| Monitoring Forever Chemicals in Rural Water Supplies: Data Analytic Tools to Predict Water Pollution Using Existing Data | | NIFA Non Formula | 2026-67023-45807 | 2026 | UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS | Jessoe, K. | 01/15/2026 | 01/14/2030 | 2026 | ACTIVE | $591,500.00 | CALIFORNIA | 90% | Not applicable | 10% | This project supports the mission of the Agricultural Experiment Station by addressing the Hatch Act area(s) of: soil and water conservation and use; human nutrition; rural and community development.The long-term sustainability of U.S. agriculture and food systems hinges on access to safe drinking and agricultural water supplies. This proposal seeks to aid in providing Americans with safe and nutritious food, and improve the quality of life in rural communities.Emerging evidence associates large human health and economic costs with 'forever chemicals', and has induced the EPA to take action. Human health costs from the consumption of PFAS in drinking water supplies led the EPA in April 2024 to regulate six PFAS contaminants under the Safe Drinking Water Act (USEPA, 2024a). And large economics costs to agriculture from livestock deaths and farm shutdowns have spurred the EPA to investigate the agricultural risks from PFAS in fertilizer (USEPA, 2024b). However, an impediment to understanding the magnitude of PFAS levels in drinking water sources and agricultural water sources is a lack of monitoring and testing.This proposal aims to fill a pressing gap in our understanding of the human health and agricultural costs of environmental pollution in rural communities by proposing an alter-native approach to predicting PFAS concentrations in water supplies. It directly addresses the Environmental and Natural Resource Economics priority in the Agricultural Economics and Rural Communities program area. Proposal objectives focus on data compilation, prediction tool performance, and the development of a data analytic model to predict PFAS levels in agricultural and drinking water supplies where direct testing is not available. These objectives speak directly to the program priority directives to expand existing data sets and advance innovative models and econometric approaches to examine the interrelationship of natural resources and the environment with agriculture and rural communities. They also fit within program area priority topical areas that "examine environmental policies and their impact on agriculture and rural communities" and "explore the economic efficiency impacts of alternative approaches for monitoring."The primary outcome of this project - a PFAS prediction tool - will provide farmers and rural communities with a viable, lasting and low-cost approach to monitor PFAS levels in drinking and agricultural water supplies. Currently, PFAS monitoring occurs in a patchwork of locations and at infrequent intervals. This makes it difficult, if impossible, for communities and farmers to assess if 'forever chemicals' pose a concern. Our prediction tool offers an interim solution to monitor 'forever chemicals' in drinking water supplies (prior to the implementation of SDWA regulations), a monitoring option for rural communities and domestic drinking wells that are not subject to the SDWA, and a feasible and low cost tool for farmers to measure PFAS levels on their land. Expanded PFAS monitoring in agricultural and rural communities will improve U.S. agriculture and food systems. This is because new and improved information on PFAS levels in agricultural water supplies will aid in providing all American with safe food, and expand access to information on drinking water quality to (rural) communities not subject to the Safe Drinking Water Act (Lade et al., 2024). Predictions on PFAS levels can also improve food safety by directing testing to the riskiest locations, and offer some of the first guidance on where PFAS testing should be prioritized in rural communities and agricultural areas.In addition to the development of a data analytic tool that makes use of existing datasets to provide PFAS concentration predictions in unmonitored locations, this project will emphasize graduate student training in and undergraduate exposure to agricultural economics, environmental economics and data analytics. This project will focus on training one or two graduate students in state of the art data analytic tools and mentoring them in the application of these methods to questions in environmental and agricultural economics. One objective of this hands-on and experience-based advising is to help a graduate student develop a research agenda that applies modern prediction tools to pressing issues in water policy. A second is to position a graduate student to become a future research leader in agricultural and environmental economics. The educational and training experience of this proposal will extend to undergraduate students, with the intention of exposing and encouraging these students to pursue graduate training in environmental, resource and agricultural economics. We have allocated funding to undergraduate research assistants and we plan to hire them to aid in data collection. This will provide students with perhaps their first and only research experience. Our goal is that this exposure facilitates in-depth discussions about research in environmental and agricultural economics, and whets their appetite to pursue further studies. | The overarching goal of the proposed project is to combine newly proposed prediction methods with existing data to develop a new approach to predict PFAS concentrations in the absence of direct monitoring. This will allow for the monitoring of water quality in areas where PFAS may harm human health, food supplies and livestock. The proposed objectives and activities to achieve this goal are:Build a national and publicly available PFAS database by collecting and compiling data from states and localities that implemented voluntary or mandatory PFAS monitoring. Compile and combine systematically collected data that may be correlated with PFAS concentrations. These include PFAS sources (e.g. wastewater treatment plants), water quality measures for contaminants regulated under the SDWA, and