Source: UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS submitted to
THE IMPORTANCE OF U.S. FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL TRADE IN A NEW GLOBAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
HATCH
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1001727
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
S-1062
Project Start Date
Nov 7, 2013
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2018
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Project Director
Wailes, ER, JA.
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS
(N/A)
FAYETTEVILLE,AR 72703
Performing Department
Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness
Non Technical Summary
The principalfocus of this research includesanalysis and outreachpertaining to the impacts of domestic and international policy, institutionsinterms oftrade creation and diversion, supply response, import demand, land values, price variability, agricultural value added, food safety, the environment, and emerging bio-energy issues. Improved competitiveness of the U.S. in international food and agricultural trade is expected to strengthen the employment base and increase income levels in respective states.
Animal Health Component
80%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
10%
Applied
80%
Developmental
10%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
6106110301040%
6066120301060%
Knowledge Area
610 - Domestic Policy Analysis; 606 - International Trade and Development;

Subject Of Investigation
6110 - Economy of the United States and sectors thereof; 6120 - International economy and sectors thereof;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;
Goals / Objectives
Determine the impacts of U.S. and foreign policies, market structures, and regulations on U.S. food and agricultural trade, the economy, and the environment. Determine the impacts of international arrangements and institutions on U.S. food and agricultural trade, the economy, and the environment.
Project Methods
Methods to accomplish these objectives include econometrics, simulation, spatial and optimization models, and time series analysis. Market behavior, supply and demand along with risk and uncertainty will be studied using these methods. The economic impacts will focus on changes in output, value added, employment, the welfare of consumers and producers, and government expenditures. Measures of economic performance will focus on prices, trade, economies at the regional and national level, and the environment. In addition, we will develop new methods and extend existing methods to accomplish these objectives. Objective 1: Determine the impacts of U.S. and foreign policies, market structures, and regulations on U.S. food and agricultural trade, the economy, and the environment. Global market developments along with structural changes in those markets and policy evolution directly affect U.S. agricultural trade and the environment. Structural changes are occurring in markets important to the U.S. due to income growth, urbanization, changes in demographics, and in the environment.Recent failures in agricultural productivity in Africa and the growth in the size of their middle class indicates future increase in the demand for agricultural and food imports from the U.S. and other net agricultural exporting nations. Developments in China, Russia, and other parts of the world such as Africa and South America make it imperative that future research focus on these issues. However, the traditional trade partners like Canada, Mexico and Japan are still important trade partners. Therefore, future work must consider these countries. For Objective 1, Procedures 1A and 1B,research will focus appropriate methods on a selected trade or policy issue. In keeping with multistate collaboration, the issues were specifically selected by the committee because they represent the current state of affairs. Procedure 1.A: U.S. and Foreign Policies The team of researchers will develop models to evaluate the effects of macroeconomics conditions in the U.S. and other nations on U.S. agricultural exports. In particular this work will build on the gravity and other trade models to explore these relationships. This work will focus on bulk commodities such as rice, corn, livestock, poultry, soybeans, wheat, etc. Additional work will focus on consumer-ready processed food products. The team will investigate the impact of exchange rates both from the perspective of achieving agreements and their impact on the competiveness of agriculture particularly in the Southern U.S. within the context of free trade agreements. The team has researchers assessing the impact of domestic policies and policies of other countrieson infrastructure related to our intermodal transportation system, specifically those components related to agricultural trade. A team of researchers is proposing more fundamental research on the effect of change in consumer preferences on international trade, with a particular interest inAfrican demand. Procedure 1.B: Regulations This section will focus on tariffs, food safety, sanitary and phytosanitary regulations, biotechnology, climate change, environmental regulations, animal welfare, and country of origin labeling. Beyond tariffs most of the regulations under consideration are often categorized as non-tariff measures (barriers) and can have substantial effects on production cost and ultimately affect trade flows. The team proposes to assess barriers to acceptance and use of genetically modified (GM) rice.We will coordinate a multi-country study looking at regulatory barriers, attitudes of producers and consumers, and social media. The proposed study will use experimental auctions, contingent valuation, and global modeling of impacts of acceptance/refusal commercialization of GM rice. Also the team will consider firm-level analysis á la Helpman, et al. (2008) and Melitz (2003) and Brander (1995)to understand better the effects of policies especially non-tariff measures at the firm level. Objective 2: Determine the impacts of international arrangements and institutions on U.S. food and agricultural trade, the economy, and the environment. International institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) are still significant players