Progress 12/01/08 to 11/30/13
Outputs
Target Audience: Michigan Department of Natural Resources researchers and managers; Natural resources managers for Native American tribes in Michigan and the Upper Midwest; U.S. Forest Service biologists in Michigan and the Great Lakes states; Academic, State, Federal and Private researchers in wildlife ecology; Federal and State waterfowl biologists and managers; Mississippi Flyway Committee; Upper Mississippi River Great Lakes Region Joint Venture; Recreational wildlife users in Michigan and the Upper Midwest; Duck hunters in the Upper Midwest and Canada. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Over the course of this five-year project, four M.S. degrees were granted to students working on population demographic related projects. Two of these students are pursuing doctoral degrees and two are working as professional wildlife biologists. Each of these students was provided with the opportunity to design and carry out a research project. These students also gained significant experience communicating with professional and public audiences about the impact of their research. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Research results were made available to the scientific community through manuscripts submitted to professional journals for peer review, including The Journal of Wildlife Management, Wildlife Society Bulletin, and Journal of Great Lakes Research. Oral and poster presentations were made at regional and national meetings and conferences. Interim and annual reports were submitted to federal, state and private funding agencies as per the contract requirements with these agencies. Information was made available to the nonscientific community through public presentations (e.g., three public meetings to discuss a potential moose hunt in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan). Additionally project summaries were posted to appropriate web sites, list servers and bulletin boards. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Wildlife can contribute significantly to the quality of life in a region, but can also negatively impact humans. The successful management of wildlife populations will ensure healthy animal populations which have limited detrimental effects on humans. This project developed population assessment methodologies and predictive models for the efficient management of wildlife resources. Based on our research, we were able to make recommendations to state and federal agencies for the efficient management of wildlife resources. Work conducted under this Research Project focused on the estimation of demographic parameters for Michigan wildlife, including moose and waterfowl. These projects included: 1) development of a stochastic population projection model for moose in the west-central Upper Peninsula of Michigan, 2) development of field and statistical methodologies to determine the distribution and abundance of diving ducks on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie, and 3) examination of factors affecting survival, harvest rates, and breeding abundance estimates of Great Lakes States’ mallards. All three of these studies are continuing. Objective 1) Develop generalized population dynamics models which can be applied to management plans for wild populations and Objective 2) Develop methodologies to estimate demographic parameters (e.g., population size, survival rates, sex and age distribution) for wild populations: The moose projection model is based on the results of a seven-year study of moose ecology in the west-central portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and was requested by the Michigan Moose Advisory Council. The Michigan Moose Advisory Council was formed by the Michigan Legislature and was required to submit recommendations with respect to whether a moose hunting season should be established and to suggest the number of moose to be harvested. The Moose Advisory Council was further directed to consider the effect a hunting season would have on Michigan’s moose population. The moose projection model examines the impact of various levels of annual hunting pressure by comparing the model’s three primary outputs: 1) percentage of the simulations that result in extinction of the population by 2050, 2) average population size in 2050, and 3) percentage of the simulations that yield an average annual growth rate of at least 3%. The results of our modeling efforts were used by the Moose Advisory Council to shape their final recommendations. In their final report, the Moose Advisory Council noted that, “Dr. Winterstein provided invaluable assistance with modeling the Michigan moose herd, utilizing known research and exploring likely outcomes given various approaches to managing a potential moose harvest.” Objective 2) Develop methodologies to estimate demographic parameters (e.g., population size, survival rates, sex and age distribution) for wild populations: Waterfowl conservation organizations in the Great Lakes region make substantial annual investments in programs for local and migratory waterfowl. The success of these programs hinges not only upon attracting birds to restored or enhanced habitat but also on increasing and accurately estimating key vital rates that influence population growth. The purpose of the diving duck study was to improve conservation planning by identifying factors affecting temporal and spatial dynamics of diving duck populations during migration. Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie are important migration staging areas for diving ducks including canvasbacks, redheads, and lesser and greater scaup. The methodology and model we developed for estimating the number of diving ducks utilizing Lake St. Clair (U.S. and Canadian waters) and western Lake Erie during the fall and spring migrations are now available for use by State, Federal and Flyway biologists and managers. Objective 3) Evaluate existing population estimation techniques and models as they can be applied to wild populations: Understanding landscape-level correlates of female mallard survival during the breeding season and determining factors affecting survival, harvest rates, and breeding abundance estimates of Great Lake State’s mallards will lead to more effective habitat implementation with the expectation that improved survival and population growth will follow. In addition, survival estimates will serve as a baseline to evaluate whether Upper Mississippi River Great Lakes Region Joint Venture future implementation activities improve female breeding season and overall annual survival. The purpose of the mallard harvest rate and breeding abundance study is to (1) evaluate the relative support for models predicting survival and harvest rates of mallards banded in the Great Lakes Region, (2) contrast harvest and survival rates of mallards before and after the initiation of Adaptive Harvest Management frameworks in the Mississippi Flyway, (3) evaluate the relationship between wetland abundance, regional hydrological conditions, and spring mallard abundance and (4) make recommendations to management agencies about the efficacy of adopting hunting regulations that are more restrictive than the federal regulatory frameworks.
Publications
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Morales-Vega, Esther. Avian biodiversity and breeding ecology long the northern boundary of Mar Negro Unit at Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve: a baseline assessment. Unpublished Master's Thesis. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife. Michigan State University.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Shirkey, Brendan T. Diving duck abundance and distribution on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie. Unpublished Master's Thesis. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife. Michigan State University.
- Type:
Book Chapters
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Luukkonen, D.R., E.N. Kafcas, B. T. Shirkey and S. R. Winterstein. Impacts of Dreissenid mussels on diving duck distribution and abundance on Lake St. Clair. In Quagga and zebra mussels: Biology, impacts and control (2nd edition). Nalepa, T. F. and D. Schloesser, eds.). CRC Press.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Shirkey, B.T., D.R. Luukkonen, and S. R. Winterstein. Application of Distance Sampling Techniques for Diving Ducks on Lake St. Clair and Western Lake Erie. Journal of Great Lakes Research.
- Type:
Book Chapters
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Shirkey, B.T., D.R. Luukkonen and S.R. Winterstein. 2012. Developing spatially-explicit models to guide conservation of diving ducks during migration. Pages 5-9 5-14. In State of the Strait: Use of remote sensing and GIS to better manage the Huron-Erie corridor. (Francoeur, S., L. Cargnelli, A. Cook, J. Hartig, J. Gannon and G. Norwood eds.) Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research, Occasional Publication No. 7, University of Windsor, Ontario, Canada.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Longstaff, S., H. Campa, III, S.R. Winterstein, E. Dunton, S. Kahl, and A. Locher. Bucks and ducks: Evaluating how wetlands are impacted by white-tailed deer. Ducks Unlimited Seminar Series. Ann Arbor, Michigan.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Longstaff, S., H. Campa, III, A. Locher, S.R. Winterstein, E. Dunton, and S. Kahl. Hunting not just recreation but also conservation: Evaluating how deer hunting opportunities help conserve wetland vegetation types and waterfowl food resources at Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge. Stewardship Network Conference. Lansing, MI
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Luukkonen, D.R., E.N. Kafcas, B.T.Shirkey, S.R. Winterstein and G. J. Soulliere. Fall diving duck distribution and abundance on Lake St. Clair before and after invasion of Dreissenid mussels. North American Duck Symposium and Workshop. Memphis, TN.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Singer, H. V., D.R. Luukkonen and S.R. Winterstein. Harvest vulnerability and distribution of female mallards banded in the Great Lakes States. North American Duck Symposium and Workshop. Memphis, TN.
