Fire Ecology - ROCKY MOUNTAIN RESEARCH STATION

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
101	0199	1070	10%
112	0320	1070	20%
135	0699	1070	10%
206	0699	1000	60%

Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20

Outputs
OUTPUTS: 1. Predicting ecosystem response from climate shifts using ecosystem modeling is now becoming incredibly important as most empirical studies were conducted under climates that will be vastly different in the future. Over the last 30 years, the landscape ecosystem simulation model FireBGCv2 has been developed to explore ecosystem and landscape response as a result of changing fire and climate regimes. New simulation research has found thresholds in landscape resilience at different suppression and fuel treatment levels. 2. New approaches to restoration and maintenance of whitebark pine forests are being developed, based both on field studies and on modeling exercise. Whitebark pine forests are declining at alarming rates and new treatments are needed to restore these high elevation ecosystems. Projected future warming and drying may further exacerbate the species⿿ decline and possibly compromise long-term success of today⿿s restoration activities. FireBGCv2 was used to simulate whitebark pine populations on two U.S. Northern Rocky Mountain landscapes over 95 years under two climate, three restoration, and two fire management scenarios. Major findings were that (a) whitebark pine can remain on some high mountain landscapes in a future climate albeit at lower basal areas (50% decrease), (b) restoration efforts, such as thinning and prescribed burning, are vital to ensure future whitebark pine forests, and (c) climate change impacts on whitebark pine vary by local setting. One restoration treatment, termed ⿿Daylighting⿝ has been explored to document the effects of daylighting treatments, implemented with other silvicultural and prescribed burning treatments, on wildland fuels, tree survival and mortality, and understory vegetation. 3. After large, tree-killing disturbances such as a fire, it can be challenging to resolve economic and conservation priorities about managing the forest. Salvage logging is often litigated over concerns regarding negative effects on aquatic and terrestrial resources. When it comes to post-fire management, including deciding whether or not to salvage, the first step is to quantify the level of tree mortality expected. Developing models that accurately predict which trees will die after fire is essential to this process. We developed five management reports that interpret post-fire tree mortality models to provide salvage guidelines for dead and dying trees in the Northern Region. 4. A multidisciplinary study is inferring the historical drivers of ecosystem dynamics in mixed-conifer forests of the Flathead Indian Reservation where tribal members and forest managers have a strong interest in preserving historical continuity. This study is providing a mechanistic understanding of factors that shape current forest stand characteristics in the context of national restoration priorities through multiscale sampling of tree rings and lake sediment cores. 5. Prairie-forest ecotones are ecologically important for biodiversity and ecological processes. While these ecotones cover small areas, their sharp gradients in land cover promote rich ecological interaction and high conservation value. The ecological history of the Palouse Prairie of Idaho and Washington State has been reconstructed from tree rings and historical tree surveys. PARTICIPANTS: Brown, Sara H.; Dzomba, Thomas; Smith, Helen Y; Hood, Sharon M; Keane, Robert E; Reardon, James J; Lutes, Duncan C; Dillon, Greg; Holsinger, Lisa; Sikkink, Pamela; Frame, Shelley; Systems for Environmental Management (SEM); S&K Global Solutions; U.S. Geological Survey; NEON, Inc.; Yellowstone Center for Resources; USDA Forest Service, Northern Region; University of Idaho; The University of Arizona; University of Colorado; U.S. National Park System; U.S. National Park Service; Boise State University; USDA Forest Service, Eldorado National Forest; Santa Fe National Forest Mountain Heritage Associates; Benicia Historical Museum; USDA Forest Service, San Bernardino National Forest; USDA Forest Service, Northern Region; Heyerdahl, Emily K; Montana State University; Salish Kootenai College; Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes; University of Idaho; Portland State University. TARGET AUDIENCES: Landscape ecologists; ecologists; fire and fuel managers; fuel specialists; fire scientists; inventory and monitoring specialists; systems developers.

Impacts
1. Increases in fire under warming climates will overwhelm vegetation response to climate change, making ecosystem modeling to inform fire management incredibly important in the future. 2. Whitebark pine restoration efforts will mostly be successful in the future but only if future populations are somewhat resistant to WPBR. Results were used to develop general guidelines that address climate change impacts for planning, designing, implementing, and evaluating fine-scale restoration activities. 3. The regional reports we developed provide consistent methods for quantifying stand-level expected mortality from fire, anticipated Douglas-fir beetle activity in burned areas, and tree-level marking guidelines for post-fire salvage decisions in the Northern Rockies. Field research on the effects of various restoration treatments in disturbance regimes that include fire and insects highlights the importance of managing forests for multiple ecological objectives. Management decisions should be guided by broad ecological factors such as long-term ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change and multiple disturbances. 4. Extensive field research in tribal mixed-conifer forests suggests climate variability was the dominant control on fire activity and vegetation change in the early and mid-Holocene until fire activity and vegetation departed from dominant climatic controls during the last 2 millennia, indicating a possible strong influence of human activity on fire regimes and ecology of mixed-conifer forests. 5. The Palouse prairie-forest boundary has remained stable through time, although most of the prairie was converted to agriculture and fires were excluded from the forest. Understanding the historical role of fire in the Palouse Prairie-forest ecotone informs future conservation, restoration, and management strategies for this ecosystem.