in international trade. Keeping up with changes in these institutions is vital to the movement of international trade. However, because of the inability of the WTO to move their agenda forward, we will focus on regional trade agreements (RTA) and free trade agreements (FTA). Trade agreements considered included NAFTA, APEC, DR-CAFTA, and the EU. Past work also examined the interface between regional free trade agreements and domestic policy and sought to examine bilateral trade between the United States and China. While a significant amount of work has been conducted examining the impact of regional and bilateral trade agreements on agricultural trade, much work remains to be done to show the impact of these agreements on other sectors of the economy and the economy as a whole. The impacts of new trade agreements, such as the recently signed FTAs with Columbia and Korea and the potential Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), U.S-EU Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, remain to be considered. The project will also consider other agreements that do not include the U.S. such asECOWAS and ASEANthat may affect U.S. trade relationships. In addition, it is important to determine the impact of existing and new trade agreements on the environment. Procedure 2.A: Impact of international arrangements (Regional and Bilateral Trade Agreements) Several researchers propose to use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, equilibrium displacement models, gravity models, global spatial equilibrium, and import demand models to assess the impacts of bilateral and regional free trade agreements on agricultural products (corn, dairy, meat, peanuts, rice, seafood, soybeans, sugar, tomatoes, tree nuts, wheat, watermelon, inter alia) relevant to their respective states. This work will assess the impacts of existing major and minor FTAs (ASEAN, COMESA, DR-CAFTA, ECOWAS, EU, MERCOSUR, NAFTA), proposed FTAs such as the US-EU Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), and bilateral agreements of the U.S. to Colombia, Cuba, Korea, and other countries as they arise. These models will evaluate trade creation and trade diversion and trade expansion attributable to the FTAs. Additionally, these trade models will assess bilateral and global trade, price, production, and consumption effects. A number of researchers in the group use the gravity model. These researchers will explore modifications to the model and new specifications including generalized and specific gravity models, models with a power transformation. Additionally, the team of researchers will investigate new methods to deal with zero trade and non-tariff measures. Procedure 2.B: Impact of international institutions (WTO, IMF, World Bank) The team will examine the interface between regional free trade agreements and domestic policy, focusing on how these agreements might constrain U.S. policy in the future. Researchers propose to assess the impact of the WTO and its dispute mechanism and rulings, other international institutions related to agricultural trade. More generally, the team of researcher will assess the impact of the WTO on the expansion of trade.

Progress 11/07/13 to 09/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience:Domestic and international agricultural policy analysts, rice and grain industry decision-makers and government officials were the target audiences. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?We have provided training for graduate research to both M.S. and Ph.D. studies. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results of the research have been broadly disseminated through briefs, staff papers, journal articles, and presentations at local, regional, and international assemblies. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Project activities addressed and contributed to identifying and solving challenges facing the global rice market. Rice accounts for 19 percent of global caloric consumption. From a food security perspective the analysis of policies, market strcutures, and regulations included research and outreach on important issues such as global and regional trade agreement, domestic commodity policies, technology adoption and impacts on production, consumption, and trade. The research provided analysis and insights of the impact of regional and global coordination of rice trading regimes. We also contributed to an improved understanding of the contribution of market integration, information dissemination, and consequences for adopting trade liberialization in the rice economy.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Durand-Morat, A., M. Diagne, E. Wailes, E. Chavez. Impact of ECOWAS Common External Tariffs on Food Security and Nutrition in West Africa. Selected paper, Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Feb 3-6, 2018
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Muthee, F., E. Wailes, A. Durand-Morat. Feasibility and impact of rice self-sufficiency strategies in East Africa. Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Feb 3-6, 2018
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Durand-Morat, A. Intrinsic rice attributes and consumer preferences: empirical evidence from Peru. Rice Technical Working Group Meeting, Feb 19-22, 2018
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Wailes, E.J.,E.C. Chavez, A. Durand-Morat. International Rice Outlook, International Rice Baseline Projections, 2017-2027. Staff Paper 01 2018. Dept. of Agr. Econ. and Agbus. University of Arkansas, Fayetteville. https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/273139/files/Staff%20Paper%20International%20Rice%20BaselineR-Mar2018-EJW.pdf
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Wailes, E.J., A. Durand-Morat, and L. English. Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Corn, Soybeans, Sorghum, Cotton, and Rice--Potential impacts on Arkansas agriculture. https://www.uaex.edu/media-resources/news/march2018/4-12-2018%20UPDATE%20Retaliatory%20Tariffs.pdf
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Fadhliani, Z., J. Luckstead, and E.J. Wailes. Impacts of muti-peril crop insurance in Indonesian rice farmers and production. Agricultural Economics. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12462