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Progress 01/01/12 to 12/31/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Three projects related to modeling wildlife population dynamics are reported herein: 1) development of field and statistical methodologies to determine the distribution and abundance of diving ducks on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie (completed in 12/2012), 2) examination of factors affecting survival, harvest rates, and breeding abundance estimates of Great Lakes States' mallards (initiated in 1/2012) and 3) determination of factors influencing breeding female mallard survival in the Great Lakes region (initiated in 9/2012). The purpose of the diving duck study is to improve conservation planning by identifying factors affecting temporal and spatial dynamics of diving duck populations during migration. Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie are important migration staging areas for diving ducks including canvasbacks, redheads, and lesser and greater scaup. The Michigan DNR has censused diving ducks on the U.S. portion of Lake St. Clair dating back to 1983, but in 2010 traditional surveys were expanded to cover all of Lake St. Clair and portions of western Lake Erie and distance sampling techniques were adopted in an effort generate statistical estimates of abundance. Furthermore, GPS locations were recorded for all flocks allowing for the development of spatial models to investigate the effects of environmental and anthropogenic variables on diving duck distribution. We found distance sampling techniques to be a viable option for estimating diving duck abundance as long as flock size is accounted for as a covariate affecting the detection function, and we were able to apply distance sampling methods to both spring and fall migration. We found both human disturbance variables and environmental variables to be important predictors of diving duck occurrence, although the importance of each variable was different depending on the migration season (e.g., spring or fall) studied. Sharp contrasts between spring and fall abundance estimates and spring and fall predictive models may indicate diving ducks are adopting different landscape use strategies in fall compared to spring, and this may have significant implications for wetland conservation planning. The purpose of the mallard harvest rate and breeding abundance study is to (1) evaluate the relative support for models predicting survival and harvest rates of mallards banded in the Great Lakes Region, (2) contrast harvest and survival rates of mallards before and after the initiation of Adaptive Harvest Management frameworks in the Mississippi Flyway, (3) evaluate the relationship between wetland abundance, regional hydrological conditions, and spring mallard abundance and (4) make recommendations to management agencies about the efficacy of adopting hunting regulations that are more restrictive than the federal regulatory frameworks. The purpose of the breeding female mallard survival study is to 1) estimate breeding season survival rates for female mallards, 2) evaluate the affects of landscape features on survival probability, and 3) evaluate the affects of hen-related parameters (e.g., age, condition, nesting effort) on survival probability. PARTICIPANTS: Scott R. Winterstein, Michigan State University (MSU), Diving Duck Project, Mallard Annual Survival Project, and Hen Mallard Breeding Season Survival project Co-PI; David Luukkonen, Michigan Department of Natural Resources - Wildlife Division, Diving Duck Project and Mallard Annual Survival Project, Co-PI/Liaison; John Coluccy, Ducks Unlimited, Mallard Breeding Season Survival Project, Co_PI Liaison; Brendan Shirkey, MSU, Diving Duck Project, Graduate Student; Howard Singer, Mallard Annual Survival Project, Graduate Student; Ryan Boyer, Hen Mallard Breeding Season Survival Project, Graduate Student. Organizations: Michigan Department of Natural Resources - Wildlife Division; Ducks Unlimited TARGET AUDIENCES: Michigan Department of Natural Resources researchers and managers; Natural resources managers for Native American tribes in Michigan and the Upper Midwest; U.S. Forest Service biologists in the Michigan and the Great Lakes states; Academic, State, Federal and Private researchers in waterfowl ecology; Federal and State waterfowl biologists and managers; Mississippi Flyway Committee; Upper Mississippi River Great Lakes Region Joint Venture; Duck hunters in the Upper Midwest and Canada. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The degree, to which wildlife resources and their exploitation impact not only the state's economy but the quality of life in Michigan, necessitates the continued implementation and further development of management strategies which will ensure healthy populations which have limited detrimental effect on humans. One facet of a holistic management approach is an examination of the population dynamics of the species in question. Sound management decisions that not only protect the resource but are accepted by the public require statistically valid data on population demographics. Federal and state agencies, particularly the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), actively use our findings to improve the quality of their management programs. Waterfowl conservation organizations in the Great Lakes region make substantial annual investments in programs for local and migratory waterfowl. The success of these programs hinges not only upon attracting birds to restored or enhanced habitat but also on increasing and accurately estimating key vital rates that influence population growth. The methodology and model for estimating the number of diving ducks utilizing Lake St. Clair (U.S. and Canadian waters) and western Lake Erie during the fall and spring migrations have been developed and are now available for use by State, Federal and Flyway biologists and managers. Understanding landscape-level correlates of female mallard survival during the breeding season and determining factors affecting survival, harvest rates, and breeding abundance estimates of Great Lake States' mallards will lead to more effective habitat implementation with the expectation that improved survival and population growth will follow. In addition, survival estimates will serve as a baseline to evaluate whether Upper Mississippi River Great Lakes Region Joint Venture future implementation activities improve female breeding season and overall annual survival.
Publications
- Longstaff, S., H. Campa, III, S.R. Winterstein, E. Dunton, S. Kahl, and A. Locher. 2012. Evaluating wetland use by white-tailed deer and the habitat suitability wetland vegetation types provide for them. Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference, Wichita, KS. Abstract.
- Luukkonen, D.R., E.N. Kafcas, B.T. Shirkey and S.R. Winterstein. 2012. Impacts of dreissenid mussles on diving duck distribution and abundance on Lake St. Clair. in Quagga and zebra mussels: biology, impacts and control, 2nd edition. (Nalepa, T.F. and D. Schloesser, eds.) CRC Press, USA
- Shirkey, B. 2012. Diving duck abundance and distribution on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie. M.S. Thesis, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI.
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Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Outputs from two projects related to modeling wildlife population dynamics are reported herein: 1) development of a stochastic population projection model for moose in the west-central Upper Peninsula of Michigan and 2) development of field and statistical methodologies to determine the distribution and abundance of diving ducks on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie. The moose projection model is based on the results of a seven-year study of moose ecology in the west-central portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Age and sex specific annual survival rates were determined for calves, yearlings and adults (ages 2 - 16+). Reproduction associated variables included calf-to-cow ratios, percentage of adult females breeding and percentage of cows producing twins. The model allows survival and reproduction to vary stochastically depending upon the quality of the year (below average, average or above average). The model calculates the size of the moose population in each of fifty years beginning in 2001. Over the course of the 50 year run, the percentage of average years remains at 50%, but the percentage of below average years gradually increases from 30% to 39%. The gradual increase in the likelihood of below average years is intended to reflect the impact of the warming trend predicted by climate change models. Emigration rate and sex ratio at birth can also be adjusted in the model. Since there is no source population for the west-central UP moose herd, the immigration rate is set at zero. The impact of various levels of annual hunting pressure are examined by comparing the model's three primary outputs: 1) percentage of the 505 simulations that result in extinction of the population by 2050, 2) average population size (with confidence intervals ) in 2050, and 3) percentage of the simulations that yield an average annual growth rate of at least 3%. The model can be generalized to examine the impact of hunting in alternating years. The purpose of the diving duck study is to improve conservation planning by identifying factors affecting temporal and spatial dynamics of diving duck populations during migration. To meet these information needs on our study area, we are analyzing data collected during historical aerial surveys conducted by MDNR. In addition, we are developing aerial survey protocols using distance sampling methodology that will improve our understanding of diving duck distribution and abundance on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie. We have completed two fall and one spring aerial surveys incorporating the distance sampling methodologies. Each survey consists of 5 flights spaced 7 - 14 days apart. One additional spring survey has yet to be completed. The distance sampling models used to estimate the abundance of diving ducks during the fall migration on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie are essentially complete and work extremely well for small to medium sized groups of ducks. We are still refining the methodology to incorporate extremely large groups of birds (sometimes in excess of 20,000 birds) into our estimates. PARTICIPANTS: Scott R. Winterstein, Michigan State University (MSU), Moose Project PI and Diving Duck Project Co-PI; Dean Beyer, Michigan Department of Natural Resources - Wildlife Division, Moose Project, Co-PI/Liaison; Henry Campa, III, MSU, Moose Project Co-PI; David Luukkonen, Michigan Department of Natural Resources - Wildlife Division, Diving Duck Project, Co-PI/Liaison; Brendan Shirkey, MSU, Diving Duck Project, Graduate Student. TARGET AUDIENCES: Michigan Department of Natural Resources researchers and managers; Natural resources managers for Native American tribes in Michigan; U.S. Forest Service biologists in the Michigan and the Great Lakes states; Academic, State, Federal and Private researchers in moose and waterfowl ecology; Federal and State waterfowl biologists and managers; Mississippi Flyway Committee; Duck hunters in the Upper Midwest and Canada. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The degree, to which wildlife resources and their exploitation impact not only the state's economy but the quality of life in Michigan, necessitates the continued implementation and further development of management strategies which will ensure healthy populations which have limited detrimental effect on humans. One facet of a holistic management approach is an examination of the population dynamics of the species in question. Sound management decisions that not only protect the resource but are accepted by the public require statistically valid data on population demographics. Federal and state agencies, particularly the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), actively use our findings to improve the quality of their management programs. The Michigan Moose Advisory Council was required by Public Act No. 366 of 2010 to submit to the MDNR, the Michigan Natural Resources Commission and the Michigan Legislature recommendations with respect to whether a moose hunting season should be established, and among other issues, to suggest the number of moose to be harvested. The Moose Advisory Council was further directed to consider the effect a hunting season would have on Michigan's moose population. In their final report, the Moose Advisory Council noted that, "Dr. Winterstein provided invaluable assistance with modeling the Michigan moose herd, utilizing known research and exploring likely outcomes given various approaches to managing a potential moose harvest." The results of our modeling efforts, which were based on our multi-year study of moose ecology (reported in previous annual reports), were used by the Moose Advisory Council to shape their final recommendations. Our results were used specifically to 1) identify the proposed harvest level (10 bulls per year), 2) set a projected annual growth rate for the moose herd (3% per year) and 3) restrict the hunt to those years following a successfully executed aerial population survey. The methodology and model for estimating the number of diving ducks utilizing Lake St. Clair (U.S. and Canadian waters) and western Lake Erie during the fall and spring migrations have been presented to State, Federal and Flyway biologists and managers. When the final versions of the methodology and estimation model are available in 2012, they will be used to develop future management recommendations.