Publications

Alongi, Franklin; Hansen, Andrew J.; Laufenberg, David; Keane, Robert E.; Legg, Kristin; Lavin, Matt. 2019. An economical approach to distinguish genetically needles of limber from whitebark pine. Forests. 10: 1060.
Alongi, Franklin; Hansen, Andrew J.; Laufenberg, David; Keane, Robert E.; Legg, Kristin; Lavin, Matt. 2020. Using genetics to distinguish limber from whitebark pine. Nutcracker Notes. 38: 20-21, 33.
Flanary, Sarah J.; Keane, Robert E. 2019. Whitebark pine encroachment into lower-elevation sagebrush grasslands in southwest Montana, USA. Fire Ecology. 15: 42.
Hood, Sharon M. 2020. Fire and bark beetle interactions. In: Manzello, Samuel L., ed. Encyclopedia of Wildfires and Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Fires. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. 6 p.
Hood, Sharon M.; Reed, Charlotte C.; Kane, Jeffrey M. 2020. Axial resin duct quantification in tree rings: A functional defense trait. MethodsX. 7: 101035.
Hood, Sharon M.; Varner, J. Morgan. 2019. Post-fire tree mortality. In: Manzello, Samuel L., ed. Encyclopedia of Wildfires and Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Fires. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. 10 p.
Keane, Bob; Bower, Andrew; Hood, Sharon. 2020. A burning paradox: Whitebark is easy to kill but also dependent on fire. Nutcracker Notes. 38: 7-8, 34.
Keane, Robert E. 2019. Fire ecology. In: Manzello, Samuel L., ed. Encyclopedia of Wildfires and Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Fires. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. 12 p.
Keane, Robert E. 2019. Natural fuels. In: Manzello, Samuel L., ed. Encyclopedia of Wildfires and Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Fires. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. 6 p.
Keane, Robert E.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Loehman, Rachel. 2020. Bioclimatic modeling of potential vegetation types as an alternative to species distribution models for projecting plant species shifts under changing climates. Forest Ecology and Management. 477: 118498.
Keane, Robert E.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Smith, Helen Y.; Sikkink, Pamela G. 2020. Drying rates of saturated masticated fuelbeds from Rocky Mountain mixed-conifer stands. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 29: 57-69.
Keane, Robert E.; Loehman, Rachel. 2019. Historical range and variation (HRV). In: Manzello, Samuel L., ed. Encyclopedia of Wildfires and Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Fires. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. 12 p.
Kichas, Nickolas E.; Hood, Sharon M.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Everett, Richard G.; McWethy, David B. 2020. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) growth and defense in response to mountain pine beetle outbreaks. Nutcracker Notes. 38: 15-19.
Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.; Holsinger, Lisa M. 2020. Simulation modeling of complex climate, wildfire, and vegetation dynamics to address wicked problems in land management. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change. 3: Article 3.
Morgan, Penelope; Heyerdahl, Emily K.; Strand, Eva K.; Bunting, Stephen C.; Riser, James P., II; Abatzoglou, John T.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max; Johnson, Mara. 2020. Fire and land cover change in the Palouse Prairie-forest ecotone, Washington and Idaho, USA. Fire Ecology. 16: 2.
Reed, Charlotte C.; Hood, Sharon M. 2021. Few generalizable patterns of tree-level mortality during extreme drought and concurrent bark beetle outbreaks. Science of the Total Environment. 750: 141306.
Shearman, Timothy M.; Varner, J. Morgan; Hood, Sharon M.; Canslera, C. Alina; Hiers, J. Kevin. 2019. Modelling post-fire tree mortality: Can random forest improve discrimination of imbalanced data? Ecological Modelling. 414: 108855.
Tepley, Alan J.; Hood, Sharon M.; Keyes, Christopher R.; Sala, Anna. 2020. Forest restoration treatments in a ponderosa pine forest enhance physiological activity and growth under climatic stress. Ecological Applications. doi: 10.1002/EAP.2188.

Progress 07/18/08 to 09/30/19

Outputs
OUTPUTS: 1. Predicting ecosystem response from climate shifts using ecosystem modeling is now becoming incredibly important as most empirical studies were conducted under climates that will be vastly different in the future. Over the last 30 years, the landscape ecosystem simulation model FireBGCv2 has been developed to explore ecosystem and landscape response as a result of changing fire and climate regimes. New simulation research has found thresholds in landscape resilience at different suppression and fuel treatment levels. 2. New approaches to restoration and maintenance of whitebark pine forests are being developed, based both on field studies and on modeling exercise. Whitebark pine forests are declining at alarming rates and new treatments are needed to restore these high elevation ecosystems. Projected future warming and drying may further exacerbate the species⿿ decline and possibly compromise long-term success of today⿿s restoration activities. FireBGCv2 was used to simulate whitebark pine populations on two U.S. Northern Rocky Mountain landscapes over 95 years under two climate, three restoration, and two fire management scenarios. Major findings were that (a) whitebark pine can remain on some high mountain landscapes in a future climate albeit at lower basal areas (50% decrease), (b) restoration efforts, such as thinning and prescribed burning, are vital to ensure future whitebark pine forests, and (c) climate change impacts on whitebark pine vary by local setting. One restoration treatment, termed ⿿Daylighting⿝ has been explored to document the effects of daylighting treatments, implemented with other silvicultural and prescribed burning treatments, on wildland fuels, tree survival and mortality, and understory vegetation. 3. After large, tree-killing disturbances such as a fire, it can be challenging to resolve economic and conservation priorities about managing the forest. Salvage logging is often litigated over concerns regarding negative effects on aquatic and terrestrial resources. When it comes to post-fire management, including deciding whether or not to salvage, the first step is to quantify the level of tree mortality expected. Developing models that accurately predict which trees will die after fire is essential to this process. We developed five management reports that interpret post-fire tree mortality models to provide salvage guidelines for dead and dying trees in the Northern Region. 4. A multidisciplinary study is inferring the historical drivers of ecosystem dynamics in mixed-conifer forests of the Flathead Indian Reservation where tribal members and forest managers have a strong interest in preserving historical continuity. This study is providing a mechanistic understanding of factors that shape current forest stand characteristics in the context of national restoration priorities through multiscale sampling of tree rings and lake sediment cores. 5. Prairie-forest ecotones are ecologically important for biodiversity and ecological processes. While these ecotones cover small areas, their sharp gradients in land cover promote rich ecological interaction and high conservation value. The ecological history of the Palouse Prairie of Idaho and Washington State has been reconstructed from tree rings and historical tree surveys. PARTICIPANTS: Brown, Sara H.; Dzomba, Thomas; Smith, Helen Y; Hood, Sharon M; Keane, Robert E; Reardon, James J; Lutes, Duncan C; Dillon, Greg; Holsinger, Lisa; Sikkink, Pamela; Frame, Shelley; Systems for Environmental Management (SEM); S&K Global Solutions; U.S. Geological Survey; NEON, Inc.; Yellowstone Center for Resources; USDA Forest Service, Northern Region; University of Idaho; The University of Arizona; University of Colorado; U.S. National Park System; U.S. National Park Service; Boise State University; USDA Forest Service, Eldorado National Forest; Santa Fe National Forest Mountain Heritage Associates; Benicia Historical Museum; USDA Forest Service, San Bernardino National Forest; USDA Forest Service, Northern Region; Heyerdahl, Emily K; Montana State University; Salish Kootenai College; Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes; University of Idaho; Portland State University. TARGET AUDIENCES: Landscape ecologists; ecologists; fire and fuel managers; fuel specialists; fire scientists; inventory and monitoring specialists; systems developers. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Colin Hardy retired and Sara Brown (Ph# 435-590-3112, sara.h.brown@usda.gov) is new Program Manager