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Durand-Morat, A., L. Nalley, and g. Thoma. Implications of red rice on food security. Global Food Security 18:62-75.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Nahar, A., J. Luckstead, E. Wailes, and M.J. Alam. An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on rice farmers and markets in Bangladesh. Climatic Change 150: 2890-304 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2267-2
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Wailes, E., A. Durand-Morat, E.C. Chavez. Dynamics of distortionary interventions in global rice trade and production. 5th International Rice Congress. Singapore.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Wailes, E., A. Durand-Morat, N.V. Sanh. Water footprint and value chain model of global rice production, consumption, and trade. 5th International Rice Conference, Singapore.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Durand-Morat, A., M. Diagne, E. Wailes, E. Chavez. Prospects of ECOWAS Common External Tariffs on Food Security and Nutrition in West Africa. 5th International Rice Conference, Singapore.


Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:Scientific community and researchers by presenting at professional meetings and publishing in peer reviewed journals. Agribusinesses, farmers, exporters, USDA research and congressional officers and staff by presenting at outreach meetings and publishing in trade journals, newspapers, and staff papers. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Three M.S. thesis and one Ph.D. students were trained in quantitative and qualitative methods of market and policy interacations. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Dessimnation was through professional and industry publications and meetings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Complete journal publications on climate change impacts on rice trade, national rice development strategies, competitiveness strategies of U.S. rice and assessment of food security policies on global rice market performance.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? 1) Analysis of growth and development of rice consumption and production in African countries. National rice development straegies in key African rice economies. Analysis of changes in competiveness of U.S. from changes in production and consumption shifts in foreign countries. Analysis of changes in support policies on the Kosovo dairy industry. Assessment of qualitative factors driving the social and economic status of counties in rural Arkansas. Assessment of producer and government management of limited water resources on competitiveness of Arkansas crop agriculture. 2) Assessment of transactional relationships between the U.S. and Cuba on bliateral rice trade. Analysis of institutional structure and organization on environmental sustainability of Arkansas groundwater supplies and crop agriculture competitiveness.

Publications

  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Yu, T.E., S. Tokgoz, E. Wailes, and E. Chavez. 2017. A quantitative analysis of trade policy response to high world agricultural commodity prices. In eds. Antoine Bou�t and David Laborde. 2017. Agriculture, Development, and the Global Trading System, 2000-2015. Wash, DC International Food Policy Research Institute. pp. 365-401. https://lccn.loc.gov/2017026301
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Bajarami, E., E. Wailes, B. Dixon, A. Durand-Morat. (2017). Factors Affecting the Technical Efficiency of Dairy Farms in Kosovo. Journal of Central European Agriculture. 18(4):823-840.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Fadhliani, Z., J. Luckstead, E. Wailes. The Impacts of Multi-Peril Crop Insurance in Indonesian Rice Production. Agricultural Economics.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Nahar, A., J. Luckstead, E. Wailes, M.J. Alam. An Assessment of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Rice Markets and Farm Households in Bangladesh. Climate Change
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Bajrami, Egzon, F. Tsiboe, A. Musliu, I. Miftari, E. Wailes, B. Dixon. 2017. Estimating the effect of direct payments on technical efficiency: the case of dairy farms in the region of Prishtina and Peja, Kosovo. Selected Poster, XV EAAE Congress 2017. European Association of Agricultural Economists. Parma, Italy. September, 2017.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Bajrami, Egzon. 2016. Evaluation of Agricultural Policy in the Dairy Sector in Kosovo and Efficiency Analysis at the Farm Level. M.S. Thesis. Available at: http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/1720/
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Nahar, Mst Ashrafun. 2016. The Impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh on Rice Market and Farm Households. M.S. Thesis. Available at: http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/1728/
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Razafinjoelina, Sandratra. 2017. Rice Value Chain Development and Policy Sequencing in Southern Africa. M.S. Thesis. Available at: http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/1855/
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Kilders, Valerie. 2017. Qualitative Analysis of Social Capital in Arkansas--A Case Study Based Approach. M.S. Thesis. Available at: http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/2419/
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Bektemirov, Kuatbay K. 2017 Essays on Common-Pool; Resources: Evaluation of Water Management and Conservation Programs. Ph.D. Dissertation. Available at: http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/2432/
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Wailes, E.J. and E. C. Chavez. 2017. World and United States Rice Baseline Projections. B.R. Wells Arkansas Rice Research Studies (2016): 392-405. Agricultural Experiment Station. Division of Agriculture, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Durand-Morat, A, and E.J. Wailes. 2017. Assessment of United StatesMexico Trade Relations and Their Impact on the U.S. Rice Sector. B.R. Wells Arkansas Rice Research Studies (2016): 381-385. Agricultural Experiment Station. Fayetteville, Arkansas.


Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:Scientific community and researchers by presenting at professional meetings and publishing in peer reviewed journals. Agribusinesses, farmers, exporters, USDA researchers and congressional officers and staff members by presenting at outreach meetings and publishing in trade journals, newspapers, and staff papers. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?1) Analysis of U.S. and foreign policies and market development was the focus of three M.S. thesis students and one Ph.D. student. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Dissemination was through professional and industry publications and meeting. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Extend analysis of Cuban and African rice economies and their impacts on the global rice economies with a particular focus on policy sequencing, investment and market development. Reassess the relationships between food security and trade policies for the global rice markets.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? 1) Analysis ofchanges in U.S.-Cuban economic relations for the U.S. rice sector. Analysis of national rice development strategies in key African rice economies. Analysis of GM rice trade on U.S. and world rice economies. Analysis of liberalization of dairy support policies in Kosovo. 2) Analysis of TPP on U.S. and global rice economies.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Alam, M.J., J. Buysse, I.A. Begum, S. Nolte, E. Wailes and G Van Huylenbroeck. 2016. Impact of trade liberalization and world price changes in Bangladesh: a computable general equilibrium analysis. Agricultural and Food Economics 4:1-22. doi 10.1186/s40100-016-0045-x
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Tsiboe, F., B. Dixon and E. Wailes. 2016 Spatial dynamics and determinants of Liberian rice market integration. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 11(3):283-196.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Alam, M., A. McKenzie, I. Begum, J. Buysse, E. Wailes and G. Van Huylenbroeck. 2016. Asymmetry Price Transmission in the deregulated rice markets in Bangladesh: asymmetric error correction model. Agribusiness 32:498-511. doi:10.1002/agr.21461
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Bajrami, E., E. Wailes, B. Dixon, and A. Musliu. 2016. Are dairy subsidies effective to increase milk productivity and income in Kosovo? A propensity score matching approach. Selected Poster. American Applied Economics Association Meeting. Boston, MA.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Wailes, E., and E. Chavez. 2016. International rice outlook - International Rice Baseline Projections, 2015-2025. Staff Paper 01-2016. Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness. University of Arkansas, Fayetteville. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/235158.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Wailes, E., A., Durand-Morat and E. Chavez. 2016. Constraints to adoption and acceptance of GM rice. Abstract in Proceedings of the 36th Rice Technical Working Group Meeting. Galveston, TX. March 1-4, 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Chavez, E. and E. Wailes. 2016. International Rice Baseline Projections 2015-2025. Abstract in Proceedings of the 36th Rice Technical Working Group Meeting. Galveston, TX. March 1-4, 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Durand-Morat, A., E. Chavez and E. Wailes. 2016. GM rice commercialization and its impact on the global rice economy. Abstract in Proceedings of the 36th Rice Technical Working Group Meeting. Galveston, TX. March 1-4, 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Wailes, E. and A. Durand-Morat. 2016. A value chain assessment of the Cuban rice economy and export potential for the United States. Abstract in Proceedings of the 36th Rice Technical Working Group Meeting. Galveston, TX. March 1-4, 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Nahar, A., J. Luckstead and E. Wailes. 2016. Climate change impact on rice policy in Bangladesh: using a stochastic simulation approach. Abstract in Proceedings of the 36th Rice Technical Working Group Meeting. Galveston, TX. March 1-4, 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Durand-Morat, A. and E. Wailes. 2016. Trans-Pacific Partnership: what can it mean for the global and U.S. rice markets? Abstract in Proceedings of the 36th Rice Technical Working Group Meeting. Galveston, TX. March 1-4, 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Razafinjoelina, S., E. Wailes and A. Durand-Morat. 2016. Policy sequencing to optimize the National Rice Development strategies for southern African CARD member countries. Abstract in Proceedings of the 36th Rice Technical Working Group Meeting. Galveston, TX. March 1-4, 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Muthee, F., E. Wailes and A. Durand-Morat. 2016. Rice value chain development and policy sequencing in East Africa. Abstract in Proceedings of the 36th Rice Technical Working Group Meeting. Galveston, TX. March 1-4, 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Ali, R., E. Wailes and A. Durand-Morat. 2016. Rice development strategy in Malaysia: a policy analysis matrix approach. Abstract in Proceedings of the 36th Rice Technical Working Group Meeting. Galveston, TX. March 1-4, 2016.


Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:(1) Studies were completed and presented on the regulatory environment and on the consumer willingness to pay and producer willingness to adopt for a large set of countries using similar research methods. Qualitative studies describing the regulatory environment in Japan, China, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Colombia, the EU and the USA were conducted. Consumer contingent valuation studies on willingness to pay for GM rice were completed forChina, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Ghana, Colombia and Honduras. Detailed analysis of producer willingness to adopt GM ricewere completed for Bangladesh, Tanzania, Ghana, Colombia and Honduras. A study of changes in the export concentration and structure of global rice trade waspublished. A study on the impact of GM rice contamination was published.The impact of the 2014 U.S. farm bill was analyzed and used in extension presentations for Arkansas farmers. The impact of global rice trade policies were studied and modeled into two large global rice models, spatial (RICEFLOW) and non-spatial (Arkansas Global Rice Model). Stochastic analysis was used to develop 10 year baselines and provide a framework to describe the trends in the global rice market based on macro and policy assumptions. A study of the impact of Clearfield rice technology on the returns to research funding was conducted. (2) Studies werecompleted to assess the impacts of the TPP and TTIP mega regional trade negotiations on global rice trade. An additional study wasconducted on the emergency rice reserve andanotherto assess the impact of ECOWAS trade integration for West African rice and food security and trade implications. Special studies on price integration, policy sequencing and development of the Liberian rice value chain were conducted. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been disseminated primarily through publications and public extension meetings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We will continue to update and expand the global rice models. We will continue to analyze U.S. and international trade policies, institutions, and trade relationships to assist the U.S. rice sector to better understand constraints and opportunities in domestic and global markets.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? 1) Analysis of the 2014 Farm Bill was extended to Arkanas farmers to help them understand and participate in the commodity and crop insurance programs. 2) Analysis of the TPP and TTIP regional trade agreements provided the rice sector with information to assess the value and benefits of these trade agreements.