Publications
- Shirkey, B., Luukkonen, D, and Winterstein, S. 2011. Research report: Estimation of migratory diving duck population size on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie. Meeting of the Long Point Waterfowl committee, Michigan DNR and Ohio waterfowl seminar, Monroe, MI, May 2011.
- Shirkey, B., Luukkonen, D, and Winterstein, S. 2011. Technical update: Estimation of migratory diving duck population size on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie. Mississippi Flyway General Session, Little Rock, Arkansas. July 2011.
- Shirkey, B., Luukkonen, D, and Winterstein, S. 2011. Estimating migratory diving duck population size on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie. Midwest Bird Monitoring Conference, Zion, Illinois. August 2011.
- Shirkey, B., Luukkonen, D, and Winterstein, S. 2011. Developing Spatially Explicit Models to Guide Conservation of Diving Ducks During Migration. State of the Strait Conference, Ypsilante, Michigan. November 2011.
- Winterstein, S, and Beyer, D. 2011. A population projection model for the west UP moose herd. Natural Resources Commission, Committee of the Whole. Sault Ste. Marie, MI. 15 September 2011.
- Winterstein, S, and Beyer, D. 2011. Modeling the West-Central UP moose population. Michigan Moose Hunting Advisory Council, Public Input Meeting, Newberry, Michigan. 16 May 2011.
- Winterstein, S, and Beyer, D. 2011. Modeling the West-Central UP moose population. Michigan Moose Hunting Advisory Council, Public Input Meeting, Alberta, Michigan. 18 May 2011.
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Progress 01/01/10 to 12/31/10
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Two projects related to modeling wildlife population dynamics were completed this year. Ms. Jennifer White completed her project on the use of noninvasive genetic techniques to monitor bobcat (lynx rufus) populations in the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan. She compared the efficacy of two methods for obtaining bobcat genetic samples: detector dogs trained to find scat samples and hair snares. Hair snares generated more samples than did detector dogs; however, only two hair samples yielded bobcat multilocus genotypes, while scat samples yielded 9 genotypes. The results suggest that the detector dog method was superior to the hair snares for monitoring the bobcat population. She also quantified the effect that environmental variables have on the probability of scat sample detection by detector dog teams. Detection of scat samples by detector dogs was most strongly impacted by the distance of the sample from the handler and wind strength, and to a lesser extent, scat degradation. There was also significant variation in success between dog/handler teams. Additionally, she examined the effect of observable scat characteristics on microsatellite genotyping success in order to optimize cost-efficiency of the scat-collection methodology. There was no significant correlation between amplification success and observable scat characteristics, suggesting caution when culling samples based on human perception of scat degradation. Mr. Joel Humphries completed his five-year project on White-tailed Deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population demographics at the Fort Custer Training Center in Augusta, Michigan. The primary objective of the research was to assess the effectiveness of the current deer management policy and develop methodologies that can use to estimate the size of the deer herd. Sixty-six deer (aged 6 months or older) were captured, sexed, aged, ear tagged, and fitted with radio-collars during winter from 2004-2008. Mortalities were classified into seven categories: hunter harvest, trauma, deer vehicle collisions, coyote predation, dehydration, abandoned and malnutrition, and unknown. A spring capture of neonatal fawns occurred in 2006 and 2007. Each of the 14 captured neonatal fawns was weighed, ear tagged, aged, and fitted with an expandable radio-collar. We delineated home ranges with the GIS software packages ArcView V3.2 and used compositional analysis to assess habitat use of radio-collared deer. The deer herd at FCTC is similar to herds in other areas in southern MI where hunter harvest accounts for the majority of the mortalities. We documented 31 mortalities in adult deer; 21 of them being the result of hunter harvest. Adult deer selected oak forests first, followed by fields and then mixed hardwoods, conifers, wetlands, brush and locust stands. Neonatal fawns selected fields first and oak forests second, followed by mixed hardwoods, conifers, locust stands, wetlands and brush. The results from vegetation sampling indicate that deer are not significantly effecting forest structure and composition. Our results strongly suggest that the size of the deer herd is currently at an appropriate level relative to ecosystem sustainability. PARTICIPANTS: Scott R. Winterstein, Michigan State University (MSU), Bobcat Project Co-PI, FCTC White-tailed Deer Project PI; Henry Campa, III, MSU, FCTC White-tailed Deer Project Co-PI; Shawn Riley, MSU, FCTC White-tailed Deer Project Co-PI; Joel Humphries, MSU, FCTC White-tailed Deer Project, graduate research assistant; Jonathan Edgerly, FCTC Environmental Division, White-tailed Deer Project, liaison; Kim T. Scribner, MSU, Bobcat Project Co-PI; Jennifer White, MSU, Bobcat project, graduate research assistant; Dwayne Etter, Michigan Department of Natural Resources and Environment - Wildlife Division, Bobcat Project liaison. TARGET AUDIENCES: Michigan Department of Natural Resources and the Environment researchers and managers; Natural resources managers for Native American tribes in Michigan; U.S. Forest Service biologists in the Michigan and the Great Lakes states; Furbearer managers and hunter/trappers in the upper Midwest of the United States and in central Canada; White-tailed deer hunters and trappers in Michigan; the Michigan Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The degree, to which wildlife resources and their exploitation impact not only the state's economy but the quality of life in Michigan, necessitates the continued implementation and further development of management strategies which will ensure healthy populations which have limited detrimental effect on humans. One facet of a holistic management approach is an examination of the population dynamics of the species in question. Sound management decisions that not only protect the resource but are accepted by the public require statistically valid data on population demographics. Federal and state agencies, particularly the Michigan Department of Natural Resources and Environment (MDNRE), actively use our findings to improve the quality of their management programs. Bobcats, like many mid-sized mammalian predators, are difficult to monitor. They are sparsely distributed and secretive. Noninvasive genetic techniques provide a cost-effective methodology for management agencies to monitor such populations. Our demonstration of the viability of using detector dogs to obtain data on bobcat populations provides the MDNRE with a valuable tool that can be implemented immediately. The primary mission of the Fort Custer Training Center (FCTC is to provide a training site for the Michigan Army National Guard and other armed services. This mission confounds management of the deer herd, since the traditional deer herd management technique of an extended hunting season is impossible to implement while maintaining base security and training schedules. Our study provided that the Michigan Department of Military and Veterans Affairs with an assessment of the current status of the FCTC deer herd and their current deer management plan. Our recommendations have been implemented and the data collection plan we developed will allow FCTC personnel to continue to assess the size and quality of the deer herd.
Publications
- Winters, A.N, W.K. Rumbeiha, S.R. Winterstein, A.E. Fine, B. Munkhtsog, and G. J. Hickling. 2010. Residues in Brandt's voles (Microtus brandti) exposed to bromadiolone-impregnated baits in Mongolia. Exotoxicology and Environmental Safety. 73:1071-1077.