Impacts
1. Increases in fire under warming climates will overwhelm vegetation response to climate change, making ecosystem modeling to inform fire management incredibly important in the future. 2. Whitebark pine restoration efforts will mostly be successful in the future but only if future populations are somewhat resistant to WPBR. Results were used to develop general guidelines that address climate change impacts for planning, designing, implementing, and evaluating fine-scale restoration activities. 3. The regional reports we developed provide consistent methods for quantifying stand-level expected mortality from fire, anticipated Douglas-fir beetle activity in burned areas, and tree-level marking guidelines for post-fire salvage decisions in the Northern Rockies. Field research on the effects of various restoration treatments in disturbance regimes that include fire and insects highlights the importance of managing forests for multiple ecological objectives. Management decisions should be guided by broad ecological factors such as long-term ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change and multiple disturbances. 4. Extensive field research in tribal mixed-conifer forests suggests climate variability was the dominant control on fire activity and vegetation change in the early and mid-Holocene until fire activity and vegetation departed from dominant climatic controls during the last 2 millennia, indicating a possible strong influence of human activity on fire regimes and ecology of mixed-conifer forests. 5. The Palouse prairie-forest boundary has remained stable through time, although most of the prairie was converted to agriculture and fires were excluded from the forest. Understanding the historical role of fire in the Palouse Prairie-forest ecotone informs future conservation, restoration, and management strategies for this ecosystem.

Publications

Crotteau, Justin S.; Hood, Sharon M.; Lutes, Duncan C.; Keyes, Christopher R.; Sala, Anna; Harrington, Michael G. 2018. Management and succession at the Lick Creek Demonstration/Research Forest, Montana. Journal of Forestry. 116: 481-486. Includes supplement.
Daniels, Lori D.; Kent, Larissa L. Yocom; Sherriff, Rosemary L.; Heyerdahl, Emily K. 2017. Deciphering the complexity of historical fire regimes: Diversity among forests of western North America [Chapter 8]. In: Amoroso, Mariano M.; Daniels, Lori D.; Baker, Patrick J.; Camarero, J. Julio. Dendroecology: Tree-Ring Analyses Applied to Ecological Studies. Springer, Cham: Ecological Studies 231. p. 185-210.
Fryer, Janet L.; Matthews, Robin F. 2018. Echinocereus triglochidiatus, kingcup cactus. In: Fire Effects Information System. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory. Online: https://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/cactus/echtri/all.html
Fryer, Janet L.; Tirmenstein, D. 2019. Juniperus occidentalis. In: Fire Effects Information System. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire Sciences Laboratory. Online: https://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/tree/junocc/all.html.
Murphy, Shannon K.; Fryer, Janet L. 2019. Fire regimes of juniper communities in the Columbia and northern Great basins. In: Fire Effects Information System. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory. Online: https://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/fire_regimes/Columbia_GB_juniper/all.html.
Grayson, Lindsay M.; Cluck, Daniel R.; Hood, Sharon M. 2019. Persistence of fire-killed conifer snags in California, USA. Fire Ecology: 15: 1.
Haugo, Ryan D.; Kellogg, Bryce S.; Cansler, C. Alina; Kolden, Crystal A.; Kemp, Kerry B.; Robertson, James C.; Metlen, Kerry L.; Vaillant, Nicole M.; Restaino, Christina M. 2019. The missing fire: Quantifying human exclusion of wildfire in Pacific Northwest forests, USA. Ecosphere. 10(4): Article e02702.
Higuera, Philip E.; Metcalf, Alexander L.; Miller, Carol; Buma, Brian; McWethy, David B.; Metcalf, Elizabeth C.; Ratajczak, Zak; Nelson, Cara R.; Chaffin, Brian C.; Stedman, Richard C.; McCaffrey, Sarah; Schoennagel, Tania; Harvey, Brian J.; Hood, Sharon M.; Schultz, Courtney A.; Black, Anne E.; Campbell, David; Haggerty, Julia H.; Keane, Robert E.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Kulig, Judith C.; Rafferty, Rebekah; Virapongse, Arika. 2019. Integrating subjective and objective dimensions of resilience in fire-prone landscapes. BioScience. 69(5): 379-388.
Hood, Sharon M.; Varner, J. Morgan; van Mantgem, Phillip; Cansler, C. Alina. 2018. Fire and tree death: Understanding and improving modeling of fire-induced tree mortality. Environmental Research Letters. 13: 113004.
Innes, Robin J. 2019. Artemisia tridentata subsp. wyomingensis. In: Fire Effects Information System. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory. Online: https://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/shrub/arttriw/all.html.
Keane, Robert E. 2018. Managing wildfire for whitebark pine ecosystem restoration in western North America. Forests. 9: 648.
Keane, Robert E.; Gray, Kathy; Davis, Brett; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Loehman, Rachel. 2019. Evaluating ecological resilience across wildfire suppression levels under climate and fuel treatment scenarios using landscape simulation modelling. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 28(7): 533-549.
Loehman, Rachel A.; Reinhardt, Elizabeth; Riley, Karin L. 2014. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Seeing the forest and the trees - A cross-scale assessment of wildfire and carbon dynamics in fire-prone, forested ecosystems. Forest Ecology and Management. 317: 9-19.
McKinney, Shawn T. 2019. Fire regimes of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) ecosystems in Colorado: A systematic review and meta-analysis. In: Fire Effects Information System. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory. Online: https://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/fire_regimes/CO_ponderosa_pine/all.html.
Riley, Karin L.; Williams, A. Park; Urbanski, Shawn P.; Calkin, David E.; Short, Karen C.; O⿿Connor, Christopher D. 2019. Will landscape fire increase in the future? A systems approach to climate, fire, fuel, and human drivers. Current Pollution Reports. 5(2): 9-24.
Roskilly, Beth; Keeling, Eric; Hood, Sharon; Giuggiola, Arnaud; Sala, Anna. 2019. Conflicting functional effects of xylem pit structure relate to the growth-longevity trade-off in a conifer species. PNAS. doi: /10.1073/pnas.1900734116.
Sanchez-Monroy, X.; Mell, W.; Torres-Arenas, J.; Butler, B. W. 2019. Fire spread upslope: Numerical simulation of laboratory experiments. Fire Safety Journal. 108: 102844.
Axelson, Jodi; Battles, John; Bulaon, Beverly; Cluck, Danny; Cousins, Stella; Cox, Lauren; Estes, Becky; Fettig, Chris; Hefty, Andrea; Hishinuma, Stacy; Hood, Sharon; Kocher, Susie; Mortenson, Leif; Koltunov, Alexander; Kuskulis, Elliot; Poloni, Adrian; Ramirez, Carlos; Restaino, Christina; Slaton, Michele; Smith, Sheri; Tubbesing, Carmen. 2019. The California Tree Mortality Data Collection Network - Enhanced communication and collaboration among scientists and stakeholders. California Agriculture. 73(2): 55-62.

Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
OUTPUTS: 1. New approaches to restoration and maintenance of Whitebark pine forests are being developed, based both on field studies and on modeling exercise. Whitebark pine forests are declining at alarming rates and new treatments are needed to restore these high elevation ecosystems. Projected future warming and drying may further exacerbate the species⿿ decline and possibly compromise long-term success of today⿿s restoration activities. A comprehensive landscape simulation experiment was used to evaluate successes of restoration treatments under future climate using. The spatially explicit, ecological process model FireBGCv2 was used to simulate whitebark pine populations on two U.S. Northern Rocky Mountain landscapes over 95 years under two climate, three restoration, and two fire management scenarios. Major findings were that (a) whitebark pine can remain on some high mountain landscapes in a future climate albeit at lower basal areas (50% decrease), (b) restoration efforts, such as thinning and prescribed burning, are vital to ensure future whitebark pine forests, and (c) climate change impacts on whitebark pine vary by local setting. One restoration treatment, termed ⿿Daylighting⿝ has been explored to document the effects of daylighting treatments, implemented with other silvicultural and prescribed burning treatments, on wildland fuels, tree survival and mortality, and understory vegetation. 2. Wildfire and bark beetles are two of the most influential disturbance agents in temperate coniferous forests worldwide. Multiple studies and approaches are leading to improved understanding insect-fire interactions as they relate to understanding resilience and implementing effective restoration strategies. A particularly productive field study exploited the presence of a previously treated study site which was part of a national program to study the effects of silvicultural methods designed to reduce fire hazard in forests with a historical, frequent, low-to-moderate severity fire regime. The comprehensive suite of treatments included control sites, thinning only, burning only, and thinning and burning. A subsequent and extensive bark beetle infestation provided an opportunity to explore whether treatment effects on tree-level defense and stand structure affected resistance to MPB. Results showed that treatments designed to increase resistance to high-severity fire in ponderosa pine-dominated forests in the Northern Rockies can also increase resistance to MPB, even during an outbreak. PARTICIPANTS: Hardy, Colin C.; Dzomba, Thomas; Smith, Helen Y; Hood, Sharon M; Keane, Robert E; Reardon, James J; Coffey-Avey, Crystal; Iverson, Karen; Lutes, Duncan C; Dillon, Greg; Holsinger, Lisa; Izbicki, Brian; Leirfallom, Signe; Sikkink, Pamela; Silverstein, Robin; Clark, Jason A. ; Frame, Shelley; Systems for Environmental Management (SEM); S&K Global Solutions; U.S. Geological Survey; NEON, Inc.; Yellowstone Center for Resources; USDA Forest Service, Northern Region; University of Idaho; The University of Arizona; University of Colorado; U.S. National Park System; U.S. National Park Service; Boise State University; USDA Forest Service, Eldorado National Forest; Santa Fe National Forest Mountain Heritage Associates; Benicia Historical Museum; USDA Forest Service, San Bernardino National Forest. TARGET AUDIENCES: landscape ecologists; ecologists; fire and fuel managers; fuel specialists; fire scientists; inventory and monitoring specialists; systems developers.

Impacts
1. Whitebark pine restoration efforts will mostly be successful in the future but only if future populations are somewhat resistant to WPBR. Results were used to develop general guidelines that address climate change impacts for planning, designing, implementing, and evaluating fine-scale restoration activities. 2. Field research on the effects of various restoration treatments in disturbance regimes that include fire and insects highlights the importance of managing forests for multiple ecological objectives. Management decisions should be guided by broad ecological factors such as long-term ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change and multiple disturbances. Participants: Hardy, Colin C.; Dzomba, Thomas; Smith, Helen Y; Hood, Sharon M; Keane, Robert E; Reardon, James J; Coffey-Avey, Crystal; Iverson, Karen; Lutes, Duncan C; Dillon, Greg; Holsinger, Lisa; Izbicki, Brian; Leirfallom, Signe; Sikkink, Pamela; Silverstein, Robin; Clark, Jason A. ; Frame, Shelley; Systems for Environmental Management (SEM); S&K Global Solutions; U.S. Geological Survey; NEON, Inc.; Yellowstone Center for Resources; USDA Forest Service, Northern Region; University of Idaho; The University of Arizona; University of Colorado; U.S. National Park System; U.S. National Park Service; Boise State University; USDA Forest Service, Eldorado National Forest; Santa Fe National Forest Mountain Heritage Associates; Benicia Historical Museum; USDA Forest Service, San Bernardino National Forest.