Publications

  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Wailes, Eric J., Alvaro Durand-Morat , Mandiaye Diagne. 2015. Regional and National Rice Development Strategies for Food Security in West Africa, in Andrew Schmitz , P. Lynn Kennedy , Troy G. Schmitz (ed.) Food Security in an Uncertain World (Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, Volume 15) Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp.255  268
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Wailes, Eric, Alvaro Durand-Morat, Eddie Chavez, Mohammad Alam, Francis Mwaijande, Hans De Steur, Shoichi Ito, Zhihao Zheng, Alice Jin, Ranjit Mane, Francis Tsiboe 2015. Identify and Analyze Barriers to the acceptance and use of GM rice. In Patrick Mitton, David Bennett (ed.) Analyses, Africa's Future... Can Biosciences Contribute?, Chapter 13: pages 129-137; Banson/B4FA., ISBN: 978-0-9932932-3-8
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Durand-Morat, Alvaro, Eric J Wailes, Rodolfo M Nayga. 2015. Challenges of Conducting Contingent Valuation Studies in Developing Countries. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 2015. Online at doi: 10.1093/ajae/aav068 December, 2015
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Thompson, Jada, Eric J. Wailes, Alvaro Durand-Morat, Amanda Leister. 2015. Welfare effects of U.S. Liberty Link Rice Contamination. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 47(2): 243-259. May, 2015
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Durand-Morat, A., E. Chavez, E. Wailes. 2015 GM Rice Commercialization and its Impact on the global Rice Economy. Selected Paper and Abstract. 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia Southern Agricultural Economics Association. Available at: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu//handle/196979 Durand-Morat, Alvaro, Eric Wailes, MJ Alam, Francis Mwaijande, Francis Tsiboe. 2015. Multi-Country Assessment of Barriers To Acceptance of Gm Rice. Selected Paper and Abstract. 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia Southern Agricultural Economics Association. Available at: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/196980
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Eric Wailes and Eddie C. Chavez. 2015. International Rice Outlook, Baseline Projections 2014-2024. Staff Paper SP 01, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas. Available at: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/199846 Eric Wailes. 2015. Biosciences for Africa. Bioscience Issues. Identify and Analyze Barriers to the acceptance and use of GM rice. Summary of research project. Accessed at: http://b4fa.org/dr-eric-wailes/ Eric Wailes. 2015. Policy Sequencing Assessment for Liberias Rice Value Chain. Feed the Future, US Agency for International Development. October 2015. Available at: http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00KRN5.pdf Alvaro Durand-Morat, Eddie Chavez, and Eric Wailes 2015. Genetically Modified Rice Commercialization and Its Impact on the Global Rice Economy. In R.J. Norman and K.A.K. Moldenhauer (eds) B.R. Well Rice Research Series 626. Division of Agriculture, University of Arkansas. Available at: http://arkansasagnews.uark.edu/626-41.pdf Eric Wailes and Eddie Chavez. 2015. World and U.S. Rice Outlook: Deterministic and Stochastic Baseline Projections 2014-2025. In R.J. Norman and K.A.K. Moldenhauer (eds) B.R. Well Rice Research Series 626. Division of Agriculture, University of Arkansas. Available at: http://arkansasagnews.uark.edu/626-44.pdf Eric Wailes and Alvaro Durand-Morat. 2015. Assessing the economic impact of Clearfield Rice Technology in Louisiana. Report prepared for the Louisiana Agricultural Experiment Station.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Jacobs, William. Ex Ante Analysis of Price and Trade Effects for the Rice Sector in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. M.S. Thesis. University of Arkansas. 2015
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Shear, Hannah. A regional approach to analysis of food security framework and policies of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). M.S. Thesis. University of Arkansas 2015.


Progress 11/07/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience: Farmers, consumers, economic researchers, policy decision-makers Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? The project has provide the opportunity for four M.S. level students to conduct research and develop thesis outputs. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The results have been disseminated to communities of interest through journal articles, conference presentations, meetings, websites http://www.uark.edu/ua/ricersch/ and http://gmrice.uark.edu What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Continue to publish research on contraints and barriers to commercialization of GM rice. Continue and publish research on sturctural change and performance of the global rice economy. Continue and publish research on the 2014 farm bill. Continue to research and publish on the impact of TPP and TTIP trade negotiations on the global and US rice economies.