Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
The overarching objective is to develop an experimental, decadal climate impacts prediction and adaptive management system, using the Missouri River Basin (Basin hereafter) as a case study. Building on a variety of Earth System Models (EaSMs) and a stakeholder-policymaker network, the system may be ready for experimental use by the end of the project. Disciplinary and cross-disciplinary expertise and insights of a unique team of investigators and collaborators from the Center for Research on the Changing Earth System; Texas A & M University, National Drought Mitigation Center at University of Nebraska-Lincoln, University of Maryland-Baltimore County, and Universiry of Wisconsin-Madison; and the National Center for Atmospheric Research will be brought together with EaSMs, observed data, and a stakeholder-policymaker network to address grand challenges inherent in assessment and prediction of decadal climate and its impacts on society, and for development of climate-adaptive water and agriculture management systems. Results of this project will be disseminated broadly. The society-at-large will also benefit greatly by methods, data, and information to be generated in this project; they will be used for guidance in agriculture, transportation, reservoir operations, municipal water supply and drainage systems, fisheries and wildlife hatcheries, electricity-generation industry, power plant operations, water-based recreation industry, and state and federal government decisions. The methods developed will serve as a prototype for development of similar systems elsewhere.
Animal Health Component
(N/A)
Research Effort Categories
Basic
70%
Applied
30%
Developmental
(N/A)
Goals / Objectives
The overarching objective is to develop an experimental, comprehensive, decadal climate impacts prediction and adaptive decision-making evaluation system using the Missouri River Basin (Basin hereafter) as a case study. Specific objectives of the proposed research are to: (1) assess the fidelity of simulations and hindcasts (retrospective predictions) of two major decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Ttropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature gradient, and their effects on the Basin's hydro-meteorology by two global EaSMs (GEaSMs) participating in the World Climate Research Program's CMIP5 project; (2) downscale simulated and hindcast data from the relatively coarse spatial resolution GEaSMs to relatively high spatial resolution as input to water and crop yield models; (3) quantify decadal predictability of water and crop yields in the Basin, using the downscaled GEaSM data and hydro-meteorological observations-based DCV scenarios in the HUMUS-SWAT land use-hydrology-crop model; (4) quantify the value of adaptive actions given decadal predictions of water and crop yields in terms of potential economic and other societal impacts, using the FASOM and RIVERSIM economic impacts models; (5) develop an experimental decadal climate and impacts prediction system for the Basin using hydrologic, crop, and economic models; and downscaled data from GEaSMs, along with DCV scenarios based on observed hydro-meteorological data; and (6) develop water and crop management systems instructed by decadal climate and impacts predictions and assess their effectiveness through interactions with stakeholders in the Basin.
Project Methods
The proposed project will aim to assess predictions of decadal climate variability (DCV) and its societal impacts in the Missouri River Basin (Basin hereafter) through a better understanding of coupled physical, biological, and human processes; quantify impacts of DCV on agricultural and other human systems, and identify and quantify feedback loops through which human systems help determine outcomes of DCV; maximize utility of available observational and global Earth System Model (GEaSM) data for impact and vulnerability/resilience assessments through downscaling activities; and effectively translate results from GEaSMs, and hydrology, crop, and economic impact models and the uncertainties associated with them into a scientific basis for well-informed societal adaptation to and management decisions for decadal climate and impacts prediction in the Basin. In this project, disciplinary and cross-disciplinary expertise and insights of a unique team of investigators and collaborators, EaSMs, a variety of observed data, and a stakeholder-policymaker network will be brought together, perhaps for the first time, to address grand challenges inherent in assessment and prediction of decadal climate and its impacts on society, and for development of climate-adaptive water and agriculture management systems, especially for a very important agricultural region of the U.S. The investigators' previous research has shown that development of climate-adaptive management systems may be feasible, but it will require integration of all of the aforementioned components of this project.