weather. Evaluate and quantify the performance of recently developed data analytic tools in econometrics and machine learning in predicting PFAS levels. Train and validate models in settings with PFAS observations to determine the combination of variables that best predict PFAS levels. Assess out of sample model performance spatially and temporally. Propose an approach that can be used by regulators to monitor PFAS in the absence of direct monitoring, and make clear the limitations and constraints of this approach. This approach can inform the targeted testing of PFAS testing in the riskiest locations, improving the cost-effectiveness of monitoring.Train one or two graduate students to pursue a research agenda that uses data analytics to improve monitoring of water pollution, and a career that combines applied econometrics with agricultural and resource economics. Expose undergraduate students to the field of and research in agricultural and resource economics. |
| Partnership: Gridded Economic Analysis of the Impacts of Global Conservation on US Agriculture and Rural Economies | | NIFA Non Formula | 2026-67023-45872 | 2026 | PURDUE UNIVERSITY | Haqiqi, I. | 03/01/2026 | 02/28/2029 | 2026 | ACTIVE | $728,000.00 | INDIANA | 90% | 10% | Not applicable | Global conservation policies, such as the proposals to set aside 30% of global land for nature, can affect world agricultural production and commodity prices driving changes in US cropland and pastureland. This will have implications for the environment and rural communities as well as natural resources and ecosystem services. The overall goal of this project is to improve our understanding of the linkage between global conservation policies and the fine-scale impacts on land use in the US. More specifically, the proposed research will improve our understanding of the impacts of global conservation policy scenarios on US farmland rents, rural wages, and rural communities, including those governed by Native American tribes. We will assess the consequences for natural resources and ecosystem services and potential feedback effects on agricultural productivity. The proposed research will construct a validated high-resolution multi-crop partial equilibrium model of agriculture and land use, nested within a global economic framework and linked to high-resolution models of natural resources and ecosystem services. This study proposes structural estimation of model parameters, systematic determination of the global conservation scenarios, multi-scale economic policy analysis, and assessment of the mutual benefits to agriculture from the conservation of natural capital. Rigorous validation of this framework will contribute to its usefulness to stakeholders, including Native American geoscientists with whom we will engage in discussions of potential implications for governance in order to maximize thebenefits. | The overall goal of this project is to understand how large-scale global land-based conservation policies can affect U.S. agriculture. The project focuses on how global conservation efforts influence U.S. farmers and rural economies through agricultural markets, trade, and land-use changes, and how natural resources and ecosystem services can, in turn, support agricultural productivity and long-term rural prosperity.U.S. agriculture is deeply connected to global markets. Decisions made outside the United States, such as setting aside land for conservation purposes, can change crop prices, production patterns, land values, and job opportunities in U.S. farming sector. At the same time, natural resources and ecosystem services can generate benefits for agriculture through improved yields. This project seeks to provide clear, practical evidence on these tradeoffs and opportunities so that policymakers, farmers, and communities can make informed agricultural decisions.To accomplish this goal, this project will develop a high-resolution multi-crop quantitative framework with a comprehensive land cover profile for natural, protected, and commercial land (cropland, pastureland, and managed forest). By constructing a set of global scenarios, the project team will evaluate theimpacts on land use worldwide,couple this scnearios with a set of fine-resolution models of natural capital and ecosystem services for the U.S. which will allow for feedback to agricultural production. This framework will be used to quantify the impacts of global land-based conservation policies on U.S. farm households, workers, agricultural activity, land, and water resources at the local, regional, and national scales. This project will also investigate the likely mutualism between agricultural production and ecosystem services, exploring how these two components can benefit one another in the context of global changes.The project will pursue the following specific objectives:Objective 1. Develop a detailed analytical framework for agricultural markets that links global conservation policies to local impacts on U.S. agriculture, land use, farm income, and rural economies, using high-resolution spatial data.Objective 2. Evaluate the market impacts of alternative global conservation strategies for achieving the 30 percent land protection goal and assess how different approaches affect food production, trade, land use, and economic outcomes.Objective 3. Measure implied changes in U.S. natural resources and ecosystem services, and estimate how improvements in natural systems can enhance agricultural productivity considering geospatial differences.Objective 4. Assess impacts on rural and tribal communities under different market conditions, including effects on farm income, land rents, employment, and agricultural labor markets, with special attention to Native American lands and governance structures.Objective 5. Engage stakeholders and decision-makers to share findings, gather feedback, and ensure that results are relevant, transparent, and useful for real-world agricultural decisions. |