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Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Moose are native to MI, but were nearly extirpated by the end of the 19th century, primarily because of over-hunting and habitat destruction. The current research was conducted in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The objectives of the study are: (1) estimate age-specific rates of pregnancy and natality, (2) estimate sex and age specific rates of mortality, and (3) develop and evaluate population estimation techniques. Activities: The field portion of the study is completed; data analyses and report writing are in the final stages. Intensive collaring operations were conducted in 1999 - 2001 and 2003. As a result of these operations, 109 moose were fitted with radio collars, of which 49 (45%) were still alive on 24 August 2005 when data collection ceased. Forty-five (41%) of the collared moose were known to have died by 24 August 2005. We were unable to determine the fate of 15 of the collared moose. In response to growing pressure from various stakeholders (including members of the MI legislature) for a limited recreational moose hunt, population projection models were developed to determine the impact of various hunt scenarios on the future growth rate of the moose population in the west-central U.P. Our results indicate that a small selective hunt (e.g., less than 10 males) will have negligible impact on the annual average growth rate of the population. Events: Two meetings with MI Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) personnel, one conference call with the MI Moose Working Group and one conference call with MDNR personnel to present population projection results in anticipation of a possible moose hunt. Services: Project personnel continued to serve on the MI Moose Working Group. This group incorporates findings from this project into annual recommendations to MDNR, which is responsible for managing the moose herd. Findings are also disseminated to Native American tribes that share management responsibility for the MI moose herd. PARTICIPANTS: Scott R. Winterstein, Michigan State University (MSU), Moose Project PI, White-tailed Deer Project PI; Dean Beyer, Michigan Department of Natural Resources - Wildlife Division, Moose Project, Co-PI/Liaison; Henry Campa, III, MSU, Moose Project Co-PI; James Maskey, SDSU, Moose Project Data Analyst. Organizations: Michigan Department of Natural Resources - Wildlife Division; Michigan Technological University. TARGET AUDIENCES: Michigan Department of Natural Resources researchers and managers; Natural resources managers for Native American tribes in Michigan; U.S. Forest Service biologists in the Michigan and the Great Lakes states; Moose managers and hunters in the upper Midwest of the United States and in central Canada; White-tailed deer hunters and trappers in Michigan. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The degree to which wildlife resources and their exploitation impact not only the state's economy but the quality of life in Michigan, necessitates the continued implementation and further development of management strategies which will ensure healthy populations which have limited detrimental effect on humans. One facet of a holistic management approach is an examination of the population dynamics of the species in question. Sound management decisions that not only protect the resource but are accepted by the public require statistically valid data on population demographics. Federal and state agencies, particularly the Michigan Department of Natural Resources, actively use our findings to improve the quality of their management programs. Population sightability models using fixed-wing aircraft have been developed for moose in the Upper Peninsula and elk in the Lower Peninsula. These models are being used annually to provide an estimate of the size of the Michigan moose and elk herds. Findings from the moose study are being used to assess the status and growth potential of the healthy, but slow growing, moose herd and to determine if a sustainable moose hunt can be conducted in MI.
Publications
- Hiller, T.L., Campa, H.,III, and S.R. Winterstein. (2009). Estimation and Implications of Space Use for White-tailed Deer Management in Southern Michigan. Journal of Wildlife Management 73:201-209.
- Walsh, D.P., Page, C.F., Campa, H.,III, Winterstein, S.R., and Beyer, D.E.,JR. (2009). Incorporating Estimates of Group Size in Sightability Models for Aerial Survey of Wildlife Populations. Journal of Wildlife Management 73:136-143.
- Walter, W.D., VerCautern, K.C., Campa, H.,III, Clark, W.R., Fisher, J.W., Hygnstrom, S.G., Matthews, N.E., Nielsen, C., Schauber, E.C., Van Deelen, T., and Winterstein, S.R. (2009). Regional Assessment on the Influence of Landscape Configuration and Connectivity on Range Size of White-tailed Deer. Landscape Ecology 24 (10):1405-1420.
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Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Moose Project: Moose are native to MI, but were nearly extirpated by the end of the 19th century, primarily because of over-hunting and habitat destruction. The current research was conducted in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The objectives of the study are: (1) estimate age-specific rates of pregnancy and natality, (2) estimate sex and age specific rates of mortality, and (3) develop and evaluate population estimation techniques. Activities: The field portion of the study is completed; data analyses and report writing are in the final stages. Intensive collaring operations were conducted in 1999 - 2001 and 2003. As a result of these operations, 109 moose were fitted with radio collars, of which 49 (45%) were still alive on 24 August 2005 when data collection ceased. Forty-five (41%) of the collared moose were known to have died by 24 August 2005. We were unable to determine the fate of 15 of the collared moose. Calf survival from drop to 6 months of age was about 85%, while survival from 6-months to 1-year of age averaged 0.94 (n = 48; 95% CI = 0.85 - 1.00). Calf survival did not differ by sex. Yearling survival averaged 0.85 (n = 50; 95% CI = 0.74 - 0.95). Yearling female (n = 26) survival averaged 0.91, while male yearling (n = 24) survival averaged 0.79. Annual adult survival (1 June - 31 May) averaged 0.88 (n = 85; 95% CI 0.84 - 0.92). Annual adult male survival (n = 21; 0.85) did not differ from annual adult female survival (n = 64; 0.88). The average overall probability of surviving from 6 months of age to age 5 is 0.60 (95% CI = 0.45 - 0.78). The probability of surviving from birth to age 5 is estimated to be about 0.51. Events: One meeting with MI Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) personnel and one conference call with the MI Moose Working Group were held. Project results were shared at a regional moose ecology conference held in MN. Services: Project personnel continued to serve on the MI Moose Working Group. This group incorporates findings from this project into annual recommendations to MDNR, which is responsible for managing the moose herd. Findings are also disseminated to Native American tribes that share management responsibility for the MI moose herd. Products: Reports on annual survival probability and sources of mortality were filed. PARTICIPANTS: Scott R. Winterstein, Michigan State University (MSU), Moose Project PI, White-tailed Deer Project PI; Dean Beyer, Michigan Department of Natural Resources - Wildlife Division, Moose Project, Co-PI/Liaison; Henry Campa, III, MSU, Moose Project Co-PI; Darian Muzo, MSU, Moose Project Data Analyst. Organizations: Michigan Department of Natural Resources - Wildlife Division; Michigan Technological University. TARGET AUDIENCES: Michigan Department of Natural Resources researchers and managers; Natural resources managers for Native American tribes in Michigan; U.S. Forest Service biologists in the Michigan and the Great Lakes states; Moose managers and hunters in the upper Midwest of the United States and in central Canada; White-tailed deer hunters and trappers in Michigan. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The degree to which wildlife resources and their exploitation impact not only the state's economy but the quality of life in Michigan, necessitates the continued implementation and further development of management strategies which will ensure healthy populations which have limited detrimental effect on humans. One facet of a holistic management approach is an examination of the population dynamics of the species in question. Sound management decisions that not only protect the resource but are accepted by the public require statistically valid data on population demographics. Federal and state agencies, particularly the Michigan Department of Natural Resources, actively use our findings to improve the quality of their management programs. Population sightability models using fixed-wing aircraft have been developed for moose in the Upper Peninsula. These models are being used annually to provide an estimate of the size of the Michigan moose herd. Findings from the moose study are being used to assess the status and growth potential of the healthy, but slow growing, moose herd. There is growing pressure from various stakeholders for a limited recreational moose hunt. Our research results on productivity and survival will be central to the final decision on whether a hunt will occur.
Publications
- Hiller, T. L., Campa III, H., Winterstein, S.R., and Rudolph, B.A. 2008. Survival and space use of fawn white-tailed deer in southern Michigan. Am. Midland Nat. 159:403-412.
- Felix, A.B., Walsh, D.B., Campa III, H. and Winterstein, S.R. 2008. Who moved my deer They disappeared! Woods-N-Water News. 03/01/2008:45-47.
- Williams, B.W., Etter, D.R., Linden, D.W., Millenbah, K.F., Winterstein, S.R., and Scribner, K.T. 2009. Noninvasive hair sampling and genetic tagging of co-distributed fishers and American martens. J. Wildl. Manage.(in press).
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Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Moose Project: Moose are native to MI, but were nearly extirpated by the end of the 19th century, primarily because of over-hunting and habitat destruction. The current research was conducted in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The objectives of the study are: (1) estimate age-specific rates of pregnancy and natality, (2) estimate sex and age specific rates of mortality, and (3) develop and evaluate population estimation techniques. Activities: The field portion of the study is completed; data analyses and report writing are in the final stages. Intensive collaring operations were conducted in 1999 - 2001 and 2003. As a result of these operations, 109 moose were fitted with radio collars. Of the 109 moose collared, 49 (45%) were still alive on 24 August 2005 when data collection ceased. Forty-five (41%) of the collared moose were known to have died by 24 August 2005. We were unable to determine the fate of 15 of the collared moose. Adult annual survival remained stable
throughout the study, with female survival generally exceeding 0.90 and male survival generally exceeding 0.70. Disease and accidents were the primary sources of mortality; few suspected predator deaths were observed. Events: Two meetings with MI Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) personnel and one conference call with the MI Moose Working Group were held. Services: Project personnel continued to serve on the MI Moose Working Group. This group incorporates findings from this project into annual recommendations to MDNR, which is responsible for managing the moose herd. Findings are also disseminated to Native American tribes that share management responsibility for the MI moose herd. Products: The original fixed-wing aircraft based moose population model developed by researchers at Michigan Technological University was updated and tested. The new model has been adopted for annual moose surveys. Bobcat Project: Statistically valid data on bobcat demographics are difficult to obtain.
