearly 50 scientists. Extensive media coverage followed the letter. Our work prompted Michigan Senator Gary Peters to write a letter to Jon Jarvis, Director of NPS, regarding management at Isle Royale National Park. Extensive media coverage followed the letter. Efforts that reached primarily the general public: Seminar presented at Western Mich University - 27 March 2015 - The wolves and moose of Isle Royale: lessons from five decades of observation. Michigan State University Hanover Seminar - Depts of Forestry and Fisheries & Wildlife - Laws of nature, historical contingency, and the wolves and moose on Isle Royale - 24 March 2015. Seminar presented to the Medical Science Training Program - Roscommon, MI - 31 July-1 Aug 2015 - The wolves and moose of Isle Royale: lessons from five decades of observation Vucetich, JA. 2015. Winter Study Notes from the Field 2014-2015. 36 pages. ISBN-10: 1514808633 Ecological Studies of Wolves on Isle Royale, 2014-2015 Annual Report The annual report led to extensive media coverage. Our research website, Wolves and Moose of Isle Royale, reaches over 10,000 people annually. We facilitate the use of our research for educational purposes. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?In the past year, two PhD students (Andrew Von Duyke and John Henderson) and one MS student (Grace Parikh) worked on Isle Royale wolf-moose research. Summer 2015 ground-based field work provided valuable experience and training for undergraduate student, Andrew Kalember; Andrew is also learning laboratory and data management techniques. One post-grad (Nora Heikkinen) assisted with outreach. During the summer of 2015, over 30 members of the general public participated in citizen science by assisting with field work, many of whom are teachters or other educators, bringing the experiene into classrooms. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Data and results from this long-term research are published in peer-reviewed journals, popular articles for the general public, and through our website (www.isleroyalewolf.org). This work is also covered extensively by the popular media. presentations at scientific meetings, university seminars, presentations to the general public, our webiste and annual report, and assistance to educators. Results have also been covered extensively by the media. (Please see Target Audience section for details.) What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?No major changes are anticipated. We plan to continue with summer and winter field activities, laboratory analyses, and data analysis. We plan to publish results in peer-reviewed journals, present at scientific meetings, and report to the general public, as in the past.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
In 2015, the annual Winter Study extended from January 30 to March 5. John Vucetich, Rolf Peterson, and pilot Don E. Glaser participated in the entire study, assisted by Leah Vucetich, Molly McDevitt, and Kelsey Ward. Molly and Kelsey's efforts focused on collecting urine (yellow snow) and pellet samples to assess the nutritional condition of moose. Bob Glaser provided ground transportation on the mainland. U.S. Forest Service (USFS) pilots Pat Loe and Scott Miller flew supply flights to Isle Royale from Ely, Minnesota. Several National Park Service employees also attended a portion of Winter Study; they are Cory Process, Erin Haglund, Mark Romanski, Bill Route, and James Dahl. Analysis of samples collected during winter was completed during spring and summer. During the 2015 winter field season, we observed only one site where wolves killed a moose. This is the fewest observed kill sites in the project's 57-year history. Per capita kill rate is estimated from the number of moose killed and the number of days during which those kills were made. The wolves were first observed on February 14th and last observed on March 5th. It is plausible that the wolves killed and fed from one moose during the last week of that period. Their location and activities for the previous twelve days are unclear. In that time they may or may not have killed a moose. If the wolves killed one moose throughout that 19-day period, then the per capita kill rate is 0.53 moose per wolf per month, which is lower than expected, given the number of moose per wolf on Isle Royale. If the wolves killed two moose during this 19-day period, then the kill rate would be close to what is expected, given the number of moose per wolf. A lower than expected kill rate, if that is the case, may be a partial and proximate explanation for the sharp decline in wolf abundance. (Kill rate had also been lower than expected in two of the three previous years.) Again, if kill rate is lower than expected, then inbreeding depression is a likely explanation (see 2013-14 Annual Report for details). It is unlikely that lack of food is an explanation, given the extraordinarily high ratio of moose-to-wolves. The 2015 moose survey began on February 2nd and ended on February 19th. The survey resulted in an estimated abundance of 1250 moose. The 80% confidence intervals on this estimate are [1050, 1450], and the 90% confidence intervals are [950, 1580]. Moose density throughout Isle Royale was 2.3 moose/km2. Flying conditions for the count were good (i.e., not too windy). Using the techniques described in the 2009-10 Annual Report, we calculated this year's estimate of moose abundance using a sightability factor of 69%. Predation rate is the proportion of the moose population killed by wolves each year. That statistic is calculated from estimates of kill rate and the ratio of wolves to moose. On the basis of those observations, the estimated predation rate is less than one percent (i.e., 0.8%). The four lowest predation rates have occurred in the past four years and the average predation rate for that four-year period has been 2.2%. Prior to this period, the average predation rate had been 9.9%. Over the past four and a half decades, predation rate has been the best predictor of moose population growth rate. The moose population has not been limited by wolf predation for the past four years (see 2013-14 Annual Report). Vegetation is also still plentiful (see 2013-14 Annual Report). The recent growth of the moose population is the strongest that has been observed in the project's history. That strong growth is in spite of two of the past four winters being severe (2012-13 and 2013-14). Consequently, the primary limiting factor for the moose population has been winter severity. If the recent trend in growth continues for just four more years the moose population will be in excess of 2400 moose. The only previous time (during the project's history), when moose were that abundant was 1996. At that time, the moose population had considerable impact on forest vegetation. Concerns remain that the upcoming increase in moose abundance will result in long-term damage to the health of Isle Royale's vegetative community (see 2013-14 Annual Report). In summer 2015, we conducted ground-based fieldwork from early May through mid-October. Rolf Peterson and John Vucetich directed that fieldwork with assistance from Carolyn Peterson and Leah Vucetich. Leah Vucetich also led a number of people working in our lab, especially John Henderson, Grace Parikh, and Andrew Kalember. The impact of ticks on moose was evaluated. Ticks peaked in 2007 and then generally declined, with spring 2015 being the lowest level of tick abundance except for the first year of monitoring. Moose bones were collected throughout the summer. Moose browse on balsam fir trees continues to be monitored. During the course of the year, many park staff and visitors contributed key observations and reports of wolf sightings and moose bones. The full, detailed 2014-2015 annual report can be found on our website (www.isleroyalewolf.org).
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Peterson RO, Killian M, Vucetich J, Vuceetich L. 2014. Joint Biomechanics and Bone Material Properties Relative to OA Risk in Wild Moose (Alces alces). Presented at the OARSI conference 30 April - 3 May 2015.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Peterson RO, Vucetich JA, Smith DW. 2014.Trophic cascades in a multicausal world: Isle Royale and Yellowstone. Annu.Rev.Ecol. Syst.45:325-345
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Melody et al. 2015. The impact of dietary toxins on diet selection and nutritional condition of free-ranging moose. Poster presented at the ID chapter of TWS meeting, March 2015.
|
|