Publications

Bond, W. J.; Keane, R. E. 2017. Fires, ecological effects of. Reference Module in Life Sciences. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-809633-8.02098-7.
Davis, Brett H. 2016. Mapping severe fire potential across the contiguous United States. In: Proceedings for the 5th International Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference; April 11-15, 2016; Portland, Oregon, USA. Missoula, MT: International Association of Wildland Fire. 6 p.
Grayson, Lindsay M.; Progar, Robert A.; Hood, Sharon M. 2017. Predicting post-fire tree mortality for 14 conifers in the Pacific Northwest, USA: Model evaluation, development, and thresholds. Forest Ecology and Management. 399: 213-226.
Hood, Sharon; Lutes, Duncan. 2017. Predicting post-fire tree mortality for 12 western US conifers using the First-Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM). Fire Ecology. 13(2): 66-84.
Jolly, W. Matt; Hintz, John; Linn, Rodman L.; Kropp, Rachael C.; Conrad, Elliot T.; Parsons, Russell A.; Winterkamp, Judith. 2016. Seasonal variations in red pine (Pinus resinosa) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) foliar physio-chemistry and their potential influence on stand-scale wildland fire behavior. Forest Ecology and Management. 373: 167-178.
Keane, Robert E.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Mahalovich, Mary F.; Tomback, Diana F. 2017. Evaluating future success of whitebark pine ecosystem restoration under climate change using simulation modeling. Restoration Ecology. 25(2): 220-233.
Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Wu, Zhiwei. 2017. Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates. Landscape Ecology. 32: 1447-1459.
Williamson, Grant J.; Prior, Lynda D.; Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Murphy, Brett P.; Bowman, David M. J. S. 2016. Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: The Australian case. Environmental Research Letters. 11(3): 035003.
de la Mata, Raul; Hood, Sharon; Sala, Anna. 2017. Insect outbreak shifts the direction of selection from fast to slow growth rates in the long-lived conifer Pinus ponderosa. PNAS. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1700032114.
Keane, R. 2017. Disturbance regimes and the historical range and variation in terrestrial ecosystems. Reference Module in Life Sciences. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-809633-8.02397-9.

Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
OUTPUTS: 1. The new goal of many land management agencies is to create resilient forests that will be hardy enough to absorb the impacts of current and emergent factors over the coming years such as climate change, fire exclusion, and wildland-urban development. But how will resilience be evaluated? Field studies, while preferable and reliable, will be problematic because of the large time and space scales involved. Therefore, landscape simulation modeling will have more of a role in wildland fire management as field studies become untenable. Starting in 1989, a mechanistic spatially explicit landscape fire and vegetation model called FireBGCv2 has been developed to explore landscape and ecosystem responses to climate change and to also simulate the effects of a wide gamut of management activities that can be done to create resilient and sustainable landscapes. FireBGCv2 is computer program that incorporates several types of stand dynamics models into a landscape simulation platform. FireBGCv2 is available for use but it is designed to be a research tool and it is not yet suitable for management; the complexity of the FireBGCv2 simulation platform makes it unwieldy and difficult to use without extensive training. 2. Central Oregon Fire and Forest Histories. Central Oregon contains extensive fire-adapted forests, yet managers and other decision-makers lack the information they need to assess current forest departure from historical conditions and to understand the effects of climate variation on past fires in order to anticipate the possible effects of future climate change. FFS researchers are filling these data gaps by reconstructing fire and forest histories from tree rings. In cooperation with the Central Oregon Fire Management Service, the Nature Conservancy, and a dendroecologist from the University of Arizona, FFS researchers have sampled tree rings at seven sites covering range of forest types (mixed conifer, lodgepole pine, mountain hemlock, and western juniper) to reconstruct spatial variation in historical fire regimes and forest conditions, and seven frequent-fire sites in ponderosa pine forests were sampled to reconstruct the influence of climate on regional-fire years. The researchers sampled more than 6000 trees and have quantified the historical range of variation in historical fire regimes among and within forest types. For example, lodgepole pine forests on central Oregon's pumice plateau historically sustained extensive mixed-severity fires, but the exclusion of fire since the late 1900s has altered forest and fuel structure such that mixed-severity regimes are no longer sustainable. In contrast, a millenial record of western juniper woodlands in the region revealed that fire was insignificant. The researchers have combined these data with simulation modeling of fire behavior to help managers anticipate and plan for possible fire and vegetation dynamics in the future. PARTICIPANTS: Hardy, Colin C.; Lee, Kristine; Heyerdahl, Emily K; Loehman, Rachel A.; Hao, W.; Smith, Helen Y; Hood, Sharon M; Jolly, William M; McHugh, Charles W; Fryer, Janet L; McMurray, Nancy E; Smith, Jane K; Zouhar, Kristin L; Gucker, Corey; Meyer, Rachelle S; Innes, Robin; Keane, Robert E; Reardon, James J; Coffey-Avey, Crystal; Zarbolias, Wendy; Iverson, Karen; Lutes, Duncan C; Dillon, Greg; Holsinger, Lisa; Izbicki, Brian; Leirfallom, Signe; Sikkink, Pamela; Silverstein, Robin; Clark, Jason A. ; Frame, ShelleySystems for Environmental Management (SEM); S&K Global Solutions U.S. Geological Survey; NEON, Inc.; Yellowstone Center for Resources; USDA Forest Service, Northern Region; University of Idaho; The University of Arizona; DOE Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Parks Canada; Rocky Mountain Tree Ring Research; University of Montana; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Simon Fraser University, Canada; Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada, Mexico; Peking University, China; University of Toronto, Canada; South China Agricultural University; Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies; U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention; University of Tennessee; U.S. National Park System; U.S. National Park Service; Boise State University; USDA Forest Service, Eldorado National Forest; Santa Fe National Forest Mountain Heritage Associates; Benicia Historical Museum; USDA Forest Service, San Bernardino National Forest; Jemez Mountain Research Center; Aztec Archaeological Consultants; Wild Earth Guardians; USDA Forest Service, Kootenai National Forest; The Nature Conservancy. TARGET AUDIENCES: landscape ecologists; ecologists; fire and fuel managers; fuel specialists; fire scientists; inventory and monitoring specialists; systems developers