We developed a study of alternative methods for field collection and lab analysis of non-invasive genetic samples of wild bobcats in the Northern Lower Peninsula of MI. Specific objectives of this project were (1) To examine A) field, laboratory, and data techniques for non-invasive estimation of bobcat population demographics, B) MI bobcat population index methods, and C) hybrid population estimators that utilize multiple sources of data for MI bobcats, (2) Develop laboratory protocols for DNA extraction and analysis of non-invasively collected hair and scat samples, and (3) Conduct a pilot study to test a novel method for wild bobcat noninvasive DNA sample collection. Activities: The field portion of this study has been completed; data analysis is continuing. Events: No events were scheduled during the reporting period. Services: Project personnel consulted with MDNR furbearer managers. Products: Laboratory protocols for DNA extraction and analysis of non-invasively collected hair
and scat samples were developed and tested. Preliminary results suggest that hair-snares are an ineffective mechanism for collecting. Scat sensing dogs are an effective, albeit expense, technique for gathering samples.
PARTICIPANTS: Scott R. Winterstein, Michigan State University (MSU), Moose Project PI, Bobcat Project Co-PI; Dean Beyer, Michigan Department of Natural Resources - Wildlife Division, Moose Project, Co-PI/Liaison; Henry Campa, III, MSU, Moose Project Co-PI; Darian Muzo, MSU, Moose Project Data Analyst; Bronwyn Williams, MSU, Moose Project Data Analyst; Kim T. Scribner, MSU, Bobcat Project Co-PI; Jennifer White, MSU, Bobcat Project Graduate Assistant; Partner Organizations: Michigan Department of Natural Resources - Wildlife Division; Michigan Technological University.
TARGET AUDIENCES: Michigan Department of Natural Resources researchers and managers; Natural resources managers for Native American tribes in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan; U.S. Forest Service biologists in the Michigan and the Great Lakes states; Moose managers and hunters in the upper Midwest of the United States and in central Canada; Bobcat hunters and trappers in Michigan.
Impacts
Wildlife related recreation is important to the quality of life of Michigan's citizens. Additionally, wildlife related industries are critical to the local and state-wide economies in Michigan. Sound management decisions that not only protect the resource but are accepted by the public require statistically valid data on population demographics. Federal and state agencies, particularly the Michigan Department of Natural Resources, actively use our findings to improve the quality of their management programs. Population sightability models using fixed-wing aircraft have been developed for moose in the Upper Peninsula. These models are being used annually to provide an estimate of the size of the Michigan moose herd. Findings from the moose study are being used to assess the status and growth potential of the healthy, but slow growing, moose herd. There is growing pressure from various stakeholders for a limited recreational moose hunt. Our research results on
productivity and survival will be central to the final decision on whether a hunt will occur. Results from the bobcat study suggest that samples can be obtained using each of the non-invasive techniques employed. However, hair-snares proved to be too inefficient to warrant further use and should be abandoned. Scat-sensing dogs provide for a reliable sampling mechanism and their future use is encouraged. With additional research to determine the efficacy of using scat-sensing dogs in a larger geographic area, a statistically valid population size estimator can be developed for wild bobcats.
Publications
- Blanchong, J.A., Scribner, K.T., Kravchenko, A.N., and Winterstein, S.R. 2007. TB-infected deer are more closely related than non-infected deer. Biol. Letters. 3:103-105.
- Dreher, B.P., Winterstein, S.R., Scribner, K.T., Lukacs, P.M., Etter, D.R., Rosa, G.J.M., Lopez, V.A., Libants, S. and Filcek, K.B. 2007. Noninvasive estimation of black bear abundance incorporating genotyping errors and harvested bear. J. Wildl. Manag. 71:2684-2693.
- Felix, A., Walsh, D., Hughey, B., Campa III, H., and Winterstein, S.R. 2007. Applying landscape-scale habitat-potential models to understand white-tailed deer spatial structure. J. Wildl. Manag. 71:804-810.
- Hiller, T.L., Campa III, H., Winterstein, S.R., and Rudolph, B. 2007. Land use patterns of white-tailed deer in an agroforest ecosystem in south central Michigan. The Wildlife Society 14th Annual Conference. Tucson, AZ.
- Humphries, J.T., Winterstein, S.R. Campa III, H., and Riley, S.J. 2007. Balancing white-tailed deer management with Michigan National Guard training at Fort Custer Training Center. 2007 Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference. Madison, WI.
- Walter, D., Campa III,H., Fischer, J.W., Hygnstrom, S.E., Mathews, N., Nielsen, C.K., Schauber, E.M., Van Deelen, T.R., VerCauteren, K.C.and Winterstein, S. R. 2007. Home-range size of white-tailed deer relative to landscape composition in the Midwest: a regional compaison. 2007 Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference. Madison, WI.
- White, J.M., Scribner, K., and Winterstein, S.R. 2007. Abundance estimation of bobcats in heterogeneous habitats using wildlife detector dogs and hair snares. 2007 Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference. Madison, WI.
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Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/06
Outputs
The field portion of a Moose Research Project being conducted in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan is completed; data analysis continues. The objectives of the study are to (1) estimate age-specific rates of pregnancy and natality, (2) estimate sex- and age-specific rates of mortality, and dispersal rates and (3) perfect an existing, but biased, population size estimator using fixed-wing aircraft. Fecal samples collected throughout the winter of 2004 and 2005 and spring of 2005 from 31 of 40 adult cows with active transmitters were analyzed in 2006 for pregnane (ug/g dry feces) concentrations. The assay results were determined for those cows that were visually observed from the ground or air (in an attempt to determine if they had produced at least one calf). The average assay value for four cows that were each not observed with a calf (and where therefore assumed to have not been pregnant) was 1.93 + 0.14 (SE). For the 24 cows that were each observed with at
least one calf, the average assay value was 4.70 + 0.28. One potential measure for identify those cows that produced calves is to use the approximate upper 95% confidence limit for the assay value for those cows never observed with a calf as the break point. In 2005, this would be 2.51 (1.93 * 2 * 0.29 (SD)). Using this value, we would have identified 22 of the 28 (79%) cows as having successfully produced at least one calf. Samples were assayed for 3 additional cows for which no visual determination of calving success was available. Two of these cows each had an assay values above 2.51, yielding an estimated reproductive success rate of 77% (24 out of 31 with values above 2.51). With 32 calves known to have been produced, the calf:cow ratio was 0.8 (32 calves/40 radio collared cows).The observed twinning rate, calculated as the number of births involving twins divided by the number of females giving birth, was 28%. Early detection of moose deaths was accomplished through two-three
weekly monitoring of radio collar mortality pulse signals during aerial re location flights. Adult annual survival remained stable throughout the study, with female survival generally exceeding 0.90 and male survival generally exceeding 0.70. Disease and accidents were the primary sources of mortality; few suspected predator deaths were observed. A study was initiated to evaluate alternative methods for field collection and lab analysis of non-invasive genetic samples of wild bobcats in the Northern Lower Peninsula. Specific objectives are (1) To produce a report on the current status of: A) field, laboratory, and data techniques for non-invasive genetic research applicable to the development of bobcat population estimation, B) MI bobcat population index methods, and C) hybrid population estimators that utilize multiple sources of data for MI bobcats, (2) Develop laboratory protocols for DNA extraction and analysis of non-invasively collected hair and scat samples, including the
development of error-rate estimations for resulting multi-locus genotype data, and (3) Conduct a pilot study to test a novel method for wild bobcat noninvasive DNA sample collection and index data collection.
Impacts
Wildlife related industries are critical to the local and state-wide economies in Michigan. Equally important, wildlife related recreation is important to the quality of life of Michigan's citizens. Efficient management of wildlife resources requires precise and accurate data on population demographics. The Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) actively uses our findings to improve the quality of their management programs. Population sightability models using fixed-wing aircraft have been developed for moose in the Upper Peninsula. These models are being used to provide an estimate of the size of the Michigan moose herd. Findings from the moose study are being used to assess the status and growth potential of the healthy, but slow growing, moose herd. Results from the bobcat study suggest that samples can be obtained used each of the non-invasive techniques employed. Results will provide recommendations for scaling future non-invasive techniques to
landscape-level analyses for bobcat as has previously been done for black bear across the entire Northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
Publications
- Blanchong, J.A., Scribner, K.T., Epperson, B.K. Epperson, Winterstein,S. R. 2006. Changes in artificial feeding regulations impact white-tailed deer microgeographic genetic structure. J. Wildlife Management 70:1037-1043.