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? (1) Studies were completed and presented on the regulatory environment and on the consumer willingness to pay and producer willingness to adopt for a large set of countries using similar research methods. Qualitative studies describing the regulatory environment in Japan, China, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Colombia, the EU and the USA were conducted. Consumer contingent valuation studies on willingness to pay for GM rice was conducted in China, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Ghana, Colombia and Honduras. Detailed analysis of producer willingness to adopt GM rice was conducted in Bangladesh, Tanzania, Ghana, Colombia and Honduras. A study of changes in the export concentration and structure of global rice trade was studied and published. The alternative proposals for trade reform in the Doha Development negotiation round of the WTO was studies and presented in an article. The impact of the 2014 U.S. farm bill was analyzed with studies completed and presented to clientele using representative Arkansas farms. The impact of global rice trade policies were studied and modeled into two large global rice models, spatial (RICEFLOW) and non-spatial (Arkansas Global Rice Model). Stochastic analysis was used to develop 10 year baselines and provide a framework to describe the trends in the global rice market based on macro and policy assumptions. (2) Studies were initiated to asses the impact of the TPP and TTIP mega regional trade negotiations on global rice trade. An additional study was initiated to assess the impact of ECOWAS for West African rice and food security and trade implications.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Lakkakula, P, B. L. Dixon, M. R. Thomsen, E. J. Wailes and D. M. Danforth. Global Rice Trade Competitiveness: A Shift-Share Analysis. Agricultural Economics. Forthcoming. Mane, R., E.J. Wailes. Impact of Trade Liberalization in Rice: Assessing Alternative Proposals. Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, 8, 1:65-80. Wailes, E.J. and E.C. Chavez. International Rice Baseline Briefing, 2013-2023. March 2014 at: http://www.uark.edu/ua/ricersch/pdfs/World_Rice_Outlook_International_Baseline_Projections_2013-2023.pdf Chavez, E.C., E.J. Wailes, and A. Durand-Morat. Trade and Price Impacts of Thailand Paddy Pledging Program on the Global Rice Market. Selected paper, SAEA 2014 Annual Meeting, Dallas, TX February 2014. Jin, J., E.J. Wailes, B.L. Dixon, R.M. Nayga, Z. Zheng. Consumer acceptance and willingness to pay for genetically modified rice in China. Selected paper, AAEA 2014 Annual Meeting, Minneapolis, MN July 2014. Wailes, E.J., E.C. Chavez, K.B. Watkins, and R. Coats. Commodity Program Options in the 2014 Farm Bill. Farm Policy Brief at: http://www.uaex.edu/farm-ranch/economics-marketing/docs/FarmBill2014Brief_02.26.2014.pdf Wailes, E.J., and E.C. Chavez. Farm Bill 2014 Overview and Introduction to Assessing Impacts on Example Arkansas Farms. Farm Policy Brief at: http://www.uaex.edu/farm-ranch/economics-marketing/farm-bill/ Wailes, E.J. Emerging issues affecting the non-Asian rice market and the price forecast for 2014/15. Invited presentation, Global Rice Market and Trade Summit, 2014 International Rice Congress, October 2014, Bangkok, Thailand. Wailes, E.J. Changing Rice Trade Policies and Their Implications for the Global Rice Market. Invited presentation, Global Rice Market and Trade Summit, 2014 International Rice Congress, October 2014, Bangkok, Thailand. Durand-Morat, A., E. Wailes, and E. Chavez. 2014. Assessing the impact of adoption and diffusion of hybrid rice on the global market. Selected paper presented at the 4th International Rice Congress, Bangkok, Thailand, October 2014. Diagne, M., H. Shear, A Durand-Morat, E. Wailes and A. Diagne. 2014. Impact assessment of a strategic regional reserve on rice availability and accessibility in West Africa: a partial equilibrium approach. Selected paper presented at the 4th International Rice Congress, Bangkok, Thailand, October 2014. Alam, M.J., A. Durand-Morat, and E. Wailes. 2014. Constraints to large scale adoption of GM rice in Bangladesh. Selected poster presented at the 4th International Rice Congress, Bangkok, Thailand, October 2014. Jin, J., Z. Zheng, and E. Wailes. 2014. Assessment of barriers to adoption nd acceptance of GM rice in China. Selected poster presented at the 4th International Rice Congress, Bangkok, Thailand, October 2014. Durand-Morat, A., and E. Wailes. 2014. Constraints to large scale adoption of GM rice in Colombia and Honduras. Selected poster presented at the 4th International Rice Congress, Bangkok, Thailand, October 2014. Mwaijande, F., F. Tsiboe, A. Durand-Morat, and E. Wailes. 2014. Constraints to large scale adoption of GM rice in Ghana and Tanzania. Selected poster presented at 4th International Rice Congress, Bangkok, Thailand, October 2014. Chavez, E., A. Durand-Morat, and E. Wailes. 2014. GM rice commercialization and its impact on the global rice economy. Selected poster presented at 4th International Rice Congress, Bangkok, Thailand, October 2014. Wailes, E., A. Durand-Morat, M.J. Alam, F. Mwaijande, F. Tsiboe, Z. Zheng, J. Jin, E. Chavez, H. De Steur, S. Ito. 2014. Multi-country assessment of barriers to acceptance of GM rice. Selected poster presented at 4th International Rice Congress, Bangkok, Thailand, October 2014.