Impacts
1. Over the last 10 years we have used FireBGCv2 to simulate climate change impacts on a number of landscapes across the US and Australia with some interesting findings. We have employed the model to simulate future streamflows and fish populations (Bitterroot River), grazing intensity effects on fire regimes (central Oregon), impacts of interacting disturbances (Glacier NP), and species and fire regime shifts (Yellowstone NP). The model is also being used to simulate human influences on fire regimes in Tasmania Australia, Jemez Mountains New Mexico, and the Ochoco Oregon. Perhaps the most important finding is that climate change impacts are highly local and driven by fine-scale factors such as topography, soils, and initial conditions. 2. In cooperation with the Central Oregon Fire Management Service (Deschutes and Ochoco National Forests and Prineville BLM), The Nature Conservancy, and a dendroecologist from the University of Arizona, FFS researchers collected field data and wood samples in central Oregon to fill data gaps by reconstructing fire and forest histories from tree rings. The researchers have combined these data with simulation modeling of fire behavior to help managers anticipate and plan for possible fire and vegetation dynamics in the future. This research will improve understanding of the drivers and impacts of fire and will help managers and others better plan for future climate change and disturbances.

Publications

Freeborn, Patrick H.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Jolly, W. Matt. 2015. Relationships between fire danger and the daily number and daily growth of active incidents burning in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF14152.
Keane, Robert E.; Jolly, Matt; Parsons, Russell; Riley, Karin. 2015. Proceedings of the large wildland fires conference; May 19-23, 2014; Missoula, MT. Proc. RMRS-P-73. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 345 p.
Keane, Robert E.; Loehman, Rachel; Clark, Jason; Smithwick, Erica A. H.; Miller, Carol. 2015. Exploring interactions among multiple disturbance agents in forest landscapes: Simulating effects of fire, beetles, and disease under climate change [Chapter 8]. In: Perera, Ajith H.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Buse, Lisa J., eds. Simulation Modeling of Forest Landscape Disturbances. Springer International Publishing. p. 201-231.
Keane, Robert E.; McKenzie, Donald; Falk, Donald A.; Smithwick, Erica A.H.; Miller, Carol; Kellogg, Lara-Karena B. 2015. Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models. Ecological Modelling. 309-310: 33-47.
Merschel, Andrew G.; Spies, Thomas A.; Heyerdahl, Emily K. 2014. Mixed-conifer forests of central Oregon: Effects of logging and fire exclusion vary with environment. Ecological Applications. 24(7): 1670-1688.
Morgan, Penelope; Keane, Robert E.; Dillon, Gregory K.; Jain, Theresa B.; Hudak, Andrew T.; Karau, Eva C.; Sikkink, Pamela G.; Holden, Zachery A.; Strand, Eva K. 2014. Challenges of assessing fire and burn severity using field measures, remote sensing and modelling. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 23: 1045-1060.
Peterson, Birgit; Nelson, Kurtis J.; Seielstad, Carl; Stoker, Jason; Jolly, W. Matt; Parsons, Russell. 2015. Automated integration of lidar into the LANDFIRE product suite. Remote Sensing Letters. 6(3): 247-256.
Riggs, Robert A.; Keane, Robert E.; Cimon, Norm; Cook, Rachel; Holsinger, Lisa; Cook, John; DelCurto, Timothy; Baggett, L.Scott; Justice, Donald; Powell, David; Vavra, Martin; Naylor, Bridgett. 2015. Biomass and fire dynamics in a temperate forest-grassland mosaic: Integrating multi-species herbivory, climate, and fire with the FireBGCv2/GrazeBGC system. Ecological Modelling. 296: 57-78.
Flower, Aquila; Gavin, Daniel G.; Heyerdahl, Emily K.; Parsons, Russell A.; Cohn, Gregory M. 2014. Western spruce budworm outbreaks did not increase fire risk over the last three centuries: A dendrochronological analysis of inter-disturbance synergism. PLoS ONE. 9(12): e114282.

Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
OUTPUTS: 1. Central Oregon Fire and Forest Histories. Central Oregon contains extensive fire-adapted forests, yet managers and other decision-makers lack the information they need to assess current forest departure from historical conditions and to understand the effects of climate variation on past fires in order to anticipate the possible effects of future climate change. Fire, Fuels and Smoke Program researchers are filling these data gaps by reconstructing fire and forest histories from tree rings. In cooperation with the Central Oregon Fire Management Service, the Nature Conservancy, and a dendroecologist from the University of Arizona, FFS researchers have sampled tree rings at seven sites covering range of forest types (mixed conifer, lodgepole pine, mountain hemlock, and western juniper) to reconstruct spatial variation in historical fire regimes and forest conditions, and seven frequent-fire sites in ponderosa pine forests were sampled to reconstruct the influence of climate on regional-fire years. The researchers sampled more than 6000 trees and have quantified the historical range of variation in historical fire regimes among and within forest types. For example, lodgepole pine forests on central Oregon's pumice plateau historically sustained extensive mixed-severity fires, but the exclusion of fire since the late 1900s has altered forest and fuel structure such that mixed-severity regimes are no longer sustainable. In contrast, a millenial record of western juniper woodlands in the region revealed that fire was insignificant. The researchers have combined these data with simulation modeling of fire behavior to help managers anticipate and plan for possible fire and vegetation dynamics in the future. 2. Climate Change Impacts on Fire Regimes. The RMRS Smoke Emission and Dispersion Research Team has been cooperating with the French Nuclear Energy Commission (CEA), France⿿s premier national earth science and engineering laboratory, to investigate the impacts of climate change on current and future fire regimes and air quality in the United States from 2000 to 2050. We study the climate impacts on the changes of vegetation type and condition (e.g. moisture content, fuel loading), frequency of fires, length of fire season, and spatial-temporal distribution of fire locations, burned areas, and emissions daily, monthly, seasonally, and annually at a 50 km resolution over the continental United States. The joint project leverages our strengths in fire science, satellite remote sensing, and fire emissions and the CEA⿿s expertise in carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and supercomputing. For the first phase of the joint project, we studied and simulated the current land cover and fire regimes using the state-of-the-art global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems) coupled with a fire regime module SPITFIRE (Spread and Intensity of Fire). The ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE model is the land-surface component of the IPSL-CM5 (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace-CM5) Earth System Model that has been used in the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report as well as in previous IPCC reports. The model simulated the daily impacts of climate change on wildfires (e.g. vegetation types and conditions, frequency of fires, length of fire season, location and size of burned areas, fire emissions) globally at a 50 km resolution. The most pronounced decrease of fuel moisture content over the continental U.S. occurred in the Southwest and Northwest and a moderate increase in the Southeast for the last 30 years. The finding demonstrates that the model simulations are consistent with other findings. PARTICIPANTS: Hardy, Colin C.; Lee, Kristine; Heyerdahl, Emily K; Loehman, Rachel A.; Hao, W.; Smith, Helen Y; Hood, Sharon M; Jolly, William M; McHugh, Charles W; Fryer, Janet L; McMurray, Nancy E; Smith, Jane K; Zouhar, Kristin L; Gucker, Corey; Meyer, Rachelle S; Innes, Robin; Keane, Robert E; Reardon, James J; Coffey-Avey, Crystal; Zarbolias, Wendy; Iverson, Karen; Lutes, Duncan C; Dillon, Greg; Holsinger, Lisa; Izbicki, Brian; Leirfallom, Signe; Sikkink, Pamela; Silverstein, Robin; Clark, Jason A. ; Frame, Shelley Systems for Environmental Management (SEM); S&K Global Solutions; U.S. Geological Survey; NEON, Inc.; Yellowstone Center for Resources; USDA Forest Service, Northern Region; University of Idaho; The University of Arizona; DOE Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Parks Canada; Rocky Mountain Tree Ring Research; University of Montana; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Simon Fraser University, Canada; Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada, Mexico; Peking University, China; University of Toronto, Canada; South China Agricultural University; Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies; U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention; University of Tennessee; U.S. National Park System; U.S. National Park Service; Boise State University; USDA Forest Service, Eldorado National Forest; Santa Fe National Forest Mountain Heritage Associates; Benicia Historical Museum; USDA Forest Service, San Bernardino National Forest; Jemez Mountain Research Center; Aztec Archaeological Consultants; Wild Earth Guardians; USDA Forest Service, Kootenai National Forest; The Nature Conservancy. TARGET AUDIENCES: Landscape ecologists; ecologists; fire and fuel managers; fuel specialists; fire scientists; inventory and monitoring specialists; systems developers

Impacts
1. In cooperation with the Central Oregon Fire Management Service (Deschutes and Ochoco National Forests and Prineville BLM), The Nature Conservancy, and a dendroecologist from the University of Arizona, FFS researchers collected field data and wood samples in central Oregon to fill data gaps by reconstructing fire and forest histories from tree rings. The researchers have combined these data with simulation modeling of fire behavior to help managers anticipate and plan for possible fire and vegetation dynamics in the future. This research will improve understanding of the drivers and impacts of fire and will help managers and others better plan for future climate change and disturbances. 2. The results from the ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE modeling efforts are crucial for estimating the historic trends of fire behavior and emissions and air quality in various geographic regions and predicting the future fire regimes. The ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE is a very powerful tool and can zoom in to any spatial and temporal resolutions provided that the high-resolution input parameters are available. This tool will allow Resource Managers to assess the current and predict the future landscape, fire regimes, carbon cycle, and their trends at a 1 km level in a Ranger District for the United States.

Publications

Cohn, Gregory M.; Parsons, Russell A.; Heyerdahl, Emily K.; Gavin, Daniel G.; Flower, Aquila. 2014. Simulated western spruce budworm defoliation reduces torching and crowning potential: A sensitivity analysis using a physics-based fire model. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 23: 709-720.
Flower, A.; Gavin, D. G.; Heyerdahl, E. K.; Parsons, R. A.; Cohn, G. M. 2014. Drought-triggered western spruce budworm outbreaks in the Interior Pacific Northwest: A multi-century dendrochronological record. Forest Ecology and Management. 324: 16-27.
Holsinger, Lisa; Keane, Robert E.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Eby, Lisa; Young, Michael K. 2014. Relative effects of climate change and wildfires on stream temperatures: A simulation modeling approach in a Rocky Mountain watershed. Climatic Change. 124: 191-206.
Ireland, Kathryn B.; Moore, Margaret M.; Fule, Peter Z.; Zegler, Thomas J.; Keane, Robert E. 2014. Slow lifelong growth predisposes Populus tremuloides to tree mortality. Oecologia. 175(3): 847-859.
Keane, Robert E.; Cary, Geoffrey J.; Flannigan, Mike D.; Parsons, Russell A.; Davies, Ian D.; King, Karen J.; Li, Chao; Bradstock, Ross A.; Gill, Malcolm. 2013. Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling. Ecological Modelling. 266: 172-186.
Keane, Robert E.; Gray, Kathy. 2013. Comparing three sampling techniques for estimating fine woody down dead biomass. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 22: 1093-1107.