- Felix, A.B., Campa III, H., Winterstein, S.R. 2006. Where are the deer? Michigan Out-of-Doors. March: 26 - 29.
- Pusateri Burroughs, J., Campa III, H., Winterstein, S.R., Rudolph, B.A. Moritz, W.E. 2006. Cause-specific mortality and survival of white-tailed deer fawns in southwestern lower Michigan. J. Wildlife Management 70:743-751.
- Rudolph, R.A., Riley, S.J., Hickling, G.J., Frawley, B.J., Garner, M.S. Winterstein, S.R. 2006. Regulating hunter baiting for white-tailed deer in Michigan: biological and social considerations. Wildlife Society Bulletin 34:314-321.
- Sudharsan, K., Riley, S.J., Winterstein, S. R. 2006. Relationship of autumn hunting season to the frequency of deer-vehicle collisions in Michigan. J. Wildlife Management 70:1161-1164.
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Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/05
Outputs
A continuing Moose Research Project being conducted in portions of Baraga, Dickinson, Iron, and Marquette counties in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan (an area of approximately 4000 square km) is examining discrepancies between population estimates derived from a deterministic model and from aerial surveys. The objectives of the study are to (1) estimate age-specific rates of pregnancy and natality, (2) estimate sex- and age-specific rates of mortality and dispersal rates and (3) perfect an existing, but biased, population size estimator using fixed-wing aircraft. Fecal samples were collected throughout the winter and early spring of 2005 from 31 of 40 adult cows (2+ years of age) with active transmitters. The samples will be assayed for fecal progestagen (Pg/Ab) concentrations. Fecal samples were not collected from 9 cows for a variety of reasons (e.g., lack of snow). Twenty-five of 40 adult cows were verified to have produced calves. The calving status of
seven cows remained unknown when field data collection ended in mid-September 2005. Eight cows were each believed to have failed to produce a calf. With 32 calves known to have been produced, the calf: cow ratio was 0.8 (32/40). The observed twinning rate, calculated as the number of births involving twins divided by the number of females giving birth, was 28%. Early detection of moose deaths was accomplished through two-three weekly monitoring of transmitter (radio collar) mortality pulse signals during aerial relocation flights. Four radio tagged adult female moose died during the reporting period. Forty-six radio-collar adult moose (38 females and 8 males) were verified to be alive within the primary study area when field data collection ended. Based on analyses of results from previous years, collection of data to refine/improve the sightability model was restricted to January and the first week of February (1/6/05 to 2/4/05). Eighty-seven sightability trials were completed.
Preliminary analysis of the raw data indicates that the overall sightability was 35.6%, with 39.3% (n=33) of the bedded moose seen by observers and 35.3% (n=51) of the standing moose seen by observers. Sightability by cover class was 65.5% for Cover I (0-33% crown density, n=29), 31.2% in Cover II (34-66% crown density, n=32), and 7.7% in Cover III (67-100% crown density, n=26). Sightability in group size 1 was 24.7%, group size 2, 32.15%, and group size 3, 62.5%. Two groups of size 4 and one each of size 6 and 7 each was sighted. Sightability of group sizes >4 was 75%.
Impacts
Wildlife related industries are critical to the local and state-wide economies in Michigan. Equally important, wildlife related recreation is important to the quality of life of Michigan's citizens. Efficient management of wildlife resources requires precise and accurate data on population demographics. The Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR)actively use our findings to improve the quality of their management programs. Population sightability models using fixed-wing aircraft are being developed for moose in the Upper Peninsula. Though still in development, these models are being used to provide a preliminary estimate of the size of the Michigan moose herd. Findings from the moose study are being used to assess the status and growth potential of the healthy, but slow growing, moose herd. During the summer of 2005, the MDNR fully implemented the black-bear population size estimation protocol we developed (2002 to 2004). The resulting estimate will allow the
MDNR to more precisely manage the annual hunter harvest of bears.
Publications
- Siefkes, M. J., Winterstein, S. R. and Li W. 2005. Evidence that 3-keto petromyzonol sulphate specifically attracts ovulating female sea lamprey, Petromyzon marinus. Animal Behaviour. 70:1037-1045.
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Progress 01/01/04 to 12/31/04
Outputs
A continuing Moose Research Project being conducted in portions of Baraga, Dickinson, Iron, and Marquette counties in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan (an area of approximately 4000 square km) is examining discrepancies between population estimates derived from a deterministic model and from aerial surveys. The objectives of the study are to (1) estimate age-specific rates of pregnancy and natality, (2) estimate sex- and age-specific rates of mortality, and dispersal rates and (3) perfect an existing, but biased, population size estimator using fixed-wing aircraft. Twenty of 35 adult cows produced 22 calves resulting in a spring calf to cow ratio of 0.66. One of nine 2-year-old cows produced a single calf (calf to cow ratio = 0.11). The observed twinning rate, calculated as the number of twins produced divided by the number of females giving birth, was consistent with previous estimates at 21%. Nine radio tagged moose (adults: female n = 4, male n = 5) died
during the reporting period. Annual survival for biological year 2003 (June 1 2003 - May 31 2004) was calculated using the Mayfield estimator. A daily survival rate was calculated over the period of interest (one month) and multiplied out to derive annual adult sex-specific survival rates. Adult survival was 0.857; for males it was 0.677 and for females it was 0.927. Aerial sightability trials were conducted during 10 January-18 January. Thirty-six sightability trials were completed during 12 flights. Overall sightability was 60.0%, with 71.4% (n=14) of the bedded moose seen by observers and 50.0% (n=16) of the standing moose seen by observers. Sightability by cover class was 76.5% for Cover I (0-33% crown density, n=17), 36.4% in Cover II (34-66% crown density, n=11), and 50.0% in Cover III (67-100% crown density, n=2). Sightability in group size 1 was 33.3%, group size 2, 61.5%, and group size 3, 57.2%. One group of size 4, 5, 6, and 7 each was sighted. Sightability of group sizes
>4 was 100%. Light type and light intensity were also examined. Sightability by light type was 52.4% for flat light (n=21), and 77.8% for bright light (n=9). Moose sightability appears to be better in high intensity light. Definitive conclusions can not be drawn from these results, however, as many of the categories have insufficient sample sizes. The primary objective of the Michigan Black Bear Population Estimation Project was to perfect a methodology for using genetic tagging to obtain a mark recapture based estimate of the size of the black bear population in the Northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan (Northern Lacustrine-Influenced Lower Michigan Ecoregion). This project has been successfully completed. A comprehensive protocol for (1) field collection of hair and tissues, (2) determination and analysis of genetic data, and (3) model selection was developed that, given the human and financial resources available to the Michigan Department of Natural Resources Wildlife Division,
allows for the maximum likelihood of obtaining a reliable estimate (with confidence intervals) of the size of the juvenile and adult (cubs are excluded) population.
Impacts
Wildlife related industries are critical to the local and state-wide economies in Michigan. Equally important, wildlife related recreation plays a significant role in the quality of life of Michigan's citizens. Efficient management of wildlife resources requires precise and accurate data on population demographics. The Michigan Department of Natural Resources(MDNR)actively uses our findings to improve the quality of their white-tailed deer, black bear and moose management programs. Population sightability models using fixed-wing aircraft are being developed for moose in the Upper Peninsula. Though still in development, these models are being used to provide a preliminary estimate of the size of the Michigan moose herd. Findings from the moose study are being used to assess the status and growth potential of Michigan's healthy, but slow growing, moose herd. During the summer of 2005, the MDNR will fully implement the black-bear population size estimation protocol we
developed. The resulting estimate will allow the MDNR to more precisely manage the annual hunter harvest of bears.
Publications
- Felix, A.B., H. Campa, III, K.F. Millenbah, S.R. Winterstein, and W.E. Moritz. 2004. Development of landscape-scale habitat potential models for forest wildlife planning and management. Wildlife Society Bulletin 32(3):795 - 806.
- Lopez, V. 2004. Spatial Genetic Structure and the Assumption of Geographic Closure in a Mark-Recapture Study of Black Bear (Ursus americanus) in Michigan. Unpublished Project Report. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University.
- Dreher, B.P. 2004. Estimation of black bear (Ursus americanus) abundance in the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan using microsatellite DNA markers. Unpublished Thesis. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University.