| Producer Attitudes Towards Groundwater Conservation Policies and Programs in the High Plains Aquifer Region | | NIFA Non Formula | 2026-67024-45785 | 2026 | OKLAHOMA STATE UNIVERSITY | Thapa, B. | 05/01/2026 | 04/30/2029 | 2026 | ACTIVE | $649,946.00 | OKLAHOMA | 100% | Not applicable | Not applicable | Groundwater from the High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer is essential to agriculture, rural communities, food production, and local economies across the southern High Plains, including Oklahoma. This aquifer supports irrigated farming that helps keep food affordable, sustains farm families, and contributes billions of dollars to the regional economy. However, groundwater is being pumped faster than it can naturally recharge, leading to declining water levels that threaten long-term agricultural productivity, rural livelihoods, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems such as rivers and wetlands. In Oklahoma, groundwater conservation policies and monitoring programs are more limited than in neighboring states, creating uncertainty about how to balance private property rights, farm profitability, efficient water use,and long-term water availability. Research is needed to better understand which conservation approaches work, how producers view them, and how policies and programs can be designed to protect water resources while supporting agriculture and rural communities.This project will gather information in practical, straightforward ways. Researchers will compare groundwater laws and programs across High Plains states, survey agricultural producers about their experiences, concerns, and use of USDA conservation programs, and evaluate how educational efforts influence understanding and decision-making over time. The project will also examine the costs and benefits of different groundwater conservation options to understand their economic and environmental tradeoffs. Results will be shared through Extension programs, fact sheets, and policy briefs so they are accessible to producers, policymakers, and the public. The ultimate goal is to provide clear, evidence-based information that helps communities, agencies, and lawmakers make informed decisions about groundwater management and efficient water use. If successful, the project will support more sustainable use of groundwater, help protect farm viability and rural economies, and contribute to long-term water security for future generations. | The goal of this project is to collaborate with agricultural producers and stakeholders to inform groundwater policies and programs that promote long-term agricultural sustainability and efficient use of groundwater in the southern High Plains aquifer region, with a focus on Oklahoma. While Kansas and Texas have implemented more robust policy and program initiatives for irrigated agriculture, Oklahoma has lagged in addressing groundwater management. With groundwater resources in Oklahoma becoming increasingly scarce, there is a pressing need for research that offers stakeholders practical and effective solutions, like those successfully employed in Kansas and Texas. Oklahoma has been chosen as the focus of this study due to the growing urgency for sustainable groundwater management strategies. These research questions and objectives are informed by our deep engagement with County Extension Offices, the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, and local irrigators, all of whom are dedicated to ensuring the long-term sustainability of family farms in Oklahoma.Related to our goal, we will accomplish the following objectives:1)Comprehensive overview and comparative analysis of existing groundwater monitoring legislation across eightHigh Plains aquifer states.2)Assess producers' awareness, participation, and support for expanding the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP).3)Evaluate irrigators' attitudes and perspectives on groundwater conservation policies and their willingness to adopt advanced water management technologies.4)Evaluate impact of educational programs on irrigators' attitudes and adoption of groundwater conservation technologies and policies in Oklahoma. |
| The Iowa Rural Drinking Water Initiative: Reducing Pollution Exposure and Increasing Participation in Well Water Quality Testing Programs | | NIFA Non Formula | 2026-67023-46057 | 2026 | IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY | Comito, J. | 05/01/2026 | 04/30/2029 | 2026 | ACTIVE | $590,395.00 | IOWA | 80% | 10% | 10% | Nutrient pollution from row crop agriculture poses a significant threat to U.S. water quality. An understudied but critical cost of this pollution falls on rural households using private wells, who face risks from nitrate contamination. This project builds on the successful Iowa Rural Drinking Water Initiative (IRDWI) to address this challenge. The project will: (i) conduct a long-run follow-up survey to determine if prior informational interventions produced lasting changes in household water testing and avoidance behaviors; (ii) launch a new survey wave to deepen our understanding of households' responses to water quality information; (iii) develop and evaluate lower-cost, scalable outreach interventions based on previous extension work; and (iv) test the validity of stated preference survey methods by comparing hypothetical willingness-to-pay (WTP) responses for test strips against those from an incentive-compatible, real-payments design. Ultimately, this research will generate critical insights into the, to date, unquantified public health benefits of programs that reduce nutrient pollution from agriculture. | 1. Understand rural households' drinking water sources and their expenses associated with avoiding in-home water pollution exposure;2. Identify behavioral and financial obstacles preventing rural residents from regularly testing their well water quality and mitigating risk;3. Determine whether simple interventions can cost-effectively promote households' participation in water quality testing programs and increase households' avoidance behaviors, ultimately reducing nitrate exposure;4. Develop insights and tools to help policymakers make better decisions to support these households; and5. Better understand the social well being of agricultural conservation policies that reduce nitrogen pollution by assessing households' willingness to pay (WTP) for nitrate testing and mitigation measures. |