Progress 10/01/08 to 09/30/13
Outputs
Target Audience: Colleagues who will be potential collaborators in similar and related subsequent studies, professionals who use similar monitoring and analysis techniques. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Yes. A minimum of three students working in closely-related areas were awarded graduate degrees during the course of the project. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Scientific articles, presentations at professional meetings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Substantial progress was made regarding quantification of uncertainty, in both space and time, as it relates to key hydrologic and water quality parameters that affect both experimental and modeling results. As a result, there is a much more detailed and practical understanding of the degree to which runoff-generating characteristics can change in time and space, as well as how soil sampling strategies can influence the characterization of nutrient availability, which is in turn propogated throughout both observed and modeled nutrient concentrations in runoff.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Maupin, T.P., C.T. Agouridis, D.R. Edwards, C.D. Barton, R.C. Warner, and M.P. Sama. Specific Conductivity Sensor Performance: II. Field Evaluation. International Journal of Mining, Reclamation and Environment. Early View. doi: 10.1080/17480930.2013.764702 (jif: 0.392)
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
D.J. Stamper, C.T. Agouridis, D.R. Edwards, and M.A. Purschwitz. Effect of Soil Sampling Density and Landscape Characteristics on Soil Test Phosphorus.
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Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Work during the previous calendar year has transitioned from primarily model-oriented to experimental/data collection as our experimental runoff plots and rainfall simulators have been refurbished in preparation for studies to assess the runoff transport of antibiotics in various animal manures. Experimental protocols are still in development with data collection anticipated for Summer 2012, but our anticipation is to include some or all of the following categories: fluoroquinolones, tetracyclines, sulfonamides, and trimethoprim. At a minimum, we will be investigating swine and poultry manure as the waste sources. One graduate student is currently training under this activity. PARTICIPANTS: Participant: Carmen Agouridis, Assistant Professor, Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering Department, University of Kentucky. We expect to collaborate with Carl Bolster, USDA-ARS, Bowling Green, Kentucky. TARGET AUDIENCES: Preliminary target will be professional scientists and academics, anticipating dissemination to outreach professionals. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
No outcomes of the current major activity are presently available; however, given the relatively sparse information available on the topic, the findings can quickly become relevant in the context of acquired antibiotic resistance in waterborne pathogenic organisms.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/10 to 12/31/10
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Previously reported work has been extended to quantify and demonstrate the amounts of and interactions between hydrologic/water quality model uncertainty and model parameter uncertainty, both of which are related to Tasks 9 and 10 of Objective 1. These results have been presented and discussed, thus far, at professional seminars and invited presentations. Presentation is scheduled for the next professional meeting with preparation of a peer-reviewed publication to follow. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.
Impacts
In contrast to earlier work, which examined model and parameter uncertainty conditioned on particular existing data sets, recent work has investigated whether it is possible to make inferences under conditions of no data or very limited data. These findings are much more site-specific and context-specific than previous findings, since at least some data (even if from a different site and/or context) are required to extend results to a situation of no data. The basic conclusion is that uncertainty inferences, similar to accuracy of the models themselves, depend on the similarity between the situation to be modeled and situations that have already been modeled. Furthermore, more analyses of a comparable nature will have to be completed before uncertainty statements prior to data collection can be made with appreciable precision. The effect of small data sets on uncertainty appears to be highly complex; in the case of very simple models, small data sets enable parameter uncertainty to be determined nearly completely, with little marginal reduction in uncertainty associated with additional data. In the case of relatively complex models, the effect of additional data appears to depend on the model's intrinsic capability to model the situation, with the ultimately more accurate models demonstrating parameter uncertainty reductions but with little (if any) reduction in the cases of less accurate models. With models being used increasingly in litigation situations, the findings can be of assistance in both selecting models of choice and in interpreting the results, most notably in the context of what can be inferred from the results.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Near the end of the study period, a study was completed that investigated total uncertainty, its components of model and parameter uncertainty, and how all types of uncertainty are influenced by model selection. These topics are specifically related to Tasks 9 and 10 of Objective 1. This study being largely a work in progress through the calendar year, dissemination of the findings has been largely informal, though communications with colleagues at other institutions. The technical outputs (probability distributions of model predictions, model parameters, and model correctness for different candidate models), however, are scheduled for presentation at upcoming professional meetings followed by publication. PARTICIPANTS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
Work to date indicates that, at under at least some conditions, there are some advantages to using relatively complex hydrologic/water quality models in terms of lesser prediction uncertainty. The relationships between parameter and model uncertainty are more subtle, however, depending greatly on the amount of model calibration data available and the number of parameters present in the model. The findings additionally indicate that prediction uncertainty is highly dependent on uncertainty in only a few key model parameters, depending on model structure and subsequent calculations involving those parameters, a result that is consistent with sensitivity analysis. Given the very limited duration of the project, impacts are necessarily limited; however, the results will most naturally find their application in litigation involving hydrologic/water quality models and in the design of data collection projects having the goal of calibrating hydrologic/water quality models.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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