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Progress 01/01/03 to 12/31/03
Outputs
A continuing Moose Research Project is examining discrepancies between population estimates derived from a deterministic model and from aerial surveys. The objectives of the study are to estimate age-specific rates of pregnancy and natality, sex- and age-specific rates of mortality, and dispersal rates. An additional objective was to perfect an existing, but biased, population size estimator using fixed-wing aircraft. Almost 1000 locations were obtained for 68 radio-collared moose. Annual survival continued to be high with only 5 mortalities (3 adult females and 2 adult males) recorded. Reproductive success(52% of adult cows pregnant) was much lower than expected, but the twinning rate (17% of cows producing calves) remained consistent. Despite high adult survival rates, low reproductive success (about 0.61 calves per adult cow)and moderately high dispersal have combined to produce the slower than predicted population growth. The bias in the existing population size
estimator appears to be a function of changes in the sightability of moose as snow conditions change in early February. The original model was developed using data from December - early March, while the actual survey is being conducted only in January. The primary objective of the Michigan Black Bear Population Estimation Project is to perfect a methodology for using genetic tagging to obtain a mark recapture based estimate of the size of the black bear population in the Northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan (Northern Lacustrine-Influenced Lower Michigan Ecoregion). In summer 2003, we set a total of 239 hair snares across the Northern Lower Peninsula, and checked snares at 5-7 day intervals. We had 5 checking occasions in 2003. We collected 1,144 hair samples from 122 of 239 (51.1%) hair snares visited by bears. Additionally, we collected DNA samples from all but 2 of the 452 bears harvested in the Lower Peninsula. Analysis of the spatially-explicit genotype data from 2002 confirmed
that the black bear population in our study area is essentially closed. However, we found through genotyping hair and tissue samples from identical harvested bears that the genotyping error rate for 2002 was approximately 5% per locus. We created a model to simulate the effect of this rate of genotyping errors on population estimates. We found that a 5% per locus genotyping error rate results in approximately a 50% bias in population estimates. Therefore, we did not feel confident in the estimates generated from hair and tissue samples collected in 2002. We attribute this large genotyping error rate to the long duration between collection and genetic analysis of hair samples and trying to obtain genotypes from hair samples with less than 5 hair follicles. The extraction protocol was changed in 2003. DNA is extracted from all usable samples within 7 days of collection. Additionally we only extracted DNA from hair samples that had 5 or more follicles.
Impacts
Wildlife related industries are critical to the local and state-wide economies in Michigan. Wildlife related recreation is important to the quality of life of Michigan's citizens. Efficient management of wildlife resources requires precise and accurate data on population demographics. The Michigan Department of Natural Resources has used our findings to improve the quality of the their white-tailed deer, black bear and moose management programs. Results have been used by multiple state agencies to set management regulations to help manage an outbreak of bovine TB in free ranging white-tailed deer.
Publications
- Hughey, B. 2003. Are there "hot Spots" of bovine tuberculosis in the free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) herd of northeastern Michigan. Unpublished Thesis. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University.
- Larson, M.A., Clark, M.E., Winterstein, S.R. 2003. Survival and habitat of ruffed grouse nests in northern Michigan. Wilson Bulletin 115(2):140 - 147.
- Muzo, D.2003. Movement of white-tailed deer from a bovine tuberculosis infected population under baiting and winter feeding restrictions and TB status of black bears in Michigan. Unpublished Thesis. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University.
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Progress 01/01/02 to 12/31/02
Outputs
The Wildlife Surveys Project initiated in 1999 was completed in 2002. The primary objective of this study was to examine the field survey methodologies used to provide the information needed to manage white-tailed deer in Michigan. Each survey was evaluated for its value to wildlife managers, the quality and validity of the data it produces, and the cost and time commitment required. Six primary methodologies were examined: deer-vehicle accidents, deer lactation, winter severity index, check station biodata, traffic survey and pellet group survey. It was determined that all of the survey methods could be improved by updating the database management systems and protocols, improving the standardization of the procedures, increasing sample sizes and updating equipment and protocols to make use of new technologies. The Deer/TB Project (1996 - 2002) examined the behavior of white-tailed deer at fall baiting and winter feeding sites and documented deer migration and
movement patterns. In 1994 bovine tuberculosis (TB) was discovered in white-tailed deer in MI. To date over 400 infected deer have been detected in MI. Close face-to-face contacts at fall bait piles and winter feeding stations likely provided for the possible increased spread of bovine TB throughout the herd by bringing infected animals into contact with a larger number of individual deer. Baiting and feeding of deer in infected counties is now illegal and there is no evidence of dramatic shifts in the movement or migratory patterns following the institution of a ban on fall baiting and winter feeding. Following the feeding and baiting ban, we documented an apparent return to more typical movement behaviors - behaviors dominated by winter weather conditions, not by the size and composition of feed piles. A continuing Moose Research Project is examining discrepancies between population estimates derived from a deterministic model and from aerial surveys. The objectives of the study are
to estimate age-specific rates of pregnancy and natality, sex- and age-specific rates of mortality, and dispersal rates. Over 1500 locations were obtained for 84 radio-collared moose. Annual survival of adults was greater than 85% and first-year calf survival was greater than 70%. Reproductive success (74% of adult cows pregnant) was lower than expected and the dispersal rate (6%) was higher than expected. Preliminary analyses suggest that these two factors have combined to produce the slower than predicted population growth.
Impacts
Wildlife related industries (e.g., deer hunting, elk and moose viewing) are critical to the local and state-wide economies in Michigan. Efficient management of wildlife resources, particularly in an environment of shrinking budgets and reduced field staffs, requires precise and accurate data on population demographics. The Michigan Department of Natural Resources has used our findings to improve the quality of the data collected in their field surveys (e.g., data collection sites were added to under-represented areas of the state) and the cost effectiveness of the survey process (e.g., ineffective, outdated surveys were terminated). Results have been used by multiple state agencies to set management regulations to eradicate bovine TB in free ranging white-tailed deer.
Publications
- Blanchong, J.A., K. T. Scribner, and S.R. Winterstein. 2002. Assignment of individuals to populations: Bayesian methods and multi-locus genotypes. J. Wildlife Manage. 66(2):321-329.
- Dodge, W.B. 2002. Population dynamics of moose in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, 1999 - 2001. Unpublished Thesis. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University.
- Heimerl, E.L. 2002. An evaluation of the Michigan Department of Natural Resources traffic survey and alternative proposals to provide an early estimate of the firearm deer season harvest. Unpublished Thesis. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University.
- O'Brien, D. J., et. al. 2002. Epidemiology of Mycobacterium bovis in free-ranging white-tailed deer, Michigan, USA, 1995 - 2000. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 54:47-63.
- Panken, S.L. 2002. An examination of population-level quality indices as a measure of White-tailed Deer (Odocoileus virginianus) herd condition in Michigan Unpublished Thesis. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University.
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Progress 01/01/01 to 12/31/01
Outputs
The Wildlife Surveys Project was initiated in 1999 to examine the field survey methodologies used to provide information needed to manage white-tailed deer in MI. Three methodologies, check station biodata (completed), traffic survey (continuing) and pellet group survey (continuing) were examined this year. Approximately 30,000 deer are examined at voluntary check stations each year. These are the primary data available on the physical characteristics (sex, age, antler points, average beam diameter, lactation status), harvest method (archery, firearm, muzzle loader) and harvest location (county, township, range, section) for hunter harvested deer. Increasing the number of check stations per county increases the number of deer checked in that county, but results in an overall decrease in the percentage of deer checked at highway check stations. The biodata are biased toward older bucks and some areas of the state continue to be under-represented. The traffic survey is
used to provide a rapid estimate of the magnitude of the firearm season harvest. The harvest estimates produced by regression models must be adjusted by expert opinion of MDNR wildlife biologists to meet the desired precision. Pellet group counts are used in the northern portions of the state to estimate the size of the deer herd. The pellet group survey provides a valid index, but poor estimate, of herd size because some model inputs cannot be accurately measured. The Deer/TB Project examined the behavior of white-tailed deer at fall baiting and winter feeding sites and documented deer migration and movement patterns. In 1994 bovine tuberculosis (TB) was discovered in white-tailed deer in MI. To date over 350 infected deer have been detected in MI. Close face-to-face contacts at fall bait piles and winter feeding stations were documented, verifying that baiting and winter feeding provide an avenue for transmission of bovine TB among deer. There is no evidence of dramatic shifts in
the movement or migratory patterns following the institution of a ban on fall baiting and winter feeding. Preliminary results suggest that the percentage of migratory deer in the herd did not increase, nor did migratory distance increase following the ban. Following the baiting and feeding ban, deer that dispersed from their natal area occupied larger home ranges than did those deer that dispersed prior to the ban. A Moose Research Project is being conducted to explain discrepancies between population estimates derived from a deterministic model and from aerial surveys. The objectives of the study are to estimate age-specific rates of pregnancy and natality, sex- and age-specific rates of mortality, and dispersal rates. Thirty-one of 42 adult radio-collared moose were determined to be pregnant and 24 adult cows were visually verified as giving birth to 28 calves. Seven radio-tagged moose died during the past year. 1268 locations of moose were obtained during 97 aerial re-location
flights. 231 ground re-locations were obtained. Six moose moved significant distances from where they were routinely re-located during the winter.