Progress 10/01/12 to 09/30/13

Outputs
OUTPUTS: 1. Central Oregon Fire and Forest Histories. Central Oregon contains extensive fire-adapted forests, yet managers and other decision-makers lack the information they need to assess current forest departure from historical conditions and to understand the effects of climate variation on past fires in order to anticipate the possible effects of future climate change. FFS researchers are filling these data gaps by reconstructing fire and forest histories from tree rings. In cooperation with the Central Oregon Fire Management Service, the Nature Conservancy, and a dendroecologist from the University of Arizona, FFS researchers have sampled tree rings at seven sites covering range of forest types (mixed conifer, lodgepole pine, mountain hemlock, and western juniper) to reconstruct spatial variation in historical fire regimes and forest conditions, and seven frequent-fire sites in ponderosa pine forests were sampled to reconstruct the influence of climate on regional-fire years. The researchers sampled more than 6000 trees and have quantified the historical range of variation in historical fire regimes among and within forest types. For example, lodgepole pine forests on central Oregon's pumice plateau historically sustained extensive mixed-severity fires, but the exclusion of fire since the late 1900s has altered forest and fuel structure such that mixed-severity regimes are no longer sustainable. In contrast, a millenial record of western juniper woodlands in the region revealed that fire was insignificant. The researchers have combined these data with simulation modeling of fire behavior to help managers anticipate and plan for possible fire and vegetation dynamics in the future. 2. Climate Change Impacts on Fire Regimes. The RMRS Smoke Emission and Dispersion Research Team has been cooperating with the French Nuclear Energy Commission (CEA), France⿿s premier national earth science and engineering laboratory, to investigate the impacts of climate change on current and future fire regimes and air quality in the United States from 2000 to 2050. We study the climate impacts on the changes of vegetation type and condition (e.g. moisture content, fuel loading), frequency of fires, length of fire season, and spatial-temporal distribution of fire locations, burned areas, and emissions daily, monthly, seasonally, and annually at a 50 km resolution over the continental United States. The joint project leverages our strengths in fire science, satellite remote sensing, and fire emissions and the CEA⿿s expertise in carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and supercomputing. For the first phase of the joint project, we studied and simulated the current land cover and fire regimes using the state-of-the-art global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems) coupled with a fire regime module SPITFIRE (Spread and Intensity of Fire). The ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE model is the land-surface component of the IPSL-CM5 (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace-CM5) Earth System Model that has been used in the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report as well as in previous IPCC reports. The model simulated the daily impacts of climate change on wildfires (e.g. vegetation types and conditions, frequency of fires, length of fire season, location and size of burned areas, fire emissions) globally at a 50 km resolution. The most pronounced decrease of fuel moisture content over the continental U.S. occurred in the Southwest and Northwest and a moderate increase in the Southeast for the last 30 years. The finding demonstrates that the model simulations are consistent with other findings. PARTICIPANTS: 1. Program Staff: Hardy, Colin C.; Lee, Kristine; Heyerdahl, Emily K; Loehman, Rachel A.; Hao, W.;Harrington, Michael G; Ryan, Kevin C.; Smith, Helen Y; Hood, Sharon M; Jolly, William M; McHugh, Charles W; Fryer, Janet L; McMurray, Nancy E; Smith, Jane K; Zouhar, Kristin L; Gucker, Corey; Meyer, Rachelle S; Innes, Robin; Keane, Robert E; Reardon, James J; Coffey-Avey, Crystal; Zarbolias, Wendy; Iverson, Karen; Lutes, Duncan C; Dillon, Greg; Holsinger, Lisa; Izbicki, Brian; Leirfallom, Signe; Sikkink, Pamela; Silverstein, Robin; Clark, Jason A. 2. Contractors: Systems for Environmental Management (SEM); S&K Global Solutions. 3. Cooperators and additional participants: U.S. Geological Survey; NEON, Inc.; Yellowstone Center for Resources; USDA Forest Service, Northern Region; University of Idaho; The University of Arizona; DOE Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Parks Canada; Rocky Mountain Tree Ring Research; University of Montana; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Simon Fraser University, Canada; Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada, Mexico; Peking University, China; University of Toronto, Canada; South China Agricultural University; Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies; U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention; University of Tennessee; U.S. National Park System; U.S. National Park Service; Boise State University; USDA Forest Service, Eldorado National Forest; Santa Fe National Forest Mountain Heritage Associates; Benicia Historical Museum; USDA Forest Service, San Bernardino National Forest; Jemez Mountain Research Center; Aztec Archaeological Consultants; Wild Earth Guardians; USDA Forest Service, Kootenai National Forest; The Nature Conservancy. TARGET AUDIENCES: Target Audiences: landscape ecologists; ecologists; fire and fuel managers; fuel specialists; fire scientists; inventory and monitoring specialists; systems developers

Impacts
1. In cooperation with the Central Oregon Fire Management Service (Deschutes and Ochoco National Forests and Prineville BLM), The Nature Conservancy, and a dendroecologist from the University of Arizona, FFS researchers collected field data and wood samples in central Oregon to fill data gaps by reconstructing fire and forest histories from tree rings. The researchers have combined these data with simulation modeling of fire behavior to help managers anticipate and plan for possible fire and vegetation dynamics in the future. This research will improve understanding of the drivers and impacts of fire and will help managers and others better plan for future climate change and disturbances. 2. The results from the ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE modeling efforts are crucial for estimating the historic trends of fire behavior and emissions and air quality in various geographic regions and predicting the future fire regimes. The ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE is a very powerful tool and can zoom in to any spatial and temporal resolutions provided that the high-resolution input parameters are available. This tool will allow Resource Managers to assess the current and predict the future landscape, fire regimes, carbon cycle, and their trends at a 1 km level in a Ranger District for the United States.

Publications

Keane, Robert E.; Cary, Geoffrey J.; Flannigan, Mike D.; Parsons, Russell A.; Davies, Ian D.; King, Karen J.; Li, Chao; Bradstock, Ross A.; Gill, Malcolm. 2013. Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling. Forest Ecology and Management. 266: 172-186.
McWethy, D. B.; Higuera, P. E.; Whitlock, C.; Veblen, T. T.; Bowman, D. M. J. S.; Cary, G. J.; Haberle, S. G.; Keane, R. E.; Maxwell, B. D.; McGlone, M. S.; Perry, G. L. W.; Wilmshurst, J. M. 2013. A conceptual framework for predicting temperate ecosystem sensitivity to human impacts on fire regimes. Global Ecology and Biography. 22: 900-912.
Harrington, Michael G. 2012. Duff mound consumption and cambium injury for centuries-old western larch from prescribed burning in western Montana. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 22: 359-367.
Hood, Sharon M.; Smith, Helen Y.; Wright, David K.; Glasgow, Lance S. 2012. Management guide to ecosystem restoration treatments: two-aged lodgepole pine forests of central Montana, USA. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-294. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 126 p.