Impacts
Research results will insure the quality of the data collected in wildlife field surveys, improve the cost effectiveness of the survey process, and improve the management of the state's natural resources (particularly white-tailed deer and moose). Results have been used by multiple state agencies to set management regulations to eradicate bovine TB in free ranging white-tailed deer.
Publications
- Cook, S.L. 2001. An evaluation of the Michigan Department of Natural Resources' white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) field survey methodologies. Unpublished Thesis. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University.
- Garner, M.S. 2001. Movement patterns and behavior at winter feeding and fall baiting stations in a population of white-tailed deer infected with bovine tuberculosis in the northeastern Lower Peninsula of Michigan. Unpublished Dissertation. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University.
- Larson, M.A., Clark M., Winterstein, S.R. 2001. Survival of ruffed grouse chicks in northern Michigan. Journal of Wildlife Management 65:880-886.
- Winterstein, S.R., Pollock, K.H., Bunck, C.S. 2001. Analysis of survival data from radio telemetry studies. Pages 351- 380. in Radio Telemetry and Animal Populations (Millspaugh, J., Marzluff, J. eds.). Academic Press, San Diego, CA.
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Progress 01/01/00 to 12/31/00
Outputs
In the first year of the MI Ruffed Grouse Project, grouse in sites closed to hunting had higher survival than did those in sites open to hunting. In the other 4 years, survival in the sites open to hunting was comparable to survival in the sites closed to hunting. Avian predation was the leading cause of mortality. In 3 of the 4 sites, birds that chose high quality ranges lived significantly longer than did birds that chose low quality ranges. The amount of young aspen within activity ranges positively affected survival in 3 of the 4 study sites. The Wildlife Surveys Project was initiated in 1999 to examine the field survey methodologies used to provide the information needed to manage white-tailed deer in MI. Evaluation of three methodologies (deer-vehicle accidents, deer lactation and winter severity index (WSI)) has been conducted. Regression models were developed to related annual buck harvest to deer-vehicle accidents and other variables. Lactation data collected
during October are useful as a minimum estimate of lactation rates and data from the firearm season can be used as an index of annual reproductive success. The current WSI, because it often represented different time periods within and among years, was replaced with a corrected-WSI that represented the same time period for every year. No population parameters were significantly correlated with the corrected-WSI for all regions. The Deer/TB Project examined the behavior of white-tailed deer at fall baiting and winter feeding sites and documented deer migration and movement patterns. In 1994 bovine tuberculosis (TB) was discovered in white-tailed deer in MI. To date over 275 infected deer have been detected in MI. The hypothesized mode of deer-to-deer transmission of bovine TB is from close face-to-face contact at feeding stations. Close face-to-face contacts at fall bait piles and winter feeding stations were documented, verifying that baiting and winter feeding provide an avenue for
transmission of bovine TB among deer. Deer did not restrict their activities to only one feeding station throughout the winter or to only one bait station throughout the fall. This behavior provides for the possible increased spread of bovine TB throughout the herd by bringing infected animals into contact with a larger number of individual deer. There is no evidence of a change in movement and migratory patterns prior to and following the 1998 ban on winter feeding. A Moose Research Project is being conducted to explain discrepancies between population estimates derived from a deterministic model and from aerial surveys. The objectives of the study are to estimate age-specific rates of pregnancy and natality, sex- and age-specific rates of mortality, and dispersal rates. Nineteen of 27 adult radio-collared moose were determined to be pregnant and 18 adult cows were visually verified as giving birth to 19 calves. Thirteen radio-tagged moose died during the past year. One thousand
twenty-six locations of moose were obtained during 80 aerial re-location flights. 113 ground re-locations were obtained. Four moose moved significant distances from where they were routinely re-located during the winter.
Impacts
Research results will insure the quality of the data collected in wildlife field surveys, improve the cost effectiveness of the survey process, and improve the management of the state's natural resources (particularly ruffed grouse, white-tailed deer and moose). Results have been used by multiple state agencies to set management regulations to eradicate bovine TB in free ranging white-tailed deer.
Publications
- Clark, M.E., 2000. Survival, fall movements, and habitat use of hunted and non-hunted ruffed grouse in northern Michigan. Unpublished Dissertation. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University.
- Peyton, R.B., Liu, J., Holsman, R., McDonald, A., Kress,K., Winterstein, S.R., and Campa III, H. 2000. Foundations of ecosystem management: Integrating sociological and ecological components. Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station. Special Report 109:1-15.
- Yaunches, G., Winterstein, S.R., Campa III, H., Kernohan, B.J., and Haufler, J.B. 2000. Herpetofaunal abundance and distribution in northern Minnesota: Contributions of ecological land units and assessment of sampling methodology. Jour. Iowa. Acad. Sci. 107:206-208.
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Progress 01/01/99 to 12/31/99
Outputs
Progress for 3 research projects (Ruffed Grouse, Wildlife Surveys, and Deer/TB) is reported herein. The MI Ruffed Grouse Project was initiated in 1992 to determine the effects of hunting mortality on ruffed grouse population dynamics. We created marked populations of grouse in areas open to hunting and in areas closed to hunting. 525 grouse were collared in the open sites and 546 in the closed ones. Avian mortality was generally the largest source of mortality. Across the five years of the study, we found no consistent evidence that hunting negatively impacts overall survival. The Wildlife Surveys project was initiated in 1999 to examine the field survey methodologies used to provide the information needed to manage white-tailed deer in MI. Each survey is being evaluated for its value to wildlife managers, the quality and validity of the data it produces, and the cost and time commitment required. To date, background information has been gathered on field survey
methodologies and how they are used in the literature and by agencies in other states. Evaluation of the statistical validity of two methodologies (deer-vehicle accidents and deer lactation ) has begun. Bibliographies were prepared for deer-vehicle accidents and the use of deer lactation data as an estimator and/or index. Regression models have been developed to related the annual buck harvest to deer - vehicle accidents and other explanatory variables. We examined the distribution and abundance of the lactation data (1993 - 1998) to determine the accuracy of the data, how the data could be used in deer population management, and on what temporal and geographic scales the data provide the most accurate and useful information. Results of the analyses are presented in a report currently under editorial review by MDNR. The primary objective of the Deer/TB project was to examine the behavior of white-tailed deer at fall baiting and winter feeding sites and to document deer migration and
movement patterns. In 1994 bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) was discovered in white-tailed deer in northeastern MI. To date there have been over 150 infected white-tailed deer detected in the northern Lower Peninsula. Wildlife managers hypothesize that the primary mode of deer-to-deer transmission of M. bovis if from close face-to-face contact feeding stations. Observations (n=350+ observation periods) at winter feeding piles confirmed high numbers of close face-to-face contact. Harsher conditions during the 1996/1997 winter resulted in more close face-to-face contacts (average = 28.1 per observation period) than during the milder 1997/1998 winter (average = 8.5 per observation period). Observations (n=2150+ observation periods in 1997) at fall bait piles confirmed moderate numbers of close face-to-face contact (average = 3.0 per observation period). A comparison of movement and migratory patterns prior to and following the 1998 ban on winter feeding will be conducted when
seasonal movement and home range maps have been generated for all radio collared deer.
Impacts
Research results will insure the quality of the data collected in wildlife field surveys, improve the cost effectiveness of the survey process, and improve the management of the state's natural resources (particularly ruffed grouse and white-tailed deer). Results have been used by multiple state agencies to set management regulations to eradicate bovine TB in free ranging white-tailed deer.
Publications
- Wasilco, M. 1999. Factors affecting bird use of wetlands created for mitigation. Unpublished Thesis. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University.
- Hamady, M. 1999. An ecosystem approach to assessing the effects of disturbance on forest birds on the northern hardwood forest in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Unpublished Dissertation. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University.
- Xie, J.H., Hill, R., Winterstein, S.R., Campa III, H., Doepker, R.V., Van Deelen, T.R., Liu, J. 1999. White-tailed deer management options model (DeerMOM): design, quantification, and application. Ecological Modeling 124:121-130.
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